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Roster Prediction Discussion Thread

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Johnknight1

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He said "was." Waluigi was VERY popular pre-brawl. That's what he was referring to.
And Waluigi is in Mario spin-off titles, which are extremely popular. Thus, he has got to soak up some of the popularity for better or worse.

However, that popularity does not translate into popular request for Smash Bros. That largely died out pre-Brawl when most people "figured out" it was a bland idea that could be easily outclassed by several dozen other potential playable characters that are Nintendo owned in regards to how unique they would be as playable smash bros characters.
 

Shroob

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The problem with Waluigi is he's a walking bad plot point. The evil double for the sake of having one. Mario has Wario, so Luigi obviously needs one too, which is totally wrong. Wario has been able to grow and become his own character, while Waluigi is stuck in spinoff titles.
 

Johnknight1

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Oh trust me, I saw him when Toon Link was announced, I'll know when he's excited.
My excited and "urgh!" posting is similar.

I just got out of my Federal Tax Income Accounting Class 2 1/2 hours ago. That class is somehow far worse than it sounds.

Let me tell you that if you open that book for that class, it is like opening this.Your soul just gets destroyed. It sucks.

Oh, and if you take that class, you ought to be on suicide watch, for realsies. It sucks. On top of that, I am seriously 85% sure the teacher is a robot too. He's so monotone, boring, and quite frankly "empty" when he teaches. You can hardly hear him talk AND I SIT THREE FREAKING FEET FROM HIM!!! :mad:

#RandomOffTopicAngryRants
 

Bajef8

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Waluigi never made sense as a playable character for Smash. People would logic him in by going, we have Mario, Luigi, and Wario, so he has to be in to complete the group....not realizing he's unimportant and bland.
 

Reznor

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Waluigi never made sense as a playable character for Smash. People would logic him in by going, we have Mario, Luigi, and Wario, so he has to be in to complete the group....not realizing he's unimportant and bland.
he has more personality than most Mario characters :glare:
 

Johnknight1

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Waluigi being playable would just show how inferior he is to Mario, Luigi, and Wario from a creative standpoint, as well as somewhat personality-wise (as a fleshed out personality with lots of emotions, feelings, player-character bonding, and [historical] relationships).

Still, we ought to talk about lesser known characters with actual chances of being playable. Like Sukapon and Takamaru, who are two characters a lot of people are sleeping on, but in my opinion, eventually if the Smash series keeps going with new entries, both of them will eventually be playable some day.
 

Bajef8

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I don't know where you've been, but no one is sleeping on Takamaru. I see him on almost every roster people post here. Sukapon is a different story however.
 

Reznor

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guys do we really need another Mario character I would rather have a new Yoshi character or 2 DK characters
 

Shroob

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guys do we really need another Mario character I would rather have a new Yoshi character or 2 DK characters
The thing that confuses me is that they showed the entire Mario cast so early, yet the new game is coming so soon, so won't they want to hype it like everything else?
 

KingofPhantoms

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Most canidates for a new Mario don't offer too much and none are very likely. I'd think Paper Mario would be the most likely new Mario rep at this point, though I'd bet that PM would represent the Paper Mario series rather than the main Mario series.
 

Johnknight1

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I don't know where you've been, but no one is sleeping on Takamaru. I see him on almost every roster people post here. Sukapon is a different story however.
People are too busy talking Toad, Fire Emblem, and no hope Pokémon to bring up Takamaru often.

Takamaru's got as good a chance as anyone not named Mii(s), Little Mac, Pac-Man, K. Rool, and Ridley in my book.

As for Sukapon, unless he is totally deconfirmed, do not count him out, ever.
The thing that confuses me is that they showed the entire Mario cast so early, yet the new game is coming so soon, so won't they want to hype it like everything else?
A new 3D Mario game should hype itself up pretty well. Galaxy 1 and 2 plus NEW Super Mario Bros Wii did fine without Smash Bros. hype accompanying them.
Most canidates for a new Mario don't offer too much and none are very likely. I'd think Paper Mario would be the most likely new Mario rep at this point, though I'd bet that PM would represent the Paper Mario series rather than the main Mario series.
Paper Mario and Bowser Jr. are the only potential Mario newcomers that have that "pop" and actually have a shot at being playable (sadly, Kamek and Geno won't be playable).
\\
 

ChronoBound

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Its interesting how Sakurai has defied expectations to a large degree, or at least whatever the crowd has been shouting.

