Skies of Arcadia Mafia - Game Over! Indy (AM) Wins!

[#HBC | J]

It's time for you to hang, J. Post incoming.

No offense, but bring it, I am not going down without a fight, especially when you are wrong on me this time.

 

[Aggressive Mediation]

Heh, but of course.

 

[Aggressive Mediation]

Why were you afraid LAK was recruited?

 

[#HBC | J]

Because he was held mainly as one of the single most obv-town players in the game D1/D2 by everyone sans Gheb. Gheb was the only one to express suspicion on that slot so I feel LAK was up there with MarshMan/LAK/JTB/Soup to be recruited.

 

[#HBC | J]

Plus, in my mind, I would pick someone like LAK to be recruited if I was the recruiter. LAK would not have been a name that many people would have thrown around as a possibility as being on of the "obv-candidates" when there are players like me and Marshy would deffo be considered bigger candidates after our play D1/D2 and then there is Soup who derped into a bunch of town-points D2 and who's play has been really good this game after that point (and it has flowed into his play toDay as well) and then JTB after his Rockin thing yesterDay has still be considered obv-town by other players so he would also make a good candidate (however, same problem as Soup, his play has continously remained obv-town to toDay).

I am trying to look through the recruitment logic as "What would I do if I could recruit someone?" I don't fault the logic that I was probably on the higher end of the totem pole to be recruited, but the fact is I was not recrutied and the logic to suggest that I was recruited is driving me bonkers. However, at this point, I am not focusing on delving into the paranoia anymore of one of my town-reads being converted because if that is the case, I will hopefully be able to figure it all out soon in terms of being able to decipher if they are scum or not in terms of how their play has gone. I am going back to how I originally play and that is focus on individual's scummy behaviour and also how they reacted to players in the previous day-phases.

Long EBWOP, but felt it needed more explanation.

Alright I'm out for the night, going out with friends now.

 

[~ Gheb ~]

Gonna respond to J's wall later but this just in: I NEVER CAST SUSPICION ON LAK HOLY ****ING ****. It seriously annoys the **** out of me how people still act like I did. If there's one thing I'm going to ask of you then it's to stop acting like I ever mentioned him as a scummy slot.

 

[Aggressive Mediation]

Lost my damn post because I'm switching between computers fairly often here. Will probably have to wait until I get back to the house to make a long one.

Short stuff coming.

 

[Aggressive Mediation]

J, you have had me on your list of possible scummies since before this day phase started. Why drop me cold, especially when I've been going after you at least as hard as Gheb, agreed vocally with most everything he's said, and outed your freaking role?

It's not that you aren't pushing me as scum that is my problem, but you've just left that read to sit when that is something that's had waaaaaaay too much influx of information that should push it one way or another. Why do you sit on that read?

Similarly, KevMo has been poked at a fair amount here. He's even posted some in response, however, you only make a sidelong comment about him and never return to it.

And Orbo I'll get to in my next post.

 

[Aggressive Mediation]

For the record, I saw the why Orbo as recruiter question and I'll get to it.

Read on Orbo is null. There is literally nothing to go off on of his posts alone. The only thing that sticks out to me in terms of connecting Gorf+Orbo is a post Gorf made about being on the Orbo wagon "in spirit" and him not making the commitment to lynching Orbo when the motion came up and instead tried to hide behind the other wagon members.

Speaking of which, I had to re-quote something from D1 and I am sad that we didn't lynch Gorf D1 when I was pushing him so hard. =[

Lynching Orbo gives me vibes that we are just pulling another thing that we did with Nabe D1 where we literally had scum on the other chopping block and decided to lynch the inactive person who could "possibly be lurking scum".

So, you have him at null and that's the only possible connection you have between him and Gorf based on Gorf's behaviour. Interesting.

So, you get absolutely NOTHING from the fact that, when pressured, Gorf flipped onto Rockin hard instead of Orbo, who was his big scum read. You gain absolutely nothing from Gorf's night action? You do not believe that his play has been scummy. You believe he's simply a null lurker who we shouldn't lynch because you're worried that we have bigger fish to fry. When, may I ask then, should we deal with him?

Another thing that gets me thinking is the potion dilemna, it's entirely WIFOM and I can't make ends or tails of it in terms of whether it was scum trying to be clever with trying to make Orbo look good on a GorfScum flip or Orbo was just town being silly.

Btw, on the topic of potions, I got one last night. Idk if I said this or not yet but I didn't get anything told as to what it was or anything and the reason why the night phase took so long was because I was debating on accepting or declining it. I accepted it in the end.

