Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Pacack]

You said that Pokemon starters are different than the Champions because they're unequally popular and promoted more over the others.

So how does that work with Greninja being chosen in 2012, a full year before X and Y came out?

Greninja was chosen because The Pokemon Company had planned in advance to give the character more noteworthy roles in the future which would boost its popularity and significance to the franchise.

Unlike The Legend of Zelda, Pokemon is constantly receiving new merchandise, new events, and new anime episodes. These are planned well in advance, and new popular characters are often tailored to be popular from the start. Greninja was given a spotlight so that people would be drawn to it, and Smash Bros. was part of this spotlight.

This contrasts with The Legend of Zelda significantly, as the champions have been given equal treatment when it comes to merchandise (amiibo) and DLC except Link, who is the standout and our protagonist. None of these characters has been treated differently because they are understood to be four equally important members of a group.

Pokemon does not do this. The Pokemon Company has promotion down to a science, and they use Smash Bros. as a tool to promote characters in a similar vein to the anime.

When one considers the two franchises in depth, the similarities reveal themselves to be merely superficial.

 

[andimidna]

We’re mentioning Agitha as a possibility? Don’t tempt me or I will nominate her >:.)

Oh and are those top 9 set in stone or subject to change?
I was hoping on getting the FE Summoner out of the way before FE Switch was shown rip

 

[Pacack]

How much do you want to bet that if a Champion is chosen over the others, most of these people giving double zeroes will backpedal and say it was so obvious?

I can assure you that I will continue to stand by my statements, just as I still believe Rosalina was an unpredictable choice (no one knew that Sakurai wanted to make her a puppeteer character.)

I also stand by my previous statements that:

• A historical character should have been widely expected (see: Duck Hunt)
• Pokemon Trainer being cut for solo Charizard should have been predicted. (I predicted this.)
• Chrom being passed over in favor of Robin was an easily predicted move. (I predicted this also.)

And I fully acknowledge that I was mistaken about the following:

• Ridley and K. Rool were not more likely than not.
• Bowser Jr. was a choice I should have taken more seriously.
• An XY Pokemon being added for promotional purposes was something I should have considered.
• Little Mac being considered a Retro by Sakurai makes sense, and I should have thought about that.

The only case I can recall significantly backpedaling was when I reversed my stance on Dark Pit after Blue convinced me of his clone status through the trailer for Palutena. Otherwise, I have either recognized my mistake or held that Sakurai did something unpredictable.

 

[Troykv]

We’re mentioning Agitha as a possibility? Don’t tempt me or I will nominate her >:.)

Oh and are those top 9 set in stone or subject to change?
I was hoping on getting the FE Summoner out of the way before FE Switch was shown rip

Well... It won't be that different unless the Treehouse actually has FE Switch to play.

 

[TheFritzle]

Mipha:
Chance: 10%
I don't believe in the argument that it's either all of the Champions or none of them, I don't think there would be much issue with only choosing one of them. I do believe, however, that there is no standout choice for representation. I'm giving each of the four an equal chance, as I feel they could all get in. Aside from that, Mipha seems like a one-off character that isn't going to come back in a main-line Zelda game. Zelda has had a track record of not adding newcomers that appear in major roles but only appear once. I think the longer Zelda goes without getting a newcomer, the more priority a Zelda newcomer will get. One of the Champions is decently likely, it just comes down to which one would get picked.

Want: 50%
Right down the middle. I don't really care for Zelda games much, so I don't have much preference when it comes to newcomers. There are more Zelda characters that I would like to see instead of Mipha, but there margin is so small I don't care either way.

Steve Prediction:
21.68%

Nominations:
Ray x5

 

[Cosmic77]

I can assure you that I will continue to stand by my statements, just as I still believe Rosalina was an unpredictable choice (no one knew that Sakurai wanted to make her a puppeteer character.)

Actually, back in November 2013 when Miiverse and PotD was still a thing, I predicted that Rosalina would get in and use Luma as a partner. No one took it seriously, myself included. I don't know if was sheer luck or some type of intuition, but it came true. Once I saw that I actually got it right and correctly guessed one of the only characters Gematsu didn't spoil, I realized that it was pretty silly for me to just piggyback off popular opinions. The truth is, Smash fans have a terrible track record with predicting characters, and very rarely do the "literally the only reasonable choice" characters end up getting in Smash.

Smash 4 showed me that Sakurai does a lot more than just looking at popular characters the Smash fanbase spits out at him. He goes to great lengths to accommodate for the newer, first time generation of Smash fans, and that's probably why relevancy played such a large part in the last roster. For that reason, I'm still sticking with the Champions, even if I'm largely in the minority. They definitely aren't as important as Impa or Tingle, but I'm more than willing to bet that Sakurai would assume the Champs would reach out to more people than the latter thanks to BotW introducing so many new faces to the series.


