Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[andimidna]

Stork:
Chance: 0.1%
Want: 0.1%

Zelda Newcomer:
Chance: 70%
Want: 100%

With Rosalina and Mewtwo, I think it would be awkward to not have one, especially when there are so many potential candidates. And I think there are 16 candidates

Many here say Toon Zelda/ Tetra, but I can't see them being adding not as clones of Zelda and Sheik. Especially when Toon Link, the most prominent toon character, is a clone of Link. And in Brawls files, Toon Zelda and Tetra were listed as Toon Zelda and Toon Sheik. I really don't expect any clone newcomers this time around, but this would add 2 females, and I love female additions.

Many on other sites like Miiverse and Youtube say Ghirahim. And I have to say, I have nothing against this. I couldn't give 2 craps on who's a one-time character and who's not. The moveset makes itself, it'd be amazing to see in action. He currently has the largest fanbase. Smash Bros could maintain his fanbase w/o him getting another Zelda appearance.
Another one-time character is Midna. She's a one-time character from before Brawl, but that doesn't mean nobody knows who she is. Since TP is the best selling Zelda with over 8 mil sales, many have experienced and enjoyed Midna's sassy personality. She's another character where all of her moves could easily be taken straight from the game, as she has quite the variety of unique attacks. Projectiles, grabs, transformations... covered. Easily. And with uniqueness playing such a big role in the newcomers so far, counting out Midna from the list of potential Zelda newcomers is just wrong. Her fanbase is one of the largest in both the West and Japan. And more people have experienced her rather than Ghirahim or Vaati. Going by sales, 8.39 mil have experienced Midna, 3.69 mil have experienced Ghirahim, and 4.93 mil have experienced Vaati (unless people bought FS for the ALttP re-release). Midna is my most wanted character, and let me tell you how she could easily be added. After Link's Final Smash, he could turn into Wolf Link, and of course Midna would be on his back with her hair hand, energy field, and twilit orbs. This would work very similar to Samus/Zero Suit Samus, and since Zelda has a one-time character that is very popular from the other largest Zelda game, we know this is very possible. TP Zelda doesn't even turn into Sheik, but the thing is, the TP designs are back, and this is the unique aspect of TP that was totally missed out on in Brawl. Link/Wolf Link and Midna, Zelda/Sheik, Samus/ Zero Suit Samus. It just... works. Given there is already a clone of Link, I doubt the few Link mains that wanted to play as the old Link would be very bothered... given Toon Link is already confirmed and has the same moveset (except side aerial).
Vaati is very under-recognized. He's a pretty cool character. And there's no doubt he'd have a unique moveset based off him being a wind mage. I just wouldn't count on it, given the developers completely left him out of Brawl. They better AT LEAST give Vaati a sticker AND a trophy this time around. I still can't believe he wasn't top priority for a gosh darn trophy in Brawl. Even when Iwata listed some of the "GBA favorites" coming to Wii U, no mention of FS or MC... I wonder if Capcom will ever make another Zelda game... I doubt it since it's been 10 years, but they made great Zelda games.

