Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[MrNantendo]

Ridley

Chance: 50%

Ridley could honestly go either way. We all know Sakurai's stance on Ridley, however, Sakurai has changed his mind in the past and if he can get it to work he would add Ridley in for sure. So it all comes down to design.

Want: 40%

Ridley would be cool as a villain but I am not that bothered. I'm worried he will be too broken like that mod with him.

Nomination: Takamaru x5

 

[Eisendrachen]

Chance: 50%

Ridley will show up, that much is almost guaranteed at this point. But whether he'll be playable is at the whim of a bloody stage magician. It's either "yes" or "no" at this point, with no in-between. You can, however, put good odds that we won't know either way until as close to the release as he can get it.

Want: 100%

The desire for this one to come in playable is inversely proportional to the volume of haters trying to get his fans to shut up about it.

Predictions: Snake 10%. Wasn't a fan in Brawl, but let's be honest, putting the character in is a better means of keeping things civil than teasing only to confirm otherwise.

Nominations: Erdrick, Erdrick, ERDRICK! Also Lizzie and Nokturnus.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

Are we rating Ridley now? Oh boy.

Chance: 50%

It depends on Prime 4. If he's prominent, then he's got a chance. If not, then we can just say he's too big.

Want: 25%

A giant space dinosaur would be pretty cool. Again, there are characters I want more than him, but I'd be a little bit happy to see him in the game.

 

[ssbashworld]

Ridley

Chances: 10%
Do not see Sakurai changing his mind on this, at least not yet, especially with Sylux and Dark Samus seeming to have a following and also being more feasible as fighters with the whole size debate.

Want: 50%
Never really played any metroid much but as I said with K. Rool I am all for more heavy villains. The Ridley mod for Brawl in my opinion showed that size was not a big issue.

Nomination: Celica X5

 

[Kitty-chan]

Ridley

Chance: 25%
Want: 90%
Much as i want him, I don't see much hope that he'll make it in nya.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Ridley

Chances: 15% (100% he's in the game, just 85% chance he's a boss)
Smash Ballot Vs. Sakurai's own personal feelings on the character. This is a character that would be hype for the majority of Smash fans, but Sakurai seems to believe Ridley just won't work.

There's a small chance he'll make it. Alas Ridley may be too big for it.

Want: 60%
I'm more interested in Ridley than K. Rool if only because Metroid probably deserves something new and exciting, and DK has a few other more recent Kong choices to choose from such as Dixie, Cranky and Funky.

Nominations: Concept: New Zelda character(is this allowed?)

 

[Icedragonadam]

Ridley

Chance: 30% Want: 70%

It's high time Metroid got a different character now. Ridley's the most obvious choice, but considering how he's been treated in this series...

Prediction

Snake: 11.56%

Nomination

Lucas x5

 

[Rockaphin]

Ridley:

Chance: 8%
Still don't see it happening.

Want: 50%
Never really got into Metroid, but Ridley has a neat design.

Snake Prediction: 7%

Nominations: Scizor x5

 

[smileMasky]

Ridely

Chance:6%
oh boy does Ridely have an up hill battle going up against him. We do have Mr. Sakurai working on the game and we already know his stance on Ridely.

Want: 40%
I've played a few metriod games in the past but i dont really connect with it as much. as other games. but if he some how gets in i would not really mind.

Nomination: Concept: Indie character x5

 

[DGAMER]

you know what, lets try this game out.

Ridley
Chance-5% (Ridley has already been covered by Sakurai, and the fact of it is, he would require a major rework in order to work. We also have to consider the fact that this smash title might reuse content, and if it does, Pyrosphere and the Ridley boss can show up. I can easily see Ridley as a boss, but not playable.)
Want-30% (While I've never played Metroid, I do recognize it's need for a third rep. Smash also needs more villains. Ridley can cover both. The only thing is I'm not sure if Ridley is the ideal choice for another Metroid Rep. )

 

[jamesster445]

Ridley
25% Chance
Unless Sakurai changes his mind, probably not. But Ninty as a company has been doing a lot of things right by fans recently so who knows.
75% Want
I'm not the biggest Metroid fan but Ridley being in does give the following
-A new villain,
-a new Metroid rep
-And a new heavyweight (maybe)

And I'd rather the next Metroid character be someone who has stuck around for so long.

Nominations- Anna x5

 

[Golden Icarus]

Oh boy have I missed this.