I'm sure people are sick of me ranting on and on about Mipha and the Champions by now, so I'll stop with this: Never go along with the popular opinion. Regardless of what others might say, it's better for you to do your own research and form your own opinion than for you to casually downplay (or overestimate) a character's chances and get upset by a reveal that might have felt so obvious to you in the future.

 

[Roberk]

Mipha

Chance: 1%
Man, we really went through realistic nominations fast, I can't actually remember the last character I gave a double-digit chance to. Maybe it's getting so cynical with speculation and the proximity of E3. Anyways... Mipha will most definitely not make it in as her own playable character unless there is a Sakurai shenanigan/miracle. Even when I started Smash Switch speculation when I was more casual and hopeful, I still thought "Oh the champions would work great for BOTW Link as their abilities for Link in BOTW. I doubt they'd make it in as playable fighters." While the former might not be likely, it and other alternatives are definitely more certain than the champions being playable on their own. The champions are kind of a package deal with their equal importance to BOTW and each other, where they are represented it is all or nothing.

"But muh Pokemon", The Pokemon Company always promoted and treated Pokemon unequally, just look at merchandising and roles in the anime. A big part of BOTW was promoting the champions equally. A thing I advocate in Smash discussion and speculation strongly is that different franchises aren't treated the same. The reasoning for one franchise getting a rep is completely different than another franchise getting a rep. (See: Smash 4 FE oversaturation)

Want: 0%
I was seriously disappointed in BOTW and how it portrayed the champions: the trailer at the January 2017 Switch presentation got me super hyped for the story and characters, but they just fell off in the actual game. They're all dead for a hundred years and only appear in about 5 minutes of screen time? BS. I'd be more hyped for stuff like Sidon or even Kass.

And a water bender with a spear for moveset potential? Azura is literally just this, but better and more. Terrain-altering Dragon Vein, a spear as a weapon not used in Smash, being dancer which is completely new as a concept to Smash, wow thanks Mipha, I kinda want Azura now because she's not you. Hell, Bandana Dee has more moveset potential as a spear user than Mipha. She literally never uses the damn thing. Plus, healing as a major part of a moveset would be quite janky, I don't see that as a positive. It's more of a negative considering how frustrating it would be for Sakurai/the balancing team to balance.

As a character? No way. Just some shy girl that's annoying and whose main appeal to most seems to be lust. She screams "I'm a girl, can I be with you guys? Especially you, player, who is self-inserting themselves into Link. Please just let me stay in the back and heal, I need someone strong to protect me." She is not appealing as an individual to me, especially an individual for a fighting game.

Steve Prediction: 15%

Noms: Fire Emblem Heroes Summoner x5

 

[BandanaWaddleDee]

Mipha
Chance: 0%
I don't see any reason for her to be chosen. I've always though adding the Champions in Smash above other Zelda characters made no sense since they have much less screentime and material to work with. Mipha especially showed nothing besides healing. She never does any fighting in the game, and she's not even a very main character.
Want: 0%
I don't like anything about Mipha. I don't care for her character. Her design is whatever. I don't like her voice. Give me Tetra, or Impa, or anyone else.

Steve Prediction: 8.62%

Nominations
Tetra x3
9-Volt x2

 

[Pacack]

Actually, back in November 2013 when Miiverse and PotD was still a thing, I predicted that Rosalina would get in and use Luma as a partner. No one took it seriously, myself included. I don't know if was sheer luck or some type of intuition, but it came true. Once I saw that I actually got it right and correctly guessed one of the only characters Gematsu didn't spoil, I realized that it was pretty silly for me to just piggyback off popular opinions. The truth is, Smash fans have a terrible track record with predicting characters, and very rarely do the "literally the only reasonable choice" characters end up getting in Smash.

Smash 4 showed me that Sakurai does a lot more than just looking at popular characters the Smash fanbase spits out at him. He goes to great lengths to accommodate for the newer, first time generation of Smash fans, and that's probably why relevancy played such a large part in the last roster. For that reason, I'm still sticking with the Champions, even if I'm largely in the minority. They definitely aren't as important as Impa or Tingle, but I'm more than willing to bet that Sakurai would assume the Champs would reach out to more people than the latter thanks to BotW introducing so many new faces to the series.


I'm sure people are sick of me ranting on and on about Mipha and the Champions by now, so I'll stop with this: Never go along with the popular opinion. Regardless of what others might say, it's better for you to do your own research and form your own opinion than for you to casually downplay (or overestimate) a character's chances and get upset by a reveal that might have felt so obvious to you in the future.

I congratulate you for that prediction. It was a difficult one. Further, I agree with the sentiment of your post generally. We should expect choices that are contrary to the popular opinion.

However, none of that is a rebuttal. I have no qualms with you supporting Mipha and arguing her case.

