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Roster Prediction Discussion Thread

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kikaru

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Is this a tier list of likelihood? A couple of gripes

Shulk's likelihood is overrated. He could very well end up being a one-game wonder, especially since X for WiiU has shown no indication of his inclusion thus far. It may be too soon for him.

Mach Rider seems unlikely to me. Put him D tier. If Sakurai couldn't make Balloon Fighter work I doubt he can make Mach Rider work.

Dillon should be C tier. He has 2 games now, and unlike some other characters, is the definitive protagonist of his own series.(Unlike Isaac, Saki, Shulk, etc) He's also probably more likely than any 3rd party not named Megaman.

There are also several characters missing from this list that I think should be included, but I'd rather not be the one to list them.
Have you played Xenoblade? My opinion of Shulk was very low beforehand but after playing Xenoblade it was one of the best (And one of the most musically pleasing) games I have played. Monolith is also first party I believe (Correct me if I'm wrong) so that is another thing Shulk has going for him.
 

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Have you played Xenoblade? My opinion of Shulk was very low beforehand but after playing Xenoblade it was one of the best (And one of the most musically pleasing) games I have played. Monolith is also first party I believe (Correct me if I'm wrong) so that is another thing Shulk has going for him.
Monolith is first party. You are correct.
 

ssbHex

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Have you played Xenoblade? My opinion of Shulk was very low beforehand but after playing Xenoblade it was one of the best (And one of the most musically pleasing) games I have played. Monolith is also first party I believe (Correct me if I'm wrong) so that is another thing Shulk has going for him.
Yeah, MonolithSoft is definitely first-party. Which is great, by the way. And yes, I have played it. In fact I pre-ordered Xenoblade in North America and have the artbook. I'm just saying, there's nothing stopping him from never being in any game ever again, making him not ideal for a character slot representing the X series. This is something that I consider to be one of Sakurai's main problems when deciding the roster for SSB so it applies to Shulk as well.
 
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Mach Rider seems unlikely to me. Put him D tier. If Sakurai couldn't make Balloon Fighter work I doubt he can make Mach Rider work.
Mach Rider would be more comparable to Captain Falcon (and Fox) than Balloon Fighter.
Step 1: Take character out of vehicle
Step 2: Give character moves based off of actions taken in vehicle
Step 3: ???
Step 4: PROFIT

As for Balloon Fighter, the "would be useless if balloons popped" thing is more an excuse than anything else. It just shows that he didn't really have enough interest in Balloon Fighter to make him work, and decided to pick an easier NES character.
It's heavily likely that Pit was overlooked for a different excuse, since Sakurai went through process of elimination for a character to serve as an NES ambassador for Melee.
That being said, Mach Rider and Balloon Fighter can easily be in Smash 4 much like Pit was added to Brawl. Though Mach Rider has a bit more going for him/her, given that Sakurai has shown considerable interest in the character (being one of his "hopefuls" for Smash 2 before Melee was in development).
 

ChronoBound

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Have you played Xenoblade? My opinion of Shulk was very low beforehand but after playing Xenoblade it was one of the best (And one of the most musically pleasing) games I have played..
I said this before in some FE topics, but Shulk is really the Ike of Smash 4. A character from a very high-quality RPG (but very low-selling), in which most people can't see the appeal to its main character until after playing the game that they hail from.
 

ssbHex

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Mach Rider would be more comparable to Captain Falcon (and Fox) than Balloon Fighter.
Step 1: Take character out of vehicle
Step 2: Give character moves based off of actions taken in vehicle
Step 3: ???
Step 4: PROFIT

As for Balloon Fighter, the "would be useless if balloons popped" thing is more an excuse than anything else. It just shows that he didn't really have enough interest in Balloon Fighter to make him work, and decided to pick an easier NES character.
It's heavily likely that Pit was overlooked for a different excuse, since Sakurai went through process of elimination for a character to serve as an NES ambassador for Melee.
That being said, Mach Rider and Balloon Fighter can easily be in Smash 4 much like Pit was added to Brawl. Though Mach Rider has a bit more going for him/her, given that Sakurai has shown considerable interest in the character (being one of his "hopefuls" for Smash 2 before Melee was in development).
I thought about removing Mach Rider from his vehicle shortly after I made that post. I think it would be a good idea. I didn't think of it initially, because in my experience when most people talk about Mach Rider they mean with his bike. Mach Rider sans bike would be a cool idea. Hell, HE should have been the Captain Falcon clone in Melee, not Ganondorf!
 
