Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[NeonBurrito]

Miles "Tails" Prowler

Chance - 1%

He doesn't have much fan support, competes with Dr. Eggman and especially Shadow as an echo for the slot of a Sonic newcomer, and would be representing a 3rd party franchise that is already represented quite fine with more than one character. I really just don't see him happening.

Want - 1%

I wouldn't be completely against him; Tails is a rather iconic figure and is the Luigi to Sonic's Mario, but with how he's been treated in the Sonic franchise as of late, as well as how he'd be representing the Sonic franchise again, rather than bringing a new 3rd party in, I'd rather not have him.

Nominations:
[Stage] Poke Floats x10

 

[Deleted member]

Tails

Chance: Abstain, but I do have things to say.

A lot of what the speculation community thought were rules have been broken over the years.

- "Characters exclusive to spin-offs are forbidden" is an assumption still made to this day despite proof otherwise. And Doc being a last-minute clone probably doesn't make him an exception, if Geno's consideration is anything to go by.
- Smash's first third party character, and one who was associated more with Sony. No one in their right mind at the time thought this was possible.
- Third party characters owned by companies already represented in Smash. Ryu also debunked an old myth that "fighting game characters aren't allowed", and Bayonetta proved the naysayers that she can be toned down for the E10+ rating. And while it is often assumed that third party characters have to be major gaming icons, the latter is definitely below the level of any of the others currently playable in Smash.
- A character whose only Nintendo appearances were cameos and spin-offs, which was seen by many as a chance killer. While Final Fantasy has a long history with Nintendo, FFVII marked the point when the mainline entries were no longer being released on Nintendo platforms, a trend that continues to this day.
- "They're going to be replaced, just as they replaced Roy and Mewtwo, respectively." That sentence couldn't have been more wrong.
- People assumed that we couldn't get anymore Mario characters in Smash 4 after . They were wrong.
- People assumed that we couldn't get anymore Fire Emblem characters after there were already five. They were wrong again, though Sakurai did admit to having concerns with oversaturating the roster with FE.
- "They're not bringing back transformations," they assumed. "Of course they're going to have one starter per type," they assumed. Wrong and wrong.
- Hated by many and thus assumed to never return again.
- I'm guilty of this too, but having three Links, two of which served the same purpose, was seen as both redundant and nigh-impossible.
- Speaking of Zelda, we all thought that their designs would be based off of or at least inspired by BotW for the sake of consistency. While Link and Sheik were as expected, Zelda and Ganondorf were given their designs from ALttP and OoT, respectively.
- After the whole debacle with Konami and Sakurai's friend Kojima, it seemed unlikely that Sakurai would be willing to collaborate with the company again. Others assumed that Snake was just a one-time inclusion. Now he's back, Bomberman's an Assist Trophy, and Simon is rumored to also be playable.
- It was assumed that just because they were DLC previously, they would be low priority when it came to Smash 5's base roster.
- "She can't be a Peach clone. It'd be out of character for her to be floating or throwing turnips or using Toad as meat shield." And then she ended up being the first Smash Ultimate newcomer with the "Echo Fighter" branding.
- "He's too big!" the naysayers said. Even Sakurai himself said Ridley wasn't feasible. Twice, if I remember correctly. But we can't forget that Sakurai is just as human as any of us are, and is capable of changing his mind on certain characters (see: Villager, Miis, Pac-Man).

tl;dr We've gotten got plenty of things wrong, often due to false assumptions.

One of the remaining "fan rules" that has yet to be proven or broken is more than one third party character from the same series not being able to coexist on the roster. There are characters from Metal Gear (Raiden), Mega Man (Zero), Street Fighter (Ken, Chun-Li), Final Fantasy (Tifa, Sephiroth, other FF protagonists), and even Pac-Man and Bayonetta (Ms. Pac-Man and Jeanne Echo Fighters) that you could make a case for, but no franchise gets brought up more than Sonic the Hedgehog. (Heck, additional Sonic characters have probably generated far more discussion than the idea of characters from any of Sega's other, far less popular franchises in Smash, such as Puyo Puyo or the previously represented Virtua Fighter, but I digress.)