Can't make heads or tails of it, huh? All WIFOM, huh? I see. No way at all to determine motivation? I disagree, as seen below.

What could GorfScum have been doing visiting OrboTown?

This is also something that doesn't make sense at all either. Why would GorfScum be going after OrboTown in terms of giving him a potion?

This game is confusing, even when we do end up lynching scum.

Really, huh? Doesn't make sense? I wonder. I guess it could be because Orbo is scum.

Why are you tearing your hair out to avoid even confronting the possibility? I refuse to believe that you've seen nothing when most everyone else in the game willing to off him. Give me any reason at all to doubt that Orbo is scum. Something! Being "entirely null but with a connection to GorfScum" is also called "being connected to GorfScum, but having no town points in my book to bail me out."

Talk to me about Gorf's night action. Give me a scenario plausibile enough to do away with that solid connection.

 

[Marshmellowman]

What scummy BS? I haven't been scummy at all.

lmfao

gheb is so full of ****. wheres a real dayvig when you need one

 

[Marshmellowman]

do you still think its possible that lak was recruited j?

 

[Aggressive Mediation]

That is an interesting train of thought I have been playing with (when talking about the recruiter), but what makes you think Orbo is the recruiter or the fact that Orbo was possibly recruited?

I've never said Orbo was possibly recruited. In fact, he's the one player sans myself that I find least likely to have been recruited. He is scum based on Gorf's flip. That confirms him mafia. The reason I think he is the recruiter is based in set-up analysis working off of the following premises.

1.) Orbo is Gorf's scummate.
2.) Raz did not include and Stew did not let slide 5 scum in a 13 man small game (unless we're dealing with indy lovers or some such).
3.) Raz/Stew didn't include a cult in a game with a confirmed mafia.

The first I've already explained why I believe is true. The second is based on set-up analysis. The third is based on just how much I've talked to Stew and to DGames Skype in general about how bad a role cult is and the fact that the set-up apparently allows for multiple no kills which makes it insanely easy for a cultist never to flip given how much control cult exerts on majority as they near the point where they could be in danger of being lynched.

These are three facts that we're working with that lead to the conclusion.

Working within these assumptions, the only possibilities that make sense for a set-up (and I assume an at least somewhat balanced set-up otherwise we get boned by the set-up and I don't feel bad anyway) the reasonable possibilities I see are:

3 maf (with recruiter). No indy.
2 maf (with recruiter). One indy.
2 maf (no recruiter). Some form of limited recruit indy.

I find the third option extremely unlikely as it would be some sort of indy I've never seen before.

The first option is possible, but not likely given DGames' boner for indies.

The second seems MUCH more likely to me and would make the most sense. That's the scummies I'm thinking about right now. With Gorf flipping scum night one, that leaves the only possible mafiat left (since he and Orbo are assumed aligned) to be Orbo. That means Orbo is the recruiter. J has acted like he has been recruited since the start of the phase, as I pointed out and Gheb elaborated on. J treads REALLY lightly around Orbo and that does nothing to dissuade me.



So yes, I've done a lot of set-up analysis to help me form my reads, but none of my alignment reads are based solely in set-up analysis.



Feel free to poke at my analysis and ask questions or propose something I may have missed. I've probably thought of it and dismissed it as very unlikely for some reason or another.

 

[Aggressive Mediation]

Leaving work. Back later.

 

[Marshmellowman]

ill be here tonight

that means votes should go back on rockin

shut the **** up and read the thread

 

[Marshmellowman]

umwhat @ lego declaring vla? xonar posts everywhere in dgames but here

wish j was confirmed town so we could finally get rid of gheb

/waits for gheb to come in here buttfrustrated

 

[#HBC | marshy]

i can tell that if j is still town and dies town has pretty much lost this ****

 

[Marshmellowman]

gheb you should die

now please come in here and tell me ive been off this game after our voting historys been the same and i was right about j/lak when you werent again

 

[Marshmellowman]

i can tell that if j is still town and dies town has pretty much lost this ****

quote

 

[Marshmellowman]

vote gheb

 

[Marshmellowman]

your *** ****ing better be scum gheb. your robotic play and ignoring of context coupled with selective scumhunting

 

[KevinM]

go for it if you think itd help town am tho i feel like you guysll just hit the nail on the head. i personally want legos take on it first tho

quick question for kevin: youre questioning the orbo wagon for it being easy for scum to hop. cant similar be said for rockin? what is the difference between orbo and rockin here?