The latest example has been with Toon Link. Most considered him a goner, yet he ended up being among the first veterans confirmed after the game's unveil.

That is why next week is going to be so interesting. I feel any Pokemon character confirmed is going to be a very big deal.

The big question is though, when does the next character confirmation come after that?

Nintendo only has three more major titles lined up for the remainder of this year:
1. Wii Party U
2. Super Mario 3D World
3. The Legend of Zelda: A Link Between Worlds

Although Mario and Zelda share the same release date in North America, in Japan, Zelda 3DS is a December game.

We either get a newcomer that ties in with Super Mario 3D World in November (either Toad or Bowser Jr., but so far we have not seen Bowser Jr. in Super Mario 3D World), or we get a "mystery" veteran.

Even if we get Zelda in November, we are going to have to end up with a mystery veteran in December.

I think Sakurai is going to blindside a lot of people within the coming weeks and months.
 

Venus of the Desert Bloom

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guys do we really need another Mario character I would rather have a new Yoshi character or 2 DK characters
I would question as to why we would need another Yoshi rep. Besides Kamek and maybe...just...maybe Stanley....there is no need for an extra Yoshi character. Mario, on the other hand, has a good amount of characters that are both relevant and necessary to the Mario/Smash series such as Junior, Waluigi, and Toad.

But yeah, but more DK reps would be greatly welcomed.
 

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Now that SSB4 currently have 17 confirmed characters. I think SSB4 is probably almost halfway done by now.

Brawl was revealed at E3 2006 with 9 confirmed characters. The Dojo started updating regularly on July 2007. The game came out in January 2008 (Japan) and March 2008 (North America). We ultimately ended up with 39 playable characters.

SSB4 was revealed at E3 2013 with 12 confirmed characters. The Dojo started updating regularly on the same day. It is announced that it would come out in 2014. Sakurai himself said he wanted to put in as many characters as possible so we could very well get more than 45 characters.

I think the lack of the Brawl-style Adventure Mode is really helping Sakurai and team add as many characters as possible in record time. Just like in Melee when Sakurai and team had like 2 years or less of development time.
 

YoshiandToad

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I think the lack of the Brawl-style Adventure Mode is really helping Sakurai and team add as many characters as possible in record time. Just like in Melee when Sakurai and team had like 2 years or less of development time.
This actually gives me confidence in having fewer cuts.

SSE was a big ol time sponge for the team no doubt, and although Smash usually has a lot of other modes that require hard work, I doubt they'll include anything as taxing as the SSE this time.

(hopefully they'll also leave Masterpiece theater at home. Not required now you can get demos on 3DS and Wii U. Wasn't entirely required in Brawl either.)
 

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I think the lack of the Brawl-style Adventure Mode is really helping Sakurai and team add as many characters as possible in record time. Just like in Melee when Sakurai and team had like 2 years or less of development time.
That's what I've been saying. They had a much sharper deadline upon characters in Brawl because of SSE I'm sure since the CGI artists needed to get working early, this time they can keep on making characters until the game needs to ship. I bet ya if SSE didn't exist Mewtwo would be on Brawl's roster. Now that they no longer have to worry about SSE it also helps them put more resources and focus towards balancing and better online, not to mention that it also slowed down the game's development a lot. SSE really was a plague upon Brawl, especially considering it was only good for once or twice.
 

Metal Overlord

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I can't remember who posted this, but like 70% of Brawl's development revolved around SSE or something to that effect

so yeah, the effect that no SSE will have on Smash 4 will be greater than a lot of people's realize

also, about Waluigi being "bland", say what you will about him being unoriginal, but he actually has a pretty dynamic personality compared to a lot of the characters in the Marioverse
 

Bajef8

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I can't remember who posted this, but like 70% of Brawl's development revolved around SSE or something to that effect

so yeah, the effect that no SSE will have on Smash 4 will be greater than a lot of people's realize

also, about Waluigi being "bland", say what you will about him being unoriginal, but he actually has a pretty dynamic personality compared to a lot of the characters in the Marioverse
What personality are you perceiving? They portray him as being similar to Wario's in almost every way besides appearance. The Koopalings and Bowser Jr. all have more personality than him. Even Daisy does. He's bland.
 

