Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[A Distant Demon]

Bandana Dee
Want: 60%
I have very little attachment to the character, other than being my favorite of the 3 heroes (Dedede/MK/Dee).

But he's neat and spears are fun

Elma
Well the timing is pretty damn perfect for her. There isnt any other Xenobade competition (Cross isnt a threat since Elma is the main character and Cross is basically everything Robin isnt). Cant say she's a guarantee since Elma has guns and just good timing isnt enough.

Want: 100%
GIMME GIMME.

 

[PSIGuy]

No comments on chances this time.

Bandanna Dee
Want: 10%
I honestly think Kirby representation is perfect as is. 3 reps is about how many characters I'd want for each of Nintendo's medium-to-big franchises. He'd be unique but I have no attachment to him. Then again I haven't played a Kirby game in ages. I'd take him over another Mario or Fire Emblem rep, for what it counts.

Elma
Want: 100%
My most wanted newcomer. X basically expanded on the parts of XB1 I liked (Exploration, setting and world building), gave it a cool sci-fi aesthetic and made even the basic movement fun. Elma isn't an especially interesting character and X's main story was one of it's weaknesses but she has a great design and more importantly would rep X's combat system. Her class is very positioning-reliant and flashy, so I think she'd be pretty popular for her aesthetics and playstyle alone.

Nominations: Xenoblade X Avatar/"Cross" x 5. I'd like to see what people think of another avatar type character. I personally hate 'em and Corrin was the final straw for me despite liking my XBX avatar a lot.

 

[DaUsername]

Banana Waffle Deed
Chance: 75%
I still think his chances are pretty good. He's the most wanted Kirby newcomer pretty much everywhere and he's appeared in nearly every single Kirby game released in the last decade. If we get a new unique Kirby character, it'll be him.
The possibility of us not getting a Kirby newcomer at all is still there, though.
Want: 100%
He's still my second most wanted character.

Abstaining from Elmo.

Dixie prediction: 60%
Isaac prediction: 15%, and a 100% chance of someone spelling his name wrong again
Noms: All stages return x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Bandana Dee

...30% Chance

IMO, he would have been my fourth choice for overrated. Bandana Dee imo just is ok in a lot of regards, which kind of hurts him. Yes he is the fourth Kirby rep, but with slots as limited as they are I do not feel confident Kirby would get a 4th rep. I know Kirby is in a good spot right now. I understand a lot is going well for him. I just feel that we are not getting a kirby rep period. If we rerated Dark Matter or Marx and we rate most other kirby characters in the future, a 1% would be generous from me.

I do not doubt his resume. I feel he makes a lot of sense. But I honestly think he is less likely now than if you asked me two weeks ago.


100% Want

I like the character. One of my closest friends at college likes the character a lot, she is a huge kirby fan. I would be happy if he got in. I just feel that his chances are not too realistic now.

Elma

This is a hard one for me to gauge. I on one hand still feel confident with Rex and Pyra getting into the game. Until SG can give me evidence to believe otherwise I will assume they are referring to the facial animations as the finalized designs. That does not mean I do not feel Elma is impossible. I honestly feel outside of echos, the only two franchises i could justify getting two newcomers would be Donkey Kong and Xenoblade. Timing is weird for her. Her USA release means she likely had little ballot support in the west, but it could also mean her timing is good for sakurai to consider her as a character. Also I am not going into that mech tweet, it could be her but who knows.

Abstain Chance

90% Want

I like X, but I do not like X's story and characters. Elma herself, while cool, is kind of a flat character. That being said character personality does not mean jack in smash, she would be stylish and fun as hell. A small want penalty because as fun as Elma would be it would mean I would have to wait a couple of months for Rex and Pyra to eventually show up as DLC.

Nominating Smash Run x 5

I will end the day and post calcs sometime around midnight. I will tag yesterdays winners, todays winners, and get caught up a little bit.

 

[Smasher 101]

Bandana Dee

Chance: 40%
(No change in score)

If there is a new Kirby character, it will be Bandana Dee. He's the most popular, he's slowly being pushed as the fourth main Kirby character, and Star Allies came too late to help Marx or anyone else. Just depends on whether or not we even get another Kirby rep, which I've never been as confident in as others seem to be. I don't know, I feel like Sakurai might be content with what we have? I just think others might out-prioritize him. He's definitely not out of it though, he's a fairly notable choice at this point.

Want: 60%

I don't know. Kirby is probably my favorite Nintendo series, I've beaten every main game, and I like the character himself. But idk, for some reason I don't really have any need for him. I guess I just always found Kirby/Meta Knight/Dedede to be the only essential ones, and we already have them. And there are in general other characters that just excite me more. Of course he's cute and a deserved choice, and I'd be happy for his fans, but I think I'd just let out a "cool" and move on.

Elma

Chance: 60%
(No change in score)

Rex & Pyra are looking more and more likely to be out of it until DLC rolls around. On the other hand, Elma's chances are still looking good. X's timing is pretty perfect, she's got potential, and Sakurai seems to like the series so I really feel like he's going to add someone else from it. I think her only issue right now is that it's not likely she would have done much in the ballot, but I'm not necessarily expecting every last choice to necessarily be super popular. She has a lot going for otherwise, and I'm actually going to go ahead and predict that she made the cut.

Want: 55%

Like I've said before, I haven't played X or 2 and have no strong want for any character from either, but I at least enjoyed Xenoblade 1 and Shulk so I probably wouldn't be unhappy with a new Xenoblade character. I do like her design, at least.

