Rate Their Chances- Smash Ultimate Day 355: 9-Volt (Wario Ware) and Rundas (Metroid)

Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
6,218
Kyo Kusanagi x150
Amaterasu x132
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x130
Captain Rainbow x127
[Rerate] Micaiah x125
Kratos x123
Rundas x115
Ninten x115
Lara Croft x115

150 - 101

Farmer (Harvest Moon/Story of Seasons) x113
9-Volt x110
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x110
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x105

100 - 51

Aloy x100
Concept: Valve rep x95
Boss: Kracko x95
Blaze the Cat x95
Frogger x85
Glover x85
Noctis Lucis Caelum x80
Sunflower (Plants vs. Zombies) x80
Proto Man x75
[Rerate] Arle Nadja x75
Prince of Persia x70
X (Mega Man) x68
Brian (Quest 64) x60
Concept: Any grass-type starter x60
Papyrus x56
[Rerate] Dovahkiin x55
The Horrible Goose (Untitled Goose Game) x55
Decidueye x53

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Reporter & Wrestler x50
[Rerate] Bandana Dee x40
Thrall (Warcraft) x40
Concept: No more stages beyond the Pass x35
Sol Badguy x30
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x25
Riesz (Mana) x25

Under 25

[Rerate] Heihachi x20
[Rerate] Steve x20
[Rerate] Sora x20
Ryo Hazuki x20
Concept: League of Legends rep x20
Earthworm Jim x17
The Blob (De Blob) x15
[Rerate] Dante x12
Chun-Li x11
[Rerate] Geno x10
Giygas x10
Concept: First-parties after the Fighter Pass x10
King Boo x8
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x8
[Rerate] Quote x7
Urbosa x6
[Rerate] Tetromino x5
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Concept: Lord Fredrik as an Echo of K. Rool x5
Gordon Freeman x5
Akira Howard x5
[Rerate] Lloyd Irving x5
[Rerate] Monokuma x5
[Rerate] Phoenix Wright x5
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x5
Sackboy x5
Monokuma x4
Black Shadow x2

Zhao Yun cuts past Captain Rainbow, but Amaterasu charges past both of them. Ammy rests in second place, with Zhao third and Cpt. Rainbow fourth. Kratos climbs past Ninten and Rundas and ends the day in sixth place. Lara Croft raids the top seven, tying with Ninten and Rundas for that last spot.

Concept: Any grass-type starter, Dovahkiin, and The Horrible Goose cross 50 noms.

Kasumi and Riesz leave the under 25 club.

For today's newcomers we have rerates of Phoenix Wright and Ryu Hayabusa, and also Sackboy, each with 5 noms.
 

Exiliify

Smash Apprentice
Joined
May 16, 2019
Messages
142
If liking a character leads you to believe that they're 100% going to be in no discussion, that's not bias, that's being delusional.
Its one thing to just like a character then believe they are 100% in, thats delusional. Its another to like a character, state actual facts why said character would be included, then say they are 100% based on that, then that is bias. Besides who is to actually judge someone else's rating as bias or delusional?
 
Last edited:

Icedragonadam

Smash Master
Joined
Jul 16, 2014
Messages
3,219
3DS FC
0189-8502-2597
NNID
WitchofKnowledge
Switch FC
SW-5227-6397-6112
Reimu Hakurei needs your donations!

Chance: 45%

Reimu is a definitely an underestimated character. Touhou is the longest running indie series starting back in 1996 with Highly Responsive to Prayer. Touhou is a genre not represented in Smash yet which is Bullet Hell. Touhou is an iconic series in Japan and especially China(a scientist named a flower after Reimu I believe) and she would draw in female gamers(well mainly women outside of Japan as the ratio of Male:Female is less equal in Japan) as well so she would be tapping into two demographics not covered yet(China and women). Her use of her abilities in the main shooting games and the fighting games would provide her a very unique and fun moveset if kept to her roots. I would rate her lower if there was only six DLC characters, but the confirmation of more DLC shot her chances up.

Want: 100%

Oh yes I would love to have her Smash as she's my 2nd most wanted character behind a Tales rep. The most appealing factor of Touhou being represented being the phenominal music in Touhou composed by ZUN and hearing any new remixes ZUN would do.

Nominate Sol Badguy x10

Jin Prediction: 13.11%
 
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
6,218
Its one thing to just like a character then believe they are 100% in, thats delusional. Its another to like a character, state actual facts why said character would be included, then say they are 100% based on that, then that is bias. Besides who is to actually judge someone else's rating as bias or delusional?
Nah, if the facts that you state don't lead to the conclusion, then it's still giving a 100% score purely because they like the character. And sorry to say, but the facts don't support that conclusion, for Reimu or for anyone.
 