Starphoenix

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Seriously, just gonna glaze over that huh?

And yeah I'd like to see that. Are you really suggesting 1 character significantly influenced the whole art style of the game?
At the risk of sounding like a jerk, all I'm going to say is I was being facetious about Geno. My point, more or less, was a character other than those two mentioned. Geno was simply a humorous illustration.
why would we want smash to have a "realistic tone"
Maybe "darker" would have been the better term. The contrast between Brawl and Sm4sh's artsyles is pretty large.

I think Chris is kinda coming from the right place, especially with the "aim low, be surprised when the outcome's bigger than you'd expect" mentality. As for him not including the likes of Ridley or K. Rool on his roster, well like he said it wasn't a dream roster, but what he sees most likely happening, and can see where he's coming from on it too.

Though he hasn't been an actual user here as long as us, he's apparently lurked here for as long as most of us have even been here, and thus knows the consequences of expecting too much like others may have with Brawl and such. He has some honest & fair points here and there despite what others may think still.
Had expectations been in check with Brawl, I don't think half of the problems would have existed with the characters selected.
 

jaytalks

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I can't remember who posted this, but like 70% of Brawl's development revolved around SSE or something to that effect

so yeah, the effect that no SSE will have on Smash 4 will be greater than a lot of people's realize

also, about Waluigi being "bland", say what you will about him being unoriginal, but he actually has a pretty dynamic personality compared to a lot of the characters in the Marioverse
was there a source with whoever posted this?
 

ShichibukaiJimbe

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Mario is the Sanguine
Luigi is the Phlegmatic
Wario is the Choleric
Waluigi is the Melancholic

People who thinks Waluigi has the same personality as Wario problably also think the "wa" comes only to imitate Wario, not even knowing about "warui". I'd hope people informed themselves better before being so hateful about stuff they don't know
 

Johnknight1

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I think the lack of the Brawl-style Adventure Mode is really helping Sakurai and team add as many characters as possible in record time. Just like in Melee when Sakurai and team had like 2 years or less of development time.
I do think, however, that making 2 games at once will be a detriment to the roster size, but hey, at least the characters seem to play the same on both games (albeit the physics look different).

Still, it won't take up like 70% of development time like that piece of crap SSE did.
Had expectations been in check with Brawl, I don't think half of the problems would have existed with the characters selected.
I honestly think not too many people gauged the impact of the SSE to be fair, and it's easy to understand why.

Still, a lot of the people were expecting like 50 characters back then. That's nuts (well now it isn't). I know my expected range was 40-42. I wasn't too far off, and seeing as how I was expecting most of the Brawl newcomers (obvious picks), my predictions were pretty accurate.

BTW, my expected roster number is 48-53, more specifically, 49-52 (including transformations obviously). That seems reasonable.

My actual "dead on" number is 51 characters, but that's based on a simple formula. The formula is Melee had 14 more characters than Smash 64, Brawl had 13 more characters than Melee, and thus, Smash Wii U and 3DS will have 12 more characters than Brawl. 39 + 12 = 51 characters.
 

Johnknight1

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70% of development time just to make the story mode, I think it's a blessing we don't have one, so it can release next summer.
It won't come out next summer, sorry.

The graphics, designs, and character balance still in several instances look terribly outdated and/or unfinished.

Plus having around 50 characters (give or take a few) takes a heck of a long time, whether making their models, making their movesets, glitch/frame rate issue testing (especially the latter on the 3DS), balancing them, rebalancing them, etc.

With the head honcho developer saying the game is fairly incomplete and facing major issues, expecting a summer release is a bit much.
 

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Wow, SSE took 70% of the development? THAT took 70% of the development time?
Don't get me wrong, it's not like I utterly despise that, but still it's a shocking number.