Dixie Kong prediction: 53.49%
Isaac prediction: 21.52%

Nominations: Tails x5

 

[Zerp]

Bandana Dee
Chances: 50%
This is the highest I've ever thought Bandana Dee's chances have been, Star Allies has been recent, HAL has been promoting the character, Bandana Dee is really popular right now and way above any other Kirby character (although I predict Dark Matter will get a bossfight in the next update of Star Allies and this might spawn some huge bandwagon like Marx did and given that character's popularity in the Kirby fandom I think it might boost Dark Matter close to B.Dee's level, and Magolor + Adeleine, two other popular characters will get reappearances soonish so that might change in the future) but more importantly for Bandana Dee is the Modern Kirby Representation in Smash Ultimate, which seems to have been boosted since Masked Dedede exists now and there's the Return to Dreamland Kirby Dance. Although, I'm still not entirely convinced this means Sakurai would be willing to add a character or is unbiased, he did gun for Great Cave Offensive over a Return to Dreamland stage after all, but given HAL's seeming push for the character, the character's relevance and popularity plus Sakurai seemingly curbing his bias's influence (Which I've always thought was B.Dee's greatest threat, moreso than Dark Matter or anything else) things are looking up from last time, I'd give it a round a coin-flip's chance.

Want: 100%
Bandana Dee is overall my most wanted character, he isn't my favorite nor the character that'd make me the most hype (That'd be Dark Matter) but there are faaarrrr more people wanting Bandana Dee as of now, and I'm weighting my want off of that, his presence would please me greatly by itself but what would really be amazing is everyone else also being happy about it. I've been with the Bandana Dee fans for so long, I want to see them get what they want, more than I want to get stuff myself lol.

Elma
Chances: 26%
Most likely Xenoblade newcomer imo. Her game was around the timeframe Smash 6 should've been drafted and she's decently popular. I think she's going to absolutely happen because of subjective reasons, although, there's no objective reasoning for me to give her a insanely high chance score so I'll just give her 26%.

Want: 10%
I couldn't care less either way. If Elma gets in, cool, if she doesn't, I'm fine.

Predictions: Dixie Kong 56%
Isaac 20%
Nominations: Dragonite x 5

 

[Deleted member]

My top 2 in the same day oh boy!
Bandana dee
Chance 65%
Want 100%
I think hes likely in terms of ballot suggestions for a new kirby rep, timing, and relevance to the series(along with a supposed love from the devs). He is constantly talked about in polls and maybe the most likely kirby newcomer during the time of the 1st project plan for ultimate. Also i find that making him for smash ultimate could be easy(utilize the waddle dee model and add in a bandana and spear, and rigs along with a few animations from kirby/meta knight and than animate the rest).
Its not higher because of 2 things. 1 kirbys representation in smash brothers(while making it more modern kirby), may be enough for no more newcomers. And 2 im unsure if his role in rainbows curse was relevant enough to give him a newcomer spot, or the dev team thinks that his role in robobot/triple deluxe fit him more as it was the most recent role in the timespan of ultimate delelopment. Either or i want him, hes cool, his simple design is awesome, and is beloved by many fans.still dont get why people call him a generic waddle dee, if hal keeps making him a thing well beyond return to dreamland, he obviously isn't considered a generic character to them.
Elma
Chance 75%
Want 100%
Elma is the character i absolutely think will be in smash bros ultimate as a xenoblade rep(base roster). The gun and mech sakurai bought matches up, was absolutely relevant during the final ballot showcase, and is a part of a growing by nintendo and monolith soft. I dont see rex and pyra or any other xenoblade rep getting in pre dlc, since while they were conceptually done around this time(?), there gameplay and mechanics CERTAINLY were not(as much as i want xenoblade 2 to be reped here).
The Only problem i see with elma is with cross as he is the player character, but as many feel who played xenoblade x, elma was the main character of the game as cross was moreso a viewer rather than a participant.

Noms: Klonoa x5

 

[-crump-]

Bandana Dee
Chance: 70%
Popular in all regions, iconic, relevant, and from a series that could use a new rep... Yeah, I think Bandana Dee has a pretty good chance this time around. It all comes down to how well he preformed on the Ballot.
At the very least, if he’s not in base, he’s a lock for DLC.

Want: 20%
I don’t hate the idea, and I feel BD is iconic enough for the roster. However, he would be the opposite of hype for me. I could name a dozen Kirby characters I would much rather see, personally. Would be cool for his fans, though.


Elma
Chance: 35%
The timing is absolutely perfect for this character, with XCX coming out around the same time, and plenty of material ready for Sakurai to use Elma also has a lot of unique moveset potential, which is something we know Sakurai looks for.

My only concern is the limited roster space. We know Sakurai is making the game for fans, and I would think that most of his choices will be characters that preformed well on (you guessed it) the Ballot. Elma, unfortunately, was too late to hop on this train.

Want: 80%
I wasn’t the biggest fan of XCX (it was a cool game but not my style), but Elma was a character I found myself really appreciating. Her fighting style is sooooo badass (dual machine guns and swords), and I love her design. Seeing her in Smash would be amazing, definitely among my most wanteds.

 

[Ultinarok]

Hmmm I have no idea how to calculate chances precisely in my own head...

For now I'll put Bandana Dee at 50%, and Elma at around 70%. I feel Xenoblade is much more likely to have a newcomer due to its recent resurgence and two newest games, with Xenoblade Chronicles 2 being the main reason why I dont think Elma is basically on lock. Bandana Dee is a good candidate, I just don't know how much of a priority Kirby will get in Ultimate.

As far as how much I want them, I'm indifferent to them as Nintendo icons only because I haven't played much of their games (loved Xenoblade 1, but X was kind of an oddity and I didn't play it much), but I'm the type of person who sees someone in Smash and then develops an interest in them and their games after, so I support anyone getting in 100% if its even remotely deserved.

I nominate Isaac as a potential 50% chance, definitely would like to see him too.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

People do remember they can do nominations, we just are on a fixed schedule for a bit right?

 

[Lord-Zero]

Bandanna Waddle Dee
Chance: 11%
- It’s popular. I’ll give it that.

Want: 3%
- I’d rather have Susie but Bandanna Waddle Dee isn’t a bad alternative.

Elma
Chance: 28%
- With the first proposal of the game being done by December 2015, it...boosted her chances over Rex to some degree.

Want: 6%
- She’s neither Rex, Fiora nor Nia.

