Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[?!?!?!]

Isaac:

Chance: 65%
He's been a highly requested character since the brawl days, and based on what we know he was also vastly popular on the ballot. No official results show it, but based on fan polls and such he is probably one of the top 3 remaining newcomer choices after the (de)confirmed ones. Sakurai's tweet also looks a lot like a GS reference, but there is also the possibility that it isn't which is why I think 65% is a safe guess.

Want: 100%
Golden Sun was a huge part of my childhood, and I've played GS 1-2 several times in the past few years. I've been rooting for Isaac since the brawl days and I truly think he and Geno are the most overdue smash characters, in terms of popularity and the longtime fan support.

Felix:

Chance: 20%
Of course this depends on whether Isaac is in or not. I can see Sakurai adding Felix as an echo to cater to GS:TLA fans, and there is usually a debate on who the better protagonist between Isaac and Felix is. However, there are not nearly as many people who know Felix compared to Isaac (from the smash fanbase at least) so I don't see this as very likely.

Want: 99%
Felix and Isaac are both great characters, and I would love to see either of them get represented in smash as a playable character. I just simply prefer Isaac over Felix, hence the 1% difference lol

 

[MacDaddyNook]

Isaac

Chance: 40%
He has decent popularity but his series has been dormant for a while. The ballot is his best chance.

Want: 50%
He's a decent choice, but not on my most-wanted list. I'd be just as happy to get him back as an AT as I would for him playable.

-----

Felix
Chance: 5%
I don't see them pulling a Richter and bringing in both a newcomer and echo simultaneously all that much. He doesn't have the fan demand to back him up either.

Want: 50%
In an either/or case, I'd be ok with him in. Not interested in an echo though, I hope they keep those to a minimum.

 

[JaidynReiman]

Isaac

Chance: 75%

I absolutely understand this isn't going to be a popular opinion, but I'm really optimistic about Isaac right now. I have been since well before E3, but the evidence keeps reinforcing what I've been speculating all along. This is just purely based on the ballot, not leaks, rumors, or alleged teases like the Rathalos pic.

Isaac has been a popular suggestion since Brawl. I first heard about Isaac and Golden Sun through Brawl speculation, and I barely even paid attention to speculation back then. During the ballot especially he did very well, ranking very high in most major online polls. No, I don't think being a little lower in PushDustin's Japan poll would make Sakurai ignore Isaac. That's just a stupid argument IMO.


Want: 100%

What can I say? I've grown to love Golden Sun over the years. I first heard about it through Brawl speculation, as mentioned above, and playing them, they're really great games and remind me a lot of my favorite JRPG of all time, Lufia 2 in the way they're traditional turn-based RPG's but also with a huge emphasis on solving puzzles in dungeons.

Isaac is the main character of the series, and the obvious pic. He's also got massive amounts of moveset potential.



Felix

Chance: 55%

Felix is in an interesting position. The main thing holding him back, of course, is Isaac getting in first. But after Isaac is in, I think Felix has an incredibly high chance of being an Echo of Isaac. While there's nothing much Isaac can really take from Felix (unless they give Isaac Sand), arguably if they use a number of things from GS2 that weren't in GS1, Felix likely used it first before Isaac did, especially if they draw from Djinn exclusive to GS2. Regardless, even then, Felix is such an easy inclusion I can see them adding him just as a bonus. There's a decent chance they considered Felix as a costume of Isaac anyway if Isaac is in.


Want: 50%

I haven't actually played Lost Age yet. I've been meaning to, but I wanted a perfect GS1 file before doing so. As such I don't really have a lot of interest in Felix personally, but I'd still love to see him.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Ever since that Ratholos screenshot was posted by Sakurai on Twitter, people have gone from being un-optimistic of Isaac to hopeful. That and the lack of his appearance in the August Direct's Assist Trophy massacre and K. Rool further pushing the idea that Sakurai is focusing on ballot candidates in Smash Ultimate have made people very sure he is in the game as a playable character. As great as it is that people are feeling that way, something about it does not gel with me.

Isaac had two big chances to be playable in previous entries, Brawl and Smash 4. Super Smash Bros. Brawl was his biggest chance to be in during the 2005 project plan, as Golden Sun was at its peak series popularity with two successful entries. Isaac had huge moveset potential, notable fan demand, and franchise success at the time to really entice Sakurai to choosing him. But, he was not chosen. He ended up being an Assist Trophy, with his series getting a few remixed tracks. Moving to Smash 4, Isaac held the same merits, except for one. He had the moveset potential and fan demand to be considered again, with the latter growing bigger because of the latest Golden Sun entry, Dark Dawn. But with the 3rd game, Dark Dawn was less successful in sales and in critical acclaim than the last two titles. Since then, the Golden Sun franchise has been dormant, with little signs that Camelot would create a sequel to Dark Dawn any time soon, at the time of Smash 4's project plan in 2012. Content-wise in Smash 4, Isaac was absent in the Assist Trophy lineup, with only a few tracks present in the game.

His exclusions in Brawl and Smash 4 personally and firmly indicated to me that Sakurai had no interest in giving Golden Sun a character, and that the franchise was not big enough to be earn a character. Moving to Smash Ultimate, barely anything has changed Isaac's chances for the better in the past 3 years between Smash 4's project plan in 2012 and Ultimate's project plan in 2015, with the franchise becoming more dormant with no new successful entry to top the GBA predecessors. Even with Sakurai focusing on the ballot for the newcomer selection, I cannot see high demand changing his stance on Isaac, even if that demand was even bigger than the last Smash games to create a strong impression. He has seen that support twice in a row, and chose not to give Golden Sun a playable representative. I doubt demand will make Sakurai perceive Golden Sun any differently.

