Rate their Chances: the DLC Edition. Day: 192: The final day

[Champ Gold]

Prof. Layton

Chance:12%
I don't expect him to get a lot of pull toward Nintendo or not expect any shot from him. Level 5 franchises would already be in if they were owned by Nintendo


Want: Abstain
I never played the games, didn't look interesting and my taste in Mystery games is pretty particular. Plus I was always turned off by the idea for him to be a fighter but I am really surprised he doesn't have a trophy.

Nominations:
Starman x6
Advance Wars rep

 

[Laniv]

Prof. Layton

Chance: 50%
He seems pretty close with Nintendo, so it could go either way.

Want: Abstain
Never played the games.

Nominate Concept: Voice Toggle x 5

 

[PK_Wonder]

This day is full of interesting discussion. It really inspires me to finally check out the Professor Layton series. I've had the Curious Village sitting on my shelf as backlog for awhile. If I enjoy it as much as I expect, I will move on to the rest of the series.

I give Professor Layton a 7.5% chance, which is very generous for a third party character. He is very popular, represents a unique niche, has a fantastic "Nintendo" feel with him (and the history with them to back it up), and Level-5 seems to have some interest in him being included in Smash. His only issues are the fact that he is a third party character, giving him even more competition, many of whom are more requested.

At the moment, I will give a 35% to the want score because I haven't properly played his series but consider him a worthwhile candidate with intriguing potential. So this is a solid base score from me all things considered.

predict - 31%

nominate:
Black Mage x2
Slime x2
Agnes Oblige x1

Nominations:
Starman x6
Advance Wars rep

You get five nominations a day unless you win extra noms. How would you like me to adjust this?

 

[Champ Gold]

This day is full of interesting discussion. It really inspires me to finally check out the Professor Layton series. I've had the Curious Village sitting on my shelf as backlog for awhile. If I enjoy it as much as I expect, I will move on to the rest of the series.

I give Professor Layton a 7.5% chance, which is very generous for a third party character. He is very popular, represents a unique niche, has a fantastic "Nintendo" feel with him (and the history with them to back it up), and Level-5 seems to have some interest in him being included in Smash. His only issues are the fact that he is a third party character, giving him even more competition, many of whom are more requested.

At the moment, I will give a 35% to the want score because I haven't properly played his series but consider him a worthwhile candidate with intriguing potential. So this is a solid base score from me all things considered.

predict - 31%

nominate:
Black Mage x2
Slime x2
Agnes Oblige x1




You get five nominations a day unless you win extra noms. How would you like me to adjust this?

Don't count it. I'm the only one that cares about him so I'm gonna nominate him every time. If it doesn't count, I'll understand but I won't stop.

 

[Deleted member]

The Directory has been updated.

Professor Layton and the Missing Smash Invitation
Chance: 3%
He has a close relationship with Nintendo (practically all of his games are on Nintendo consoles), has decent sales, and is actually pretty requested (more specifically in Europe).
The main detriments come from the fact that he is a third party (Level-5 is a third party company, not first or second), a newcomer (which would mean that he would take more time), and he isn't the most demanded of newcomers out there.

Want: 80%
I haven't played any Layton games and thus lack a connection with him, lowering my want score.
However, I think Layton can be cool as an unconventional fighter, much like Phoenix Wright.

DLC Characters Get Custom Moves Prediction: 50.00%
I... uhh... dunno?

Nominations: DLC Music 5x

 

[PK_Wonder]

Don't count it. I'm the only one that cares about him so I'm gonna nominate him every time. If it doesn't count, I'll understand but I won't stop.

The character counts, that's not the issue. I'm just saying you only get x5 nominations a day. You put Starman x6 + 1 for a concept for a total of 7 nominations. If Starman x5 is what you want, you got it.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Sakurai is probably going to go through every single character that has been suggested, he'll probably look at the top 100-1000 characters and go from there. And I'm pretty sure Layton is around that mark to get considered if he's not being planned pre-ballot wise.

 

[FraserLazer]

Professor layton Chance 45%
has a fair chance as he is a popular and successful franchise that could add a new and interesting fighter (am i the only one slightly disappointed buy purchasing mewtwo) that could also bring in a wider audience. But he is third party and not from a major company like capcom or sega also might not be as historically iconic as other third parties. main problem for him is sakuri no one can predict that guy so we would just have to wait.

Want: 100%
He could make such an interesting character and that is what i want as dlc an interesting character who stands out in the current roster.

 

[NebulaWords]

DAY 39 : Professor Layton
Chance : 25%

So I just learned that Layton is a third party game. So it kinda hurts his chance, despite the belief that party rules won't count in this ballot-- But he's a very popular character from a popular franchise and have a support base so he could have a chance.
But he got quite a competition with the other 3rd party candidates (including the ones I want) so he have to fight hard to make it...

Want : 67%
I love Professor Layton's game and he could have a very interresting moveset ! Plus the Smash universe needs a gentleman to teach them gallantry~ I would love a fanart where Prof.Layton is making a Gentleman lesson to the other Smashers :'D Or have them make a puzzle.
Plus how many "THIS REMINDS ME OF A PUZZLE !" joke could you make with all these characters ? Heck, I bet you can have 60 puzzles just with Mario :'D Imagine the promo posters of Prof.Layton ! It could be great !
Also, Luke Assist Trophee, do it.

Prediction :
Concept : DLC gets custom moves : 37.68%

Nomination : Klonoa (Klonoa) x5

 

[Erureido]

Chance: 50%

The real factor that is holding him back from becoming a DLC fighter is that he is third party character, and Sakurai is pretty strict about third parties when it comes to Smash Bros. Of course, newer Level 5 games that are becoming extremely popular like Yokei Watch, where a Level 5 representative could be used from these games, are another reason why Layton may not make it into Smash Bros.

As for everything else? Personally, I think he has a pretty good shot for a third party character. For starters, all of his games were Nintendo exclusives, being released solely on the Nintendo DS and 3DS respectively. Nintendo and Level-5, though separate video game companies, are on good terms with each other. The Inazuma Eleven anime (which is based on a Level 5 game) appeared on the Nintendo Anime Channel in Japan. More importantly, Nintendo is in charge of distributing the Layton games for the international audience, so you could say he's roughly 40-50% Nintendo in that regard if you take into account that international means "outside of Japan."

