Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Organization XIII]

Actually, I only counted you for the five last update, as I determined (at the the time) that none of us won. That was before Phantom doled out the bonus ones for us. So I'm pretty sure you've still got five. Thanks for being so honest about it, though!

I'm assuming you'd want them for Tethu, right?

Ok, that makes sense, I just didn't want to double dip. And yes, all my extra noms for Tethu. Thanks.

 

[NintenRob]

Chrom
Chance 1%
Let's be real, his time has passed and we add already have Robin. Even as a clone Lucina clearly has priority. Sakurai very publicly dismissed him. He was humiliated in Robins trailer and even in the game Viridi dismisses him as being too similar to Ike.
Want: 5%
I like Chrom, but I don't want any more Fire Emblem characters

Nominate
Skull Kid x1
Parabo and Satebo x4

Prediction
ARMS 76%
Rhythm Heaven 43%

 

[Diddy Kong]

Chrom

Chance: 60%

Yes you read that right. 60%. Am being generous here for a good reason. Why, you ask?

Lucina is already in the game, and yes she was supposed to be a alt of Marth. However, her popularity spiked after Smash 4. Heroes and Warriors proof this as well as popularity polls of Fire Emblem characters, IS advertising her a lot, crossovers and all that good stuff. To me, there's NO REASON to cut Lucina. She's literally 'modern Marth', and could easily return as a playable character in Fire Emblem (Laslow, Selena and ODIN DARK proof this already in Fates).

Now if Lucina returns and gets a little moveset overhaul, Chrom could easily end up being an alt.

Then remember how Chrom got a Mii Costume, a 3D model as detailed as the rest of the playable cast, Smash Switch seemingly building up from Smash 4 (easy to port model over), lasting popularity and iconic status, a sort of protagonist role in that FE x SMT game (forgot the name).. plus he was considered even for Smash 4 already, and he was teased that 'his chance might be another day'.

Read between the lines, Chrom makes ALOT OF SENSE.

Plus it's less lilely they'll focus a lot on FE newcomers, and a reworked Lucina with Chrom as alt might just seal the deal of adding "fresh meat" for the Fire Emblem cast.

Want: 85%

Reworked Lucina is already exciting. So it has my support. I'd probably rather have Alm, or Celica or both. But this is also fine. I'd also take Chrom as a downright clone of Lucina but slightly stronger, slower and heavier than her. He's a fine extra that doesn't need much work done. That being said, there's more exiting newcomers to look out for, sure.

Nominating Impa x 5

 

[wildvine47]

Chrom

Chance: 4% - Yeah, dude got passed over for his own kid and best friend/sometimes wife. His game is old hat now, and Heroes can't really be counted considering it gives EVERYONE from the entire franchise a boost. Only way I can see it happening is if he ends up as an alt character costume for Lucina or Ike, but even then there's the problem of Robin, one of the safest FE vets, having Chrom as his Final Smash. There's very little light for Chrom at the end of this tunnel.

Want: 45% - As a Ridley supporter, I sympathize for Chrom fans regarding his situation. We're two of the only characters Sakurai's directly shot down, for one reason or another. But at the same time, I definitely had my fill of Fire Emblem characters as of last game, and my ideal outcome for Fire Emblem this time around is for it to just stay as-is. This is probably the highest score I'd be willing to give any Fire Emblem character this go around. Corrin really soured my feeling towards the franchise's Smash representation.

Predictions
Arms Rep: 61.16%
Rhythm Heaven Rep: 50.05%

Nominations: Dark Matter Blade x 5

 

[AwesomeAussie27]

Chrom

Chance: 4%

Chrom is in a tight spot. He is a part of Robin's Final Smash, he's no longer a relevant Lord, there are enough Awakening reps, and that new Fire Emblem character can be from a newer game. And Sakurai made it clear that he doesn't find him an interesting fighter.

Sorry best husbando.

Want: 60%

There are loads of Fire Emblem characters I'd rather have. But I wouldn't mind him at all since he can make a passable character.

Prediction

Rhythm Heaven Character: 44%

ARMS character: 57%

Nomination: Tsubasa Oribe x5

 

[YoshiandToad]

Chrom

Chance: 10%
Vocal fanbase during the polling time, Warriors made him relevant(ish) again, Awakening was very much loved whilst Fates appears to have split Fire Emblem fans and I'm sure his Mii outfit sold decently well.
Unfortunately there's a lot of Fire Emblem competition, and Chrom being added at this point may seem like a weird choice after Robin and Lucina made the cut LAST Smash.
If Smash Switch IS a port I'd be willing to increase to 30% because his model is already in there.

Want: 15%
Hmm...I don't hate Chrom, it's just he's another Sword Lord with the only suggestion I see for him is either making him a more speedy Ike, a more heavyweight Marth or change his iconic weapon to a spear because he can weild spears too in Awakening.
Robin was definitely the right call from a gameplay perspective and variety perspective. I think I'd warm up to him eventually more than I did with say Lucina, but I'm not exactly rooting for a new FE character unless they offer vastly different gameplay.

