Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Smasher 101]

Travis Touchdown

Chance: 10%

His creator is friends with Sakurai and the series has ties to Nintendo, so he has that going for him. Not a whole lot else though. He's not a very big name compared to other third parties and thus I doubt the demand is super high, and I think the Switch game's timing would be more likely to help him for DLC than it would for the main game (and again, I don't factor in DLC in my chance scores). And while we've had content from M rated games before the very adult nature of him and his series could still hurt him. The first sentence makes me not want to count him out - particularly the first point - but I wouldn't bet on it.

Want: 0%

I don't have any connection to No More Heroes and I'm not that interested in it. He doesn't appeal to me much as a fighter either. He also doesn't have the history to convince me otherwise especially when there's so many others I'd rather have. And to top it off I flat out think he'd fit in very poorly. Sorry, but I'm going to have to pass.

Urban Champion prediction: 4.59%

Nominations: Corrin x5

 

[Deleted member]

Travis Touchdown
Chance-20%
Not to high, but suda might be really pushing for travis. Plus while he is a japanese indie, there are still other indies that may be ahead of him.
Want-5%
The only reason this isnt a 0 is because i want to see a game with bayonetta and travis together.
Urban champion prediction 2.8y%
Noms-
Meowth x 2
Tora and poppi x 5

 

[DaUsername]

Double N/A-ing from Travis.

Urban Champ prediction: 5%
Noms: Steve x5

 

[CometX-ing]

Travis Touchdown
Chances: 10%
Sakurai and Suda51 are buddies, but even that hasn't gotten him in Smash. It's not impossible, but pretty unlikely.

Want: 0%
I never understood the hype for Travis. Not even in a "I don't like this character" way, like genuine confusion kind of way. Travis is just one of those characters that felt like such a random request to me. That said I don't want him.

Nominations:
Primarina x5

 

[andimidna]

Travis: abstain

Urban Champ prediction: 2.7%

x3 Viridi
x2 FE Summoner

 

[Cycrum]

Travis Touchdown

Chance and Want: Abstain

I know next to nothing about this guy. I do know that his creator has said before that he wants him in Smash, including recently.

Nominations:
Steve (Minecraft) x5

Prediction:
Urban Champion: 3.89%

 

[A Distant Demon]

Travis Sports term

I dont knwo why. . .but something tells me Travis has an extremely small chance. It's been nagging at me for months now and I dont know why.

He has no real reason to be in smash. . .but a very small part of me thinks it has a chance for the strangest reason. ..


Want: 0%
No attachment to the character. Never played a game. Weapon looks kind of cool I guess?

Noms
Increased gen 1 content after pokemon let's go x5 (someone else can change the name, but you know what I mean)

 

[ZealousGamer]

Travis Touchdown:

Chance 35%: Low but still possible.

Want 5%: Don't really care about this character.

Nominations:
Masked Link 3x
Pokemon Trainer (Gen 2) 2x

 

[ProfPeanut]

Travis Touchdown

Chance: 5%
Feels like one of the many "everyone and their mother" candidates we get, if not one of the prime examples. Smash has yet to invite someone simply for staying loyal to Nintendo systems, Bayonetta aside for winning a request ballot. NMH is too young to be historically significant, and too adult to fit well in Smash.

Want: Abstain
Never played the games, and the reports I'm getting here are kind of conflicting. The games themselves are raunchy and violent, but the character himself is a loser most of the time? That sounds like the equivalent of putting Deadpool in the MCU. I have no connection to the guy himself, but I'd have to look up more to figure how much I'd want him here.


Prediction
Urban Champion: 12.5%

Nominations
Veteran: Bayonetta x5

 

[Blackwolf666]

Travis Touchdown

Chance: 30%

Want: 30%

I won't lie, I want him in the game, but he is a low level want that I wouldn't be too broken up about if he wasn't included because there are over a dozen characters I want more than him.

nominations: Veteran: Corrin

 

[Koopaul]

Travis Touchdown
Chance: 10%
I could see him getting in if Suda51 really begged Sakurai for it. But otherwise probably not.
Want: 0%
There's really almost No More 3rd Party characters I want in the game. Almost.