When thinking about the franchise and Smash Ultimate speculation as a whole, it generally makes me feel that people are reaching too far to find clues for his playability. To me, the Ratholos screenshot and the lack of his Assist Trophy appearance in the AT massacre does very little to help his chances. The former could have possibly been a screenshot Sakurai admired and just wanted to share and nothing more. And yeah, I understand that things like the K. Rool red eye tweet and the Skull Kid colored chairs makes it seem like everything Sakurai shares publicly is a hint to a character, but I think it would be wise not take these things as strong reasons to be optimistic of Isaac in Smash to avoid serious disappointment. Even with me thinking about the various in-direct hints of Skull Kid, I am still being very cautious of the potential scenario that Skull Kid could just be a boss in Spirits Mode or play a role in some other mode Sakurai has planned for Ultimate.

Personally, I see Golden Sun getting the same amount of content as in Brawl in response to the ballot demand, an Isaac Assist Trophy and music returning. There is the chance that GS could have more new content in Spirits Mode where you could unlock an Isaac AT, Mii costume, and/or GS tracks. But as for being playable, I think that is a long shot.

------------

x5 Hanafuda character

 

[Billybae10K]

Alright, figured I'd give my thoughts seeing the characters today.

Isaac - Chance 60% / Want 100% (I've already made a rate and a re-rate of Isaac on my Rate Their Chances video series, but seeing as it's Isaac's day I wanted to post here as well)

As far as chances go, Isaac is a character who has endured silently among the Smash community since Brawl. He was originally an Assist Trophy and the Golden Sun franchise did have two music tracks within Smash 4, so it's not like there's no precedent for Golden Sun getting something in Smash. That being said - I am well aware that the only way Isaac is getting in is through the ballot. And I'm coming from the perspective of a casual fan who wasn't a part of any online communities back when the ballot was going - I voted for Isaac and I doubt I'm the only person in the world who didn't frequent any forums or have any "Nintendo Friends" but still cast my vote for him.

I recall Isaac being an incredibly popular character to vouch for during the ballot, I have fond memories of watching videos on Youtube about his inclusion and getting excited about the potential movesets that people could leave in their ballot boxes. While we don't have the ballot results, SSB4Dojo's consolidation of various polls during the Summer of 2015 has 40k votes and Isaac is looked at quite favourably in his positions there. Looking at the information, a majority of the confirmed characters did well in the poll and have had representation as either an assist/pokemon or become playable.

Of course, this doesn't reflect the full scope of the 1.8 Million votes in Smash, but it's certainly the best option we have for attempting to understand the polls and possible results. Even if Isaac doesn't make it in as playable, I'm confident that we'll be seeing his AT back if worst comes to worst, but he's got a larger fanbase than people realize and we're not the most vocal, but we do our work and vote for him without making a fuss.

As for my want score, Isaac is my only desire for Ultimate. I couldn't care less about anyone else in the sense that I'm happy to have everyone else for their fans, but Isaac is the only thing that I personally WANT more than anything from this game. Hell, even just some extra Golden Sun representation with a few more music tracks would be nice.

Felix: Chance 50% / Want 100%

Felix gets almost the exact same scores as Isaac because, after seeing Richter being added as an echo fighter for Simon, the idea of Felix getting in as an Echo Fighter of Isaac is extremely plausible. However, his fate rests entirely on whether Isaac will actually make it into the game or not. With Golden Sun being a new IP and knowing how well Nintendo has treated new IPs in their debut games in the past, as well as how they treat newcomers in general, I could see Sakurai going all out and really giving Golden Sun fans what they've missed for so many years.

Of course, Felix is a 50/50 addition for me. They could just as easily add Isaac and call it a day with Isaac getting an alt colour scheme for Felix, or they could go all out and give Felix a spot on the roster for those fans who preferred him to Isaac.

And of course, as a Golden Sun fan, I'd love to see Felix added to the game. I think he'd appeal to players in the same way that Richter seems to be, as his design fits more in line with what people enjoy as it's less tropey and more unique compared to Isaac's fairly generic designs (Felix don't got that spiky yellow hair).

(If there's one thing I just want to make clear - It's that Golden Sun isn't as niche as people think. There are silent fans all over the world like myself back in the ballot era, who had no idea about smashboards or these groups, but still championed their character to the few people they knew. He may not be as popular as K Rool or Ridley, but he's never been bottom of the pack either. He's always been consistently championed by his fans, through thick and thin).

 

[cybersai]

Isaac's chances depend entirely if Chorus Kids/Elma, etc. don't get in, simply because of limited newcomers.

If there are 4 more newcomers I can see Gen 7 Pokemon, Skull Kid, Geno, Isaac. However again this also depends if no other third parties, or something like Banjo, is on the base roster. If they are, Isaac wouldn't have been seen as high priority as the others, given Sakurai likes Geno and wants him in himself.

 

[RouffWestie]

Isaac
Chance: 100% Want: 60%
He seems to have been popular on the ballot. As a swordwielder, I am confident Sakurai would be willing to take a second look at him.
Felix
Chance:abstain Want:abstain
Don’t know enough about him. All I know is Isaac.

It’s really cool that a Nintendo underdog has a genuine shot to finally be brought back into the spotlight. I like that he represents another distinct IP Nintendo owns.