Predictions:
Arms Rep: 49%
Rhythm Heaven Rep: 36%

Nominations:
Concept: Zelda Newcomer X 5

 

[Troykv]

Chrom

Chance: 60%

Yes you read that right. 60%. Am being generous here for a good reason. Why, you ask?

Lucina is already in the game, and yes she was supposed to be a alt of Marth. However, her popularity spiked after Smash 4. Heroes and Warriors proof this as well as popularity polls of Fire Emblem characters, IS advertising her a lot, crossovers and all that good stuff. To me, there's NO REASON to cut Lucina. She's literally 'modern Marth', and could easily return as a playable character in Fire Emblem (Laslow, Selena and ODIN DARK proof this already in Fates).

Now if Lucina returns and gets a little moveset overhaul, Chrom could easily end up being an alt.

Then remember how Chrom got a Mii Costume, a 3D model as detailed as the rest of the playable cast, Smash Switch seemingly building up from Smash 4 (easy to port model over), lasting popularity and iconic status, a sort of protagonist role in that FE x SMT game (forgot the name).. plus he was considered even for Smash 4 already, and he was teased that 'his chance might be another day'.

Read between the lines, Chrom makes ALOT OF SENSE.

Plus it's less lilely they'll focus a lot on FE newcomers, and a reworked Lucina with Chrom as alt might just seal the deal of adding "fresh meat" for the Fire Emblem cast.

Want: 85%

Reworked Lucina is already exciting. So it has my support. I'd probably rather have Alm, or Celica or both. But this is also fine. I'd also take Chrom as a downright clone of Lucina but slightly stronger, slower and heavier than her. He's a fine extra that doesn't need much work done. That being said, there's more exiting newcomers to look out for, sure.

Nominating Impa x 5

I think I should start nominating "Chrom as a Lucina Alt" after the Micaiah day considering this idea actually makes a lot of sense xD

 

[Runic_SSB]

All of those people who say "No more Fire Emblem" are setting themselves up for major disappointment.

We're already majorly disappointed, that's why we're saying it. It's also clear that Sakurai hears us and he even agrees that there are too many FE characters. Laugh all you want, but there's definitely gonna be a net loss in FE characters in Smash 5.

 

[andimidna]

Chrom:
I’m rating this as a solo character. This doesn’t mean an alt. That’s a separate concept. This also doesn’t mean my preferred idea of reworking Lucina by pairing her up with Chrom (and giving Robin a Grima final smash). I see this as rating a solo character, regardless of being a clone or having a unique moveset.
Chance: 0.5%
There’s no way Chrom would replace Lucina for no apparent reason. There’s also just about no way they go against what they’ve said before to give this less distinct character a unique moveset. Another FE clone is ridiculously unlikely imo. Some people seriously think there’s 6 fully fleshed characters in Smash 4, since they don’t get how little development Lucina would’ve required compared to characters like Shulk or Little Mac. For him to get a unique solo moveset, Lucina would have to also be getting one, which sounds nice ig, but that just isn’t where the series is rn. Honestly, I even consider Azura to be a mostly outdated pick, and I can’t see them using solo Chrom over her or a Valentia or FE Switch concept, and they honestly have to choose. It’s at the point where not every major/unique/new/popular protagonist can make it. That’d require over saturation in terms of allocating resources towards making characters. Representing characters through alts is a different story, and one I personally love for quite a few picks.
Want: 30%
I don’t hate Chrom at all. When I played Awakening, I found him kinda basic (which kinda worked since Sumia was too lmao), and found Robin and Lucina way more appealing, and was so ecstatic to see them in. It does seem kind of weird to have them and not Chrom, honestly. Many people want to just cut Lucina and have Robin as the sole “Awakening representative”, and I get that, but even the minimal work that went into making Lucina distinct and balancing from there doesn’t have to go to waste. I really love the idea of representing the pair up mechanic and putting them together. I think he could utilize Roy’s moveset, and maybe this is how Roy could be represented as well, with a pair up alt of Lucina, maybe being his dad Eliwood to kill 2 birds with one stone? I don’t know. Even Alm and Celica could work like this. Either way, I’d probably leave this concept for DLC entirely. Especially if they were the only characters “cut,” you’d be able to get some vocal demand for them come DLC reveal.
There’s just so many great characters and moveset types, and it almost feels limited by some lackluster protagonists. However, Robin>Chrom was a great exception to that.
If there was going to be a new solo clone, which there REALLY shouldn’t be, I’d say Celica as a Robin clone would be the best pick. Do not remotely base another FE character off Marth, please. For Lucina it’s fine, and Roy is ok- famous for Smash but not really for his FE game, but another one would clearly cross the line. Tiki as a semiclone of Corrin, if possible, could be crazy interesting, but I doubt that’s possible and it doesn’t really make sense. I love Anna, but I’m not seeing her as a clone of anyone. At the same time, she could accurately be a clone of anyone though. I don’t see Azura as a clone of anyone except Palutena, which would be almost as weird to see as Falcondorf now that we know that moveset.
Edit: There’s always the concept of a summoner utilizing the Marth clones lmao. I’m not even gonna pretend that has a serious chance, as interesting as it could possibly be as a way to use those old assets while “trimming the fat” of the roster as damage control for anti-FE complaints.

