Rate their Chances: the DLC Edition. Day: 192: The final day

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Most overated: K Rool
I still think he has a decent chance, but 70% is way to high for him.

Most underated: Shovel Knight
I'm always a bit low when it comes to my ratings. I guess Shovel knight is like 5% lower than what I'd give him.

Most accurate: B.B bandit trio want rating
This thread needs to tighten up. Back in the old RTC thread any joke characters nominated would end up with a score like .03% in chance. But in terms of want we seem to be doing quite well.
 
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Troykv

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Nominations List
The character at the top of the nominations list at the end of a day will be the character we rate on the next day!

Recently rated (cool-off period; nominate someone else):
DAY 36: Ninten (Mother)
DAY 37: Geno (Super Mario RPG)
DAY 38: Squirtle (Pokemon) and Ivysaur (Pokemon)
DAY 39: Professor Layton (Professor Layton)
DAY 40: DLC Characters receive custom moves
DAY 41: Spyro (Spyro/Skylanders)
DAY 42: Music DLC Pack
DAY 43: KOS-MOS (Xenosaga)
DAY 44: Rhythm Heaven character
DAY 45: Cross (Xenoblade) and Elma (Xenoblade)
DAY 46: 9-Volt (Wario)
DAY 47: Monita (Nintendo Land)
DAY 48: Mach Rider (Mach Rider)
DAY 49: Toon Zelda (The Legend of Zelda)
DAY 50: Anna (Fire Emblem)
DAY 51: B.B. Bandit Trio (Fossil Fighters)
DAY 52: Young Link (The Legend of Zelda)
DAY 53: Dark Samus (Metroid)
DAY 54: Jibanyan (Yo-Kai Watch)
DAY 55: Chibi-Robo (Chibi-Robo!)
DAY 56: 7+ total DLC characters
DAY 57: Viridi (Kid Icarus)
DAY 58: Zael (The Last Story)
DAY 59: Bayonetta (Bayonetta)
DAY 60: Palutena Guidance Conversations and R.O.B. eye bug fix
DAY 61: Micaiah (Fire Emblem) and any non-Miiverse stage DLC and DLC stage packs

*Concept: Battlefield/Alpha forms of stages x209
Takamaru (The Mysterious Murasame Castle) x198
Gengar (Pokemon) x195
*Concept: (Shin) Megami Tensei Character (includes Persona & Devil Survivor) x190
Slime (Dragon Quest) x189
Bub/Bob (Bubble Bobble) x178
*Concept: Fixing R.O.B.'s visual glitch involving his eye x175
Slippy Toad (Star Fox) x171
Beast Ganon (The Legend of Zelda) x170
Crono (Chrono Trigger) x155
Andy (Wars) x154
*Concept: Full Ken Alt for Ryu x148
Meowth (Pokemon) x145
!Rerate: Inklings (Splatoon) x144
Ashley (WarioWare) x142
Karate Joe (Rhythm Heaven) x140
Owain (Fire Emblem) x140
Black Mage (Final Fantasy) x130
Vaati (The Legend of Zelda) x128
Sora (Kingdom Hearts) x118
Medusa (Kid Icarus) x117
*Concept: No DLC Characters After Fighter Ballot x109
"Homecoming Hijnix" Donkey Kong song x104
Crash Bandicoot (Crash Bandicoot) x103
Agnes Oblige (Bravely Default) x101
Waluigi (Mario Bros.) x100
"Moonstruck Blossom" Kirby song x98
Lloyd Irving (Tales) x95
Tails (Sonic the Hedgehog) x93
Jill Valentine (Resident Evil) x92
Tiki (Fire Emblem) x90
Dark Matter (Kirby) x83
Tingle (The Legend of Zelda) x80
Absol (Pokemon) x79
Bomberman (Bomberman) x77
*Concept: Ms. Pac-Man Alternate Costume x75
*Concept: Mother 3 stage x73
Sylux (Metroid) x66
*Concept: Any Star Fox character DLC released near Star Fox U release date x66
Ghirahim (The Legend of Zelda) x66
Hades (Kid Icarus) x64
*Concept: New Kirby stage from newer Kirby games x60
Mallo (Pushmo) x58
*Concept: Advance Wars character x56
Tetrimino (Tetris) x55
Black Shadow (F-Zero) x52
Sami (Wars) x50
Dr. Eggman (Sonic the Hedgehog) x49
Talim (Soulcalibur) x49
*Concept: Roy has Awakening attire as default x48
Fossil Hero (Fossil Fighters) x47
Monster Hunter (Monster Hunter) x46
Aqua (Fire Emblem) x45
Jean Descole (Professor Layton) x44
Django (Boktai) x44
Starman (Pro Wrestling) x43
Concept: Smash 5 has 10 Year Wait Cycle x43
Adeleine (Kirby) x42
*Concept: Smash Run on Wii U x40
Isaac (The Binding of Isaac) x39
*Concept: DLC Adventure/Story Mode x39
*Concept: This is the last Smash game x36
Terra Branford (Final Fantasy) x36
Galacta Knight (Kirby) x36
Anthony Higgs (Metroid) x36
*Concept: 2nd 3rd party Reps for Namco and/or Sega x36
Captain Syrup (Wario) x35
N (Pokemon) x33
*Concept: DLC characters promoting new games x31
Klonoa (Klonoa) x31
Saki Amamiya (Sin and Punishment) x29
Gooey (Kirby) x28
Prince Fluff (Kirby) x28
*Concept: DLC custom moves x26
Jin Kazama (Tekken) x26
*Concept: 4th Mii Fighter Type x25
Lana (Hyrule Warriors) x24
Endou Mamoru (Inazuma Eleven) x23
!Rerate: Shantae (Shantae) x22
*Concept: Roy is a Marth or Lucina alt and not a unique character x21
*Concept: Pirate Ship (Brawl) stage DLC x21
Gallade (Pokemon) x21
!Rerate: Snake (Metal Gear) x21
*Concept: De-cloned Roy x20
Dragon Quest Hero (Dragon Quest) x20
*Concept: Remixed DLC Music x20
*Concept: Melee/Brawl style Classic mode x20
Abraham Lincoln (Code Name: S.T.E.A.M.) x19
*Concept: Style Savvy character x18
Alexandra Roivas (Eternal Darkness) x17
Bubsy (Bubsy) x17
Cranky Kong (Donkey Kong) x17
King Boo (Mario Bros.) x16
Sukapon (Joy Mech Fight) x15
Poochy (Yoshi) x15
Sturm (Wars) x15
Chrom (Fire Emblem) x15
Captain Rainbow (Captain Rainbow) x15
Rundas (Metroid) x15
Leon Powalski (Star Fox) x15
Porky (Mother) x15
Fiora (Xenoblade) x15
Isabelle (Animal Crossing) x15
Mike Jones (StarTropics) x15
Isa Jo (Sin and Punishment) x15