Tingle's likelihood as a Zelda rep is way overrated IMO. Let's look at Peach and Luigi, they both have their own games, but don't take any moves from them, they only take moves from old Mario games. Now, let's take a look at what Tingle does in Zelda games: He floats with a balloon(s), and makes maps and charts. No. I do not want to see Tingle with Villager's recovery swinging around maps to hit people. That's a big no for me. However, the potential of having Tingle represent Tingle with moves from his games is ridiculous! Let's look at DK, Diddy, Yoshi, and Wario. They may exist in the Mario unizerse, but have well established series in which their designs and movesets completely derive from. I'd love to see Tingle with the rupee gun, as much as I dislike him, I would accept Tingle this way, and only this way. I see an extremely small chance he could represent Zelda well, he only had a prominent appearance in Wind Waker and Majora's Mask. Since then, he's become a recurring Easter Egg. In PH, ST, and SS he was a statue, poster, and doll. Not actually in the game, just easter eggs, and these are his 3 most recent appearance in the Zelda series if we don't count the remake we aleady got a character for, Toon Link. Tingle being a Tingle character could get a new game localized, there hasn't been one since 2009 and they've all been Japan-only, although it is said this is not due to him not being popular in the West, it is because the games theme was found too sexual to be localized. Yea... that's kind of weird. I'm sure they could make a world-wide non sexual Tingle game for the 3ds.
Impa is the 4th most recurring character in the series. I think she has a pretty decent shot. If she gets in 2 more games, and Ganon doesn't, she'll officially be just as recurring as Ganon himself. Impa has been in 8 games (just under half), Ganon has been in 10 games (just over half). Since Ganon is already part of Ganondorf in Brawl, I think it should stay that way, so I won't discuss him, on to Impa. Impa may have appeared in many games, but she often, like Tingle, has basically no role. Her most prominent appearances are OoT and SS. A major game, and a recent game. After being in the first 2 Zeldas she's had quite the array of appearances and sometimes funny character art. But the design and Skyward Sword did it all right. She's fierce, she's skinny, she has weapons, she has magic, and like all Impas, she protects Zelda. Her magic could easily differentiate her from Sheik. Sheik should definitely NOT be removed, hell no! But she wouldn't need to be like Zelda either. As we all know, their range of magic is quite different. I could even see Impa taking some moves from the Veran boss fight from Oracles of Ages, as Veran possesses Impa at the beginning of the game, that's how the game happens. Impa is not possessed during the boss fight, but t would be a neat reference, and borrowing moves is not new to Smash Bros. Unlike Toon Zelda/Tetra, there is no comparison to an already cloned version holding her back, she simply would not have to be a clone. Since her largest appearance was inbetween Brawl and Smash 4, she's got a shot. However, she almost has no fanbase, so I don't think she'd make a large affect on the game overall, or would add much hype if announced before release. Smash Bros might be able to give her popularity, return Midna's popularity, maintain Ghirahim's popularity, and bring some Tingle popularity to America. This would require 6 Zelda slots, a new transformation, and a Zelda side series slot, but I'm not going to call that impossible... the most important thing of course though is to...
Give Ganondorf a Ganondorf moveset!
Likelihood is very hard to judge... but I'll try... (sorry to those who disagree, as this is not the common opinion)

0. Unique Ganondorf
1. Impa
2. Ghirahim
3. Midna and Wolf Link
4. Tingle
5. Toon Zelda/ Tetra
6. Vaati
~Honorable mentions~
7. Twinrova
8. Masked Link
9. Happy Mask Salesman
10. Fi
11. Zant
12. Demise
13. Hilda/Ravio/Yuga
14. Groose

Want is much easier!

1. Midna
2. Ghirahim
3. Impa
3.5 Unique Ganondorf
4. Vaati
5. Tetra/Toon Zelda
7. Tingle

Spoiler

Now let's enjoy some of these great character's themes!
Midna: http://youtu.be/Vr-gy2b5TlY
http://youtu.be/iHdm-iKQNLo
Ghirahim: http://youtu.be/g6oYvvwnRvs
http://youtu.be/pin49wlkADI
http://youtu.be/EDdg-93hjKQ
Impa: http://youtu.be/iRTz7UwPWko
Vaati: http://youtu.be/jvDPzCmIdQA
http://youtu.be/tR_FLm7cSbE
http://youtu.be/6ZiNJkTEGHQ
http://youtu.be/viS4MJTqzWs
Tetra: http://youtu.be/KUAIXb_BAjI
Tingle: http://youtu.be/U08CPNf81_M
Twinrova: http://youtu.be/yebtzASTRj8
Happy Mask Salesman: http://youtu.be/W9mFhtfPFDc
Fi: http://youtu.be/Q_648bSNXto
Zant: http://youtu.be/rHi2TVUVQXs
Demise: http://youtu.be/wnheV2--kGo
Hilda: http://youtu.be/T3i3RCKKalE
Ravio: http://youtu.be/5hpXOykDj3w
Yuga: http://youtu.be/Oxl-n80bq_Y
http://youtu.be/9DL4jf8HDX8
http://youtu.be/7fU5IN_kTZI
http://youtu.be/bgLVI1mQPKM
Groose: http://youtu.be/3QWqRZRZ074