Predictions for Urban Champion
Chance: 20%
Want: 30%

Nominations
Barbara the Bat ×3
Slime ×2

 

[zipzapsparkle]

Travis
Chance Abstain
Want 0%

I remember he had a game in the Wii that switched over to the ps3 or something like that. Now he’s returned, but for some reason I’ve never liked his design. He’s a little too edgy for my liking.

x5 Arcade Bunny

 

[Organization XIII]

Chance 10%
Suda is friends with Sakurai and that worked for Snake but Travis is niche and unfortunately for him, he's not a ballot winner overcoming that pesky icon status necessary for inclusion.

Want: 80%
Travis is hilarious and I think we can all agree he's the horrible loser you can't help but love. *reads the comments* Oh, I guess we can't agree....

noms: Ray x5

 

[MasterWarlord]

Travis Touchdown Chance - 8.5%: Travis' game is quirky and enough of a cult title it practically feels like an indie game, so it's not a likely choice for Smash if you ask me. However, the supposed relationship with Sakurai and the creator actively wanting him in the game means there is a chance higher than zero of this happening.

Travis Touchdown Want - Abstain: The series seems like it's a going a bit far with the whole hipster thing from my outsider perspective, but it does seem like it has some legitimately entertaining things in it. Still feels like something I'd have to see in detail to judge.

Nominate Cranky Kong x4
Nominate Fawful x1

 

[AlphaSSB]

Travis Touchdown

Chance: 1% - New game helps his odds, as well as his performance in the ballot, but I don't think either one of those things grant him any substantial shot at getting in.

Want: 0% - Not a fan of adding more 3rd Parties to the roster. Nor do I have any attachment to the character or series.

Nominations: Slippy Toad x5

 

[YoshiandToad]

Travis Touchdown

Chance: 3%
ENTER THE GARDEN OF MADNESS!
Travis is definitely a (im)mature game character. His game is filled with innuendo, swearing, bloody insane gory carnage, toilet humour and at one point, incest. A notable mechanic is charging his beam katana which intentionally looks like he's jacking it.

Nintendo may have let Bayo in, but for some reason I don't see Travis getting in just yet.

Want: 85%
Which is a shame, because No More Heroes is easily in my top ten game series of all time. He's a fun character who gets a surprising amount of character development through the first game as you battle your way through a gallery of wacky assassins.

I'm not quite ready to see a neutered Travis, which is the only way he'd enter the game, but No More Heroes is as big a console seller to me as Smash itself. Hell, it's the one of the few games on the Wii I can say made the console feel genuine fun to me(although I did skip over the Galaxy games stupidly).

Predictions for Urban Champ: 2%

Nomination: Meowth X 5

 

[Kotor]

Travis Touchdown

Chance: Abstain
Want: Abstain

For Travis, I'll have to go double abstain. I never touched his games, and his Travis Strikes Again is apparently a spinoff. Not saying it would be a point against Travis. It's just something I noticed from looking for more info on that game. This whole Suda51 wants Travis in Smash, and he's friends with Sakurai reminds me of Kojima wanting Snake in Smash.

Nominations
Rowlet x5

 

[Arcanir]

Double abstain from Travis, I don't know the character enough to give a fair rating for either points.

Nominations: Monster Hunter Character x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Sorry for the late day ending, some personal stuff came up.

Travis Touchdown

35% Chance

Tbh his biggest boon is that his creator does want him in smash and that he is friends with Sakurai. While 2008 and to a lesser extent 2015 Sakurai is a different person than current Sakurai, having the developer as your buddy helps a good bit. Travis Strikes Again almost seems built to make a case for Travis for Smash Switch. Things seem to line up ok for him, and if he does not make base I am confident he will make it in the game as DLC potentially.

100% Want

No More Heroes is sweet. I know some people might be a bit sensitive to try it out due to how the game is a tad crude and very bloody, but behind that wall is one of the smartest games I have played. The humor is great, the combat is fun, its an awesome game. I played Travis Strikes Again at PAX EAST 2018 and it was fun as well. I hope Travis making it into Smash would make him in a spot similar to Bayonetta. Adopted by Nintendo if you will.

Nominating Excitebiker x 5.

Also I will state sorry for the lateness of a noms update. I have been spoiled by getting help for it. Will compile a noms update today. Also today will be the last day to get stuff on the pre E3 schedule.

DAY OVER CALCS INCOMING

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Travis Touchdown
16.54% Chance
29.48% Want

Y'all need to play NMH. In other words, decent chance for a third party, but damn people are apprehensive to him.

