This is a lengthy read, but please, Noah, take the time to read it all.
Imagine that we are doing a field test where we flip pennies onto a hard floor. In the scientific method, we test multiple trials in each experiment before we come to a conclusion. In 9 of the 10 trails, the penny lands flat. After figuring out the pattern in our data, we reach a conclusion, "Pennies are very probable to land flat". Relating this back to Smash Bros., people make predictions based on conclusions drawn from similar observation. Non-clone veterans usually return between Smash Bros. games. Recency seems to be factor, based on the less recent Roy and Mewtwo being made in the game data
after Ike and Lucario. There is one token "random addition" in each Smash Bros. game, such as Mr. Game & Watch and R.O.B. So on and so forth.
In comparison, you seem to take data out of context and use it as conclusions of your own. In your third trial, the penny landed on its side and started rolling. "This means that it can
always land on its side!" is the conclusion you get out of that, ignoring the other trials' data. This is illogical on part of how further trials show that while what you're saying can be true in theory, in practice it is improbable. This applies to Smash Bros. Because the Wii Fit Trainer was added, for example, you claim things like "you can't say my character isn't likely because nobody expected her". However, you don't have a pattern to base this off of, so you are instead using the exception to a given piece of data as evidence rather than using the data as a whole as evidence. Thus, we find the split between your thinking and the "unintelligent smash fans' thinking". You claim a character like Skull Kid will
likely happen because there is
a chance of that happening. The others claim that a character like Skull Kid
will very likely not happen because data shows that the
chance of Skull Kid is very low. You may claim the penny will very likely roll again, but evidence shows that it is very improbable that it won't.
Claiming the penny is very likely to roll is a grade-A example of the Argument from Ignorance logical fallacy.
With that said, I have a question.
Why do *your* characters uptake so much priority over other choices?
Ninten, Eirika, Dry Bowser, 9-Volt, Skull Kid... All
top-notch choices you have that a majority of Smashboards does not have. However, you claim that they're all very likely to be chosen because of how important and popular they are to their series... Where are you getting this? I mean, some of those characters actually are relevant to their series, yes, but the question is, why do those characters have so much more of a chance than others of their series. Take Skull Kid for example. You've made it clear that you love Skull Kid, Majora's Mask was a great game and many people love it. But where does his warrant for being in Smash Bros. come in over other characters?
- You say he's the most significant antagonist of the series, but then fail to explain why. He wasn't the first non-Ganon antagonist, since Dark Link and the Nightmares from earlier games came before him. He isn't recurring, and his only game was in an alternate dimension with no lasting-effects on Hyrule's timeline. Why is he important compared to other characters?
- You say he's extremely popular, but then show absolutely no sources, quotes, links or anything to support that, and just outright ignore the fact that Impa, Ghirahim, Tetra, and Tingle all have many requests themselves to this day. Yes, there are definitely some people that have him on their wishlist rosters, but Skull Kid isn't more popular than the above three. That should be evident if you're one of the vocal minority on this entire website to say he's popular. How is a character popular if there is only a few people per populous that support him?
- You say he's relevant to Smash Bros. to this day, but don't explain why. Skull Kid was only in one game from 13 years ago. There were no plans for Majora to return in future titles like Sheik was. There have been no Majora's Mask remakes as of yet. The only reference to him in all of Super Smash Bros. is a small-sized sticker in Brawl and a trophy of Majora's Mask itself in Melee. Where on earth does that make him relevant to the series as it stands?
That is to say, yes, Skull Kid is celebrated within the Zelda fandom and has fighting potential, but he has less credibility
compared to other choices for Zelda like Tetra, Tingle, Impa, Vaati, and Ghirahim. You can't just say that he'll be the chosen character because of what he has. You need to explain why he would be chosen based on what he has
over other characters. This can be said of a lot of your character choices. You can't just think about characters in a vacuum. You need to be thinking about what would be lost when other characters are dropped out over a given choice. This is why people shut down Ninten over characters like Porky and the Masked Man, Eirika over characters like Chrom and Roy, Dry Bowser over characters like Bowser Jr. and Waluigi, 9-Volt over characters like Jimmy T. and Mona, and yes, Skull Kid over characters like Tingle and Impa. Despite other characters of a series fitting the criteria for having higher probability,
your choicesare just as likely (if not more) because their chance is not a literal zero percent.
What I am reaching out of all of this is that you insist your characters are likely for the very reason that you factor out evidence and opinions alike that go against your views. You're smart and want Ninten. Therefore, everyone else who is against Ninten has to be not smart.
Another classic fallacy. Again, ruling out conclusions based on what benefits your own views.
So if you were wondering why everyone here is an idiot while you're the only genius in miles, perhaps this has enlightened you as to how we think differently from you. I hope that benefits you somehow, Noah.