Aside from that, Layton actually has a lot of potential for what his moveset can be. Yes, he is a very capable fencer, but there's a lot more to him than that. Throughout the series, he has demonstrated his intellectual genius by creating various gadgets/weapons by combining parts together. To name them all:

• Curious Village: The Custom Glider
• Unwound Future: The Coin-Slot Machine Gun
• Last Specter: The Stone-Launching Catapult
• Eternal Diva (the Layton movie): The Man-Made Helicopter
• Azran Legacy: The Fossil Glider

See where this is going? One can create Layton's special moveset based around all of the inventions and weapons he has created. There are many more he makes throughout the series, mainly for the important puzzles, but those five I have mentioned are the most notable.

Speaking of puzzles, one can create a moveset for Layton based around the puzzles he solves throughout the series. The hint coins he finds and uses can also be incorporated into his moveset very nicely as well; for instance, they could pop up out of the ground and lead to some sort of a counter-move.

Professor Layton has also been a solidly requested character for Smash Bros over the past few years from what I've seen. Even the creators of the Layton games admitted they would love to see Layton appear in Super Smash Bros as a playable fighter.

There has also been a growing female audience for the Layton series. In fact, the games have been well targeted towards them that it's the reason why there are voice actors and actresses for the games. That being said, Professor Layton's inclusion into Smash Bros would be a great way to bring female gamers to the Smash Bros scene.

Want: 100%

Professor Layton is the character I want to see the most in Super Smash Bros. I just see so much potential to what he will bring that I think he'd a worthy addition to the Smash Bros roster. I'm also a huge fan of the Professor Layton series, being very familiar with all of its games, and when I first learned about Smash Bros 4, I remember thinking of how well he could work in the roster. If I see his reveal into Smash Bros become a reality, it'll be the happiest day in my life! His reveal trailer would be the one trailer I would absolutely scream with excitement over, practically as loud as everyone else's reactions when they learned Mewtwo was going to appear as DLC.

Nominations:

I really don't have much in terms of supporting other characters that are currently on the list. In fact, my nominations are going to go to two characters who I really want to see in Smash Bros, but have slim chances compared to most of the other fighters that have been listed. Regardless, I'm still going to nominate them because there is a glimmer of hope within me that wants to see them appear as DLC fighters, and they are the only other fighters I'm interested in for Smash Bros aside from Professor Layton.

Jean Descole: x3 (Descole is the main villain of the second trilogy of the Layton games and very capable fighter in all levels)
Gallade: x2 (Gallade is a Pokemon, my favorite as well, that first appeared in the Pokemon Diamond/Pearl games who recently got a real cool-looking mega-evolution in OR/AS. He is the split evolution of Gardevoir and is a Psychic/Fighting type.)

 

[FalKoopa]

A TRUE GENTLEMAN LEAVES NO CHARACTER UNRATED.
PROF LAYTON:
CHANCE: 10%
WANT: 100%

Prof. Layton has had a very close relation with Nintendo, being exclusive to the DS and 3DS, and one of Level-5's most recognisable and successful characters. His games also offer a wealth of items which can be used as a moveset, like the slot machine gun, camera, robot dog, etc. Not to mention he would certainly sell well.

As for want, I would absolutely kill to see him included. He's one of my favourite video game characters of all time, and his games are absolutely top-notch. I personally believe that he is one of the most deserving 3rd parties too.

DLC CUSTOM MOVES: 54%

ASHLEY × 5

 

[Martingale]

Sakurai is probably going to go through every single character that has been suggested, he'll probably look at the top 100-1000 characters and go from there. And I'm pretty sure Layton is around that mark to get considered if he's not being planned pre-ballot wise.

I prefer the notion that Sakurai goes to a public place, screams the character's name, and ranks them based on how many high-gives he gets. Is there any more sound system for gauging what the public want?

 

[Leafeon523]

The Professor
Chance: ???% This reminds me of a puzzle!

Puzzle #123 See If you can solve it!
Professor Layton's is a third party, so his chance score is low. In fact, the number is spelt with only two letters! What could it be?

Luke: I can't think of a single number with only two letters, Professor!
Layton: It appears that the answer is no ordinary number. We need to view this puzzle from a different angle.
Luke: Maybe we should use a hint coin.

Hint Coin#1: The number is between three and four.

Layton: So I was right to believe that this number is a decimal.
Luke: But that still doesn't leave us any closer to finding a number with two letters!
Layton: This number clearly is spelt in more than one manner. Maybe a second hint coin would shed some light on the answer?

Hint Coin#2: Despite your thoughts being infinite, make sure that they always come full circle.

Luke: That hint was no help at all!
Layton: I believe that I have figured out the solution!
Luke: Really? What is it professor?
Layton: You simply need to approach this puzzle from a mathematical perspective. Use the final hint coin and I believe you will understand.

Hint Coin#3: The number is almost always represented by a symbol.

Luke: Symbols are often in mathematics, correct?
Layton: Precisely! And the previous hint suggests that we looks towards circles for the solution. Do you remember a symbol often associated with circles?
Luke: Of course! π is the circumference of a circle, right?
Layton: Correct! And when Pi is spelt out...
Luke: It's two letters! That means that the percentage must be...

Spoiler

Both: 3.14%!

dun
dun
dun
Correct!
*Victory music*

Want: 80%
He was awesome back in Professor Layton vs Phoenix Wright. I've been waiting for a copy of Curious Village to pop up at the used game store I visit for a year, but no luck so far (Although there have been enough copies of Diabolical Box to make my own Diabolical Box). I'm just not sure how well he would fit in with the rest of the cast.