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Yeah, the whole "must be on bike" thing is kind of silly.
And it was an excuse that the MvC3 devs used for Ghost Rider.
Then lo and behold when Ultimate was revealed....
 

Noler_Mass

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You honestly don't know how to debate do you Noler?

Okay.... Step by step people.


Roy is wanted by the majority. Plus why is "I want him," a valid argument?

Don't assume. It makes you look ignorant.

The majority of us don't support Chrom because we find him boring or simply want other FE characters. Not because we fear the new.


This is opinion. Do not treat it as fact.


Explain Lucas.

Being Japan only doesn't do anything to a character's chances. Especially when Japan is the main demographic.


There is such a thing as online ROMs. You know that right? They're completely translated too.


He has a lot more than that. Chrono can explain how popular Roy is in Japan.

And getting most of you popularity from smash is not a bad thing. Ice Climbers, Game and Watch, R.O.B., Jigglypuff, Ness, Lucas, Captain Falcon and Sheik are in the same boat. You wouldn't dream of removing them, would you?

Roy could also be made to be original while Chrom could be a clone. There's no way to tell.


Chrom is not a lock. Do not treat him as one until he is comfirmed.

That's enough from now.... Noler... Never... I repeat... NEVER view a character as a lock until they are confirmed. It will only come back and bite you in the but later.
He said no one wants Chrom but just expects him. But he is wrong because I want Chrom for Chrom. So he is incorrect.

Not exactly assuming, it's fairly common throughout this forum to hate on Chrom due to his recentness and people's hate with recentness being the sole reason for a character to be in a game (even though its a pretty valid reason).

My opinion on the matter is that he isn't that boring. So I can't agree with those people. He's not bad if you try him. He's a BAUS!

I will admit you have me on Lucas. Just to refresh my memory which mother games are released in America?

I still hold to the belief that they will favor characters released on both sides of the globe. Even if Japan is the main demographic, America has more citizens so its important to appeal to both.

I know of and have played plenty of translated ROMs. But Nintendo will NEVER condone the use of roms so the point is moot.

I could cut a few ;) but the difference is they weren't cut. Being cut in brawl severely diminishes his chances of being anything more than a low priority character.

He could but likely wouldn't, while Chrom has a clean slate.

Did I say locks? My bad. Late night I meant to say fairly likely. Believe me I know that no character is a lock I'm not that dumb.
 

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That being said, Mach Rider and Balloon Fighter can easily be in Smash 4 much like Pit was added to Brawl. Though Mach Rider has a bit more going for him/her, given that Sakurai has shown considerable interest in the character (being one of his "hopefuls" for Smash 2 before Melee was in development).
It's funny but it's that same statement that also makes me think that Mach Rider has no chance. Granted he was never officially de-confirmed like the rest, but he still fits into the same category of NES launch title characters. The fact that the Excitebike* guy was among the de-comfirmed doesn't get me too hopeful on Mach Rider either.

*Not related to the above ramblings but sometimes I forget that Excitebike is actually a Nintendo franchise with multiple games in the series. lol

EDIT: I also forgot about Sukapon.
 

ssbHex

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The fact that the Excitebike* guy was among the de-comfirmed doesn't get me too hopeful on Mach Rider either.
*Not related to the above ramblings but sometimes I forget that Excitebike is actually a Nintendo franchise with multiple games in the series. lol
Wait, "the De-confirmed"? Who? What? The fact that they were assist trophies instead, or something else I missed?
 

N3ON

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Wait, "the De-confirmed"? Who? What? The fact that they were assist trophies instead, or something else I missed?
The list of retro characters considered for Melee before Ice Climbers, but ultimately rejected, for various reasons. Balloon Fighter, Urban Champion, and Bubbles are also on it with the Excitebiker. This was before ATs.

Sukapon was also a rejected retro, but IIRC he wasn't on that list, Sakurai's statement about him was separate.
 