Ridley
Chance: 51%
I’m pretty sure I have absolutely nothing to say that hasn’t already been stated on this thread. Bottom line, it’s a coin flip. I’m throwing in that extra 1% though because of this little hunch I have telling me that this might just be the space pirate’s time to shine. Sakurai only has so many ways left to reject him.
Want: 100%
Tell you the truth, despite supporting Ridley ever since early Smash 4 speculation, I had very very little connection to the character prior to stalking these forums. I’ve never really cared much for Metroid. Played Metroid Prime when I was young, never got far. Tried out Metroid Fusion and Super Metroid. Lost interest pretty quick. Not my style. But the sheer passion that the smash community has for him has always caught my eye. It’s incredible. And I’d be lying if I said it didn’t rub off on me. I am fully convinced that Ridley is the #1 most deserving newcomer for Smash. Without a doubt in my mind. The people want him. I know it, you know it, and Sakurai certainly knows it. And the smash community just deserves it, really.

Snake Prediction: 11.7%

Nominations: Shovel Knight x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Ridley

70% Chance

I hate to go against the grain on this one but I have to say I honestly think ridley is more likely than not. For the record, I take each smash game as a separate scenario from the previous one. Thats why I honestly will rate characters that have been higher than most. But to be honest, Ridley is in a better spot technically than he was in 4. Compared to 4 there are two metroid games in the works with metroid on the public mind. Ridley also has undeniably the most star power of any potential newcomer. The internet would literally break with him announced. I just feel that the potential for Rids is high.

100% Want

Ok Ridley is my most wanted Nintnedo necomer. I wanted him since I first played Metroid Prime. I love dragons, Ridley would just make me smile after the whole history behind the character in speculation. There simply put is no first party character i want more than rids.

Nominating No Cuts x 5

Day Over, Will Be A Bit Late on the Calculations and Updated Noms, Will be posted by ~10:30.

 

[Erimir]

Might be too late. Oh well.

But I'll get it out of the way and say

Want: 100%

Ridley would be one of my top characters to add, at least on the basis of the character - some like Wii Fit Trainer I would never have rated that high, but I thought the move set looked interesting and the idea was a bit crazy and I really enjoyed the addition despite her not being on my list at all. I like the Metroid games a lot and there aren't that many characters to choose from, and Ridley is pretty much the most important character aside from Samus and Mother Brain (who doesn't work as well as a character given that her iconic appearance is "brain in a jar"). Dark Samus is possible, but seems to be done (pending more information about Metroid Prime 4! Not that Ridley won't likely make an appearance in that too). So anyway, Ridley would be the natural next Metroid character. I also would like having more villains.

BUT

Sakurai has expressed on multiple occasions that he doesn't think Ridley would work. They put him in Smash 4 as a stage element because they thought it important that he be massive. I did not enjoy it and did not find it the perfect way to honor him or whatever. I would avoid playing on that stage due to Ridley, which means instead of me enjoying his inclusion, it's actively negative. Maybe it's not for other players who are less competitive/enjoy more randomness.

HOWEVER, if they're not adding many characters, Ridley would be a relatively high bang for the buck addition. Sakurai and Nintendo also know that Ridley is one of the most wanted characters in the US. They have added characters that were previously ruled out, and Sakurai seemed to imply he didn't want to make another Smash but Nintendo is evidently making him do so anyway. So Sakurai's statements don't make him impossible. It might complicate including the Pyrosphere, but honestly, I wouldn't mind if it was cut, or Ridley as a stage element was cut. (They could include a Samus Returns or Metroid Prime 4 stage instead, perhaps...)

Ridley chances: 10%
The chances are stacked against him, but it's undeniable that he would be a high impact, hype-building inclusion. With Samus Returns including him as the final boss and Metroid Prime 4 in development, promoting Metroid wouldn't be a crazy idea...

Nominations:
Simon Belmont x5

 

[CodeBlue_]

So if TCT~Phantom doesn't mind, I made some in depth statistics for Ridley's RTC responses:

Total entries: 80 (1 abstained from "Chances")
Chances
Mean: 18.68%
Standard Deviation: 18.41%
Outliers (beyond +/- 2 SD): 56% or higher

My Thoughts: Ouch. People don't have faith in our purple dragon (or rather Mashed-potato Samurai) returning for the next iteration of Smash Bros. Only two people voted him above 50% chance (PushDustin and TCT~Phantom himself) and over half of RTC voted for Ridley at 10% chance or less. Maybe Dustin's expertise as a writer for SourceGaming gives us a glimmer of hope in a storm of anticipated disappointment and melancholy.

