Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Sid-cada]

Incineroar

Chance - 32.5% - At this point we really are going into the dark. We have a potential, so far semi-credible leak stating that the three most likely competitors are not in. I'm not 100% on the rumor now, but right now I'm taking it as a roughly 50% possibility. He's the clear frontrunner asuming it is true, due to being promoted and a starter and such, but we can't say that for certain if he would be chosen. It is mostly dependent on if Sakurai sees the appeal of a Fire wrestler, and that another darkhourse canidate doesn't overshadow him.

Want - 20% - I don't think a wrestler is a good fit for Smash Bros. Unless you're willing to give him grabs as tilts, aireals, and smashes, he probably won't contribute anything interesting to the game.


Predicitions

Primarina - 17.24% - Doing these back to back should probe interesting...


Nominations

Nihilego X Max

 

[Mario & Sonic Guy]

Incineroar
Want: 50%
Chance: 50%

While not exactly on my most wanted list, Incineroar probably has a far better chance of making the cut than most of the other so-called 7th generation contenders. And it's basically our best answer to Street Fighter's Zangief.

 

[PapillonXtreme]

Incineroar

Chance: 35%
Normally, I don't trust these Vergeben leak, but Incineroar might have a chance here if Decidueye is not their Gen 7 Rep. Well, either him, Mimikyu or Lycanroc, but I still believe Incineroar would be their second choice.

Want: 90%
When I play Pokemon Sun and Moon for the first time, I always pick Litten as my starter and since then, I'm grown attached to his evolved form, Incineroar. I think having a wrestler in Smash wouldn't be too bad, as long as they give him a proper moveset.

Nominations:
Saber (Fate/stay night) x5

 

[Wyoming]

Incineroar stands a bigger chance now compared to pre-reveal. The project plan was finalized in late 2015/early 2016, with the fire cat having one of the more appealing concept arts for a fighter. His competition seems to be Decidueye and Mimikyu at the moment, who benefited from having those detailed concepts alongside him.

I could see a wrestler appealing more to Sakurai than an archer and a ghost that summons large hands. Both are technically already covered in other movesets, but a wrestler archetype the closest we have is Bowser who isn't that kind of fighter to the fullest extent.

Of course the other Pokemon have their merits. Mimikyu is heavily advertised and has a prominent role in most Pokemon media, and the owl is a playable fighter in Pokken.

Nominating Dixie Kong & Kiddy Kong x5

 

[DivineWrath45]

Incineroar

Chance: 25%
While I don't trust any leaks at all, even if it's from Vergeben, I think Incineroar might have a better chance than Decidueye, to be honest. Smash could really use a grappler-type character and Incineroar is perfect for that position.

Want: 80%
I may not be a fan of Incineroar, but I like his overall design. I could see him as a heavy grappler-type character and his signature move, Darkest Lariat, could be implemented as his side special and his Final Smash will be his own Z-Move, Malicious Moonsault.

Nominations:
Saber (Artoria Pendragon) x5

 

[Icedragonadam]

Incineroar

Chance: 20%
Want: 60%

I'm starting to feel that Vergeben's latest information has started to become shaky right now. Of course the determined fate of this leak is possibly tomorrow. So it could be credible.

Primarina Prediction: 12.33%

Nominate Concept: More Than 5 Unique Newcomers x5

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Incineroar Chance: 55%

Let's see.......popular among Pokemon fans? Check It and it's evolutions prominent in the anime right now? Check.

This still feels like one that could almost go either way even if one doesn't take VergeBen's leak into account (especially since he never specifically claimed that the Pokemon newcomer will be Incineroar itself, rather instead claiming several other specific Pokemon are out of the running. This could potentially eliminate some of it's competition, if nothing else). mostly since there are still other logical choices for Pokemon newcomers. There's so many to pick from that still have good things going for them that it's hard to single out just one as being more likely than the rest.

Want: 70%

I don't really have a preferred Pokemon newcomer choice this time around, but Incineroar is badass and would make for a fun fighter. I wouldn't be disappointed if this is what we got in Ultimate.

Nominations: Poke Floats x5

 

[Esquelen]

Incineroar

Chance: 35%
Well, it's a Pokémon starter and maybe if it's not Decidueye, it could be Incineroar, Litten is the pre-evo starter that most people like so it may be a possibility.

I think Sakurai will choose something more random to surprise us.

Want: 60%
Incineroar is my favorite starter of Alola and the one who chose my adventure, I always thought that maybe I could be a fighter if people like the character as their pre-evo, but it seems that no, uh ...

 

[SEGAGameBoy]

Incineroar
Chance - 40% Honestly, I feel like we won't get him because we already have a Fire-type Pokemon, Charizard. But, Incineroar is not just a Fire-type Pokemon, but also a Fighting-type as well. So, I kinda see it happening but, I feel like Decidueye has more of a cahnce.
Want - 75% I haven't played Pokemon Sun/Moon. But, I have played Pokemon Ultra Moon. Also, I'm really good at training Fire-types. In fact, if we ever get a Generation 8, I'm definitely choosing the Fire-type as my starter. I don't why, I just love them.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

FYI I didn’t do a prediction day today since I was sick.

Predict the direct, react, and get ready for a big day tomorrow.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Ok, my predictions for the Direct:

Anyway...