 

[StormC]

His exclusions in Brawl and Smash 4 personally and firmly indicated to me that Sakurai had no interest in giving Golden Sun a character, and that the franchise was not big enough to be earn a character. Moving to Smash Ultimate, barely anything has changed Isaac's chances for the better in the past 3 years between Smash 4's project plan in 2012 and Ultimate's project plan in 2015, with the franchise becoming more dormant with no new successful entry to top the GBA predecessors. Even with Sakurai focusing on the ballot for the newcomer selection, I cannot see high demand changing his stance on Isaac, even if that demand was even bigger than the last Smash games to create a strong impression. He has seen that support twice in a row, and chose not to give Golden Sun a playable representative. I doubt demand will make Sakurai perceive Golden Sun any differently.

This whole paragraph could apply to K. Rool and Ridley, except they were characters and not franchises.

What indicates that Sakurai "has seen" support for Isaac before? Literally the first time he had indisputable data on K. Rool's popularity, he was added.

 

[DogManStar]

If Isaac has fan support, the ballot will be the first time he definitively sees it. We can't say for sure that he's seen anything off the internet, and that pre-Brawl poll had an incredibly small sample size.

 

[Calamitas]

Well, about time that I got around to posting in this threat.

Isaac
Chance: 80%.
Considering that every newcomer thus far has been basically a "best of ballot", I'd say he has some decent chance, especially since there are very few things speaking against him outside the question of support. I'm not giving him a perfect score, though, because I'm still a bit sceptical.
Want: 95%
I admittedly have only played through each game in the Golden Sun series once (I've tried to replay them since that initial playthrough, but I just couldn't find the time or attention span), but even so, Isaac has made a very strong impression on me. The only reason why I'm not giving him 100% on the want is because of. . .

Felix
Chance: 50%
It's honestly a coin-flip for him. I could very easily see Sakurai giving Isaac and Felix the Simon and Richter treatment, especially since Felix has multiple Psynergy abilities that Isaac never used, but I feel like that's no guarantee for him making it in as an echo.
Want 100%
Between him and Isaac, I honestly prefer Felix a lot more. In fact, back in the day when Brawl modding was still pretty active, I made a (admittedly decent at best) model and texture edit for him based on Ike, complete with multiple different swords. So if Felix made it in. . . the part of me still living in 2010 would be overjoyed beyond belief.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Isaac's chances depend entirely if Chorus Kids/Elma, etc. don't get in, simply because of limited newcomers.

If there are 4 more newcomers I can see Gen 7 Pokemon, Skull Kid, Geno, Isaac. However again this also depends if no other third parties, or something like Banjo, is on the base roster. If they are, Isaac wouldn't have been seen as high priority as the others, given Sakurai likes Geno and wants him in himself.

You think Chorus Kids and Elma are likelier than Isaac?

 

[BluePikmin11]

This whole paragraph could apply to K. Rool and Ridley, except they were characters and not franchises.

I do not see Sakurai considering characters from unrepresented franchises being done in the same way as considering characters from already established franchises. Newcomers from established franchises do not go through the same huge hoops of proving the success of their IP to get in.

What indicates that Sakurai "has seen" support for Isaac before? Literally the first time he had indisputable data on K. Rool's popularity, he was added.

For Brawl, this is the Japanese poll results that Sakurai decided to share publicly:

https://smashboards.com/threads/characters-on-sakurais-poll.71872/

King Dedede(5) - CONFIRMED!
Diddy Kong(4) - CONFIRMED!
Geno(4)
Ike(4) - CONFIRMED!
Ridley(4)
Captain Olimar & Pikmin(3) - CONFIRMED!
Krystal(3)
Takamaru(3)
Windwaker Link(3)
Animal Crossing MC(2) - in BG of Smashville stage
Claus(2)
Demiru(2)
Isaac(2)
Jeff(2)
Kawasima(2)
King K.Rool(2)
Lip(2)
Lucas(2) - CONFIRMED!
Mega Man(2)
Oguma(2)
Ouendan(2)
Sukapon(2)

For Smash 4, he has seen the western demand of Isaac with the VGTribune poll, doing well enough to be in the finals:

http://vgtribune.com/smash-poll-2012-finals/

FINAL RESULTS:
Total Votes: 347,776

Professor Layton (Professor Layton) (2,532 votes, 0%)

Isaac (Golden Sun) (940 votes, 0%)

Shulk (Xenoblade) (6,247 votes, 1%)

Skull Kid (Legend of Zelda) (135,340 votes, 38%)

Megaman (Megaman) (133,365 votes, 38%)

Ridley (Metroid) (37,610 votes, 10%)

Ghirahim (Legend of Zelda) (27,602 votes, 7%)

King K. Rool (Donkey Kong Country) (4,140 votes, 1%)

This was after the Smash 4 project plan though, but he has definitely seen the demand, even though this poll was botted.

Though, I am very certain that he did not need the poll to seriously consider Isaac when choosing characters from new IPs at the time of Brawl's project plan. Golden Sun had performed almost as strongly as Pikmin in sales at the time for Sakurai to take a brief look on the character.

 

[Organization XIII]

I do not see Sakurai considering characters from unrepresented franchises being done in the same way as considering characters from already established franchises. Newcomers from established franchises do not go through the same huge hoops of proving the success of their IP to get in.

Ok but see the thing that throws that into the trash is Shulk already got into 4

 

[StormC]

For Brawl, this is the Japanese poll results that Sakurai decided to share publicly:

https://smashboards.com/threads/characters-on-sakurais-poll.71872/

That poll had like 70 responses.

The Smash Ballot had 1.8 million responses.

Wee bit different.

For Smash 4, he has seen the western demand of Isaac with the VGTribune poll, doing well enough to be in the finals:

http://vgtribune.com/smash-poll-2012-finals/

This was after the Smash 4 project plan though, but he has definitely seen the demand, even though this poll was botted.