Exiliify

Smash Apprentice
Joined
May 16, 2019
Messages
142
Nah, if the facts that you state don't lead to the conclusion, then it's still giving a 100% score purely because they like the character. And sorry to say, but the facts don't support that conclusion, for Reimu or for anyone.
And who is to judge whether the facts or opinions support the conclusion other than the user that posted it? Only the user can say so. The facts stated in neosonic's post and mine is why i think she is 100% in, not just because i like the character.
 
Last edited:

chocolatejr9

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Sep 30, 2018
Messages
494
Abstain on Reimu. I don't know anything about Touhou. Although, if we were to get an Indie rep, I suppose getting a Japanese Indie (or whatever they're called) would be easier than a Western Indie.

Nominations: Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x5
 

DanganZilla5

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Mar 5, 2019
Messages
231
Reimu

Chance and want: Abstaining because I don't know anything about the character or franchise. Although judging from all the arguments she seems to have a decent chance and I would give her a generous want score because her fans always speak so passionately about her and it's about time for an indie character to get a spot on the roster.

Noms: rerate Geno: x5
 
Joined
Jun 22, 2016
Messages
44
Reimu Hakurei, the Red and White Shrine Maiden of Paradise

For as few times as I've posted on Smashboards, I feel I've said quite a bit about Reimu already, and much has been said today as well. I recognize I come from a biased perspective, but so too has everyone above, and I will do my best to remain objective and realistic while explaining my reasoning

Chance: 45%

Touhou has ample qualifications to be added to smash: it kick started a boom of doujin works, gave a human face to bullet hell games, and became a phenomena in its own right. Its characters, music, and world have inspired fans to create more for it than almost any other series. As the central protagonist, Reimu makes the most sense to represent Touhou, and between her danmaku powers and combat abilities from the official cannon fighting games she has ample moveset potential to work with.

Rather than reiterate the same points as others who have an optimistic view of Reimu's chances, as I more or less agree with them, I'd rather challenge one or two arguments against her.

First, popularity. All across the internet, people have gone back and forth on how popular Touhou is. While I think Touhou's perceived nicheness is more a function of the lack of advertising and the internet's tendency towards secluding cliques, I wouldn't presume to provide the definitive answer. Still, I intend to provide some numbers to the discussion. To that end, I'm providing some Google Trends graphs. I'll admit upfront I don't know too much about how Google calculates these, and this method probably isn't without flaws. However, aside from sales figures (which Touhou doesn't have), I know of no other way to quantitatively measure popularity. This is less about finding the "correct" answer per se, more so to shift debate from conjecture and anecdote to something more concrete.


The graphs show interest in a game or game series from 2014 through today. Compared to the other dlc series minus BK, DQ completely eclipses everyone, both in Japan and Worldwide. However, Touhou tracks favorably compared to both KOF and P5, once the release hype died down for the latter. Comparing Touhou to other indie games is another matter. Even after a noticeable drop from 2014, in Japan Touhou still has double the interest of Undertale, while Cave Story and Shantae barely make a mark. Worldwide, Cave Story and Shantae are much the same, and though Undertale entered with a bang and spiked again with the release of Deltarune it has since more or less come to match Touhou. Again, this data isn't the be all end all, but it does seem to show Touhou isn't nearly as obscure as some make it out to be.

Second is if you could even include Reimu at all. Though it's a little outdated, I'd like to refer to Sakurai's criteria as outlined in the Brawl days:

From Source Gaming:

“Manga characters will not join the battle (obviously).​
  1. While it’s true that we’ve added characters from other companies,
It’s not going to be anyone and everyone.
Smash is a game that’s made from everyone’s effort.​
  1. Both companies have to want the character to join the battle.
I need them to let me take charge of the character.​
In order to fit the character into the world of Smash, I need them to allow me some artistic license.​
  1. The character must carry game history with them.
Besides that, it might be something like a courtesy to include a character who has the experience of being on a Nintendo platform.​
Well, Reimu's a game character, so that's a good start; hopefully I and others have shown she isn't just anybody; and Reimu certainly does have a history of games, since 1996. It seems the biggest sticking points are the number 2 and final point. Starting from the latter point, even back when Sakurai said this it seems to come off more as a suggestion than as a hard and fast rule, and since then it's been broken twice by Cloud and then Joker. While both respective parent series had a presence on Nintendo hardware and each made cameo appearances prior to their inclusion in smash, neither's game of origin was featured on a Nintendo system beforehand. Similarly, Reimu has a cameo appearance in Taiko Drum Master for 3ds, and many fan-games featured on the e-shop with an official game on the way. Now, some might say Cloud is a poor example because according to Sakurai he was included based on fan demand, however I feel that's a moot point as a) without knowing the ballot results, it's unclear how requested Touhou characters were
and if you believe the 4chan rumor claiming to know the ballot results, Touhou ranked rather highly
b) Joker still breaks this rule with minimal fan demand, certainly less than Cloud, and c) regardless of his popularity, Cloud was still added in spite of his limited direct connection to Nintendo. I simply do not think Touhou's amount of Nintendo presence invalidates its pedigree and precludes Reimu's inclusion in Smash.