Want
Mean: 67.36%
Standard Deviation: 31.69%
Outliers (beyond +/- 2 SD) : under 6%

My thoughts: Generally what I expected, with about a third of people putting Ridley between 80-100% want. There is an awfully high standard deviation, with an eighth of voters putting not "getting jiggy" with the reptilian space pirate (below 20% want). This is the most likely explanation for Ridley's fairly low average (despite being Smash 4's star child before the Smash Direct in March of 2014). Maybe Ridley's popularity has waned over the years?

Hope you guys liked this analysis, I'm going to do this for Snake tomorrow. Keep in mind, I'm not counting "next day" guesses for my personal sanity. I'm doing a challenging university workload and I have finals in two weeks~

 

[Lukingordex]

Ridley

Chance: 5%
Maybe i'm being too harsh, but considering the circunstances around him i think it's pretty unlikely.

Want: 15%
I don't care for him very much

Nominations: Crash Bandicoot x5

 

[a smart guy]

List of Character Polls:

Spoiler

• Day 1: King K. Rool
• Day 2: Ridley
• Day 3: Snake
• Day 4: Ice Climbers
• Day 5: Wolf
• Day 6: Isaac
• Day 7: Bandana Waddle Dee
• Day 8: Pauline AND Captain Toad
• Day 9: Takamaru
• Day 10: Rayman
• Day 11: Krystal
• Day 12: Rex and Pyra
• Day 13: Squirtle AND Ivysaur
• Day 14: Shantae
• Day 15: Dixie Kong
• Day 16: Concept: Gen VII Pokemon Newcomer
• Day 17: Chrom
• Day 18: Concept: ARMS Newcomer AND Concept: Rhythm Heaven Newcomer
• Day 19: Daisy AND Paper Mario
• Day 20: Pichu AND Young Link
• Day 21: Crash Bandicoot
• Day 22: Lyn

 

[TCT~Phantom]

CodeBlue_ I was literally about to post this stuff lol. If you guys want SD and outliers posted I can do that.

Ridley
18.68% Chance
67.36% Want

The cunning god of death certainly did score higher than expected for many, though that may be due to outliers like Push and myself. His want score however has proven to be quite high, though he still did not have the ability to oust K. Rool from most wanted.

Today please discuss Snake and rate his chances and want. Also please predict the chances for Ice Climbers for Sunday.

Lukingordex your score was not counted due to your lateness, but your noms will be.
a smart guy Thanks for creating the archive. Will tag your post somewhere to make it an archive.
Also I will be updating the noms and will tag whoever did win the ridley prediction.

 

[Xenigma]

No multi-paragraph rant today; will try to save that for special occasions like maybe the Isaac rating in a few days.

Snake - 25%
I'm perplexed by this one. He's a veteran with a unique moveset, which in a perfect world should be all you need to be a strong contender to return. Unfortunately, we live in a world where Kojima hasn't been a part of Konami for years, and the company now has a strange relationship with video games to say the least. While I can't say with any certainty how difficult it would be to license Snake for a return to Smash, the idea that he missed Sm4sh when Nintendo was able to bring Sonic back while adding Pac-Man, Ryu, and freaking Cloud says to me that bringing him back is a non-trivial endeavor at a minimum. There's a decent chance he did well enough on the ballot to convince Nintendo to try to work out a deal with Konami, but of the third party veterans I think it's fair to say his chances are the lowest.
Want - 100%
I really enjoyed him back in Brawl, and while I'm prepared to see him miss out again, it would be difficult to not be at least a little disappointed.

Nominations - Lucina x5

Wolf Predictions - 65% Chance, 75% Want
He did better than this the three times he came up in Sm4sh RTC, but I have to believe he takes a hit after totally missing out that game.

EDIT - Whoops! Here's my Ice Climbers prediction.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

So if TCT~Phantom doesn't mind, I made some in depth statistics for Ridley's RTC responses:

Total entries: 80 (1 abstained from "Chances")
Chances
Mean: 18.68%
Standard Deviation: 18.41%
Outliers (beyond +/- 2 SD): 56% or higher

My Thoughts: Ouch. People don't have faith in our purple dragon (or rather Mashed-potato Samurai) returning for the next iteration of Smash Bros. Only two people voted him above 50% chance (PushDustin and TCT~Phantom himself) and over half of RTC voted for Ridley at 10% chance or less. Maybe Dustin's expertise as a writer for SourceGaming gives us a glimmer of hope in a storm of anticipated disappointment and melancholy.

