Rate their Chances: the DLC Edition. Day: 192: The final day

[Curious Villager]

Wow, I missed a lot since I went off for that interview today.....

Granted its Young Link we are talking about but still....

 

[True Blue Warrior]

Wow, I missed a lot since I went off for that interview today.....

Granted its Young Link we are talking about but still....

Everyone loves that guy!

 

[Curious Villager]

Everyone loves that guy!

Well he is the Hero of Time!

I guess his popularity isn't so Timeless when it comes to Smash Bros though................. :T

 

[Sir Gengar de Èctoplasma]

He probably has a load of characters pre-planned, and given that Sakurai wants to make veteran fans happy with Lucas and Mewtwo, he might do the same with other veterans, like Young Link, given the many ways he could get considered.

Considering the amount of time developing a character takes, I doubt he has many pre-planned characters (and we already have four confirmed). He will probably start developing ballot characters in October, possibly even earlier. He doesn't have time to bring back all veterans (and we still have more popular ones like Wolf and Snake left).

 

[Fire_Voyager]

Would be interesting if they could implement young link as a skin for toon link? Like all the different bowser junior skins.

This is the only good idea I read today about getting Young Link...

 

[BluePikmin11]

- Just because people like a game does not necessarily translate into character popularity. WFT sold millions, yet nobody supported her. Chrom ended up with a split fan base despite selling well too.

You're only further proving my point.

2 - True, he's a veterain, but one of the least supported ones, second only to Pichu. Check out this thread, and you see where veteran status is held highly he's struggling to get a 5% approval to disproval rating. Compared to many characters, that's not very good.

Still a veteran that people want to come back, and you know Sakurai knows the pain of cutting characters that people mained.

3 - While I don't have a counter to that popularity, it is entirety possible Sakurai thinks that Toon Link is a good enough successor to Young Link.

I will agree on this, but it's also possible that he can revamp his moveset a little so that he can least give Young Link a not-so-similar playstyle to Toon Link and give him a new appeal.

4 - The Zelda fan base seems to want many other characters. Many are sick of having two clones, one of which comes from a different franchisee. Tetra, Vaati, Ganon, Impa, Tingle, etc. are typically more supported among Zelda fans than him.

I'm just pointing out that there are existing fanbases that would buy his inclusion, not necessarily saying that the demand is high.

My question is if Sakurai will even attempt to bring him back. Remember what he said about Chrom. He considered him, but felt that he added to little and chose Robin instead. He has a president of skipping over characters he has no interest in, even after considering them. With Toon Link acting as a replacement, he might not want to work again.

He's already an established character in Smash already, he doesn't have to go through criteria in which Chrom had to be in.

Responding to FalKoopa's points, unlike in Maro Kart, a Smash Brother character is significantly more work. They require little balancing and not nearly as many animations. The two are not nearly comparable.

Didn't the guys who made Mario Kart 8 wanted make the game more balanced though, I'm sure they are comparable to a somewhat good extent, but not fully.

It's pointless because Young Link and toon Link might as well be the same person for all the difference it makes. They both were in for the purpose of representing an important aspect of the LoZ franchise- Child Links. As Toon Link is here, ergo Young Link has no reason to be in and thus is redundant.

He does have one legiitmate reason to come back for some people, and that reason is him being a veteran that people want to come back so they can main him again. He's not completely redundant in reality.

He doesn't have time to bring back all veterans (and we still have more popular ones like Wolf and Snake left).

Of course he does have all the time in the world to bring back all veterans though, he's no longer in a state where he has a limited amount of characters to bring back or add and create a load of features for two versions of the game. This is the time where he can make said characters who people mained before and make them satisfied again.

 

[Sir Gengar de Èctoplasma]

Of course he does have all the time in the world to bring back all veterans though, he's no longer in a state where he has a limited amount of characters to bring back or add and create a load of features for two versions of the game. This is the time where he can make said characters who people mained before and make them satisfied again.

He's currently working on at least three characters, three months are remaing until the ballot ends, after which he probably starts working on ballot characters, do you seriously think that he has time to bring back ICs, Wolf, Snake, Squirtle, Ivysaur, Pichu and Young Link? That's seven characters, five of which are unique, and ICs have the 3DS issue.

EDIT: Also, he might work on DLC stages, modes and costumes, which also take development time.

