Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[Depressed Gengar]

Release: 0%.
Multi Newcomers: 55%.
Multi Vets: 70%.
New Stage: 20%.
Deconfirmation: 85%.

 

[Glaciacott]

Release Window - 100% I think this is necessary. We're in the closing stages of Mario Kart hype and people are beginning to look at E3 and beyond. I genuinely feel that the direct needs to establish at the least a release window, with perhaps a more solid date on E3. But yea, I think this is the time for them to stop just saying 2014 ... and I feel like one of the reasons for making such a big deal to announce it four days before hand is to get as many people as possible to see it for the sake of establishing hype for the second half of 2014.

Multiple newcomers - 70% I for one am expecting only one newcomer, but considering overall numbers and time left, I feel like it's time for Sakurai to do the unexpected and give us two. I think it will be similar to how Villager, a more niche-hype sort of character, necessitated a Mega Man reveal right after to really get people excited. I think that might happen again with a relatively low key character (low key by the perception of the general public ... like I'm sure smash fans know Palutena but the casual public won't) followed by a high profile character. The 70% is the result of me considering Mewtwo or Snake possible contenders for that hype inducing character. But if a newcomer, I imagine something like Pac Man.

Multiple veterans - 50% I feel like video is best devoted to newcomers and game mechanics. If he explains veteran changes in terms of movesets, I imagine he'll focus on the likes of Zelda, Lucario, Diddy, Olimar ... characters he's revealed already but hasn't really gotten to talk about. I also imagine explanation of some final smash edits, particularly Pit's if Palutena is indeed confirmed. When it comes to revealing veterans, I feel he's going to stick to the PotD. The only exception, again, is Mewtwo and Snake because they have their special qualities.

New Stage - 30% I imagine focus will be on showcasing stages already shown but not quite explained, as well as the difference in stages between 3DS and Wii U. There's plenty to talk about in terms of existing stages, I'd rather they flesh those out first.
The 30% is in case we get a newcomer like Takamaru, Pac Man, Shulk or Snake, since those characters would necessitate a reveal of their own stage.

Character disconfirmation - 25% The only possibilities I imagine are ZSS or Sheik being disconfirmed from Samus or Zelda's moveset, but I don't find that likely. The other option is a new third party and no sign of Snake, which in my opinion would put a nail on that coffin ... BUT Smash development is long and surprises exist, so I wouldn't count Snake out just yet since there's always E3.
HOWEVER, I am increasing the percentage from 5 to 25 because of the fact there is a possibility an adventure mode is shown and a boss is shown as a part of that. Whoever that boss is would probably help disconfirm a possible character. Like say, if the boss was Bowser Jr. or Fawful.

Looking back at my percentages it seems I've gone and hyped myself about this direct. Dang.

 

[colder_than_ice]

I know I've been nominating Shepard the past few days, but I would just like to assure everyone that if I somehow end up winning this, I will be giving most (not all) of the 25+ extra nominations to serious characters and or concepts. I know a lot of people would probably be disappointed if all those extra noms went to what is partially a joke character.

Release Window: 50% - It's a coin flip, I think the release date will be either tomorrow or on E3

Multiple Newcomers: 0% - With limited newcomers, combined with the fact that E3 is two months away, combined with the fact that some unlockable newcomers will probably not be revealed until after release, I don't think there's any chance of this happening.

Multiple veterans: 20% - Unlikely

New Stage: 50% - Makes sense

Character deconfirmation: 10% - I don't think we're likely to see any Assist Trophies in the direct. The only plausible way for a character getting deconfirmed during the direct is to be revealed as a stage hazard.

 

[Spears In Smash Bros.]

Release Window: 65%
They have to tell us sometime.

Multiple Newcomers: 7.5%
I heard somewhere that Luigi is the only character revealed before the release date who will be unlockable. This means we probably won't be seeing too many newcomers before the game's release.

Multiple Veterans: 50%
More likely, especially considering the supposed length of the Direct.

New Stage: 70%
Don't see why not.

Character Deconfirmation: 55%
AKA new assist trophy or stage element, I assume. Plus, if it's the latter, it won't even be a major deconfirmation.