Predictions
Dixie Kong: 38.5%
Isaac: 9%

Nominations
Katrielle Layton (Professor Layton) x4
Neptune (Neptunia Series) x1

 

[Arcanir]

Bandana Dee
Chance and Want: Abstain

I don't know enough about the character to give a proper rating.

Elma
Chance: 45%
She benefits from timing potentially being on her side. Her game came out in 2015, the exact year where the first project proposal was submitted, which means she was relevant at the time that Sakurai was thinking about the next game and could've been on Sakurai's radar as a result. She also was one of the major protagonists in the game (and arguably the protagonist in terms of the main story) and brings along a unique fighting style that is not represented by any other character. Finally, X has had numerous hints that its story is going to be continued, so the X world is not a one-and-done deal and would likely get future games. Tie that together and you have a character that's recent, may have a future, and is notable from the game she debuted in, which would make her a good choice for Smash if Sakurai was looking for interesting characters that debuted during the 2012-15/16 era.

What hurts her is that we don't know how Xenoblade is going to be treated this time around. It just got its first character last game and we don't know if Sakurai would take a Fire Emblem approach and/or go for Elma on her own merits. Additionally, there's also the chance that Rex/Pyra do get a Greninja situation and out prioritize her (though whether this happens is another question entirely) or they go for Cross for more moveset options. Due to that, she doesn't have a completely straight shot to the roster and could get overlooked for other characters, but she does have good merits and that can easily pull her through.

Want: 85%
I feel Elma would be a great character to add to the roster. Her ability to use both Dual Swords and Dual Guns looks very interesting and I think it would translate very well to the game. Additionally, she also has a Skell, which while I doubt it'd be for anything outside of a Final Smash, would make for a cool attack.

Nominations: Monster Hunter Character x5

 

[Erureido]

Bandana Dee

Chance: 60% --> 60%

I think this chance score is still accurate to me, and the recent news about Smash Ultimate solidifies it at that level. Sakurai seems to be aiming for the more requested picks this time around, and Bandana Dee does have the popularity. On the other hand, the lack of newcomers for this upcoming title makes me want to prevent this score from being too high.

Want: 100% --> 100%

Copy and pasting what I said on Bandana Dee's previous day.

Of course! Spear fighters in Smash would be cool to see, and Bandana Dee is no exception. I feel like his moveset from Return to Dreamland and Star Allies could perfectly translate to Smash.

He is among my most wanted so it'd be pretty cool to see him in Smash as the new Kirby rep.

------

Elma

Chance: 45% --> 50%

The slight increase is because timing does seem to favor Elma this time seeing how the roster was decided at a time when Rex & Pyra's designs weren't finalized yet. For a base roster inclusion, I think she is more likely than the Xenoblade 2 protagonists.

Want: 60% --> 60%

Copy and pasting what I said on Elma's previous day.

I think she'd be pretty cool, but I've got some other characters I'd rather see first.

------

Predictions

Dixie Kong (Donkey Kong): 58.67%

Still pretty likely with her popularity and relevance.

Isaac (Golden Sun): 17.92%

Still feeling pessimistic about this one.

------

Nominations

Only 4-6 newcomers in Smash Ultimate's base roster: x5

 

[DjinnandTonic]

Bandana Dee:

Chance: 90%
As someone who lives in Japan as a teacher and spends most of the time asking children about their favorite things, the idea that anyone on this board thinks of the Kirby franchise as 'small' or 'medium' is hilarious to me.

Japanese children know Kirby. They know Kirby more than Donkey Kong. More than Zelda.

I was playing a card game with them where I used Smash Bros characters. More of them recognized King Dedede and Meta Knight than Link or Wario or the Inklings. None of them knew any of the Fire Emblem characters except for a few kids who went 'Oh they're from Dairantou Smash Bros!'

Kirby is big. Kirby is relevant. If Smash can have 6 Zelda characters and 6 Fire Emblem characters, Kirby can get a fourth member.

Want: 70%
I'm actually not that big of a Kirby fan compared to series like Fire Emblem, Xenoblade, Final Fantasy, and other JRPGs. But I've played the latest ones, and Bandana Dee's Spear moveset is super-fun and I'd love to Spear Copter all over the place in Smash! Certainly I like Bandana Dee more than any other potential Kirby rep. He's cute, wields a unique weapon for Smash, and can do a Spear Copter. Also, he rounds out the 'main heroes' of the Kirby franchise.


Elma:

Chance: 25%

None of the kids knew what a Xenoblade was, even when I told them that Shulk was in Smash. It's not a household name series like Mario, Pokemon, Kirby, or Splatoon. It's certainly more popular than when Shulk made it in, though!

Seeing the big marketing push for XB in recent years makes me think that XB is fairly likely to get a newcomer in Smash, but the WiiU's poor sales hurt XBX's sales, which in turn hurts Elma's chances. I think the most likely scenario is Rex/Pyra as DLC post-release.

Want: 65%

But as a fan of the franchise, I would love to see her representing it with a kickass mecha as a Final Smash! I personally like XBC2's Nia/Dromarch the best for a cool XB rep, but any XB rep would make me happy!

 

[TCT~Phantom]

OK I got a lot to do in the morning so calcs will be late. Tomorrow it is pretty likely that all the rest of the calcs will come out. Sorry for the inconvenience personal stuff has come up this week and I have fallen behind on calculations. I will try to get them done all tomorrow or this weekend. Please rate Dixie Kong and Isaac and predict Rayman and Crash Bandicoot.

 

[EricTheGamerman]

Bandanna Dee

Chance: 70%

Bandanna Dee is one of those few characters who has become quite popular in the past few years, especially in the post Kirby's Return to Dreamland era. Both in terms of his own character in the Kirby franchise, and as a viable Smash candidate. We don't really have a spear user in the roster, and Kirby is Sakurai's other baby. He's one of the few characters with a large fan base who also manages to fulfill the relevancy argument some people seem so hellbent on using. I also feel like there is potential to use other characters as a bit of a base to help build him up with much effort. I see his chances as pretty high.