It honestly wouldn't surprise me if Tails, Knuckles, Eggman, and/or Shadow scored high on the ballot, and I'm sure plenty bought the former two's Mii costumes in Smash 4 as well, though I'm aware neither of those potential factors stopped Knuckles from being an Assist Trophy.

As for who'd it be, I have a feeling it'd be a Shadow Echo Fighter. If not, I can see Tails being a frontrunner.

Want: 100%

Because I like Tails, and I think he'd be fun.

Nomination: Spyro Rerate x10

 

[Icedragonadam]

Tails

Chance: 1%
Want: 0%

3rd Parties won't get another rep. They're suppose to be GUEST characters. And I'd rather have characters from new Sega IPs instead, rather than another Sonic character.

Ayumi Prediction: 11.22%

Nominate: Concept: More Than 5 Unique Newcomers(excluding Inklings & Ridley for clarifications sake) x10.

 

[ShroomEL]

Tails

Chance: 10%
I can't really see him in getting into Smash. I feel like Sonic characters are less favorable atm for the Smash roster. I have been seeing a lot of people saying Shadow could be a good Echo fighter, so Tails already doesn't have much of a chance.

Want: 0%
Besides playing quite a bit of the original Sonic games (You know, back when Sonic games were good) ,I've never really been a Sega or Sonic guy. I didn't really care when he was added to brawl, and besides Geno, I'm not really focused on third party characters this time round.

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Also, I know I missed yesterday but I HAVE to rate Fawful!

Chance: 1%
Want: 90%

I'm a huge fan of the Mario and Luigi rpg series and Fawful has been one of my favorite antagonists of Mario games in general, but even with a possible move set, I don't see many other people caring for him, and I have to face the fact that It would be kinda dumb to put him in Smash.

 

[ShadowTheHedgehogZ]

Tails
Chance 50%
It's either him or Shadow
Want 35%
I would rather Shadow or Metal Sonic before Tails but he has a possibility

 

[smashingDoug]

Tails
Chance 50
He’s in or not I don’t make tHHHe game whahahaha

Want 40%

I see characters who could be a echo as Sonic (Shadow, Metal, Amy) have a higher chance of getting in, As opposed to Tails where if he came as an echo it probably would play out in Fan outcry sayings Sonic’s style doesn’t fit Tails, if he was in as in echo.

 

[smileMasky]

Tails
Chance: 1%
with people speculating on echo fighters, and with people seeing shadow as a likely candidate. Even then 3rd parties from the same franchise are more than unlikely because other first party franchises. hes got allot going against him.

Want: 0%
I played a few sonic games but i really dont have any attachment to any sonic character really.

Nomination: Django x10

 

[Opossum]

Reinhardt trophy x10

 

[BluePikmin11]

The only plausible way I can see a second Sonic character happen is through bonus echo means with Shadow. I cannot much of a reason for Tails to be seriously considered outside of high ballot popularity/moveset potential. I think the unique, new third-party additions Sakurai includes will be from different unrepresented franchises, of which series are globally popular and uniquely Japanese. I cannot see additional unique newcomers from already represented third party franchises be seriously considered for the project plan.

---------

x10 Hanafuda character

 

[Erureido]

Tails

Chance: 10%

I'd say he has a solid shot as a second Sonic rep. He is quite iconic and is the Sonic equivalent to Luigi after all. The problem? There are other Sonic characters he'd have to compete with for the second Sonic slot. There are two that come to mind: Dr. Eggman, the main villain of the Sonic series who is also one of the most iconic gaming villains, and Shadow, another popular Sonic character who currently hasn't been confirmed to return as an Assist Trophy and might become a Sonic Echo.

Want: 35%

He'd be my choice for another Sonic rep, but I'm not that keen in seeing another Sonic rep at the moment.

------

Predictions

Ayumi Tachibana (Famicon Detective Club): 4.15%

No comment.

