Roster Prediction Discussion Thread

[Arcanir]

Well then I'll just go by the Japanese poll then...Arceus is the most popular, Darkrai is second, Deoxys is third, Pikachu is fourth, Meowth is fifth, Eevee is sixth, Mewtwo is seventh, and Lucario is around #27 or #32...

If you're talking about the Dream World poll then there's also variables there too as some Pokémon were probably wanted because they're rare or have rare abilities rather then being popular (Arceus for instance also won the US poll, but Ditto got second because many wanted Imposter on it). That's not to say that Mewtwo isn't popular, but there's variables in that poll too that may affect where certain Pokémon positions are as well.

 

[?????????????]

Gameplay is definitely important, but if we're talking about the actual roster character selection, I think it is secondary to the character themselves. The most important part of a character (in my opinion) is their significance as a character, not how awesome they would be gameplay-wise. Any character can be made into a good fighter, such as the "unorthodox choices."

 

[Gune]

Fun fact: While battling him one time, he actually said that when I knocked him off the stage.

In KIU? or in brawl?

 

[TheLastJinjo]

That's a bit of "too many sword wielders" logic.

How about this guy?

HE IS A SWORD!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Starphoenix]

So long as the distinctions can be drawn between characters who have legitimately massive backings (the Mega Mans, the Mewtwos, etc.) and the rest who may have a few scattered fans, popularity is a reasonable way to evaluate likelihood, because it's so clearly taking into consideration with much of the roster, with very few, specifically-chosen exceptions.

The problem is the metrics by which Sakurai uses to measure popularity, we do not know completely. All we do know is he is still using some of Brawl's leftover data to formulate and winnow down his roster. But outside of the few glaring obvious picks like the Megamans, and Mewtwos, and Sonics; we really don't have an idea of where characters stand, especially when you consider there's also the regional factor to consider, and different series being more and less popular depending upon the region. For me it's just irksome, because instead of owning up and saying that I simply don't like this character, I feel that people hide behind weak arguments like popularity to try and win e-arguments. Maybe that's just me though.

Actually the Villager and the Wii Fit Trainer are terrible examples, because they are from very popular series, and thus have some of that popularity rub off on them. Granted, it's popularity outside of the smash fan base in regards to smash, but it is popularity nonetheless.

Still, like I always say, popularity and importance gets you considered, but uniqueness and gameplay-related stuff gets you playable.

Wouldn't it be better, then, to discuss exposure and the penetration of certain games and series and how they may affect certain characters? I know we've kind of touched upon that in the past.

 

[Johnknight1]

Gameplay is definitely important, but if we're talking about the actual roster character selection, I think it is secondary to the character themselves. The most important part of a character (in my opinion) is their significance as a character, not how awesome they would be gameplay-wise. Any character can be made into a good fighter, such as the "unorthodox choices."

Not any character can easily be made unique.

Look at Toad. There is nothing spectacular about him, yet he's extremely well known.

Now look at Ness. All he is is spectacular, and yet he's barely known by anyone outside of a few fans before Ness was in Smash.

 

[Depressed Gengar]

Oh, believe me. There will be PLENTY of popular characters by SSB5.

 

[FlareHabanero]

Gameplay is definitely important, but if we're talking about the actual roster character selection, I think it is secondary to the character themselves. The most important part of a character (in my opinion) is their significance as a character, not how awesome they would be gameplay-wise. Any character can be made into a good fighter, such as the "unorthodox choices."

Again, gameplay is not the only factor that is taken into consideration, but again it is a pretty important factor. You cannot be a one trick pony, you've got to branch out as much as possible for the sake of diversity, and in some cases "rules" have to be broken in order to do that. Playing it safe by only introducing stuff people know about will cause limitations, taking risks is very much needed to avoid that. Risks have created a lot more benefits then harm.

 

[Johnknight1]

Personally I would pick either K. Rool or Ridley on the SSB4. Having two of them in the SSB4 roster, and we ran out of the most notably popular characters requested for SSB5. The hype would slightly go down.

...this is some terrible logic right here.

Seriously, look whose been made in the post-Brawl world:
-Shulk
-A few Pikmin 3 characters
-Zeus
-The Wii Fit Trainer
-Rosalina
-Dillon
-Chrom and a ton of Fire Emblem: Awakening characters
-Fossil Fighters
-About 200 Pokémon

If Nintendo can't come up with more awesome characters, that's their freaking fault.