However, I think your 80% chance is foolish. There are several possible off-the-wall choices for a Zelda newcomer, and putting any choice that high shows a dismissal of the other choices at hand. Ganon is a fantastic oddball choice, for example, as he was the original villain of the series and has made appearances as recently as ALBW. I wouldn't dismiss Midna, Skull Kid, or Tetra either, as each of them had remakes to their name and have been popular requests for some time. Impa is a more popular choice, but she also has merits that I think shouldn't be overlooked. Hell, even characters like Beedle have some merit, as he's appeared in multiple titles and would represent the kookier side of Zelda.

I don't even know if I'm 80% sure that the Zelda series will get a newcomer at all. Even if you're sure that we're getting a Zelda character, a combined 20% chance to distribute between every other possible Zelda newcomer is unreasonable. If you were even like 20% sure of Mipha, I wouldn't be so bothered by your rating. But the 80% just seems to be dismissive of other possibilities to me.

That said, I'll be changing my rating to reflect that I don't think she's completely impossible. I think a 5% chance for getting a champion is fair, and I'd say Mipha is more likely than Urbosa or Daruk, so expect something like this from me:

Mipha - 2%
Revali - 1.5%
Daruk - 1%
Urbosa - .5%

 

[NintenRob]

I might throw in some joke characters for the final countdown so that things are dumb. Like Chancellor Cole, Yarne Owain tag team, and Brash the Bear.

Baby Mario, please Baby Mario

 

[Pacack]

Baby Mario, please Baby Mario

I see your Baby Mario and raise you a Baby Daisy.

 

[Llort A. Ton]

Is Mipha's Grace ready for Smash??

Chance- 30%
Well... maybe. But probably not. BOTW is Zelda's biggest shake up since OoT, and Nintendo knew this years before it came out. Sakurai was likely well aware of this game and its characters, but recently Zelda games usually get a stage and a few trophies, thats about it. That said, BOTW is huge enough to get more than that, but Sakurai is known to do his own thing. Also, there are 3 other champions, Kohga, Paya, Impa, Sidon, Ganon, Beedle and even more BOTW characters that could fill Miphas's role.

Want- 40%
BOTW was the first game in years that brought me that feel of awe and hours of pure fun. This isn't even coming from a Zelda super fan, I got it around late July and didn't stop playing for weeks. I know im gushing more about the game and not the character, but BOTW is such a special game to me, really made me feel like a little kid again. That said, Mipha would be cool, I guess, but I'd go Daruk if I could choose, since I've always humored the idea of a playable Goron in Smash Bros. Still, not against the idea.

Stevie- 27.22%

Thwomp X 5

 

[colder_than_ice]

Mipha
Chance: 7% - Unfortunately, the four champions are likely doomed to be one-shot characters never to appear in another Zelda title. That being said, Nintendo has been promoting them pretty hard and Mipha does appear to be the most popular of the four. I'd say she has at least a decent shot.
Want: 50%

Steve prediction: 18%

Nominations: Eevee x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

OK I am ending the day now. You have 30 minutes to get your scores in.

 

[BluePikmin11]

I'm sure people are sick of me ranting on and on about Mipha and the Champions by now, so I'll stop with this: Never go along with the popular opinion. Regardless of what others might say, it's better for you to do your own research and form your own opinion than for you to casually downplay (or overestimate) a character's chances and get upset by a reveal that might have felt so obvious to you in the future.

I might disagree with your perspective on Mipha, but I wholeheartedly agree with this. Stick to your opinion and do not let others tempt you and change your mind.

 

[DaUsername]

Dang it I'm late.
I'm still allowed to predict and nominate, right? I'm gonna do that if it's okay.
Steve prediction: 11%
Noms: Dr. Mario x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Urban Champion
2.92% Chance
10.67% Want

Let it be known that Smashboards slightly prefers Urban Champion to an actual convicted sex offender.

Mipha
12.02% Chance
31.89% Want

Well, seems the relevancy argument does not really apply to Zelda. She hovers around the same scores as Midna and Skull Kid. However the Zora is not preferred to them. Several people (myself included) rated her with a 0.

Ze Diglett gets noms for Urban Champ, skylanders fan gets noms for Mipha.

Today we got Steve from a game called Minecraft. Maybe you heard of it. Rate him in chance and want. Also predict Excitebiker and Pyra/Mythra scores.

 

[Aetheri]

Steve

Chance: 15%
A possible sleeper pick. Minecraft has been popping up a lot on Nintendo consoles and it seems that Microsoft has been active with collaborating with Nintendo on this front. When it comes to indie games, Minecraft is a pretty damn big deal, to the point where it isn't even considered an indie anymore and having a huge player base.

Problem is, Minecraft itself is a big deal whereas Steve himself is just sort of that character that you play the game as. He doesn't have much of a personailty to go off of, plus a pretty boring design could make him a lot less appealing compared characters like Banjo & Kazooie who are much more popular amoung the Smash fanbase.

Want: 0%
Yeah, no thanks. Never really cared for Minecraft and while I'm open to having Minecraft content in Smash, I'd prefer our playable fighters come from elsewhere.