------

Nominations

Phoenix Wright (Ace Attorney): x10

 

[Mrs.Milky]

Tails

Chance: Abstain, but I do have things to say.

A lot of what the speculation community thought were rules have been broken over the years.

- "Characters exclusive to spin-offs are forbidden" is an assumption still made to this day despite proof otherwise. And Doc being a last-minute clone probably doesn't make him an exception, if Geno's consideration is anything to go by.
- Smash's first third party character, and one who was associated more with Sony. No one in their right mind at the time thought this was possible.
- Third party characters owned by companies already represented in Smash. Ryu also debunked an old myth that "fighting game characters aren't allowed", and Bayonetta proved the naysayers that she can be toned down for the E10+ rating. And while it is often assumed that third party characters have to be major gaming icons, the latter is definitely below the level of any of the others currently playable in Smash.
- A character whose only Nintendo appearances were cameos and spin-offs, which was seen by many as a chance killer. While Final Fantasy has a long history with Nintendo, FFVII marked the point when the mainline entries were no longer being released on Nintendo platforms, a trend that continues to this day.
- "They're going to be replaced, just as they replaced Roy and Mewtwo, respectively." That sentence couldn't have been more wrong.
- People assumed that we couldn't get anymore Mario characters in Smash 4 after . They were wrong.
- People assumed that we couldn't get anymore Fire Emblem characters after there were already five. They were wrong again, though Sakurai did admit to having concerns with oversaturating the roster with FE.
- "They're not bringing back transformations," they assumed. "Of course they're going to have one starter per type," they assumed. Wrong and wrong.
- Hated by many and thus assumed to never return again.
- I'm guilty of this too, but having three Links, two of which served the same purpose, was seen as both redundant and nigh-impossible.
- Speaking of Zelda, we all thought that their designs would be based off of or at least inspired by BotW for the sake of consistency. While Link and Sheik were as expected, Zelda and Ganondorf were given their designs from ALttP and OoT, respectively.
- After the whole debacle with Konami and Sakurai's friend Kojima, it seemed unlikely that Sakurai would be willing to collaborate with the the company again. Others assumed that Snake was just a one-time inclusion. Now he's back, Bomberman's an Assist Trophy, and Simon is rumored to also be playable.
- It was assumed that just because they were DLC previously, they would be low priority when it came to Smash 5's base roster.
- "She can't be a Peach clone. I'd be out of character for her to be floating or throwing turnips or using Toad as meat shield." And then she ended up being the first Smash Ultimate newcomer with the "Echo Fighter" branding.
- "He's too big!" the naysayers said. Even Sakurai himself said Ridley wasn't feasible. Twice, if I remember correctly. But we can't forget that Sakurai is just as human as any of us are, and is capable of changing his mind on certain characters (see: Villager, Miis, Pac-Man).

tl;dr We've gotten got plenty of things wrong, often due to false assumptions.

One of the remaining "fan rules" that has yet to be proven or broken is more than one third party character from the same series not being able to coexist on the roster. There are characters from Metal Gear (Raiden), Mega Man (Zero), Street Fighter (Ken, Chun-Li), Final Fantasy (Tifa, Sephiroth, other FF protagonists), and even Pac-Man and Bayonetta (Ms. Pac-Man and Jeanne Echo Fighters) that you could make a case for, but no franchise gets brought up more than Sonic the Hedgehog. (Heck, additional Sonic characters have probably generated far more discussion than the idea of characters from any of Sega's other, far less popular franchises in Smash, such as Puyo Puyo or the previously represented Virtua Fighter, but I digress.)

It honestly wouldn't surprise me if Tails, Knuckles, Eggman, and/or Shadow scored high on the ballot, and I'm sure plenty bought the former two's Mii costumes in Smash 4 as well, though I'm aware neither of those potential factors stopped Knuckles from being an Assist Trophy.

As for who'd it be, I have a feeling it'd be a Shadow Echo Fighter. If not, I can see Tails being a frontrunner.

