Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[Smady]

Most Expected Newcomers
Mii
Takamaru
Palutena

I'm prepared for a disappointment. Mii would require a long Direct explanation to make any sense. Takamaru would come as an Eastern counterpart to Little Mac. Palutena is an obvious newcomer who has been leaked (potentially) and Kid Icarus hasn't had much news recently.

Most Wanted Newcomers
King K. Rool
Pac-Man
Mewtwo

These aren't my most wanted newcomers period but the ones having any chance to show up in this Direct. King K. Rool has no game to advertise, so now or E3 is the best time, same for Mewtwo. Pac-Man is a big name that could be dropped at any time. I'd be very happy if any of these were revealed, but I'm not getting my hopes up.

Most Expected Veterans
Yoshi
Wario
Captain Falcon

All have games from the GBA virtual console or are big names in general. Honorary mention to Ness and Jigglypuff as the other remaining original 12 who could turn up too, although I imagine Jigglypuff will be a hidden character.

Most Wanted Veterans
Captain Falcon
Ganondorf
Snake

Captain Falcon is one of my mains and kind of obvious as to why anyone would want him back for Smash 4. The other two are both favorites of mine, just in terms of video games period and have really fun sets. I could see both getting huge changes to their movesets or entirely re-designed, plus Snake is one of the likeliest to be cut. Aside from that, plenty of veterans I'd like to see; Ike, Lucas, Wolf, Wario and G&W come to mind.

 

[NickerBocker]

Expected Newcomers:
King K Rool
Palutena
Mii

Wanted Newcomers:
King K Rool
Palutena
Ridley

Expected veterans:
Yoshi
Cpt Falcon
Jigglypuff

Wanted veterans:
Cpt Falcon
Ike
Metaknight
Ness
Lucas
Snake

 

[True Blue Warrior]

Expected Newcomer:
Palutena
FE13 Character
Takamaru

Wanted Newcomer:
Isaac

Expected Veterans:
?????

Wanted Veteran:
Jigglypuff
Cpt Falcon
Yoshi
Lucas
Wolf
Ike

 

[Toxicroaker]

I know that this was yesterday but...

Hmmm... yea, Waluigi's large array of main series appearance totally take precedence over Mario's new shining star.

Except on Miiverse, where she is more popular than all of them

If I'm remembering correctly, Miiverse was created after the roster was decided.

She's big and light. She's not that strong. And neither of those 2 were broken, they were just top tier.
This is false.

@point 1 That first part may be true, but we have no way to tell her power. The point is: she gets to control two characters.
@point 2 Note how I say broken or top tier like Olimar and the Ice Climbers.

Not really. And it's not fair to compare characters like this. Although if there's only 5 Mario characters: Bowser Jr simply wasn't chosen to be in the game.
It's not like Bowser Jr won't get in because Rosalina did.
Rosalina got in because he didn't.
It's hard to explain, but it's unfair to compare the 2 like that...

It still has the same effect. Rosalina got in over Bowser Jr.

Rosalina gets a lot of undeserved hate on SmashBoards (yet nowhere else for some reason)
Sure, if this was your least hyped moment than this was your least hyped moment.
It's just that a lot of what's said about her is false and comes from being biased towards the 4 you mentioned (and even a couple times, Daisy)...
Seems unfair. Her moveset is the most unique so far. This wouldn't be the case for the other characters.
And her character is so well-developed... how could someone not like this?
But whatever. Keep on hating.

...I actually hate the idea of Toad, Waluigi, and Paper Mario... Where did I say anything about Daisy?

 

[Xavier :D]

I just want Yoshi, Captain Falcon, Ness, and Jigglypuff to round out the Original 12

 

[BKupa666]

Expected Newcomers:
Palutena
Takamaru
Mii (f***ing blegh)

Wanted Newcomers:
K. Rool
Ridley
Mewtwo

Expected Veterans:
Yoshi
Wario
Ice Climbers

Wanted Veterans:
Wario
Ganondorf
Wolf

 

[Groose]

Working on a science project, eating some dinner, then I'll come back and end this day. Our last day before the Direct will be more... traditional. It may also be the last day before we lock this thread and open the new one with the unified front page. Also, 25 Bonus Nominations will be up for stake.