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鉄腕
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Wait, "the De-confirmed"? Who? What? The fact that they were assist trophies instead, or something else I missed?
The Excitebike guy was among the group of NES characters who Sakurai mentioned and de-comfirmed back on the Melee dojo when talking about how the Ice Climbers got into Smash.

You can read about it here.

EDIT: DON'T NINJA PEOPLE N3ON! allcaps :mad088:
 

Swamp Sensei

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He said no one wants Chrom but just expects him. But he is wrong because I want Chrom for Chrom. So he is incorrect. Okay.... That doesn't actually change what he said. He means that there is a large group of people who expect Chrom but don't actually want him. He never implied that EVERYONE felt that way. Don't put words in his mouth.

Not exactly assuming, it's fairly common throughout this forum to hate on Chrom due to his recentness and people's hate with recentness being the sole reason for a character to be in a game (even though its a pretty valid reason). Recentness is a terrible reason to add a character it the game. How is it good? And no, it hasn't happened before. Roy, Ike and Lucario had different reasons for being added. They just happened to be recent.

My opinion on the matter is that he isn't that boring. So I can't agree with those people. He's not bad if you try him. He's a BAUS! Substitute Chrom with Roy and you have my opinion.

I will admit you have me on Lucas. Just to refresh my memory which mother games are released in America? Only Earthbound, which would be Mother 2.

I still hold to the belief that they will favor characters released on both sides of the globe. Even if Japan is the main demographic, America has more citizens so its important to appeal to both. Okay. That's a fair opinion. Just remember that Japan only characters DO still have a chance. Marth, Roy and Lucas prove that.

I know of and have played plenty of translated ROMs. But Nintendo will NEVER condone the use of roms so the point is moot. The creator of Mother 3 did actually. So, it's not unheard of.

I could cut a few ;) but the difference is they weren't cut. Being cut in brawl severely diminishes his chances of being anything more than a low priority character. So Mewtwo is low priority? Being cut does not necessarily mean their chances are reduced. It could increase their chances actually. It causes more want for the character.

He could but likely wouldn't, while Chrom has a clean slate. Luigi, Toon Link, Ganondorf, Falco, and pretty much every other clone had a blank slate as well yet they still were made clones. Anyone can be made a clone.

Some of the clones were made unique (or more unique) later. Un-cloning a character is not unheard of.

Did I say locks? My bad. Late night I meant to say fairly likely. Believe me I know that no character is a lock I'm not that dumb. Okay.
Responses in red.
 

ChronoBound

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This may sound a bit weird, but how would it be if Sakurai were to confirm Dark Pit as an EX character in the Smash 4 unveil. Sakurai seems to be giving the character quite a bit of favoritism. I think the announcement of EX characters would also bode very well for the return of Dr. Mario.

I am just trying to think of possible character curveballs that Sakurai could throw at us for the Smash 4 unveil. Basically, no one was expecting Zero Suit Samus or Snake for Brawl's unveil.
 

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This may sound a bit weird, but how would it be if Sakurai were to confirm Dark Pit as an EX character in the Smash 4 unveil. Sakurai seems to be giving the character quite a bit of favoritism. I think the announcement of EX characters would also bode very well for the return of Dr. Mario.

I am just trying to think of possible character curveballs that Sakurai could throw at us for the Smash 4 unveil. Basically, no one was expecting Zero Suit Samus or Snake for Brawl's unveil.
Impa, Anna, Kamek, and any Wario character could do that.
 
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The Excitebike guy was among the group of NES characters who Sakurai mentioned and de-comfirmed back on the Melee dojo when talking about how the Ice Climbers got into Smash.

You can read about it here.

EDIT: DON'T NINJA PEOPLE N3ON! allcaps :mad088:
As I said before, it was an excuse made to go through process of elimination.
Translating the Ice Climbers' page on Melee's Japanese Dojo has him state that he went through multiple options and overlooked them for various reasons; using the four listed (Excitebiker, Urban Champion, Balloon Fighter, and Bubbles) as examples while stating that the Ice Climbers had no such reasoning.
Given that the four are only examples, it means Sakurai thought of more and crossed them off for whatever reason he could think of but didn't say who they were. Very likely Brawl's own Pit and R.O.B. were too overlooked for some reason or another. Sukapon may also be another one (though unlike the others, Sakurai has flat out said not to expect him in the future). Even retro hopeful Takamaru is likely to have been overlooked at the time.