 

[Opossum]

Steve

Chance: 25%
Very high by my standards for third parties, especially one owned by Microsoft. And it's because despite the Microsoft ownership, Minecraft has been everywhere. And Minecraft for Switch topped Japanese sales charts. People love the gsme the world over.

"But they only care about the game, not Steve!"

Not true. Otherwise there wouldn't be tons of merchandise featuring him, including action figures and mass produced Halloween costumes. The character himself is popular.

"But the cringy fanbase!"

Lol you're part of the Smash fanbase. At least there's not news pieces about Minecraft fans committing sexual assault. Self-awareness, folks.


Want: 60%
Partly because the series is massively popular and iconic, so I think it should eventually get roster content. Partly because, like Isabelle, Steve can pull off a terraforming moveset (based on crafting). Partly because of the schadenfreude of it all, as Steve doesn't bother me in the slightest. Forty percent was docked because I've never played Minecraft.

Predicting a 17 for Excitebiker, and 2.1 for Rexless Pythra.
Nominating K. Rool x5

 

[NintenRob]

Steve
Chance 10%
Minecraft is incredibly big game, but I don't consider Steve that big a character, or a character at all. He's the definition of a blank slate. Herobrine is probably more iconic and memorable than him. Minecraft is better represented with a stage
Want 34%
However if he got in, that means we get that stage anyway, and I'd love a Minecraft stage, so much potential and I adore that world and its simplistic world. I'd gladly have Steve on the roster for that stage.

Prediction
Excitebiker 27%
Pyra/Mythra 12%

Nominate Parabo and Satebo x5

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Steve want: 0% (1-10*)

Steve digging around and crafting isn't compelling to me as a moveset. I think Minecraft would be better represented by a stage and items.

Nominations:

Neku x5

* Indicates percentage penalty for potentially taking a slot from most wanted characters

 

[Troykv]

Urban Champion
2.92% Chance
10.67% Want

Let it be known that Smashboards slightly prefers Urban Champion to an actual convicted sex offender.

Mipha
12.02% Chance
31.89% Want

Well, seems the relevancy argument does not really apply to Zelda. She hovers around the same scores as Midna and Skull Kid. However the Zora is not preferred to them. Several people (myself included) rated her with a 0.

Ze Diglett gets noms for Urban Champ, skylanders fan gets noms for Mipha.

Today we got Steve from a game called Minecraft. Maybe you heard of it. Rate him in chance and want. Also predict Excitebiker and Pyra/Mythra scores.

Freaking Urban Champion, got 2.92% Chance... Why? Where this additional .24% comes from? (?)

Steve?

Well... this is one that I don't actually want to talk about because I think this character need extensive explanations to talk about his possibilities... But Minecraft is definitely a franchise that will be considered in some way.

Chance and Want: Abstain

This whole franchise's representaiton in Smash.... I'm not even sure what to say about this.

_____________________________________

Predictions:

Excitebiker: 16.5%
Pyra/Mythra (the without Rex is important): 4.6% Maybe this ended up being lower than I expected with my rating

Nominations:

Neptune (Neptunia/Neptune Series) x5

 

[NeonBurrito]

Steve

Chance - 40%

Steve is one of those characters I feel like people are really sleeping on, simply because they don't like the idea of him in Smash.

Minecraft is a huge series with a ton of worldwide appeal, clocking in at a whopping total of 144 million sales. He's had multiple games released on Nintendo platforms, receives a ton of attention in Japan, which is something nearly every western 3rd party character can't claim, and has even received attention from Sakurai himself, to the point where he actually bought the game twice, once on the Nintendo Switch, and another time on an unspecified console, due to how interesting he found the game to be:

I don’t usually go back to games after I’ve completed them, but when something piques my interest, it can’t be helped. Wait a second. This time I’m going to be playing on the Nintendo Switch, so I’ll be starting with a fresh slate, without my previous save data.
Source

The character of Steve himself is also no slouch. He's constantly featured across merchandising for the franchise, such as plush dolls, figurines, action figures, LEGO, you name it. Plus in Japan, he seems to be a relatively popular character request for a newcomer this time around, which once again, is something nearly unheard of for western 3rd parties.

Really, I'd say the only things holding him back is how he's a Microsoft owned character and how he isn't as iconic as the game itself or something like a Creeper. The first doesn't seem to be much of a problem considering both Microsoft's statements on Smash Bros., and the fact that the Wii U, Nintendo 3DS, and Switch versions of Minecraft exist in the first place, but you never know. The second could very well be a potential dealbreaker, but I'm not Sakurai. Steve is still very prominently featured across merchandising, but alas.

He's been a prominent and successful figure on Nintendo consoles, especially within Japan, is an extremely iconic character across the globe, and has received a good amount of attention from Sakurai himself. People are sleeping on him hardcore, simply because they don't want him in Smash.

Want - 0%

I'd really rather not have a Minecraft character in Smash. If we're getting a Microsoft character, I'd rather have the Bear and the Bird.