Characters: Ashley and Isabelle. I doubt we'll get the Kroc - he seems like a hype-at-the-end reveal. Maybe possibly Simon or Heihachi as a 3rd party?
Modes: They'll mention classic (back to normal?) and All-Star (ordered in reverse numerical order?). Also Smash run returns. We probably will also get a new branching adventure mode, but I'd guess closer to Melee's or just the Great Maze - a full SSE is unlikely
Stages: We get to see New Donk, and they also show off a few we know about but haven't had a good look at (let's see HD Gerudo Valley!). Possibly announce (intentionally or not) one or two more returning, hopefully Fountain of Dreams and/or Pirate Ship. And maybe a new stage, possibly from an unrepped third party (Minecraft?)
Items: Montage of items we know about from the Treehouse, but haven't really seen like the Banana gun or Abra's Pokéball. Also a bunch of disconfirmations, including at least one high profile (I'm feeling a Mimikyu Pokéball, for some reason. Just please not K.Rool assist)
Movesets: Showing off a few changes for some of the other vets, most likely including Peach/Robin/Young Link's Final Smashes. Also maybe more in Peach/Daisy differences.
Other: I wouldn't be surprised to get reveals that some characters have more than 8 costumes. We know Rids has Meta Ridley (please let that also be an Alph-style alt so his name is "Meta-Ridley"), but it seems weird that Mario would have lost his Fire Mario alt. Also would be nice to see old-style Link/Zelda costumes (Hyrule Warriors Dorf, please), or maybe have the octolings as Inklings' 9th and 10th costumes (female and male, red and black as ink colors)

I'm trying to unhype myself as much as possible. I know my #1 doesn't have a snowball's chance, and I'm hoping that my #2 can still be in the running after today. I just don't want to be disappointed. I'll be at work so I probably won't even get a chance to see it until I leave...maybe by the time I get home the site will be done crashing.

Good luck everyone! Hope you get your favorite confirmed!

 

[Sari]

Predictions:

• Ashley and/or Isabelle will be revealed as a character.
• At least one echo fighter will be revealed. I'm thinking it could be Isabelle as a Villager echo but aside from that I don't know who (maybe Dark Samus?).
• The whole debate of a possible Gen VII Pokemon rep will be resolved in some form, with at least one of the highly talked about characters (Lycanroc, Mimikyu, Decidueye, Incineroar, or Tapu Koko) being a pokeball character.
• New Donk City will be shown in-depth.
• Kongo Jungle 64, Pirate Ship, Pac-Maze, and Gamer will return as stages.
• Smash Run returns.
• All-star versus mode (each stock is a different character).
• Assist trophy switch.
• Melee-styled adventure mode.
• Spoiler: Nintendo screwed up now

  EDIT: Nintendo screwed up big time on the official website by accidentally leaking Bloody Tears. Looks like we'll be getting Simon Belmont in this Direct.

 

[VexTheHex]

Prediction Like Post

Full Deal Newcomer Top 3
1. Ashley

2. Incineroar

3. Dixie




Echo Top 3
1. Dixie

2. Shadow

3. Chrom




And a handful of deconfirmations from ATs and Pokeballs. of course.

• Spoiler: Nintendo screwed up now

  EDIT: Nintendo screwed up big time on the official website by accidentally leaking Bloody Tears. Looks like we'll be getting Simon Belmont in this Direct.

Oh, well good thing I saw this to remind me I forgot to put Simon here like I always was going to. Totally.

AND OBVIOUSLY SIMON BELMONT, I KNEW IT ALL ALONG.

 

[skylanders fan]

well I mean Simion is likely so I won't add him to my list

but I still see 1 more newcomer and a echo fighter

and my guess would be chrom or shadow will be shown as echo fighters and a new charcter like Geno or Incenoroar in the game.
I also see us seeing a new story mode and the retrun of the trophy arcade from Brawl

 

[DjinnandTonic]

Hmm... So if Simon is basically confirmed... Does that mean that Vergeben can actually be trusted? (I kind of hope not since that means Decidueye, Lycanroc, and Mimikyu are all deconfirmed and that the worst option for a Gen7 mon Incineroar is the most likely... blech, do not want another Fire Starter...)

Prediction: Simon! HELL YEAH!
Prediction: Stage Hazard Toggle explanation (Really curious how in-depth that will be)
Prediction: "Switch" Stock mode - one character per stock. (Want this in competitive so bad!)
Prediction: Some kind of watered-down Subspace/Adventure mode. (The thing I'm most excited for, so I'm trying to keep my hopes in check...)
Prediction: Uh... some Echo fighters that I won't really care about?

Hopes: Bandana Dee!

 

[DaUsername]

Okay, guys, I know this is really unlikely, but I think Simon Belmont will be revealed.

 

[GoodGrief741]

As far as reactions go, I stood up and screamed 6 times during the direct. I am placated.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

So we are gonna do a cool off day, tell our reactions, and then satisfaction rankings.

My thoughts?

Simon we had ideas was coming and made sense. His trailer played up Castlevania in the exact way that I thought they would. I am hyped for Dracula's Castle for the music in particular, that stage will be my omega of choice. Richter echo was a pleasant suprise. I thought they would just do Belmont based skins but seeing the number two Belmont make it in is good for my soul. I just want a Trevor esque skin though.

Chrom getting his chance honestly made me happy. Seems to take a bit from Marth and Ike, I saw Ike Up Smash and Aether but a lot of Marth tools too, best case for Chrom. Glad for his supporters.