Emolga (Pokemon) x13
Zero (Mega Man) x10
*Concept: Shonen Jump Mii Costumes x10
Flying Man (Mother) x10
*Concept: New Kid Icarus rep x10
*Concept: Boss Battles Mode x10
*Concept: All Veterans Returning x10
Skull Kid (The Legend of Zelda) x9
Shy Guy (Mario Bros.) x9
Viewtiful Joe (Viewtiful Joe) x8
Nightmare (Soulcalibur) x8
Yu Narukami (Persona) x8
Ryu Hayabusa (Ninja Gaiden) x7
*Concept: Nintendo Land stage x7
*Concept: Rival battles with cutscenes x6
Aeron (Pandora's Tower) x6
Marx (Kirby) x5
Muddy Mole (Mole Mania) x5
Boney (Mother) x5
Tabuu (Super Smash Bros.) x5
*Concept: Voice Toggle x5
*Concept: Customizable Alts x5
Toad (Mario Bros.) x5
Mighty Gazelle (F-Zero) x5
Mona (WarioWare) x5
Patricia Wagon (Mighty Switch Force!) x5
*Concept: DLC Newcomers will get a trailer featuring more than just in-game footage x5
Silver (Sonic the Hedgehog) x5
Nester (Nintendo Power) x5
Donkey Kong Jr. (Donkey Kong) x5
Birdo (Mario Bros.) x4
Magikarp (Pokemon) x3
Knuckles (Sonic the Hedgehog) x3
Jirachi (Pokemon) x3
Dig Dug (Dig Dug) x2
Achilles (Danball Senki/LBX) x2
"Don't Speak Her Name" song x1
"Captain Falcon's theme" x1
Funky Kong (Donkey Kong) x1
Young Cricket (WarioWare) x1
Calista (The Last Story) x1
Groose (The Legend of Zelda) x1
Jack Frost (Shin Megami Tensei) x1


Last updated: 1:30pm CDT 6/12/15
R.O.B.'s Eyes Glitch is still in the nominations.

MICAIAH
CHANCE: 3.13%
WANT: 24.55%

NON-MIIVERSE DLC STAGE
CHANCE: 89.66%
WANT: 96.44%

DLC STAGE PACK
CHANCE: 54.96%
WANT: 83.78%
Here are the results now we can finally start E3 Week. Please vote on your top 3 overrated and underrated characters. :)
Well... I'm no surprised with the Rates... I expected something between 3-5%
 
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So we say we we think have innavurate scores?

Overrated
1. Ice climbers. The 3ds and seperate 8 players smah bones still exist and always will
2. Chibi robo. Way too many points just for recency.
3. Wonder red. Like diplomacy, his game failed unfortunately.
Honorable mention 9 volt.


Underrated
1. Krystal. Ok this might be about right but if she is confirmed for star fox U then yeah underrated.
2 paper mario
3 tetra
 
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D

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Most Overrated: SSSSNNNNAAAAAAAAAAAAKKKKKEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! - 29.12%

Considering that Metal Gear series creator and Sakurai's pal Hideo Kojima is about to leave Konami after MGSV: The Phantom Pain is finished, not to mention the train wreck Konami has been drastically reducing itself to in recent memory, a chance rating this high is unwarranted for Snake.

However, judging by the ratio of a certain other iconic Konami character's average chance rating (as well as my own) compared to Snake's, I'm sure many of our opinions have changed at least slightly since his day.

Honorable Mentions:

(2) Ice Climbers - A pair of veterans that was cut due to technical limitations.

(3) Young Link - A veteran who was outright replaced by his more cartoonish incarnation. Mask powers or not, he likely hasn't been considered for a return.

Most Underrated: After analyzing our average ratings, no character stands out to me as underrated.
 
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Strider_Bond00J

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So we've started the E3 week.
It may be difficult for me to say which characters I see as overrated or underestimated, but I'll give it a go.

Overestimations:
I personally think the Ice Climbers are on the unlikely side of returning characters - this doesn't mean I dislike them, but perhaps the problems they may have caused on the 3DS version might exclude them from the roster unless they've come up with a compromise.

(2nd Edit) Captain Toad - I don't think he's that vital to the Mario series to warrant Smash DLC.

(2nd Edit) Chibi-Robo - He'd be better off for Smash 5

Underestimations:
Krystal could probably end up in a similar situation to Robin and Lucina, in which we get Wolf and Krystal.

(Edit) The Chorus Men. Who knows whether they will be pre-ballot or not and if the extra time gave them a chance to resolve whatever issues they had for which they were dropped from the initial release?

(2nd Edit) I guess I'll just say the Inklings. I'm in the boat that the Mii costumes do not disqualify them as valid just yet.
I think that's all I'll say for now.

Most Accurate:
King K. Rool, Isaac and Wolf
 
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Sid-cada

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Most Overrated

Solid Snake - I have no faith in third parties other than Ryu. As he is the highest third party, he stands out the most.

Chorus Kids - I say we have put just a bit too much faith in Gematsu, at least the second part.

Toon Zelda - Tetra should at least be higher.


Most underrated

Captain Toad - I'd think he should be closer to even.

Bandanna Dee - Should also be closer to even.

Emma - Just because she is lower than Cross.
 
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Most Overrated

Krystal- No it's not BECAHSE SHE"S A FURREH. I find her to be a horribly written bland love interest who I hope is retconned in Star Fox U.

Bandanna Dee- I just think Kirby is fine with the core three Kirby characters.

Isaac- Played a little but of Golden Sun but I just couldn't get into it.

Most Underrated

Chorus Kids/Marshal - I honestly don't understand the hate for them. I may have not played the Rhythm Heaven games, but I watched some youtube videos and I think a Rhythm Heaven character should get a character.