Now, the big one is would both parties agree to Reimu's inclusion. Whether Sakurai would I'll speculate on later, but I'll say that based on the above, Reimu meets the necessary criteria so I think Sakurai and Nintendo could approve Reimu. However, in several people's write-ups I've seen a statement to the effect of "ZUN is anti-corporate, there's no way he'd hand over his creation to a large company like Nintendo." And that's more or less true, ZUN actually worked at Taito on the Pocky and Rocky series but left out of a dislike of work culture and went on to make Touhou, first as a hobby but eventually as his passion project. He very obviously has a great love of the doujin scene and culture, if he didn't he wouldn't encourage people to take inspiration from his own work. And honestly, the thought that ZUN would simply turn down an offer to include Reimu in smash does haunt me from time to time. However, as of late he seems to have pivoted somewhat. As stated above, he allowed Bandai Namco to use three of his characters in Taiko Drum Master on the 3ds and more Touhou songs are included on the Switch TDM, in fact Touhou songs are surprisingly common across a smattering of rhythm titles; Touhou 15.5 AoCF is to be ported to the Switch and PS4, and its predecessor 14.5 ULiL was ported to the PS4 in Japan; beyond that, Touhou 12.8-17 minus 13.5 and 14.5 are available worldwide on Steam; fan games as well are expressly allowed on the aforementioned platforms; and he also allowed not one but two mobile gacha games, a move a younger ZUN would have decried, and in so doing entrusted his IP to the likes of Aniplex and the Good Smile company.

But the most interesting and relevant tidbit is this: in an interview about the inclusion of Touhou music in the 3ds remaster of Jam with the Band during March 2016, ZUN said:
in Japanese, please excuse the mechanical translation:

I've been making games for a long time, but I can't sleep with Nintendo in Kyoto. Nintendo isn't a place where people like me can enter. It's more like an indie. vandalism and location I'm not do there is a good foundation down the things that amateur of human beings have been developed until now. When you do so Well, in the future ... Well, it would be great if I could talk to Nintendo. It was today’s broadcast that made me feel that dream. I want to make friends with Nintendo.
The gist of it is while ZUN wouldn't be comfortable working at Nintendo, he's not only willing to work with them going forward but has an active interest in it. I think adding Reimu to smash falls under that. Furthermore, in letting Reimu be in smash, I think ZUN would be reassured that rather than a nebulous company handling Reimu he would be entrusting her to Sakurai, one of the industries most respected developers.
There is also a rumor that ZUN and Sakurai are drinking buddies, but I have been unable to find a source and think it's almost positively an unsubstantiated rumor, thought I should quash that now in case someone brought it up later

For Sakurai's part, I think it's a reasonable assumption that a guy like Sakurai who's in touch with the gaming landscape wouldn't have at least heard of Touhou; while shmups are said to be formative for Sakurai as a designer, I've seen no evidence he's played a Touhou game, but still it's probable he's somewhat familiar. IF Nintendo gave him the option, I think he'd jump at the opportunity to include a fighter that looks and plays like no one on the roster.

I think the biggest obstacle in Reimu's way isn't her exposure or presence on Nintendo, it's corporate reciprocity. Ultimately, Touhou is at best a middling size fish all alone in a vast sea filled with enormous schools of fish. When Nintendo includes a character from a major publisher in smash, the publisher can respond in kind by including many of its IPs on Nintendo hardware, not one series alone; this way, both companies benefit twice over. Touhou can't respond in quite the same way, with a comparatively limited pool of games that lack the marketing push of AAA games or even western indies (it should be noted Nintendo directs are pay to enter affairs). But even then, there's a silver lining: what Touhou does have is dedicated fans. While, as has hopefully been demonstrated here and elsewhere, there is crossover between Smash and Touhou, the two fandoms remain mostly separate. However, this may been seen as an advantage: one of the goals Nintendo President Furukawa has for the switch and smash is to broaden their market by appealing to people outside the core base. Including Reimu in smash would further this by bringing in more switch sales, more smash sales, and more dlc purchases.

In any case, I think Reimu is one viable choice of many, and I can't tell you how gratifying it is for the greater smash community to start coming around on her as a real possibility.

Want: 99.9%

Touhou means a lot to me. A LOT. I love the characters, the games, and especially the music. Yes I have other interests, but Touhou is a constant reassurance for me and has provided a great sense of community with fellow fans. I would love to share Touhou through Smash to those who might not consider it otherwise. And even if for whatever reason you don't like Reimu, I think you'd like the music she'd bring with her.

My only reservation for not giving a 100 want is because I'd rather Marisa be included.
 

