Oooh Boy
Shantae
2% Chance
The literal only things she has going for her are the ballot and Nintendo loyalty. However, let me dissect these two claims a bit.
The ballot is something that we can only have a limited scope view on. All we know is apparently Cloud and Bayonetta did well on it. We can assume K Rool Takamaru and other characters that got Mii Costumes in the later phases could have been seen as consolation prizes. Now Shantae makes sense not to receive them, as she is third party and not having nay company presence in smash. However, it often seems to me that Shantae was more of a bandwagon character. I may offend some people when I say this, but Shantae was the Geno of Smash 4 DLC speculation: A character that got a bandwagon (and minor hatebase) that objectively was not that realistic. Now right now Geno I would say is far more likely due to the fact Sakurai has acknowledged Geno with interviews and Mii costumes. Who knows, in another five or so years maybe Shantae will reach that level of fever pitch that made Geno stand out. Right now though, it seems that her support is just a very vocal minority, even in the vocal minority of Smash speculation.
Next we have Nintendo Loyalty. This is literally the most bull**** prerequisite or quality for a third party I have ever seen. The only strong example of this is Bayonetta due to Nintendo reviving her series. Mega Man and Ryu jumped ship to Sony for a while. Pac Man is known strongly for his arcade history. Sonic is known for his rivalry with Nintendo. Snake and Cloud are known for their roles in gaming as a whole not on Nintendo Consoles. This seems like a straw that is grasped at that could lead Sakurai or whoever to choose her over other candidates. I wholeheartedly subscribe to the theory that in 99.99% of cases, it is gaming impact that matters more than Nintendo loyalty. The only evidence otherwise is the fact that Bayo is in, but ballot.
Even as an indie, which is already a shaky ground to stand on, I feel that Shantae is not that strong. No Shantae game reaches onto the top ten sold indie games for the switch. Ziltch. Shovel Knight, the indie character who has as much, if not far more, support than Shantae, is however. I know some might talk about history or loyalty, but if you want to talk about indies that does not matter. Indie games did not pick up until around 2007 particularly. Shantae, while reviving in this time period, is a distinctly different story from most indie games, with WayForward turning indie. Even as an indie she feels like a weak choice.
Amongst other indie characters, I feel Shantae falls flat. Shovel Knight sells well, is still relevant to this day with just one game, and is popular enough that Nintendo was willing to make Amiibos for it. Hell I would argue that at this point Undertale has a better shot than Shantae. Yes, Undertale, that game with a fanbase that makes Sonic seem tame and is often seen like a cancer by many. But cancer spreads. Undertale spread like wildfire when it came out. It still is on people's minds to this day. I'd argue that Sans is far more likely than Shantae.
20% Want
I am not a big fan of Shantae or her games. I have played each and every Shantae game, and have gotten at least decently far or have beaten each one. I did not find any of them that great. I liked the character design and the charm, but the games themselves felt on the weaker side (IMO PC>HGH>RR>Shantae GBC). I simply put did not have that much fun playing a Shantae game. As a character she has a nice design, and her series' modern artstyle PC onward is pretty great. But I do not have the same kind of joy playing Shantae games. Maybe Ill do another playthrough and IRL stuff made me a bit bitter. IDK.
I think you can tell I would prefer other indies by my rant above. Shovel Knight is my choice for an indie rep personally, his game is a love letter to gaming. Sans is a character a friend of mine wants badly, and it would be fun to play as him. Hell I would want Isaac from the Binding of Isaac due to that game being one of my favorites. I just do not feel strongly about this character. The only reason I did not want to do a double day vs Shovel Knight is because I knew the thread would get too bloody. '
The only reason she gets 20% is she has a cool design, decent moveset potential, and I would like her fans to be happy.
Nominating No Cuts x 5
DAY OVER, Calcs up soon