Also as I said before, Mach Rider is more comparable to Captain Falcon than the others. The character has enough actions on the bike (or on the level itself) that can be translated into moves. Probably even more than Falcon did.
 

ChronoBound

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Impa, Anna, Kamek, and any Wario character could do that.
If Yoshi were to ever receive a newcomer, Kamek seems like the prime candidate, we could also probably guess who a second Wario character would be if we were to ever receive one. I am talking about series like Metroid and Pokemon that were discussed to death, yet we got Zero Suit Samus and a Pokemon Trainer with Squirtle, Ivysaur, and Charizard.

Even Anna and Impa probably would not be surprises to us since we have heard those character names thrown around quite a bit.

Any third-party character would also not have the same impact Snake did.

Its going to be interesting to see what the first round of newcomers we get are. I am definitely expecting Ridley and Takamaru, but I think we are definitely going to get one "surprise" character (or a character that Sakurai thinks is going to surprise all of us). He has done this with Melee and Brawl's unveils, and I have no reason to believe Smash 4 will be any different.
 

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If Yoshi were to ever receive a newcomer, Kamek seems like the prime candidate, we could also probably guess who a second Wario character would be if we were to ever receive one. I am talking about series like Metroid and Pokemon that were discussed to death, yet we got Zero Suit Samus and a Pokemon Trainer with Squirtle, Ivysaur, and Charizard.

Even Anna and Impa probably would not be surprises to us since we have heard those character names thrown around quite a bit.

Any third-party character would also not have the same impact Snake did.

Its going to be interesting to see what the first round of newcomers we get are. I am definitely expecting Ridley and Takamaru, but I think we are definitely going to get one "surprise" character (or a character that Sakurai thinks is going to surprise all of us). He has done this with Melee and Brawl's unveils, and I have no reason to believe Smash 4 will be any different.
Yes Chrono. I know what WTF characters are. No need to explain them to me. I do have some experience.

Essentially, you're asking something we cannot answer. So I'm trying my best to answer you're question.

The reason I say Anna, Kamek, Wario rep and Impa is that they would surprise the majority of fans. It's hard to surprise us as we have discussed almost all characters possible.

But if I had to choose something that would truly make EVERYONE go WTF, I'd say Banjo & Kazooie. That's impossible though so I didn't mention it.
 
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Not sure what EX characters are.

As for surprise characters, I have a feeling that Sakurai is going to use Takamaru as the "surprise" character. Sure we definitely expect his inclusion, but he's very obscure outside of Japan so most people who will watch the trailer won't see him coming.

But I don't think Sakurai will attempt a "Snake" on us in regards to characters. If Sakurai really wanted to, he could do either one of these things:

- Add a Digimon rep since basically no one expects one and very, very few sees one as even a remote possibility, much like Snake.

- Add a non-video game character, ideally one not even brought up a lot for an ineligible character.

The problem with both of these is the massive licensing issues that would outdo any third-party characters (Digimon would likely hit with a lot worse than say Mega Man) and a non-video game character would defeat the purpose of the Smash series; to play as our favorite Nintendo character (with maybe a few guests). Plus Sakurai will likely be trying to use a Snake-like shock with the game play due to less emphasis on character's additions.
 

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As I said before, it was an excuse made to go through process of elimination.
Translating the Ice Climbers' page on Melee's Japanese Dojo has him state that he went through multiple options and overlooked them for various reasons; using the four listed (Excitebiker, Urban Champion, Balloon Fighter, and Bubbles) as examples while stating that the Ice Climbers had no such reasoning.
Given that the four are only examples, it means Sakurai thought of more and crossed them off for whatever reason he could think of but didn't say who they were. Very likely Brawl's own Pit and R.O.B. were too overlooked for some reason or another. Sukapon may also be another one (though unlike the others, Sakurai has flat out said not to expect him in the future). Even retro hopeful Takamaru is likely to have been overlooked at the time.