@TheFritzle gets5x noms for Travis.

Today we got the Urban Champion from Urban Champion. Rate him in chance and want. Also predict the scores for Mipha tomorrow.

 

[Deleted member]

Urban Champion

Chance: 5%
Want: 0%

Noms:
Concept: Female announcer x5

Mipha prediction: 11.01%

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Urban Champion

Chance: 1%

Apparently Sakurai considered him for Melee when choosing a retro character and didn't put him in because he couldn't think of a moveset. So that's bad. Also I doubt people would care for his inclusion. From what I've heard, his game doesn't seem to really be regarded as a classic unlike the other first party NES games released around that time.

Want: 2%

Never played Urban Champion and with the mixed to negative reception the game got I have no interest.

Predictions for Mipha: 8.55%

Nominations: Leon Kennedy x5

By the way TCT~Phantom , Lip isn't on the Chance and Want rankings yet, could you fix that perhaps? It's kinda bothering me.

 

[VexTheHex]

Haha, finally got around to getting back on and fixing some of my typos on Travis's day. There's probably more though, I was really rushing it when I wrote it cause needed to get out for work... and I tend to typo anyways. So ya, I expected it to be sloppy. Haha.

Urban Champion
Chance - 5%
We got Little Mac last go around, so I really don't see Sakurai being eager to pick up another fist fighter that eagerly. His game being on Virtual Console was met with mostly negative reviews and comments on how boring the game is. You punch and punch harder. I really think Sakurai would find other NES characters more alluring.
Want - 3%
I'll just give him a small buffer to keep him away from my least favorite ideas, but overall I feel he doesn't bring much to the table. Takamaru is my #1 for retro pick, and I'd be rather disappointed with this guy over him.

Nominations - I may alter it when we get the update.
5x Gengar

 

[FamicomDisk]

Urban Champion

Chance: 5%
Urban Champion was considered for Melee, and was ultimately scrapped and the Ice Climbers were chosen to represent the NES era. Does that nullify his chances completely? No, of course not! But honestly, Urban Champion punches. That's all he does... so I can't really see a unique moveset being made for him. You could incorporate some stuff from the game, like tossing a flower pot (which Villager already does) or something, but the game is you vs one opponent, and all the two of you can do is throw punches. And I'd say that Little Mac already covers punches pretty well. There just isn't enough to Urban Champion - anything that could mix him up is already done by other characters.

Want: 0%
He doesn't do anything out of the ordinary, he's just a guy throwing punches on a street. I really can't see the appeal, myself. However, I do think an Urban Champion stage could be cool! The fight takes place in front of a building, with people throwing stuff out of the windows, just like the original game!

-----

Mipha chance prediction: 14.53%

Nomination:
DeMille x5

 

[Cosmic77]

Urban Champion

Chance: 5%
I don't know. I feel like Little Mac takes away from this guy's chances. Out of all the retro reps Sakurai could choose, I have a feeling he'll go with something more unusual.

Want: 10%
I like Urban Champion, but I don't really want to see him get in over a better retro choice.

Mipha prediction: 33% (I'm being optimistic)

Nominations: Corrin x5

By the way, TCT~Phantom , would you happen to know when you'll start Mipha's day? I made a pretty big post for her and I'd really like to post it close to when we start. I have some random overtime that popped up, and I'm not sure if I'll have a chance to post it anywhere besides 6:00 A.M. to noon EDT. I know you have your own schedule too, but if you could help me out here, I'd really appreciate it.

 

[BluePikmin11]

While Urban Champion’s game is known to be somewhat of a classic, he is overshadowed by Takamaru in terms of potential retro candidates. With the merits Takamaru has right now to get in this Smash, it is hard to imagine that Urban Champion will be given enough time to be considered, especially with Balloon Fighter being potential competition as well.

x5 Balloon Fighter

 

[Blackwolf666]

Urban Champion:

Chance: 1%

Want: 5%

Had to do research on who was the urban champion. In the end thought it was a cool idea but not too appealing to me though it'd be a nice little assist trophy.

Was a little disappointed by the lack of love for Travis though.

Nominations: x5 Cranky Kong

 

[NeonBurrito]

Urban Champion

Chance - 1%

Possible retro character, I guess. He was considered for Melee. Although, I'm pretty sure Takamaru will be our retro character this time around.

Want - 0%

No connection to the guy. Doesn't seem like he'd have a super interesting moveset either.