Predicting Custom moves at 54%

Nominating 6+ dlc characters x3
KOS-MOSx2

 

[StormC]

Spoiler

1. K. Rool: 75%/100%
2. Banjo-Kazooie: 10%/70%
3. Isaac: 60%/40%
4. Bandana Dee: 50%/25%
5. Captain Toad: 25%/15%
6. Krystal: 25%/15%
7. Dixie Kong: 50%/50%
8. Impa: 50%/50%
9. Shantae: 15%/40%
10. Inklings: 55%/40%
11. Rayman: 30%/40%
12. Snake: 40%/70%
13. Wolf: 85%/65%
14. Shovel Knight: 20%/40%
15. Quote: 15%/45%
16. Ice Climbers: 10%/35%
17. Sceptile: 20%/50%
18. Wonder Red: 20%/35%
19. Promoted NPCs: 5%/Abstain
20. Henry Fleming: 15%/15%
21: Paper Mario: 30%/20%
22. Roy: 95%/0%
23. Ridley: 5%/80%
24. Chorus Kids: 25%/35%
25. DLC Alternate Costumes: 75%/75%
26. Magalor: 15%/30%
27. Midna/Link: 1%/5%
28. Ray: 20%/35%
29. Tetra: 20%/20%
30. Pichu: 15%/0%
31. Ryu: 90%/30%
32. Phoenix Wright: 15%/55%
33. Lip: 15%/35%
34. Simon Belmont: 5%/30%
35. Daisy: 15%/0%
36. Ninten: 5%/10%
37. Squirtle/Ivysaur: 20%/30%

Chance: 10%. Cult third party with good but not great support.

Want: 30%. Never played his games and not terribly interested in him as a fighter.

Beast Ganon 5x
DLC custom moves: Abstain

 

[BandanaWaddleDee]

Layton Chance: 10%
Level-5 is close to Nintendo and Layton is fairly popular, so he's not impossible, but...

Want: 0%
I DO NOT WANT LAYTON. If we get a Level-5 character in Smash, I want Endou or Jibanyan. Not this top hatted, generic looking, lame dude.

DLC characters gets customs prediction: 92.64%

Nominations:
9-Volt x5

 

[IvanQuote]

This post looks like a puzzle:

Chance: 21%

Nintendo exclusive and has a cult following, but I feel he's not as likely as some other characters for some reason.

Want: 50%

Indifferent

Custom moves for DLC predict:

Chance: 39%

Want: 76%

Noms:

Moonstruck Blossom x5

Homecoming Hijinx x5

 

[Zerp]

Spoiler

Roy C 85% W 30% (opinion has now changed to 0% want and now up to 10%)
Ridley C 5% W 70%
Chorus Kiddos C 17% W 10%
Magolor C 23% W 100%
Midna and inferior Star Wolf C 0% W 0%
Ray C 10% W 20%
Tetra C 15% W 40%
Pichu C 45% W 90%
Ryu C 75% W 5%
Daisy C 15% W2%
Ninten C 10% W 30%
Geno C 0.1% W 7%
Squirtle C 50% W 40%
Ivysaur C 40% W 70%
Dlccostumes C 75% W 90%

Professor Lay Clefairyton

Chance: 3% He's third party which definitely hurts him, as he has to compete with likes of Banjo-Kazooie and Shantae first, and then all the first party characters. He has a massive fanbase, but not to the same level of the other big players in the ballot, which means we'd have to rely on Sakurai's judgement.

Want: 0% I don't really want or care for him at all. I'd rather other characters get in first, and to be blunt, I feel his moveset would be overly generic. Sorry.

Predictions: DLC Characters get customs 10%

Nominations: Dark Matter (Kirby) x 5

 

[Scamper52596]

Professor Layton
Chance: 15%
I'll be a little generous (Yes, I consider 15% generous in this case). The main thing holding him back is his third party status, but if he were a Nintendo property there's a decent chance he would be playable already. He's got some popularity, and if Sakurai was looking for another third party I feel Layton is a contender. I'll give the puzzle solver in the top hat about 15%.
The real question is whether or not Sakurai is looking to add another third party...

Want: 35%
I haven't tried any of his games yet, but they look like they have a certain charm to them that I would enjoy. I think I'll give them a shot someday.

Prediction - DLC Custom Moves: 48.9%

Nominations:
x5 Toon Zelda

 

[YoshiandToad]

Spoiler

K. Rool
Day missed. Absent.

Banjo-Kazooie
Chance: 9%, Want: 85%

Isaac
Chance: 55%, Want: 75%

Bandana Dee
Chance: 40%, Want: 100%

Captain Toad
Chance: 45%, Want: 100%

Krystal
Chance: 25%, Want: 50%

Dixie Kong
Chance: 66%, Want: 100%

Impa
Chance: 28%, Want: 100%

Shantae
Chance: 1%, Want: 5%

Inklings
Chance: 62%, Want: 70%

Rayman
Chance: 33%, Want: 90%


Day missed. Whoops.


Chance: 100%, Want: 80%

Shovel Knight
Chance: 0.3%, Want: 0%

Quote
Chance: 0.5%, Want: 3%


Chance: 5%, Want: 10%

Sceptile
Chance: 20%, Want: 55%

Wonder Red
Chance: 15%, Want: 68%

Promoted NPCs
Chance: 25%, Want: 100%

Henry Fleming:
Day missed.

Paper Mario
Chance: 30%, Want: 75%


Chance: 99%, Want: 80%

RIDLEY
Chance: 5%, Want: 48%

Chorus Men
Chance: 9%, Want: 0%

DLC Costumes
Chance: 45%, Want: 50%

Magolor
Chance: 2%, Want: 2%

Midna (and Wolf Link)
Chance: 4%, Want: 30%

Ray MK#
Chance: 8%, Want: 23%

Tetra
Chance: 20%, Want: 25%


Chance: 45%, Want: 85%

Ryu
Chance: 99%, Want: 60%

Phoenix Wright
Day missed

Lip
Chance: 5%, Want: 35%

Simon Belmont
Chance: 2%, Want: 30%

Daisy
Chance: 15%, Want: 50%

Ninten
Chance: 1%, Want: 0%

Gee, no
Chance: 0.1%, Want: -100% (or 0%)

+
Chance: 45%, Want: 85%

Professor Layton:

Chance: 15%
If any third party is mistaken for a Nintendo character it's the Puzzle Solving Professor.

He's certainly popular, but like Phoenix Wright he doesn't exactly lend himself to a fighting moveset(Slot Machine Gun aside). He's also not as popular a suggestion as many of the other third parties we've rated thus far.