Want: 90%

Is he my top character I want to be a part of the roster? No, but, he is in my top 10 and I see him as a fun and interesting character to add to the series. I would be very happy to see him make his way in. I do want Marx as a new Kirby representative more in all honesty, but that's such a pipe dream anyway and Bandanna Dee is far from a bad pick, certainly probably the best one for the time being. He's an adorable character from one of Nintendo's bigger franchises, he's definitely someone I want to see in Smash.

Elma

Chance: 40%

Given Sakurai's recent comments on the time frame of the project plans, Xenoblade Chronicles X would have come out around the same time as the development of the Ultimate as a concept, and she certainly has a fan base in addition to Xenoblade growing into a larger part of Nintendo's first party IP lineup. That said, I don't know if Sakurai would have considered her character so soon in the initial plans, if the development of Xenoblade Chronicles 2 would have had any bearing on a decision for characters, and if Sakurai had even really considered a second Xenoblade rep even at the time. Sure, it was a successful game, but successful enough to earn a second rep and a character whose popularity has only really started up in the hype cycle of the new Smash? There is a lot of questions with regards to Xenoblade and Smash that make this very questionable.

Want: 25%-50%

I definitely want another Xenoblade representative since I love the series, but I also only really want them if they can do something more unique with the characters. Thus the variability in my desire for her character. I also don't know if characters from Xenoblade are really iconic enough on their own to justify a place in the roster. Xenoblade is an amazing series of games, but I wouldn't call anyone outside of Shulk as iconic, and that's mostly due to Smash and the unique situation of Operation Rainfall bringing his game over. Beyond that, Xenoblade Chronicles X didn't succeed nearly as well from a narrative perspective. I think she could be cool, but maybe save for a character from Xenoblade Chronicles 2 as DLC. I also just don't have the attachment I do with Shulk to her, so I'm more indifferent.

 

[Strider_Bond00J]

Isaac Want:
Can I borrow your scouter Vegeta? (AKA 100%)
With Ridley added in at long last, Isaac is probably the next character that'd make me super happy. Still holds a place as my number one most wanted character to appear in Smash Bros.

Chance: 20%
...But I'm not gonna make up stuff like he has a guaranteed chance - Problem is, Golden Sun hasn't seen anything at all in recent years - the last thing it got was the divisive Dark Dawn in 2010/2011, and the series has entered this cliffhanger state while Camelot's gone back to making Mario Sports games.

However, I think what might help him might be if he had enough of a strong push in the Ballot that they decided that he would be a good 'ensemble dark horse' inclusion; given that Smash Ultimate's development plan started in 2015. Perhaps if Isaac did well enough, he'd be included on that basis alone, and he definitely has a good moveset to draw from, sword usage not withstanding.

Really, I think it just depends on fan-demand and if they think he'd be a good choice to make playable, despite his franchise being between a rock and a hard place in terms of relevance.

Dixie Kong:

Chance: 75%
One of Dixie's greatest factors is that she's relevant - she's a prominent character in Donkey Kong Country 2, 3 and Tropical Freeze, and she can easily be added with some unique hair-based attacks like what Millia Rage from the Guilty Gear series does. (though I don't expect Dixie to be as crazy or cool as Millia)

Want: 75%
Dixie > K. Rool = Cranky = Funky imo when it comes to DK newcomers. I think she'd be a fun and just as well-deserving inclusion as K. Rool would be, so if she got in as a semi-clone or unique fighter, I would have no objections.

 

[Deleted member]

Dixie Kong
Chance: 75%
Want: 85%

- Was planned as a tag-team partner with Diddy in Brawl
- Has made a breakthrough appearance in Tropical Freeze, which'll get re-released on the Switch
- Can be easily made by modifying 's model.

[...]
My favorite Kong member with Cranky, and also a better throwback to DKC2 for me than Diddy.

I just add that Dixie being an Echo of would be a waste.

Isaac
Chance: 35%
Want: 55%

Haven't played to any Golden Sun game, but he does have a neat gameplay potential.
And I just want these silly Golden Sun vs. Xenoblade debates to end once and for all.


Noms:
Female announcer x5

Rayman prediction: 13.21%
Crash prediction: 17.62%

 

[G-Guy]

Dixie Kong

Chance: 80%
Want: 100%

I am fairly certain about this one, as there isn‘t really much preventing her from joining. Even a potential K Rool reveal does not drop her chances, imo.

Isaac

Chance: 20%
Want: 10%

Never played the golden sun series, so I have no strong feelings for this one. His omission as an AT in smash 4 is strange, but maybe even a sign that Sakurai doesn’t think too highly of this character

 

[NintenRob]

Dixie Kong:
Chance 50%
Could honestly go either way. Her appearance in Tropical Freeze and general popularity and prominence in the DK series definitely. But K Rool is more more popular and we have limited space.
Want 40%
Would rather the Kroc but I accept she should probably be in Smash.

Isaac
Chance 10%
I don't really see it happening. Golden Sun has done pretty much nothing since Smash Wii U and it got less representation in that game, not more. It just seems kinda forgotten
Want 40%
He'd please a lot of people

Prediction
Rayman 17%
Crash Bandicoot 17%

Nominate Parabo and Satebo x3
All Stages returning x2

 

[ZTurtle]

Dixie:
Chance: 80%
I think we can all agree that the DKC franchise is woefully underrepresented in the Smash series, and Dixie seems like a very likely candidate to rectify this. The roster was finalized in 2015, which was around the time Tropical Freeze came out, which of course gave her a major role. Plus, while I heavily disagree that she could be an Echo, she could be a semi-clone to Diddy on the level of Luigi, Falco/Wolf, and Lucas, which would be easier for the devs since they would have Diddy as a base to go off of. Overall, she's a solid choice that I don't think many people would be upset about.

Want: 95%
Like I said, the DKC franchise needs more reps, and Dixie is perfect for that. I may want K. Rool more, but the DKC representation wouldn't feel complete without her. She's the star of DKC3 for crying out loud! Her ponytail attacks would be super fun to use, and I'd love to see her in the game, I feel she makes a great trio with DK and Diddy.