Want: 100%

Because I like Tails, and I think he'd be fun.

Nomination: Spyro Rerate x10

This is my favorite post

 

[Glaciacott]

Tails

Chance 2%
If any third party series were to get a second character, it'd be Sonic, and Tails makes a lot of sense as a deserving second spot. But then there's that whole Shadow echoes thing... It's possible, don't think it's altogether likely

Want 75%
Yea, I'd like Tails. I played tons of Sonic 2 on Genesis as a kid and often had to use Tails while older cousins used Sonic, so I have a fondness for the character. This is moreso the case in recent times getting to play him exclusively in Sonic Mania. So while I don't go overboard in my desire for Tails, I'd definitely be very happy to see him in Smash and he would definitely fit really well in the roster.

Nominations
Viridi x10, or whatever the max amount of votes is.

 

[PK_Wonder]

Tails 3% Chance

Alexandra Roivas x10

 

[Kotor]

Tails

Chance: 3%
Want: 1%

While I could see the Sonic franchise get away with a second character despite the Rulebook of Assumptions forbidding it, most people I'm seeing want Shadow more. Outside of Shadow, there's Dr. Eggman who I see offering more as a unique newcomer than Tails could. Tails obviously wouldn't work as a Sonic Echo Fighter. Obvious red flag are the two tails. Only real memories I have with Tails is in Sonic Adventure 2. Everything will be okay.

Nomination
Rowlet x10

 

[Idon]

10%/0%
Chance: He's a side character, 3rd party, relatively unimportant in his own series compared to other characters, part of an already represented franchise, and would require actual effort for his tail implementation. He's not happening. However, if Sakurai, for whatever reason decides that Sonic needs another unique character, then Tails would be it.
Want: 0% There are much more characters I'd rather have from Sega than another Sonic character

Nom: SMT Rep x10

 

[ProfPeanut]

Tails

Chance: 10%
The Sonic franchise isn't what it used to be ten years ago. It went from being the biggest non-Nintendo franchise around to that person that can't seem to ever get its glory days back. Sonic characters just have much less weight than they used to. Ask just about anyone if they still consider Sonic one of the biggest franchises of the modern day industry.

People are treating his chances as if Sonic is owed another character for staying in Smash for so long. But at the end of the day, Sega is still just a guest, one whose franchises don't elicit as much genuine excitement as they used to. Tails isn't someone who can easily stand his own against other more exciting, more inclusive third-party choices, and even has trouble arguing for himself versus other Sonic characters such as Eggman.

His main strengths come from the fact that double-dipping in the Sonic franchise is the easiest thing Sakurai can do in terms of adding third-parties that'll excite people, and that Tails is the least controversial choice out of all of them. Tails still has his fans, and although he now faces stiff competition from Shadow of all people because of echo fighters, he's still the bonafide sidekick that's almost as iconic as Sonic himself. He could also easily inherit some of Sonic's attacks as a semi-clone, although that assumes that we'll see any semi-clones at all given the current focus on echo fighters.

I'm of the opinion that if we don't see Tails now, then his next chance is going to be in a Smash when they simply decide to focus fewer third-parties, which would mean making the most out of the partnership with Sega. His chances are relatively good now, but if he doesn't make it in Ultimate, he may not make it in ever.

Want: 1%
I'm opposed to double-dipping any third parties whatsoever, mostly because of the can of worms it opens up. And Sonic's got the ugliest, gnarliest worms you could ever expect from the can, never mind that Tails himself is an otherwise benign choice.


Prediction
Ayumi: 5.7%

Nominations
Viridi x10

 

[PapillonXtreme]

Miles "Tails" Prower

Chance: 25%
Tails might have a chance to be in Ultimate, but the main problem is that he has to compete with Shadow (as an Echo) and even Eggman for the slot. Besides, I'm not really a fan of third party series having more than one character.

Want: 90%
I am a fan of Tails ever since Sonic 2. I really love the character and the fact that he can make gadgets for Sonic is what makes him unique.