Don't be mad if you disagree with me, just listen to some awesome Zelda songs. I'm personally a fan of the themes for Midna, Ghirahim, Vaati, Twinrova, Happy Mask Salesman, Fi, Zant, Ravio, Yuga, and Groose. Especially Midna, Ghirahim, Twinrova, Fi, Zant, and Yuga. Especially especially Fi and Yuga.

Now I give the likelihood of Ridley and Bulborb?
Ridley
Want: 95%
Expect: 65%
Bulborb (this is that orange slug-thing from Pikmin, right?)
Want: 0.2%
Expect: 0.2%

Now I nominate somebody to be analyzed?
Hmmm...
"Tiki x5"
is that what I write?

 

[Xenigma]

Personally, I read the posts trying to justify the Stork as a plausible character and I can't shake the feeling that it's a Sandbag: mildly notable background character, no real fighting potential, fan support seems to be justified by dream movesets (in this case, using the babies). Personally I gave Sandbag a non-zero rating because I saw what it could be, but at the same time I realized that it's an extreme edge case and very worthy of all the zero ratings it got. I think it's a very similar scenario here: maybe Stork being playable makes sense to the supporters, but from the outside looking in, it seems like a fantasy that has no chance of coming true.

 

[Pacack]

Personally, I read the posts trying to justify the Stork as a plausible character and I can't shake the feeling that it's a Sandbag: mildly notable background character, no real fighting potential, fan support seems to be justified by dream movesets (in this case, using the babies). Personally I gave Sandbag a non-zero rating because I saw what it could be, but at the same time I realized that it's an extreme edge case and very worthy of all the zero ratings it got. I think it's a very similar scenario here: maybe Stork being playable makes sense to the supporters, but from the outside looking in, it seems like a fantasy that has no chance of coming true.

Sandbag is literally a punching bag. The Stork has way more potential than that. In Yoshi's Island DS, he delivers the babies to you, and those babies use various abilities that help you progress (Baby Wario using a magnet, for example). It would not be a stretch at all to give him those abilities for his specials and focus on giving him an aerial-based playstyle with non-special attacks fitting for that role. It's far less of a stretch than most anything you can come up for for Sandbag.

 

[Starcutter]

Sandbag is literally a punching bag. The Stork has way more potential than that. In Yoshi's Island DS, he delivers the babies to you, and those babies use various abilities that help you progress (Baby Wario using a magnet, for example). It would not be a stretch at all to give him those abilities for his specials and focus on giving him an aerial-based playstyle with non-special attacks fitting for that role. It's far less of a stretch than most anything you can come up for for Sandbag.

Finally someone else who knows what they are taking about! I gave up alone a while ago.

 

[Glaciacott]

It seriously feels to me like some people get attached to some random, initially hilarious idea and then suddenly they're that drunk guy in the bar pushing for the fact the United States is secretly controlled by mole people.

I wait for the huge argument thread, and after it, I have to remind you, because I seriously don't think you guys understand the opposing perspective.

IT'S A STORK

You compare it to Sandbag, and like Zenigma said, it's exactly the same, with the one huge difference that at the least we can be sure Sakurai knows about the Sandbag. The stork in the meantime is just plot device #153.
"Hey, we need babies in the story!"
"no problem, just have a stork deliver them."