Is this a serious question? Orbo has literally produced no content and hasn't posted for 5 days where as Rockin has at least thrown his stint about how he's not claiming and also has been posting periodically.

 

[KevinM]

catching up still just saw that.

 

[Marshmellowman]

it is indeed a serious question. rockins behavior this dayphase doesnt change him being an easy lynch

 

[KevinM]

I agree, but comparing him to Orbo is a bit of a stretch and something you could only use to try and misconstrue the purpose of what I said.

Orbo and Rockin are both easy lynches but not to the same extent.

 

[Marshmellowman]

youre saying i could only use it to misconstrue what you said but ignoring the possibility that im trying to get you to take stances and try to find [in]consistencies with how you deal with 2 players whove been thrown around as potential lynches all game. not that i cant understand your point about their differences

started typing up a response to gheb but im not done yet. has your pool changed at all since the masons claim gheb?

 

[~ Gheb ~]

lmfao

gheb is so full of ****. wheres a real dayvig when you need one

Yo **** yourself, I've literally done nothing scummy. The only thing that could be considered suspect is my 'push' against LAK, which never happened in the way people seem to think it did, other than that I've been behind like every wagon that gave us info so far and done no anti-town actions. You're ******** if you think I'm anywhere near a play, just because J has a mason claim doesn't mean he hasn't been scummy as ****, even his case against me is full of obvscum. I still think there's a good chance that he could be scum and the 'ignoring context' accusation is completely baseless and reeks of an excuse to join the wagon. If you have nothing to say then shut the **** up. I'm *not* a play.

 

[~ Gheb ~]

started typing up a response to gheb but im not done yet. has your pool changed at all since the masons claim gheb?

Not dramatically. I just feel saver lynching Orb toDay than J who still has a good chance of having been recruited and plays like super-obvscum still. LAK is also still a major parasite and his death can *never* be a bad thing for town. So instead of

J / Orbo
AM
LAK

it becomes:

Orb
J
LAK / AM

 

[(:xXx11!1!LegOLAAAzz!!11XxX:)]

Yeah I'm not VLA. I just haven't bothered with this game too much. Let me read up a bit.

 

[(:xXx11!1!LegOLAAAzz!!11XxX:)]

Oh right, first of all, Sword and me discussed this whole alignment changer thing, and we concluded that it would be better to go after the original(s) and keep our town reads for now. We have had more time to get a feel for them and it would also be way more convenient.

That said, we agree that J's play has been off today more so than D1 and D2 from what we've read.

Page 24.

 

[(:xXx11!1!LegOLAAAzz!!11XxX:)]

@legolas if we aren't going rockin which one of kev/gheb do you want, i want gheb more tbh

As of this post, I'm likin' Kev more.

 

[(:xXx11!1!LegOLAAAzz!!11XxX:)]

as in, I like him more than Gheb. So I'd go Gheb.

goddamnit prematurely posting

 

[(:xXx11!1!LegOLAAAzz!!11XxX:)]

Vote: Aggressive Mediation

Okay townbros time to win the game i've decided

What?

I mean, I don't usually comment on stuff before a full read
but... what?

 

[~ Gheb ~]

I am shocked mainly because of you trying to say that I had never previously justified my LegoScum read from previous phases because that is something I definitely did and was the one who got the case on Gorf going. And more so when you posted this:

Right after I posted that wall shows that you had knowledge of it previously and decided to either A.) Have temporary Amnesia or B.) Selectively choose to forget about the glaring contradiction.

Oh my god I misremembered your case on Lego that's soooooooo shocking, there's no other way, it just has to be scummy, right?! Seriously gtfo, the amount of exaggeration in this point is straight-up disgusting. There's nothing 'shocking' about it, not even for an AtE-monster like you so stop making a big deal out of something so minor. What's more important is that you fail to show how it's actually related to me supposedly being scum - you just pick the more sinister [and infinitely less likely] implicaton of my posts and blow it out of proportion for the sake of making your case look bigger than it is. No, I did not intend to 'misconstrue' your action and I'd be an idiot if I claimed that you have never pushed a case on Lego when I know how easily it could be proven. Hence why I even said 'I can't remember you pushing a case on him'. Let's stick a bit more to the fact and not take the most sinister interpretation out of a point and blow it out of proportion like that. No, I did not say that you never pushed a Lego case because I'm such an evil, evil scumbag who wants to denounce you and make you look like a scumbag in the most clumsy and obvious manner, I said I *don't remember you* making a case on Lego because I didn't remember.

That was not OMGUS from MarshMan. Marshman has been on Lego all game, what?