FrozenRoy

Smash Lord
Joined
Apr 26, 2007
Messages
1,081
Location
Las Vegas, Nevada
Reimu Hakurei

Chances: 38%

As far as indie characters go, Reimu has one of the largest fanbases possible and a lot of history, which is a big plus for her. The real question is if an indie-style character will get in, to which my general reply is "It seems possible, but not necessarily probable", so I'm giving Reimu an under-50% chance but still solid. Some people will say she doesn't have a huge western fanbase, but Touhou has been extremely internet popular for a long time, and it seems likely a lot of westerners already purchased the DLC pass for characters like Banjo and Joker, plus Terry has an American look, so I don't think they'd be too worried about it not being super western anyway. There is somewhat of an issue of if ZUN would be willing but given ZUN has put Reimu in multiple fighters from him + Tasofro, I feel like it would be unlikely to be an issue. Moveset potential is very strong.

Want: 100%

I've been a Touhou fan for over a decade at this point, it's a wonderful and expansive franchise with a ton of fan material and fun if very challenging games. My most wanted would be Utsuho, but there's no way we'd get anyone but Reimu or maybe Marisa, and I really like both of them anyway so.
 

Nquoid

Smash Ace
Joined
May 21, 2019
Messages
580
And who is to judge whether the facts or opinions support the conclusion other than the user that posted it? Only the user can say so. The facts stated in neosonic's post and mine is why i think she is 100% in, not just because i like the character.
You're more than entitled to give them 100% chance score, but you have to realise its a very rare score not often given out, because you are saying that you think Reimu is a lock for Smash. Obviously only you know the time frame you're working on. But its a bold claim.

Obviously I have given the lowest scores in the thread, so I'm sure you already want to reject my opinion, but there have been some great posts from people who think Reimu's chances are a hell of a lot higher than I do. But also 0% scores are a lot more common in this thread (just look at the last two days of characters), so I'm going to get less flack at the other end of the scale.

Whereas the two 100% chance scores are absolutely ignoring evidence against Reimu and do seem to be conflating want with chance. Within both posts theres a lot of handwaving things away and lack of factual information. But as you say, it is entirely your perogative, but maybe temper those expectations so you don't end up disappointed?
 
Last edited:

DanganZilla5

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Mar 5, 2019
Messages
231
I'm gonna jump in for a moment and say that I think a character not having a decent presence in the west is not much of a hurdle for them. Takamaru was practically unknown in the west and yet he got an assist trophy in Smash 4 and Ultimate. Yes, he is a first-party character, but still, an assist trophy is probably the second best role only behind playable status (maybe competing with Mii costumes in that regard and he does also have a mii costume). Not to mention Sakurai did state he considered Takamaru for Melee and Smash 4 (https://www.ssbwiki.com/Takamaru), albeit with a low chance. Speaking of Melee, Roy and Marth were added despite being relatively unknown as well in the west.

The point being, Nintendo is a japanese-based company. They do listen to foreign fans of course, as we got characters like Cloud, Banjo, and Terry (who is very popular in Latin America for those who didn't know). However, all of the characters in the roster except four were made by a japanese company. So I don't think the 'unknown in west' argument is valid enough to discredit a character.
 
Last edited:

Connorb0t2

Smash Master
Joined
Sep 7, 2018
Messages
4,421
Location
Under the pipes beneath peach’s castle
Switch FC
SW 3314-3608-8898
You're more than entitled to give them 100% chance score, but you have to realise its a very rare score not often given out, because you are saying that you think Reimu is a lock for Smash. Obviously only you know the time frame you're working on. But its a bold claim.

Obviously I have given the lowest scores in the thread, so I'm sure you already want to reject my opinion, but there have been some great posts from people who think Reimu's chances are a hell of a lot higher than I do. But also 0% scores are a lot more common in this thread (just look at the last two days of characters), so I'm going to get less flack at the other end of the scale.

Whereas the two 100% chance scores are absolutely ignoring evidence against Reimu and do seem to be conflating want with chance. Within both posts theres a lot of handwaving things away and lack of factual information. But as you say, it is entirely your perogative, but maybe temper those expectations so you don't end up disappointed?
This

Let’s say it’s doomguys turn to be in the rare their chances thread. doom has stuff going for him but I wouldn’t call him a 100% percent or a lock I would just give him a 60%. who knows where The stuff supporting him might end up?

As for remius chances

Chance:0%
I really don’t see her happening like...unknown in the West,none of here games on a Nintendo platform(that one on the eshop is just a fan game),no localization yet(if it happens then it doesn’t mean Touhou is guaranteed look what happened to overwatch switch did it guarantee a overwatch character?)

Want:0%
really not interested in the game.

Sorry if I came out all rude I’m just sharing my thoughts about her chances.

And if an indie were to join the fight I personally see it being shantae.
 