Nominations:
[Veteran] Corrin x5

 

[Runic_SSB]

Urban Champion

Chance: 0%
The only way he'd get in is as the retro character, but even then, there are better candidates.

Want: 10%
I don't really care. Honestly I never liked Urban Champion.

Mipha prediction: 10%

Nominations:
Viewtiful Joe x5

 

[andimidna]

Urban Champion:
Sure, he could be a retro character, but he seems beyond uninteresting for the pick
Chance: 2%
Want: 2%
Even without Little Mac’s inclusion I don’t think there was much to this concept, right? P sure this was generally written off around Smash 4 time too. Feels like everything interesting hat could be done with a concept like this was milked for Little Mac though, and it didn’t even turn out all that well. At least in my opinion, he’s the worst designed character in the game. This might be bad info and his game actually offers more than general fighting, so I’ll be looking out for other posts and maybe editing

Mipha prediction: 14%
For some reason I feel like when talking about all 4 we’d be more inclined to say they’re each unlikely but when taking about a single one it’ll be more conceivable. I can’t imagine anyone justifying over 25% though

x5 FE Summoner

 

[skylanders fan]

urban champion
chance
I feel like his chance is gone with little mac fitting the whole fist fighting retro guy. ALso other retro charcters would have a diffrent and creative moveset and I just don't see that with him.
10%
want
always nice to a retro charcter back in the fray.Just don't really think they can make him stand out enough compared to little mac.]
50%

nominanting labo guy x5
prediciting mipha at 12%

Also any idea when we get a update on nominations!!!

 

[Opossum]

Urban Champion

Chance: 1%
Kind of a lack of things to draw from. I see several other retro characters being more likely.

Want: 0%
Not interested at all. Doesn't help that there are several retros I'd rather see.

Predicting a 19% for Mipha
Nominating K. Rool x5

 

[CometX-ing]

Urban Champion

Chances: 1%
I only recently started hearing this name thrown around, and after looking it up, I don't think he has a chance over other retro reps that could be included. Takamaru and Excite Bike (as confusing as he would be) both are leagues ahead of this guy.

Want: 0%
Never heard of him until recently like I said before. His design is as bland as it gets, and we already got ourselves a street fighter (pun intended). I just can't see a single thing this guy would add. He screams assist trophy if anything at all.

Nominations:
Primarina x5

 

[ShinyRegice]

Urban Champion chances: 0.35%
Just a character is "retro" doesn't mean they're likely for Smash specifically by filling the specific "retro" niche. His title is pretty obscure in the grand scheme of NES games and I imagine him being among the lowest priority characters for said "retro" niche. I also believe Sakurai thought he didn't have much material for a moveset, which considering how generic he is doesn't seem surprising.

Urban Champion want: 0%
Also just because a character is "retro" doesn't mean I'm interested in them. He doesn't seem to stand out or to have interesting material going for him, so I'm completely fine with him not being playable in Smash.

Mipha prediction: 21.94%

Nominating:
Returning game mode: Smash Run x3
Returning fighter: Corrin x2

 

[Kitty-chan]

Urban Champion

Chance: .01%
An obscure retro character that Sakurai had considered for Melee, and easily lost any hope of making it into smash since Little Mac nyao exists as the boxing retro character nya. Has competition from other retro characters like Takamaru nya. I'd be shocked if he even got a trophy nya.

Want: 0%
I never even nyu this game existed until this weeks schedule came out nya. I'm nyot interested nya. I'd prefer several other retro characters over him nya.

Nyominations
Eevee: x5

 

[Troykv]

Urban Champion:

Chance: 1%

Oh my, I don't want to be rude, but this is the kind of characters that were omitted in Smash previously, and likely for don't be unique enough.

Want: 0%

I don't like uninspired designs, and this game was even fun anyway? At least IC was fun.