Nominations:
[Veteran] Corrin x5

Lol you're part of the Smash fanbase. At least there's not news pieces about Minecraft fans committing sexual assault. Self-awareness, folks.

Spoiler: Off Topic, Not Really Smash Related

I agree with your general point about the Smash fanbase being an absolute turd, but:
Minecraft paedophile Adam Isaac groomed boys online
YouTuber Arrested For Allegedly Intending To Have Sexual Relations With Minor
YouTube Personalities Use 'Minecraft' to Prey on Underage Fans
Notch Tweets Rage Over Minecraft Party Sexual Assault
Schoolboy, six, receives series of sexual messages from online predator while playing Minecraft on his Xbox
Acting like Minecraft hasn't brought sexual assault about is inaccurate. Just because it doesn't often happen in person, doesn't mean it can't happen online.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Blockhead

Chance: 15%
Want: 0%

If there's any game that can be described as a phenomenon, it's this one.

Minecraft may have started out indie, but it's really one of the biggest games nowadays, and has filled YouTube with countless hours of Let's Play videos from younger kids trying to get rich and famous. Minecraft merchandise can be found in every toy store, and everyone and their dog knows about the game in general. It'd be tough to find a game that is more well-known than this nowadays.

But Steve?

The player character of Minecraft is little more than an avatar, and is also fully customizable. He's best known for existing and walking around, and using his pickaxe to dig stuff up. And that's about it. Most of the popularity of Minecraft is based on what can be done in game, from building to destroying, not necessarily on the playable character.

Moveset potential may exist - Sakurai is definitely creative enough, and he does use a pickaxe and other weapons in game - but Steve's character is specifically designed as a blank slate and as such he has little personality to go off of. He'd basically be another Villager - a generic avatar who can pull anything out of hammerspace, but be nothing else.

Minecraft also has a decent anti faction to have popped up simply because the generic Minecraft player tends young and self-important. It definitely suffers from cries of "that's for babies" from the more edgy gamers who dislike the game for not being Call of Duty.

Personally, I'm not a fan of Steve as a playable character. I dislike the artstyle of Minecraft, and Villager never interested me as a blank slate that much, which can also be ascribed to Steve. However, that's not to say I don't think Minecraft shouldn't be repped at all - If Smash wants to be a celebration of groundbreaking third parties in addition to Nintendo, Minecraft no doubt has a place. I'd just prefer it not to be a playable character.

Considering that Minecraft is based around exploration and building, a Minecraft stage could be incredibly cool. I could also see using Creepers as enemies on that stage or in a new SmashRun mode. Not every bit of representation needs to be with a playable character.

Prediction for Excitebiker: 7.4%
Prediction for more Xenos: 24.6%
Nom: Transformations x5

 

[Opossum]

Steve

Chance - 40%

Steve is one of those characters I feel like people are really sleeping on, simply because they don't like the idea of him in Smash.

Minecraft is a huge series with a ton of worldwide appeal, clocking in at a whopping total of 144 million sales. He's had multiple games released on Nintendo platforms, receives a ton of attention in Japan, which is something nearly every western 3rd party character can't claim, and has even received attention from Sakurai himself, to the point where he actually bought the game twice, once on the Nintendo Switch, and another time on an unspecified console, due to how interesting he found the game to be:

The character of Steve himself is also no slouch. He's constantly featured across merchandising for the franchise, such as plush dolls, figurines, action figures, LEGO, you name it. Plus in Japan, he seems to be a relatively popular character request for a newcomer this time around, which once again, is something nearly unheard of for western 3rd parties.

Really, I'd say the only things holding him back is how he's a Microsoft owned character and how he isn't as iconic as the game itself or something like a Creeper. The first doesn't seem to be much of a problem considering both Microsoft's statements on Smash Bros., and the fact that the Wii U, Nintendo 3DS, and Switch versions of Minecraft exist in the first place, but you never know. The second could very well be a potential dealbreaker, but I'm not Sakurai. Steve is still very prominently featured across merchandising, but alas.

He's been a prominent and successful figure on Nintendo consoles, especially within Japan, is an extremely iconic character across the globe, and has received a good amount of attention from Sakurai himself. People are sleeping on him hardcore, simply because they don't want him in Smash.

Want - 0%

I'd really rather not have a Minecraft character in Smash. If we're getting a Microsoft character, I'd rather have the Bear and the Bird.

Nominations:
[Veteran] Corrin x5

Spoiler: Off Topic, Not Really Smash Related

I agree with your general point about the Smash fanbase being an absolute turd, but:
Minecraft paedophile Adam Isaac groomed boys online
YouTuber Arrested For Allegedly Intending To Have Sexual Relations With Minor
YouTube Personalities Use 'Minecraft' to Prey on Underage Fans
Notch Tweets Rage Over Minecraft Party Sexual Assault
Schoolboy, six, receives series of sexual messages from online predator while playing Minecraft on his Xbox
Acting like Minecraft hasn't brought sexual assault about is inaccurate. Just because it doesn't often happen in person, doesn't mean it can't happen online.