That is everything that the stork is about. Do you really want that in Smash? Why? For a joke? If you like birds ... why not something that's an actual character? a Pidgit has more of a chance, at the least a Pidgit can claim having been a trophy.

Sorry, it just bothers me when people nominate joke characters and then try to sell them to everyone as something that merits as much consideration as the likes of Dark Pit. And then you talk of everyone else like they don't know what they're talking about? Tsk. FFS, people, have some standards. I can't be the only one thinking this, and if I went harsh on plasm wraith I don't see why I shouldn't go harsh on this one.

 

[Groose]

The Stork.
The Stork.
The Stork.
Hold on, guys. I need to go and get a friend to help me with this one. I'll be right back.


...
...
...

The Fragrance of Dark Coffee

So I heard you needed my help with something?
Rating the Stork's chances, is that it?

I think I can handle that one with just a single cup of coffee.

The Stork is a character in Yoshi's Island.
He's not a partner character like the baby bros are.
He's not a villain like the Kamek and Baby Bowser are.
He's more of a backseat character... actually...

...the Stork is, first and foremost, a plot device!
He's merely a convenient story element in most games.
In the DS edition, he's just a way to change between the baby characters.
He never really establishes his own character, which makes it hard to consider him an All-Star.

But despite what this board is saying, plot devices can indeed become playable.
Right now, I'm looking at a certain survivor of the Sheikah.
One certain Smasher who canonically plays songs, and does little else.

Sheik does, however, have a few telling advantages over the Stork.
Lots of people wanted that awesome Sheikah in Melee.
Virtually none want the Stork in Smash.

Furthermore, Sheik is more of an actual character.
Being built more like a traditional fighter helps.
It makes people consider you.
I don't think anyone considers the Stork... for anything, really, not just Smash.

Let me propose this... if you were to remove the Stork from future Yoshi's Island games, would people be upset?
I'd hazard a no. Only major fans of the series would even remember he was there to begin with.
Yet remove a King K. Rool from his franchise? Bitterness.
Remove Waluigi from Mario Kart! Bitterness.

Based on the Stork's unconventional build ...
...the way he just kind of blends into his games...
...his complete lack of requests...
...the sheer strangeness of the idea...
...and the fact that the primary allure to Sakurai would be utter surprise...

Stork has an absolutely minimal chance!
I'd say a .01% chance!

Hey, Stork supporters.
I'd like to address the rest of this to you.
The Stork is a character that there is no reason to expect...

...as of right now.

The Stork is just so completely irrelevant right now that his inclusion
would be stranger than the Wii Fit Trainer. At least she's the hands-down
star of her game, and directly interacts with the player.
It's a character who would really only be added for the surprise factor.

...for now.
I'd advise that you start promoting him far and wide.

When you let a doubter smell the coffee often enough, he will eventually be tempted by its aroma.
That's what I always say.

Maybe you'll spread the idea so far that by Smash 5, he'll be considered among the most requested characters!
But for now... enjoy supporting your possible, but completely unpredictable character.



​

Stork Want: 25%
I like surprises. I've said that before. But I don't like when a character with virtually no fanbase gets into the fray, and more popular and deserving characters are left out. I'm left with a bit of a dilemma here--this character could be really interesting, but the sheer time they'd pour into his complexities would definitely destroy a character with a fanbase. Overall... I wouldn't want it, but I certainly wouldn't hate it.

If you guys promote him enough and make him more from "niche discussion" to "serious choice," I'd be willing to increase my support levels; as of now they stay low. Listen to what Herr Godot said, my friends.

Zelda Newcomer: 49%
I realized something: based on the scores I'm giving to Zelda newcomers, I'd be giving a total of a 70% or higher chance for one. However... I haven't put one on a prediction roster in months. I really don't expect one. There are several solid candidates, but they all have drawbacks and competition. Overall, I'd say that it could definitely happen--Zelda is a massive franchise, as the numerous times I've cosplayed and attended concerts and events can attest to--but I'm just not quite expecting it.