 

[Hippopotasauce]

Release Window: 75%
One of the things I think is very likely. They can't be hyping this direct up for nothing.
Multiple Newcomers: 17%
I'd love this, but it's not something I think is too likely with E3 right next door.
Multiple Veterans: 10%
I'm honestly questioning whether we'll even get one veteran or not. (sans Mewtwo or Snake, who are special enough for a direct reveal)
New Stage: 80%
Dependent on whether or not a newcomer is from an unrepped series or not.
Character Deconfirmation: 15%
I mean I guess but I don't know how. Probably not any major ones.

By the way, sorry if I missed it, but how is this being graded? If there ends up being 2 newcomers revealed, would the person who guessed 100% get the 5 noms? Etc.

 

[Toxicroaker]

I'm going to do something strange
Release Date: 100%
Multiple Newcomers: 0%
Multiple Veterans: 100%
New Stage: 100%
Deconfirmed Character: 0%

That way if I get them all right I will get a perfect score.

 

[Deleted member]

Release Date: 25% (probably not until E3, but I could be wrong)
Multiple Newcomers: 50%
Multiple Veterans: 50%
New Stage: 65%
Deconfirmed Character: 50%

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Release Window: 80%
This is the perfect time to reveal it. Seriously.

Multiple Newcomers: 80%
I expect Mii and someone else

Multiple Veterans: 80%
I expect two or three shown.

New Stage: 25%
I've been rating the other things high but...

I just don't feel this one.

Deconfirmed Character: 30%
I can see it happening, but I'm not feeling it either.

 

[woopyfrood]

Release Window: 90%
Multiple Newcomers: 10%
Multiple Veterans: 70%
New Stage: 50%
Character Deconfirmation: 5%

We could get one Newcomer and one Veteran, making us all wrong! Hahahaha!

 

[Keto]

Release Window: 80% Only reason why it would not be shown is the opportunity to be shown at E3.
Multiple Newcomers: 20% It would be nice, but let's not get our hopes up.
Multiple Veterans: 90% This is much higher than multiple newcomers because of how many unrevealed veterans remain plus the drought since Diddy.
New Stage: 90% I don't see a good reason for this not to be true.
Character Deconfirmation: 70% This is confirmed if ANY assist trophy/pokeball/stage background characters are revealed no matter how irrelevant.

 

[PK_Wonder]

Release Window - 100%
Multiple Newcomers - 50%
Multiple Veterans - 95%
New Stage - 95%
Character Deconfirmation - 85%

 

[Miffa]

Release Window - 80%
Multiple Newcomers - 5\60%
Multiple Veterans - 80%
New Stage - 35%
Character Deconfirmation - 50%

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Ummm... isn't the only viable way to win to bet big? Like 100s and 0s all round as that'll get you the highest score if you get things right?

I'll play the game properly still mind.. nominations aren't worth jepardising the integrity of this game.



Release Window: 100%
If it's Q4 they'll say it, if it's earlier they'll probably give a month/date. I'm doubting actual day just yet, but you said window.
EDIT: Confinrmed by Nintendo, though to be fair I had it at 99% beforehand .

Multiple Newcomers: 55%
On the upper scale, one newcomer in the trailer, one after Mega-Man stylee, possibly more but only around 20% there. The main worry on this is Mewtwo and/or Snake taking a newcomer slot for reveal.

Multiple Veterans: 99%
The direct will likely include a trailer that just drops a couple of characters without real fanfare, Wario, Yoshi, Captain Falcon, Ice Climbers etc could just be in the trailer or be spoken about without introductory fanfare like Bowser was at e3.

New Stage: 70%
I could see it generally, but I think the adventure mode would take more priority, still highly possible mind you... but certain characters would have stages with them (ie. any new franchise rep), which would likely be shown off.

Character Deconfirmation: 20%
I don't see ATs being mentioned personally, they make perfect PoTDs, so the only options are those that are part of a moveset... And that mostly means Bandanna Dee, if he's talking about changes to DeDeDe, then I expect this one will come up. Alternately they could reveal Stage Hazard Ridley, but I don't see it as a likely scenario that he is a stage hazard, and certainly unlikely that they'd focus on the one stage in a direct.