You just said this poll came after the Smash project plan so what difference does it make? What proof do you have he saw it anyway?

 

[BluePikmin11]

Ok but see the thing that throws that into the trash is Shulk already got into 4

What is your point exactly? I would appreciate going into more detail because I am confused by your argument.

You just said this poll came after the Smash project plan so what difference does it make? What proof do you have he saw it anyway?

I just gave you the proof right there though, that was a poll Sakurai looked into to see who was highly demanded for Smash 4. It even says right there:

Remember, the final result will be presented straight to the director of the upcoming games himself: Masahiro Sakurai.

The difference that the poll makes is that Sakurai would be aware of both his ballot demand and the western demand he had in the VGTribune Smash 4 poll to account it when considering Ultimate's newcomers.

Based on what you are arguing, I am guessing your general point here is that Isaac's ballot demand would garner the attention needed to be considered again. I mean, yeah sure. I do not think his demand would have been seen as stand out to Sakurai out of the pool of popular ballot candidates he looked into like Waluigi, Bomberman, Ashley, Shovel Knight, and Krystal. Demand is not going to magically make Sakurai perceive Isaac having more merits than any other newcomer. Sakurai would still have to critically think about several aspects/merits of every popular ballot candidate to see if they are worth including. I do not think Isaac's likely high demand will make much of a difference, he would still account the franchise's dormancy when considering every merit Isaac currently has for Ultimate's project plan.

 

[Metocles]

Isaac
Chance: 90%
I feel really, really good about his chances and in a more realistic way than I ever have. I was around for Brawl and Sm4sh speculation, it's there been nothing to go off of at all for Isaac other than hoping Sakurai will choose him. This time, we know the ballot is being used for the selection process, other characters shown so far prove this unanimously. Isaac does stellar on ballots, especially ones that are single selection, not to mention that this was a worldwide ballot. A lot of people really underestimate how much popularity the franchise has in the European region and in North America/South America his popularity isn't shabby either. I would be willing to bet that he's a top five in that smash ballot. To me, that means he's right there. The 10% left is really uncertainty with Sakurai and how many characters that are potentially left. I won't get into a slots argument because that's silly, but it's possible he was overlooked for some reason.
Want: 100%
Obviously. Look at my avatar. The character has just too much to offer to this game including something a lot of people overlook; the universe of Golden Sun. Isaac is not just going to bring Isaac, but his plethora of godly music (Motoi Sakuraba at his best), fantastic stage design options, fun AT options and everything that is great about the Golden Sun franchise. That's more than you can say for a gigantic amount of characters up for consideration. This includes K. Rool and Ridley - their universes are already firmly in the game and can't add much more in that aspect. A Smash Ultimate with Golden Sun is perfection in my eyes.

Felix
Chance: 25%
I'm really iffy on the real chances of Felix being in the game as anything other than a skin/color swap. It's not 0% because Isaac and Felix are very similar characters in terms of abilities, so if Sakurai wanted to Echo-fy him, it's not a long shot. It just depends on resources and a mixture of ballot + Sakurai decision making. I could probably be convinced to a higher percentage, but I'm really not sure he garners the same weight for conclusion.
Want: 100%
That being said, my feelings don't differ on Golden Sun content in Smash Ultimate, especially that being a playable character. I would really not mind if we got Felix and not Isaac, actually as they are both protagonists of the premier games of the series. Felix's design is, in my opinion, better than Isaac's and you actually spend way more time with him as the protagonist than you do Isaac if you play both GS1 and GS2.

 

[Organization XIII]

What is your point exactly? I would appreciate going into more detail because I am confused by your argument.

Sorry, I sometimes just view my point as obvious when not everyone will have the same line of reasoning. So basically Shulk sold far less than GS did with Nintendo of America not even thinking it was worth bringing over yet Sakurai still decided the game was worth putting in Smash. At the same time, K Rool was completely ignored until DLC despite DK selling way more GS and Xenoblade combined. Even Dixie with Tropical Freeze didn't get anything in 4. Xenoblade was very small and characters with bigger series were not considered a priority over his. Being a part of an established franchise doesn't give you a leg up necessarily nor does being a part of unrepped series give you a disadvantage. Especially since Sakurai usually does try to add new series to each game anyways. Now that Ultimate's main criteria is popularity it's unlikely that Sakurai is going to hold Golden Sun back because it was never had a playable character.

 

[Metocles]

Going Isaac has a shot to Isaac is pretty much confirmed cause King K Rool got in is also some pretty bad reasoning. Donkey Kong is bigger and still going while Golden Sun has been buried for now as a 3 installment series. They aren't exactly 1 for 1.

I think you're forgetting that many "results" also indicated Toad, Waluigi, Takamaru, Lip, Lyn, and Krystal as top dogs. None of them made it in. Isaac can still fall short. He is more likely than expected before Ultimate was revealed to be more about crowd pleasing, but he still isn't 100% till he is confirmed.

Isaac popularity doesn't fluctuate as wildly as all those other characters you listed, so seeing one poll with Lip at the top doesn't mean much in the face of 14 polls where Isaac is top 3. A problem with random polling is that timing is everything. If no one knows that you're making a poll, it's literally down to what community you put your survey out to. If one Waluigi fan alerts their entire Waluigi fanbase, then sure that random poll will put Waluigi as top billing, while Ashley is left in the dust because her fanbase didn't know anything about it. The smash ballot, everyone knew about it that mattered for the game. In single vote polls like this, Isaac popularity really stays steady because he is popular world-wide, in multiple regions. You think Lip and Takamaru are going to survive a world-wide poll?