Zelda Newcomer Want: 85%
Let's not be, "OMG, ZELDUR! WE GOTSTA HAVE IT!" That's now how I operate. Zelda may be one of my three favorite franchises (the contents and context of this post should tell you the other two), but not everything in it would be awesome for Smash Bros. To say my want for a newcomer, I have to break it down by character.

I never really liked Vaati, and don't really want him for Smash. The most likely Zelda newcomer, Tetra, isn't someone I'm definitely into, either. Wind Waker may be my favorite Zelda game and possibly my favorite in general, and I do main Toon Link, but I've just never really been enthused by "Tetra for Smash." It'd be even worse if she brought along a transformation. Finally, Impa... I wouldn't really care one way or another.

Now, there are three Zelda newcomers who I'd really like. Midna would be absolutely awesome, but I'm not really factoring her in here because seh's so unlikely. Tingle is near the top of my Top 10, and I would absolutely love to see him get in. Ghirahim is also in my Top 10, and I really would like to see him too.

All said, I probably would love a Zelda newcomer. I cannot give the concept 100%, however, because some of the most likely ways it will be fulfilled aren't that interesting for me.

E. Gadd x5

​

 

[Starcutter]

The Stork.
The Stork.
The Stork.
Hold on, guys. I need to go and get a friend to help me with this one. I'll be right back.


...
...
...

The Fragrance of Dark Coffee

So I heard you needed my help with something?
Rating the Stork's chances, is that it?

I think I can handle that one with just a single cup of coffee.

The Stork is a character in Yoshi's Island.
He's not a partner character like the baby bros are.
He's not a villain like the Kamek and Baby Bowser are.
He's more of a backseat character... actually...

...the Stork is, first and foremost, a plot device!
He's merely a convenient story element in most games.
In the DS edition, he's just a way to change between the baby characters.
He never really establishes his own character, which makes it hard to consider him an All-Star.

But despite what this board is saying, plot devices can indeed become playable.
Right now, I'm looking at a certain survivor of the Sheikah.
One certain Smasher who canonically plays songs, and does little else.

Sheik does, however, have a few telling advantages over the Stork.
Lots of people wanted that awesome Sheikah in Melee.
Virtually none want the Stork in Smash.

Furthermore, Sheik is more of an actual character.
Being built more like a traditional fighter helps.
It makes people consider you.
I don't think anyone considers the Stork... for anything, really, not just Smash.

Let me propose this... if you were to remove the Stork from future Yoshi's Island games, would people be upset?
I'd hazard a no. Only major fans of the series would even remember he was there to begin with.
Yet remove a King K. Rool from his franchise? Bitterness.
Remove Waluigi from Mario Kart! Bitterness.

Based on the Stork's unconventional build ...
...the way he just kind of blends into his games...
...his complete lack of requests...
...the sheer strangeness of the idea...
...and the fact that the primary allure to Sakurai would be utter surprise...

Stork has an absolutely minimal chance!
I'd say a .01% chance!

Hey, Stork supporters.
I'd like to address the rest of this to you.
The Stork is a character that there is no reason to expect...

...as of right now.

The Stork is just so completely irrelevant right now that his inclusion
would be stranger than the Wii Fit Trainer. At least she's the hands-down
star of her game, and directly interacts with the player.
It's a character who would really only be added for the surprise factor.

...for now.
I'd advise that you start promoting him far and wide.

When you let a doubter smell the coffee often enough, he will eventually be tempted by its aroma.
That's what I always say.

Maybe you'll spread the idea so far that by Smash 5, he'll be considered among the most requested characters!
But for now... enjoy supporting your possible, but completely unpredictable character.



​

...
...
....
The rest of my stuff will be added shortly.

​

I ain't even mad

 

[LoneKonWolf]

The Stork.
The Stork.
The Stork.
Hold on, guys. I need to go and get a friend to help me with this one. I'll be right back.