Isaac
Chance: 65%
Not too sure on Isaac tbh, but he's a character that I've heard of many times in Smash circles, despite the age of his games. With the Ballot most likely playing a big role in who gets in, I'd say he's got a shot, since he has a sizable fanbase from what I've seen.

Want: 25%
Can't say that I dislike Isaac, I'm just indifferent. Like Xenoblade Chronicles X, I got Golden Sun on Wii U to see what the hubbub was about, and also to see why people wanted Isaac in Smash so much... and just like XCX, I played it for a bit, kinda liked it, and then put it down indefinitely. Can't say that I would be all that excited to see him, especially since he doesn't stick out to me design-wise honestly. However, like I said, Isaac has a sizable fanbase, and I've seen very passionate requests for him for years. So, if he gets in, how could I be mad? I'd be happy for his fans.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Dixie
Chance: 70%
One of the most unexplainably missing characters, she’s still relevant and incredibly popular. Her inclusion is pretty much a no-brainer, but if Sakurai decides it’s only one DK newcomer she faces competition from K. Rool (who I think she’d easily beat if this game weren’t so fanservice-y)
Want: 99%
She’s iconic, she’s unique, the only reason it’s not 100 is because some people are saying she could be an Echo and if that were to happen I’d feel insulted.

Isaac
Chance: 45%
Let me get this out of the way: for new franchises to be included, Isaac’s only competition is Rhythm Heaven and maybe Advance Wars. He seems like he has it all: massive fan support, which no doubt translates to the ballot, obvious moveset potential (and unique moveset potential at that), a series of critically acclaimed and commercially successful games backing him up. What he doesn’t have is relevance, and that doesn’t seem to matter much given how we’re expecting K. Rool.
At this point I’d say it’s pretty much a coin flip, but I subtracted 5% from that because Sakurai doesn’t seem to give two ****s about him. He got cut as an AT in Smash 4, and while that might be due to 3DS limits, he could have gotten a Trophy, or a Mii Costume, or any acknowledgement. If this is going heavily by fan requests that might not mean anything, but I have to point it out.
Want: 100%
It’s long overdue.

All my nominations go to Ayumi Tachibana.

 

[Parallel_Falchion]

No changes in any of my scores for these two.

Dixie Kong
Chance: 50%
Want: 100%
It's a coin toss as far as I can tell. Will we get her or K. Rool? Both? Neither? I don't know what to predict anymore as far as DK. But I do know she won't be an echo. Semi-clone with some of Diddy's moves, perhaps, but I can't imagine Sakurai putting her in without using her signature hair.

However, if she does get in, I'll honestly be set for this roster. Of course, there are other characters I'd absolutely love to see in, but everyone other than Dixie is basically a pipe dream that I don't consider to actually have a reasonable shot, or is someone that I would like to see in for their own fans despite not being much of one myself (like K. Rool).

Isaac
Chance: 10%
Want: 20%
I don't think he had a very strong ballot presence, but he has appeared in Smash before so he's at least been on Sakurai's radar, and he'd rep a new series. I have no personal attachment, but his design is cool so while I can't say I want him, I wouldn't mind.

Nominate Fire Emblem Three Houses Protagonist x5

 

[harukaamami]

Dixie Kong
Chance: 90%
Want: 80%
By far the most relevant character not in Smash. She headlined her own game and is well-known and easily recognizable.

Isaac
Chance: 0%
Want: 50%
Really don't know why he needed a re-rate. There are quite simply no arguments in favor of his inclusion in Ultimate. Nothing has changed for him, he is a character that hasn't been relevant in way too long from a franchise with no future. His Assist Trophy wasn't seen? That's because it was cut in 4. We haven't seen a single cut AT back in Ultimate. This absence is meaningless. The ballot? I genuinely doubt he placed above Midna, Lyn, Krystal or Waluigi. If they didn't make the jump, why would he? People are greatly overestimating the ballot. Would it help a relevant character? Yes. Would it help someone like Isaac? No.

 

[PsychoIncarnate]

I think it's highly likely that Dixie is going to end up as an echo

Chance: 80%
Want: 90% (This is assuming K Rool gets in, if not I'm not sure what it'd be but I want him in FIRST)
Dixie is actually my favorite Kong. Always play as, or use, Dixie when available in a DKC game. But I want K Rool in first. I do highly expect her as an echo fighter, especially if Diddy's moves were really changed.

Isaac
Chance: 0%
Want: 0%
I played through the Golden Sun series and I just don't remember anything from it. I remember having fun at the time, but there are TONS of moments from other RPG's that I remember vividly. The opera in FF6, 1 shot'ing hat ******* Exor with Geno whirl in Mario RPG, When Squall gets impaled in FF8, Zidane finding out he's some kind of weird fake human thing created by Garland in FF9, the LAUGHING in FF10. etc. Of course that's not why I'm giving him a 0% chance. Whether or not it's hypocritical of me, I just don't see a character from a dead series that underperformed in its final game making it into smash. Especially when he wasn't represented at all in the last game.

 

[Runic_SSB]

Isaac

Chance: 10%
He hasn't had a game in 7 years. There are constantly new kids becoming Nintendo fans playing the latest games, and those kids will have no idea who he is. The longer he goes without a game, the more the requests for other characters will drown out his.

Want: 50%
I think Isaac deserves a spot and he looks like he could have a really cool moveset, but I have no personal investment in him.

Dixie Kong

Chance: 75%
The DK spot is heavily contested, with Dixie, Cranky, Funky and K. Rool all being possible options (and DK Jr, but I seriously doubt it unless he's the retro character). There are arguments for and against all of them, so I think they're all have a relatively equal chance of getting in as normal characters, but Dixie and Funky also have the echo thing going for them.

Want: 20%
I can't, for the life of me, understand why people want her so much. She has no personality and all she can do is the hair helicopter thing.