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Isaac want: 12% (22-10*)

Isaac would make a lot of fans happy while filling a niche in the roster. There currently aren't any earth-based characters, and the only plant-based character (Ivysaur) has moves that originate from her body, rather than from the ground, as Isaac's would. I hope he wouldn't be designed so that players use his psynergy hand as much as players often do in Super Smash Flash 2, though.

Felix want: 0% (3-10)

He looks cooler than Isaac. I don't know if he is the same size as Isaac, though.

Nominations:

FE Spear User x10

* Indicates percentage penalty for potentially taking a slot from most wanted characters

 

[colder_than_ice]

Isaac
Chance: 40% - I’m very happy too see that everyone’s becoming more optimistic about his chances. That being said, I do believe that he’s still hurt by the fact that we’re likely getting a lot less newcomers and that there’s a very good chance that we’ve already seen all the stages.
Want: 90% - Golden Sun is easily the most iconic Nintendo franchise not yet represented in Smash.

Felix
Chance: 10% - His only real hope is becoming an echo.
Want: 70%

Nominations: Edelgard x5

 

[BluePikmin11]

Sorry, I sometimes just view my point as obvious when not everyone will have the same line of reasoning. So basically Shulk sold far less than GS did with Nintendo of America not even thinking it was worth bringing over yet Sakurai still decided the game was worth putting in Smash. At the same time, K Rool was completely ignored until DLC despite DK selling way more GS and Xenoblade combined. Even Dixie with Tropical Freeze didn't get anything in 4. Xenoblade was very small and characters with bigger series were not considered a priority over his. Being a part of an established franchise doesn't give you a leg up necessarily nor does being a part of unrepped series give you a disadvantage. Especially since Sakurai usually does try to add new series to each game anyways. Now that Ultimate's main criteria is popularity it's unlikely that Sakurai is going to hold Golden Sun back because it was never had a playable character.

I still do not quite get the point with how you built up your argument here, but I will try to answer the second-to-last sentence at least.

If Sakurai does try to add new series for playable characters in each Smash game, why in Smash 4 did he choose to add Shulk after his JP game release and localization release in 2011/2012 at the time his game was not only highly acclaimed and decently successful globally a proven IP worthy in Smash, but decide not to add Isaac in Brawl at the time when Golden Sun was at its prime popularity with two successful games prior to the project plan in 2005? At that time of Brawl, it would have been the best time to make Isaac playable, but Sakurai chose to make him an Assist Trophy. At that time, Pikmin had a similar calibur of success as Golden Sun, and Olimar was chosen to be playable after two successful games. With Ultimate, Sakurai has shown to care about adding new proven IPs like Splatoon with playable characters in the Ultimate's 2015 project plan. With all of these IPs that have received character treatment after their beginning, notable success prior to each Smash game's project plan, why was Golden Sun left out in the dust in Brawl?

 

[Dionaea_floridensis]

I still do not quite get the point with how you built up your argument here, but I will try to answer the second-to-last sentence at least.

If Sakurai does try to add new series for playable characters in each Smash game, why in Smash 4 did he choose to add Shulk after his JP game release and localization release in 2011/2012 at the time his game was not only highly acclaimed and decently successful globally a proven IP worthy in Smash, but decide not to add Isaac in Brawl at the time when Golden Sun was at its prime popularity with two successful games prior to the project plan in 2005? At that time of Brawl, it would have been the best time to make Isaac playable, but Sakurai chose to make him an Assist Trophy. At that time, Pikmin had a similar calibur of success as Golden Sun, and Olimar was chosen to be playable after two successful games. With Ultimate, Sakurai has shown to care about adding new proven IPs like Splatoon with playable characters in the Ultimate's 2015 project plan. With all of these IPs that have received character treatment after their beginning, notable success prior to each Smash game's project plan, why was Golden Sun left out in the dust in Brawl?

Isaac fans have been asking this for years. All we can do to revive the IP at this point is poke Camelot every time a new Mario Sports game drops, and support him as a newcomer in smash.

 

[StormC]

I just gave you the proof right there though, that was a poll Sakurai looked into to see who was highly demanded for Smash 4. It even says right there:

"Remember, the final result will be presented straight to the director of the upcoming games himself: Masahiro Sakurai."

The difference that the poll makes is that Sakurai would be aware of both his ballot demand and the western demand he had in the VGTribune Smash 4 poll to account it when considering Ultimate's newcomers.

We have a guy on VG Tribute claiming it was presented to Sakurai. Have we ever seen Sakurai discuss it or reference it? Why should I believe this person on VGTribune was able to put this poll in Sakurai's mind, or at the very least, make him more than briefly glance at it? Did he tweet it at him? Sit down and talk to him about it? There's no context for this.

Based on what you are arguing, I am guessing your general point here is that Isaac's ballot demand would garner the attention needed to be considered again. I mean, yeah sure. I do not think his demand would have been seen as stand out to Sakurai out of the pool of popular ballot candidates he looked into like Waluigi, Bomberman, Ashley, Shovel Knight, and Krystal. Demand is not going to magically make Sakurai perceive Isaac having more merits than any other newcomer. Sakurai would still have to critically think about several aspects/merits of every popular ballot candidate to see if they are worth including. I do not think Isaac's likely high demand will make much of a difference, he would still account the franchise's dormancy when considering every merit Isaac currently has for Ultimate's project plan.

The problem is you think you know exactly how Sakurai chooses things, when in reality, every game it's different.

This argument has been applied to K. Rool and Ridley before. "Why would they get in now if they haven't before?" Priorities change, new data appears.

