****. My entire response to Lucina vs. Chrom just got deleted because my laptop hates me. Let me try again.
If it comes down to an Awakening rep, i'm telling you right now it isn't going to be the Avatar. Being customizable is the entire reason the character is in the game. To be YOU. If that is taken away from it, then the character doesn't really have a purpose. At least in Awakening.
We're now down to Lucina and Chrom. Chrom is without a doubt the main character. We have NEVER seen a series get a character besides the main character. It would be like Luigi getting in before Mario if you will. It wouldn't make any sense.
Okay. So they put Lucina on the cover of a Soundtrack. That's nice. However, in the gaming industry, what gets more attention? A game soundtrack, or a game advertisment? Chrom is the front and center Fire Emblem character when it comes to Shin Megami Tensei X Fire Emblem. Not even MARTH, the first Lord and familiar face to fans across the world. Marth is considered a major face of Fire Emblem (or at least in Smash), and not even he is getting into advertisements. But Chrom is.
Compare Chrom to Lucina. As others have said before me, Lucina is an expendable unit. Her major purpose is to deliver a message to move the plot forward, and nothing much else that that. I guess you could say she is similar to Geno's role in SMRPG. Lucina shows up and decides to join Chrom, just as Geno shows up and joins Mario. He comes and has his relevance to the story, but after that, he is optional to have, and while he is important, he is not MOST important. This can be applied to Lucina. She is important, yes. But certainly not MOST important. Chrom on the other hand, is the leader of his Halidom. He is a unit who cannot be killed without having to restart, and he is a character that cannot be switched out. While some may find him "boring" or "has no potential to be unique", those are bull**** arguments. Chrom has just as much potential as everyone else. Not to mention that I don't think you could name me one character who got in based off of their personality or character traits.
Now we're down to Chrom and Roy. Roy's game was released years ago. Honestly at this point, I only see him coming back if Sakurai decides to keep him. Really think about this. If we take away his Smash appearance, what is special about Roy? He is essentially just another lord with nothing to make him stand out besides fire. Not to burst anyones bubble, but we've never seen an out of the blue character from any established series in Smash at this point. No Skull Kid. No LYN even. No Wart. Nothing like that thus far, and I certainly don't see any reason for Sakurai to start with that now.
I see only one of two things happening. It's down to Roy and Chrom. It's either Roy AND Chrom, or Roy OR Chrom. I wish we could see the former, but i'm willing to bet the latter will happen, as unfortunate as that is.
Chrom represents more than just a blue guy with a fancy sword. He is the main character of the most successful installment in a suffering franchise. He defeated the looming power of a god to save his world, and metaphorically, his own series from damnation.
Okay. So Chrom may not have actually done that. The game did. But who would represent the game, and has the popularity to boot? Chrom.