I own the Dark Samus thread so I am happy. I am just glad she floats and exudes Phazon. My favorite echo so far until we get Shadow.

Seeing Ashley and Mimikyu deconfirmed stung. They were some of my more wanted. Lycanroc also is not in a great state unless Vergeben does a 180 which he easily will since he did it with Fighterz leaks. Ditto for Decidueye. I just do not particularly want Incineroar since it kind of bores me but I mean it is a decent choice. I would prefer Lycanroc Dusk, Decidueye, or Nihilego or Buzzwole (Expect some closeted Nihilego support next week). Ashley's deconfirmation stung a lot, since it seemed she was so close. Hopefully next time though .

Shovel Knight getting an assist makes me feel that we wont get an Indie, which rn I am happy about.

Squad battles and Stage Swap seems hype. Excited for Brinstar Depths, Pirate Ship, Paper Mario, Mute City, and New Donk City.

K Rool is perfect. He has a tail and looks crazy. I am happy.

Going in I expected one newcomer and one echo. I am very satisfied. I expect something in the next nintendo direct and perhaps another smash direct seeing as they have a lot still to announce (all star mode, potential single player modes, etc).

So who do I think is hurt/helped the most by this news dump?

Dixie: Yeah yeah a slight dip in chance from me. K Rool getting in w/o her showing up at the end makes me feel he is the main attraction. Perhaps as an echo but she seems less likely.

Shadow and Isabelle: Surviving another AT dump helps these two. While we did not get that many assist trophies, the biggest promoted contenders in Ashley and Takamaru are deconfirmed.

Geno: With a focus on "Fan Favorites" (Dark Samus was not a fan favorite I am hipster hear me roar) I feel that this one will get a nice boost.

Banjo Kazooie: See Geno, though I could see this as DLC.

Minecraft Stage, Isabelle again, and a New Gen 7 Pokemon: God damn it Vergeben lol

 

[Sari]

Post Direct thoughts:

• That monster literally killed Luigi.
• The Belmonts look fun and I really love the stage.
• Nice to have Chrom.
• So glad to see Brinstar Depths returning.
• Shovel Knight assist trophy makes me think the same will happen to Shantae or another indie character.
• Ashley being deconfirmed was easily the worst part of the Direct for me. At least Isabelle survived the assist trophy massacre and will most likely be confirmed some time down the road.
• That blurred out green section on the menu is definitely a new story/adventure mode.
• K. Rool looks really fun.

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

I really hope the secret mode is Melee mode.

 

[BlueMagician]

+ Plus
Richter!
Squad Battle
FS Meter
Chrom!
Fountain of Dreams
Good Starfox music
Other stuff, like seriously 95% of the direct

- Minus
Disconfirm for Ashley, Zero, Mimikyu

I assure you there are more good things that I am happy about, but I'm really deflated by the disconfirms to the point that it feels heavier than the positive stuff

 

[Quetzal77]

Ugh Chrom? Really? Three Awakening reps, three Marth inspired characters, and yet another blue haired sword lord. Why is it so hard to properly rep FE? There's no shortage of unique main characters. Lyn, Hector, Celica, Ephraim are all more popular than Chrom and more unique too. Or how about waiting to release Edelgard as DLC since she's an axe lord? But no, gotta keep pandering to Awakening.

Everything else was hype though. Love the reveal trailers and Simon looks amazing!

 

[Mrs.Milky]

+ Plus
Richter!
Squad Battle
FS Meter
Chrom!
Fountain of Dreams
Good Starfox music
Other stuff, like seriously 95% of the direct

- Minus
Disconfirm for Ashley, Zero, Mimikyu

I assure you there are more good things that I am happy about, but I'm really deflated by the disconfirms to the point that it feels heavier than the positive stuff

Seeing zero deconfirmed was so saddening but at least he's there..

 

[Ze Diglett]

Oh, man... where do I begin?

• K. Rool fans FINALLY get their wish, which could entail a potential future for the character after years of inactivity
• Simon, Richter, and Dark Samus all got in despite their lack of relevancy, seemingly killing off the relevancy argument for good along with K. Rool's inclusion
• Chrom actually got his chance another day
• Two of my least wanted newcomers, Captain Toad and Mimikyu, are disconfirmed (or basically disconfirmed, in the case of the former)
• Brinstar Depths, Fountain of Dreams, and Rainbow Cruise are BACK! (On the other hand, no Mute City Melee or Poke Floats... ah well.)
• Multi-fighter stock battles are finally a standalone mode
• Shovel Knight's in the game! (Not as a fighter, but I never expected him to be one anyway.)
• The new Castlevania stage looks cool, although I'll have to see how it plays to know my true feelings on it
• Boss Battles/Adventure Mode basically confirmed by the Rathalos scene
• HOLY **** THE MUSIC

Yeah, this was a good Direct. Maybe not my absolute favorite Direct ever, but up there for sure. That K. Rool trailer in particular was just fantastic; the animation was beautiful, it was endlessly entertaining, and the direction was spot-on. A tough one to top for sure. Apart from that, I liked basically everything I saw in the Direct - the closest thing to an actual disappointment in my book was Ashley being disconfirmed, but I was never super attached to her anyway, so I don't mind. Above all, however, I love how it skyrockets my most wanted's chances by basically confirming the fanservice argument to be true. Here's hoping I'm right!

 

[VexTheHex]

Well, the most likely newcomer I put got deconfirmed (Ashley) for the direct, but I did get Chrom right!