_______________________________________________________

Predictions:

Mipha: 19.6%

Nominations:

Steve x3
Cranky Kong x2

 

[MrElectroG64]

Urban Champion

Chance: 5%
He has a sliver of a chance to happen, but many reasons against his inclusion. The first being: Sakurai apparently wanted to add him before, but couldn't think of a moveset for him. This is a huge problem for a character if sakurai (not including literally anybody else who may be able to make one for the champ) can't visualize it, then it isn't happening. Now, there's always the possibility that he has reconsidered this and decided that NOW is his time to shine, but there's still another big reason against him, which ties into his possible reconsideration, and that's the fact that Sakurai has unintentionally chosen the retro rep for smash 5; Takamaru. Takamaru was meant to be the retro rep for smash 4, but Sakurai decided against it due to a lack of knowledge from the average consumer, due to his game never being released outside of Japan, but now that it HAS gone global thanks to its E-Shop release, his worries can now be laid to rest, especially considering people really ended up loving Takamaru's game here in the west.

Want: 5%
Not sure what he could do, but that's kinda what's makes me interested in seeing sakurai find something for him.


Nominations: Louie x5

 

[Ze Diglett]

Punchy Guy
Chance: 1%
He is a first-party character, so I'm hesitant to rate him lower than 1%, but I can't in good conscience rate him higher either. Our urban champ's already been rejected once before due to lack of moveset potential, and really, nothing's changed since then. He punches high... and he punches low. We already have plenty of dedicated fist fighters in Smash to the point where this guy wouldn't even have anything unique to offer with what little he has. He's got everything that usually spells out death for a candidate; no unique moves, virtually unknown outside the speculation scene, hasn't been seen in decades, and anti-iconic to the point of basically being nameless. These factors combined might make him a decent choice for a retro, but that category already has a clear frontrunner this time around, that being Takamaru, and even if Sakurai decides to pull a Sakurai by not going with the most predictable choice, there are dozens of better retros with more moveset potential and popularity, from Balloon Fighter to Excitebiker to Sheriff. I'm convinced the only reason Urban Champion gets brought up at all these days is because Sakurai mentioned him once, and that was just to rightfully turn him down for having no merit whatsoever beyond originating from an incredibly simple and unpopular fighting game.

Want: 0%
One word: BORING. Everything about this dude is boring, from his design to his moves to his game. I seriously can't think of a way to make Urban Champion interesting with the incredibly limited resume he has. I suppose they could make him representative of the NES as a whole, but... why? Why, of all people, and of all things, would Urban Champion represent the console that put Nintendo on the map? This is a prime example of a character who just flat-out makes no sense to add no matter what angle you approach him from; if you want a retro, there's a cavalcade of characters better suited for the job, and if you want a newcomer who originates from a fighting game, ARMS is incredibly recent and also has a foreseeable future to speak of, and even if you want both in one newcomer, Sukapon's got you covered. Not saying Sukapon's exactly a great option either, but those Rayman limbs of his would at least offer more from a creative standpoint than anything Urban Champion has to offer. I want characters with movesets, not two punches. I wouldn't be against an Urban Champion-themed stage, and maybe they could even make the character work as an Assist Trophy - an incredibly bland and likely ineffectual Assist Trophy, but an Assist Trophy nonetheless - but when it comes to the roster, keep snoozers like Urban Champion out of Smash.

Mipha Prediction: 15.37%. An unhealthy amount of people seem to think Zelda "needs" a newcomer this time around, and an even more unhealthy amount of people seem to think that character must come from the most recent Zelda game, even if they're a bunch of complete and total one-offs who will have minimal fan pull for the next Smash game assuming they don't get in. For this reason, I can see Mipha's projected chances being inflated massively.

Nominating Gooey x5

 

[fogbadge]

urban champion

chances: 10% i dont see it happening

want: 100% my most wanted retro character

 

[Kirby Dragons]

Nobody tagged me...

But anyways, chance: 4%

He was considered once for Melee. If Sakurai did think about him again, he wouldn't make it past the consideration phase. In his game, he just punches, and funnily enough, some of the other stuff in his game is used in other characters' movesets; has a flower pot, and has a manhole cover. Pretty much the only thing left to use is cars. Or, if they want to take a bunch of creative liberties, give him a knife, chains, crowbars, etc. to give him a gangster moveset.

Want: 95%

I never played Urban Champion, and I'm aware the game's bad. But when I learned about the Melee 4 (Excitebiker, Balloon Fighter, Bubbles, and Urban Champion) I started supporting them. I don't support all of them anymore, but Urban Champion stayed with me the most, even to the point where I made a moveset for him. I kind of like his super simple design, but it'd be interesting if he was given a super gutsy gangster attitude. As far as gameplay, he'd be with projectiles, and more throwing himself at the opponent as opposed to just punches.

Nominations: Kamek x5