Want: 50%
I am mostly indifferent to Layton's inclusion. We could always do with more British having only Shulk(and I guess Diddy Kong due to being the country of his creation). I already have a Layton Mii, and honestly that's good enough for me.
DLC Characters get Customs Prediction(what a mouthful): 48%
Buh?

Nominations:
Vaati X 5

 

[Extremmefan]

Want: 50%
I am mostly indifferent to Layton's inclusion. We could always do with more British having only Shulk(and I guess Diddy Kong due to being the country of his creation). I already have a Layton Mii, and honestly that's good enough for me.

Strange thing is, I happen to have a Phoenix Wright Mii (that I created alone, all by myself).

 

[Smasher 101]

Spoiler

Past Chance Scores:

Roy: 99%
Ryu: 99%
Wolf: 99%
King K. Rool: 50%
Dixie Kong: 50%
Inklings: 40%
Isaac: 40%
Snake: 30%
Impa: 30%
Captain Toad: 30%
Chorus Kids: 20%
Rayman: 20%
Pichu: 20%
Bandana Dee: 20%
Paper Mario: 15%
Krystal: 15%
Squirtle: 15%
Ivysaur: 15%
Wonder Red: 15%
Tetra: 15%
Daisy: 10%
Ray: 10%
Ice Climbers: 10%
Sceptile: 5%
Magolor: 5%
Lip: 5%
Banjo-Kazooie: 5%
Henry Fleming: 3%
Ninten: 1%
Simon Belmont: 1%
Phoenix Wright: 1%
Quote: 1%
Shantae: 1%
Geno: 0.5%
Shovel Knight: 0.5%
Midna & Wolf Link: 0.5%
Ridley: 0%

DLC Alternate Costumes: 65%
Promoted NPCs: 0.5%

Past Want Scores:

Banjo-Kazooie: 100%
King K. Rool: 100%
Ice Climbers: 100%
Isaac: 100%
Ridley: 100%
Dixie Kong: 100%
Wolf: 100%
Rayman: 70%
Lip: 70%
Simon Belmont: 60%
Captain Toad: 60%
Inklings: 55%
Snake: 50%
Impa: 50%
Ray: 50%
Wonder Red: 50%
Squirtle: 40%
Magolor: 40%
Ryu: 35%
Tetra: 30%
Phoenix Wright: 25%
Roy: 20%
Bandana Dee: 20%
Ivysaur: 20%
Henry Fleming: 20%
Pichu: 20%
Paper Mario: 5%
Krystal: 5%
Ninten: 5%
Quote: 5%
Chorus Kids: 5%
Shantae: 0%
Shovel Knight: 0%
Sceptile: 0%
Daisy: 0%
Geno: 0%
Midna & Wolf Link: 0%

Promoted NPCs: 100%
DLC Alternate Costumes: 50%

Professor Layton's chances: 15%

Third party, though he's fairly popular and has close ties to Nintendo. Not the only Level 5 character in the running.

Want: 50%

Not a bad third party choice, but I don't really care either way.

DLC Customs: 43.04%

Not a clue.

Karate Joe x5

 

[Sarki Soliloquy]

Scratch Snake. I put waaaaay too much thought into vouching for Prof. Layton. I think you'll enjoy the latter sections though.

The Professor
Chance: ???% This reminds me of a puzzle!

Puzzle #123 See If you can solve it!
Professor Layton's is a third party, so his chance score is low. In fact, the number is spelt with only two letters! What could it be?

Luke: I can't think of a single number with only two letters, Professor!
Layton: It appears that the answer is no ordinary number. We need to view this puzzle from a different angle.
Luke: Maybe we should use a hint coin.
Hint Coin#1: The number is between three and four.

Layton: So I was right to believe that this number is a decimal.
Luke: But that still doesn't leave us any closer to finding a number with two letters!
Layton: This number clearly is spelt in more than one manner. Maybe a second hint coin would shed some light on the answer?

Hint Coin#2: Despite your thoughts being infinite, make sure that they always come full circle.

Luke: That hint was no help at all!
Layton: I believe that I have figured out the solution!
Luke: Really? What is it professor?
Layton: You simply need to approach this puzzle from a mathematical perspective. Use the final hint coin and I believe you will understand.

Hint Coin#3: The number is almost always represented by a symbol.

Luke: Symbols are often in mathematics, correct?
Layton: Precisely! And the previous hint suggests that we looks towards circles for the solution. Do you remember a symbol often associated with circles?
Luke: Of course! π is the circumference of a circle, right?
Layton: Correct! And when Pi is spelt out...
Luke: It's two letters! That means that the percentage must be...

Spoiler

Both: 3.14%!

dun
dun
dun
Correct!
*Victory music*

Want: 80%
He was awesome back in Professor Layton vs Phoenix Wright. I've been waiting for a copy of Curious Village to pop up at the used game store I visit for a year, but no luck so far (Although there have been enough copies of Diabolical Box to make my own Diabolical Box). I'm just not sure how well he would fit in with the rest of the cast.

Predicting Custom moves at 54%
Nominating 6+ dlc characters x3
KOS-MOSx2

Well, it may just seem that you're pioneering a new memetic to be used across forums whenever Layton discussion comes a-callin'.

Spoiler: Captain Hotcakes's Ratings History (as of 5/21/15)

Character Chance Ratings

1: Ryu - 97.7%
1: Roy - 97.7%
2: Wolf - 97.5%
3: Professor Layton - 90%
4: Rayman - 60%
5: Snake - 55%
6: Inkling - 50%
7: Sceptile - 45%
7: Krystal - 45%
8: Paper Mario: 44.5%
9: Dixie Kong - 43%
10: Wonder Red - 40%
11: Impa - 40.5%
12: Simon Belmont - 35%
13: Ice Climbers - 30%
13: Captain Toad - 30%
14: Chorus Kids - 27.5%
15: Magolor - 25%
16: Henry Fleming - 25.7%
17: Ivysaur - 23.7%
18: Squirtle - 22.5%
19: Quote - 21.5%
20: Phoenix Wright - 20%
20: Shovel Knight - 20%
21: Shantae - 20.5%
22: Tetra - 20.3%
23: Midna & Wolf Link - 10%
24: Lip - 10.5%
25: Geno - 7%
26: Ray - 5%
26: Pichu - 5%
26: Daisy - 5.7%
27: Ridley - 5.5%