It was still OMGUS. Marsh only fosed him because Lego had mentioned him as a likely recruitee, which I already pointed out is a legitimate thought. Stop buddying Marsh already, he's blind enough to your scummy *** anyways.

You are seriously twisting my lynch pool into something that looks a lot worse than it actually is.

I have even stated recently that I don't wish to lynch Rockin. I've had you/KevinM/AM on my good plays list since yesterDay and in my mind, the best possibly recruiters would be my two biggest town reads which are Marshy/LAK. I don't feel like lynching Soup/JTB at all because they are pretty much equally strong if not stronger town reads. Here is a better portrayl of how my reads actually look and the like:

Yet you decided to vote him anyway, to support the wagon on a player that you could not see as scum and let the wagon go down to L-2 in an alarmingly short period of time. You say 'you don't wish to lynch him' but facing the fact around the wagon and comments like 'bye-bye Rockin' I have no reason to believe you. There's something wrong when your words and your actions mismatch as much as they do now.

Right, that's a pool of 5 players that you put in relationship to scum in addition to evidently being OK with Rockin lynched [no arguing from your side will change this fact btw so just admit / drop it] so you're pretty much OK with more than half of the roster being lynched or at least you see a relationship to scum in them. If that's not a distinctively sharp contrast to your play during the previous Days where you hardly mentioned more scumreads than Lego and myself then you need better arguments to hide this fact.

So looking at the facts again and at your counter-point, I really don't see how I twisted your lynchpool at all. In fact, you confirmed to me that five out of the six people I mentioned *are* [or at least have been] lynches you would've been OK with. And just because you say that you didn't wish to lynch Rockin doesn't mean that you would've had a problem with lynching him so bottom like is that I did *not* twist *anything* about your lynchpool *at all*

Since when have you been okay with AM going? Also with out mason-claim, you literally lose two of your scum-picks(in my eyes) and that leaves you with Orbo, which you have clung to/not really done much with all game and tried to construe his null as heck posts as scummy and then this somewhat arbritrary AM suspicion that comes out of nowehere WHICH you have now decided to brush aside and started to work together with AM....what in the world are you doing?

1.) I became OK with AM going since the start of Day 1, when I realized how useless he had been up to that point and I'm still wary about him toDay considering how awkward it is of him to pretty much match my reads 100% when we usually disagree on like everything. I'm not sure if he just wants to gain credibility upon my town flip or something else but overall I feel like he's not a bad play.

2.) Your mason claim doesn't clear either of you. LAK is *not* a scumpick of mine and has never been and I still think there's a good chance that you are scum. My lynchpool is still approximately the same except that Orb is my prefered play toDay now but the order is still Orb > J > AM / LAK to me unless you start playing pro-town and make sense again. In that list LAK is the only non-scum read but he's such a damn bloodsucker that it's impossible for him to not be a decent lynch.

3.) I am *not* working together with AM at all and I have *not* brushed aside my suspicions against him. Stick to the FACTS and don't tell me fairy-tales it's no wonder that you're so terribly off this game if you start composing your own little history into everything that happens. I do think there's a solid chance that AM is scum and the fact that he tries to make it seem like we're 'acting together' is exactly what bothers me.

You were trying to throw me in as not only a recruitment possibility, but also as possible one of the original scummers and just trying to justify my lynch in any terms possible to help you get rid of me. So this logic is also thrown out, now that you know I am a mason which kind of just puts a foot into your own mouth here. You are also trying to set me up for a lynch toMorrow and do sort of a lynch line of "Orbo>J, let's just get it done, doesn't matter the order, they should just die." instead of actually looking at things through a bigger picture.

This is all wrong. Yet again you only look at the worst implication possible and ignore the more realistic scenarios. Look at the points I made against you once more. Virtually all of them apply not just in case you have been recruited but also in case you were scum from the very start as well. That's not "trying to justify my lynch in any terms possible to help you get rid of me", that's "applying simple logic". Your play was extremely scummy all Day regardless of the recruiter. You're still scummy and there's still a good chance that you were recruited so I still have you in my lynchpool. Just not as #1 because Ryu can confirm that you weren't part of the mafia from the very start.

You fail at discussing points *objectively* as soon as they are directed at you becuase you still take everything as a personal attack and thus only look at the worst implication instead of what's realistic. There were times where it seemed that you have moved beyond this unawareness but right now you're falling back into it pretty hard and your play suffers big time from it. Look at my points and responses again and try to understand the *realistic* interpretations and implications of it, not the one that makes you feel comfortable attacking 'that guy who is bad because he attacks me'.