...
...
...

The Fragrance of Dark Coffee

So I heard you needed my help with something?
Rating the Stork's chances, is that it?

I think I can handle that one with just a single cup of coffee.

The Stork is a character in Yoshi's Island.
He's not a partner character like the baby bros are.
He's not a villain like the Kamek and Baby Bowser are.
He's more of a backseat character... actually...

...the Stork is, first and foremost, a plot device!
He's merely a convenient story element in most games.
In the DS edition, he's just a way to change between the baby characters.
He never really establishes his own character, which makes it hard to consider him an All-Star.

But despite what this board is saying, plot devices can indeed become playable.
Right now, I'm looking at a certain survivor of the Sheikah.
One certain Smasher who canonically plays songs, and does little else.

Sheik does, however, have a few telling advantages over the Stork.
Lots of people wanted that awesome Sheikah in Melee.
Virtually none want the Stork in Smash.

Furthermore, Sheik is more of an actual character.
Being built more like a traditional fighter helps.
It makes people consider you.
I don't think anyone considers the Stork... for anything, really, not just Smash.

Let me propose this... if you were to remove the Stork from future Yoshi's Island games, would people be upset?
I'd hazard a no. Only major fans of the series would even remember he was there to begin with.
Yet remove a King K. Rool from his franchise? Bitterness.
Remove Waluigi from Mario Kart! Bitterness.

Based on the Stork's unconventional build ...
...the way he just kind of blends into his games...
...his complete lack of requests...
...the sheer strangeness of the idea...
...and the fact that the primary allure to Sakurai would be utter surprise...

Stork has an absolutely minimal chance!
I'd say a .01% chance!

Hey, Stork supporters.
I'd like to address the rest of this to you.
The Stork is a character that there is no reason to expect...

...as of right now.

The Stork is just so completely irrelevant right now that his inclusion
would be stranger than the Wii Fit Trainer. At least she's the hands-down
star of her game, and directly interacts with the player.
It's a character who would really only be added for the surprise factor.

...for now.
I'd advise that you start promoting him far and wide.

When you let a doubter smell the coffee often enough, he will eventually be tempted by its aroma.
That's what I always say.

Maybe you'll spread the idea so far that by Smash 5, he'll be considered among the most requested characters!
But for now... enjoy supporting your possible, but completely unpredictable character.



​

...
...
....
The rest of my stuff will be added shortly.

​

amazingly done by the one and only groose, you even used godot one of my favorite characters of all time

 

[Groose]

Ridley
Want: 95%
Expect: 65%
Bulborb (this is that orange slug-thing from Pikmin, right?)
Want: 0.2%
Expect: 0.2%

Actually, you just predict where most people will put their likelihood at. For example, you think many people will give him 90's with some 50's, you'd predict somewhere in the middle.

Excellent post overall, though. That music section is awesome, and I'm sure @ Toxicroaker will get to it.

I ain't even mad

You'll probably be even less mad when you see that I finished the post and incorporated my want at the end.

amazingly done by the one and only groose, you even used godot one of my favorite characters of all time

I'm trying to keep those types of posts more in character. I think that's the way Godot would speak, so that's how I wrote him.

I eventually plan on branching out and working in other series, too. Kid Icarus and Star Fox are two I mean to write one with.

DAY OVER

...you guys made the poor babies cry...
... and our next character is having trouble fitting through the door...​

 

[Groose]

Stork (Yoshi's Island)
0.97% chance
9.75% want
I'm really too burnt out to make a witty remark here. Let me just say this: let's not carry the arguing from yesterday into today. We already have a controversial character up today, and it would be a real hassle.

Zelda Newcomer
53.44% chance
64.67% want
You often hear people say nowadays that Zelda doesn't need a newcomer, or that there aren't any good candidates. You guys, however, rated one as likely and wanted. You just got the inner Zelda nerd inside of me excited. I hate you all.