Character Want Ratings

1: Professor Layton - 100%
1: Shovel Knight - 100%
1: Wolf - 100%
2: Simon Belmont - 90.5%
2: Sceptile - 90.5%
3: Shantae - 87%
4: Wonder Red - 86.5%
5: Snake - 85%
5: Impa - 85%
6: Magolor - 85.5%
7: Ice Climbers - 80%
8: Chorus Kids - 80.5%
9: Ryu - 60%
9: Paper Mario: 60%
10: Midna & Wolf Link - 60.5%
11: Phoenix Wright - 55%
12: Ridley - 50%
13: Inkling - 30%
14: Henry Fleming - 30.5%
15: Rayman - 25%
16: Quote - 23%
17: Krystal - 20%
17: Dixie Kong - 20%
18: Tetra - 20.5%
19: Squirtle - 10.7%
19: Ivysaur - 10.7%
20: Geno - 10.5%
20: Roy - 10.5%
21: Lip - 5.7%
22: Captain Toad - 5.5%
23: Ray - 4.5%
24: Pichu - 1%
24: Daisy - 1%

Concept Chance Ratings

1: DLC Alternate Costumes - 85%
2: Any NPC Becomes Playable - 65.7%
-: DLC Characters Receive Custom Moves - ?.?%

Concept Want Ratings
1: DLC Alternate Costumes - 100%
2: Any NPC Becomes Playable - 50.5%
-: DLC Characters Receive Custom Moves - ?.?%

Abstains (Inactivity)

King K. Rool
Banjo-Kazooie
Isaac
Bandana Dee

Abtsains (Indifference)

Ninten

~ ♪ ~

RATINGS

Professor Layton and the Bombastic Balloteers

Chance - 90%: The good professor is one of the more likely 3rd party candidates with so much going for him than it would seem that he's been very underestimated. Fortunately, his name hits up to the Top 10 leagues as his highest score for prelim polls, which gives further credence to his internationally-unified fanbases, with Europe being a surprisingly strong proponent of votes with his series making the biggest impact there.

Despite his dapper decorum, Hershel Layton's no slouch when it comes to legacy. He's one of the few 3rd parties available that has had their franchise break over 1 million sales as a 7th gen startup. Just until recently, they are all Nintendo exclusive too, giving him a sense of belonging amongst even Nintendo's 1st party coralle (and is, in fact, promoted alongside them a lot). He has just about 5 mainline games, an animated movie, a crossover with Phoenix "OBJECTION" Wright, a spinoff title and even a mobile game coming up after his mainline story seems to be at a close. He also forefronts a unique niche within puzzle & mystery games that have been received so well that there are a few imitators cloning Professor Layton gameplay without any nuance, most notably Dr. Lautrec.

Nintendo and Level-5, Professor Layton's developers and owners, are also in really good standing with each other. If it weren't for the Professor Layton games making such a big impact, perhaps Level-5 would be just another Sony dev and not have amazed their strong Nintendo portfolio over the past decade and one half. And now with very original, consistent games such as Inazuma Eleven and Yokai Watch rounding out their stable, you could even say that they have the potential to be the next Japanese video game giant a la Sega, Capcom, Namco, Konami, Square, etc. Right now would be perfect to establish their prominence and creativity by putting in the character that started it all into Smash. It's worth noting that Nintendo oversees publication of Level-5's games outside of Japan and Layton's creator has expressed fondness for Layton in Smash during a talk show whilst alongside Sakurai. Whether or not this cooperation is telling of just how interwoven the businesses of these two is remains to be seen. But by the looks of it, looks like Layton would have a much easier time being converted into Smash glory.

There looks to be some trouble a-brewin' for Layton as well, although the threat assessments look relatively minor than what other characters, especially 3rd parties, are dealing with. Professor Layton has been on the down-low with Level-5's plans lately. His most recent mainline game was released two years ago, which ended the professor's story as we know it. He continues to persist through spin-offs and crossovers. This is not to say his series is dead by any means. In fact, Layton 7 is his first non-Nintendo release, so this could spell that his series has grown big enough to the point where it can branch off from its main platform, indicating a dwindling of exclusivity.

Not to mention, Yokai Watch is seeing Pokémon levels of success in Japan, which may make Jibanyan more appealing to the Japanese fanbase. We're yet to see if Yokai Watch will hit as hard when it gets introduced to Western audiences. In fact, I'd say the lack of Jibanyan support worldwide measures to Layton's durability. If the Ryu sound files are anything to go by, Layton AND Jibanyan could make it in even by Smash 5. Speculators will be speculators though, and may cave a decisive split for which Level-5 character deserves to get in Smash. Yet alone which one is more likely.

Want - 100%: Look, I haven't even been in the physical proximity of a Professor Layton game and I love his character so much that I threw a vote behind him! Hell, supporting him just makes me more motivated to discover the greatness people find within his series. He's a choice that brings nearly unanimous plausibility when brought up in conversation. That's something you don't get from many 3rd parties. He's seen as a famous character worthy of Smash fame even to the uninitiated.

I mean, the gentleman investigator is an archetype Nintendo's 1st and 2nd party offering don't even have available! He'd be a discount Phoenix Wright in a sense. By this, I mean he could be the character who uses witz and puzzle-solving to fight without having to go through a company that already has the largest amount of content coming into Smash.

To those of you who are dismissing Hershel Layton just because his fighting style isn't as apparent as most characters, you are imaginatively bankrupt and desperately need to open your mind if you want to accurately rate characters.

Smash has a history of incorporating source material of non-combatant characters into fleshed-out movesets. In fact, it's a main focus of Smash 4 more than any previous game. Villager, Wii Fit Trainer, and even Duck Hunt exemplify this in spades. Oh, what's that? Are you an obscure referential character? Say hello to Mr. Game & Watch and R.O.B.! I mean, one of those is a game peripheral with only 1 compatible game represented through its specials! A. Game. Peripheral! Even other fighting games don't slouch upon a character from first impressions. Once again, I'll cite Phoenix Wright in Ultimate Marvel vs. Capcom 3 incorporating his character and gameplay functionally and faithfully despite being a lawyer with no combat experience. Sakurai loves toying with these types of characters. He'll make Layton work guaranteed.