I'm not even saying Isaac is a lock, my chance prediction was roughly a coin flip, but it doesn't seem like you even consider it a real possibility. I personally was not expecting Isaac at all until the August Direct, which changed my viewpoint on his chances quite a bit.

 

[DogManStar]

I still do not quite get the point with how you built up your argument here, but I will try to answer the second-to-last sentence at least.

If Sakurai does try to add new series for playable characters in each Smash game, why in Smash 4 did he choose to add Shulk after his JP game release and localization release in 2011/2012 at the time his game was not only highly acclaimed and decently successful globally a proven IP worthy in Smash, but decide not to add Isaac in Brawl at the time when Golden Sun was at its prime popularity with two successful games prior to the project plan in 2005? At that time of Brawl, it would have been the best time to make Isaac playable, but Sakurai chose to make him an Assist Trophy. At that time, Pikmin had a similar calibur of success as Golden Sun, and Olimar was chosen to be playable after two successful games. With Ultimate, Sakurai has shown to care about adding new proven IPs like Splatoon with playable characters in the Ultimate's 2015 project plan. With all of these IPs that have received character treatment after their beginning, notable success prior to each Smash game's project plan, why was Golden Sun left out in the dust in Brawl?

Look I don't even think Isaac is gonna be in the game at all, but Brawl was a whole different playing field than Smash 4. There were a lot of big names not yet in Smash. Do you really think Isaac would be chosen over Dedede or Diddy? Olimar probably only got in because he was from a console game created within Nintendo, whereas Isaac was from a game created by people who only worked alongside Nintendo for a portable. Pikmin matters more to Nintendo than Golden Sun does, regardless of how similar their success was.

In Smash 4, Shulk got in because there were relatively few big first parties not yet in Smash. I genuinely think if Xenoblade had existed in the early 2000s alongside GS, Shulk would be in a similar position to Isaac right now. Isaac is a victim of bad timing.

That's just what I think though. For all we know, Sakurai thinks Isaac is just boring or something. No one really knows.

 

[Lupin Red]

Isaac

Chance: 75%
With the reveal of King K. Rool, I'd say Isaac is more likely to get in Smash now than it was before. He has a ton of support in the Ballot and has been highly requested ever since Brawl came out. The only hurdle he has go through is his relevancy: Golden Sun hasn't made a new game for a very long time and thus the series is considered dead at this point, but with King K. Rool confirmed, he doesn't have that problem anymore. Still, it's up to Sakurai whether he should add him because fans wanted to or not.

Want: 90%
I wouldn't mind Isaac in Smash, actually. Even if he's another swordfighter, he can do tons of stuff that other swordfighters couldn't do, like using Earth-based moves or his Move Psynergy. He's going to be a unique sword fighter in Smash, let me tell you.

Felix

Chance: 25%
That all depends whether Isaac is going to be in Smash or not. If he does, then there's a slight chance he might bring Felix as his Echo Fighter, just like what they did to Simon, bringing along Richter as his Echo. However, he doesn't have the support from the Ballot like Isaac does and the Golden Sun series better off only having Isaac as a playable fighter. But, with the inclusion of Richter, I'd say he might make it in as Isaac's Echo, at least that's how I see it.

Want: Abstain
I really don't know much about Felix other than he's the main character of The Lost Age, which my brother used to play all the time.

Nominations:
Jin Kazama x5

 

[StormC]

Olimar is also a Miyamoto character. There's no scenario Isaac gets picked over him.

 

[Sid-cada]

Isaac

Chance - 45% - I'm cautiously optimistic about his chances. Relavancy hasn't been as important this time around, and that was his biggest flaw. While I don't feel like that's enough to make him more likely than not, I do feel that he is a decent shot.

Want - 75% - He seems cool, and I can appreciate his history. Earth powers from him would be interesting, so why not?

Felix

Chance - 0% - Why are we thinking he could be an echo, when Matthew exists? Mathew, his son who looks a lot like him, would make the most sense as an echo of Isaac.

Want - 50%- I don't care about echoes. I can deal, I guess.


Predictions

Uh... Who are we predicting?

Nominations

Reimu Hakurei X5

 

[warpenguin55]

Isaac:
Chance: 40%
On one hand Isaac is popular, but on the other, he hasn't been relevant in so long that the popularity might not matter

Want: 70%
I thought he was cool when I first saw him as a Brawl assist trophy. I don't even know why, I just kinda like him.

Felix:
Chance: 5%
Golden Sun (to my knowledge) is a dead franchise. I doubt we would get 2 characters from it. I also thought before the direct on 8/8 that 3rd party characters couldn't get echo fighters, so it's possible he could make it.

Want: 10%
I don't think Golden Sun needs another character after Issac. It would be a bit weird too many new fighters came with an echo

Nominations:
Zeraora x5
Silvally x5

 

[Organization XIII]

I still do not quite get the point with how you built up your argument here, but I will try to answer the second-to-last sentence at least.

If Sakurai does try to add new series for playable characters in each Smash game, why in Smash 4 did he choose to add Shulk after his JP game release and localization release in 2011/2012 at the time his game was not only highly acclaimed and decently successful globally a proven IP worthy in Smash, but decide not to add Isaac in Brawl at the time when Golden Sun was at its prime popularity with two successful games prior to the project plan in 2005? At that time of Brawl, it would have been the best time to make Isaac playable, but Sakurai chose to make him an Assist Trophy. At that time, Pikmin had a similar calibur of success as Golden Sun, and Olimar was chosen to be playable after two successful games. With Ultimate, Sakurai has shown to care about adding new proven IPs like Splatoon with playable characters in the Ultimate's 2015 project plan. With all of these IPs that have received character treatment after their beginning, notable success prior to each Smash game's project plan, why was Golden Sun left out in the dust in Brawl?