Last edited:

Nquoid

Smash Ace
Joined
May 21, 2019
Messages
580
I'm gonna jump in for a moment and say that I think a character not having a decent presence in the west is not much of a hurdle for them. Takamaru was practically unknown in the west and yet he got an assist trophy in Smash 4 and Ultimate. Yes, he is a first-party character, but still, an assist trophy is probably the second best role only behind playable status (maybe competing with Mii costumes in that regard and he does also have a mii costume). Not to mention Sakurai did state he considered Takamaru for Melee and Smash 4 (https://www.ssbwiki.com/Takamaru), albeit with a low chance. Speaking of Melee, Roy and Marth were added despite being relatively unknown as well in the west.

The point being, Nintendo is a japanese-based company. They do listen to foreign fans of course, as we got characters like Cloud, Banjo, and Terry (who is very popular in Latin America for those who didn't know). However, all of the characters in the roster except four were made by a japanese company. So I don't think the 'unknown in west' argument is valid enough to discredit a character.
Thing is Smash has sold 14.73 million copies so far according to June earnings, 3,279,652 of those sales from Japan according to Media Create, so about 22% of all copies. Do we really think Nintendo are going to rely on a region that is only a quarter of their total player base to shoulder all of that slack? Especially considering the games aren't out officially in the West. It's certainly not impossible, but it would be the most Japan centric character being playable in almost 20 years. (And only because Lucas is from a series the west got to play unlike Fire Emblem). And for DLC that is a far riskier move than base game.
 
Last edited:

DanganZilla5

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Mar 5, 2019
Messages
231
Thing is Smash has sold 14.73 million copies so far according to June earnings, 3,279,652 of those sales from Japan according to Media Create, so about 22% of all copies. Do we really think Nintendo are going to rely on a region that is only a quarter of their total player base to shoulder all of that slack? Especially considering the games aren't out officially in the West. It's certainly not impossible, but it would be the most Japan centric character being playable in almost 20 years. (And only because Lucas is from a series the west got to play unlike Fire Emblem). And for DLC that is a far riskier move than base game.
Good point. I did not see that Japan makes up only 22% of all copies. Can you share the link so I can look at sales from other countries?
 

TheTuninator

Smash Champion
Joined
Feb 25, 2013
Messages
2,007
DLC isn't the time to take risks, Nintendo & Sakurai learned that with SSB4.
Reimu's not much of a risk when it comes to DLC. Nobody in the West knows Dragon Quest, but everyone still (presumably) bought Hero because he looks cool and has interesting mechanics. Reimu's got great character design and plenty of moveset potential, so I doubt there'd be any trouble selling her to people who aren't familiar with the series, especially when female characters are still very much so the minority.

I'm of the mind that Nintendo could get away with pretty much anyone as DLC, though. Smash is a self-perpetuating hype machine at this point, and as long as there's a dedicated cult core of fans for whoever the rep is to spark the initial hype, you're good to go.
 

TheTuninator

Smash Champion
Joined
Feb 25, 2013
Messages
2,007
How would you know that? Sure, people online complain a lot about Corrin, but we have no idea how well they sold. Or any of the DLC characters in 4, for that matter.
I would imagine Corrin sold quite well. People have always loved Fire Emblem characters, no matter how many complaints we see about them online.
 
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
6,218
I'm gonna jump in for a moment and say that I think a character not having a decent presence in the west is not much of a hurdle for them. Takamaru was practically unknown in the west and yet he got an assist trophy in Smash 4 and Ultimate. Yes, he is a first-party character, but still, an assist trophy is probably the second best role only behind playable status (maybe competing with Mii costumes in that regard and he does also have a mii costume). Not to mention Sakurai did state he considered Takamaru for Melee and Smash 4 (https://www.ssbwiki.com/Takamaru), albeit with a low chance. Speaking of Melee, Roy and Marth were added despite being relatively unknown as well in the west.

The point being, Nintendo is a japanese-based company. They do listen to foreign fans of course, as we got characters like Cloud, Banjo, and Terry (who is very popular in Latin America for those who didn't know). However, all of the characters in the roster except four were made by a japanese company. So I don't think the 'unknown in west' argument is valid enough to discredit a character.
To be fair, Takamaru is a very great example against the point you're trying to make, given how Sakurai said he would've been in of it wasn't for obscurity in the West.
 

NobleClamtasm

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Oct 1, 2013
Messages
297
Thing is Smash has sold 14.73 million copies so far according to June earnings, 3,279,652 of those sales from Japan according to Media Create, so about 22% of all copies. Do we really think Nintendo are going to rely on a region that is only a quarter of their total player base to shoulder all of that slack? Especially considering the games aren't out officially in the West. It's certainly not impossible, but it would be the most Japan centric character being playable in almost 20 years. (And only because Lucas is from a series the west got to play unlike Fire Emblem). And for DLC that is a far riskier move than base game.
See, you're operating under the assumption that Touhou has failed as a franchise in the west, which is completely false. It's unfair to directly compare Touhou with other game series with typical parameters like sales numbers, review scores or GOTY awards due to the very nature of the franchise. Touhou is the purest form of indie you can get. It's a series made by a single drunkard in his basement. Touhou gets extremely little marketing because it has no giant corporation to fund it. Touhou spreads quite literally through word of mouth alone and through the efforts of the fandom. The fact that it remains popular to this day from is an impressive feat and is what makes it stand out.

