Rate their Chances: the DLC Edition. Day: 192: The final day

[sogeki]

We should do Wonder Red tomorrow.

 

[edsett]

Isaac
Chance: 60%
I somewhat agree with Fuzzy Pickles as that the ballot doesn't mean the most popular characters automatically get in the game. I think that Nintendo already has a shortlist of characters they are considering and comparing the results of the ballot to. That being said, I think Isaac has a good chance. Popularity is still an important factor (but not the only factor) and people have been asking for Isaac for a long time. He also has a wealth of moveset potential that would differentiate him from other anime swordsmen.
No longer being an AT is good news but the stripped Golden Sun content from Smash 4 is strange. What's up with that?
Not to mention that his series is on hiatus, and characters have gotten into Smash for advertisement of a recent game.

Want: 30%
I've never played Golden Sun and I don't care to. But I do care that he's from an unrepresented Nintendo franchise. Every unrep Nintendo franchise should get a rep before characters like Shovel Knight are even mentioned.

Bandana Dee Prediction: 40%

Nominations: Captain Toad x4 + Inkling x1

 

[smileMasky]

Isaac
Chance 70%
well this is the only real score I can make out of him I really don't know his chances on one hand he has a great fan base for him as for me I just don't know that much about him though they did give him some music love in the wii u so ya... sorry for being bait ignorant to this character
Want 40%:
Im Ok with him in I just prefer other characters thats all

Edit:
Nomination Quote x5

 

[Fire_Voyager]

Isaac
Chance - 75%
0 representation in any form in the games (except 1 song) = 100% DLC... I hope...

Want - 100%
for an ex-Assist T. We got Little Mac ... and for Sword/Magic we got Robin... but we need traditional RPG/ portable GBA game representation, and no one is better than our blond swordman (not the most original hair color and weapon combination)

Bandana Dee
Prediction - 15%
4 Kirby characters? em... maybe, but it isn't something we need, but better than another ///Clone

Nominations
BK 1x
Isaac 1x
Rayman 2x
Bub/Bob 1x

 

[smashingDoug]

Chance 65%

Want 25%
never played golden sun so I really don't know much about him but he seems cool and he isn't an assist trophy anymore.

Nominations
Vaati 1x
Agumon x1
Duke Nukem x1
joey's rattata x1

 

[Fire_Voyager]

Ups... repost =(

 

[Aetheri]

Well they added Shulk even though FE already had Marth, Ike, and Link...

Link is from Fire Emblem? My childhood is a lie!!

 

[Kenith]

Isaac

Chance: 85%.
Want: 50%.
Things are looking up for Isaac. His Assist Trophy has been suspiciously cut with no hint of his existence at all, which would suggest he's being saved for potential DLC...and now he seems to be ranking really high in the ballot and the resulting polls. On top of that, I don't think they'd save him for the next Smash if he doesn't have an upcoming game. As for the character himself, I'm completely neutral, I have not played Golden Sun nor do I intend to, but he seems like he has potential.

-----------------
Bandana Dee Prediction: 15%.
-----------------
Nominations: Wolf Link & Midna x5.

 

[BluePikmin11]

I'm rather tired today, so I'm just going to be completely straightforward with Isaac today.

Isaac Chance:
25%
Isaac's chances have been raised quite a bit since the ballot was first announced. He's pretty much set in terms of moveset potential, so I don't have to explain further. And I have to admit, the lack of and other GS trophy does seem like Sakurai wanted save him for future DLC, but that's just a small possibility.

However, there are still things against him, his franchise's future is looking bleak thanks to Dark Dawn and Camelot's comments regarding a new Golden Sun. Sakurai has stated before that he will not pick characters who have little to no future, and with the points I mentioned, it could be the killer axe for Isaac in the end to put him in a much lower priority. He's pretty much in the same boat of C-List Nintendo series like Custom Robo, Chibi Robo, and Advance Wars now until a new Golden Sun game is announced.