I don’t like the complaints about too many FE characters, when it’s really not a problem. This would exacerbate stereotypes worse than any other remotely feasible character option from FE imo. I don’t want that for the series, since I love it.
Although, I’d only see him being added solo if he was fully unique, and Lucina had been made to be so also, which sounds great. Also, I just love the series and Awakening, and I’m so happy to see FE be well represented in Smash.

And ultimately for Lucina, I’d only miss her a little bit if she was demoted to an alt. As long as she stayed playable and kept her voice lines, I’d be fine. I loved her bc she was such a passionate character, but her animations and expressions seemed so lackluster in Smash. I get it; it’s a totally different type of game and has full fledged models to deal with, but it seemed p obvious that they didn’t put much time into her. And if they gave her a ton of love, making her unique and fixing her up, I think there’d still be a vocal group complaining about how that work could’ve gone to someone else. However, if she’s returned with no changes, there’s going to be a group complaining she’s a clone. Also, if she’s removed, there’s going to be people complaining and wanting her back. There isn’t a perfect way to do this, but I think the first has the least drawbacks, or a combination of the 3rd and 1st where their data is held from the game to release the pair up later on.

It probably sounds ridiculous to go through so much damage control just for a character, but most cuts really aren’t well received. The only ones nobody really talks about anymore are the 3 Pokemon.

Idk I’m just ranting at this point. This is so disorganized lmao

Pred:
RH: 60%
ARMS: 75%

X5 Midna

Edit: I don’t see a net loss happening when this game probably started as a port tbh. I think it makes a lot more sense to work with what resources you’re given.

 

[Quetzal77]

I'm just gonna jump in here really quickly.

Did we play the same game? Because holy **** you misinterpreted Chrom's character completely.

He's far from arrogant. He recognizes the benefits of other's viewpoints even when they aren't his own, case in point, his views on Emmeryn's beliefs, which aren't his own. And in the final battle, he has ample reason to try to save Robin, because at that point in the game, he, Robin, and Lucina had already altered their supposed destiny several times over.

And to say he refuses to acknowledge Ylisse's past transgressions is profoundly dumb. His entire character is built upon the fact that he became the complete opposite of his father, who he acknowledged as a complete monster. He fights alongside the Shepherds like family while his dad sent untrained soldiers to die as meat shields. He's not only acknowledging Ylisse's wrongdoings, he's atoning for them.

And no growth? Lol. His growth was the entire point of the Valm arc, since it showcased how he grew as a leader.

Like it's fine if you don't like him but don't make **** up. It's petty.

Dang.

I critiqued a character you like, you have every right to refute my arguments, but what's with the personal attacks? You don't even know me.

1. He dismisses Walhart over and over and professes Emmeryn's extreme pacifism is the only correct view when clearly neither extreme is the answer.

2. He is willing to doom future generations to suffer under a resurrected Grima if it means saving one person, even though his own daughter comes from a future where Grima destroyed the world, while he constantly acts superior to the villains because he claims he is a warrior for the greater good.

3. How exactly is he atoning for his father's atrocities against Plegia? He, and Emm before him, haven't done anything to fix the problems caused by their family. It's the whole reason Gangrel is so angry. Chrom literally ends Plegia's royal line and leaves without even putting anyone in charge leaving the doors wide open for Validar to come in and take advantage of the situation to resurrect Grima. What you're arguing seems like headcanon.

Let's not derail the thread further, if you wanna message me, that's fine.

 

[DaUsername]

Chrom
Chance: 5%
He got rejected once, it'll probably happen again.
Want: 0%
In short, no.

Arms prediction: 70%
RH prediction: 30%
Noms: Mike Jones x5

 

[DNeon]

Chrom

Chance: 8%

Lucina is the much more popular character from the game, by a large margin. The only way I see him making it in is if Lucina gets entirely decloned and Sakurai still wants a tipperless Marth without it using the Marth model.

Want: 0%

He's already represented, we don't need even more FE characters, especially from the same game.

ARMS Character Prediction: 63% (.93 for the random two numbers I usually put after)

Rhythm Heaven Character Prediction: 48% (.39)

Nominations:
Andy x 4 (9?)
Travis Touchdown x 1

EDIT: If we're counting the bonus noms from today instead of the earlier ones then give mah boy Andy another 5

Also for real guys, 85% for the next pokemon generation is a disgustingly low average. I'm calling you all out, I said it in my post but anyone who even suggested something below that is either just not bothering to hide their Pokemon hatred or tanking for their predictions. There is no reason to believe they won't be in, what the hell are yall thinking?

 

[Smasher 101]

Chrom

Chance: 0.5%

I'm also rating this solely as the possibility of Chrom getting in as a new, standalone character, and I strongly doubt he'll even be considered this time. Awakening's characters have already been chosen. His time has passed.

Want: 30%

Man, this is a weird one for me to rank. I was a Chrom supporter in Smash 4, because I felt he would have been the choice from Awakening I'd enjoy playing as the most. That said despite my initial disappointment I completely understand why Robin and Lucina made it and he didn't, and I don't think they should be removed. I've now moved on, Awakening is represented fine and there are plenty of characters that interest me more nowadays. I wouldn't complain if he somehow gets in now though. I'd be completely confused, but I wouldn't complain.