 

[NickerBocker]

Release Window: 40%

This can go a few ways:

1. They narrow the window now, and at E3 they give a date.
2. They mention nothing about the release date, and the window comes at E3
3. They give the date

Personally, I doubt the chance that they will give us an exact date, so point 3 is not going to happen. They will most likely do it at E3, it will grab the most attention. However, they may narrow it down to something like "Holiday, 2014", or "Winter 2014" or something. The release date at E3 would be most hype inducing, and garnish enough of an audience to really rock the stage.

Multiple Newcomers: 33%

One newcomer is going to happen for sure. They wouldn't drag us through an entire direct just to reveal no characters. two or more newcomers? its certainly possible, like what happened with Villager and Megaman showing up at the end. I have a feeling this will focus on more than just characters, there's plenty that we dont know about the game already (customization, single player, game modes, event matches, game mechanics, items, final smashes, changed characters, the list goes on) That can be given some attention.

Multiple Veterans: 90%

There's just too many veterans that have not been shown to pass it up. i mean, we have SSB64 veterans that haven't even shown up yet, so i have a feeling at the very least Jiggs, Cpt Falcon, Ness and Yoshi have a very good chance of all being shown (at least 2 of those)

New Stage: 95%

They can sneak it in very quickly, but a new stage is very likely. There were stages in the E3 trailer that only had a few seconds of screen time, and i could see a few more being like that as well.

Character Deconfirmation: 10%

Why so low? Sakurai knows that straight up deconfirming a character outright would cause backlash and disappointment. The reason it has any chance is because boss battles might be a thing this time around yet again, and if any boss is shown that has any chance of being playable, and i mean any, then that counts. If there will be deconfirmations, it will be when the game comes out. Were all looking for Ridley, but i think it would be a poor choice to show him as a boss (though he does have meta and omega Ridley as potential bosses, with vanilla-Ridley playable) and I think Sakurai knows this.

 

[Plain Yogurt]

Release window: 90%
Multiple Newcomers: 30%
Multiple Veterans: 45%
New Stage: 20%
Character Deconfirmation: 50%

 

[Smady]

Release Window: 100%

This is the whole reason for the direct. Sakurai has said he's on time and there's no way he'd delay the project after a long development. We're far enough into 2014 that simply giving a generic "2014" date would not suffice. I can't think of any game-centered Direct where the release date wasn't revealed for the game.

Multiple Newcomers: 50%

I can see one or two, very unlikely, very good if three. I mostly say two just because you can have one at the beginning and end. Seeing as we've had a lack of newcomers for over a month, I can see multiple, but just as likely a single, big one. I think we'll get the sense for this Direct fairly quickly - if we get an immediate newcomer I think there'll be two or more, if it stretches on and goes over tonnes of features, more likely one.

Multiple Veterans: 80%

It's simply too long to not have new features and less flashy reveals like veterans in there in a big way. Yoshi I feel is a shoo-in, aside from that Falcon or Wario could also very easily be in there. I'm going to bet on two.


New Stage: 90%

Almost as likely as a release date, in my opinion. If there's a newcomer like K. Rool or Pac-Man there's going to be a new stage for them, or most newcomers from old franchises. Also if stage builder makes an appearance or a new boss, that also qualifies and is pretty likely.

Character Deconfirmation: 10%

I really doubt Sakurai would allow for something so deflating to happen during his Direct. It could be an accidental de-confirmation of a character who isn't really considered for Smash in the first place. Not sure if that counts. Certainly anyone that is sought after won't be de-confirmed.

 

[YoshiandToad]

(That was an insanely long maintenance time)

Release Window: 90%
Like Smash Daddy says; the whole Direct is pointless without at the very least a month of release. I fully expect it to get delayed again, but giving us a rough estimate is better than nothing.

Multiple Newcomers: 85%
Expecting two myself. One of which I'm expecting will be Mii. Curse this gut feeling.