Mach Rider - I don't see much hate for her but not much love as well. I'd love to see a motorcycle and laser blaster type moveset for her.

Tetra - She gets overshadowed by Impa a lot. And I believe she was one of the forbidden seven of Brawl(Toon Sheik).
 

ZeroSoul

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We are rating chance score exclusively right? Just making sure. Want would probably cause flame-wars anyway:rotfl:.
Most underrated
Pichu 17.54% just feels wrong, especially with Roy, Lucas, and Mewtwo all coming back. Also, the fact that Dr. Mario returned, and that he's the last cut melee vet without a replacement.
Magolor: 7.08% This guy has a huge fanbase, has monster levels of support in japan, is in a series that can handle another rep, is super unique (space time manipulation and portals, wheee) and while he has to compete with Bandana Dee, he actually may just be the one that ends up happening.
Tetra: 19.86% Not really her percent, but the fact she's a spot below Toon Zelda, when she's the more unique and iconic version of her is painstaking.


Most Overrated:
Wonder-Red: 26.31% This guy is third party, his chance shouldn't be this high. I'm a giant idiot, he's a nintendo property developed by a third party developer.
Chibi-Robo 28.86% People were clearly influenced by the new game coming at when rating him.
KOS-MOS: Even just 4.94% feels a bit too high for her. I doubt she's even 1% chance. All of her big games were PS exclusive.
 
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Troykv

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We are rating chance score exclusively right? Just making sure. Want would probably cause flame-wars anyway:rotfl:.
Most underrated
Pichu 17.54% just feels wrong, especially with Roy, Lucas, and Mewtwo all coming back. Also, the fact that Dr. Mario returned, and that he's the last cut melee vet without a replacement.
Magolor: 7.08% This guy has a huge fanbase, has monster levels of support in japan, is in a series that can handle another rep, is super unique (space time manipulation and portals, wheee) and while he has to compete with Bandana Dee, he actually may just be the one that ends up happening.
Tetra: 19.86% Not really her percent, but the fact she's a spot below Toon Zelda, when she's the more unique and iconic version of her is painstaking.


Most Overrated:
Wonder-Red: 26.31% This guy is third party, his chance shouldn't be this high.
Chibi-Robo 28.86% People were clearly influenced by the new game coming at when rating him.
KOS-MOS: Even just 4.94% feels a bit too high for her. I doubt she's even 1% chance. All of her big games were PS exclusive.
Actually... Wonder-Red is second party.
 

Aetheri

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This was actually pretty frikken hard....

Overrated


1-Chibi Robo-We should've frozen Chibi Robo's nominations and given it a cool off period before rating almost right after the announcements...since everyone's 'OMG muh relevancy!!' and 'ZOMG Amiiboz'...not saying his chances didn't increase because of it but I feel like there was a bit of over inflation because of it...

2-Snake-Kojima wants Sanke to return...there's just one issue...Kojima's leaving Konami...apparently it was rather ugly...That and the fact that Konami didn't release the latest Metal Gear Solid for the Wii U (a struggling system mind you) so his Nintendo relevancy has dwindled as well as his chances...people are underestimating the boundary that is being Third Party owned...

3-Captain Toad-Probably one of my more disliked candidates, simply because a lot of people want Toad and they'd settle for having Captian Toad as a compromise...Rosalina and Bowser Jr. are in while Toad is still Peach's meat, err fungal shield and now he's being overshadowed by his own kind...perhaps my own personal opinion is getting in the way of my judgement but Captain Toad as a character is still only starting to establish himself within the giant that is the Mario franchise...

Honours-Wonder Red, Ice Climbers, Squirtle/Ivysaur, Rayman, Toon Zelda

----

Underrated


1-Impa-No bias here, 2015 is the year of the Star Fox, 2016 will be the Year of Zelda, especially considering it's the 30th Anniversary of the original Legend of Zelda...Impa has been a part of Zelda history for it's entirety and has made multiple appearances within several titles, compared to many other one-offs of the series this is a pretty big deal, and her recent popularity is enough to get noticed...Do not be surprised to see her come in as DLC sometime next year...

2-Krystal-The only thing really holding Krystal back is whether or not we'll get two reps per franchise...But remember Miyamoto has basically stated that 2015 is the year of the Star Fox...Yes Wolf is basically a shoe-in but since Nintendo seems to be pushing the Star Fox franchise this year, seeing a second DLC character isn't out of the question and Krystal is next in line after Wolf...Her chances will only increase if she's in the new Star Fox as well...Also...let's not forget that Krystal joined Star Wolf at the end of the last game...it seems just too convinient...

3-Wolf-Yes, I am that confident that he'll be made DLC that I'm stating that the highest rated character is still underrated when it comes to his chances...that, and I ran out of characters to add to the underrated section without looking too biased...so yeah Wolf is underrated <.<

Honours-Midna, Dark Samus, Ridley, Banjo & Kazooie, Sceptile, Shantae...I'm not biased >.>

----

Most Accurate


1-King K Rool-Like Ridley, fans have been begging Sakurai for his inclusion for years...unlike Ridley however, Sakurai can't make the same excuses for the big Croc...He's the most likely newcomer (that hasn't been leaked)...and is so far the most (consistently) requested character out there at the moment...His rating is fair considering all circumstances...

2-Inklings-Their popularity is improving greatly now that Splatoon is making a name for itself on the market, their chances IMO are less than 50/50 which is pretty much where they're at...their chances for the next game are almost 100% I reckon as their support will not be ignored several years down the line...not to mention Nintendo plans on having this game last for a while with it's own DLC so it is likely it will still be going strong years later...

3-Bandanna Dee-Sakubias may or may not play a role since Sakurai doesn't really favour the newer Kirby titles which is where Bandana Dee made a name for himself, but at the same time, he's being quite heavily requested on the ballot so far...his uniqueness as a spear user gives him an edge against a lot of other characters...

Honours-Most characters with <10% chance ratings...though some of them are actually still overrated tbh...
 
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PreedReve

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People who think K. Rool is overrated: name me a more likely Nintendo newcomer from the ballot.

Will vote later.
Thinking a character is overrated doesn't mean we think they aren't likely to get in or whatever.
Personally, I don't see the appeal of K. Rool but I'm happy as long as we get more interesting characters without cloned-movesets.
 