Today we're rating Bulborb in chance and want. @MargnetMan23 hasn't been seen in months. Will he come back to vote on the character he nominated to the top? ...I'd say that's the most interesting story surrounding Bulborb today. In addition to Bulborb... oh, dear. We seem to be rating Ridley. Please rate Ridley in chance and want. Can the big guy hold onto his title of most wanted newcomer? Or will King K. Rool swipe that away from him?

Tomorrow should be an interesting day. We're going to start it off with an evil king, and then have a stage rating. Please predict how King Boo and a Rhythm Heaven Stage will do in tomorrow's match.

Notice: The OP is outdated. I know. I'll get to it.

 

[LoneKonWolf]

I'm trying to keep those types of posts more in character. I think that's the way Godot would speak, so that's how I wrote him.

I eventually plan on branching out and working in other series, too. Kid Icarus and Star Fox are two I mean to write one with.

well then if you need any help with starfox's, quotes, images, gifs, ect, i'm the wolf that can pull it off,

 

[Groose]

well then if you need any help with starfox's, quotes, images, gifs, ect, i'm the wolf that can pull it off,

Danke schoen.

Anyway, I'm not sure how likely an update will be tomorrow. I've been neglecting sleep for the past few days, so I think I may end up taking a day off. I was planning on it today, but I needed to wrap up the Stork debate before things got out of hand.

Can't say for sure yet, but I just wanted to give you all a heads up.

 

[Starcutter]

I apologize the arguing I may have caused.

Anyway, as usual, I'll have my rating in tomorrow.

 

[Chandeelure]

-Bulborb:
Chances: 1%
Want: 3%

-Ridley:
Chances: 50%
Want: 40%

-King Boo Prediction: 4%

-Rhythm Heaven Stage Prediction: 5%

-Nomination:Toon Zelda/Tetra X5

 

[Smasher 101]

@ Mega Bidoof wins nominations for Stork, and @ Glaciacott wins for Zelda newcomer.

Bulborb's chances and want: 0% - No.

Ridley's chances: 80% - The most wanted character outside of Japan. Should Metroid get a second slot, which is likely in my eyes, it would definitely, definitely be Ridley. Pyrosphere causes a little doubt, but I still think he's got a good shot.
Want: 100% - Metroid really should get a character that isn't Samus already. Plus Ridley's an all-star and I think I'd enjoy playing as him.

King Boo prediction: 0.89%
Rhythm Heaven Stage: 25.25%

Takamaru x5

 

[Hippopotasauce]

Bulborb Likelihood: 0.01%
Want: 10%

Ridley Likelihood: 48%
Want: 50%

King Boo: 1.12%

Rhythm Heaven Stage: 43.25%

No Namco x5

 

[Toxicroaker]

IT'S NOT LIKE I'M ARGUING THAT HE'S IN 100%!!

I'm only trying to say he has a slim chance. like, more than none. 0% is none.

Yes, I know that you aren't arguing for 100%. You just asked for an explanation, so I gave you one. I am sorry if I came off as rude.

 

[Mega Bidoof]

@ Mega Bidoof wins nominations for Stork

So what exactly does this mean?
Do I get a prize or something?

 

[Hippopotasauce]

So what exactly does this mean?
Do I get a prize or something?

You get five extra nominations.
Bidoof x10, for example.

 

[Smasher 101]

So what exactly does this mean?
Do I get a prize or something?

You get five bonus nominations to use along with your daily five. You can use them whenever you want.

annnnnnnd ninja'd

 

[Xenigma]

Bulborb - 0%
IT'S TOO BIG
I think Pikmin in general is unlikely to see a second character, but Bulborb has the baser problem of being a generic enemy within the series. To use a somewhat unfair analogy, Bulborbs are to Pikmin what Goombas are to Mario: iconic enemies to their series, sure, but worthy of being playable in Smash, not even remotely. If Sakurai wants to pick a second Pikmin character, expect him to pick an actual character.
Want - 0% - Waste of a slot.