I don't expect more than two newcomers at maximum. If there are around 10, then there needs to be a handful to be revealed at E3, or perhaps unlockable characters. But I will abandon my sense of realism for a moment.

Ah, don't worry. I think I was a bit unclear--I didn't mean that you needed to expect three characters. If you only expect to see one newcomer, then who are the three most likely people that will fill that spot?

 

[Gunla]

25.. NOMINATIONS?!
Wonder what they are for...

 

[LoneKonWolf]

expected newcomers
Palutena
Shulk
expected veterans
snake
wanted characters in general
shulk
wolf (a canine can dream)
just going to do this short, i'm in a hurry today

 

[BluePikmin11]

Expect:
Layton
Shulk
Tom Nook

Want:
Palutena
Zoroark
Pac-Man

Expected Veterans:
Yoshi?
Ness?
Mewtwo (Does he count?)

Wanted Veterans:
Ice Climbers, Lucas, Falco

 

[TumblrFamous]

Expected:
Palutena
Mii
Chrom

Wanted:
Palutena
Shulk
Dixie Kong

 

[WonderSmash]

Expected Newcomers
None - I know some are coming but I'm not expecting any

Wanted Newbies
Wonder Red
Tin Star
Dillon

Expected Veterans
Wario
Falco
Ganon

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

Expected NCs:
Palutena
Shulk
Takamaru
Honorable Mention: Ridley

Wanted:
Lyn
Roy
Mewtwo

If Roy and Mewtwo don't count then add Ridley and Masked Man

Expected Vets:
Yoshi
Wario
Gdorf

honorable mention: Ike

Wanted Vets:
Ike
Lucas
Falcon

 

[andimidna]

I now think Ridley is very likely due to recent events, I'm changing my "expect" to:
1. Palutena
2. Ridley
3. Chrom & Lucina

I replaced Takamaru with Ridley, Takamaru is now my #5 expected, Miis are sadly #4
Shulk at #6, the rest at #7

 

[UltimateWario]

I don't think the Metroid is anything to get excited about unless we get another Metroid picture tomorrow.

THAT'S when the hype will be real.

 

[andimidna]

I don't think the Metroid is anything to get excited about unless we get another Metroid picture tomorrow.

THAT'S when the hype will be real.

True. But isn't there a Metroid game anniversary tomorrow?

 

[UltimateWario]

True. But isn't there a Metroid game anniversary tomorrow?

Is there? Huh.

 

[Shalashaska]

Expected Newcomers:
Palutena
Someone from Fire Emblem
Takamaru
Isaac
I'd be surprised if at least one of these characters wasn't announced tomorrow. I'm expecting 2 newcomers in general, 3 at most, but 1 (not necessarily from my list) is a given.


Wanted Newcomers:
King K. Rool
Palutena
Chibi-Robo
I also wouldn't mind seeing someone from the Zelda series.


Expected Veterans:
These are mostly just guesses, I haven't put a huge amount of thought into them.
Wario
Yoshi
Falco
Five-letter names with multiple vowels FTW.

Wanted Veterans:
I'd be fine with pretty much anyone, but I'd especially like to see veterans who are seen as possible cuts, such as Wolf, Ike, Lucas, Jigglypuff (though I'm pretty sure there's no way she'd get the boot) and the Ice Climbers (Melee vets who were also in Brawl won't get cut either, IMO).
There are some other characters I'd like to see, such as Ridley and Mewtwo, but I see them more as E3 material.

EDIT:

!

I forgot Snake!

EDIT 2.0: I'm also hoping for a de-cloned Ganondorf.

 

[Sid-cada]

Newcomer Expectations

Ridley - Probably just me reading too much into today's picture of the day. Still, I have a hunch.