On top of that, there's tons of older characters that could wind up being playable and amazing, like the Mach Rider, the Excite Biker, the Balloon Fighter, Sukapon, Lip, *insert various Pokémon here*, Krystal, Wart, Porky, the Masked Man, etc. etc. etc.

 

[Depressed Gengar]

In KIU? or in brawl?

Brawl. Pretty sure he said that, anyway.

 

[Gune]

Oh, believe me. There will be PLENTY of popular characters by SSB5.

Like....?

Edit:Oh yeah he did say that in brawl thought you meant KIU.

 

[TheLastJinjo]

If Nintendo can't come up with more awesome characters, that's their freaking fault.

Yeah, we don't HAVE to have a late era franchise. Brawl & Melee didn't have one.

 

[BluePikmin11]

...this is some terrible logic right here.

Seriously, look whose been made in the post-Brawl world:
-Shulk
-A few Pikmin 3 characters
-Zeus
-The Wii Fit Trainer
-Rosalina
-Dillon
-Chrom and a ton of Fire Emblem: Awakening characters
-Fossil Fighters
-About 200 Pokémon

If Nintendo can't come up with more awesome characters, that's their freaking fault.

On top of that, there's tons of older characters that could wind up being playable and amazing, like the Mach Rider, the Excite Biker, the Balloon Fighter, Sukapon, Lip, *insert various Pokémon here*, Krystal, Wart, Porky, the Masked Man, etc. etc. etc.

At the popularly requested level of Ridley and K. Rool.
But yeah, I need my head fixed for the night.

 

[Johnknight1]

Wouldn't it be better, then, to discuss exposure and the penetration of certain games and series and how they may affect certain characters? I know we've kind of touched upon that in the past.

Well part of the goal of having a diverse roster is to attract diverse and totally different (potential) fans. Heck, that's the point of crazy and zany crossovers in general. Look at Marvel vs. Capcom; you got all kinds of freaking comic book characters fighting all kinds of video game characters. That's freaking nuts!!!

We got characters from all kinds of genres, and the Villager and Wii Fit Trainer come from genres that we haven't gotten a smash bros playable character from (sim and exercise games specifically).

To me, the next genre to go for is the sports genre and casual genre, and nothing exemplifies those in the Nintendo ranks quite like Little Mac and Miis.

 

[?????????????]

Not any character can easily be made unique.

Look at Toad. There is nothing spectacular about him, yet he's extremely well known.

Now look at Ness. All he is is spectacular, and yet he's barely known by anyone outside of a few fans before Ness was in Smash.

Sure, but... Ness doesn't actually use the moves that he uses in Earthbound. I mean, if they were true to Earthbound and it's characters in this regard, Paula should have been the playable character, not Ness.

I'm not talking about popularity here, cause yeah, Earthbound is more of a...cult hit. But Ness is the main character, so of course he's picked as a character over Paula, yet he uses Paula's moves.

 

[BKupa666]

The problem is the metrics by which Sakurai uses to measure popularity, we do not know completely. All we do know is he is still using some of Brawl's leftover data to formulate and winnow down his roster. But outside of the few glaring obvious picks like the Megamans, and Mewtwos, and Sonics; we really don't have an idea of where characters stand, especially when you consider there's also the regional factor to consider, and different series being more and less popular depending upon the region. For me it's just irksome, because instead of owning up and saying that I simply don't like this character, I feel that people hide behind weak arguments like popularity to try and win e-arguments. Maybe that's just me though.

I see where you're coming from, and I think it's what I'm getting at as well. Other than Mewtwo, K. Rool, Ridley, and maybe Little Mac and Palutena, every other potential newcomer is stuck in this gray zone of tolerance, where people call them popular, but only just to go through the motions, so to speak. There aren't really any characters you can call unlikely due to unpopularity, though...even Tingle could slip in under the right circumstances.

In terms of choosing between K. Rool or Ridley for SSB4? I find that intensely stupid for reasons outside my fandom for both. Sakurai building each Smash game as if it were his last ought to entail him choosing the best newcomers available to him, and by popular consensus, both are in this elite group. In addition, adding one star newcomer to a roster of nobodies years down the road in a game that isn't guaranteed isn't worth diminishing the stardom of the roster in a game that's actually being made.

