Depressed Gengar
Hana Is Best Girl
Release: 0%.
Multi Newcomers: 55%.
Multi Vets: 70%.
New Stage: 20%.
Deconfirmation: 85%.
Multi Newcomers: 55%.
Multi Vets: 70%.
New Stage: 20%.
Deconfirmation: 85%.
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What measure will you be using to determine whose prediction is the best? Brier score? That's the average of the squares of the error - so if I guess 90% and 20% and both happened, it would be (0.1^2 + 0.8^2)/2 = 0.325 score.After the Direct, I will come through and total up everyone's votes. The person who was closest to predicting the real Direct overall will win a whopping 25 extra nominations for when nominations resume later this week. Note: It would be extremely wise to predict every one of these five categories, or you will have little chance in winning.
Like I said in the past, I'm not an expert on statistics. I won't be taking a course until next year.What measure will you be using to determine whose prediction is the best? Brier score? That's the average of the squares of the error - so if I guess 90% and 20% and both happened, it would be (0.1^2 + 0.8^2)/2 = 0.325 score.
Not that I really could optimize my predictions anyway... It does seem that no matter what you'd have a 1/32 chance of predicting perfectly if you guessed at random giving only 0% and 100%
Sakurai just said that he's going to reveal "all kinds of info" and it will be "worth the wait" even if you have to stay up really late to see it. So... don't disappoint me Sakurai.
Release window: 93%
If they're not sure if they'll make it for 2014, they won't give it yet. If they're sure it's Q4, they might say so but not go specific. If it's earlier than that we'll probably get a month or date. I'm pretty sure we're not getting it before fall though... Even if they're unsure, they'll probably just say Q4 and then delay it later if needed.
Multiple newcomers: 30%
I'm sure we're getting at least one. But more than one? I can't say. I'm thinking we'll either get one super hype newcomer (like Pac-Man or Ridley) or two less hype ones (like Shulk, Isaac or Chrom). Appropriate veterans (Mewtwo, Snake, revamped Ganondorf) would also satisfy the hype machine. But even then, I could see us just getting one. I dunno if we should expect something like E3 where he'll have time to talk about more than one newcomer in detail, and there's also still some stuff he could explain about WFT and such.
Multiple veterans: 84%
There are a number of veterans (like Captain Falcon, Wario, Ice Climbers, Metaknight, G&W, ZSS, Ness, ROB, Jigglypuff) that nobody is expecting any major changes to (like entirely new moves a la the Upperdash Arm). These could be revealed without Sakurai needing to talk about them much. Or we could get someone more interesting like revamped Ganondorf or Mewtwo and a largely unchanged veteran as well.
Character disconfirmation: 4%
Sakurai could put some random AT or stage hazard into the footage. I don't think we'll get any major character disconfirmation (i.e. Ridley). A middle level character like Ashley or Waluigi is unlikely as well. But we could certainly get a character that had some supporters, like Dr. Kawashima, Shadow/Knuckles/Tails, etc. Even then it's more likely we get something like the Hammer Bros.
It's really unlikely he'd tell us about any character cuts, unless we got something big in exchange (e.g. Sheik is out, Impa is in; Ike is out, Chrom & Lucina are in, etc.). Even then it's unlikely because cuts are a hype killer. He's probably gonna just not tell us like last time. I feel like he should tell us before release, but I understand why he avoids talking about it.
No! You still have time! This thread will lock when the Direct is over!Shoot! I didn't get to my rating.
Probably wouldn't have won anyway, I guess.
Farewell, thread. Will miss you.