Layton's main gimmick would revolve around solving puzzles, which could be incorporated by having him be an "assembly" character. When Layton is in play, the engine loads another "system" into the match that has him have to inspect the stage and other fighters in order to put together his inventions for special attacks. Slot-Machine Gun could be Side Special. St. Mystere Glider for his Up Special. Stone-Tossing Catapult for his Down Special.This could be done through a Neutral Special called Examine, that has him inquisitively put a finger on his chin as the game reveals a point of interest on the stage, near an item, on an opponent, etc., to obtain a machine part to buff a special attack or a miscellaneous junk item with unique projectile properties. The bonuses would decay overtime or have usage with cooldown period a la Robin's tomes and Levin Sword.

Besides his main mechanic, he's got a rapier for the use of a few fencing attacks, which is easy to pad out a few standards and aerials for. Oh, and ultimate finger point Forward Smash of justice is required. His trusty apprentice, Luke, is depicted by his side almost always. Maybe he could assist Layton for a special attack or even serve as a hilarious meat shield!

As for the Final Smash, a great way to portray the critical-thinking nature of his games would be having him switch the game to a, "What's wrong with this picture?" cutscene, where he has to spot something different with the other fighters to apply devastating damage. One way to do this would be to having the engine delineate a couple scenarios depending on what other fighters are in play (and randomly roll which one gets chosen if multiple ones are brought up) and sorting the puzzle around it.

Say were fighting against Link, Marth, and Little Mac. The correct answer would be to choose Little Mac because he doesn't fight with a sword. You'd "attack" him by putting a magnifying glass over him, pressing the attack button to confirm. Of course, if you choose the wrong one, they just get afflicted with some sort of status ailment. You could even throw in Hint Coins by tapping the other attack button to reveal a hint on who the Final Smash has targeted. Except when you do this, a couple random effects happen across the stage as a result and the damage on the targeted character will be lower depending on how many you used. The Final Smash would cancel after 2 are used up, revealing who the target was and dealing no damage.

WOW, I MADE A MOVESET FOR LAYTON ON THE SPOT! AND THAT'S JUST ON TEN MINUTES OF WHIM!

Also, this pic needs to be a thing! Just look at him! His posture! His smug, unfeeling face! His friggin' suave-as-**** teacup! With a mount like Charizard, Layton's pullin' punches up to Terry Cruz degrees of hyper-manliness!

PREDICTION

Concept: DLC Characters Receive Custom Moves

Chance - 67.654%
Want - 98.768%

Shoutouts to @ShinyRegice for bringing up this pivotal topic. You've really brought forth your prime voting power throughout all these days. So now we may realize it on your promised day of tomorrow!

NOMINATIONS

*Concept: Smash 5 has 10 Year Wait Cycle x2
*Concept: No DLC Characters After Fighter Ballot x2
*Concept: (Shin) Megami Tensei Character (includes Persona & Devil Survivor) x1

 

[NintenRob]

I'm sorry? 90% for a third party character (who isn't even that iconic, nor hold much of a legacy), when we likely won't get that much DLC to begin with?
I think Layton will be very dissappointed in your deductive reasoning.

 

[Delzethin]

Hm. This discussion reminds me of a puzzle.

-♪-

Professor Layton

Chance: 12%
The good professor finds himself in a tricky situation. As a third-party character, he'd already have more hurdles than any first-party candidates, despite his patron company Level-5 being on good terms with Nintendo. Furthermore, the third party characters that've made it so far have been especially iconic (or in Snake's case, come close and also have a creator who is good friends with Sakurai). Though Layton has gained a following in just two console generations, he still isn't at that highest tier, and that also hurts his chances.

That said, there's still a silver lining here. The fact that he does have a growing following is a pretty good sign, as is the fact that Level-5 is becoming increasingly prominent as a company. Although Level-5's other series are gaining ground themselves, Layton is still their most iconic character so far--Yo-Kai Watch may be wildly popular at the moment, but as a series it's yet to be seen how much staying power it'll have. And with all the inventions he's whipped up, Layton's moveset potential is higher than it initially seems...although he'd do better if there were more than just fencing techniques to fall back on for A attacks.

As far as this Smash goes, though, there are likely too many obstacles in the way. If things are trending they way they are, though, he may have a more legitimate shot when Smash 5 rolls around.

Want: Abstain
Another series I flat out haven't had the financial means to play. I swear, if I could actually get a reliable income for once...


Prediction for the Concept of DLC Characters Receiving Custom Special Moves: 38.25%
Wow. This one's basically a crapshoot.


Nominations:
Concept: DLC Music Pack x4
Concept: Alpha-Form Stages x1

 

[BluePikmin11]

I'm sorry? 90% for a third party character (who isn't even that iconic, nor hold much of a legacy), when we likely won't get that much DLC to begin with?.

He's that confident with Layton, then let the rating be.
I'm sure we'll get more DLC characters down the road, with the money-maker that is Smash, we could be getting more than we expected.

As far as this Smash goes, though, there are likely too many obstacles in the way. If things are trending they way they are, though, he may have a more legitimate shot when Smash 5 rolls around.

He's more eligible the more years pass by? Honestly, this is starting to feel like a "MUH NOT ENOUGH YEARS" bad argument, isn't the success of Professor Layton already enough proof that he's qualifiable for Smash.

 

[Ura]

Prof Layton

Chance: 5%

There's way too many 3rd party characters that have priority over Layton.

Want: Abstain

I don't know anything about the character or his series.

Prediction
DLC Characters having customs: 90%

Nominations
*Concept: Decloned Roy* X4
*Concept: Roy with his Awakening attire as his default attire* X1

 

[ES. Dinah]

Professor Layton

Chance: 10-20%

Professor Layton is popular and a pretty cool character but like Phoenix wright, I'm not a huge fan of him. I have honestly no idea about him because I haven't played any of the games. All I know is that he is popular. I guess he can use a kiddy gun or sword.....

Want: 2%

Won't say much here. I'm not a fan of him or Phoenix wright, sorry.

Nominations: KOS-MOS X5

 

[a smart guy]

This post... is not a puzzle.
Chance: 12.5% He has about a 1 in 8 chance, due to his 3rd party nature, decent fan support, and moveset issues.
Want: 20% I don't have a connection with him. I need to play one of his games.