 

[Johnknight1]

At the popularly requested level of Ridley and K. Rool.

Requests don't always mean a lot. I mean, being popular doesn't mean you were requested a lot.

Look at Snake: He was certainly a popular addition to the Brawl roster, but no one requested him but Kojima himself.

Smash Bros. games aren't aimed just at Smash Bros. fans, but potential fans as well, specifically potential fans who are fans of other (Nintendo) video games.

Sure, but... Ness doesn't actually use the moves that he uses in Earthbound. I mean, if they were true to Earthbound and it's characters in this regard, Paula should have been the playable character, not Ness.

I'm not talking about popularity here, cause yeah, Earthbound is more of a...cult hit. But Ness is the main character, so of course he's picked as a character over Paula, yet he uses Paula's moves.

EarthBound wasn't a cult hit by then yet. Smash probably made it reach "cult" status because it introduced so many people to that legendary franchise.

And Ness had a lot more to work with than Toad ever will in the foreseeable future. That's the whole point of what I was saying.

 

[Depressed Gengar]

Like....?

Edit:Oh yeah he did say that in brawl thought you meant KIU.

Majority of them don't exist yet. XD
But since I don't see Palutena, Shulk, Krystal, ect. in this game, they'll probably among the top for Smash 5.

 

[?????????????]

Again, gameplay is not the only factor that is taken into consideration, but again it is a pretty important factor. You cannot be a one trick pony, you've got to branch out as much as possible for the sake of diversity, and in some cases "rules" have to be broken in order to do that. Playing it safe by only introducing stuff people know about will cause limitations, taking risks is very much needed to avoid that. Risks have created a lot more benefits then harm.

Yes, I agree it is important, but...again, in my opinion, it isn't what we have seen so far. I think most people would say that Krystal would have been a unique, new fighter from a gameplay standpoint for the Star Fox series, yet Wolf was introduced. And we still have Toon Link.

Gameplay IS a big factor, but I don't think it's a deciding factor; at least, it's not a factor above the character themself.

 

[Hotfeet444]

How about this guy?

HE IS A SWORD!!!!!!!!!!!!

If you're talking about the Dream World poll then there's also variables there too as some Pokémon were probably wanted because they're rare or have rare abilities rather then being popular (Arceus for instance also won the US poll, but Ditto got second because many wanted Imposter on it). That's not to say that Mewtwo isn't popular, but there's variables in that poll too that may affect where certain Pokémon positions are as well.

I read it on an article about Japan voting for their top pokemon, and if that's the case, I can remove the top three and start from there, then it'd be #1: Pikachu, #2: Meowth, #3: Eevee, #4: Mewtwo and Lucario goes up by three spots, these are genuine pokemon I know Japan would vote for.

 

[Starphoenix]

Again, gameplay is not the only factor that is taken into consideration, but again it is a pretty important factor. You cannot be a one trick pony, you've got to branch out as much as possible for the sake of diversity, and in some cases "rules" have to be broken in order to do that. Playing it safe by only introducing stuff people know about will cause limitations, taking risks is very much needed to avoid that.

To supplement your argument, throughout the series we still wound up with Luigi, Pichu, Roy, Dr. Mario, Young Link, Ganondorf, Toon Link, Lucas and Wolf; despite what people have interpreted from Sakurai's statements in the past. While in some instances it is understandable why these characters shared some similar traits to their originating source, others make absolutely no sense, both in why they were selected and why they were not more distinct. Of course context really helps explain many of the questions that exist; but on appearance alone, it looks rather odd.

Maybe we should just summarize every argument with "well, it's Sakurai".

 

[Chandeelure]

Sure, but... Ness doesn't actually use the moves that he uses in Earthbound. I mean, if they were true to Earthbound and it's characters in this regard, Paula should have been the playable character, not Ness.

I'm not talking about popularity here, cause yeah, Earthbound is more of a...cult hit. But Ness is the main character, so of course he's picked as a character over Paula, yet he uses Paula's moves.

What about PK Flash eh? EH? XD

 

[Johnknight1]

Tingle was in WWHD and had a new feature dedicate to him
He had a cameo in SS
And had a character based off him in TP

The Wind Waker HD is a remake, a cameo isn't that big of a deal, and eh, the Twilight Princess thing I disagree with.