Strider_Bond00J

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I thought Platinum games was independent from Nintendo? I know they also own Bayonetta, and people say that's third party. I'm genuinely confused now.
SEGA owns the rights to Bayonetta, while Platinum developed the game. Wonder-Red is a Nintendo property, but his game was developed by Platinum. I knew I'd get Greninja'd
 
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StormC

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Most Overrated
1. KOS-MOS: Literally Who third party character with no notable relationship to Nintendo. Only time I gave a decimal point or went below 1%, I think.

2. Ice Climbers: I'd knock it down about 10%. I don't think Sakurai is suddenly going to have a programming breakthrough to make them feasible on 3DS. Then there's the question of their compatibility with 8 player.

3. Wonder Red: He doesn't really have much going for him besides a vocal but small fanbase. He had one game that tanked.

Most Underrated
1. Chorus Kids: It's true that their support has died off, but I definitely think they have a strong possibility of being preplanned DLC; as much as I loathed the Gematsu leak, it's hard to argue against its batting average.

2. Impa: Yeah, 25% seems pretty low. She's definitely the most popular choice for a Zelda newcomer.

3. Inklings: This isn't necessarily indicative of wrong judgment on the voters at the time, but Splatoon's massive success seems to cement them. Even before it came out, I always felt K. Rool, Isaac, and Inkling were the most likely Nintendo newcomers.

Most Accurate
1. K. Rool: Anything lower than 70% is too low and anything higher than 80% is too high. I gave him a 75%. I don't care what your opinion is of the character or his perceived relevancy. You have to cover your ears and look away to ignore the overwhelming support. Top 5 character in the west (on a good day, top 3), top 10 in Japan. That's not going into Retro and Nintendo both teasing Kremlings.

2. Isaac: I gave him a 60%. Lots and lots of vocal support, and is mostly held back by lower amounts of it in Japan.

3. Chibi-Robo: I definitely think this guy could pull a hat trick on the ballot and get a lot of support with his new game.

EDIT: I use the word "definitely" too much.
 
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[Obnoxshush/Dasshizer]

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Top 3 overrated

1. Snake
Though to be fair this was before the news.

2. Jibanyan

3. Banjo Kazooie

Top 3 underrated

1. BB bandit trio
You know you want them:smirk:

2. Chibi-Robo
Honestly with all that's happening for him, he should be much higher, like at least 50%

3. Krystal
For a character who has a bunch of fans, she should be just a tad bit higher, like maybe 35%.

Most Accurate

1. King K Rool
He's going to need the ballot to get him in.

2. Isaac
Could go either way with him

3. Dixie
Same thing.

Pretty much 4,5, and 6. The reason 1,2,and 3 for chance aren't my picks are because their chances are much higher than we rated them.

Nominations: Sami X5.
 
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Yeah I was waiting for this day, if only for the fact it changes the pace of this game :happysheep:


Most overrated: Rayman
As much as I'd love Rayman to be in Smash Bros. as a playable character I can't help but think he's an unlikely character choice. Ryu proves indeed that third-party newcomer DLC is possible, but even then I don't have much faith in Rayman's chances. Even though he's a big name and easily recognizable to the mainstream gamer, I'm not fully convinced about his historical influence on Nintendo being at the same level as other third-party characters currently playable in Smash, and the trophy cameo may mean that he was actually rejected as a playable character (like if Ubisoft asked and Sakurai said no). But what I think is the biggest issue is his Japanese notoriety; he's a pretty big deal in Europe, popular in America as well I think, but his Japanese popularity is actually pretty lacking. For example, Rayman 3, which offers some interesting potential special moves for Rayman (like a ranged, chargeable tornado projectile that may act similar to Mario's cape and may even shrink enemies when fully charged), was not even released in Japan! It's sad because Rayman playable in Smash would be the ultimate gathering of my childhood heroes, but at least I love the fact he got represented.


Second most overrated: Shantae
I... I don't understand what's the deal about this character. I've only heard of like, two or three people asking for her on the entire internet before the April Direct? And now it looks like everyone sees her as a strong contender and I don't get it. The history she has with Nintendo, while being kind of unique, is nothing to stand out, she has extremely minor influence on Nintendo as a whole, and she's very obscure outside of the fact her fanbase is pushing for her hardcore on the internet since the Ballot was announced. She's like... more obscure than almost every single series represented in Smash with a playable character? I guess she has the potential to be unique, but so do a lot of Smash DLC contenders owned by Nintendo. Standards for third-party universes to get playable representation in Smash Bros. are dozens of times stricter than the ones for Nintendo characters and there's no way I can see Shantae meeting them; Sakurai will have to be excessively generous for her to become a playable character. All I can see her getting is a Mii costume if she's extremely lucky, but her being playable as a fully fledged fighter is a pipe dream as of now.


Third most overrated: Isaac
I don't think Isaac is insanely overrated as I feel him getting a high score is justified, however I really really can't see him as more likely than not. Golden Sun got little contents in Smash 4 and it overall seems that Nintendo doesn't consider it as one of their strong series. The Ballot support is arguably the biggest thing Isaac has for him, but... I just don't have a lot of faith in seeing Golden Sun getting more representation through DLC let alone a playable character. It's a shame because the series has a lot of fans I'd like to see happy and I enjoyed the first Golden Sun game (which I bought as a way to bandwagon Isaac support lol).

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Most underrated: Captain Toad
I don't like to call a top 10 chances character as underrated, but I feel like Captain Toad's current chances score doesn't do justice to his status as one of the biggest contenders imo. A lot of fans are interested in seeing a playable Toad in Smash, and due to being one, Captain Toad directly inherits from the species' iconicness. I think it's safe to to believe Sakurai never saw Toad as playable material, giving it the role of Peach's neutral B in every title since Melee. But with Captain Toad's rising establishment within the Mario universe, promoting from a supporting character in Super Mario Galaxy to a side game character in Super Mario 3D World to eventually the star of his own game, as well as his unique potential for a moveset inspired from his playable appearances in SM3DW and Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker, I think he stands out from the Toad used by Peach and I highly doubt he's not on Sakurai's radar. I'm not necessarily asking for him to reach the top 5 of chances, but at least somewhere between Dixie Kong's and Bandanna Dee's current scores.

Abstaining for second and third most underrated.