Prediction: 56%
Chibi-Robo x5

 

[Curious Villager]

Whilst I agree that 90% may be a little on the too optimistic side. If he feels that confident over his chances, then that's how it is really. After all. People gave very low ratings for characters who did make it in and very high ratings for characters who didn't and some members even argued with some who they perceived as very unlikely but yet said member gave them a higher rating anyway and in the end, said character made it in after all.

It's a part of rate their chances I suppose.

 

[Sarki Soliloquy]

I'm sorry? 90% for a third party character (who isn't even that iconic, nor hold much of a legacy), when we likely won't get that much DLC to begin with?
I think Layton will be very dissappointed in your deductive reasoning.

I actually shot for an 80% chance on my first inspection. But after assessing his costs and the challenges imposing him, I asserted that they didn't pose too much of a risk for his case. Thus, the rating jump. Maybe I'll regret it later. Maybe I won't. It's a bet I'm willing to roll on.

And yes, I do tend to veer on the optimistic side with reality. When people say they look at things realistically, it's usually just disguised cynicism.

 

[Strider_Bond00J]

This reminds me of a puzzle, my dear Luke!
Professor Hershel Layton - Chances: 23%
Personally, I think Layton could be considered part of the Nintendo extended family, given how close the series is with Nintendo (And you could say the same thing about Phoenix) and how most of Level-5's most recognisable titles like the Professor Layton series and the new Yōkai Watch are mostly associated with Nintendo consoles. He'd need extensive votes from the Ballot for consideration, but alongside Jibanyan, he's the best choice to represent Level-5 Games.

Want: 75% I remember trying to make St. Mystere back in Brawl's Stage Maker, and seeing him in Smash would be cool, extra points for a 1V1 For Glory bout between him and Wright!

DLC Characters Getting Custom Moves: 68%
Perhaps they've held them back while they make new characters quickly, but I can see them getting new custom moves. As long as we have Mewtwo going "ZA WARUDO!!"

Nominations: Waluigi X5

 

[FancySmash]

Professor Layton

Chance: 30% - Hmm, he seems popular enough with the fans, but he isn't a ballot contender. Third party also doesn't really do much to help him I'd say. Otherwise, there's nothing left to say in this category.

Want: 5% - I don't know anything about the character. His character design wise seems generic, but I can't say much for move set potential, so I'll give him a few points there. Otherwise, there are several newcomers and veterans alike that I'd want to see before him. Otherwise, I'd be fine with his existence.

Predictions: DLC Character custom moves - 51.6% I want this to be a thing, but I'm not so sure this will happen. Similar I suppose to New Palutena's Guidance conversations.

Nominations:
Meowth X3
Chibi-Robo X2

 

[Bradli Wartooth]

Professor Layton:
Chance: 14%
Now that's higher than what I planned on putting, but seeing how often he's made his way to Nintendo consoles, I suppose I can give him a decent rating.

Want: 2%
I don't know much about him. He looks interesting from what I've seen, but there's a different puzzle game character I'm pulling for...

Nominations:
Chibi Robo x5

 

[BluePikmin11]

Speculation has certainly tried to become more realistic nowadays, but it's generally the same popular route people stick to, were going back to the same loop again that we went to that lead most of us to end up being wrong about Smash 4 newcomer selection, and it's probably going to end up with the same loop again once Sakurai reveals his surprise newcomer.

 

[A Distant Demon]

Speculation has certainly tried to become more realistic nowadays, but it's generally the same popular route people stick to, were going back to the same loop again that we went to that lead most of us to end up being wrong about Smash 4 newcomer selection, and it's probably going to end up with the same loop again once Sakurai reveals his surprise newcomer.

Yeah but ryu is already the 3rd highest in chance

The problem still lies in that dlc is a different beast than the base game. I know youve heard the argument ebough times so i wont bother insulting you by repeating it but ill just say the fanbase takes a very high look at popularity which while it might bot be the correct ideal for the base roster, could very well be the right way to look at DLC, which is made to cater to the most fans and also happens to be tied into a way for people to vote.

maybe the previously incorrect mindset could be the correct one for the new paradigm.

Besides, everyones voting on chance. They all follow a set guideline of their own rules of what makes a character likely. There is no way everyone can get it right. Hell lets just say we had rated Wii Fit Trainer. Everyone would have low ratings. It would be logical to rate her low and everyone would. They would be wrong but its still possible for their logic to be sound.



Hoo boy i am tired and i have no idea where i was going with this.

TLDR(i guess) it doesnt make sense for people to rate characters high just because there could be a surprise newcomer. By that logic anyone could be likely but that defeats the purpose of this thread meant to display how everyone feels based on their own criteria. Characters can be unlikely and still happen. Their readon for inclusion just doesnt fall into the same reasons others would.


Jeez even my TLDR is long and confusing. Ill just sleep now. . . wont even bother spellchecking

 

[PrettyIvyPearls22]

Professor Layton
Chance: 10%
I don't see him making it sadly. I always thought that Professor Layton was more of a Nintendo character owned by a second party company, not a third party charcter. I haven't found out about this fact up until last year. If it were 2012 I would've said he would have been in the game, if he were a Nintendo character. The third parties that we have in the game are big deal charcters in a Nintnedo crossover. A non-Nintendo character have to be something really special in order to be apart of Super Smash Bros. Frankly, I just don't see Layton as that as of yet. He also doesn't have much of an iconic status like the other third parties. He's not that requested of a character when discussing third parties. The puzzle genre of gaming has already been established, even before Professor Layton came along. The third parties we've seen in Smash has all had a helping hand in shaping the gaming industry that we know of it today. Level 5 seem to have a good relationship with Nintendo but it's not that big of a gaming giant company compared to others who has yet have any kind representation in a Smash game as of yet. I just don't think it's his time.