Anyways...



Confirmations - It's weird when out of some pretty big characters being revealed... another blue haired swordsman echo was one of the highlights for you, but man is he rocking that blue/silver white outfit and he got his day!!!

Simon Belmont - He was one that I was more excited about the idea of instead of actually having history of him. I thought the whip and series could pull something interesting to the roster. His reveal was cool, though he is less "whip" than I thought he'd be. I guess the Chronicle version of him had me expecting a longer ranged whip snap type character. He's still pretty cool.

Richter - Had no idea who he was, but I may prefer his look over Simon's tbh. The over the top muscles on Simon looks a tad silly and at least Richter's aren't as much and also more clothing on him to cover it. I don't think anyone saw him coming, so that was a pretty cool curveball.

Chrom - Yay! I'm pretty happy for the guy and his fans. Chrom's rather cruel deconfirmation last time feels better now that the he gets to step into Smash now. He also seems to be some type of hybrid Echo of Ike and Marth, I find that rather interesting and he may end up a better slot on the roster than both Roy and Lucina. I like the blue/white in his color scheme as well.

Edit- Apparently he is a Echo of Roy with Ike's Up B.

Dark Samus - Even with Ridley confirmed, I kind of expected her to show up. She was an obvious Echo choice. She looks pretty dang cool and is an exciting addition. She does feel like that edgy knock off Samus, but her attacks are pretty.

King K Rool - Didn't expect him to drop this early, so that was a big surprise. I'm happy he is in cause DK could really use the rep as well as adding a new and exciting villain to the roster. Not sure I'm digging what we saw of his move set, but I don't tend to play heavy weights anyway. But it's cool to have him.



Deconfirmations - Hello Ouchies, Vex loses multiple supported choices.

Mimikyu - We loss our first big Pokemon in the debates and that one poster must be tickled with utter joy. It stung some as I felt it could of been a cool addition, but my support and expectation in it's arrival fell pretty hard with Pichu's return. Without Pichu, I would of been still pretty adamant it could of made it, but I feel Pichu's return sealed the deal. No not cause Mimikyu would be a clone, but cause then 2 Pokemon slots would be Pikachu's copycats. The petty side of me wished Decidueye went down as well, been cool to see the chaos here.

Ashley - I guess Wario's series still isn't big enough to warrant her. I feel her popularity and mage appeal may bust her through if there is another Smash down the road. But I think right now ironically the thing holding her back the most is her own series. She needs to burst out on her own and start her own series.

Monster Hunter?!? - I feel they wouldn't of introduced the Rathalos without Monster Hunter first if they made it into the game. I was supporting it pretty hard with it's upcoming releases and underestimated popularity on here, but I feel Rathalos gives the series a good and powerful rep.



Notes - Surprised nobody has posted about...

Nobody is going to point it out? The "No 3rd party series will get a 2nd rep, not even a Echo" is dead. I expected it to happen, but I really didn't expect it to be Richter to kill it. That was the curve ball I didn't see coming in terms of who.

Shadow is sitting pretty right now. Tails could still show up through, same with Eggman.

 

[blueneuronDOTnet]

Nobody is going to point it out? The "No 3rd party series will get a 2nd rep, not even a Echo" is dead.

This and the Ashley deconfirmation were the only good things to come out of this Direct. We now have triple reps for Konami, which increases the chances of the Pacman-Heihachi-Lloyd trio for Namco.

 

[VexTheHex]

Another thing in regards to concepts - Rathalos's Introduction Stage doesn't match up to the ones we have been shown. This could point towards a boss mode, a adventure mode, a story mode, or a unconfirmed Monster Hunter stage. Just a little food for thought on that.

 

[RouffWestie]

Smash has been perfected thanks to these announcements in my opinion. I don't care what they add at this point. All I could ask for is Lip, but she's a meme character with no real merits, so I'm willing to take whatever I can get.

 

[ShinyRegice]

I got the chance to watch the Direct a few hours after the livestream without spoilers and it was really AMAZING!

There's so much Castlevania content, and the trailer was amazing. Dracula's Castle as Luigi's Mansion on steroids was an awesome idea.

I expected Chrom as an echo and got it, although not as I expected. Rather than an echo of Ike, he seems to be an echo of Roy with Ike's up special. Now I want to see Robin's new Final Smash.
Dark Samus as an echo, I wasn't sure of it, but she was my most wanted echo and I'm glad it happened. Now I feel embarrassed for the 0.07% chance score I originally gave her...

This game's content is HUGE! So many tracks and stages! Also FOUNTAIN OF DREAMS! Boss battles being there is great news, will be funny to see playable Ridley against them.

Oh and of course KING K. ROOL IS PLAYABLE! His CGI trailer and his design are awesome and he has a Kaptain alt! I need to rewatch his gameplay though. At least his Final Smash is great! Edit: just checked his Kaptain attire appears when he uses his blunderbuss attack instead of being an alt.

Disappointing news on the other hand (although this direct was still overwhelmingly positive to me overall): very little new stages (and it looks like any character from a currently unrepresented series is deconfirmed now), and Mimikyu deconfirmed as the playable generation 7 Pokémon rep (not a huge deal I got over it pretty much immediately, also we get no Alola stage).