And Skyward Sword is better than Minish Cap

What they said about Skyward Sword: "It will change Zelda forever."
What Skyward Sword was: "A few cool changes plus the gameplay you have grown to love watered down more than ever!!!"

Even you can't deny most people can't stand Tingle. Unless he had a really good moveset or was the right kind of troll character (like the Wii Fit Trainer), no one would really care about his addition to the roster.

 

[SchAlternate]

Yeah, we don't HAVE to have a late era franchise. Brawl & Melee didn't have one.

Then again, Melee was one of the first games for the GameCube, and by the time Brawl development begun, there weren't that many new franchises to be noted other than, say, Pikmin, so I guess it'd make sense why those games didn't got one.

 

[EddyBearr]

That's a bit of "too many sword wielders" logic.

Which is indeed valid logic for Smash Bros. We have a cape-wielding, fire-ball-throwing, "super-fisted" plumber;an enemy-eating hammer-smashing flying penguin king; a spiky-shelled, clawed, fire-breathing turtle; a peanut-shooting banana-throwing air-grabbing monkey; an iron-tailed electric mouse; a tag-team snow/ice-creating hammer-swinging children; and the diversity-on-pixels that is Mr. G&W.

A game like Smash, with true diversity in fighting style being pretty huge, then too many "elegant/magical princess/goddess" types is definitely a huge problem.

I see her as a cross between Zelda, Pit, and some of her own original moves.

Can you provide me or link me to a reasonable & unique moveset for her? I truly don't know much about her, and if she's got a lot of niche/uniqueness potential, then I can just go ahead and support her, closing some holes in my predicted roster.

 

[FlareHabanero]

Sure, but... Ness doesn't actually use the moves that he uses in Earthbound. I mean, if they were true to Earthbound and it's characters in this regard, Paula should have been the playable character, not Ness.

I'm not talking about popularity here, cause yeah, Earthbound is more of a...cult hit. But Ness is the main character, so of course he's picked as a character over Paula, yet he uses Paula's moves.

I don't think it's such a huge dormant, a lot of improvising has been made in order to compensate for limitations. This is most blunt with Pit, Captain Falcon, Sheik, Mr. Game & Watch, have at you, while it's more subtly done with the likes of Marth and Ness. In my eyes at least, a lot of the characters present basically follow the rules of archetypes, meaning that they follow certain characteristic inherently due to their design. I mean Ness has psychic powers, so naturally having attacks using supernatural capabilities would make sense regardless on how you think about it. It's also why I think even characters that have limited to no combat exposure can still have movesets.

 

[?????????????]

My thought on "too many sword wielders":

...would we also complain about too many fist wielders?

 

[Johnknight1]

Development of it began almost immediately after Uprising development finished, that was Nintendo's priority first, to support the 3DS before supporting the Wii U. It's not like they allowed Sakurai much of a break between titles or anything.

Eh, they could have started without Sakurai. He's not THAT important.

And Pikmin 3 started development as a Wii title, that's partially why it was intended to be ready at launch.

Actually it began (and possibly ended) as a disaster.

Same with W101. And Game & Wario used already established minigames designed to showcase the Wii U, similar to how NSMBU used an already established team and resources, as well as the relative ease of developing NSMB games. Nintendo Land was the only one developed for the Wii U first and foremost with little overlap from elsewhere, but once again, it was just a collection of minigames.

None of this means that Namco Bandai could have gone on to start development without Sakurai being hands on yet. I mean, Smash has other equally as talented Executives who are capable of overseeing things. On top of that, Nintendo could have gotten HAL involved like the good ole' days.

Considering they're about as dumb as the last town, perhaps I will.

Can I "like" everything the non-mafia people do again=???

 

[Gimj]

Where'd you get that sweet Mewtwo icon?

I made it.

Go right ahead and use it if you want.

 

[SchAlternate]

Which is indeed valid logic for Smash Bros. We have a cape-wielding, fire-ball-throwing, "super-fisted" plumber;an enemy-eating hammer-smashing flying penguin king; a spiky-shelled, clawed, fire-breathing turtle; a peanut-shooting banana-throwing air-grabbing monkey; an iron-tailed electric mouse; a tag-team snow/ice-creating hammer-swinging children; and the diversity-on-pixels that is Mr. G&W.