You do know that GS's last game was in 2001 when every newcomer outside of retros in Brawl had a game in 2005 or after? Timing was not very good for Isaac at the time. His best shot was not Brawl. I get that he came directly after Melee but sadly that doesn't mean his shot was great then. His real best shot besides now was actually 4 when a new game was released at the right release window. Sadly DD wasn't notable enough to gain enough traction for Isaac to make the jump it seems.
But my point was that being a part of a series in Smash already does not help you get on the roster. Otherwise, roster picks would be very different. Sure we always get a Pokemon or FE character but Brawl didn't have a new Mario character. F Zero and Mother haven't new characters in a while. People still complain about the lack of a LoZ newcomer. DK and Metroid got nothing in 4. Yet even those notable franchises got no new characters smaller series like KI or Xenoblade would be added to the roster. So the idea that GS will be held back because it's a new series and therefore not comparable to K Rool or Ridley's inclusion because they already had characters was not a good argument.

 

[ProfPeanut]

You do know that GS's last game was in 2001 when every newcomer outside of retros in Brawl had a game in 2005 or after? Timing was not very good for Isaac at the time. His best shot was not Brawl. I get that he came directly after Melee but sadly that doesn't mean his shot was great then. His real best shot besides now was actually 4 when a new game was released at the right release window. Sadly DD wasn't notable enough to gain enough traction for Isaac to make the jump it seems.
But my point was that being a part of a series in Smash already does not help you get on the roster. Otherwise, roster picks would be very different. Sure we always get a Pokemon or FE character but Brawl didn't have a new Mario character. F Zero and Mother haven't new characters in a while. People still complain about the lack of a LoZ newcomer. DK and Metroid got nothing in 4. Yet even those notable franchises got no new characters smaller series like KI or Xenoblade would be added to the roster. So the idea that GS will be held back because it's a new series and therefore not comparable to K Rool or Ridley's inclusion because they already had characters was not a good argument.

Isn't that just the reverse of what's being argued against Isaac, though? "If you're an established franchise, you have higher chances of getting a new character". That's not really true, as F-Zero can attest, so I agree with that.

But you can't really use that to argue that its opposite is untrue as well, that "If you're not an established franchise, you have lower chances of getting a new character." That's a different situation entirely. The only new franchises that got in characters in 4 yet existed before even Brawl were just Animal Crossing and Punch-Out, but those two already had presence in Brawl.


Nominations
Guzma x5

 

[BluePikmin11]

We have a guy on VG Tribute claiming it was presented to Sakurai. Have we ever seen Sakurai discuss it or reference it? Why should I believe this person on VGTribune was able to put this poll in Sakurai's mind, or at the very least, make him more than briefly glance at it? Did he tweet it at him? Sit down and talk to him about it? There's no context for this.

When I think about it, I guess I haven't really took the time to verify the source. I will get into contact with Spazzy of SG to get him to talk to RogersBase (The person responsible for the poll).

The problem is you think you know exactly how Sakurai chooses things, when in reality, every game it's different.

This argument has been applied to K. Rool and Ridley before. "Why would they get in now if they haven't before?" Things change, new data appears.

I could understand shifting directions when it comes to choosing the types of newcomers such as focusing on older versus newer Nintendo characters (Newer characters being the focal point for Smash 4, with retros and "surprise" characters being exceptions to the rule, while Ultimate has the opposite direction), but I doubt Ultimate's new direction will change the methods of how Sakurai chooses to add characters from unrepresented IPs. I doubt the ballot-focused direction will change the way Sakurai viewed and treated Golden Sun content in previous Smash games.

Olimar is also a Miyamoto character. There's no scenario Isaac gets picked over him.

Aside from retros and "surprises", I think both could have been chosen in Brawl. I do not think there would have been competition with new series newcomers, so as long as the franchise was notably successful in many areas. We got three new Nintendo series that had notable success prior to Smash 4's project plan: Xenoblade, Animal Crossing, AND Wii Fit. Very little was stopping Golden Sun from getting a character in Brawl, but Isaac did not get in.

I'm not even saying Isaac is a lock, my chance prediction was roughly a coin flip, but it doesn't seem like you even consider it a real possibility.

I have been through the phase of seeing multiple, great, niche unrepresented Nintendo IPs get shafted to non-playable roles. I personally experienced this with Starfy, and I loved the hell out of the 5th entry as a child when the series was localized in the West and had a notable, decent Western success, yet Starfy was only an Assist again in Smash 4. I have been through this with Chibi Robo, Advance Wars, and Drill Dozer, eventually figuring out that these franchises would not receive playable characters. Chibi Robo was devolving with the recent games taking away what made Chibi Robo unique back with its first game, making me doubtful of Chibi Robo being playable in any future Smash game. Advance Wars not having a successful entry in years made me skeptical of Andy's chances in Smash 4 and Ultimate. With Drill Dozer, a great game that I played recently this year, I realized that Game Freak would never touch the franchise again, not having a new entry in 10 years, only bothering with Pokemon and occasionally having a few testing water IPs like Harmoknight and Pocket Card Jockey that never blossomed sequels.

It is why I have been very doubtful of Isaac for the longest time. If Camelot is not going to do much with the Golden Sun franchise after Dark Dawn and just focus on creating passable/ok Mario sports spinoff games instead, why should I bother seeing Isaac's chances being more than decent?