 

[VexTheHex]

very little new stages (and it looks like any character from a currently unrepresented series is deconfirmed now)

Hmm, I counted them on the select screen and it is 103. Unless he means that it's like "currently" at 103 till more are revealed. That is a possibility. Otherwise lots of characters just footstool jumped into the abyss of deconfirmation. He did state there were a few more characters to be shown off. If I'd have to guess... it'd be Tails or Shadow for Sonic, Gen 7 Pokemon with my guess and pick being Incineroar, maybe Bandana Dee for Kirby since it's been pretty quiet on the Kirby content, and lastly Dixie and Isabelle as Echos.

 

[Scamper52596]

Fantastic Direct. Loved every minute of it.

The most exciting thing to me is how many stages are in the game. I was really hoping that the next Smash on the Switch would feature a lot of stages before the game was officially revealed, and I seem to have gotten my wish. My favorites are all there. I never imagined Spirit Train would make the jump from the 3DS, but it happened. And my favorite stage of all time being Pirate Ship is there along with it. Definitely going to be using that new stage morphing feature with those two.

Speaking of which, I also love all the various ways you can change up the way you play the game. I'm sure it'll make for quite some fun experiences with friends. Also everything being streamlined so well for all types of players to play how they'd like. This game is looking so good.

So the character reveals were really cool. Wasn't expecting 5 characters today, only 1 unique and 1 Echo. Simon Belmont I was already fully expecting even if it wasn't for the accidental music leak last night, so it was nice to see confirmation. Wasn't expecting an Echo to go along with him though.

Chrom I always thought was a good possibility ever since they decided to classify clones as Echo Fighters, so I guess it's cool to see him. He got his chance another day!

Dark Samus was the Echo Fighter I thought was most obviously going to be in the game, so no surprise there when she showed up. Still cool to get confirmation. Guess we now have 3 Link's and 3 Samus's.

And King K. Rool was a neat reveal. When they started to tease him with the camera shaking as the Direct was wrapping up he was my first thought. Glad to finally see some more Donkey Kong representation. Always thought he was very likely, so it's nice to see him in the game. Wonder if this will prompt his return to the Donkey Kong series someday.


Overall, the only thing that really surprised me was Richter as an Echo Fighter since a clone of a 3rd party, or alternate character based on a 3rd party character has been unprecedented. I thought Shadow was a good possibility as an Echo before, but now I'm starting to lean even more-so on that prediction becoming a reality. What really surprised me though is just how much they revealed in this Direct. My main two predictions for the Direct were either Simon Belmont, or King K. Rool. And we got both!

So here are some of my predictions that I've gotten right and wrong so far.

I predicted Inklings as one of the big draws for a potential Smash on the Switch. Not really impressive though as pretty much the entire Smash community was doing the same.

I predicted us getting 3 Link's on the roster, but I thought the 3rd Link would be Champion Link with Twilight Princess Link staying in his original form. So I got that one half right.

Never gave much thought to us actually getting Ridley, but knew that it was going to be him the moment they showed the first shot of the trailer when it aired.

After the first Assist Trophies were revealed back at E3, I started to figure that the only way we'd see Assist Trophies make the jump to playable status is if they were Echo Fighters. So far that has been true now that we have Dark Samus. The only ones at this point that I could see making the jump and being unique are Skull Kid if we even get a new Zelda character, or maybe Isabelle. I think she's more likely to be an Echo though. Thought Ashley or Midna might have been able to do it, but was never too confident in either.

I always predicted that Mimikyu would be a Pokeball, so that came true.

I figured Simon was a likely candidate even without the leak because he made sense. With Konami backing the game again with Snake, and one of Konami's likeliest characters being confirmed as an Assist Trophy right off the bat (Bomberman) it seemed Simon would be the one to get in if we were to get another Konami character. Which is something I thought was likely to happen after Snake's reveal.

I was very confident in King K. Rool, but thought Dixie would be confirmed as an Echo alongside him. Doesn't seem like she made it though.


Really looking forward to seeing what else they have in store. Currently reworking my predictions inside my head now that we got this new info dump. Can't wait for the next Smash Direct!

 

[TCT~Phantom]

In my honest opinion I think we are getting that monster hunter stage. Officially we know of 103, we likely will get a couple more (maybe 4-5 more new stages). Vergeben stayed a Minecraft stage would appear, and monster hunter likely has a stage given that background (tell me that’s single player only you are wrong). Don’t go full panic mode yet.

 

[Erimir]

Overall: it was great. Simon Belmont and King K. Rool were my two most wanted after Ridley. Some great changes or additions to modes and options. Nobody disconfirmed that I was particularly bothered by.

Stages and music overall are great. I don't care that much about items, I won't be using them much either way. Also seems like Vergeben is pretty much confirmed to be legit. That doesn't mean ALL of his info is good. One of his sources could be bad or some of his info could be outdated, or he could even be punking us on one thing or another. But it's much more likely than not if he says it's in.