Palutena - A few too many hints plus a leak. Now's the time!

Mii - As much as I hate the idea, the logic of explaining a complex charater at this time is sound.


Newcomer Wants

Palutena

Ridley

...umm... ah... Bandanna Dee?

Palutena and Ridley are both major characters I'm wishing for. Dee's just there as a more minor filler.


Veteran Expectations

Yoshi - It's been a fairly long wait for someone of his caliber. Why not now?

Meta Knight - A good hyper with no games on the horizon, so it makes sense.

Mewtwo - He's obviously getting his own trailer, so it must be in a direct.


Veterain Wants

Snake

Roy

Pokémon Trainer

All high-risk veterains are what I want. These are the ones that stand out the most to me.

 

[Arcanir]

Is there? Huh.

Zero Mission came out on the 8th in Australia, and Super came out this month on the 18th for the US. Having said that, considering Sakurai's treatment of non-Japanese release dates and anniversaries in general, it probably doesn't matter too much.

A bit of a fun fact though: This year is the 10th and 20th anniversary for Zero Mission and Super respectively.

 

[Pega-pony Princess]

Expected Newcomers:
Shulk
Palutena
Chrom

Wanted Newcomers:
Shulk
Robin
Ghirahim

Expected Veterans:
Meta Knight
Pokemon Trainer
Yoshi

Wanted Veterans:
Ike
Snake
Falco

 

[Aqua Rock X]

MOST EXPECTED NEWCOMERS

- Palutena
- Dixe Kong
- Mii

MOST WANTED NEWCOMERS

- Isaac
- Shulk
- Lip

MOST EXPECTED VETERANS

- Captain Falcon
- Lucas
- Yoshi

MOST WANTED VETERANS

- Mewtwo
- Captain Falcon
- Lucas

I counted Mewtwo as a veteran because he was there during Melee.

 

[Toxicroaker]

Most Expected Newcomers
Mii
Takamaru
Chrom

Most Wanted Newcomers
Chrom
Mewtwo
King K. Rool

Most Expected Veterans
Meta Knight
Yoshi
Ice Climbers

Most Wanted Veterans
Meta Knight
Yoshi
Ike

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Most Expected Newcomers

Palutena
Ridley
Shulk

Most Expected Veterans

Captain Falcon
Meta Knight
Jigglypuff

Most Wanted Newcomers

Ridley
King K. Rool
Palutena

Most Wanted Veterans

Jigglypuff
Captain Falcon
Yoshi

 

[Spears In Smash Bros.]

Expected Newcomers:
None. I honestly have no idea who I should expect to be revealed. Plus, if I keep my expectations this low, there's no way to be disappointed!

Wanted Newcomers:
Build Strike Ray

Expected Veterans:
Yoshi
Wario
C. Falcon

Wanted Veterans:
C. Falcon
Ike

 

[Gunla]

I realized that I forgot to put my veterans down.

Expected:
Yoshi
Ness
Captain Falcon

Wanted:
Ness
Meta Knight
Captain Falcon
(Mewtwo's better for E3)

 

[Groose]

I have a question: If Chrom & Lucina were confirmed as a team...
Would you write "confirmed" or "deconfirmed" next to their solo rates?

Err... "Semi-Confirmed!" It's a confusing topic, really. I usually say that when we rate "Chrom," we're rating the chance that he gets his own spot on the roster. Some people give a score that includes the chance of him being on a team; this isn't really what I'm looking for, but I tend to include them anyway. That is the reason why I kind of dread days like those.

Colours, eh?

I'm an American, but I grew up reading books by English authors. I was such an avid reader that I would import books whenever possible because I just couldn't wait until they got localized. In addition, I played a lot of Runescape, a British MMO. I generally have to correct myself to spell things the American way.
I congratulate you on spelling that word correctly. Though for some reason I still find your way of spelling "tire" odd.