Rhythm Heaven prediction: 45.92%
Arms prediction: 64.23%

Nominations: Jibanyan x5

 

[GaroMaster]

Chrom
Chance: 1%
He had his chance during Smash 4 and Sakurai passed him up for Robin and Lucina for Awakening newcomers. I realize Chrom is popular among the Fire Emblem fanbase, but Chrom has quite an uphill battle ahead of him since Sakurai said he wouldn't be unique enough and there are more recent FE characters to look at. Needless to say, things don't look good for Chrom.
Want: Abstain
I am not familiar enough with the Fire Emblem series to give a solid opinion on Chrom.
Nominations:
x5: Capcom character

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Everything is Chrom in the Future Chance: Abstain

I really don't know enough about Fire Emblem to reasonably give any rating to the guy.

Want: 25%

If he could do something interesting, I'd welcome him. Otherwise, I'm getting rather tired of the many Fire Emblem characters on the roster. Blame that on my lack of familiarity with the FE franchise. I've never once played a single game from it. One day I hope to change that.

Nominations: Shovel Knight x5

 

[ProfPeanut]

Chrom

Chances: 5%
Poor Chrom. He was only ever going to get in by riding the Relevance train, but he was targeted and shot out by Sakurai himself. Whereas Lucina has the option to either declone or become a Marth alt, Chrom isn't as easy to imagine doing Dancing Blades and spacing games. Don't get me wrong, it's not impossible to make him a Marth alt, but he's stuck in this thematic middle between Marth and Ike where neither moveset would really suit him. And making him an entirely new and distinguishable moveset would just be such a tall order for a swordsman with no extra powers to complement him.

Want: 24%
The man deserves a little more than this fate. Especially more than that one-dimensional wet blanket of a manakete.


Predictions
ARMS Rep Prediction: 87%
Rhythm Heaver Rep: 45%

Nominations:
Arle Nadja x5

 

[Parallel_Falchion]

Chrom
Chance: 5%
Don't see it happening even as an alt or clone.

Want: 20%
And that's only if he were a clone or alt. I like Chrom well enough as a character, but I didn't want him for Smash 4 and I don't want him for Smash 5. And it's not because "too much FE," I love FE and I'd totally take more FE newcomers, but Chrom is pretty low on that list. He's just not distinctive enough, in his own series or for Smash.

Nominate 2B x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Chrom

40 % Chance

This is purely as a last minute clone, I feel they would do this since the model does exist in Robins Final Smash, and an alternative character like Morgan could be used.

69% Want

I was always a robin fan, but I feel bad for Chrom fans. Throw them a bone.

Nominating No Cuts x 5

Day over, calcs in the morning

 

[NintenRob]

Maybe I'm crazy but that seemed like a rather short day

 

[Edgelord_197]

Chrom
20 % Chance
Sakurai pretty much said he was a boring choice

10% want
I liked him in Awakening, but I don't really want him in Smash
I would be ok if he was an alt for Ike or replaces Corrin

Nominations : 5x Marx

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Since today was a short day, I will extend the day until 7:00 EST. Any votes placed before 7:00 EST will be counted. Day will start around 8:30 est.

 

[Sailor Waddle Dee]

wow. today went fast. I slept through the whole thing.
assuming I'm within the exxtension period.

Chrom

Chance: 12% - There's every possibility that we'll get another FE character. and there's every possibility that character could end up being Chrom. but I feel like his time has kind of passed now. and they're more likely to go with a more recent FE character. or one that feels more unique.

Want: 0% - FE is represented enough in my eyes. and if anyone new gets in, I'd want it to be someone more interesting than Chrom.

Predictions
Arms rep: 98%
Rhythm Heaven Rep: 67%

Nominations
Qbby x5

 

[Runic_SSB]

Since today was a short day, I will extend the day until 7:00 EST. Any votes placed before 7:00 EST will be counted. Day will start around 8:30 est.

*EDT, we're in daylight time now.

 

[ETFruitNinja]

Chrom's chances - 5%

While Robin was a unique edition, I can't help but feel bad for Chrom. Unfortunately, as the Fire Emblem universe continues to expand with the recent announcement of a new Fire Emblem coming to the Switch, Awakening is in the past now. I think it is unlikely that Sakurai would introduce a character from an older game, as it seems to be a pattern where characters from the recent games are added besides Marth. (Roy in Melee before Binding Blade, Ike in Brawl with Path of Radiance, Robin/Lucina and Corrin in SSB4 with Awakening and Fates) So many characters I love from the older games whose opportunities have already slipped by. Alm and Celica are definitely possible with Shadows of Valentia if we were to evaluate based on how recent their games are, as well as characters from Heroes? (Check my Veronica thread btw) but Awakening has already been buried by multiple other games in the series.

Want - 40%

While Chrom might just be another sword fighter, he is among the most popular characters in the series (I've never played Awakening, I definitely should though). He'll also finally get the "chance" he's been waiting for since Robin's reveal, which I think would be really cool lol.