Spoiler

Oh damn, I hadn't heard about any of that. I guess that's an inherent bias on my part considering I'm a Smash fan, so I saw that news more regularly.

Thanks for pointing that out. Yikes though.

 

[Pacack]

Steve:

Chance: 15%
The protagonist of the second best selling game of all time. He has appeared on Nintendo's last three consoles and is loved by the young demographic. He's popular, he's iconic, and he's got plenty to work with.

However, he's also a third party, which I inherently give low scores. Further, he's owned by Microsoft, so his best shot at getting in is that Sakurai wants not only Steve, but also Banjo and Kazooie. That's an interesting proposition, but definitely an oddball of one. He also might suffer from looking significantly out-of-place alongside Smash characters, but I suppose that could be worked around.

The only reason I rate him as low as I do is because there are a lot of third parties competing for consideration. When it comes to third parties, my list without DLC is approximately this:

Rayman - 66.67% (2/3)
Bomberman - 40% (2/5)
Simon Belmont - 20% (1/5)
Sora - 20% (1/5)
Tails - 15% (1/5)
Steve - 15% (3/20)
Snake - 10% (1/10)
Dr. Eggman - 10% (1/10)
Phoenix Wright - 7.5% (3/40)
Shovel Knight - 7.5% (3/40)
Shantae - 6% (3/50)
Amaterasu - 5% (1/20)
Crash - 5% (1/20)
Professor Layton - 4% (2/50)
Spyro - 3.5% (7/200)
Slime - 3% (3/100)

Note that I used a random number generator and ran each of these and ended up with three newcomers: Rayman, Sora, and Dr. Eggman. Even with the majority of these scores happening less than 50% of the time, I got three newcomers. That's how this probability works itself out when I don't make the scores depend on one-another. I'm unlikely to get only one third party, it's highly likely for me to get 2 or 3, and it's possible, albeit unlikely, to get more.

(Note that this list would look very different if I included DLC in my scores.)

Want: Abstain
I would need to see how the character looks when implemented.

Predictions:
Excite Biker - 14.56%
Rexless Pyra/Mythra - 8.76%

Nominations:
Historical Character x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Steve

Chance: 30%

With Minecraft being the seond most succesfull game of all time and Sakurai having played the game, I can defintely see him atleast being considered.

A big thing holding him back is that compared to the Smash Bros cast he'd look very different in a not so good way. In Minecraft he has little animations. When he moves in Minecraft his limbs just kinda swing around like a pendulum and I also don't think he has a jumping animation, his body just kinda gets pulled upwards for a sec. In Smash he'd look janky and stiff, without the charm like
.

I recall Sakurai saying in order for a character to become a fighter he has to invision them ''dancing around in his head.'' I don't know if that could happen for Steve.

Oh yeah, and he's from a western company, tho that might actually be the minor issue in this case.

Want: 1%

Never played Minecraft and even if I did I still would have no interest in him. He has no personallity, thoughts of his own or even any facial animations. He is less of a ''character'' and more of a ''thing you controll.'' I'm also not a fan of how out of place he could look in Smash.

Excitebiker: 9.64%
Anime waifus by themselves: 2.29%

Nominations: Leon Kennedy x5

 

[Runic_SSB]

Steve

Chance: 0%
Every third-party franchise/company has some sort of connection with Nintendo. Sega and Nintendo's rivalry was legendary, Mega Man and Final Fantasy have many games released on Nintendo consoles, Smash Bros. wouldn't even exist without Street Fighter, Konami has a long and storied relationship with Nintendo, Namco has released over 100 games on Nintendo consoles and developed quite a few games for Nintendo properties (including, obviously, Smash 4), and even Bayonetta has some sort of exclusivity deal with Nintendo (though she didn't need it to get in because of the ballot). What is Steve's connection to Nintendo? His game got ported to the Wii U and Switch years after every other console already got it. That's it. Also, if Steve was going to be picked for Smash, it would've been in Smash 4 when the Wii U port was coming out. There's absolutely no reason to even entertain the thought. Steve Eggman from Sonic Boom has a better chance.

Want: 0%
I never liked Minecraft. Not because of its "cringy" fanbase (they're literally just children having fun, it's not like they're grown men in their 30's going out of their way to be douchebags ), but because 1. it's just not my thing and 2. voxels make me want to vomit. Plus I'd be reeeeeally pissed if the dude from Minecraft gets in over Sora or Travis.

Excitebiker prediction: 10%
Pyra/Mythra prediction: 10%

Nominations:
Viewtiful Joe x5

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Steve
Chance: 35% - His game has the legendary status needed for a Smash third party, he has appeared on Nintendo, and he'd sell the game like hotcakes. However he is still the property of a direct console competitor and a Western third party, so negotiations might be difficult.
Want: 0% - I despise Minecraft. It's boring, Steve is bland, and I think Banjo & Kazooie deserve a spot as Microsoft reps before him. But they aren't relevant and he is. I'd also like to see other third parties more than Banjo and Kazooie as well, so he's long down the list.