Also as I said before, Mach Rider is more comparable to Captain Falcon than the others. The character has enough actions on the bike (or on the level itself) that can be translated into moves. Probably even more than Falcon did.
Not really trying to argue or anything I just felt like mentioning my concerns. He's a candidate, I won't deny that, but I do think that people have recently started to overestimate him. As far as I can see all he has going for him is Sakurai having a slight bias during Melee's early development.

Much of the hopefulness for him seems to be weighted on Falcon, Pit, and ROB. Falcon, IMO, most of him getting in had to do with Dragon Fighter/64 tight development schedule and that F-Zero being a semi-important franchise at the time (on an unrelated note, wouldn't the F-Zero newcomers technically be competition for Mach Rider?).

Pit (Takamaru too), I wouldn't put into the same category as Mach Rider due to being a much more notable character, one with a noted fanbase, and unarguably easier to implement into Smash given his platforming roots (seems more like a character Sakurai wanted to hold back on, possibly like Wario, given his statement on Takamaru).

With ROB, who knows, is a bit too out there to compare to any other Nintendo character IMO bar Mr. Game & Watch and possibly the Miis, especially since Sakurai has not given any statement found so far relating to the former two characters inclusion.

As far as I can tell, Mach Rider has much more in-common with the characters who were dismissed and many arguments for him assume too much and or are riding on the outstretched coattails of previously included characters who are sketchy in and of themselves.

As another reminder these are just my own personal concerns and I am not trying to directly argue against Mach Rider. Given that both of what you have argued and my concerns are nothing more than assumptions and personal opinions. You are welcome to try and clear my doubts, but I am not interested in letting this go on for much longer or letting it get out of hand should it continue.


Am going to bed right now so I'll look at and responses to this when I'm done oversleeping (I have bad sleeping habits :laugh:). Been awhile since I've had a good debate (even if it is all just assumptions and personal opinion) so thanks for that.
 

ChronoBound

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Looking at the kind of push that Namco is giving that new Pac-Man cartoon, I think Pac-Man's chances for Smash 4 hinge upon whether he shows up at E3 2013 or not (which is now increasingly looking like the same fate for every third-party character not named Mega Man).


 

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Looking at the kind of push that Namco is giving that new Pac-Man cartoon, I think Pac-Man's chances for Smash 4 hinge upon whether he shows up at E3 2013 or not (which is now increasingly looking like the same fate for every third-party character not named Mega Man).


Just don't show the horrible teeth, and I'll be fine with Pac-Man.
 

volbound1700

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Group A: Very likely:
King K. Rool, Ridley, Mewtwo, Palutena, Takamaru, Little Mac, Shulk

Group B: Good chance:
Dixie Kong, Roy, Mach Rider, Isaac, Mega Man*

Group C: Fair shot:
Toad, Bowser Jr., Ghirahim, Krystal, Samurai Goroh, Chrom, Saki Amamiya, Professor Layton*, Lloyd Irving*

Group D: Unlikely, but still possible:
Dr. Mario, Paper Mario, Waluigi, Mona, Toon Zelda/Sheik, Pichu, Black Shadow, Medusa, Dillon, Pac-Man, Cress Albane, Geno

*: Position is assuming that third-parties return.

I'm thinking we'll get ten to twelve newcomers in the next game (not counting Mewtwo and Roy).
Very Likely:

King K. Rool, Mewtwo, Ridley, Roy, Bowser Jr., Little Mac

Likely:

Dixie Kong, Isaac, Pac-Man, Megaman, Toon Zelda/Sheik, Palutena

Fair Shot:

Shulk, Saki, Lloyd Irving, Dr. Mario, Paper Mario, Waluigi, Mach Rider, Pichu, Samurah Gorah, Professor Layton, Krystal, Toad

Unlikely:

Mona, Black Shadow, Takamaru, Dillon, Medusa, Cress Albane

Not Happening:

Geno


I really do not see the expectation of Takamaru, he never had a game in America and there is bigger characters for the retro crowd to draw from.
 