Overall, his chances may raised a good amount with the ballot, but it's not enough to rid of his main issue of his franchise having little to no future.

Isaac Want:
30%
I'm okay with Isaac's inclusion for the most part and there is a good amount of interesting moveset potential to make for a cool character, but there are other new Nintendo series I rather see get playable representation. And he's already playable in the quality fan game of SSF2, so my want for him to get in SSB4 is even less than before.

Bandanna Dee Prediction:
55.5% This will be an interesting one for sure, I've pretty much ready to address the issues for Dee tomorrow.

x5 Jibanyan

 

[JaidynReiman]

Link is from Fire Emblem? My childhood is a lie!!

N3ON's only joking because someone else said Isaac is from Fire Emblem. :D

 

[Smasher 101]

Isaac's chances: 40%

He's one of the most popular DLC choices and his exclusion from the game is somewhat suspicious, but his franchises' possibly dim future might hurt him.

Want: 100%

I enjoy seeing new franchises represented, and of those currently lacking a playable character, I think Golden Sun is the best choice to get one. Seems like someone I'd like playing as, too.

Bandana Dee prediction: 18.76%

Generally seen as the most likely Kirby character...but a Kirby character at all isn't the most likely thing itself.

Nominations: Dixie Kong x5

 

[BKupa666]

Isaac:

Chance - 65%
Moreso than K. Rool, I think Isaac is the ballot newcomer who's more of a "coin toss." With the former, he's at the point where he's in if the developers want him, whereas with Isaac, there are still small hurdles for him to clear...namely getting overseas support and whether Sakurai wants to add another sword-wielder (if he is indeed hesitant about them and yet still adding Roy). Otherwise, he has a ton of potential with his various spells and earth magic, and is the only other stand-out first party request.

He could not be in, but I'm leaning toward yes. People like to say "Oh, him being taken out as an AT means nothing, the Helerin was taken out too!" but when Golden Sun still has a few residual elements in-game, such as music tracks, it makes me suspect something's up.

Want - 55%
Never played his games, I want him mainly for his supporters' sake, since they seem to be pretty cool.

Bandana Dee Prediction - 23.5%

Nominate Shovel Knight x5

 

[PK_Wonder]

@ShinyRegice
I had... I really had literally no idea that anyone felt so passionately about custom moves. You might despise me for saying this, but I was actually relieved that Mewtwo didn't have customs, because I felt it meant more development time dedicated to future newcomers and other DLC. I didn't feel like anything was missing or any disrespect was given to his character. Then again, I am a 100% vanilla moveset kinda guy (other than Mii Fighters... I collect all of the customs because I'm a completionist, but they just aren't my thing). I hope you eventually get your customs though, as long as they don't take away from other DLC.

 

[ferioku]

Isaac's Chances:50%

I think Isaac's chances have been increased quite a lot ever since the ballot was announced. I also do think Golden Sun has a future, but it's all up to Camelot to be honest... He has an extremely wide move pool compared to a majority of the higher end votes. There have been characters who have revived because of smash and possibly lack a future, not saying they do but it's possible that they won't be receiving any more games (Duck Hunt, Lucas etc). The fact that Isaac is receiving a lot of votes and is able to match up with King K. Rool really gives me hope, and I think he has at least a decent chance of making it into the roster.

Want: 100%

I'm a strong RPG fan and my current top 3 are: Final Fantasy, Golden Sun and Xenoblade Chronicles (looking forward to X)!
Golden Sun was definitely a great experience and I had a lot of fun playing it when I was little. It had so much depth with the puzzles and djinns and it actually requires you to use your head most of the time. The thing that makes Isaac stand out to me the most is his move set potential, he has a lot of them! Although his signature ability is his earth based psynergy, hes capable of doing a lot more. He has the move, grab, force, carry, psynergy that allows his astral hands to help him get through obstacles. The djinns are capable of doing a lot of attacks and buffs and de-buffs. He even has the Summons, and a lot of them too and lets not forget that he isn't only locked to earth synergy too!