Multiple Veterans: 75%
Highly likely we'll get at least two. Personally would expect three vets, probably ones without any promotional tie ins like Falcon, Ness or Ice Climbers.

New Stage: 90%
Fairly confident on this one, although I'm sure some old stages may get explained a bit better too...hopefully some light is shed on Yellow Devil; Boss or Stage Hazard?

Character Deconfirmation: 60%
A new Assist, a background character or a Pokeball could all spell doom for certain newcomers. Expecting both Meowth and Samurai Goroh in my sig there to get solidly deconfirmed.

Man, I'm such a Smash cynic these days. I miss the days of happy optimism.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Release Window: 100% - I'm fairly certain the confirmed "rough estimate" is the same as this.

Multiple Newcomers: 50% - Could go either way. They could reveal a newcomer at the start and at the end as far as I see it.

Multiple Veterans: 10% - I'm doubting even a single veteran honestly.

New Stage: 50% - I don't think that's what the Direct is going to be about, but they can probably sneak one in there somewhere I guess.

Character Deconfirmation: 20% - This would happen in the form of an AT, which isn't all that likely imo unless that character just happens to be on screen in some gameplay footage.

 

[cephalopod17]

Release Window: 80%
Seems like a good time, if they do not announce it, E3 for sure.

Multiple Newcomers: 40%
We are going to get one for sure. We might get two, it is it's own Direct after all.

Multiple Veterans: 50%
Might get a few, especially those without games coming up (Falco, Ness, Captain Falcon etc.)

New Stage: 33%
Depending on who is announced, we might get one.

Character Deconfirmation: 50%
New Assist Trophies and Bosses could be shown, and they could include a wanted character.

 

[Arcanir]

Release Window: 100%
-We're definitely getting a range.

Multiple Newcomers: 30%
-Looking back at the amount of time a game-specific direct usually has, I think it's going to just be 1 newcomer while they explain most of the other aspects.

Multiple Veterans: 50%
-More likely as they don't require as much explanation or time (excluding a couple like Snake or Mewtwo). Plus, it would be a good idea to reveal popular veterans that don't have anything to tie into and many would like to see.

New Stage: 75%
-Pretty likely as usually we get a brief look at a new stage in big Smash trailers. Also, if a newcomer from new a franchises and/or Snake is revealed, a new stage is very likely to accompany them.

Character Deconfirmation: 30%
-I think Sakurai will avoid this as this is a time to get everyone excited and deconfirming characters would negatively affect enthusiasm for the fans. Having said that, it's not an impossibility.

 

[Erimir]

After the Direct, I will come through and total up everyone's votes. The person who was closest to predicting the real Direct overall will win a whopping 25 extra nominations for when nominations resume later this week. Note: It would be extremely wise to predict every one of these five categories, or you will have little chance in winning.

What measure will you be using to determine whose prediction is the best? Brier score? That's the average of the squares of the error - so if I guess 90% and 20% and both happened, it would be (0.1^2 + 0.8^2)/2 = 0.325 score.

Not that I really could optimize my predictions anyway... It does seem that no matter what you'd have a 1/32 chance of predicting perfectly if you guessed at random giving only 0% and 100%

Sakurai just said that he's going to reveal "all kinds of info" and it will be "worth the wait" even if you have to stay up really late to see it. So... don't disappoint me Sakurai.

Release window: 100%
If they're not sure if they'll make it for 2014, they won't give it yet. If they're sure it's Q4, they might say so but not go specific. If it's earlier than that we'll probably get a month or date. I'm pretty sure we're not getting it before fall though... Even if they're unsure, they'll probably just say Q4 and then delay it later if needed.

Multiple newcomers: 30%
I'm sure we're getting at least one. But more than one? I can't say. I'm thinking we'll either get one super hype newcomer (like Pac-Man or Ridley) or two less hype ones (like Shulk, Isaac or Chrom). Appropriate veterans (Mewtwo, Snake, revamped Ganondorf) would also satisfy the hype machine. But even then, I could see us just getting one. I dunno if we should expect something like E3 where he'll have time to talk about more than one newcomer in detail, and there's also still some stuff he could explain about WFT and such.