Nominations:
Saber (Fate/stay night) x10

 

[ShadowTheHedgehogZ]

Shadow The Hedgehog x10

 

[Arcanir]

Tails

Chance: 1%
Despite being from a series already represented in Smash, third parties are still a highly contentious bunch since there are multiple other characters with notability, popularity, and other such traits that can easily take precedence over Tails, which hampers his chances. Even if we were to restrict it to companies already at the table, that still gives us characters like Lara Croft, Simon Belmont, Monster Hunter, Leon/Jill/Chris, Sora, Ken, Chun-Li and others that all have just as much if not more merit to be considered for a playable role.

What makes this worse is that despite being the second protagonist introduced into the series, he's been long usurped in terms of popularity by Shadow (and Knuckles to an extent, but he's an AT), who's inarguably the second most popular character in the franchise. As a result the series does tend to favor the counterpart over the best friend nowadays, even getting a playable appearance in Sonic Forces' DLC while Tails was left in the NPC role. This definitely lends to the possibility that if Sakurai was looking for another Sonic character, echo or not, Shadow would likely take precedence over him, and considering Shadow is missing from his AT role there's nothing stopping Shadow from being promoted over him.

Ultimately, there's not a lot going for him. The only thing he really has is his historical importance to his series and his series being a consistent guest for three games, but when you're up against other franchises that have at least just as much notability and a character that beats you twice over in popularity, it doesn't bode well for your status among other potential newcomers. I feel that for Sonic's buddy, the odds are not in his favor.

Want: 65%
Tails is one of my favorite characters from the Sonic series, so if he managed to be playable I would not mind one bit.

Nomination: Incineroar x10

 

[CrusherMania1592]

Chance: 10%
Want: 85%

I do think that Sonic deserves a second rep and if it's not Shadow, that title should go to Tails due to his massive popularity with the series of being Sonic's version of Luigi. Tails could use some moves that haven't been bought up yet and him showing up would be a nice surprise


Nominating Gengar x5

 

[DaUsername]

Double abstain.
Ayumi prediction: 3.5%
Noms: All-star versus x10

 

[CometX-ing]

Tails

Chances: 30%

Want 60%

Nominations:
Primarina x10

 

[jamesster445]

Miles Prower

Chance- 25%
Want-0%

I don't like Tails, never did. I also don't think we're getting another Sonic character.

Nomination - Wonder Red x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Miles "Tails" Prower

Chance - 5.75% - As of now, Sonic is one of the foremost choices for a double dip of characters. That said, I don't have much faith in that. I think money spent on that would probably be better spent on other franchises. Even then, he would have to compete with the likes of Eggman and potentially Shadow.

Want - 0% - Really hope we don't double dip. I'd rather spread franchises out.

Prediction

Ayumi - 3.34% - Not seeing her as likely.


Nominations

Nihilego X10

 

[Quetzal77]

Tails
Chance: 5%
I don't see a second Sonic rep happening. If it did, I think Shadow would be the first pick, but Tails is not far behind.

Want: 0%
No interest in a second Sonic rep.

Nominations: Medusa x 5

 

[Smasher 101]

Tails

Chance: 10%

If a third party franchise gets a second character, Sonic would probably be the one. Tails I also feel is the frontrunner for a unique choice, though he has some competition like Eggman, and at this point I feel like the also popular Shadow would be the most likely choice due to being both popular and an easy echo. I ultimately don't think we're getting a second unique Sonic character anyway, I see third parties without a character yet being higher priority.

Want: 20%

I like Sonic, but I would kind of like to keep third parties to one character. There are a lot of other third party franchises with no characters that I'd rather see get included. That said, if we had to double dip, Tails would be my choice.

Nominations: Incineroar x10

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Rex and Pyra
47.67% Chance (Previously 64.69%)
51.48% Want (Previously 46.10%)

A sharp decrease in want, but a strong increase in want. I mean, people have always been conflicted on these two, but being now actually more wanted than not is neat. Still in the top ten for now until i finish calcs tho.