I really think he deserves a spot in the roster, and maybe just maybe, Camelot will open their eyes and make a Golden Sun 4.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Custom moves would've made balance 10x harder especially if there are doing more than 12 DLC characters.

 

[Bill Nye]

Isaac
Chance: 45%
Want: 50%

Nominations:Agnes Oblige x 3
Ridley x 2

 

[BandanaWaddleDee]

Chances: I said it before, but again I'll say 85%

Want: 90% I just got into Golden Sun last week, and I'd love Isaac.

Bandana Dee Chances: 80% If a new Kirby rep is added, it has to be Bandana Dee.

Nominations: Endou Mamoru x3
Jibanyan x2

 

[PK_Wonder]

Custom moves would've made balance 10x harder especially if there are doing more than 12 DLC characters.

Without custom moves, I feel like Mewtwo, Lucas, and at least two more could have been in the base game. I know they are mostly tweaked moves, and highly unbalanced compared to vanilla, effectively probably taking less work than even having a clone character for each member of the cast. But when you have to make three sets for every character, it isn't going to be done by one person in one week. It's a lot of work, and it wasn't a gimmick I ever heard anyone cry out for. It's a neat idea, for sure, I just don't see it being missed if we never knew about it and had five more stages or fifty more trophies or X amount more content instead.

but I don't want to derail the thread or start a debate on the ethics of the existence of custom moves. It's definitely a discussion worth having though when we get to the rate the concept of whether or not DLC characters will get custom moves.

 

[smileMasky]

Custom moves would've made balance 10x harder especially if there are doing more than 12 DLC characters.

If they do 12 DLC characters I fear for mr. Sakurai I think IMHO 4 More characters are ok but man 12...

 

[ferioku]

Oh and Wolf x5

 

[ZecaOMestre]

Isaac

Chance: 45%
Isaac is a real possibility. He's popular woth Nintendo fans and the lack of him as an Assist Trophy really does help him. I just don't know if Nintendo would choose him to be DLC seeing as how he is not very well known between the general public and his series has apparently no plans to keep going

Want: 40%
He is very similar to Shulk and Robin, and I never really played his games, so I have no attachment to him

Nominations:
Sceptile x2
Ryu (Street Fighter) x3

Bandanna Dee Prediction:
42%

 

[Sid-cada]

Issac

Chance - 50% - A real toss up either way. I'm mostly focusing on the fact that it got more new content, yet the Assist Trophy removed. Because of that, I can't say either way what to think. I see this as a true toss up; I can't say with any amount of certainty one way or the other.

Want - 75% - Hey, I think playing with the earth would be cool.


Nominations
Roy X5 (considering recent developments, this should be interesting)

Prediction for Dee - 26.75% - Probably pessimism.

 

[Argos]

Isaac

Chance: 35%
If Isaac performs as well in the poll as he does on enthusiast forums he'll be a major threat for an addition. The biggest problem is we have no idea what the status of Golden Sun as a series is right now, and everything we've seen before has indicated that there's an unfortunate gap for newcomers between being considered a 'retro' rep (which seems to basically end at the NES) and characters with continuing relevance.

Want: 55%
I wasn't a big fan of Golden Sun when it came out, actually, though I'm not sure whether that was more due to my unfamiliarity with non-Pokemon RPGs at the time than the actual quality of the game. I'm a pretty big fan of Smash being treated as a museum celebrating Nintendo history rather than an advertisement for the newest games though, and Golden Sun is definitely one of the more prominent franchises that hasn't been added. The roster will just seem more complete with him in it.

Stanley the Bugman X5

 

[4theRECORD]

Writing this from my iPhone, so I'm doing this short.
Issac (Golden Sun)
Chance:65%
1)Hails from a rather popular franchise.
2)Had a game post brawl.
3)His AT mysteriously vanished.
4)The character himself is still fairly popular.
5)Would be easy to get into Smash.
6)Possibly a fourth game in the works?