-----


Most accurate: Dixie Kong
I don't feel like deeming anyone as more likely than not as this point, besides obviously Wolf and the leaked duo (if I had to rate Captain Toad and King K. Rool right now I would give them between 45 and 50% I guess), but I feel like Dixie Kong's rating is pretty good job. She's a popular and influent character from the Donkey Kong series, which gets a lot of demand for another playable character, and she definitely has star power. I think limited DLC newcomer spots and competition are her biggest issues, just like most top tier contenders.

Abstaining for second and third most accurate.

-----

Most hyping prediction: Mewtwo's reveal
Most deflating prediction: the Ridley debacle

(Again, just predicting for fun, I know there's no reward for this.)

Credits to @N3ON for the pics, find more here.
 

Roaring Salsa

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Most Overrated
1. Ice Climbers :popo:
Sakurai has already mentioned the 3DS isn't able to incorporate them.
2. Chibi-Robo
Considering his rate day was a few days after the Direct, the results skyrocketed as expected. I'd still like to see him appear, though.
3. Shantae
I understand where her appeal comes from but... just see the post above. Really interested in how she would play.

Most Underrated
I don't find much of a problem here.

Nominations
Tingle x5
 

Yomi's Biggest Fan

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Most Overrated1. Sceptile: "We must have a Grass Type in the roster to replace Ivysaur". Nuff said.

2. Ice Climbers: The fact that Sakurai's team literally struggled to have them work on the 3DS is enough to call them out on how high of pedestal that people put them on. I love the Icies and all, but there's literally no way that they can get around any system limitations in the game.

3. Young Link: Veteran or not, I'd think that we won't be seeing a third Link in the roster. And if I recall, doesn't he have less support than Pichu in Japan?

Most Underrated
1. Chorus Kids: Rhythm Heaven is still going strong and there's still room for that inevitable rep in the game as DLC (ballot to pre-planned). Yes there was the whole Gematsu bandwagoning, but the flack that these three get are undeserving and their species is heavily prominent in the new game.

2. Tetra: With her brand new role in Hyrule Warriors and the fact that she has more material to work with, I think it's time to give her the attention she deserves. If no one wants a clone Zelda (Toon Zelda), then we can have a unique badass pirate instead.

3. Shovel Knight: With a Japanese release coming soon and a crap load of cameos in his game, it's safe to say that he's this generation's CommanderVideo. The fact that he's planned to appear in another future indie title is enough to think about how popular this knight will be in the future.

Most Accurate
1. K. Rool: Nothing out of the ordinary, his chances has that middle ground as it can get.

2. Isaac: Again, he has loads of Western popularity backing his inclusion and his series could get a better future if Camelot feels like working on another title.

3. Dixie Kong: Second best DK choice with an OK position to K. Rool since she's less desired despite her relevance. And may I remind you of the Forbidden 7?
 
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Kenith

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Most Overrated: Chorus Kids
I wanted to say Impa, but refrained because I don't know if people generally want a Sheikah version or a Hyrule Warriors version.

With that out of the way:
Chorus Kids are a relic of a long-dead leak at this point. Supposedly they were planned, but for whatever reason they were cut, and both of the main potential reasons still apply; the hardware hasn't changed, so if hardware issues kept them out of the game, they're still out of luck. If a lack of prominence kept them out, they're still outclassed by other characters in the series.
At the very least, their chance for Smash 4 is very low now.

Most Underrated: Midna and Wolf Link

Not actually sarcasm, but I feel since the only other Assist Trophy we've rated isn't as prominent as this one and I'm biased I would chose this to represent the general "NPC becoming playable" category of characters.
A lot of people are outright dismissing them, and I don't think that's wise. I wonder how many times I'll have to say that before someone listens.

Most Accurate: Isaac

He's really popular and he's been there since Brawl. A somewhat forgotten series just begging to be brought back. The planets are aligning to have Isaac to join the roster in my opinion. With most of his competition and time constraints out of the way I feel like Isaac is an inevitability...if we get a healthy dose of DLC, that is.

Overall it's kinda low compared to my opinion but when he's top five in with characters that are practically compared I'd say it counts.
---
 

Champ Gold

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Man this seems like a controversial topic but I love that.

Most Overrated

Captain Toad:
I'm sorry but he has way to much against him being in any time soon especially considering while Mario can handle more reps, Captain Toad isnt what I see as any priority for DLC. Smash 5 is your time wait on that.

Rayman:
I feel like people overinflate his chances only due to a trophy and fake leak, as of right now Rayman is probably the least likely for FLC at the moment even for third-party. I feel like his trophy was a one time thing and nothing else. Plus Nintendo/Ubisoft relationship isn't looking alright at the moment

Inkling:
Premature choice due to how popular their game is but she isn't ready for that spotlight yet. The Mii costumes are holdovers until the moment when Smash 5 ecist and when that happens, Inkling will be first and major priority over any other Newcomer and will be the first ones in.


Underrated

Snake:
Konami isn't a hard roadblock for him it's mostly because he wasn't a thought for a character again bh Sakurai. I think he has a better chance than most third-party characters be of veteran status

Dixie Kong:
I feel like her chances seem underwhelming and while K. Rool has a bigger chance compared to others that doesn't mean she isn't less likely. Forbidden 7 kinda helps too

Impa:
I hate the HW made her relevant excuse since she's been in more games than other Zelda request who were one-offs. HW just gabe her an easier standing than most. Plus a hard hitting Sheik with a nagata doesn't sound too bad


Most Accurate

K. Rool:
People want him and he's getting a heabu push in West and Japan

Wolf:
He's just like Lucas and he's a missing rep from a franchise who's getting a big game this year.

Issac:
Nuff Said


Nominations:
Starman x5
Isa x5
Medusa x3
 
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I applaud most of you for surprising me with your underrated scores, thought the Krystal hate was too strong.

Most accurate:

Roy
Ryu
Wolf

Most overrated:
Captain toad
Squirtle/Ivysaur
Chibi-Robo ( i like this one but its just too high)

Most underrated:
Krystal
IC's (should be 50% imo)
Tetra/Toon zelda
 
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Are we talking overrated/underrated in chance or want?