Want
Mean: 67.36%
Standard Deviation: 31.69%
Outliers (beyond +/- 2 SD) : under 6%

My thoughts: Generally what I expected, with about a third of people putting Ridley between 80-100% want. There is an awfully high standard deviation, with an eighth of voters putting not "getting jiggy" with the reptilian space pirate (below 20% want). This is the most likely explanation for Ridley's fairly low average (despite being Smash 4's star child before the Smash Direct in March of 2014). Maybe Ridley's popularity has waned over the years?

Hope you guys liked this analysis, I'm going to do this for Snake tomorrow. Keep in mind, I'm not counting "next day" guesses for my personal sanity. I'm doing a challenging university workload and I have finals in two weeks~

I'm not Phantom.

But I'd love to see one of these each day.

Dunno how possible that is though.

Could you do one for K.Rool's results yesterday?

 

[Deleted member]

.............

.............

.............

!

"Snake! What happened?! Snake?! SNNAAAAAAAAAAAKKKEEE!!!!!!!!"

Chance: Abstain

Want: 100%

I'd love to have him back, but I'm going to abstain from rating his chances (oh, the irony). I still feel there are unanswered questions regarding Snake's exclusion from Smash 4 and the current state of Konami.

Prediction: Ice Climbers - 91.34%

At least the 3DS's limitations won't be holding them back this time.

Nomination: Monado Boy (Shulk) x5

 

[PeridotGX]

Snake Chance = 25%. He's a veteran, but Konami's in a weird place.

Snake Wants = 10%. I really don't care much about him.

Kamek x4
Marx x 1

 

[TCT~Phantom]

@Zero Soul and AwesomeAussie27 both guessed 18 as the closest guesses. You both get 5 extra nominations today.

 

[NessSaysOkay]

Snake

Want:50%
I couldn't care less, but I have no objections. If he was in I would be hype for a sec just cause lots of people want him, but then would just be like, okay.

Chances:1%
Konami Conundrum. Never say never, but it ain't looking good.
Nomination:New Mother Char x5

 

[Deleted member]

Ridley

Want:50%
I couldn't care less, but I have no objections. If he was in I would be hype for a sec just cause lots of people want him, but then would just be like, okay.

Chances:12%
Even though I think it's a lame excuse, Sakurai said it himself. He's. Too. Big. He's changed his mind in the past but this time seems... different.

Nomination:Ninten

Sorry, but you missed Ridley's day. We're rating Snake today.

 

[AwesomeAussie27]

Snake

Chance: 20%

Konami says hi!

That and the fact that the latest Metal Gear Solid game was failure. But he does have his Smash following going for him.

Want: 100%

I want Smash to be complete with Snake again. Metal Gear Solid is amazing and so was Snake. I would love to blow **** up as him alot.

Prediction for Ice Climbers:

Chance: 88%

Want: 92%

Nominations: Takamaru x 5

Medusa: x5

 

[NessSaysOkay]

Sorry, but you missed Ridley's day. We're rating Snake today.

Sorry, time zones are annoying. Fixed.

 

[Ura]

The Solider of Fortune

Chance: 10%

Konami is Konami and I doubt Sakurai is fond of them after the whole Kojima thing. You can argue that business is business yes but Japanese culture is different in regards to business relationships like that. Plus I think Snake has too much competition from prospective third party newcomers to be included.

Want: 100%

With that being said I would love for Snake to return. He's was one of my favorites in Brawl and was the most stand out character of that game, even more so than Sonic.

Prediction

Ice Climbers: 90%

Nominatiions

Andy X5

 

[jamesster445]

Snake

Chance- 25%
There's obviously Konami being Konami. But if there's one good thing about Metal Gear Survive is that the series is technically relevant (albeit in the worst way). But, Sakurai didn't even consider Snake for Smash 4. Kojima himself stated that Sakurai never contacted him regarding Snake's return for Smash 4. And during the ballot both Kojima and Konami did show support for Snake's return.
I don't think the problem is Konami or Kojima, I think its Sakurai.

Want- 100(000)%
Solid Snake is one of my favorite gaming characters, period. His inclusion in Brawl was truly mind blowing and he was easily one of the best parts of that game.

Also that booty

Nomination- Waluigi x5

 

[slambros]

Snake

Chance: 50%
Either Konami says yes or Konami says no. That is the only factor. And I don't understand Konami enough these days to know whether or not they'd say yes or no...

Want: 100%
I wanna see Snake be played on the competitive level...

Nominations:
Dillon x3
Excitebike x2

 

[Arthreeteseven]

Snake

Chance = 15%

Adding Snake means making a deal with Konami to license Hideo Kojima's character. I don't think Sakurai would do that.