 

[BluePikmin11]

He's currently working on at least three characters, three months are remaing until the ballot ends, after which he probably starts working on ballot characters, do you seriously think that he has time to bring back ICs, Wolf, Snake, Squirtle, Ivysaur, Pichu and Young Link? That's seven characters, five of which are unique, and ICs have the 3DS issue.

Yes, he doesn't have a whole game and roster to make, which is a big layoff of time. He doesn't have to worry about it anymore and he can focus on character that have been cut in other Smash games. I'm very certain that is enough time. Really the only iffy veterans are IC themselves with 3DS limitations, but that's another topic.

 

[Sir Gengar de Èctoplasma]

Yes, he doesn't have a whole game and roster to make, which is a big layoff of time. He doesn't have to worry about it anymore and he can focus on character that have been cut in other Smash games. I'm very certain that is enough time. Really the only iffy veterans are IC themselves with 3DS limitations, but that's another topic.

We don't know if he is focusing on cut veterans. We are getting a non-veteran pre-ballot character (Ryu), he might not be the only one, and my edited post mentions the possiblity of DLC stages, modes and more costumes.

 

[StormC]

Skipping all of the above dialogue...

Chance: 15%. It's possible, but a huge stretch.

Want: 0%. What we definitely don't need are more Links and more clones.

Beast Ganon 5x

Dark Samus prediction: 1%

 

[BluePikmin11]

We don't know if he is focusing on cut veterans. We are getting a non-veteran pre-ballot character (Ryu), he might not be the only one, and my edited post mentions the possiblity of DLC stages, modes and more costumes.

But him mentioning how cutting veterans can be painful is a sign towards this, moreso than the ballot contenders themselves because he's specifically talks about veterans.
And yeah other content is possible, but I could say the same thing with all other characters too, that's not a wall to YL's inclusion.

 

[Sir Gengar de Èctoplasma]

But him mentioning how cutting veterans can be painful is a sign towards this, moreso than the ballot contenders themselves because he's specifically talks about veterans.
And yeah other content is possible, but I could say the same thing with all other characters too, that's not a wall to YL's inclusion.

I did not say it's a wall against YL's inclusion, I meant it's a wall against including all veterans. And yes, Sakurai's statement could be sign towards that, but it's not certain.

 

[BluePikmin11]

I did not say it's a wall against YL's inclusion, I meant it's a wall against including all veterans. And yes, Sakurai's statement could be sign towards that, but it's not certain.

If time constraints is what you're referring to, I already told you that it's not much of a case with DLC.
And it certainly feels a lot more certain than expecting the majority of the characters to be popular choices, at least he's talking about a specific type of character when it came to interviewing Sakurai. If Sakurai said he would be adding specifically popular characters for DLC, then I would be expecting more of that to happen, but it's not the specific case.

 

[Sir Gengar de Èctoplasma]

If time constraints is what you're referring to, I already told you that it's not much of a case with DLC.
And it certainly feels a lot more certain than expecting the majority of the characters to be popular choices, at least he's talking about a specific type of character when it came to interviewing Sakurai. If Sakurai said he would be adding specifically popular characters for DLC, then I would be expecting more of that to happen, but it's not the specific case.

Having a ballot asking fans which character would they like to see in Smash and then concentrating on bringing all veterans back over popular ballot newcomers would make the whole ballot redundant.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Having a ballot asking fans which character would they like to see in Smash and then concentrating on bringing all veterans back over popular ballot newcomers would make the whole ballot redundant.

He's probably going to at least answer a few of the ballot suggestions to consider, but I see the rest of the choices being made by Sakurai himself.

 

[False Sense]

He's probably going to at least answer a few of the ballot suggestions to consider, but I see the rest of the choices being made by Sakurai himself.

And your evidence to support this assumption?

 

[Drason]

Young Link
Chance: 95%
Young link is a well missed veteran from Melee and seeing as how Sakurai isn't on a strict time limit this time, his chances are pretty likely
Want:100%
I Mained Young Link in Melee along with Roy both of which I'd love to see back
Nominations:
TalimX5(SoulCalibur)

 

[Drason]

And your evidence to support this assumption?

He can't really prove it its just an assumption, but knowing what Sakurai is going to do is up to Sakurai

 

[BluePikmin11]

And your evidence to support this assumption?

None as of yet, other than him saying he hasn't picked a unique newcomer strictly based on popularity in one interview I read and his variety on newcomer choices most of them being not the most popular suggestions.

 

[False Sense]

None as of yet, other than him saying he hasn't picked a unique newcomer strictly based on popularity in one interview I read and his variety on newcomer choices most of them being not the most popular suggestions.