Characters/associated aspects/disconfirmations:

• Simon Belmont - one of my most wanted. I hope he has a Simon's Quest palette, that was my first Castlevania game
  • Alucard - my second was Symphony of the Night and I enjoy that he uses the Crissaegrim rather than his personal sword. That was by far the most powerful weapon in the game
  • Richter Belmont - also appears in SotN. This is fine, it doesn't matter that much to me vs. having a vampire hunter in general
  • Castlevania stage looks cool, but most importantly has a ton of great music. I'm only sad they didn't include Praying Hands, one of the best Game Boy tracks of all time.
  • Dracula and friends are whatever. I will be turning them off most of the time.
• Chrom - yet another Fire Emblem blue-haired sword lord, who's also a clone of a clone? As someone who's not a big fan of FE, let me say... woo Fire Emblem really needed another rep. At least I'm pretty sure they won't be getting a full newcomer slot at this point, so that's good.
• Dark Samus - looks cool. Curious to see how much difference there is, so far the biggest difference seems to be her hovering on the ground. Probably makes her dash attack harder to react to, but I hope there's more than that.
• King K Rool - my other most wanted! ****, my top three were Ridley, Simon Belmont and King K Rool, and I got them all!
  • This does make Dixie Kong seem less likely. She still has a chance (after all, Dark Samus didn't get revealed alongside Ridley), especially if she's a Diddy Echo, but she's a lot less likely. As much as I like Dixie, though, a unique K Rool beats out a clone Dixie, so I'm happier with K Rool. She's now my most wanted.
• Notable disconfirms:
  • Mimikyu, Ashley, Pauline - perfectly fine
  • Zero - don't care much
  • Shovel Knight - would've been cool, but it's fine
  • Captain Toad (he appears on New Donk City Hall) - I would've been fine with him, but I'm not surprised
  • Alucard, Dracula, etc. - never expected them to make it in, a Belmont is more unique and more associated with Nintendo than Alucard. Given that, an Alucard AT is cool. What would be even cooler would be a SotN port for Switch! Preferably upgraded for HD/widescreen!
• Characters notably NOT disconfirmed:
  • Shadow and Tails - Really don't want Shadow, not a huge Sonic fan in the first place and "edgy" Sonic is a lot less appealing than him. If we must get a Sonic Echo, let it be Tails with a unique up-B and a tail attack or two.
  • Dixie Kong - already discussed
  • Isabelle - With Vergeben seeming more and more legit (Simon confirmed, Mimikyu disconfirmed), she seems extremely likely at this point. I guess I'm ok with this, although I don't really like Villager's moveset that much.

Modes and options

• Hazard toggle - explicitly confirmed.... yesssssss. The only question now is how people will decide on a stage list with so many stages now being viable.
  • Wondering how they'll handle online For Glory type stuff. Because Final Destination all the time is kinda boring. I would expect (hope) they'd add Battlefield at a minimum. The hazard toggle makes even more stages plausible options for For Glory, but it's unclear how they'd implement it given that there are still plenty of stages with issues even without hazard (platform camping issues, walkoffs, caves of life, wall traps etc.)
• Squad Strike - looks fun. Could even be a side tournament option.
• Stage morph - less sure about this, but certainly could be fun for casual play
• Training mode - very useful additions, will make it much easier to measure things
• Final Smash meter - definitely looks less annoying than Smash Balls, but probably still too unbalanced for competitive play. But I might actually use it.

ETA: I don't think we've seen all the stages. For one, there seems to be a Monster Hunter stage because Ratholos is said to be a stage boss, which means he's associated with a specific stage and none of the existing stages make any sense. It's extremely unlikely that he'd be added to a returning stage, and also would make no sense for him to be part of any of the new stages we've seen. For another, the stage select screen has room for a handful of more stages. Vergeben says there's a Minecraft stage, and there'd still be room for four more after those two.

 

[VexTheHex]

In my honest opinion I think we are getting that monster hunter stage. Officially we know of 103, we likely will get a couple more (maybe 4-5 more new stages). Vergeben stayed a Minecraft stage would appear, and monster hunter likely has a stage given that background (tell me that’s single player only you are wrong). Don’t go full panic mode yet.

ETA: I don't think we've seen all the stages. For one, there seems to be a Monster Hunter stage because Ratholos is said to be a stage boss, which means he's associated with a specific stage and none of the existing stages make any sense. It's extremely unlikely that he'd be added to a returning stage, and also would make no sense for him to be part of any of the new stages we've seen. For another, the stage select screen has room for a handful of more stages. Vergeben says there's a Minecraft stage, and there'd still be room for four more after those two.

I disagree with both of you. The Monster Hunter "stage" and Rathalos's introduction are all done on a open fielded area like most boss fights in the SSE era with only 1 character at a time in these shots. I stand by saying this Rathalos footage and stage are part of a Boss Battle.

Also bonus time!!! Mario's I been kidnapped face.

And Wolf's WTF is going on, that's not a landmaster face

 

[Kotor]

Another page has been ripped off from the Rulebook of Assumptions: "No Third-Part franchise can have a second playable character."

That's the main thing I was surprised about. I know people have been suggesting it, but it looks like Shadow may actually happen. My only familiarity with Shadow is from Sonic Adventure 2: Chao World. I never played the games he appeared after that. Personally, I would rather see Eggman, but what can you do? We have Richter Belmont to thank for destroying the assumption and for creating the precedent.

As for the others. Simon was a neat idea as the next Third Party newcomer. I like that they went with the classic design. I could see them using the modern designs where Simon's a redhead as a color swap. 8-player Smash but everyone is Third-Party is officially a thing.

Dark Samus is just there for me, though it made more sense as the next Metroid newcomer than Sylux.

Good for you K. Rool fans. Same thing as for Simon. Classic design > Modern design Dixie please

And finally the main event.... CHROM. He finally got his chance! After four years of mockery, Chrom got in despite Awakening no longer being the most recent game, or a the next FE entry being a sequel to Awakening. His popularity has endured all these years since 2012/2013. Granted, I wasn't preaching for Chrom to get his chance, but in the event he did happen, I would welcome it. I look forward to those 20-paged essays on why FE doesn't deserve another newcomer.