Multiple veterans: 84%
There are a number of veterans (like Captain Falcon, Wario, Ice Climbers, Metaknight, G&W, ZSS, Ness, ROB, Jigglypuff) that nobody is expecting any major changes to (like entirely new moves a la the Upperdash Arm). These could be revealed without Sakurai needing to talk about them much. Or we could get someone more interesting like revamped Ganondorf or Mewtwo and a largely unchanged veteran as well.

Character disconfirmation: 4%
Sakurai could put some random AT or stage hazard into the footage. I don't think we'll get any major character disconfirmation (i.e. Ridley). A middle level character like Ashley or Waluigi is unlikely as well. But we could certainly get a character that had some supporters, like Dr. Kawashima, Shadow/Knuckles/Tails, etc. Even then it's more likely we get something like the Hammer Bros.

It's really unlikely he'd tell us about any character cuts, unless we got something big in exchange (e.g. Sheik is out, Impa is in; Ike is out, Chrom & Lucina are in, etc.). Even then it's unlikely because cuts are a hype killer. He's probably gonna just not tell us like last time. I feel like he should tell us before release, but I understand why he avoids talking about it.

 

[FalKoopa]

Okay. The Final Day before this thread gets locked. *sniff*

Release Window - 100%
It was confirmed by Nintendo on Twitter.
https://twitter.com/NintendoAmerica/status/453502629759709186

Multiple Newcomers - 50%
There will be atleast one newcomer, but the direct is long enough to allow another newcomer trailer. A fair chance in my opinion.

Multiple Veterans - 80%
I think it's pretty likely, especially if the veteran belongs to the same franchise as the newcomer.

New Stage - 90%
You can't have a good trailer without showing showing off a new stage that fits the newcomer shown. That said, there are quite a few newcomers who wouldn't need a new stage to go with them, like Ridley or Palutena.

Character Disconfirmation - 5%
I seriously doubt it. Sakurai is aware of the fact that fairly wanted characters who become ATs are hype-killers, and none of the trailers so far have disconfirmed any characters.

 

[Pacack]

Most likely:
1. Mii
2. Takamaru
3. Palutena

Most Wanted:
1. Pac-Man
2. Takamaru
3. Palutena

 

[Sid-cada]

Release Window - 100% - Thank you for the link, FalKoopa.

Multiple Newcomers - 60% - A slightly likely possibility. I'm at least expecting multiple reveals, at least.

Multiple Veterans - 90% - This one I'm a bit more confident in. Only 10% off in case we get only a veteran and a newcomer.

New Stages - 0% - Not expecting much to be shown off. I'm only expecting veteran stages.

Disconfirmation - 15% - Not likely, but I can see it happening. All it takes is one miscalculation...

 

[The Light Music Club]

Release Window- 100 %
Multiple Newcomers-50 % I think it will be Lip and Palutena if multiple. But I have a gut feeling April showers bring Lip's Flowers
Multiple Veterans- 99% For sure a N64 guy and I think a brawl vet. Probably Yoshi/Jiggly and Ike/Wario
New Stages- 60 % Probably one
Disconfirmation- 15% Ridley may get revealed as too big.

 

[Pacack]

Oh, if we're doing this as well, let me give a more detailed post:

Single character (newcomer/veteran): 100%
Single newcomer: 80%
Single Veteran: 5%
Multiple characters: 25%
Multiple Veterans: 20%
Multiple newcomers: 5%
New Stage(s): 10%
Info on currently revealed newcomers: 30%
Info on game modes: 15%
Info on stage builder: 10%
Info on customization: 30%
Disconfirmation: 10%

Newcomer chances:
Mii: 60%
Takamaru: 15%
Palutena: 15%
Other: 10%

Most wanted newcomers:
Pac-Man
Takamaru
Palutena
Ridley
Fire Emblem newcomer

 

[Deleted member]

Predicting the Direct has been added to... the DIRECTory! Hahaha!