But that was for the main roster, was it not?

DLC is fundamentally different from the main game. Each individual piece of content created must have enough appeal to sell on its own, without the backup of an entire game. That's why popularity is arguably more important than ever, because popular characters can sell. Characters that won't sell as well are weaker choices for DLC.

 

[Drason]

But that was for the main roster, was it not?

DLC is fundamentally different from the main game. Each individual piece of content created must have enough appeal to sell on its own, without the backup of an entire game. That's why popularity is arguably more important than ever, because popular characters can sell. Characters that won't sell as well are weaker choices for DLC.

The veterans are popular choices even though Young Link doesn't have the highest ratio he'll sell

 

[Delzethin]

Blue, you're assuming some things you probably shouldn't.

Your main argument is that Young Link could get the nod due to veteran status and having a few fans, then getting a revamp of some level in order to appeal to more people. You argue that his inclusion is basically self-evident, that being in a previous Smash game automatically gives him precedent, that'd the developers would favor him over so many other DLC candidates just because of that.

But why would Young Link get special treatment? The DLC characters that have been confirmed so far were both heavily requested, whereas Young Link is barely a blip on the radar. Mewtwo and Lucas also had the benefit of not being full clones originally, and therefore not feeling redundant next to anyone we currently have. And so why would the developers get invested enough in a character with low popularity that they'd have to spend as much time revamping as a newcomer in order to justify adding him, and still risk there being a lack of interest in him?

I'm not saying it couldn't happen...but it doesn't seem all that likely.

None as of yet, other than him saying he hasn't picked a unique newcomer strictly based on popularity in one interview I read and his variety on newcomer choices most of them being not the most popular suggestions.

Popularity's a factor when it comes to optional content, though. Why take a massive risk on a character with lukewarm reception whose moveset potential is limited when there are so many other compelling options?

That's another thing. He didn't just draw characters out of a hat. Moveset potential is a big deal that gets shoved to the side too often when speculating characters. Sakurai didn't arbitrarily turn down Chrom and approve Robin, he did it because Robin's potential was so much greater and so much more interesting. Meanwhile, in order for Young Link to be interesting, they'd need to take creative liberties from his original moveset--something they don't do often--and he'd still likely have moves that felt too similar to the other Links.

Acting like he'll randomly decide to work on a character you happen to be a fan of? I'm not saying it couldn't happen, but saying it's likely is a bit of a reach, isn't it?

 

[Sarki Soliloquy]

The veterans are popular choices even though Young Link doesn't have the highest ratio he'll sell

If you're saying that he's guarenteed sales just for being a Smash DLC character and he'll be recognized for his veteran status, then there really isn't much going for him that'll give him a bigger impact than the two characters we already got and are getting.

 

[False Sense]

The veterans are popular choices even though Young Link doesn't have the highest ratio he'll sell

Just because a character is a veteran doesn't guarantee them popularity. It's true that almost all the veterans are popular choices, but Young Link is not.

 

[Sir Gengar de Èctoplasma]

If you're saying that he's guarenteed sales just for being a Smash DLC character and he'll be recognized for his veteran status, then there really isn't much going for him that'll give him a bigger impact than the two characters we already got and are getting.

He might be biased towards Young Link. What makes me think that?

This:

Young Link
Chance: 95%

 

[Leaf_It]

So anyway....

Young Link
Chance: 10%

Want: 50%
I have nothing against him, though it would be nice to have a new comer, I wouldn't mind Young Link.

Prediction: abstain.

Nominate:
x5 Isaac (The Binding of Isaac)

 

[smileMasky]

Young link
chance: 8%
he was in melee but got replaced by toon link and he's gotten his moves in as customs but that did not stop Lucas ._. I don't see him coming back although they can give him some moves from melee like the jab combo and his fire arrow and such or a new move set all together. but I think we need a good amount of out cry for him to be considered.

Want 20%
ehh.... I don't know, a new move set would be nice. But seeing as mew two, Dr. mario and eventually roy have had move set in tact I don't want it.

Nomination
Django x2
3rd party 2nds x2
starman Pro wrestling x1

 

[Curious Villager]

I kinda wish E3 would come soon and we'd get more info on how DLC will actually go for this game. Because one DLC character who was a part of a Club Nintendo promotion (so he kinda had to be sold on his own) and another just being up in the air until further notice (aka Lucas) is kinda difficult to gauge how DLC will actually be handled, and the closest thing we really have to go with is the AOC Shop on the 3DS version.....