To be quite fair, even the sword wielders themselves are fairly unique from each other.

A warrior elf with multiple projectiles, such as bows, bombs, boomerangs.
An elegant sword wielding prince with swift and graceful movements.
A risk-it-all warrior possessing a broadsword that emits fire.
A mercenary that carries a two-handed blade with one hand.
A younger and more comical version of the warrior elf.
And a mask wearing puffball knight with bat wings.

 

[Johnknight1]

My thought on "too many sword wielders":

...would we also complain about too many fist wielders?

My thoughts on it:

The game is being made by the team behind Soul Caliber primarily, and they know how to make amazing sword wielders, as anyone who has played Soul Caliber knows.

Therefore, anyone who says "we got too many sword wielders" is dumb, and should be called dumb for the rest of their meaningless existence.' After all, obviously there is only 1 way to use a sword, there is only 1 kind of sword, and there are no exceptions.

Of course, the same people who say that must be saying Bowser Donkey Kong K. Rool and/or Ridley are too big.

Or that Olimar Pikmin Pikachu Pichu Jigglypuff Squirtle Kirby Meta Knight are too small, and thus, they are dumb just because they choose to be dumb.

Thus they live a dumb and meaningless existence.

 

[?????????????]

And Ness had a lot more to work with than Toad ever will in the foreseeable future. That's the whole point of what I was saying.

It's also why I think even characters that have limited to no combat exposure can still have movesets.

Now, this is a TOTALLY different tangent in a totally different direction, but...

Looking at these two quotes, I guess I'm saying...shouldn't it be entirely possible that Toad could be a fine, unique character? At the least, I always thought he WOULD be interesting from a gameplay standpoint if he worked like he did in SMB2; horrible jumper, but strong AND fast.

I always thought it would be cool if he could carry heavy objects, like crates, while retaining his normal speed and jump. And then one of his special moves could be summoning such an item, like a Mushroom Block.

 

[Starphoenix]

Well part of the goal of having a diverse roster is to attract diverse and totally different (potential) fans. Heck, that's the point of crazy and zany crossovers in general. Look at Marvel vs. Capcom; you got all kinds of freaking comic book characters fighting all kinds of video game characters. That's freaking nuts!!!

We got characters from all kinds of genres, and the Villager and Wii Fit Trainer come from genres that we haven't gotten a smash bros playable character from (sim and exercise games specifically).

To me, the next genre to go for is the sports genre and casual genre, and nothing exemplifies those in the Nintendo ranks quite like Little Mac and Miis.

I guess you could say Wii Fit Trainer already best encapsulates the casual genre since Wii Fit was the absolute craze for awhile there. Still, Mii's make a lot of sense, and considering Sakurai changed his mind on Villager, I can see the same happening for them.

To be quite fair, even the sword wielders themselves are fairly unique from each other.

A warrior elf with multiple projectiles.
An elegant sword wielding prince.
A risk-it-all warrior possessing a fiery blade.
A mercenary that carries a two-handed blade with one hand.

A cartoonier version of the warrior elf.

Besides, we're looking at, what, maybe 4-5 characters that possibly utilize a sword.

 

[FlareHabanero]

My thought on "too many sword wielders":

...would we also complain about too many fist wielders?

Probably has to do from a design prospective. Probably haven't noticed by now, but many characters that wield swords kind of fall into the pretty boy archetype, baring a few exceptions like Samurai Goroh. I think because of that despite the small amount of characters that actually use a sword, there would be a sense of fatigue if too many are introduced. But in my eyes, it's not a huge deterioration like some people would say. I mean it's pretty clear characters like Meta Knight, Link, Ike, and Marth play differently, because of how the weapon is treated and utilizing any other bells and whistles along with it. I also have confidence that the likes of Takamaru and Shulk wouldn't suffer a bad reputation because they wield a sword. In my eyes, it's not the weapon that influences the character, but how the character influences the weapon.

 

[TumblrFamous]

So, what's been going on here lately? I finally have some down time.... at 11 pm. I'm tired.

 

[EddyBearr]

To be quite fair, even the sword wielders themselves are fairly unique from each other.