Crash prediction: 25%

Rayman prediction: 25%

Nominations:
Raiden x5

 

[Nebelung]

Dixie Kong!
Chance: 30%
I feel it is a close toss up between her and K. Rool. I think I give it more in Dixie's favor though, if just because she could potentially semi-clone Diddy easily. And that and she was considered for Brawl right?

Anyway, it's hard to say if we will actually get a D.K. rep. I know we are over-due and they're over-requested but I'm still hesitant. So kinda low.

Want: 55%
She's really cute! I like her. I haven't really.. played her games... but she's neat! Yeah!



Isaac!
Chance: 0%
A bit pessimistic but I don't think it's Isaac's time. It's just... there's other options that fill a similar niche that aren't... uh, dead. I'm sorry Isaac. Let's hope for the assist to come back?

Want: 59%
Honestly this is kind of a thing where I want to make other people happy, plus I think Golden Sun deserves a revival. My friends and even family like Golden Sun and I'm sure they'd appreciate this inclusion a lot! So I would also appreciate it! Plus he is kinda cute!


Noms: Ayumi Tachibana x5

 

[Souldin]

Dixie Kong (Donkey Kong series)
Chance: 85%
I mentioned it before when I talked about Bandanna Dee's chances, but I find Dixie Kong to be one of the most likely newcomer inclusions for SSBU. In fact, I'd rate her as slightly above the others I fit in her bracket of chances... unfortunately due to the slim chance she could be added in as an Echo Fighter. Hopefully that won't be the case if she does appear, be it base or DLC, but ironically that Echo potential does make me think she has slightly better chances than the previously mentioned Bandanna Dee, King K. Rool and Ashley.

Dixie has a ton going for her; legacy, relevancy, popularity and decent move-set potential. She faces stiff competition with a limited newcomer account, but is luckily one of the highly likely ones.

Want: 65%
I do not have any particular love for Dixie, but I do feel she is a deserving candidate for SSB, perhaps even equally so compared to DK villain, King K. Rool. I have many others I prefer, but I'd be happy if she finally got in to have a playable role. She's a Nintendo All-Star whose lacks of appearance, either playable in some way or an Assist Trophy, has seemed strange.

Isaac (Golden Sun series)
Chance: 35%
Isaac has popularity and move-set potential on his side, as well as his series being one worth considering for greater representation in SSB (through playable roles or not). That said, he also suffers from a lack of relevancy; both himself and his series. His omission as an Assist Trophy didn't appear to help his chances last time, which doesn't bode well for him. I also feel, whilst popular, it is not to the same level as to quite a few of the more likely characters.

If there are more newcomers being added to this entry than expected (I'm only expecting 5 more non-Echoes, but will be pleased if the roster count went above 70), then his chances would be a tad stronger, but I feel he might be pushed aside due to stronger competition. Still, Sakurai could always take a shine to him or think or really unique move-set/concept that Isaac could pull off.

Want: 50%
I have no personal interest in the character and have never played any of his games (but would like to someday). That said, I am always a fan of new Nintendo series being represented in SSB; the more, the merrier. There are other series additions I'd prefer, but if Golden Sun gets itself a playable rep, then good on it.

Now I've never done these nominations before, but I'll give it a shot.
NOMINATIONS: x5 for a Project Zero/Fatal Frame Protagonist (it does have a thread, I did make sure and check).

 

[Organization XIII]

Dixie
Chance 40%
She's popular and that's a big plus this time around so it could happen. The only thing is I think that K Rool will "block" her in a sense. I know the potential is there for DK to get 2 newcomers but I think K Rool is the only one from the series getting in Smash.

Want 0%
She's a really boring option in my eyes. There infinitely better characters to pick.

Isaac
Chance 70%
Oh man this game is looking so much better for Isaac. With popularity being big this time around and his massive support during the ballot this is the best chance he's ever had. *reads the other comments on here* Oh I see we are still judging by Smash 4 rules. Oh well, he looks pretty likely and I'm excited to see him make it.
Want 100%

 

[Skyblade12]

Dixie
Chance: 50%
Rating Dixie as a unique fighter, not an AT, I think Dixie would be basically guaranteed... If not for K. Rool. However, with a limited number of newcomers, and with K. rool already getting in for Donkey Kong, I'm not sure that Sakurai would add in Dixie as well.
Want: 50%
Wouldn't object, wouldn't be thrilled. I'm not a huge fan of the Kongs, but she's probably my favorite of them.

Isaac
Chance: 60%
This is tough. Isaac seems to have a lot going his way. The ballot was the last major event before the project plan, and if the polls we've seen from around the world are correct, Isaac was definitely relevant then. He's a popular choice. He has incredibly obvious move set potential. His games sold well overall, and Camelot has expressed a willingness to return to them. He's one of the few new series that Sakurai could add to Smash apart from Splatoon. I can't say he's a shoo-in. But I definitely think he has a solid chance of being one of the next three to four chosen characters.
Want: 100%
Put him in. Please, Sakurai.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

I know it's no longer Bandana Dee's day but I wont' ignore this.

The thing is that the reason a spear would be interesting would be because of how it affects gameplay. Corrin already has attacks that essentially mimic a spear and she has more reach than a stubby-armed Waddle Dee would likely have. I'm not sure what new Bandana Dee would bring by using a spear, when his reach would probably be even less than some of the sword-users.

Pretty sure Bandana Dee's spear extends when attacking in the Kirby games. He has range despite his stubby arms. Also Corrin uses that mimic spear for 5-6 moves and it's not like we can't have more than one spear user anyway.

There are tons of generic enemies that aren't playable. Aside from their more generic counterparts, there is no Goombario/Goombella, no Kooper, no Omega Pirate. I'm not saying they have as good an argument for inclusion, by any means, but there are plenty of Elite Mooks that never become playable. In fact, Bandana Dee would be the first and only Elite Mook added as a fighter. It can definitely still happen, but you can't claim that it has any precedent.

We don't have any elite mooks on the roster yet because none are as significant as Bandana Dee. Atleast when it comes to Smash specualation.