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I really do not see the expectation of Takamaru, he never had a game in America and there is bigger characters for the retro crowd to draw from.
Not having a game in America didn't stop Lucas, or Marth and Roy at the time. And as for the other point, not really. Takamaru definitely has the biggest name of the retro crowd. Eight letters long for just one word. People clamor for him moreso than other retros, similar to Pit's situation pre-Brawl. That, and a guy from feudal Japan with Samurai and Ninja powers is pretty cool, even for those who don't know the character.
 

volbound1700

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Takamaru is very likely now. His game is coming on the VC now.
Along with a lot of other retro characters. I don't see how he is very likely honestly.

Ness was from a popular series that did come over to the US. Marth and Roy granted came from a Japanese series but it had several lines of games.

Takamaru had one game back in the 1980s. Duck Hunt Dog or Balloon Fighter have about as much of a chance as Takamaru and would likely be more popular of a choice.
 

volbound1700

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Which retro do you see as most likely?
Sheriff, Donkey Kong Jr., Sukopon, Starfy, Stan the Bugman, Duck Hunt Dog, Mach Rider.


Frankly I think Little Mac will be our random Retro character even though he has a modern game. He is the pit of this generation.

I can see the only real new franchises we get as being Golden Sun, Punch-Out, Sin & Punishment, and perhaps Xenoblade and that is it.
 

volbound1700

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The only people I have ever seen talk about Takamaru is on here. He had no demand for Brawl and I think Sakurai is going to pull a lot of the demand for Brawl (especially since most his roster is in place. He also got most the characters in Brawl based on opinion and demand at the time of Melee).

I have seen nothing to indicate Takamaru is all that popular in Japan as well. He is a very obscure character along the same lines as Mike Jones or other characters.

Then again Ice Climbers got in and they were very obscure. There is a chance, I just don't think he is a lock or very likely as everyone on here states.
 

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Sheriff, Donkey Kong Jr., Sukopon, Starfy, Stan the Bugman, Duck Hunt Dog, Mach Rider.
I can agree on Sheriff and Mach Rider.

Starfy isn't a retro.
Sakurai has himself said to not expect Sukapon.
DK Junior isn't exactly a retro, his last game being Mario Tennis for N64. More importantly, the current DK is said to be DK Jr., and Diddy is his spiritual succesor. Doesn't likely at all.
Stan the bugman? A retro character from an existing franchise is weird enough but perfectly possible, but K. Rool and Dixie Kong pretty much stomp out any other possible DK rep.
Duck Hunt Dog is possible.... though I personally don't find him likely. Whatever, I'll not let my opinions bias my words.
 

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Not sure what EX characters are.
It's when a character has 2 or more selectable movesets. CvS1&2, KoF '98, and GGXX AC+ have good examples of what an EX character is. Basically, when you're picking a character, you hold down a button(usually Start) and you get a different moveset.
 

volbound1700

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I just want to know what makes Takamaru such a lock in everyone's eyes on here? He came out of no where a few months ago and now is a lock to be in Smash 4.

Someone also mentioned Bubbles as a retro character, you also have Mike Jones, there are a lot out there. I personally think Little Mac (even though he has a modern remake) will fit the retro bill for this game. Urban Champion, Excite Bike, and others are out there.

Someone said Sakurai made a statement about Takamaru, is that true? That may change my opinion.
 

FalKoopa

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I just want to know what makes Takamaru such a lock in everyone's eyes on here? He came out of no where a few months ago and now is a lock to be in Smash 4.
Someone also mentioned Bubbles as a retro character, you also have Mike Jones, there are a lot out there. I personally think Little Mac (even though he has a modern remake) will fit the retro bill for this game. Urban Champion, Excite Bike, and others are out there.
Someone said Sakurai made a statement about Takamaru, is that true? That may change my opinion.
Nothing concrete from Sakurai yet, except that he's trying to bring more retro characters into Smash.

But his sudden appearance in Nintendo Land with the coming of Nazo no Murasame Jo to the VC shows that Nintendo is giving the Samurai more attention. Also, he's the post popular retro rep out there, like Pit before Brawl.
 

volbound1700

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I never hear anyone talk about it except for a group on this forum. He hasn't done well in any of the polls really. Then again, that is the name of the game with retros.
 

Diddy Kong

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Retro revival characters are a given, and Sakurai said pre Melee that IF Takamaru would get a new game, he'd most likely get into Smash.
 
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