 

[PhilosophicAnimal]

Well, the day may be extended...but I'm capping the noms of here as of this post--I won't be up in the morning, unfortunately. Any noms after this will be on tomorrow's update. But that's enough about that...on to noms!

Noms update, day eighteen

Spoiler: NOMINATIONS

Nominations List

Andy x 172
Celica x 170
Dillon x 164
Midna x147
Concept : Zelda Newcomer x 142
Professor Layton x 142
Eggman x 132
Shulk x 130
Bomberman x 128
Decidueye x 126
Marx x 125
Chibi Robo x 124
Lucina x 115
Shovel Knight x 113
Concept: No Cuts x 111
Doomguy x 110
Anna (Fire Emblem) x 108
Waluigi x 107
Banjo Kazooie x 107
Phoenix Wright x 106
Skull Kid x97
Sora x 93
Lucas x 90
Jibanyan x88
Lana (Hyrule Warriors) x81
Micaiah x 83
Concept: veteran character artworks recycled from Smash 3DS/Wii U x78
Geno x 75
Snip & Clip (Snipperclips) x73
Elma x63
Travis Touchdown x 61
New story mode x60
Agumon x60
Mewtwo x 57
Pyra/Mythra (without Rex) x56
Excitebiker x54
Kamek x53
Sans (Undertale) x52
Tethu (Ever Oasis) x50
Labo Related Character x 49
Roy x48
Urban Champion x46
Hades x46
Tsubasa Oribe x45
Ken Masters Alt Costume for Ryu x45
Funky Kong x43
Dark Matter Blade x43
Lycanroc x40
Qbby (from Boxboy) x39
Henry Fleming (Code Name STEAM) x38
2B x 38
Black Shadow x36
Ryu Hayabusa x35
Arle Nadja x35
Simon Belmont x35
Concept: Decloned Dark Pit x32
Blue Bowser x29
Lloyd Irving x27
Concept - Skyrim representation x27
Hector (Fire Emblem) x 26
Susie (Kirby) x25
Klonoa x25
Sophitia x25
Neku x 25
Masked Link x24
Ashley (WarioWare) x24
Azura x 24
Concept Indie Character x 22
Mipha x22
Style Savvy Rep x 22
Scizor x 21
Palutena x 21
Arcade Rabbit x 20
Concept: Fire Emblem Spear User x20
Concept: Decloned Ganondorf x20
Concept: New Mother Character x 20
Music: Final Destination (Ver. 2) x20
Concept: Historical Nintendo character (Similar to Game and Watch or R.O.B.) x20
Takumi (FE Fates) x19
Ganon (not Ganondorf) x19
Parabo and Satebo x16
Concept: Advance Wars CO x16
Returning game mode: Smash Run x15
Mike Jones (StarTropics) x15
Tiki (Fire Emblem) x15
Wonder Red (The Wonderful 101) x15
Medusa x 14
Impa x 14
Mallo (Pushmo) x 12
9-Volt (WarioWare) x12
Doshin the Giant x12
Bayonetta x12
Concept: Sonic Mania Stage x12
Concept: Capcom Character x12
Greninja x11
Dark Samus x 11
Poipole (Pokemon) x11
Concept: F-Zero Newcomer x9
Robin x 9
Petey Piranha x9
Viridi x9
Mimikyu x 9
Pac-Man x9
Fawful x8
Concept: Canon Bowser/DK/Diddy voice clips x8
Sonic x 7
Incineroar x7
Concept: Custom Moves Return x7
Sylux x7
Balloon Fighter x7
Cloud x6
Nia and Dromarch x6
Master Chief x 5
Steve (Minecraft) x5
Prince Fluff x5
Ninten x 5
Concept: Mega Man 11 stage x5
Concept: Return of transformation characters x5
Slippy Toad x5
Concept - Melee/Brawl style Classic mode x5
Ray (Custom Robo) x 5
Ayane x5
Alm (Fire Emblem) x 5
Zeraora x5
Concept: Metroid: Samus Returns Stage x5
Asuka x5
Abraham Lincoln (Codename STEAM) x5
Masked Man (Mother 3) x5
Gooey (Kirby Series) x5
Ayumi Tachibana x5
Itsuki Aoi x5
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei Protagonist x5
Monita (NintendoLand) x5
Cross/Rook/Avatar (Xenoblade Chronicles X) x5
Toon Link x5
Yooka & Laylee x5
Caeda x5
Concept: Charizard Remerged with Pokemon Trainer+complete movesets x5
Shadow the Hedgehog x4
Ghirahim x4
Lip (Panel de Pon) x4
Cranky Kong x4
Mii Fighters x 4
KOS-MOS x4
Mario RPG representation (Including Paper Mario and M&L) x3
Poochy (Yoshi series) x3
Corrin x 3
Porky Minch x3
Veronica (Fire Emblem) x3
Wii Fit Trainer x3
Specter Knight x3
Solaire (Dark Souls) x3
Tom Nook x3
Dragonborn x3
Scorpion (Mortal Kombat) x3
King Boo x2
Vaati x2
Nightmare (SoulCalibur) x2
Joker (Persona 5) x2
Zangoose x2
Concept: The Sims character x2
Toon Zelda x2
Tails x 2
Toadette x2
Jack Frost (Shin Megami Tensei) x2
Endou Mamoru x2
Tora and Poppi x2
Dragonite x2
Garon x1
Rosalina & Luma x1
Bowser Jr. x1
Black Mage (Final Fantasy) x1
Knuckles the Echidna x1
Dark Pit x1
New Mii Fighter types (concept) x 1
Fjorm (Fire Emblem Heroes) x1
Harry (Teleroboxer) x 1
Sheik x1
Concept: Snipperclips representation x1
Tetra x1
Undertale Representation x1
Revali x1
Daruk x1
Urbosa x1
Jack (Harvest Moon) x1
Sol Badguy x1
Kyo Kusanagi x1
Leo (FE Fates) x1
Ryoma (FE Fates) x1
Falco x1
Vivian (Paper Mario) x1
Mallow (SMRPG) x1
Concept: Playable Master/Crazy Hand x1
Blastoise x1
Alph x1
Marshal (Rhythm Heaven) x1
Tapu Koko x1
Bubbles (Clu Clu Land) x1
Isabelle x1
Hyness (Kirby Star Allies) x1
Hyper Light Drifter x1
Dark Falz x1
Silvally x1
Mach Rider x1
Sable Prince x1
Hat Kid (A Hat in Time) x1
Sukapon x1
Toad x1
Slime (Dragon Quest?) x1