Touhou has 100% penetrated into the west. The fact that you see people supporting her inclusion on this website is proof of this. In Japan, it is well-known that Touhou has a western audience. Images of western cosplayers circulate there. ZUN himself has been to many conventions in America and hosted panels with booked attendance. The existence of Undertale also supports this, with Toby openly saying that Touhou was a major inspiration on his work. The fact that there's western fans at all considering the circumstances is really a testament to what a legendary franchise it is.

You also make another incorrect assumption in that people will only purchase character if its someone they recognize, and I believe that this is your bias speaking. Sure, Touhou niche. There's no doubt about it. But niche franchises definitely have a place in Smash, especially those with the history and legacy to back them up. With the current "waifu" trend on the internet, to say that westerners would have no interest or outright refuse to purchase a cute girl character is horribly out of touch. I get the she doesn't appeal to you personally, but there is a market out there that eats this stuff up.

All in all, I do agree that Reimu has quite a mountain to climb in regards to her chances. But to put so much backing on western appeal is ridiculous, considering Terry and Hero are already DLC. And before you say that DQ and SNK have a presence in the west, let me ask you this: why did Sakurai choose DQ and SNK reps? It's not because of their lukewarm popularity in America, I'll tell you that much. It's because DQ and KoF are both legendary franchises in their own respective niche. Touhou covers a completely different niche.
 
Last edited:

TheTuninator

Smash Champion
Joined
Feb 25, 2013
Messages
2,007
The Touhou subreddit has around 40,000 subscribers, which, while absolutely small when compared to truly large ones, is still fairly substantial. The series' Western following is very much a cult one, to be sure, but it's real.
 

Nquoid

Smash Ace
Joined
May 21, 2019
Messages
580
See, you're operating under the assumption that Touhou has failed as a franchise in the west, which is completely false. It's unfair to directly compare Touhou with other game series with typical parameters like sales numbers, review scores or GOTY awards due to the very nature of the franchise. Touhou is the purest form of indie you can get. It's a series made by a single drunkard in his basement. Touhou gets extremely little marketing because it has no giant corporation to fund it. Touhou spreads quite literally through word of mouth alone and through the efforts of the fandom. The fact that it remains popular to this day from is an impressive feat and is what makes it stand out.

Touhou has 100% penetrated into the west. The fact that you see people supporting her inclusion on this website is proof of this. In Japan, it is well-known that Touhou has a western audience. Images of western cosplayers circulate there. ZUN himself has been to many conventions in America and hosted panels with booked attendance. The existence of Undertale also supports this, with Toby openly saying that Touhou was a major inspiration on his work. The fact that there's western fans at all considering the circumstances is really a testament to what a legendary franchise it is.

You also make another incorrect assumption in that people will only purchase character if its someone they recognize, and I believe that this is your bias speaking. Sure, Touhou niche. There's no doubt about it. But niche franchises definitely have a place in Smash, especially those with the history and legacy to back them up. With the current "waifu" trend on the internet, to say that westerners would have no interest or outright refuse to purchase a cute girl character is horribly out of touch. I get the she doesn't appeal to you personally, but there is a market out there that eats this stuff up.

All in all, I do agree that Reimu has quite a mountain to climb in regards to her chances. But to put so much backing on western appeal is ridiculous, considering Terry and Hero are already DLC. And before you say that DQ and SNK have a presence in the west, let me ask you this: why did Sakurai choose DQ and SNK reps? It's not because of their lukewarm popularity in America, I'll tell you that much. It's because DQ and KoF are both legendary franchises in their own respective niche. Touhou covers a completely different niche.
Okay, we're just going to have to agree to disagree here. I have no evidence that Touhou has the footprint in the US that has been claimed. You say to ignore things like reviews and awards (sales I completely understand), but if Touhou is this grand artifact why isn't it discussed more in gaming spaces? Why do I only run into this franchise in Smash speculation?

Its pretty apparent we run in different circles, and the deeper I've gone into my research on Touhou, the more apparent how many tangential run ins I've had from the franchise like the McRoll and Scott Pilgrim and Undertale. But none of those have left an impact in terms of my knowledge

I don't want to disparage the fanbase at all, what they've done is incredible and what Zun has done is incredible. The fact that people in the west know about it is a feat. But I do think saying its "penetrated" the West is a little strong. When discussing the Japanese sales of Smash as a proportion, I was going to round up to 25% to allow for Western base of about half a million people, which is nothing to sniff at. But every number i've seen that sort of tracks Western Touhou fandom from the 40,000 people on reddit to the ~20,000 sales on steam for most games says that might be an inflated number.