I'll do Both.
Overrated Chance:
Isaac
Paper Mario
Krystal

Underrated Chance:
Squirtle
Ivysaur
Young Link

Overrated Want
Dixie
Paper Mario
Geno

Underrated Want
Playable NPC (A concept that I missed, I assume it means AT and Bosses, I'll do three characters if we're not doing concepts)
Young Link
Monita
Bayonetta

Nominate all veterans returning x5 (are we still nominating?)

Prediction: MORE HYPE%
 

Troykv

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Very well... Is time to tip... oh wait, that is for other thread...

Most Overrated Characters:

Ice Climbers: Be a Top 10 Chance with a very important problem in their side.

Young Link: ... Seriously... Pichu is actually more likely that him

Snake: ... Kojima leaves Konami... Konami don't care about any franchise.

HM: Shantae, Rayman.

Most Underrated Characters:

Pichu: .. People believe more in a character already in the game with other desing-style than in him.

Impa: ... Zelda pushing could actually be bigger that actually see, also, she is a popular character in the Ballot.

Roy: ... He actually deserves the best chance rate with the leak.

My Honorable Mentions probably has bias xD.

Most Accuarate Characters:

King K. Rool: The best "newcomer not-already leaked chance rate" for the most disccused and voted character in the Ballot with his story, legacy and powerful potential... The best shot.

Dixie: King K. Rool with less points but recent relevancy.

Wolf: Lucas's reveal almost make him a "shoo-in".
 
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Logo12

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wolf is underr8d. he shud be 101%

Okay, joking aside, since I don't really know most of these, I'll just pick those I'm familiar with, stays around 20th, and I feel doesn't fit in.
Overrated
3rd: Dixie Kong
Okay. The 6th in chance, comes from a franchise that lacks representation, I got it. but when it comes to being a DLC, I do think King K Rool would be enough. Sure, we could use some females, but are we really having ourselves 2 reps or no villain just for a feminine character? I don't think so.
2nd: Daisy
20th in Chance. I've made this argument before, and that would be the first ever time I have started an argument since joining this forum. My point is: We have enough Mario Characters, and having a character that appear in only spin-offs (except Mario Land) wouldn't be so satisfying. Sure, she can represent Mario spin-offs... wait WHAT? Why do we need a character that represents spin-off titles now? And even if that is, Waluigi would do even better! A more popular character, is villain (sorta), and is already given in Smash as a prove of importance... and that's also his downside, but chances are, Waluigi would come before her, and 21% for me is a bit too high.
1st: Krystal
Yeah, I'm feeling a bit weird since all 3 of the characters here are female. Not trying to be sexist but... argh whatever.
The argument is similar: we have a better alternative, and sure, we have the year of Star Fox here, but I doubt that developers would risk having Star Fox called "overrepresented" by increasing the number of Star Fox reps to 4, being the 3rd-5th represented franchise in the game. Also with the contradicting conversations in Lylat Cruise (and probably the laziness of the developers to even give out more voiced conversations ATM) if she gets in, well, stuff happens.

Still, being 25%? With the huge amount of viable choices around (K Rool, Isaac, IC(?), Inklings etc), and the reasons above, I doubt if her chance is really higher than rolling 2 dices and having them the same number.
Underrated
Okay, I really have nothing to say here. Again being someone who knows nothing about Nintendo outside Smash, the choices below 15% look all strangers to me. In fact, I really don't see anyone being underrated, now I see, but I think I will just pick some random stuff I do know about.
3rd: Bandana Dee
So while scrolling crazily around the whole chance scoreboard, I noticed how weird the curve is. The first 8 having 34-93% chance, and the rest of it is like all clustering around 20 or 10 or something lower. Significant chance differences appear around the first 10, and here's where the problem I found exists on. As far as I remember, Bandana Dee is consistently around the top 5. But here, he's beaten by IMO overrated characters like Inklings and Dixie. In my opinion, he would be as likely as what the top 4-5 is in terms of chance percentage. Sure, all those Sakurai bias and Anti-Sakurai bias move his chances a little bit, but probably not 20% less likely than Isaac.
2nd: Banjo&Kazooie Lapis Lazuli ~My brother
I'm not sure about third party characters, in fact, if anything, I'd think all third party gets their chance instantly halved or zeroed to be realistic. But I would say, they have more chance to be in than characters like Shantae or Jibanyan -- At least they seem more relevant and popular (and has been here for longer).
1st: Ridley
Okay, all choices here seems to be unpopular choices so far, but I wanna ask: Is Ridley's chance actually comparable with Shovel Knight? Sure, he's a stage hazard, is too big, and is officially deconfirmed, etc. But I don't think he deserved being pulled to such a low rate. Like said, Sakurai deconfirmed the chance of having DLC after Mewtwo before, and now there still is DLC. "Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, Ridley confirmed". Who knows.

Okay, here comes some honorable mentions who I just skipped because either I don't think their chance will differ too much, or that I don't even know if their chance should go higher or lower.
  • Inklings: I'm sure the rate happened before the game. I have been skeptical about their support. How are people so sure about their addition chance if they were not even out yet? Now the game is out, I think we can have a rerate for their chances.
  • Wolf: While I do support Wolf, is he *really* a shoe-in? We have 2 leaked characters and, well, Wolf is rated HIGHER than them. A bit exaggerating if I say.
  • Basically all 3rd Party: Like what I've said, the chance that we have a third party is already low, and getting some unimportant characters (2nd char in 1 franchise, or characters in unpopular franchises) is even slimmer or even impossible. This is probably too vague to be a thing tho.

Since I'm mostly judging by comparison, my votes will be this different compared to others. But to be honest tho, if this rate is really done realistically, almost anything below Top 10 is a instant 0%. We just occasionally have supporters from small franchises given them 20% or what.
 
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Overrated

Wolf: As much as I myself want him in (a lot), I think people exaggerate him a bit too much. People where 100% certain he would come after Mewtwo and then we got Lucas, then they where 100% certain he would come after Lucas and apparently Roy and Ryu where higher priority.....
Don't get me wrong, I think Wolf has a really good chance myself and I'm fairly sure that he will come eventually. I'm just a little worried that people might keep burning themselves out every time we get a DLC character that isn't Wolf or that they might even get hated on for "not being Wolf". It's kinda starting to feel like a similar situations as certain other characters.... That's just me though.