Let me show you the difference between Yoshi and Bandana Dee, from one year after Yoshi's first appearance:

Yoshi also debuted as an ally of Mario and got literally 3 games with his name on them within 3 years of his debut (Yoshi, Yoshi's Cookie and Yoshi's Safari) and then Yoshi's Island a couple years after that. Yoshi had multiple million+ selling starring titles before Smash 64 debuted. Bandana Dee is not Yoshi, they are not even in the same universe, it's ridiculous to act like Yoshi is a precedent for Bandana Dee, just stop.

I think you missed my point. I wasn't arguing that Bandana Dee is just as iconic or popular as Yoshi. I was saying the Yoshis don't differentiate themselves from one another. In Yoshi's island/Story a red Yoshi has the same abilities as a green Yoshi and a blue Yoshi, yet you somehow saw this as an attack on Yoshi's iconicness.

I also don't know where this idea that R.O.B. is something like a generic mook came from unless you think his first appearance in a video game was Brawl. R.O.B. was a physical accessory for the NES and in the two games that used him, he (singular) was the creation of Professor Hector, NOT a generic mook or species. The fact that Sakurai used ROB as a generic mook in the Subspace Emissary does not mean that's what R.O.B. is. He got in as retro/Nintendo history character also, which would not apply to Bandana Dee.

Yeah, I was mainly just talking about R.O.B in the context of Subspace.

All three of these analogies about generic species are horrible bases for saying Bandana Dee is likely. Pokemon, Yoshi and R.O.B. have very different things going for them from Bandana Dee, and much stronger arguments for their inclusions.

So you're saying that despite being members of a species they have enough things going for them to have a playable status? How is Bandana Dee supposed to be an exception?

This I'm just curious about. Link?

Here

And for another, Mario has sold over half a billion games. Mario shouldn't really be treated as analogous to smaller series. Pokemon is similarly just in a different universe in sales numbers. They could make Birdo and Waluigi and Baby Mario and Mallow playable and it wouldn't mean squat about series like Metroid or Kirby.
See, but Mario Galaxy was a tentpole game. The two Mario Galaxy games sold almost half as many copies as the entire Kirby series. Sales aren't everything, but you can't just ignore huge disparities like that. If the Mario Galaxy games weren't Mario games, you'd never even dare to suggest that she was unimportant compared to Bandana Dee.

''Sales aren't important unless when it comes to Mario''
Guess we should fill the roster up with 10 more Mario newcomes. Half a billion sales, right? Also you're right, if Rosalina was a character from an original IP, she would actually be important to her whole franchise. She wasn't when it came to Mario.

Because most of them are multiplayer? Sorry, you just left that one wide open.

You think HAL wouldn't be able to think of a character to replace him in recent games? What was stopping them from having Meta Knight or Dedede or goddamn Gooey be playable in Rainbow curse instead of Bandana Dee.

Melee had far fewer trophies in general and was rushed. Super Mario Galaxy came out about the same time as Brawl, and we didn't get any content from it in Smash until Smash 4.

Well guess we should actually look at the trophy list from Smash 4 to look for newcomers after all. Sorry Geno. Sorry Isaac. You guys are out.

Sure I can. His own series giving him praise is like me telling you that my mom says I'm awesome and using that as evidence. And not everything is about Smash. There's nothing about this that would be nonsensical if he weren't playable in Smash. The argument about game data concerning amiibo is a lot more convincing than the fact that his character description in his own game says nice things about him.

I wouldn't look at this description in the light I do if it wasn't for the timing. The roster was finalized back in 2015. Sakurai wouldn't put in Bandana Dee without HAL knowing about it. This just leads me to beleive HAL knows something we don't.

Most of your "debunkings" on the other hand, are very weak and based around acting like Kirby and Mario/Pokemon are series on equal footing when they're very clearly not.

What does Dee truely have going against him then? It's not the ''generic enemy'' argument again, is it?

 

[JaidynReiman]

Well, two of my favored suggestions!


Dixie Kong

Chance: 55%

There's a lot of things that help Dixie, but K. Rool is definitely way more likely. However, I think its pretty likely we can get BOTH of them. Still, my issue with her is she's too unique to be an Echo Fighter, so that may hurt her a bit.

Want: 80%

I want K. Rool more, but I also really want Dixie as well.


Isaac

Chance: 60%

Oh boy. People aren't going to like this, but frankly the earlier time table and his massive popularity during the ballot period REALLY helps Isaac in my opinion. He's got popularity and incredible moveset potential. And given the timing of when Sakurai was looking at the roster, I think its very likely the ballot will greatly influence the game's roster. I already believed this, but knowing that December project plan only shows me even more that this is going to be the case.

That being said, I can't put him too much higher than 50%. I think he's one of the more likely characters right now, but there's still a lot of things that can go wrong.

Want: 100%

Right behind K. Rool, but I still absolutely want him.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Dixie Kong
Chance: 35%
Likely got overshadowed by King K.Rool in the ballot. That could make her low priority compared to him. I don't think it's impossible to get both however.

Isaac
Chance: 65%
With the ballot actually mattering much more than we thought I can actuallly see him happen. It only a matter of how much the ballot affected the newcomers for this game.

Rayman: 37.37%
Crash: 23.79%

 

[Deleted member]

Dixie Kong want: 25%
I have to admit, my want for her has severly decreased. I like the character, but I just don't see anything unique about her. Granted my only exposure to her in-game was DKC2 and a few levels of Tropical Freeze, but nothing that I saw of her in those games made her stand out to me in terms of uniqueness.
Also, K. Rool is still my preferred DK newcomer. I'm not against getting more than one (because I don't care about reps), but I'm also not really asking for any more.
That said, I wouldn't complain if she got in as she has her fans and she certainly qualifies as a major Nintendo character. It's just not a compelling enough reason for me to support a character.