Simon Belmont
59.37% Chance (Previously 16.67%)
64.07% Want (Previously 55.70%)

Big Increase in Chance. Holy cow, that's high. Also his want score has gone up too, now in the top ten there.

Dark Samus
39.32% Chance (Previously 13.04%)
44.30% Want (Previously 40.78%)

Well, the dark hunter got a huge increase in chance, and surprisingly is more wanted!

As for my score for Tails...

5% Chance

Iconic character and his ease of making compared to others could make him a more likely character. However, competition from Shadow who is much easier hurts him, as well as limited spots.

100% Want

I like Tails, he is a lot of fun. One of my favorite Sonic characters design wise. Also for some reason he reminds me of when burger king was good, i can not say why i do not know. But he makes me happy. I like him in SA1, all the 2D sonic games, and tolerate the mech in 2.

Nominating Ninten x 10

Day over, rate Ayumi, predict Parabo and Satebo.

 

[Sari]

Ayumi Tachibana

Chance: 1%
She was considered for Melee and even had her own trophy, but she is incredibly obscure. The amount of new Nintendo characters created since Melee and the limited Ultimate roster spots does not help her case.

Want: Abstain.
She seems like an interesting character but I know almost nothing of her games so I won't comment.

Parabo and Satebo prediction: 5.34%

Nominations: Terry Bogard x10

 

[Mrs.Milky]

Ayumi
Chance:10-30% I got a small feeling that Papa sakurai is maybe revisiting all his past ideas? And since she's one of them, she could be fresh in his mind. Especially since I think there was a interview on the last game and someone mentioned her! There's also her trophy oofy.

Want: 80% I don't want her as badly as my other two most wanted but she makes top 3 in my book. I guess she'd be like the Phoenix wright of smash lolol. Just playing as some highschool girl would be fun.

Nominations: Zero x10
Prediction: Parabo and Satebo(who??) -abstain

 

[RandomAce]

We’re rating Ayumi now? Okay.

Chance: ABSTAIN
I don’t know why, but I feel that she would get in, it’s really a feeling to be honest. When it comes to more concrete evidence, there isn’t a lot.

Sakurai has stated to liking the franchise and was ASKED about Ayumi for Smash in 2014. The fact that Sakurai still remembers her, and how he is pulling original ideas from last Smash games (like Sukapon as an item since Melee) sort of emphasis why I have feeling she’s in.

Plus, she (or the protagonist) can be unique and stand out. There are ways and ideas from them I think Sakurai will use to make them really stand out.

Oh well, it is late at night.

Want: 90%
She (and the protagonist) are characters that have really grown on me. I think they can bring a lot of variety to Smash and have a unique moveset. Not to mention they’ll represent a more unknown series and new IP as well.

I also watched playthroughs of the games (most notably Part II) and the series itself is something I grew to love.

 

[NintenRob]

Oh sheet, Finally they old school duo get their day. Been a while waiting. I love seeing people react to these two

But for now
Ayumi
Chance 3%
Very obscure and doesn't really hold much significance
Want 1%
Not really interested, better than some suggestions though


Now my prediction
Parabo & Satebo 1.1%


Nominate Daroach x10

 

[GoodGrief741]

Ayumi Tachibana

(I really hope people don’t just literally who and actually research who she is and what games she’s in, if only to learn about a curious part of videogame history)

Chance: 15%
The Japan-only thing has hurt Takamaru in Sm4sh, and might have been what kept him out of Ultimate (I struggle to come up with other reasons, except maybe the ease of porting his AT combined with his popularity not coming until after the ballot period). However, I do believe there will be a retro newcomer. The three likeliest, IMO, are Balloon Fighter, Lip and Prince Sable, but that doesn’t mean I should discount the competition. Ayumi’s games are regarded as classics in their homeland, Sakurai has considered her and likes her character, and her moveset would be unique and gimmicky (Sakurai seems to like gimmicky if 4 is any indication).

Want: 100%
Obscure Nintendo character are just my jam.