Underrated
Tetra and Toon Zelda: I think they both could probably be bumped up by a few percents imo. Although unlike others I think they are good on a near equal ground with Toon Zelda being slightly more likely as she was initially planned and given the green light before (I highly doubt Toon Sheik was Tetra) and we actually have yet to get much of a precedent of characters that get recently promoted of making it in. As we haven't seen Young Link, Sceptile (or any viable gen 3 Pokemon really) or even the Inklings confirmed (the best they got was a Mii costume). So I think the best thing for Tetra is that she has most likely gained some more votes at the ballot and if Sakurai wished to refill the "Toon Sheik" hole that would be left behind if he decided to revive Toon Zelda, Tetra would be the perfect idea to fill that in.
But all in all, they are both close to equal ground in my opinion. I wouldn't even be surprised if we got them both bundled together. There is even a song in the game that sounds like it was almost made with both of them in mind. (in my opinion)

That's really all really. I don't really have much of an opinion on the positions of others really. :/
 
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Delzethin

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I want to do something a little different. Instead of just looking over the character that I think were rated too high or low, I also want to look at why it happened. Let's see if we can understand why the ratings were what they were, shall we?

NOTE: I decided to leave Ryu and Roy off this list. How accurate our ratings were depends too much on things we still don't know for sure.

--

Most Overrated

Though these first two months, there was a lot of debating, arguing, character campaigning, and general craziness all around...but there were still patterns. For one, veteran characters had better treatment overall than most newcomers. Problems that would've been considered deal breakers for a newcomer were often swept away for a veteran as if they were nothing. I ended up scratching my head several times at some of the free passes they got, even if they had significant obstacles in their way.

That brings me to the first character I think was rated too high:

1. Ice Climbers
As we know now, they were originally planned for Smash 4...but technical complications shelved them. Due to how complicated Nana's AI was, having too many sets on screen at a time was pushing the 3DS beyond its limits, and even putting the squeeze on the Wii U's processor when in 8-Player Smash! Sakurai's team decided it was better for Popo and Nana to sit this one out than either invest even more time that was better spent elsewhere or leaving them as is and letting them lag the games to the point of unplayability.

If you ask me, that's a pretty big deal, especially since the team left over for DLC is smaller than the initial team. And yet, so many acted like the Smash Ballot could bend reality and render those problems irrelevant. With so many compelling characters to choose from now, it doesn't seem worth it to invest a significant part of their team to fixing them again and risk having nothing to show for it.

At least they'll be pretty likely for Smash 5.


I've noticed something else, as well. You know how sometimes you see something and it really inspires you? An idea can latch on to your mind and, for a while, you can't stop thinking about it. Several characters now have had support bases show up once something happened to make them seem likely.

It's like an inverted sour grapes effect, with supporters jumping on the bandwagon to say they were there before the character was confirmed. Not that there weren't actual supporters before...and I wonder how they felt surrounded by a bandwagon that misrepresented them.

And for the next entry, a bandwagon literally appeared overnight.

2. Rayman
One of the only third party characters with a tie to Smash already, in the form of a few trophies. Though when the reason for those trophies was the fact that Nintendo themselves published Rayman Legends in Japan, and when Ubisoft's relationship with Nintendo is currently strained at best, it seems like giving him a near one-in-three chance is wishful thinking that ignores the surrounding circumstances.

But let's be honest. If Artsy Omni hadn't done that super-convincing hoax that got so many people to picture Rayman in Smash? His rating would've been at least ten points lower.


There's one more thing I've seen, though. It's what, thanks to a friend who came up with the idea, I call "flavors of the month". Every now and then, sometimes for reasons related to #2, sometimes for reasons that aren't related to Smash at all, a character sees a brief flare up in popularity that translates to ballot support. The thing with flavors of the month is, though, that support doesn't always last.

You saw this most often with characters just getting their own games, Captain Toad and the Inklings among them. Indie darlings Shovel Knight and Shantae became flavors of the month for a while when their patron companies officially supported them for Smash despite knowing full well how unlikely their chances were. Even before Smash 4 came out, Chrom gained a following and the Chorus Kids suddenly grew a bandwagon out of nowhere when the Gematsu Leak claimed they were guaranteed.

This character, though, is a little more recent.

3. Chibi-Robo
This is why we froze votes for Roy and Ryu once those victory theme files were found. With the surprise announcement of a new Chibi-Robo game and an amiibo, the little guy became a flavor of the month. It remains to be seen what support he'll sustain, but for now, rating him so high so suddenly feels like a knee-jerk reaction.

To say no less of everyone who assumed they'd throw him into Smash to promote the new game despite the total lack of precedent for it. A word to the wise: I know what it's like to suddenly get really interested in a character, but if you want to give them a high rating, don't rely on shaky arguments.


Honorable Mentions: Snake got something similar to #1's veteran privilege, and I would've had him at 3 if Chibi-Robo hadn't happened to be near the top of the nominations at the same time a new game was announced. The main reason Snake is so unlikely now, though, has to do with things that happened after his rating. I have no clue how Daisy got such a high rating despite being such a divisive figure among Mario fans who has had one, old appearance in the main series. The Inklings blur the lines between what happened with 2 and 3; a new IP with a tidal wave of hype that made people want them in Smash right now without waiting to see how their series even panned out! Since the only "promotion" they got were Mii costumes, though, it seems their biggest argument...has been splatted. And then there's Pichu, a generally disliked clone who still managed to nearly crack the Top 25 though veteran privilege and ratings that outright disregarded arguments made against the previously rated Pokémon in a blatant case of doublethought!


Enough ranting, though. Let's talk about some characters with brighter futures.

Most Underrated

There's an argument I see made constantly: the idea that we'll only get one DLC character per series. So much of the fanbase acts like it's unquestioned truth...and yet, we have no proof of it. The biggest argument that it exists involves claiming a series can only justify so many "reps" in comparison with other series...but that doesn't seem true either! Consider how two Mario newcomers made it into Smash 4 despite cries of oversaturation. Consider how it took until Brawl for there to be more than one character from Kirby's games. Consider the fact that Bowser Jr. almost didn't make it...and that no one was planned to take his "slot".

In other words: All those characters rated low from people assuming a more popular character would "take" their series' "roster spot", or assuming they already had? All those characters ripped in Want out of fear of them "stealing" a more popular character's "slot"? Reconsider them.