Release Window: 100%
@ FalKoopa just confirmed this so...
Even then, I would give it a 100%. It's a Direct on a specific game! Of course there is going to be a release window!

Multiple Newcomers: 50%
I'm split even on this.
On one hand... I can see it happen. I feel as though that the Pic of the Day hinted at us getting three newcomers... I mean three boxes on a day like this... I can see it happen. I might be overanalyzing, but I feel as though this might be a hint.
On the other hand... I can't see this happen. As @ Groose mentioned, they could reveal Miis and they do require an explanation of what they do and what they could do. They might as well make the whole Direct about them.
If you, Sakurai, reveal multiple newcomers, one of them better be Shulk...

Multiple Veterans: 50%
Another thing that I am split even on.
If we get multiple newcomers, I can't see us get multiple veterans.
The strongest contenders here are Snake, Yoshi, Wario, Meta Knight, and Captain Falcon; I can see them all get revealed here. It depends if we get "Trailer 2," which is similar to the very first trailer shown at E3.

New Stage: 70%
I can see us get a new stage or two here. Maybe something from Donkey Kong Country Returns, Luigi's Mansion: Dark Moon, or some other games. If we see Palutena get confirmed, I bet that we will see more of that KI stage on the Wii U.
If Shulk or Snake get confirmed, then this is guaranteed.

Character Disconfirmation: 20%
The very first trailer disconfirmed Balloon Fighter. I can see Sakurai give the axe to a couple of characters here.

 

[Opossum]

Multiple Newcomers: 50%

Newcomer: 100%

Multiple Veterans: 78%

Release Date: 100%

 

[loganhogan]

Multiple newcomers: 50%
Newcomer: 1000%
Multiple veterans: 50%
Release date: 50%
New Stage: 75%
deconfirmation: 75%

 

[Groose]

Here we go! Get ready to say farewell to the day, the wait, and the thread! IT'S GO TIME, BABY!

What measure will you be using to determine whose prediction is the best? Brier score? That's the average of the squares of the error - so if I guess 90% and 20% and both happened, it would be (0.1^2 + 0.8^2)/2 = 0.325 score.

Not that I really could optimize my predictions anyway... It does seem that no matter what you'd have a 1/32 chance of predicting perfectly if you guessed at random giving only 0% and 100%

Sakurai just said that he's going to reveal "all kinds of info" and it will be "worth the wait" even if you have to stay up really late to see it. So... don't disappoint me Sakurai.

Release window: 93%
If they're not sure if they'll make it for 2014, they won't give it yet. If they're sure it's Q4, they might say so but not go specific. If it's earlier than that we'll probably get a month or date. I'm pretty sure we're not getting it before fall though... Even if they're unsure, they'll probably just say Q4 and then delay it later if needed.

Multiple newcomers: 30%
I'm sure we're getting at least one. But more than one? I can't say. I'm thinking we'll either get one super hype newcomer (like Pac-Man or Ridley) or two less hype ones (like Shulk, Isaac or Chrom). Appropriate veterans (Mewtwo, Snake, revamped Ganondorf) would also satisfy the hype machine. But even then, I could see us just getting one. I dunno if we should expect something like E3 where he'll have time to talk about more than one newcomer in detail, and there's also still some stuff he could explain about WFT and such.

Multiple veterans: 84%
There are a number of veterans (like Captain Falcon, Wario, Ice Climbers, Metaknight, G&W, ZSS, Ness, ROB, Jigglypuff) that nobody is expecting any major changes to (like entirely new moves a la the Upperdash Arm). These could be revealed without Sakurai needing to talk about them much. Or we could get someone more interesting like revamped Ganondorf or Mewtwo and a largely unchanged veteran as well.

Character disconfirmation: 4%
Sakurai could put some random AT or stage hazard into the footage. I don't think we'll get any major character disconfirmation (i.e. Ridley). A middle level character like Ashley or Waluigi is unlikely as well. But we could certainly get a character that had some supporters, like Dr. Kawashima, Shadow/Knuckles/Tails, etc. Even then it's more likely we get something like the Hammer Bros.