Prediction: Excitebiker
Chance: 16.32%
Want: 43.27%

Prediction: Pyra/Mythra
Chance: 8.93% (Should be 0%)
Want: 31.11%

Nominations:
Sakura Shinguji x5

ribbit

 

[Quetzal77]

Steve
Chance: 50%
He's gained iconic status imo, where casual audiences know him by sight if not by name. Minecraft is on Nintendo consoles and I believe there was talk of this possibility.

Want: 0%
It would rub me the wrong way despite liking Minecraft for what it is. I'd rather have some selfish picks for third parties.

Excitebiker: 18.5%
Pyra/Mythra: surprised by the really low scores, wonder if it's due to people not being familiar with the game or disliking the characters, but... based on what I'm seeing, 12.33%

Nominations: Neku x5

 

[Runic_SSB]

Let it be known that Smashboards slightly prefers Urban Champion to an actual convicted sex offender.

Is that why Blue Bowser wasn't in Mario All-Stars?

 

[WaddleMatt]

Steve:

Chance: 15%
He represents one of the most important games in hisotry and Minecraft is popular in Japan and the West and has sold well on Nintendo consoles. However I think there is other choices which Sakurai would consider before him.

Want: 30%
I'm actually intrigued to what he could provide with a moveset with the amount of items in the game.

Predictions: Excitebiker - 15%

Nominations: Monster Hunter x5

 

[Llort A. Ton]

Steve

Chance- 45%
Yeah, I went there. Minecraft is the 2nd best selling game ever, on 3 Nintendo systems, and yeah, not all 144million people that bought the game are gonna name Steve, but theyre gonna recognize him. Hes on the cover of the game, has toys and merch everywhere, and has a simple design. He is an icon, for better or worse. It also helps a LOT that MC is insanley popular in Japan, and requests for Steve there are apparently frequent (BluePikmin11 showed some japanese Smash speculation videos a while back in the general forum for discussion purpouses and 3 of them mentioned Steve. Hes got quite the spotlight there, it seems). Everyone wants to use the arguement that "such and such will never be in Smash, the game is meant for children and children wont recognize that character", but when the prospect of Minecraft shows up, a game that has been HUGE with children for about a decade, people start shooting it down. I dont actually think Microsoft would prove an issue either, Nintendo would probably apporach them like any other 3rd party company for a character inclusion.

Far from a lock, but keep an eye on Steve. He may just break the internet soon.

Want- 55%
I was really into Mine Craft in its prime, and I have a lot of fond memories of playing with my friends on PC and Xbox 360. I dont know why, but I got back into Mine Craft again recently, specifically Tekkit a couple months back. I also think he could have a fun moveset.

However, there are other MicroSoft characters Id prefer. We have had multiple characters from the same 3rd party before, so as long as Steve doesnt lock out the Bear, the Bird... or the Chief, Ill be happy to see Steve.

Excite Biker- 17.35%
Pyra/Mythra- 32.93%

Scorpion X 4
Thwomp X 1

 

[skylanders fan]

Cool I get extra nominations so lets go with
10x Labo Guy

Steve
chance
He fits the bill with iconic he represents modern gaming and has been on nintendo before. He also would provide a new moveset to Smash but he is a Microsofr charcter however that did not stop Minecraft from coming before on the switch.
35%

Want
Yeah not the biggest fan of minecraft and lacks the legacy of older 3rd parties. 3rd parties should be charcters that have staded the test of time or have a really strong connection to nintendo. There are many other I would want besides him in Smash. Not to mention if we are talking to Microsoft we need to have others (at least I want others more)
0%

predicting
excitbike at 8%
pyra/mythra at 9%

 

[Pacack]

I was expecting people to heavily underrate Steve, but everyone's looking a lot more confident in him than I thought.

In fact, my rating falls on the lower end of scores despite my defenses of Steve in the past. It's an interesting thing to see.

 

[Deleted member]

Steve

Chance: 30%
Want: abstain

Noms:
Concept: Female announcer x5

Excitebiker prediction: 12.53%
Pyra/Mythra prediction: 57.21%

 

[AlphaSSB]

Steve

Chance: 15% - Minecraft is one of the single best selling games of all time, and Steve is highly recognizable, which would attract new players to Smash and/or the the Switch as a whole. Plus, Minecraft is on Switch, with a Super Mario mash-up pack. Not to mention that cross-platform play is on the way. I've no doubt that if Sakurai wanted Minecraft, then Microsoft would comply. It's just a matter of if Sakurai would actually go for Steve in the first place or not.

Want: 0% - Not a fan of adding more 3rd Parties to the roster.