Such unfounded ideas have skewed several ratings we've done so far...and my pick for most underrated saw a perfect storm.

1. Krystal
Krystal's day was hard to watch. Post after post of "she won't get in over Wolf", cries of "You aren't stealing Wolf's spot!", far too many "no furries" cards played by people who would go on to openly praise Wolf despite the latter being a furry character himself! But there's nothing saying we can't get two Star Fox characters, especially with a brand new game giving the series the spotlight again and with Sakurai implying he wants to go all out with DLC.

And you know how much focus the developers put on unique newcomers this time around? All that talk of how Robin was chosen over Chrom because of how much more potential he had, how easily he could differentiate himself from the rest of the roster, how he could represent aspects of Fire Emblem that no current character--or Chrom--could?

Have you seen Krystal supporters much--can't say I blame you if you haven't, considering it makes you an easy target in places--and listened to why they think she'd make such a great addition to Smash? You'll keep seeing references to her staff from Star Fox Adventures, how it'd make her the first fully unique Star Fox character since Fox himself. You'll see the staff's powers from Adventures be discussed, how easily they could be worked into a moveset and give Krystal abilities no other character has. You might even see talk of weapons beyond her staff, of the ground combat from Star Fox Assault and how untapped its various blasters and artillery are.

Moveset potential is one of the things the developers care most about...and the biggest point Krystal's supports make is her moveset potential.


But Krystal wasn't the only character who got screwed over. My next entry barely got the time of day because of a character already in.

2. Sceptile
With Ivysaur gone, there are no characters right now with the plant-based powers of a Grass type. With a one-two-three punch of fan support--the most popular Grass starter--paving the way further than any other Pokémon character seems to have gone, relevance from Omega Ruby and Alpha Sapphire gaining the attention of the Smash fanbase, and the high moveset potential many Pokémon naturally have, Sceptile has a legitimate chance to do something with that wide open thematic niche. Mewtwo has only made a small dent in the support for other Pokémon characters, and Scep's biggest roadblock, the idea that we couldn't possibly get another Pokémon, doesn't hold any ground.


I actually had a lot of trouble finding a #3. Paper Mario was dealt a similar fate by people assuming we won't get a Mario character as DLC, as well as others who seemed to care more about him being another version of Mario than the fact that he'd lean toward playing completely different. And yet, despite that, I feel like his final rating was pretty fair.

For my third pick...I think I have to go to recent events.

3. Tetra
Did anyone see Hyrule Warriors 3D coming? With a surprise port leaked a few days early, now everyone's back to talking about fan favorite Tetra again. Depending on how this turns out, she could end up a flavor of the month, and from there, who knows how much support she'll sustain? It'll depend on how many people stay interested in Tetra and if her abilities in Hyrule Warriors spur fans' imaginations as much as Impa's did.

I admit it's rather shaky, and she wasn't underrated by much. I did say I had trouble deciding on one. >_>


Most Accurately Rated

This one's such a crapshoot. Anything we assume is accurate could change drastically in a short time (See: Konami). I don't feel like I can reliably call this one. I abstain.
 
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Logo12

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Well, you really don't need to make a "most accurate", but someone did anyway.

For the argument about "no 2 reps from same franchise for DLC", while this is not proved, it is however likely. Sure they could really do so, but assuming the number of DLCs won't exceed 10 (10 is already too much tho imo), having 2 reps from the same franchise might really seem too much, or at least unlikely. Which brings down to our main topic: Chances. While this argument will not make them an absolute impossibility, it must be dropping their chances by a bit.
 
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It's big letter day!

Most Overrated:

Chibi-Robo
I've seen ratings in the 30% because of his new game.
Okay, a new game is cool.
But this one is a gimmick platformer that will probably be in the budget boxes in no-time.
Amiibo's are nice, but unless his amiibo will be used in other games and series, it's not the hugest of pros.

Runner up: Pichu
A veteran that didn't even bother to come back to Brawl.

Honorable Mention:
Ray-Man
Iconic or not, he shouldn't sit at 1/3th chance and above Paper Mario, Krystal and Captain Toad.

Most Underrated:
Abstain.
 

FalKoopa

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Since people's opinions on what is and isn't overrated can wildly vary, I'd request that people don't call out others on their choices today.

MOST OVERRATED:
  1. Inklings - Granted, they were rated before the costumes were revealed, but we should have re-rated them sometime later. Although I won't say that it rules them out altogether, it does reduce their chance considerably.
  2. Ice Climbers - A near-30% rating is a little too high for a character whose absence was specifically explained by Sakurai.
  3. Snake - Konami is an utter mess right now, and an almost 30% chance is rather high.
MOST UNDERRATED:
  1. Tetra - I think she deserves to have a higher score (30%-ish) as she's quite relevant right now, with her inclusion in Hyrule Warriors and Wind Waker HD was always there.
  2. Krystal - It all depends on Star Fox Wii U, but it's highly unlikely that Nintendo would ditch an important character like her despite her mixed reception, if Tingle is any indication.
  3. Prof. Layton - I know, he's a 3rd party, but I believe he's the most likely 3rd party for inclusion, except for probably Rayman.

:231:
 
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Most overrated
1. Inkling (costumes)
2. Ice Climbers (problems with 3DS)
3. Young Link (similar with Toon Link, lack of demand, he isn't more likely than Pichu)

Honorable mentions: Snake, Rayman, Daisy, Sceptile

Most underrated
1. Bandana Dee
2. Captain Toad
Both should have a little higher rating.

Most accurate
1. King K. Rool
2. Dixie Kong
3. Isaac
 
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FalKoopa

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Looks like the 2nd and 3rd characters from the Chance Charts are going to be confirmed very soon. With >85% chance ratings, give yourself a pat on the back for getting two characters correct.

Both had marginally positive want scores at 55% and 52% respectively, but we'll have to make a Lucas, Roy & Ryu satisfaction day soon enough.

:231:
 
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TallT

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Looks like the 2nd and 3rd characters from the Chance Charts are going to be confirmed very soon. With >85% chance ratings, give yourself a pat on the back for getting two characters correct.

Both had marginally positive want scores at 55% and 52% respectively, but we'll have to make a Lucas, Roy & Ryu satisfaction day soon enough.

:231:
https://youtu.be/Nmo6rFJDFsA
confirmed
 
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