So I guess I'm answering both parts.
"he's getting in": I believe Vergeben. While some would say he's just guessing, I don't think so. He was able to predict not only Ridley, but when he was revealed, and Simon, who nobody would have guessed would get in had it not been for Vergeben. And while some say "oh he's being vague", I personally think he's just trying to play it safe, just in case any of his sources did give him false info. But that time hasn't come yet, if it will at all.
"he's filling the indie role/he's staling her slot": I honestly don't know if he's being counted as indie. It's up to Sakurai to see how it is. However, if Steve does get in, Shantae's support could possibly drop, since some of the people who wanted her in because she's indie are satisfied with MC. Flimsy reasoning, I know, but I can't shake the feeling.
I have trouble convincing myself to be positive. Regardless, I'm happy that there are optimistic supporters, since guys like that are what led to characters like Daisy, Chrom and King K. Rool getting in. However, I have trouble thinking about further Smash games because they might not even exist.
For those of you who haven't given up hope: keep going so that maybe you can prove me wrong.
Please hold on, Dylly!