 

[~ Gheb ~]

1.) I became OK with AM going since the start of Day 1, when I realized how useless he had been up to that point

EBWOP: Meant to say Day 2 ofc.

 

[(:xXx11!1!LegOLAAAzz!!11XxX:)]

Readlist in order from scum to town:

Orbo - The Gorf connection is strong. His play is, admittedly characteristically, weak. I pointed out where my read shifted from null to scum based on Day 2 and a Gorf flip seals it. If I had a gun, this is where I would point it and I wouldn't waste much time in doing so.

J - J's my second biggest pick. I hate his play today and I will dig into it when I'm not at work with the threat of having to close out of a post hanging over my thread the entire time. J, however, doesn't need to go today when there's DEFINITELY enough support for a Rockin lynch and probably enough for an Orbo lynch. Especially with the possibility of mafia mentor (which would explain the no kills) or some bull****. J is the recruited scum, not scum from throughout the game (except if indy maybe????).

Rockin - Rockin was on my scum list before for generic scum tells. He's been on every bandwagon this game and I've shown where he's doubled back before. He's contradicted himself backward and forward. His play toDay has been ****. I hate where he doesn't want to claim despite being VERY obviously on the chopping block. Needs to go. Needs to go fast.

KevMo - I hate KevMo. I just hate others more. I'm not going to pretend this read is more solid than it is. I need to go in and read him more closely because I've had him pretty much written off on my list since Day 1.

LAK - Null. Don't remember anything. I'd have to go looking.

Gheb - I like him more of late, but he ends the group of three reads I'm not confident on. I could just like him because he's agreeing with what I'm saying and I know the logic is sound. I need to analyze what potential scum gain Gheb has to see the read pan out, but I honestly don't think he's gonna turn scum without me being completely offbase on multiple reads given how much else I have that takes priority. That won't happen.

Legolas - Same reasons as yesterday with the disclaimer that he could possibly be recruited if I'm wrong about J. I don't think I'm wrong about J. As it stands, I haven't seen enough from him this phase to say with certainty that he isn't scum, but I don't find it likely.

Soup - Town. Wrong, but town. Read carries over from yesterday. Similar disclaimer as Lego's.

JTB - Obv town. Even today I like JTB as town. I cannot fathom how he has J as town, but that's my only major issue with him.

MarshMellowMan - Town. Not recruited. I've liked him this day phase more than anyone else on the cast during this phase. I REALLY liked where he snapped at Kevin. Made me feel good.

This might as well been my post. Though currently, I'd put Gheb more towards town than here. KeviM's more recent posts today have also been pretty okay.

Can't we just all sheep AM? His thought process is nearly identical to mine. (even when more elaborate but hey dat skimming)

Both sides agree that Orbo is the best lynch.

Vote: Orbo
Did not see a L-1 declaration, so this should be cool.

 

[(:xXx11!1!LegOLAAAzz!!11XxX:)]

I feel awkward for not having anything to respond too, though. Ohwell.

 

[Marshmellowman]

heres something to analyze: if lak was recruited scum mason why would he out his role the way he just did?

for lego

 

[Marshmellowman]

#1131 is where lak claims mason. a few posts before the one i quoted

 

[Marshmellowman]

Yo **** yourself

lol

you have both masons in your lynchpool. i dont even how to react to this

your being stuck on lak as such a garbage player that hes a decent play is weird. in epic rap battles i vaguely remember you bombing on zen cuz you thought he was trash but you at least attempted to deduce his alignment there and never suggested him as a play i believe

 

[~ Gheb ~]

I died ****ing N1 in erb - there was no way for me to know how Zen's play would've turned out that game but after I called him out right off the bat I saw legitimate attempts at doing *something* from Zen's side. Where has LAK been doing that? Oh wait he didn't, all he did was insult me for legitimately calling out his abysmal play, which so far consisted of doing nothing at all other than being wrong about everything. I was about to give him the same **** for his truly awful play in erb and even wanted him lynched in that game and I don't see why my attitude should change with how he plays this game in mind.

Yes, I have both masons in my lynchpool. One can die at anytime for his dreadful play and the other is a major suspect of being recruited, backed up by his exceedingly scummy play toDay - just the Day phase after the recruitment was confirmed to happen. I'm not disregarding options just because they claimed masons, which frankly doesn't mean ****. You yourself said that your town reads from the previous Days were worthless at the beginning of this Day phase because of the recruitment. So why does a mason claim of all things change your mind all of a sudden.