A warrior elf with multiple projectiles.
An elegant sword wielding prince.
A warrior possessing a fiery blade.
A mercenary that carries a two-handed blade with one hand.
A cartoonier version of the warrior elf.

Yes, which is why I generally don't complain about sword users, because it's more than just a sword.

Link and Marth are undeniably shoo-ins, and the amount of overlap between them is insignificant, like the overlap between Captain Falcon and Sheik perhaps.

Ike fulfills a perfectly fine niche, being the "big sword big smash" guy.

Toon Link honestly isn't much different from Link, but I think it being 50% of the LoZ Franchise is enough. There certainly should not be another "link" though. He is somewhat unique being the "boy swordsman," though, but whatever.

Roy, on the other hand.. The only thing that separates Roy from Marth is "I have some fire." If Roy was a mixture between a "Firebender" and a "swordsman prince," then it would be much better, but he's not, and it's basically just some very mild visual affects that change it.

Because of this, when there are people saying, "let's have Marth, Ike, Chrom, Roy, Anna, Lucina, Lyn, and Takamaru," then I have no clue what to say.

Marth, Anna/Lyn/Takamaru, and Ike really seems like the only 3-character option that allows for divserity between the characters. This is only if Anna/Lyn/Takamaru include some non-sword attacks, like kicks. Anything beyond those three has significant overlap.

I could only see Chrom coming in if he took Ike's niche, but he doesn't fight for his friends! ;(

 

[N3ON]

Which is indeed valid logic for Smash Bros. We have a cape-wielding, fire-ball-throwing, "super-fisted" plumber;an enemy-eating hammer-smashing flying penguin king; a spiky-shelled, clawed, fire-breathing turtle; a peanut-shooting banana-throwing air-grabbing monkey; an iron-tailed electric mouse; a tag-team snow/ice-creating hammer-swinging children; and the diversity-on-pixels that is Mr. G&W.

A game like Smash, with true diversity in fighting style being pretty huge, then too many "elegant/magical princess/goddess" types is definitely a huge problem.

So even if they play completely differently, them having the same weapon as another character already added should be of more importance than the factors which got them included in the first place such as overall impact and significance to their series or Nintendo? It's not like Sakurai has ever used the reasoning of "already had a sword/magic/fire/etc. user" to keep another character out.

Eh, they could have started without Sakurai. He's not THAT important.

Technically yeah, they could've, but he is that important to Iwata. He's the first piece of Smash, everything else comes after. At least to Iwata (and therefore Nintendo).

None of this means that Namco Bandai could have gone on to start development without Sakurai being hands on yet. I mean, Smash has other equally as talented Executives who are capable of overseeing things. On top of that, Nintendo could have gotten HAL involved like the good ole' days.

You're right, but like I said, Nintendo (Iwata) wants Sakurai secured first and foremost, so while indeed they could've started before Sakurai was ready to start focusing on Smash, it's not something they would do.

Can I "like" everything the non-mafia people do again=???

Capcom won't pick up on it, they're dumber than the town, and I'm going to be killing everybody from the inside, so what do I care?

 

[?????????????]

In my eyes, it's not the weapon that influences the character, but how the character influences the weapon.

Now, I just gotta ask cause I'm curious...

If Chrom was in SSB4, and he was unique, how would you feel? Would you be okay with that? Would you prefer someone else?

 

[Chandeelure]

Smash 4 needs a spear user,and no,It's not Ephraim.

 

[SchAlternate]

Roy, on the other hand.. The only thing that separates Roy from Marth is "I have some fire." If Roy was a mixture between a "Firebender" and a "swordsman prince," then it would be much better, but he's not, and it's basically just some very mild visual affects that change it.

You know these guys?


They used to be clones of other characters too, but each slowly and eventually developed they own fighting style.
Who's to say Roy can't be like that if he were to reappear?

Because of this, when there are people saying, "let's have Marth, Ike, Chrom, Roy, Anna, Lucina, Lyn, and Takamaru," then I have no clue what to say.

Marth, Anna/Lyn/Takamaru, and Ike really seems like the only 3-character option that allows for divserity between the characters. This is only if Anna/Lyn/Takamaru include some non-sword attacks, like kicks. Anything beyond those three has significant overlap.

Really, the only one of those newcomers I actually give a damn about is Takamaru, and he also possesses shurikens and an invisible cape, so there's that to consider.