Want = 50%

On one hand I love hime, on the other hand I hate Konami, so 50/50 seems right.

Nominations: Waluigi x5

 

[SSBCandidates]

Snake

Want 100%
I feel Snake deserves to be there as he was the one to open the doors to Mega Man and such! So would love to see him alongside the Blue Bomber!

Chance 8%
Kojima is gone from Konami, and the company seems to mistreat the series now.

Nomination
Sophitia Alexandra x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Noms are updated in the noms thread need to be organized though will organize on snake days end.

 

[NonSpecificGuy]

Oh hell yeah! Today’s my day!

Snake!

Chance: 50%

Honestly, his chances are totally up in the air. We don’t know why he was cut, we don’t know how well he did in the ballot, we don’t know how Nintendo’s relationship with Konami is, we don’t know what Sakurai thinks about the whole deal, basically we don’t know anything. So, who knows?

Want: 100%

If Snake came back... everything else that was added would just be icing on an already delicious cake. This is the one character I feel like I NEED back.

 

[A Distant Demon]

Snake
Chance:7%
im slightly optimisric i guess. I tbink their absence from the last games says enough.

Want:60%
have played almost 0 MSG, but i dont like cuts, and snake is cool

palutena x5

 

[Crap-Zapper]

The Sneaky Stealth Guy, whoooo;

Solid Snake.

Chance: 5%

Konami is Konami, and they don't play by the rules... Since, there are no rules, and even if they were Konami would not give a f***. So, there you have it folks that's a... Wait. It's true, Snake is a veteran, with fans, and Sakurai has stated that every character has their fans from previous games... Still, if Snake was still desireable he would have at least tried to get Snake to return, and if he did try or not, I do not know. Neither Nintendo or Sakurai ever stated anything about Snake's absence in SSB4 (atleast to my knowledge), so the 5 percent is for mercy of his fans.

Want: 10%

I personally really do not care. I did not care in Brawl, and I certantly do not care now. I do think the moveset is interesting however, and I'm more on board on the fact that his fans would be pleased by it.

 

[Deleted member]

Snake:

Chances: 30%

The big problem with Snakes chances is how far Konami has fallen. No more Kojima and ever since he left Konami has made tons of terrible decisions. Plus the most recent Metal Gear game was not well received at all.

That said though Bomberman is also a Konami character and he's got a fairly good shot at being in the next game. Mostly because his big, switch exclusive, revival was a result of collaboration between Konami and Nintendo. Maybe they'll decide to bring back Snake if Bomberman gets in since they'll already have Konami on board. But even with that, Snakes chances are kind of hurting right now.

Desire: 100%

It really does suck that we lost such a fun an unique Brawl Veteran. Especially the one that opened the door for 3rd party characters in Smash. I would love for Snake to come back.

Nominations:


Sheik x1
Toon Link x1
Ganon (not Ganondorf) x1
Tetra x1
Vaati x1

 

[zipzapsparkle]

Snake

Chance: 5%
Want: 50%

He’s a cut veteran but for some reason fan demand doesn’t seem loud enough like the way Roy and Mewtwo’s did. The Ice Climbers and Wolf seem to have taken that. I think his fans should be louder. Another thing is he is a 3rd party and MGS is in a rough spot right now. So in my eyes he seems very unlikely, but I wouldn’t be opposed to him making a return.

Arcade Bunny x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Solid Snake

Chance - 10% - As far as I am aware, Sakurai did not even peruse Snake to be in For. As sad as that might be, I do not think it is in the works. While a vet is a vet, I'm not certain that he has reasonably good chances.

Want - 50% - While I enjoyed his inclusion in Brawl, in the end I can sleep without him. I'm taking a slightly different take on vets as I have now, so I don't particularly care for him.


Predictions

Wolf O'Donnel - 73.49% - Cautious optimism is the word here.


Nominaitons

Anna X5

 

[abrinx77]

Snake:
Chances: 10%: I feel like if Snake we're to return to Smash, he would have done so in Smash 4, whether as a base roster member or as a DLC character. He was passed over both times, which is very telling. Combine that with Konami's bizzare place in gaming these days, and I don't think he's likely to return.

Want 50%: Im pretty indifferent when it comes to Snake. I was never particularly attracted to his play-style, nor am I really a huge fan of the Metal Gear series. However, Snake is a big part of Smash history, being the first ever third party character in the games history. He is also a veteran, and it's always nice to see someone return. Im fine with it either way.

Wolf Chances: 75%
Nominations: Ray (Custom Robo) x 5