Mimikyu's out. Decidueye and Lycanroc are technically still in the running despite Verge saying the Gen VII newcomer it's not them. Hoping it's Incineroar simply because he was my starter in Moon, and for having a heel wrestling gimmick. Joke prediction is Necrozma.

 

[VexTheHex]

From another thread I read that Dracula is actually in a similar boat to Rathalos.

We get a literal "intro" to him shown captured in the first screenshot. Look at him alone with Cloud and Richter. It is also noted that in the final take of the fight that Richter and Simon are together, but Simon uses a ranged attack and THEN we see Dracula with Richter running up to him. Simon doesn't actually appear in the same shot. One more thing to note about them is his size. HE IS HUGE. It's also another flat (tho pretty) zone like Rathalos's. Pretty sure we are getting a more Soul Calibur or Melee hybrid where we get to fight some regular fights, run a couple gauntlets, a couple bosses, and then we fight our character's main nemesis which is likely shared between multiple characters. I could see Rathalos just being some halfway boss you can get.

I'm pumped.

How Mimikyu fans feel

 

[Erureido]

Copy and pasting my thoughts on this Smash Ultimate Direct from another thread:

Back from a long day of work, and I watched the Smash Ultimate Direct. This was amazing Direct. Breaking down my thoughts:

Simon Belmont's reveal was pretty cool. I figured it was him from the moment they showed what was inside, but man, shocking to see that Luigi straight up died in that trailer! Simon Belmont's arrival was badass. He has a nice moveset too, and while I would've preferred his red-hair design, I think his classic NES look here looks great! Nice to see he has an Echo in the form of Richter too. Dracula's Castle looks like a nice stage, and Dracula as a stage boss looks cool too. The fact it's getting 34 music tracks is awesome as well, especially with Castlevania's great soundtrack. Can't

*Sakurai mentions the reveal of two more Echo Fighters, and there is an immediate transition to the Castle Siege stage.* And then, the shocking reveal that made me scream from excitement:

CHROM IS FINALLY IN SMASH AS A PLAYABLE FIGHTER!

My reaction:

Yes, I was THAT excited when Chrom was revealed! Not only is he my first and favorite Fire Emblem lord in the series, my second most wanted in the Smash 4 days was FINALLY added to Smash as a playable fighter. I remember feeling so hurt seeing how brutally deconfirmed he was back then, so to see him playable in this game made me EXTREMELY happy! I remember my interest in Chrom returning with the reveal of Echo Fighters, and voila, Chrom was added as an Echo. What's even more surprising is that Chrom wasn't an Echo of Ike like myself and many others thought, but an Echo of Roy! Upon closer inspection, his moveset actually references some of the other FE fighters in Smash, so it's nice how Chrom's moveset is almost like a celebration of Fire Emblem in Smash!

And congrats to Opossum for finally getting your most wanted! As a fellow Chrom fan, you can imagine that I was just as happy as you were when Chrom was revealed! No doubt Chrom will be one of my mains for Smash Ultimate! I'm really looking forward to playing as him!

Dark Samus as an Echo of Samus is cool too. I didn't care for Dark Samus all that much, but it's still quite nice to see Dark Samus was added as a playable fighter, especially because of popular she was!

Can't say much about the returning stages, but Brinstar Depths looks fantastic in HD! I'm also really happy that Fountain of Dreams is back! As for the new stages, New Donk City looks cool. It's basically Prism Tower in terms of how it plays out (a.k.a, you're traveling up the main tower) but with different visuals and intractable stage elements. We already knew about Battlefield forms and the stage hazard toggle, but I'm still very happy to see both of these features were added. We can finally pick far more stages for competitive play than in the past!

Stage morph is a surprising addition. Not sure if I'll use it myself though, but it's a neat concept.

I really like how all stages from a given video game franchise now share the same, selectable music! That's great! I can now have something like Dialga and Palkia's Battle theme playing in N's Castle!

Rather neat how Smash Ultimate can turn your Switch into a portable music player, but I'm not sure if I'll use it myself (I mean, when I saw "Workout tunes" and then they showed this new portability feature, I almost laughed just at the thought of carrying your Switch with you while working out at a gym).

We've got some neat new items too. Nice to see the Fire Emblem series finally has its own Smash item in the form of the Killing Edge (which has a pretty cool effect here too), the Ramblin' Evil Mushroom looks like it'll be a pain to go up against with the way it reverses your controls, and the Rage Blaster is interesting with the way its the Smash blaster but with a built in rage-mechanic (basically Lucario but in item form).

Can't say much about the PokeBall portion, but RIP Mimikyu, even if I didn't care for it very much prior to its deconfirmation. Alolan Exeggutor looks fun though.

As for Assist Trophies, Zero looks cool, and the Evil Moon along with Rathalos look rather OP. Kinda cool that Rathalos is both a stage boss and an Assist Trophy at the same time too. I wonder if other Stage bosses will have this treatment. Sad to see that Ashley is an Assist Trophy yet again though. RIP Shovel Knight as well.

As for some the other things revealed, I'm glad they're bringing back the good ol' Classic Mode and not the one from Smash WiiU. The Final Smash meter is a neat idea for parties, but I don't see myself using that much. Squad Strike and Smashdown look decent, and it's cool how the Training Mode now has a grid for measuring knockback and special move trajectory.