Want:70%
The more new franchises, the better.

Bandana Dee prediction:
35%

nominate Wolf x5

 

[Pureownege75]

Isaac

Chance: 60%
Definitely one of the characters with the best chances of making it into the game. People really like seeing previously unrepresented series get into smash, and Isaac from Golden Sun fits the bill. I don't know much about him, but from what I hear, he's got a ton of moveset potential and could be very unique. The fact that he was REMOVED as an assist trophy between Brawl and Sm4sh is very peculiar, and makes me think he was at one point considered or even planned, but regardless it plays into his favor big-time now.. The only thing I see against him is from my understanding he doesn't have a ton of support in Japan, which is a huge deal. That said, neither did Little Mac and we got him. I could see it go both ways in all honesty, but I'm leaning towards a yes

Want: 10%
I have zero connection to the series, but I know his fans have wanted him for a while. That said, I struggle to give any character other than K. Rool I high want rating because I know this is a competition and there are limited spaces here. It'd be great for his fans, and I'd love to get a new series represented, but realistically I can't give him that much support

Predictions: Bandana Dee 35%

Nominations:
Rhythm Heaven Character x3
Stage Packs (64, Melee, Brawl) x2

 

[Skyblade12]

Isaac

Chance: 60%
Definitely one of the characters with the best chances of making it into the game. People really like seeing previously unrepresented series get into smash, and Isaac from Golden Sun fits the bill. I don't know much about him, but from what I hear, he's got a ton of moveset potential and could be very unique. The fact that he was REMOVED as an assist trophy between Brawl and Sm4sh is very peculiar, and makes me think he was at one point considered or even planned, but regardless it plays into his favor big-time now.. The only thing I see against him is from my understanding he doesn't have a ton of support in Japan, which is a huge deal. That said, neither did Little Mac and we got him. I could see it go both ways in all honesty, but I'm leaning towards a yes

He was in the top fifteen on a Japanese poll, IIRC. Maybe top ten, I don't remember too well, but definitely top fifteen.

 

[Pureownege75]

He was in the top fifteen on a Japanese poll, IIRC. Maybe top ten, I don't remember too well, but definitely top fifteen.

Top 15 is decent, but it's far from the support other characters get globally

 

[N3ON]

He was in the top fifteen on a Japanese poll, IIRC. Maybe top ten, I don't remember too well, but definitely top fifteen.

He was tied for eighth for newcomers. Fourteenth overall. Thirteenth excluding Lucas.

 

[Skyblade12]

He was tied for eighth for newcomers. Fourteenth overall.

Do you still have the results? Because IIRC, several of those newcomers were also ones who were far less likely.

 

[Substitution]

Isaac:
Chance: 20%(?)
C'mon guys. Really? He's in indie character with little to no relation to Nintendo (sure, it's getting a release later on, but still). And honestly, do you really want a character from a dark and disturbing game where you fight your religiously insane mom? Of course not. That's stupid.

...Unless you're referring to Isaac from Golden Sun. In that case, ignore the previous one and let's just use "80%".

Want: 80%
I guess he'd be a decent character (with a new gimmick and all). And I'm all for a character to represent a new element rather than the overused fire.

Nomination:
Excitebiker x5

 

[cybersai]

Also Sakurai seems to love anime JRPG characters. You would think Isaac would be a shoe-in with Sakurai's love for RPG's, Fire Emblem bias, anime bias, and humanoid character bias.

I wonder if Sakurai ever played the Golden Sun games.

 

[N3ON]

Do you still have the results? Because IIRC, several of those newcomers were also ones who were far less likely.