Expect:
Layton

Don't... tempt me Pikmin! That's too good to be true! Don't set me up for disappointment by making me hope for a character I really don't see getting in! He's my #4 Most Wanted, but I just don't see him.

Most Expected
Honorable Mention: Pac-Man
I could really see us getting an E3 style double reveal at the beginning of the trailer where they bring Pac-Man in following the reveal of a different newcomer. Still, I could also see him being saved for E3.

Number 3: Palutena
Sakurai loves Kid Icarus, and his teasing of it has reached a fever pitch recently. I feel very confident that she's in the game, and I think there's a very solid chance the man strikes while the hammer is hot. I just tallied up the scores and read through everyone's posts, and I can see I'm not alone in thinking she has a solid shot.

Number 2: Shulk
So, a Monolith member has tweeted about the Direct (though said that they were merely doing so as a fan of Smash). I'd say that alone makes him a contender for this Direct, and I also have a gut feeling leaning towards him.'

Number 1: Mii
...unfortunately, no gut feeling can be allowed to surpass logical reasoning in my mind's priority. Mii is a character almost definitely in the game, and is one that would almost definitely require some explanation... the type of explanation this Direct would provide. Also, I feel Nintendo would push Miis as the big new newcomer to attract the casual audience, and that that may be part of the reason for this Direct's promotion.

Most Wanted
Number 3: Shulk
Shulk has risen lately to become my number three most wanted character. He's also got a strong claim to the one I am most hyped for for tomorrow; as I said above, I think he has a pretty solid chance. Still, even he won't get my as pumped as the untouchable two...

Number 2: Ridley
Bigpurplefreakinglongoverdueepicandscaryspacedragon. Yes, please.

Number 1: King K. Rool
Just come out and show him already! Pleeeeeeeeaaaaaaaasseeeeee Sakurai, I can't take the anticipation anymore!

DAY OVER

...let's begin this thread's last day, eh?*
We're not closing RTC, just switching to a new, cleaner thread.​

 

[Gunla]

RIP all my logic bullets and Groose's AA posts.
May they never be quoted again.
But hey, new thread!

 

[LoneKonWolf]

RIP all my logic bullets and Groose's AA posts.
May they never be quoted again.
But hey, new thread!

. . . you do realize that the directory will remain in tact so everyone can still view/replay to them any time they want.
we might be starting a new thread, but the past is still going to be tagging along with us no matter what

 

[Gunla]

. . . you do realize that the directory will remain in tact so everyone can still view/replay to them any time they want.
we might be starting a new thread, but the past is still going to be tagging along with us no matter what

I see. Well, off to update RE, ta ta!

 

[Groose]

Most Expected
x44 Palutena
x26 Mii
x14 Takamaru
x13 Chrom
x12 Shulk
x9 Ridley
[collapse=The Rest]x5 Fire Emblem
x5 Pac-Man
x4 K. Rool
x3 Isaac
x2 Dixie Kong
Mewtwo
Layton
Tom Nook
Chrom and Lucina
Zelda Newcomer[/collapse]
Palutena is considered one of the most likely candidates by, well, everyone. Miis are also anticipated by many. Still, a lot of people have doubts about their ability to predict Sakurai's reveal schedule; after March, I'm not surprised.


Most Wanted
x19 Palutena
x19 K. Rool
x19 Ridley
x10 Shulk
[collapse=The Rest]x6 Mewtwo
x5 Isaac
x4 Dixie Kong
x3 Chrom
x3 Ghirahim
x3 Pac-Man
x2 Professor Layton
x2 Lip
x2 Bandana Dee
x2 Robin
x2 Lucina
x2 Chibi-Robo
3rd Party
Takamaru
Pokemon
Andy
Midna
Rhythm Heaven
Anna
Simon Belmont
Paper Mario
Lyn
Roy
Chrom and Lucina
Micaiah
Mii
Zoroark
Slime
Wonder Red
Tin Star
Dillon
Ray[/collapse]
Palutena, Ridley and King K. Rool own this board. There can be no doubt of that. Personally, I can't wait to see the explosion that one of them will produce when confirmed.