 

[StormC]

BluePikmin11 I won't quote the whole thing but I think those are all pretty valid points and I'm glad you elaborated, and they make sense (although I think in the whirlwind of Diddy/Dedede/Meta Knight/Olimar/Sonic etc. for Brawl, I can see why Isaac missed out). I personally think the ballot can be the tipping point for Isaac, but I'm not a Golden Sun fan so mostly I would be happy for fans of his. So we'll see how it shakes out.

 

[False Sense]

I have been through the phase of seeing multiple, great, niche unrepresented Nintendo IPs get shafted to non-playable roles. I personally experienced this with Starfy, and I loved the hell out of the 5th entry as a child when the series was localized in the West and had a notable, decent Western success, yet Starfy was only an Assist again in Smash 4. I have been through this with Chibi Robo, Advance Wars, and Drill Dozer, eventually figuring out that these franchises would not receive playable characters. Chibi Robo was devolving with the recent games taking away what made Chibi Robo unique back with its first game, making me doubtful of Chibi Robo being playable in any future Smash game. Advance Wars not having a successful entry in years made me skeptical of Andy's chances in Smash 4 and Ultimate. With Drill Dozer, a great game that I played recently this year, I realized that Game Freak would never touch the franchise again, not having a new entry in 10 years, only bothering with Pokemon and occasionally having a few testing water IPs like Harmoknight and Pocket Card Jockey that never blossomed sequels.

It is why I have been very doubtful of Isaac for the longest time. If Camelot is not going to do much with the Golden Sun franchise after Dark Dawn and just focus on creating passable/ok Mario sports spinoff games instead, why should I bother seeing Isaac's chances being more than decent?

Probably because none of those characters ever had or maintained the level of support Isaac has.

 

[DivineWrath45]

Isaac

Chance: 50%
It's a fifty-fifty chance for Isaac to get into Smash, really. On one hand, Isaac had some support in the Ballot and we all know that Sakurai is using the ballot to look for newcomers, but on the other, his relevancy might hurt him a little bit. But, if he does well in the Ballot, then I guess Isaac might get in Smash just like the way King K. Rool got in.

Want: 85%
I've been playing Golden Sun ever since childhood and I really enjoyed it. And I wouldn't mind if Isaac managed to get into Smash, as he would definitely be interesting to see him fight. Yeah, sure he's another swordfighter, but Isaac has a lot to offer in Smash and that's what makes him unique.

Felix

Chance: 20%
The only way I could see him get in is if they make him an Echo Fighter of Isaac. And even then, he still has to wait for Isaac to get in Smash before he can make it in, but I highly doubt they would pull another Simon/Richter situation at this point. Besides, I feel like Isaac alone should represent the Golden Sun series.

Want: 5%
I'm not really interested on Felix making it in, even as an Echo of Isaac. Isaac is more than enough for me to represent the Golden Sun series in Smash Ultimate. But still, if he does make it in alongside Isaac, then okay, I guess.

Nominations:
Jin Kazama x5

 

[BluePikmin11]

StormC I will tag you when I have verification of the VGTribune poll.

Probably because none of those characters ever had or maintained the level of support Isaac has.

Isaac has enough support to get considered for Ultimate, but I doubt having/maintaining large support for years alone will string a unique, strong impression to Sakurai to change his viewpoint on the character and the franchise. Not every long-time request is going to be answered. Krystal/Waluigi/Bomberman, highly demanded newcomers since Brawl, are Assists in Ultimate, which brings me back to why I feel we should not be thinking that every long-time request will be answered by Sakurai.

You may be setting yourself for major disappointment if you let Smash screenshots and lack of AT appearances (Small things that may or may not mean something) hold control of your expectations to unusually high optimism.

 

[StormC]

I do think people who are like over 70% on Isaac are crazy optimistic but my optimism for K. Rool paid off. It’s interesting since people rated K. Rool’s chances way higher for the DLC period than this game (where Dixie was rated higher). I guess it’s different now that the man himself has said he’s using the ballot.

 

[DogManStar]

70% and over is crazy optimistic for Isaac imo. Even 50% is pushing it for Isaac l, I’d say.

 

[Ridrool64]

Abstaining this round, except for Isaac's chance. I don't know enough about either for want.

Isaac gets a 35% chance from me.

I think the best way to think of it is that Isaac doesn't have a replacement Assist Trophy [something that fills the void left behind by Isaac]. Skull Kid is in almost an identical situation, but he has replacements for his AT and his abilities as an AT (the Moon, Ramblin' Evil Mushroom) and benefits from not needing a stage, which might be big. Isaac has a 1% chance of coming without a stage, and therefore any songs. If 103 is it then he drops to 1% because never say never, and he might qualify for retro rep. If 103 isn't it, it's still only 35% because they could just bring back his AT since he has neither a series replacement nor an effect replacement.

Not like I'd be upset at his inclusion, [seems interesting enough, has a greater story to tell about saving his franchise like saving King K. Rool from obscurity] but I kinda find over 70%'s pretty strange when he's almost guaranteed to need a stage.

 

[aarchak]

Isaac

Chance: 60%
He's very popular, and has strong moveset potential. We haven't seen him yet, so he has good chances. I don't think really anyone has amazing odds anymore after all these new characters now though.
Want: 90%
I haven't finished Golden Sun yet, but I would be hyped for Isaac to appear in this game.

Felix

Chance: 5%
The only reason this isn't at 0% is that Richter got in as an echo, so I guess he has a tiny chance.
Want: 50%
I would be happy to see him, but I would be just fine without him.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Since discussion is doing well today and I still need to put in some more effort into a front page revamp, I am extending the day into tomorrow. Given that Isaac is such a big character, I feel that this is acceptable.