Notes:

Ye gods! Celica's...been usurped! After much strategizing, Andy finally takes the throne. But it's barely a lead...can he maintain it?

Noms:
Henry Fleming x5

EDIT:
PhilosophicAnimal
I don’t know if this is against the rules, but... Is there any way you could change “Codename: S.T.E.A.M rep” on the noms list to Henry Fleming? I’m 99% sure I’m the only person who has been voting for it, and since someone else has voted for Lincoln already, I think Henry is the only possible option for a playable character. If it’s too much trouble or breaks the rules, that’s cool too.

I went ahead and changed it, but on one condition: if anyone else actually did vote for a general STEAM rep, and takes issue with the change, then let me know and I'll reassign your noms back to the old entry. But I'll need proof, so if anyone reading this did indeed nominate a general STEAM rep, quote your post where you did and I'll change it.

Nomination: Tiki X10 (Not sure if that is allowed since I did 2 days at once but if not sorry and just do X5)

I only got you for five, as the calculations had already been done for the previous round (That's usually the cutoff.)

New additions this round:

Dragonite x2
Zeraora x5
Hat Kid (A Hat in Time) x1
Sukapon x1
Toad x1
Slime (Dragon Quest?) x1

Nominate:
Slime x1

I assumed you meant the Dragon Quest one, right? Just FYI, if you're nominating a character with a more generic/common name, be sure to specify what game or series it's from. Thanks!

Edit: added a few notes I forgot. Oh, and TCT~Phantom , here's a tag for when the time comes, lol.

 

[Godzillathewonderdog]

Chrom

Chances: 1%
I see no reason to believe Sakurai would change his mind on Chrom. Awakening fans seem satisfied with Robin and Lucina, and I doubt he would go back and add him with how old Awakening is, and how there are other newer games to pick characters from.

Want: 10%
I'm satisfied with Robin and Lucina.

Nominations: Geno x5

 

[RosiePeaches]

Chrom

Chances: 35%

Chrom isn’t exactly an irrelevant character at all. He was in many recent Fire Emblem games and he had a main role in Tokyo Mirage Sessions #FE. Chrom’s model is also highly detailed, on par with the rest of the Fire Emblem cast. He was also popular enough to get an amiibo. Although I don’t know if Sakurai is wanting to add another FE character.

Want: 35%

Neutral to him.

Nominations: Tails x5

 

[Tonydrake]

Chrom

Chances: 5%

The only way I can see him playable is being an alt skin for another Fire Emblem character like Lucina or Marth if Sakurai wants to add more FE characters using alt skins. He's still popular and already have a model ingame so he would be high in alt skins priority. But no way he gets his own slot, just no.

Want: 90 %

When Smash 4 was announced Chrom was my most wanted Fire Emblem newcomer (and my favourite male character after Ike), then the leaks came out and all of the characters in that leak were being announced (Palutena, Shulk, Pokemon from X/Y) so I got very excited. And then... well, Robin and Lucina were announced. I hate leaks since that day xd

I love both Robin and Lucina and I use them a lot in Smash but it was hard to accept he was a mistake in the leak...

I don't say 100 % because even if I'm a Chrom fan I would rather someone like Lyn or Celica over him to represent something different from Awakening, but god, Chrom would make me so, so happy

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Chrom

8.18% Chance
27.51% Want

Chrom did not have his chance today. He is less likely in the eyes of many than any other character thus far. His want chances also have decayed greatly, though he does still have some stalwart fans. The FE hate train was strong, with a mode want score of 0% which showed up 25 times.