Nominations: Slippy Toad x5

 

[Ze Diglett]

my name steve

Chance: 10%
Yeah, most people in this thread seem to get the idea. Be it for the base roster or DLC, Steve is not a candidate to be slept on. He's the mascot of the second best-selling game of all time (albeit one that's curently going down like the Hindenburg) and Sakurai has expressed quite a bit of interest in Minecraft in the past. He also has obvious moveset potential out the blockhole with the sheer amount of items the player can wield in Minecraft. However, I have to dock him some points for being a Microsoft character (and therefore competing with Banjo & Kazooie), missing the boat in Smash 4 when Minecraft was at its most popular, which may indicate that Sakurai doesn't intend to add him at all, and the possibility that Sakurai may consider the potential backlash and go against the idea, considering how overwhelmingly unpopular a choice he seems to be, at least among the non-casual crowd.

Want: 1%
And I agree with that sentiment completely. Sorry, but I just don't want Steve to get in Smash; he'd probably stick out like a sore thumb considering how bare-bones Minecraft's visual style is, I don't want him getting in before a certain Microsoft-owned bear and bird who originated on a Nintendo console rather than getting ported to it years after every other console got them, and frankly, I don't want Minecraft's fanbase of primarily twelvies infesting the Smash scene just for Steve. The day Steve gets in is the day Smash becomes more about marketing than producing a game with love and care put into it that people will actually enjoy. He gets a pity % from me for entertaining the idea of an interesting, unique moveset, but the sentiment of Steve being added in bothers me too much to get behind the idea.

Neat, I won something. Let's put those noms to good use, then...
Nominating Gooey x5
Nominating Tingle x5

Excitebiker Prediction: 8.85%. Simply put, what would he do...?
...oh, double day tomorrow, huh? Alright, let's make this interesting...
Pyra/Mythra Prediction: 4.90%. Why just these two and not Rex...?

 

[Deleted member]

Steve
Chance and want 50%
I am completely neutral to the idea of steve to be in the game. I dont hate the idea and i do see how it makes sense for him to be in the game. However, nothing shows that he has to be in the game, or is fitting sakurais requiement.
Excitebike- 7%
Pyra/Mythra- 20%

Noms- Sable prince x 2
Tora and Poppi x 3

 

[BluePikmin11]

With Minecraft, it has been a massive success. Recently, it was announced that the game had sold over 144 million copies total, making the game the second best selling video game of all time. That is a massive accomplishment, especially when considering Minecraft had surpassed sales for even Nintendo’s best selling games like Super Mario Bros/Wii Sports. With several kids going crazy over Minecraft, it would not surprise me at all if Steve was an insanely voted third-party, being enough in numbers to catch Sakurai’s attention for consideration.

Like with Sora & Disney, it does seem to most people that negotiating a third party with a rival video-game company like Microsoft would be impossible. But that is not the case here. While Microsoft did acquire the rights, the earlier released PS3 version of Minecraft in 2013 was not taken down. In fact, right after the announcement, versions for the PS Vita/PS4 were released right after. With Microsoft being open to the idea of Minecraft being multi-platform, this eventually lead to the Wii U version of the game that came out on December 17th, 2015. This is when the relationship of Mojang/Nintendo had begun to sprout.

The release date came before the roster project plan began for Smash Switch in 2016, which gives ample enough time and a notable opening for Sakurai to take the opportunity to negotiate Steve for Smash. Since Mojang does not have its own division, Microsoft’s Japanese division in Tokyo would be the next nearby place to handle a huge deal. So… why would Sakurai willingly choose Steve for this Smash? Like with Sora, the element of surprise would play a massive, big factor. Not only that, the move-set potential Steve has with a play-style based on Minecraft’s game design of surviving with crafted tools/blocks might have served as an inspiration for Sakurai to add him.

On top of that factor, Minecraft’s popularity in Japan is massive, going as far as famous Japanese YouTubers regularly playing it for subscribers and Minecraft selling greatly on Playstation Vita and Wii U. With the game having a notable Japanese following, unlike many other Western third-party franchises, Steve is one choice Sakurai would not have to worry about, since Minecraft has world-worldwide appeal, with Steve sharing an instant recognizability that a majority of younger gamers will instantly recognize to buy Smash Switch for.

The only “difficult” matter would be translating Steve into Smash smoothly. Minecraft is known to have basic and stiff animations in gameplay. Implementing this truly in Smash might make Steve stand out too much and look awkward on the surface for most players. Would it be better to have Steve smoothly animated? Would it be better to make Steve move truly like in-game? Whichever solution Sakurai will use, I feel that he would not mind either option because whether he chooses stiff or smooth animation, it would still make Steve a distinct addition in Smash. It would be weird seeing Steve with new animations, but I see it as something Sakurai will conclude as something Smash players will quickly get used to.

With all of the pros towards adding a Minecraft character in Smash, it could point to him becoming a fighter. Researching Steve extensively, I have quickly warmed up to the idea of him being playable, especially when imagining the fun moments that could come from his crafting stage-control play-style. I really hope Vergeben’s source on Minecraft representation in Smash Bros is real. Having Steve alongside music, stages, and a character would be super awesome!

x5 Balloon Fighter