Pichu
Chances: 18%
HeartGold and SoulSilver came and gave Pichu a second life under the spotlight. Then HeartGold and SoulSilver left.
Smash 4: Revenge of the Clones saw almost everyone cut from Melee return in triumph, leaving only Young Link and Pichu in the dust. Unlike the former, the baby mouse has both the history and the gimmick to stand out from Pikachu and the rest of the Gen 1, but also a lot of infamy from a moveset that made no attempts to play around the gimmick he was burdened with. A modern Pichu set would require either a lot more power to make up for all the self-damage inflicted, or a complete overhaul to what's literally a baby Pikachu.
There's more against Pichu than just his history with Smash, however. With The Pokemon Company's attention firmly on the extreme ends of their generations (that is to say, either the first or the latest), Johto's been pushed back into the shadows from both corporate and fandom memory; every generation added is another generation arguing for for its own Smash representative. In Melee, Pichu was nothing less than one of the few viable choices when there was only a lone 2nd generation to account for, but competing against a 3rd and 4th generation in Brawl gave him the boot, while the 5th and 6th generations walled him out of Smash 4 despite it giving full support to Melee veterans. With the 7th generation in its crescendo and an 8th on the horizon, poor Pichu just hasn't evolved past his role as a cutesy advert of its time to stay within consideration.
Want: 45%
Despite everything, I still wish Pichu was around as a choice to really style on people in the hands of those good enough to use him. Johto is still nostalgic enough for me that I'd greet his return pretty warmly. But I can't give him such an easy vote as I did before, especially given how many new Pokemon reps there are battling for the chance to Smash.
Young Link
Chances: 8%
With Toon Link representing all the titles that share his distinct style and Sheik already filling in as Ocarina of Time's rep, Young Link's claim to his franchise's history leave him with the recently-reworked Majora's Mask and surprisingly enough, A Link Between Worlds. Compared to most other usual suspects on these speculation rosters, that's a heck of a lot better than most characters get! Too bad Revenge of the Clones skipped him anyway, and Breath of the Wild came out afterwards.
Three Marios of distinct histories already struggle to squeeze into any sensible roster. Three overly-similar Links where only two of them represent majority of the series means that an obvious choice has to be cut. There's no "it's just an extra slot" argument here: Young Link has to compete against both adult Link and Toon Link to get in, both of whom already push the different strengths that he represents to their effective extremes. Smash loses only a few Melee mains and LoZ titles by leaving out this textbook case of redundancy.
Want: 6%
I'm not up for getting this kid back, and I only tentatively support making him a Toon Link alt. That would require a few different taunts, victory animations, and other changes that'd take more than the usual work alts would get, making it something that I don't strongly expect development to go out of their way for. Young Link may have a few key games in the Legend of Zelda saga under his name, but it's not nearly enough to trump either Links' case.
Predictions:
Crash: 57%
Nominations:
Arle Nadja 5x