And you're right she doesn't appeal to me personally, and I can tell a lot of people viewing this thread think i'm dead wrong. But the thing is, when i'm shown something that i don't understand the appeal of i try to see it. I've watched a lot of Touhou stuff recently and read a lot and watched documentarys and I've yet to see anything that convinces me that shes more than an import curio who has a truly dedicated fanbase that is very good at amplifying their voice over here. Japan is obviously a completley different matter.

At the end of the day we are both coming here from our personal experiences and i have done my level best to get a grasp on Touhou in the West and i've come away with the understanding that its small and niche. But also deeply dedicated with a great perseverance to keep the franchise relevant this long. I just doubt that their chutzpah is enough to get into Smash this speculation cycle.

I probably won't respond to replies to this just becuase I'm sure I'll get a load "wow so biased get out of your bubble" comments and having a "my bubble is more relevant than your bubble" argument seems exhausting.

Peace and love (sorry for any spelling errors)
 
Last edited:
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
6,218
At the same time, Sakurai has also stated that if he had known that Mother 3 would never be localized, he wouldn't have included Lucas, despite the massive cult following Mother has in the West, so maybe non-localization is a bigger deal than we're thinking.

It's weird, because on one hand Touhou absolutely has made an impact in the West without those, but on the other hand, without stuff like sales numbers and the like there's no way of proving or quantifying it and its extent.

Honestly, who knows what Sakurai would think of this particular topic? Takamaru and Lucas are good leads, so I'd lean towards it at the very least hurting. Can anyone think of a counterpoint?
 

TheTuninator

Smash Champion
Joined
Feb 25, 2013
Messages
2,007
For what it's worth, I don't think saying that something has "penetrated" into the West in any way implies that it's mainstream, just that it's got a fanbase, which Touhou certainly does. With the peak meme era over, you'll mostly run into it over here in communities adjacent to some form of Japanese media, whether that be anime, games, idol stuff, what have you.

At the same time, Sakurai has also stated that if he had known that Mother 3 would never be localized, he wouldn't have included Lucas, despite the massive cult following Mother has in the West, so maybe non-localization is a bigger deal than we're thinking.

It's weird, because on one hand Touhou absolutely has made an impact in the West without those, but on the other hand, without stuff like sales numbers and the like there's no way of proving or quantifying it and its extent.

Honestly, who knows what Sakurai would think of this particular topic? Takamaru and Lucas are good leads, so I'd lean towards it at the very least hurting. Can anyone think of a counterpoint?
Touhou 15.5, Antimony of Common Flowers, is officially getting a Switch release (presumably including its existing official English translation), so that moots this as an issue.
 
Last edited:
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
6,218
Touhou 15.5, Antimony of Common Flowers, is officially getting a Switch release (presumably including its existing official English translation), so that moots this as an issue.
I don't think it necessarily does. Remember, the issue here isn't the series never being officially localized, but whether it remains obscure in the West despite that. The Mysterious Murasame castle was released stateside, along with Takamaru's Ninja Castle on Nintendo Land, yet that wasn't enough for Sakurai.

With Antinomy of the Common Flowers being a fighting game rather than a mainline title, that also poses an interesting caveat.

Though I wonder if it's even fair to expect official localizations for a mainly fan-driven franchise, and what Sakurai's stance is on the matter.
 

TCT~Phantom

Smash Champion
Joined
Dec 10, 2013
Messages
2,283
NNID
TCT~Phantom
You're more than entitled to give them 100% chance score, but you have to realise its a very rare score not often given out, because you are saying that you think Reimu is a lock for Smash. Obviously only you know the time frame you're working on. But its a bold claim.

Obviously I have given the lowest scores in the thread, so I'm sure you already want to reject my opinion, but there have been some great posts from people who think Reimu's chances are a hell of a lot higher than I do. But also 0% scores are a lot more common in this thread (just look at the last two days of characters), so I'm going to get less flack at the other end of the scale.

Whereas the two 100% chance scores are absolutely ignoring evidence against Reimu and do seem to be conflating want with chance. Within both posts theres a lot of handwaving things away and lack of factual information. But as you say, it is entirely your perogative, but maybe temper those expectations so you don't end up disappointed?
To be fair 0% scores are common since as of now people really only view a small handful of characters as likely. Even in base game low scores were the rule not the exception. Not every character is a Ridley or a Geno and generates a lot of discussion and has mixed views of likelihood. Not everyone is a K Rool or Palutena and has a resume that makes them look likely. Not everyone is leaked like Hero or Simon. The average character doesn’t break 20% in this thread especially after the game came out.
 