It's really unlikely he'd tell us about any character cuts, unless we got something big in exchange (e.g. Sheik is out, Impa is in; Ike is out, Chrom & Lucina are in, etc.). Even then it's unlikely because cuts are a hype killer. He's probably gonna just not tell us like last time. I feel like he should tell us before release, but I understand why he avoids talking about it.

Like I said in the past, I'm not an expert on statistics. I won't be taking a course until next year.

...that said, I'll be doing things the old fashioned way...

If it happened, it' a 100%; if not, it's a zero. I find the difference of each category, then average all of the differences together. The person with the lowest overall average wins!

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

Release Window: 100%
Multiple Newcomers: 70%
Multiple Veterans: 65%
New Stage: 50%
Character Disconfirmation: 10%

 

[LoneKonWolf]

release window - 100%
confirmed, and even if it wasn't its not hard thinking we'll get something other than 2014
multiple newcomers - 15%
I doubt we'll get many newcomers, there's always the case but my guessing is that this will focus more on gameplay than the roster, one is most likely all there is
multiple veterans - 50%
kinda something i'm split on, like I said my guessing is that they'll show more on gameplay and whats new than actually showing us whos in, they could show more veterans to show what differences in their gameplay statuses (i.e. unconfimed veterans getting new specials, buffs/nerffs on weak/strong characters)
basically they could show one, two, five, or none, it depends on what they want to show off
new stage - 99%
villager got the animal crossing stage shown with him
megaman got willy castle shown with him
WFT got wii fit shown with her
Rosalina got (sort of) rainbow road shown with her
little mac got the reskin of punch out shown with him (hey still counts)
if there's a newcomer, theres a new stage. no doubt
deconfirmation - 10% (assuming that this means to anyone who has a low chance or higher)
they are hype killers to major and median characters, there probably going to be stage hazards and assist trophies shown off with the stages and gameplay, but its not going to be anything to deconfirmed any major/medium competitors

 

[Groose]

Release Window: 100%
I'll be excluding this because it's now an unfair advantage since Nintendo has announced it. DANG IT! ...please be June, please be June, please be June...

Multiple Newcomers: 40%
I think it's a strong possibility based on the promotion this has received. Still, I must drive down my expectations.

Multiple Veterans: 20%
I think they'll be getting flashy; I don't think they'll go too heavily into veterans. Still, the March drought gives me pause.

New Stage: 45%
It's a possibility on its own, and it is guaranteed if we get someone like Shulk or Pac-Man.

Character Deconfirmation: 5%
Why would they do this? They're trying to create hype, no eliminate it! Still, I guess an AT reveal or Ridley as a stage hazard is possible, if highly unlikely in my eyes.

Thread Over

...goodbye, old friend!
You can continue making posts until the direct. I just had to get that out of my system.​

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Goodbye thread, you shall be missed...

Many a good hour was spent perusing your library, and adding to it in my own way... I shall shed no tears at our passing though, as I expect your successor to be a grand replacement!

 

[Gunla]

I'll make sure to make some newer Logic Bullets. Especially for Friday and BWD.
And for Smash 5, I've got to make that Viridi Thread.

 

[LoneKonWolf]

I spent my first post in this thread. . .
been here since I've first started, and even helped run it a couple of times (with help too)
going to be odd seeing in the back of the threads. . . . . . ah well at least the memories will stick with us

 

[Cheezey Bites]

I shall have to prepare an even more epic Slime post for his post e3 discussion in the new thread .... some time after I update the Slime Support thread OP... XD

EDIT: I meant per-e3, though I like the freudian slip, and shall retain the high hopes he'll be revealed then!

 

[Deleted member]

I created an account on this website just because of this thread...
It's a shame to see it get locked after all this time...
But hey! The new thread will make things more convenient!

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Shoot! I didn't get to my rating.

Probably wouldn't have won anyway, I guess.

Farewell, thread. Will miss you.

 

[Deleted member]

Shoot! I didn't get to my rating.

Probably wouldn't have won anyway, I guess.

Farewell, thread. Will miss you.

No! You still have time! This thread will lock when the Direct is over!
Make your predictions now!