Because from the looks of things, we are mainly talking under the assumption that all DLC characters will be sold completely on their own just like Mewtwo.....

 

[YoshiandToad]

If done right it certainly can, even Mario Kart 8 does it with Dry Bowser, Tanooki Mario, and Cat Peach.
Sakurai is known to make unpopular characters look like attracting choices to play as, and that also can be a selling point into buying a character.

I was going to leave this alone, but this particular line grabbed my attention.

Nobody bought MK8's DLC for Dry Bowser or the his and her furry cosplay set. They weren't even the marketed characters. The DLC sold because it's Link and Animal Crossing characters and that said characters came with four whole new cups.

Far less people would of thrown money at it if Dry Bowser, Cat Peach and Tanooki Mario had come in their own set, especially without any courses. These characters were only welcomed because they came with frankly 'better' characters. Given the choice between Cat Peach and Tanooki Mario in a pack with Link or Diddy Kong and Bowser Jr in a pack with Link, most people would pick the latter option.

With that said; Young Link would be marketed alone, because Smash characters take a lot of time to make in comparison to Mario Kart models.

The two can't really be compared since they're working on different sales types.

 

[Drason]

If you're saying that he's guarenteed sales just for being a Smash DLC character and he'll be recognized for his veteran status, then there really isn't much going for him that'll give him a bigger impact than the two characters we already got and are getting.

Well no, just going by vet status is not really valid but, he had TWO very popular games sell (Ocarina of Time & Majora's Mask 3D)

 

[Sarki Soliloquy]

Well no, just going by vet status is not really valid but, he had TWO very popular games sell (Ocarina of Time & Majora's Mask 3D)

Two words: muh relevancy.

 

[Drason]

Two words: muh relevancy.

Wha?

 

[Burruni]

Well no, just going by vet status is not really valid but, he had TWO very popular games sell (Ocarina of Time & Majora's Mask 3D)

I'm gonna ask this.
For anyone who HASN'T played melee and saw .

The kids who got into Zelda BY OoT & MM 3D over the past 5 years, or even got in around the time of Twilight Princess and fairly recently fell in love by the remakes.

Who of them aren't going to see & and think that the character that they really liked from that game is already in... twice?

 

[Drason]

I'm gonna ask this.
For anyone who HASN'T played melee and saw .

The kids who got into Zelda BY OoT & MM 3D over the past 5 years, or even got in around the time of Twilight Princess and fairly recently fell in love by the remakes.

Who of them aren't going to see & and think that the character that they really liked from that game is already in... twice?

Uuuuh,.....My mind has drawn a blank l:l

 

[BluePikmin11]

But that was for the main roster, was it not?

DLC is fundamentally different from the main game. Each individual piece of content created must have enough appeal to sell on its own, without the backup of an entire game. That's why popularity is arguably more important than ever, because popular characters can sell. Characters that won't sell as well are weaker choices for DLC.

Quite frankly Young Link being a veteran from the Zelda is enough appeal to sell really. You just don't see it.

But why would Young Link get special treatment? The DLC characters that have been confirmed so far were both heavily requested, whereas Young Link is barely a blip on the radar. Mewtwo and Lucas also had the benefit of not being full clones originally, and therefore not feeling redundant next to anyone we currently have. And so why would the developers get invested enough in a character with low popularity that they'd have to spend as much time revamping as a newcomer in order to justify adding him, and still risk there being a lack of interest in him?

I'm not saying it couldn't happen...but it doesn't seem all that likely.

Because he's the only character who currently has no standout-characteristics from his clone.
Roy has his middle of the sword play style.
Pichu has his injuring risky mechanic.
Wolf, you probably know already by now.
There's no real reason to change any of those clones, except Young Link.
Young Link has barely any stand-out differences since Toon Link has taken his quick nimble play style. That's why I think it feels logical that he'd be the only one to get a bit of a moveset revamp, so he can at least differentiate from Toon Link.

Popularity's a factor when it comes to optional content, though. Why take a massive risk on a character with lukewarm reception whose moveset potential is limited when there are so many other compelling options?

It's not a risk as long as it's a Smash Bros. character, it's going to sell well, likely not as well as the others, but still a pretty notable amount.