Today on a lighter note we have a double day. In one corner we have another element of the Gematsu Leak, a Rhythm Heaven Character. On the other side, we have the new kid on the block in ARMS. Rate the chance and want of either of these franchises getting a newcomer. Also tomorrow we have another double day, Daisy and Paper Mario. Please predict their scores.

wildvine47 was so close (within .01%), so they get 5 extra noms.

 

[Depressed Gengar]

Arms Character Chance: 80%
I guess there's a chance it might not happen but I think it's going to happen.

... Also, let's be real here, it's for sure going to be Spring Man.

Want: Abstain
Depends on who it is. That said, Min Min or Helix would be pretty cool, even if they definitely wouldn't happen.

RH Character Chance AND Want: Abstain
Honestly it's impossible for me to tell with this one. And, again, for want, it depends on who.

Daisy Prediction: 10%

Paper Mario Prediction: 35%

Nominations: Dr. Eggman X5

 

[Leafeon523]

LEGS:
Chance: 80%
Probably the highest score I'll give to anything that isn't a veteran character. It's such an obvious choice, eacpecially since inklings have been confirmed.

Want: 60%
I know little about LEGS, so I'm indifferent to almost every character in the cast. That said, I'm a sucker for having more series be represented, and that jello guy would be hilarious.

One Egg:
Chance: 33%
This would probably be around 3% if it wasn't for all of the hype last time around. But the series seems to have been on the decline lately. Megamix couldn't even be awarded a physical release in America. Still, there was that enemy back in smash run, so there's that to consider.

Want: 30%
So I'm in a really weird spot with rhythm heaven. I absolutely loved playing through fever and Megamix. But I would prefer having a rhythm heaven stage to a character any day of the month. I know it's likely that they would throw in a stage of they put in a character, but I could also see them just shoehorning in the character ala ROB. A character would it be awful, but I'd be infinitely peeved if we didn't end up getting a stage because we got a character instead.

Predicting HI IM DAISY at 12%
Paper Boi at 17%
Nominating Snip/Clip x4
Sans x1

 

[Dalek_Kolt]

ARMS:
Want: 50%. I played a little of the game, and I had fun with it. Only complaint I have is that the main character Spring Man is easily the least interesting of the cast, but hopefully they can pull a Bowser Jr. model swap.
Expect: 50%.

Rhythm Heaven newcomer:
Want: 0%. Haven't played the games so I can't form an informed opinion.
Expect: 25%.

 

[Deleted member]

Rhythm Heaven

Chance: 50%
I'd say it's a coin flip. The lastest game in the series came out 3 years ago, which is a year before the Smash 5's development started (that's what I think, anyway). However, considering a character from the series was supposedly low priority for Sm4sh, it could end up at the same position as last time.

Want: 85%
I like Rhythm Heaven, and I'd like a Game & Watch-esque fighter with a rhythm based moveset, even if it's not one of my biggest priorities. Preferably not Karate Joe however, as I find him generic.

Arms

Chance: 30%
Yes, you're reading this correctly. I don't think an Arms character is as likely as people think it is. Like I said before, I believe the game's development started back in 2016, when Arms was probably just a concept art. "But Lampy," you're probably thinking to yourself, "don't forget about Greninja!" Greninja is from Pokemon, one of the most succesful franchises of all time. Arms was a new IP and adding a character from there before the game's release would be a massive gamble as the game could end up flopping.
Maybe it could be DLC but I doubt it, and that's for another time.

Want; 20%
I dislike the character designs and the soundtrack, and I didn't like what little I've played of it (I'll be honest - I'm not big on fighting games aside from Smash andd Pokken, and Smash feels more like a platformer to me anyway), but I would be happy for the fans. Plus, they do seem like they could be rather unique.

Nominating Decidueye x5

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Arms Newcomer:

Chance: 70% - The only iffy thing about Arms is its timing, it's difficult to know whether it just about missed the train, and I don't think it's as easy for it to have reserved a spot like Pokémon did last time as it's a brand new franchise. With that said I'd still say it's more likely than not, it'd be an enormous missed opportunity, so it wouldn't surprise me if Nintendo worked really closely with Sakurai to constantly keep him in the know about the new IP they were developing.

Want: 40% - I don't really care much for Arms, it seems alright, but it's not something that catches my interest, I'm just indifferent to it. It does receive a score a bit below 50% simply because stretchy arm characters always have the potential to be super annoying to play against in fighting games.

Rhythm Heaven Newcomer:

Chance: 40% - I'm of the belief that the Chorus Kids were indeed planned for Smash 4, but were cut because of what I can only assume was the 3DS' limitations, like so many other things. I think they might have missed their chance, Rhythm Heaven has stagnated a bit and their surprise factor has also been nullified now, but if they were planned it's still likely that Sakurai will at least take them into consideration again. The series getting a stage and nothing more is the most likely scenario, but if it actually happened it wouldn't surprise me either..

Want: 50% - Again, it's a series I'm completely indifferent to, it could turn out alright or it could be a proper annoyance to play against, so it just gets a flat 50%.

Nominations: Skull Kid x5

 

[NeonBurrito]

ARMS Character

Chance - 99%

It's a hip new IP, that was most certainly at least in development by the time Smash 5 was coming around. It's the same reason I gave the XC2 character a high chance score, promoting newer Nintendo games is what Smash has always been about.