The menu looks nice too. That new mode they are hiding is definitely Adventure Mode though. Will it be Melee's Adventure mode or Brawl's Adventure mode? Only time will tell.

And the reveal at the end: at first, when they showed all the hero characters fighting their rivals/villains in the Smash roster, I thought this was revealing the new Adventure mode, but when they showed Donkey Kong and Diddy Kong, I had a feeling K. Rool would be the reveal (I mean, the only other plausible DK newcomer was Dixie, and no way would she be attacking DK's hut), and I was right. His reveal was trailer hilarious! First you had King Dedede who completely trolled Donkey Kong and Diddy Kong with his K. Role costume, and the way Dedede laughs like crazy afterward almost felt like Sakurai was trolling with the K. Rool fans for a second. That'd be quite a brutal deconfirmation, so I was hoping to see the real K. Rool show up and knock Dedede away. Turns out it happened, and I laughed even more seeing that scene as well as Donkey Kong and Diddy Kong's reaction. His moveset looks fun, though I don't see myself using him. K. Rool wasn't a character I was interested in seeing in Smash, but I am very happy for his fans. He's been requested since the Brawl days, so it's great to see the fans finally got what they wanted after so long. Congrats, K. Rool fans! You deserved it.

10/10 Direct overall. All the character reveals were great, the new modes and other stuff are looking quite good, and Chrom will definitely be one of my mains alongside Greninja for this game!

 

[Groose]

Reactions? I'm absolutely GLOWING!

 

[Cetus]

I gotta say, I'm very satisfied with this direct. K. Rool was on my wishlist and I'm a fan of Awakening so Chrom's addition was pretty nice. Never played a single Castlevania game, but I'm very happy we got Simon mostly because of the interesting potential a fighter like that could have. Plus, Richter's inclusion now opens the door for third party echos such as Jeanne or Shadow. I don't care for Dark Samus at all, but people seem happy so I'm happy.

I give this direct 10 K. Rools out of 10.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Characters:

Simon: Not a massive surprise thanks to Verg(honestly leaks are a blessing and a curse. And it's a horrible night for one), but Simon looks pretty fun, well put together moveset and his trailer was incredible. Poor Luigi. Ultimate's really setting out to murder all the Marios. Watch next reveal to see Peach get killed by...I dunno...Isabelle somehow.

Richter: A rarity; a character I literally have never heard of. Haven't had one of these since Lucas' reveal in Brawl. He looks neat, but I'm wondering why Simon came with an echo since this is a character I've heard precisely zero buzz about.

Chrom: I'm weirdly excited about Chrom joining Robin and Lucina. Maybe it was the disrespect trailer for Robin and Lucina, or maybe because I originally thought in Sm4sh we got all three, but I'm pleased to see Chrom join the Fire Emblem gang. Apparently an echo of Roy? Makes more sense than Ike I guess, but still a surprise. I'm concerned he seems to be the reveal that excited me most. What is Robin's Final Smash now?

Dark Samus: With Ridley and now Dark Samus it feels like Sakurai is making up for a lack of Metroid newcomers in the past four games. I don't really know Metroid, so I'm pretty indifferent to her(?) inclusion.

K. Rool: Trailer was good. Those expressions! K. Rool's blunderbus looks like a lot of fun, but overall I'm a little underwhelmed by the rest of his moveset. Maybe I was expecting more since he was the top character for speculation on Smashboards for years? Still with all these more realistic proportioned individuals(All four of the others) a giant ridiculous wacky cartoon crocodile is welcome.

Deconfirmations:
Ashley: Hoo boy, I was actively against Ashley for a bit there, but even I felt bad when I saw her. Not even an acknowledged assist mention. Just showcased on the screen. Honestly it could be a good thing. Maybe she AND Waluigi will both get in together next time instead.

Shovel Knight: I'm frankly shocked Sakurai approached Yacht Games to get the rights to use Shovel Knight as an Assist. Honestly a massive surprise, but one I was relieved to see only went as far as an AT. No offence, but I'm shocked he made it that far.

Mimikyu: A semi surprise. I always thought Mimikyu was more likely as a Pokeball than a playable, but had been convinced he could make the leap.

Captain Toad: Wasn't even deconfirmed in the Direct, so that was a weird one. Appears on the website, but by the looks of things only occasionally? Weirdest deconfirmation to date, but alright? I guess it's over? Sure, could be a Toon Link situation on the Spirit Train situation, but I'm going to assume this is him deconfirmed, at least for the base game.

Other stuff:

Highlight of the entire thing for me was actually the Stage Morph. That's a really cool concept and can make matches a little more interesting.

Abra and Ditto are absolutely incredible Pokeball ideas. Abra works exactly how I wanted him to capable of causing you absolute agony and it's always great to see my favourite Pokemon of all time get some love.
Ditto meanwhile has me questioning whether or not it clones one climber or two, and if it clones Luma as well as Rosalina.

DK FINALLY GOT A FRIGGING ASSIST TROPHY. And it's...not Rambi? That's a shock.

Kapp'n may be my new favourite Assist Trophy. Amusing AND useful.

The stage and music counts are impressive, and I like the customization options. Timed Stock matches and Stamina mode being shifted to a main game rule are good additions. Not looking forward to having to collect ALL those CDs though.