I can only imagine if they had spend those 70% into game balance and bringing the Forbidden 7, including Mewtwo and Roy...
 

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I need to see a source before I believe that number. I think Sakurai wouldn't divulge that type of info.
 

Onyx Oblivian

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Whether or not 70% is a real number or not, there's no denying that SSE put a heavy toll on the team. It ate up a lot of time and resources. Putting Sonic at the end of SSE, when it was only months away from release shows they were working on SSE to the last hour. In addition to the 7 cut character files.

The lack of a "SSE" is what puts the confidence in me that there will be no time-related cuts from Brawl.
 

?????????????

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I'm actually totally fine with the release date being just "unspecified 2014." For all we know, the game might not come out until NEXT December; that would allow for a fairly significant amount of development time WITHOUT changing the release date.
 

Johnknight1

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I can only imagine if they had spend those 70% into game balance and bringing the Forbidden 7, including Mewtwo and Roy...
Not only that, but hey, they could have actually gotten ride of stupid crap like tripping, the awful tether recovery system, and made Meta Knight not broken, Ness and Lucas have a stupid weakness, and the Triforce tier not exist.
I need to see a source before I believe that number. I think Sakurai wouldn't divulge that type of info.
It's legit. Sakurai said it in an IGN article. Go to the Smash Information Directory Thread for proof.
I'm actually totally fine with the release date being just "unspecified 2014." For all we know, the game might not come out until NEXT December; that would allow for a fairly significant amount of development time WITHOUT changing the release date.
It will in all likelihood get delayed until 2015 just like Brawl was. Remember when we got "Prepare to Brawl 2007" and how Brawl's release date kept saying "2007, 2007, 2007." Look how that turned out. Expect similar results, minus taking forever to come out everywhere but Japan, especially in Europe and Australia (which probably lost Nintendo millions in potential earnings, which IMO is why Pokémon is getting a same day international release date).
 

?????????????

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It'll get delayed until 2015 just like Brawl was. Remember when we got "Prepare to Brawl 2007" and how Brawl's release date kept saying "2007, 2007, 2007." Look how that turned out. Expect similar results, minus taking forever to come out everywhere but Japan (which probably lost Nintendo millions in potential earnings).
Perhaps. I certainly wouldn't be SURPRISED to see it delayed, but maybe that will be less of an issue without SSE. I have no evidence to back that up, but it is one less (large) thing they have to worry about.

But yeah, after Pokemon X&Y, I feel a lot more confident about international releases.
 

NickerBocker

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2014 is good. I want the game to be pushed to its full potential before it comes out. I want a complete experience the day it releases, and sure updates are nice for additional balancing and whatnot, but id like it to be done the first time right.

Considering the game started development sometime after KI:U, about march 2012, that means it will be about 2 years in dev time come springtime. The game looks pretty good engine wise, as in it looked like it was running fairly good in the few gameplay scenes weve seen. Im sure there are characters that are close to being complete that wont get a reveal or wont for a while.

Hopefully ther are no major delays this time
 

ChronoBound

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I think at the very least Smash 4 Wii U is going to be released during Q4 2014. That game will push more Wii U's than anything else they could possibly get out at that time.

I actually think its possible they may end up delaying the 3DS version if for nothing else but to keep it from cannibalizing the Wii U version's sales.

Far, far more people own a 3DS than a Wii U, and most people will simply opt to get it for that console, instead of having to shell out $300.
 

jaytalks

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It's legit. Sakurai said it in an IGN article. Go to the Smash Information Directory Thread for proof
Do you mean the Smash Development Thread? I'm not seeing it. And I can't find it in the IGN articles, especially the most recent ones.
 

ChronoBound

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Okay, the website is crashing. Looks like it may be under DDoS attack again.

Its a shame too, because we have the Pokemon unveil coming up next week.
 

YeppersPeppers

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(Oh good. As soon as I sign up, the site starts crashing again. Great.)

Sometime during the second half of next year seems like the safest bet. If we're extremely lucky, we could perhaps get it near the end of Q2, but I highly doubt it.

Also, hello. New guy stepping in after years of lurking. I just thought I would step out of the side lines an get involved with the community. I hope to have an awesome time here!
 
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