Spoiler

リュカ Lucas

ウルフ Wolf

スネーク Snake

アイスクライマー Ice Climber

ロイ Roy

ピチュー Pichu

キングクルール King K. Rool

クリスタル Krystal

リドリーRidley
ディクシー Dixie

ペーパーマリオ Paper Mario
カスタムロボ Custom Robo

デイジー姫 Daisy

ワドルディ Waddle Dee
ロビン Isaac
ゴエモン Goemon

天国 R. Heaven
ジバニャン Jibanyan
ジーノ Geno
いか娘 Inkling
アルル・ナジャ Arle Nadja

ロクマンゼロ Megaman Zero
リュウ Ryu
ボンバーマン Bomberman
フシギソウ Ivysaur
ゼニガメ Squirtle
クロノア Klonoa
クラッシュ・バンディクー Crash Bandicoot

キノピオ Toad
ワルキューレ Valkyrie
レオン Leon
ブラックシャドー Black Shadow
ビューティフルジョーViewtiful Joe
バンジョー&カズーイ Banjo and Kazooie
テイルズ Tales Character
ちびロボ Chibi Robo
ゾロアーク Zoroark
スカポン Sukapon
ジュカイン Sceptile
アシュリー Ashley

ワルイージ　Waluigi
レイマン Rayman
ミカヤ Mikaya (FE)
マロ　Maro (Super Mario RPG)
マグナ Magmun (Kid Icarus)
ベヨネッタ (Bayonetta)
ヒルダ姫 Princess Zelda
シャドウ・ザ・ヘッジホッグ Shadow the Hedgehog
ザンギエフ　Zangief (Street Fighter)
サーリャ　Tharja（FE)
キャサリン Birdo
カメックス Blastoise
エンデ Pandora’s Tower character
ウェアホッグ Werehog (Sonic)
アイアイ AiAi (Super Monkey Ball)
鷹丸 Takamaru
シレン Shiren

Characters grouped together are tied

Isaac:
Chance: 20%(?)
C'mon guys. Really? He's in indie character with little to no relation to Nintendo (sure, it's getting a release later on, but still). And honestly, do you really want a character from a dark and disturbing game where you fight your religiously insane mom? Of course not. That's stupid.

...Unless you're referring to Isaac from Golden Sun. In that case, ignore the previous one and let's just use "80%".

Want: 80%
I guess he'd be a decent character (with a new gimmick and all). And I'm all for a character to represent a new element rather than the overused fire.

Nomination:
Excitebiker x5

No one even talks about that Isaac.

 

[Skyblade12]

Spoiler

リュカ Lucas

ウルフ Wolf

スネーク Snake

アイスクライマー Ice Climber

ロイ Roy

ピチュー Pichu

キングクルール King K. Rool

クリスタル Krystal

リドリーRidley
ディクシー Dixie

ペーパーマリオ Paper Mario
カスタムロボ Custom Robo

デイジー姫 Daisy

ワドルディ Waddle Dee
ロビン Isaac
ゴエモン Goemon

天国 R. Heaven
ジバニャン Jibanyan
ジーノ Geno
いか娘 Inkling
アルル・ナジャ Arle Nadja

ロクマンゼロ Megaman Zero
リュウ Ryu
ボンバーマン Bomberman
フシギソウ Ivysaur
ゼニガメ Squirtle
クロノア Klonoa
クラッシュ・バンディクー Crash Bandicoot

キノピオ Toad
ワルキューレ Valkyrie
レオン Leon
ブラックシャドー Black Shadow
ビューティフルジョーViewtiful Joe
バンジョー&カズーイ Banjo and Kazooie
テイルズ Tales Character
ちびロボ Chibi Robo
ゾロアーク Zoroark
スカポン Sukapon
ジュカイン Sceptile
アシュリー Ashley

ワルイージ　Waluigi
レイマン Rayman
ミカヤ Mikaya (FE)
マロ　Maro (Super Mario RPG)
マグナ Magmun (Kid Icarus)
ベヨネッタ (Bayonetta)
ヒルダ姫 Princess Zelda
シャドウ・ザ・ヘッジホッグ Shadow the Hedgehog
ザンギエフ　Zangief (Street Fighter)
サーリャ　Tharja（FE)
キャサリン Birdo
カメックス Blastoise
エンデ Pandora’s Tower character
ウェアホッグ Werehog (Sonic)
アイアイ AiAi (Super Monkey Ball)
鷹丸 Takamaru
シレン Shiren

Characters grouped together are tied

No one even talks about that Isaac.