Want - 5%

Bleh. I played the ARMS Testpunch and found it terribly boring. I also struggle to see how they could make a long ranged boxing character very fun, both to play and to play against. I feel like an ARMS character would just be Little Mac but trades a lot of speed and some power for a lot of range. They could probably find some way to make it interesting though.

Rhythm Heaven Character

Chance - 50%

Even after four releases, it still remains a fairly obscure series for Nintendo, but I think each game has sold decently well, and I know that the Chorus Kids were planned to be put in the game at one point, based both on the Gematsu leak and how a Rhythm Heaven icon was found in the games files. I could see it going either way.

Want - 90%

I just want some Smash remixes of Rhythm Heaven tunes. I do love Rhythm Heaven a ton though, and would love to see how a rhythm-based character would play in Smash. We really don't have any sort of rhythm-game representation in Smash (aside from Pac-Man's Taiko taunt, I guess), and I'd love to see some.

 

[Troykv]

ARMS Character:

Chance: 50%

Coin flip, depends a lot of how Sakurai know about the game in 2016 (which is completely possible thanks to game releasing in mid-2017), and if Nintendo wanted Sakurai to help to promote the game.

Want: 60%

The characters looks cool and funny... how is that even possible? xD


Rhythm Heaven Character:

Chance: 40%

A bit like ARMS is a coin flip, but unlike ARMS, this game is actually low priority compared with other franchises and popular characters.

Want: 50%

I don't know anything about these games.

_____________________

Predictions:

Hi I'm Daisy: 14.5%
Paper Mar10: 25.5%

Nominations (it seems Celica needs my help again)

Micaiah (Fire Emblem) x3
Celica (Fire Emblem) x2

 

[Deleted member]

LEGS

Oh, wait...

ARMS Character

Chance: 35%

Just like with Rex, timing might be an issue. Did Sakurai even know about ARMS when finalizing the roster?

Then there's also the question of whether or not Sakurai would want to represent a then-unestablished new IP with a fully playable character, which is unprecedented and would be a gamble. We've had cases like Greninja and Roy before, but those were when Sakurai was actively looking for a new Pokemon and a Marth clone to add, respectively. The CLOSEST we've ever got to the former was the Inkling Mii costume in Smash 4 as an advertisement of sorts for Splatoon 1, which probably didn't take much effort to make.

An ARMS character as DLC wouldn't surprise me, though.

Want: 50%

No strong feelings either way.

Rhythm Heaven Character

Chance: 45%

Leftover data was found in Smash 4 that indicated that a RH character was planned at some point. I suppose Sakurai could return to the idea, but it's not a guarantee.

Want: 50%

Depends on who it is.

Prediction: Daisy - 12.4%; Paper Mario - 22.14%

Nomination: Shulk x5

 

[andimidna]

ARMS character:
This is an easy one
It doesn’t have the success of Splatoon, but I doesn’t need to even remotely
Chance: 85%
Want: 85%
It’s not something I’m crazy about, but it’s totally warranted.

RH character:
I still think the Gematsu leak represented early development plans, and the Choir Boys were scrapped alongside the ICs, but that doesn’t mean they can’t work on the Switch.
Chance is powered by the possibility this isn’t true, they still don’t work, or those old assets aren’t seen as necessary to return to for some reason, despite it being seen as a good idea earlier.
Chance: 75%
Want: 95%
Fun series. A Rhythm based character where every move is kind of like Wii Fit’s Up B or DK’s final smash would be cool

Predictions:
Paper Mario: 29%
Daisy: 16%

X5 Midna

 

[Garteam]

ARMS Character: 75% chance, 80% want
On paper, an ARMS character sounds like a perfect fit for Smash. It's a recent new IP based around combat with unique characters with unique abilities. However, given that the roster was decided in early 2016, there's a chance that Sakurai didn't want an ARMS character because the game wasn't far enough in development to have solid characters or he wanted to see if the series had staying power before putting a character in Smash

That being said though, we don't have a Dhalsim-like character yet and stretchy arms is always a fun power. Plus, I enjoyed ARMS for what it was. I'd like an ARMS character

Rhythm Heaven Character: 30% chance, 50% want
Poor Rhythm Heaven, the only RH game between Smash Wii U and now was Rhythm Heaven Megamix, which was mostly a compilation pack of past mini-games in the series. However, there's some pretty strong evidence in Smash 4's code that hints towards either a planned character or stage from Rhythm Heaven, so maybe it will be reviewed for Smash Switch?

I have never played Rhythm Heaven, so I don't have a strong opinion either way. I'd have to see what the character does before I could really give a strong opinion on them.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Arms

Chance: 75%

If they're not in the base game I'd see them being DLC.

Want: 10%

No personal interest in Arms and I'm not really fond of adding characters in Smash for the sake of promoting a game. (Thanks Corrrin)

Rythm Heaven

Chance: 50%

There was no RH rep last Smash, so I have a feeling this one might also not have one.

Want: 75%

I had fun with Megamix so why not.

Predictions: Daisy 10.32% Paper Mario 38.76%

Nominations: Hades x5