Want: 20%
He's not in my top list of charcters though I've played some of his games before. I've yet to see a creative moveset for Layton. OK he fences what else can he do? He just seem like a charcter that would come off as generic. I'm not the only one who thinks this, several people on other sites have said this on this character including Smashboards. He just has a lot in his way, isn't Level 5 retiring him soon and his series suppose to be following a new person now. He's not that requested of a third party charcter there's just a lot of competion before him in the third party department. I mean again he's non-Nintendo charcter and were suppose to be excited for Mario, Sonic, MegaMan, PacMan, and......Professor Layton? Yeah, he would just raise eyebrows for some people. He'd just seem so random and maybe forced. I like the third party roster the way it is. If we're to get more third party characters I'd say we'd get Snake, Ryu, and Rayman. After that it should be it, no one else.

DLC Charcter Custom Movesets Predictions 25%: Yeah why is it that we don't have this for Mewtwo huh Sakuarai? You give us are fan favorite charcter back but you give him no custom movesets. Like what the hell? I hope we get this fixed in a new character balance patch soon.

Nominations:
x3 DLC Stages ( I hope we rate something on this soon I hope DLC isn't just dedicated to charcters. I would like to see some more stages).

 

[BluePikmin11]

Maybe, but really, Sakurai is a man full of surprises, and he has already proven that with the unexpected Ryu already. Honestly that of itself should be enough that he's probably going to satisfy people with some newcomers people didn't expect, but love when they see the gameplay.

I'm not telling you guys rate unlikely characters high at all, but rather just give them a fair chance with good detailed reasons and not a 0.01% chance. It's basically "not iconic not popular, very little chance of happening long rant on iconicness incoming. Oh hey look a highly voted newcomer, I give high percent!" without any explanation on why it could happen. Remember what I posted back in the day:

You all should get in detail more that's not "no moveset potential, popular, don't know the character 5%"
Also research, I've noticed much of the people who rated here don't know the character at all.

 

[MatvaradoxD]

Professor Layton
Chance: 15%
I'm reading the posts above and I'm learning he's 3rd party? I thought he was at least 2nd party. If not his chance would have been at least 25% for me. His series of games have been a great success and he's been loyal to the Nintendo consoles. He even made a crossover with Capcom's Phoenix Wright so I feel as if the character would receive a warm welcoming anywhere.

Want: 60%
There's already enough of 3rd party characters but there's something about Layton that I wouldn't mind if he were to join. Sure there are way more other characters that deserve a spot before him but to me I feel like he's somewhat earned it since he's been around for some time now. He's like the new Shantae in terms of like being there supporting the new portable consoles as of late.

Predictions:
DLC Custom Moves - Chance: 50%

Nominations:
Mach Rider x5

 

[PrettyIvyPearls22]

Maybe, but really, Sakurai is a man full of surprises, and he has already proven that with the unexpected Ryu already. Honestly that of itself should be enough that he's probably going to satisfy people with some newcomers people didn't expect, but love when they see the gameplay.

I'm not telling you guys rate unlikely characters high at all, but rather just give them a fair chance with good detailed reasons and not a 0.01% chance. It's basically "not iconic not popular, very little chance of happening long rant on iconicness incoming. Oh hey look a highly voted newcomer, I give high percent!" without any explanation on why it could happen. Remember what I posted back in the day:

You all should get in detail more that's not "no moveset potential, popular, don't know the character 5%"
Also research, I've noticed much of the people who rated here don't know the character at all.

We know rules can be changed or broken, I think once we see it happen well change our tune. I think all of us know by now that Sakuari is is indeed an unpredictable man. But hes always been consistent saying that third parties are a big deal. They are all very big gaming characters, the fact that that we're getting Ryu further proves this. I don't ever see the big third party charcter gimmick ever getting broken. The thing is this is a third party character were rating here. Popularity isn't enough to get a charcter in. It can only go so far, unless there is a large "fan outcry" for a certain charcter. Every third party isn't really all that likely, until proven otherwise. Like how a "Third party company can't get more than one charcter " rule has been broken with the possibility of Ryu coming into the picture. We're just going by what we've been observing in the past until otherwise. Besides these companies are the ones going to get more out of this than Nintendo would, which is why they want big guest stars to come crash the party.

 

[BluePikmin11]

The puzzle genre of gaming has already been established, even before Professor Layton came along.

Isn't that a good thing though, the fact that we lack those kinds of characters that makes him more stand-out really, and he does have a large audience with the female demographic here (Something that rarely happens with Nintendo IPs) that makes him a great selling point for DLC.

Level 5 seem to have a good relationship with Nintendo but it's not that big of a gaming giant company compared to others who has yet have any kind representation in a Smash game as of yet.

It is starting to become one with Level-5's biggest franchise money maker in Japan right now though, Yo-kai Watch. They have been very close to Nintendo for a number of years now, with Nintendo publishing their games outside of Japan, with that kind of relationship, Nintendo is likely going to recommend a Level-5 character to Sakurai, because it can sell by large margin with the newer audiences recognizing these characters too.

OK he fences what else can he do? He just seem like a charcter that would come off as generic. I'm not the only one who thinks this, several people on other sites have said this on this character including Smashboards.

I highly recommend reading back to @ Curious Villager @captain Hotcake and mines to explain the moveset potential he has, I have a feeling you have not read them at all and just skimming it quickly.

I mean again he's non-Nintendo charcter and were suppose to be excited for Mario, Sonic, MegaMan, PacMan, and......Professor Layton? Yeah, he would just raise eyebrows for some people. He'd just seem so random and maybe forced.

Again in the previous post.

It is starting to become one with Level-5's biggest franchise money maker in Japan right now though, Yo-kai Watch. They have been very close to Nintendo for a number of years now, with Nintendo publishing their games outside of Japan, with that kind of relationship, Nintendo is likely going to recommend a Level-5 character to Sakurai, because it can sell by large margin with the newer audiences recognizing these characters too.

We know rules can be changed or broken, I think once we see it happen well change our tune. The thing is this is a third party character were rating here. Popularity isn't enough to get a charcter in. It can only go so far. Every third party isn't really all that likely, until proven otherwise. Like how a "Third party company can't get more than one charcter " rule has been broken with the possibility of Ryu coming into the picture. We're just going by what we've been observing in the past until otherwise. Besides these companies are the ones going to get more out of this than Nintendo would.

Again I'm not telling to put them at a high chance rating, just give them a fair rating and not give 0.01% because non-iconic. Their chance are not on the equality of Banjo-Kazooie and Ridley right now.