From now until the start of the Direct, we will be playing a round that combines our Direct speculation with our more traditional chance ratings. We will be rating five things in chance--getting a release period [not "2014"], receiving multiple newcomers, receiving multiple veterans, getting a new stage, and having a character deconfirmed. A sample post may look like this:

Sample:
Release Window: 75%
Multiple Newcomers: 20%
Multiple Veterans: 60%
New Stage: 33%
Character Deconfirmation: 75%

After the Direct, I will come through and total up everyone's votes. The person who was closest to predicting the real Direct overall will win a whopping 25 extra nominations for when nominations resume later this week. Note: It would be extremely wise to predict every one of these five categories, or you will have little chance in winning.

 

[Starbound]

Release Window: 100%
Multiple Newcomers: 50%
Multiple Veterans: 65%
New Stage: 50%
Character Deconfirmation: 50%

 

[Gunla]

I'll rate this the absolute best I can:

Release Window- 50%- This video by Maximillian explains the reasoning of the possibility. However, as Smash is a very large game that's not exactly known how far they are and how close they are to finishing, Sakurai's up against the wall. I doubt we'll see anything other than 2014, but it's 50/50.

EDIT: 100%- NOA confirmed it.

Multiple Newcomers: 60%- The fact that this is an entire direct dedicated to Smash Bros says one thing; That one thing is that we are getting something big. Remember the Pokemon Directs? They had a ton of info, new Pokemon, and the like. The only thing that stops this are Mewtwo, Snake, another 3rd Party, or none at all. It's actually quite likely.

Multiple Veterans- 95%- I don't think it should come as a surprise. We're not just going to have 5 minutes of screentime to just that newcomer. We're likely getting a trailer, too. With some veterans. Directs at minimum last 15 minutes.

New Stage- 50%- Some newcomers that are possible have a stage already.

Character Deconfirmation- 5%- Ehh?
We have an influx of ATs already.

 

[Ghirahilda]

Release Window: 100%
Multiple newcomers: 50%
Multiple Veterans: 70%
New Stage: 100%
Character Deconfirmation: 15%

 

[AustarusIV]

Release Window: 80%
Multiple Newcomers: 10%
Multiple Veterans: 70%
New Stage: 85%
Character Deconfirmation: 40%

This is really going to be hit-and-miss isn't it?

 

[Groose]

This is really going to be hit-and-miss isn't it?

I've always said that the glory of Rate Their Chances is seeing how miserably wrong we were at the end.

...the main thing about this round, though, is we'll know that relatively quickly.

 

[Wyoming]

Expected Newcomers: No idea as things stand.
Wanted Newcomers: Ridley & Palutena, get the teasin' done with.

Expected Veterans: Mewtwo, Yoshi, Zero Suit Samus
Wanted Veterans: Jigglypuff, Ganondorf, Wolf, Sheik

Release Window: 90%
Multiple Newcomers: 40%
Multiple Veterans: 60%
New Stage: 85%
Character Disconfirmation: 10% if we're talking about disconfirming a veteran, 75% if it's in general.

 

[Groose]

Character Disconfirmation: 10% if we're talking about disconfirming a veteran, 75% if it's in general.

We're doing in general. Also, we're only talking about characters that have some semblance of a chance, too. Basically what I'm talking about is seeing a new AT or stage hazard that had some support to be playable.

 

[andimidna]

Release Window: 70%
This means a month, right?
Multiple Newcomers: 65%
Multiple Veterans: 80%
New Stage: 20%
Character Deconfirmation: 5%

Trying to not disappoint myself...

 

[Smasher 101]

Hmm...

Release Window: 50% (even though it's apparently confirmed I'm keeping it at this since I wasn't sure about it when I posted)
Multiple Newcomers: 20%
Multiple Veterans: 95%
New Stage: 60%
Character Deconfirmation: 10%