Ninjaed

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Nov 7, 2018
Messages
255
Touhou remains to this day inexistent on Nintendo consoles. There may be a future release announced but that's "after the fact". That's what hurts it the most.

Also, remember that it's Nintendo who's called the shots this time. Sakurai's stance may matter but he still has to choose from a given list. It seems to be a bit of a stretch to assume Nintendo would handpick an indie franchise that's never been on any of its consoles and hardly ever released outside of Japan. Especially since what people know it for isn't even the gameplay component.

Even if Touhou has spread quite a bit, has a dedicated fanbase, etc... it's still quite the massive hurdle it has to overcome.
 

Rikarte

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Jan 4, 2019
Messages
286
Location
Germany
At the same time, Sakurai has also stated that if he had known that Mother 3 would never be localized, he wouldn't have included Lucas, despite the massive cult following Mother has in the West, so maybe non-localization is a bigger deal than we're thinking.

It's weird, because on one hand Touhou absolutely has made an impact in the West without those, but on the other hand, without stuff like sales numbers and the like there's no way of proving or quantifying it and its extent.

Honestly, who knows what Sakurai would think of this particular topic? Takamaru and Lucas are good leads, so I'd lean towards it at the very least hurting. Can anyone think of a counterpoint?
The only thing I could think of is that Touhou is as indie as you can get. You have one man doing all the programing, drawing, writing and composing. Expecting him to do translations of his games would simply be too much to ask (especially since ZUN doesn't speak English) and letting other people do the work would simply take away this pure indie-ness (can't find a better word, apologies)
I can totally see Sakurai/Nintendo understanding and respecting this.
 
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
6,218
Touhou remains to this day inexistent on Nintendo consoles. There may be a future release announced but that's "after the fact". That's what hurts it the most.

Also, remember that it's Nintendo who's called the shots this time. Sakurai's stance may matter but he still has to choose from a given list. It seems to be a bit of a stretch to assume Nintendo would handpick an indie franchise that's never been on any of its consoles and hardly ever released outside of Japan. Especially since what people know it for isn't even the gameplay component.

Even if Touhou has spread quite a bit, has a dedicated fanbase, etc... it's still quite the massive hurdle it has to overcome.
Touhou already has a game announced for Switch.
 

TheTuninator

Smash Champion
Joined
Feb 25, 2013
Messages
2,007
Touhou remains to this day inexistent on Nintendo consoles. There may be a future release announced but that's "after the fact". That's what hurts it the most.

Also, remember that it's Nintendo who's called the shots this time. Sakurai's stance may matter but he still has to choose from a given list. It seems to be a bit of a stretch to assume Nintendo would handpick an indie franchise that's never been on any of its consoles and hardly ever released outside of Japan. Especially since what people know it for isn't even the gameplay component.

Even if Touhou has spread quite a bit, has a dedicated fanbase, etc... it's still quite the massive hurdle it has to overcome.
Besides AoCF, Touhou has multiple fan-made games available on Switch right now.
 

Kotor

Luminary Uppercut!
Joined
Mar 8, 2014
Messages
2,725
I’ll do my ratings later, to give a spoiler I am not in the 100% camp. Right now though I actually could see Reimu happening and my FP gut guess would be something like this.

Crash
Spyro
Jill/Leon/Chris/Claire
Doomguy
Reimu
Heihatchi
Lloyd
Phoenix Wright
Geno
Steve
Tracer
Edelgard
Dimitri
Claude
Bandana Dee
Rex
Waluigi

Off the top of my head these are a few I would give 20+% to. Some like Crash, Resident Evil, and Lloyd I am very confident in. Others not as much.
Out of curiosity, what made you exclude Byleth?
 

Connorb0t2

Smash Master
Joined
Sep 7, 2018
Messages
4,421
Location
Under the pipes beneath peach’s castle
Switch FC
SW 3314-3608-8898
Touhou 15.5, Antimony of Common Flowers, is officially getting a Switch release (presumably including its existing official English translation), so that moots this as an issue.
Huh looks like there is a switch port coming.

But like I said
if it happens then it doesn’t mean Touhou is guaranteed look what happened to overwatch switch did it guarantee a overwatch character?
 

Wunderwaft

Smash Lord
Joined
Mar 21, 2019
Messages
1,862
This has to be the most interesting character we've rated for a while, I mean how long has it been since we've had a lengthy debate like this? We're seeing a lot of high scores and low scores, so it's clear that there are different opinions on Reimu's chances besides an overwhelming majority agreeing on the same thing as what happens usually in this thread. It's hard to deny the legacy that Touhou spawned but it's possible to argue on how niche the series is outside of Japan.

In my opinion I believe that if Undertale managed to get some representation in Smash then at the very least Touhou is a topic that has crossed Nintendo and Sakurai's mind. Will it happen? We don't know. But is it possible? I certainly thinks so.
 
Top