That was taken before the poll as well, IIRC.

Dixie has plummeted as the DK fans have pooled towards K. Rool.
Ridley is already appearing in the game.
Custom Robo has no demand in the West.

 

[colder_than_ice]

Expect a late update today, probably around 2 hours late, I have plans.

Sorry.

 

[IceBreakerXY]

Isaac Changes:50%
As much as i want to see isaac in the game i fear that popularity my not be enough for him.True he has a over 100 possibites for a moveset but at the end of the day i can only see it happening if sakurai is a fan of golden sun.I know that's crazy but if not i can't see it happening.Isaac isn't from a big series like mario or zelda so his changes our already low but coming from a pretty died franchise and coming from a second party developer i just don't like his changes

Isaac want:100%

I love golden sun and i know he would be an amazing character to the roster.His moveset could be so many things and the remixes.Oh god the remixes.I really want isaac in the game

Nominations
Shantae x1
bandanna dee x1
Sceptile x 1
captain toad x 1
Roy x1

 

[N3ON]

That was taken before the poll as well, IIRC.

Dixie has plummeted as the DK fans have pooled towards K. Rool.
Ridley is already appearing in the game.
Custom Robo has no demand in the West.

Yeah those results wouldn't be overly relevant at this point. I hope we get new Japanese results sooner than later.

 

[Sabrewulf238]

Also Sakurai seems to love anime JRPG characters. You would think Isaac would be a shoe-in with Sakurai's love for RPG's, Fire Emblem bias, anime bias, and humanoid character bias.

I wonder if Sakurai ever played the Golden Sun games.

Sakurai: "I love Fire Emblem, Kid Icarus, Xenoblade and all things anime! Hmm but I don't want to appear too bias towards one genre or art style. I know! I'll treat Golden Sun like the abandoned middle child so people won't suspect my intense love for all things anime and JRPG. It's genius!"

 

[N3ON]

Isaac

People have already said pretty much everything I'd have to say, and I don't have a lot of time atm, so I'll try to keep it short

Chances: 65%
++Highly popular
+Extreme potential
+Fits all of Sakurai's criteria
+Suspiciously absent from game, yet GS still has a presence content-wise
+Post-Brawl title
+Relatively successful on the VC
+Hails from new series which - of the remaining unrepresented ones - has higher levels of success
+Steep drop-off in popularity after K. Rool and Isaac (regarding Nintendo newcomers)

~Neither excessive nor minimal Japanese support
~Has a sword (which isn't a negative considering if Sakurai had something against sword-wielders... we wouldn't keep getting sword-wielders - also Isaac has much more to him than simply his sword)
~For those who think he would have to play like Robin - he wouldn't. Robin doesn't even touch Isaac's primary element: Earth. No one on the roster currently does to any major degree.

-Series in a state of uncertainty (but it's not dead, not yet - it got a game at the tail end of last gen)
-Currently fairly niche
-No recent starring roles

Want: 100%
Since before Brawl *******~

 

[Delzethin]

Sakurai has stated before that he will not pick characters who have little to no future, and with the points I mentioned, it could be the killer axe for Isaac in the end to put him in a much lower priority. He's pretty much in the same boat of C-List Nintendo series like Custom Robo, Chibi Robo, and Advance Wars now until a new Golden Sun game is announced.

That's pretty much out the window now that Lucas is back, a character whose series has officially ended.

 

[Pacack]

That's pretty much out the window now that Lucas is back, a character whose series has officially ended.

Different scenario. He was added to SSB before 4 and is just returning.