Isaac want: 85%
Still haven't finished Golden Sun (haven't actually played much since last time and might restart it on my Wii U VC), but I still think he's a great choice with an intriguing moveset. Also, GIMME THOSE GOLDEN SUN REMIXES.
However, much like K. Rool and Bandana Dee, he suffers from a Decidueye syndrome - with limited slots on the roster, the only character I'll be giving a 100% want is Decidueye until he gets confirmed.

Tails x5

 

[NeonBurrito]

Dixie Kong

Chance - 70%

Lots of demand for a Donkey Kong newcomer, she's decently popular, and one big thing she has over K. Rool: she's relevant to boot. She has a lot going for her. Even if Sakurai goes for K. Rool over her, due to how his ballot results were likely much higher than hers, I can pretty easily see her being a semi-clone / echo of Diddy.

Want - 85%

Donkey Kong Country 2 is one of my favorite games of all time, and I'd be more than happy to see her in the game. K. Rool is still by DK character of choice, but I have more than enough DK love to go around. For the love of God though, please don't make her an echo fighter. I can understand her being a semi-clone, but seeing her use a barrel jetpack and a peanut popgun would kill me.

Isaac

Chance - 5%

With the emphasis Ultimate seemingly has on fanservice, I can actually see it happening. Isaac's always been a pretty big request for Smash, so maybe that could help him get over the huge hurdle of being from a dead franchise.

Want - ABSTAIN

I've never touched a Golden Sun game. Considering how he's a rather popular pick, I'd rather leave the want scores to people who actually know more about the guy.

 

[Isaac: Venus Adept]

Dixie Kong- WANT 60%. She's a cool character, Donkey Kong needs more representation and Dixie is a fan favorite. She can be a fun fighter if done right
CHANCES- 70. She has a sizeable and passionate fanbase plus it'll be an easy character for Sakurai's team to make as he can use some assets off Diddy. Also her appearance in DKC TF makes her a more relevant pick.

Isaac- WANT 100% My absolute number one pick for this new game. I believe Isaac has the most moveset potential out of any character and the possibilities of him using his psynergy, djinn and items which can instantly make him a fan favorite character. Smash gave exposure to Xenoblade, Kid Icarus, Fire Emblem and Earthbound and it did wonders for those series getting enough popularity. Golden Sun can have long term benefit from Smash and get the fourth game it deserves.
CHANCES-65% This mostly depends on how well he did on the fighter ballot although he was one of the more popular Nintendo based picks. The only thing I believe that can hold him back is relevancy as Dark Dawn didn't sell as well as the original duology and it's been eight years since that game. Since Sakurai began developing in late 2015, Isaac has less competition as newer characters like Rex or Spring-Man are too recent and the fact that alot of competition like Waluigi, Krystal, Takamaru and Bomberman has been deconfirmed so he can easily make it in as he's been heavily requested since Brawl speculation days. Also his removal as an assist in Smash 4 makes me suspicious if he was planned to be playable but didn't make it on time.

Nom: Chibi-Robo, any Rhythm Heaven character and Andy/Sami

 

[Ferro De Lupe]

Holy ****...this game is still around?

That's a hell of a pleasant surprise. I honestly thought it would have died after Brawl released. *Evil cackle* Time to go through it with a fine-tooth comb and criticize every change that has occurred in the last decade.

Seriously though, kudos to you for keeping it going.

Context: I was the one who ran this game in Brawl's speculation days.

 

[KMDP]

Isaac
WANT: 100%

Isaac is one of the few first party characters I actively want in Smash that isn't already in it. Golden Sun was the first traditional JRPG (not considering Pokémon a 'traditional JRPG' for this argument) that I played (and completed), so naturally it and it's characters hold a special place in my heart.​

CHANCE: 40%

Considering how old Golden Sun is now (the most recent game in the series was released eight years ago), Isaac's only hope is pretty much fan demand (i.e. the ballot), and there are many, many characters that could (and some would argue should) have been voted higher. Supposedly, Golden Sun was very popular in France and Spain, so that might up his chances.​

One can only hope Sakurai, this time, sees the massive potential Isaac has inside him.​

Dixie Kong
WANT: 50%

I'll be honest, I'm mostly indifferent to Dixie Kong and King K. Rool, but that doesn't mean I don't want them. Seeing more characters is always nice, and Dixie Kong has a fair bit of potential.​

Just... don't make her an Echo... just... no...​

CHANCE: 70%

I don't know if it's been talked about, but Dixie was pretty dang popular (for the DKC games) in the 90s, popular enough to get her own title game in Donkey Kong Country (and Land) 3. And she's recently seen a resurgence in Donkey Kong Country Returns: Tropical Freeze, so I'd say the time is ripe (hur hur...) for her to show up in Smash Bros.​

 

[harukaamami]

Anyone who gives Isaac a high score due to the ballot without taking into account that Midna, Krystal, Lyn, Waluigi are all ATs is being silly.

 

[Marcello691]

Dixie Kong

Chance: 75%
I think neither Sakurai nor anyone can ignore the fact that she's one of the few true Nintendo All-stars not playable in smash. Tropical freeze on wiiU came out in February 2014 and it was rereleased as switch port, so she has the relevance and she is popular enough to get many people excited when she's in the game as playable character.

Want: 100%
Dixie has always been my favorite character in the dkc series, she felt really cool and unique at that time to play as!
Anyone who thinks that she could be an echo haven't played her in one of her games. Her hair is her greatest asset and she is also a tad slower and more floaty than diddy. But because they have almost the same build I wouldn't mind it if she gets in as a diddy semi clone, as long as they utilize her hair.
I think dixie and k.rool both deserve a spot and they are long overdue to be honest.

Isaac

Chance: 40%
I honestly don't know how his chances are because he's not relevant anymore( the last game came out for nds and wasn't a big hit saleswise). But he has been an assist trophy in the last smash games, so it would be easy for Sakurai to make him playable now, like he did with little mac.

Want: 60%
Unfortunately I've never played golden sun, but he looks really cool and I think he would be one of the more unique fighters. I would also be really be happy for the fans if he gets in.