Time for Dixie Kong. The one of the two possible DK reps I want a bit more, although, like Star Fox, I think DK should get both their reps.
Two additional reps for Star Fox and DK each! Anyways...
Here's my picture of the categories I'll use for assessing characters again again...
These points are for making a best estimate of their chances, although the weight of each category is still unknown at this time. Other unforeseen factors could keep the character from being added. I'll likely post this at the start of all my assessments.
Dixie Kong
Popularity
Dixie is a pretty popular monkey-chimp-thing, some kind of primate that grows human hair or wears a wig with special powers. I don't know. Anyways, she's popular. She still manages to be top 10 most wanted newcomer material, often being close to top 5 after third party characters are removed from consideration. She also competes well for most popular female character, with Krystal often getting slightly more votes in general and Shantae nipping at her heels on a big upturn of popularity. For all her popularity though, it's still not enough to overcome the powerhouse of K. Rool. It's hard to say if this will even matter in the end however.
Importance
Dixie is Diddy's other half. In a couple of the older Donkey Kong Countries, that I haven't played in a long while, the main characters were her and Dixie with Donkey Kong being mostly out of the picture. This alone established her as more than just a side character. In terms of the Kongs, she's arguably third banana and the obvious choice for a third Kong to be represented in Smash. Her importance has been reaffirmed with her renewed relevancy as well. In terms of her role in video games, she's fairly recognizable since the Donkey Kong Country games are favorites of many gamers. Her hair whipping and flying around is fairly iconic as well. In my experience, people often picked Dixie when they played DKC games with her in them because she did seem to have an edge in harder levels.
Uniqueness
Some will say, "Dixie will play like Diddy" or "she'll be a Diddy clone". That's a possibility, but it's also somewhat subjective. I think a Falco to Fox like semi-clone status would fit well for Dixie, but I'm also sure they could get more creative too. They shouldn't try too hard to deliberately make her different from Diddy though, since it makes sense for them to be at least somewhat similar. The major separator for Dixie is her hair. Her hair gives her an opportunity to do stuff that Diddy certainly does not and that no other character really does. Only Shantae rivals her in terms of hair possibilities... unless we let Bayonetta get in there with her truly ridiculous hair properties. Dixie could have a projectile similar to Diddy's with her Bubblegum Popgun but in terms of specials that could be about where the similarities end with Diddy. Her hair spinning "float" would be the obvious choice for her up B, working much like Donkey Kong's but I imagine imparting better vertical recovery. So yeah, Dixie could be unique but she doesn't have to be entirely. I think this isn't a knock on her so much as it just makes a bit more sense if she's at least a little like her fellow Kongs.
Relevance
Thanks to Tropical Freeze, Dixie is very relevant. That game also helped her importance and popularity as people remembered why she's so likable. This is her major edge on K. Rool too, not that Rool is hurt too much by his lack of relevancy among fans, but for Sakurai and co, Dixie's relevancy may just get her a ticket to inclusion sooner if she maintains high enough popularity. "Sooner" may just be by a couple months with DLC the way it is and considering the popularity of both characters however.
Representation
Donkey Kong is an awfully popular, long lived, and relevant franchise to only have two reps in Smash.
Yes, it can certainly use more reps. No other franchise has as good a case for two additional newcomers. Star Fox could use two additional fighters, but it's odds are only competitive with Donkey Kong simply because Wolf was already a vet and should be added easily. Both DK and Star Fox have two characters each that are real top 10 material. Rool and Dixie would be two legit newcomers with Dixie probably being the more derivative character. Dixie was also apparently planned for inclusion at one point but the process didn't get very deep. Not only is DK in dire need of more representation but Dixie is proving to be the obvious first choice if not for the massive popularity of Rool. It does feel like it's more a matter of who will get in first and not who will get in at all however, and then there's a great chance they could come together. We're certainly getting at least one of them. Few franchises have as much of a lock on at least one available "slot", not including possibly leaked characters... except Wolf and his near 100% chance status at this point.
Limitations
Dixie has no real limitations. She's fully Nintendo's, relevant, quite popular but not maybe massively popular like Rool, and has the best argument for being the next Kong to enter the fray. Her only real limitation may be Rool's popularity but her edge in relevancy might be enough to sneak in ahead of him. Both seem to be in really great positions for inclusion so it's hard to say. I'll weigh popularity a little higher however so Dixie's chances will be a bit lower. Of course, this is all assuming it even matters. I think, like Star Fox, there's a real chance that they could both get in, so both Rool and Dixie's odds aren't as bad as they might be otherwise. It all hangs on how much DLC we can expect and the decisions Nintendo makes. Dixie's position is a lot like Krystal's except she's currently obviously relevant while Krystal is currently on the brink of possible relevancy. Both have similar popularity, Krystal edges her in uniqueness, but Dixie probably edges Krystal in importance. Krystal does have the benefit that Wolf is a vet and could be easily added and not take anything away from ballot characters. All in all, the picture looks very similar for them both.
Final Assessment
Chance: 55%
Dixie has good odds really. She's edged by Rool in popularity which I'm weighing a bit stronger, but I think there's a good chance they'll both get in. At least enough of a chance to give her a roughly 15% boost. Like for all characters, if I knew we'd get a certain number of DLC characters like at least 6 more after the leaked characters, then I'd boost her odds. In particular Dixie's odds would increase however since with each extra DLC "slot" available Dixie's odds of being considered to be thrown in with another DK addition increase greatly.
Want: 75%
Between Rool and Dixie, I prefer Dixie. Makes more sense to add another Kong in before Rool gets in. She's also simply more likable to me than Rool and I think I'd enjoy playing her more. I'm a fan of her character in short. DK more needs more reps more than anything however and that's why I gave Rool a 50% even though I'm not a huge fan of him, and I don't need Dixie so badly that I'd be upset if he got in instead. I still believe that they can and should get in together however, same as Wolf and Krystal. DK and Star Fox really need more than just that scant two reps.
...
It's funny to see how many people believe and want Dixie when she's in a very similar boat as Krystal. I think the numbers may be get closer once Krystal is revealed in Star Fox Wii U officially.
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Hmm, I wonder how the board will vote on Impa, my guesses...
Prediction for Impa
Chance: 32%
Want: 42%
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3 Points to Shantae!
2 Points to Snake~
not to mention those already are part of Smash Run and Kongo Jungle 64 stage. Also I didn't play Tropical Freeze, so I was unaware or her bubblegum popgun until I saw it mentioned in another post here, which means bubblegums are more than idle pose material! What do you think about this special moveset?
). Just saying, we might want a fair mix of clones and unique characters, but people will probably want more unique characters than clones.