Parabo and Satebo prediction: 0%
I actually know who they are, but I don’t expect many people to and even if they make research I don’t see anyone in their right mind giving them more than that, sadly.

Nominations: NintenX5
Ryu HayabusaX5

 

[Parallel_Falchion]

Ayumi Tachibana
Chance: 5%
She has been considered before, so there's always the chance she could be considered again, but I can't see it happening. Demand isn't high and Japan-only status hasn't changed.

Want: 20%
She'd be an interesting slice of Nintendo history for sure.

Nominate Style Savvy character x10

 

[VexTheHex]

Ayumi Tachibana
Chance - 1%
Not really sure why she'd stand a decent shot to be quite honest. Seems like people are mostly riding for her being "considered" at one point, but there is no real telling on how much that "considered" really was. She may of been on a list of 500 characters proposed on a page and survived the first purge to be purged from the 250 list for example. She is from a series that has been dormant and wasn't even the main protagonist of two of the games.
Want - 0%
She just looks like some typical schoolgirl. She has no flair to her. Also why would she get in over the Protagonist of the first two games? He doesn't really stand out either, but I'd think Protagonist would be the pick. At least they wouldn't have to figure out what to do with his privates like they'd have to do with her cause of that very "loved" Japanese school girl look. Either way though, I'm not sure what either of them would bring to the table especially if this is a slim pickings game.

Nominations 10x Incineroar

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Ayumi Tachibana

Chance: 0.01%
If Takamaru's still obscure enough to not be upgraded to playable status, then there's little to no hope for this girl. There are many likelier options for a retro newcomer.

Want: 0%
I'm pretty sure I wouldn't be able to play her games even if I had any interest in them.

Canon Bowser/DK/Diddy voices x10

Parabo and Satebo: 0.78%

 

[ShinyRegice]

Ayumi chances: 0.15%
Obscure Japan-only retro who's even more obscure than the already deconfirmed Takamaru. It would be a miracle for her to be considered playable material if the later can't.

Ayumi want: 0%
I don't know her much and I have no interest in seeing her. Easy pass.

Parabo & Satebo prediction: 2.28%

Nominating:
New item: Beast Ball x10

 

[BlueMagician]

Tachibana Ayumi

Chance: 1.5%
The fact that Sakurai considered her briefly doesn't mean much, as she was likely passed over due to a lack of real moveset. She seems like she could (and should) get an Assist Trophy.

Want: 30%
I like her, but I have never considered her a fighter. It'd be fun, though...

Nominations:
Viridi x 10

Predictions
Parabo & Satebo: 0.8%

 

[Artix]

Ayumi Tachibana

Chance: 1.1%
I don't really think they're going to put a character from a Japan-only game in Smash. Besides, Ayumi herself isn't a fighter, she's just a detective. She better off be an Assist Trophy instead.

Want: Abstain
Not familiar with her or the series due to her obscurity. Abstain.

Nominations:
Saber Artoria (Fate) x10

 

[Deleted member]

Ayumi Tachibana
Chance: 0%
Want: abstain

Way too obscure, and the fact she's been briefly considered for Melee iirc doesn't save her either.


Noms:
Female announcer x10

Parabo & Satebo prediction: 0.91%

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Another Literally Who

Chance: 1%
Want: 0%

So Ayumi's actually got a trophy before. And that's it.

She really comes off as another of those "retro-since-we-have-to-have-a-retro-it's-in-the-rules characters. Takamaru was briefly considered as playable, and Sakurai decided against it since his game was never localized. Before Ultimate, he was pegged as the most likely since now Westerners had contact with him. And he's still an assist. Ayumi's had a trophy in Melee and nothing else. She's even more obscure than Tak. So why is this a consideration?

Her design is about as generic as you can get, and she's completely faded into obscurity at this point.

1% since she is first party and Sakurai hasn't broken the "no retro" rule...yet. Otherwise, let's stick to characters who people will know just by looking at them.

Prediction for those two: 2.5%
Nom: FoDx10