That's another thing. He didn't just draw characters out of a hat. Moveset potential is a big deal that gets shoved to the side too often when speculating characters. Sakurai didn't arbitrarily turn down Chrom and approve Robin, he did it because Robin's potential was so much greater and so much more interesting. Meanwhile, in order for Young Link to be interesting, they'd need to take creative liberties from his original moveset--something they don't do often--and he'd still likely have moves that felt too similar to the other Links.

Acting like he'll randomly decide to work on a character you happen to be a fan of? I'm not saying it couldn't happen, but saying it's likely is a bit of a reach, isn't it?

He might be biased towards Young Link. What makes me think that?

This:

Again, no reason to be a villain again. :Y
Just let it be if he's that confident he'll get in.

I was going to leave this alone, but this particular line grabbed my attention.

Nobody bought MK8's DLC for Dry Bowser or the his and her furry cosplay set. They weren't even the marketed characters. The DLC sold because it's Link and Animal Crossing characters and that said characters came with four whole new cups.

Far less people would of thrown money at it if Dry Bowser, Cat Peach and Tanooki Mario had come in their own set, especially without any courses. These characters were only welcomed because they came with frankly 'better' characters. Given the choice between Cat Peach and Tanooki Mario in a pack with Link or Diddy Kong and Bowser Jr in a pack with Link, most people would pick the latter option.

With that said; Young Link would be marketed alone, because Smash characters take a lot of time to make in comparison to Mario Kart models.

The two can't really be compared since they're working on different sales types.

Yeah I know already, but it's an example of how you can make less hype things sell well. If it was sold separately it would not have sold as well.
It would highly logical to bundle Young Link with another character so the sales go well for him. I honestly don't get why people say it's a bad option, even the DLC costumes in Smash Bros do it too, why shouldn't characters too?

 

[Sarki Soliloquy]

Wha?

It's a logic fallacy coined by the Smash speculation community. But it can extend to many other things too. By pointing out that Young Link would sell just because OoT3D & MM3D were really popular, you're saying that a character's appearance in recent games discounts them from a wide margin over satisfying other factors along with that (uniqueness, iconicity, etc.)

You Young Link supporters are really giving me a tough sale here.

 

[BluePikmin11]

It's a logic fallacy coined by the Smash speculation community. But it can extend to many other things too. By pointing out that Young Link would sell just because OoT3D & MM3D were really popular, you're saying that a character's appearance in recent games discounts them from a wide margin over satisfying other factors along with that (uniqueness, iconicity, etc.)

You Young Link supporters are really giving me a tough sale here.

Let's calm down here, I know he probably isn't really logical of Nintendo and Smash, but you shouldn't give him a hard time here.

 

[A Distant Demon]

It would highly logical to bundle Young Link with another character so the sales go well for him. I honestly don't get why people say it's a bad option, even the DLC costumes in Smash Bros do it too, why shouldn't characters too?

but we havent had any bundles for just characters announced. Now you're adding to ANOTHER variable into the mix :/

and as for "being a villain"

Quite frankly Young Link being a veteran from the Zelda is enough appeal to sell really. You just don't see it.

you're guilty of it as well. this is very snarky. even if you dont intend it, anyone you are calling a villain doesnt intend it either.

 

[False Sense]

Quite frankly Young Link being a veteran from the Zelda is enough appeal to sell really. You just don't see it.

Yeah I know already, but it's an example of how you can make less hype things sell well. If it was sold separately it would not have sold as well.
It would highly logical to bundle Young Link with another character so the sales go well for him. I honestly don't get why people say it's a bad option, even the DLC costumes in Smash Bros do it too, why shouldn't characters too?

You're contradicting yourself. You say that Young Link has enough appeal to sell, while also acknowledging that Young Link would need a revamp or a bundle to sell best.

And honestly, all this talk of bundles and revamps... These are just excuses to add Young Link, a way of justifying his inclusion while dancing around the fundamental problems.

You say it's highly logical to bundle Young Link for him to sell well. But it's highly illogical to add a DLC character that won't sell well to begin with.

 

[Drason]

You're contradicting yourself. You say that Young Link has enough appeal to sell, while also acknowledging that Young Link would need a revamp or a bundle to sell best.

And honestly, all this talk of bundles and revamps... These are just excuses to add Young Link, a way of justifying his inclusion while dancing around the fundamental problems.

You say it's highly logical to bundle Young Link for him to sell well. But it's highly illogical to add a DLC character that won't sell well to begin with.

Well at the end of the day its really up to the mastermind to decide what DLC characters would be added while there are factors you have to look for most of the time it wouldn't even matter