Ridley - 90%
HE'S ALSO TOO BIG
I've said my piece on Ridley three times now, so I'll be brief: extremely popular character, extremely popular request for Smash, from an underrepresented series, and teasing Pyrosphere for over half a year now without actually revealing him as a stage element continues to strengthen the case that he isn't actually a stage element and Sakurai wants to build hype for an eventual reveal of him as an actual character. Every time we rerate Ridley I look back on this rating and wonder why I rated so high, but every time I think about why I chose it in the first place and I see just how sensible it really is.
Want - 50% - I'm not really a fan, but he honestly deserves to be in Smash more than any other character at this point.

King Boo Prediction - 0.9%
Can't imagine it sees that much support in the post-Rosalina world.

Rhythm Heaven Stage Prediction - 38%
I feel like I should have to predict much higher, but users seem reluctant to rate stages highly even if they make tons of sense.

Nominations
Tetra x5

 

[Mega Bidoof]

Bulborb:
Prediction- 0.01%
No please. Pikmin doesn't need a newcomer at the moment, and even if it got one, Bulborb can't really do anything!

Want- 0%
Just please, God no.


Ridley:
Prediction- 90%
Metroid NEEDS a newcomer, and Ridley deserves this role! As long as Sakurai is not a toobiggot, he is practically shoe-in!

Want- 100%
IT'S OVER NINE THOUSAAAAAAAAAND!!!!!!


King Boo Predict.- 5%

Rhythm Heaven Stage Predict.- 25%

You get five extra nominations.
Bidoof x10, for example.

Hmmmmm.....
I could use this wisely on someone like Sanbag, or I could be a complete troll. Seriousness vs. troll......

I CHOOSE TROLL!!!

X10 Standalone Landmaster!

 

[colder_than_ice]

Bulborb
Chance: 0% - No
Want: 70% - Yes

The infamous Ridley
Chance: 68% - The big thing Ridley has going for him is his huge popularity, unfortunately it is almost entirely western. It's interesting to note that Ridley is one of the only Nintendo characters that has had at least a cameo in all three SSB titles without being playable. He is the most likely choice for a second Metroid character, although it wouldn't surprise me too much if he was brought back as a boss once again.

Also there's the issue of his size, he's just too small. Doesn't Nintendo know that anything purple needs to be a least 400 feet tall to be taken seriously.

Want: 74% - Everybody loves Ridley

King Boo prediction: 1.4%

Rhythm Heaven stage prediction: 7.4%

Nominations: Improved Stage Builder x5

 

[andimidna]

So I'm supposed to vote on Bulborb and Ridley's chances, and then predict King Boo's?

 

[Chandeelure]

So I'm supposed to vote on Bulborb and Ridley's chances, and then predict King Boo's?

-Bulborb:
Chances:
Want:

-Ridley:
Chances:
Want:

-King Boo Prediction:

-Rhythm Heaven Stage Prediction:

-Nomination: ... X5

I CHOOSE TROLL!!!

X10 Standalone Landmaster!

 

[BKupa666]

Ridley Want and Chance: 90%

Looking objectively at the series' previous and current character inclusion criteria, he's got a fantastic shot. Anything that could keep him out (e.g. Sakurai being a TooBigot) is nothing we can predict at this point.

King Boo Prediction: 7.6%
Rhythm Heaven Stage Prediction: 41.5%

Nominate The Gangplank Galleon as a stage x5

 

[PK_Wonder]

Bulborb - 0.15%
Want - 0%

Ridley - 90% the most likely character other than Mewtwo, hands-down.
Want - 100%, the only character who I will truly be devastated about.

predict King Boo 2%
predict Rhythm Heaven stage 30%

Paper Mario "Stage" stage x5

 

[LoneKonWolf]

Hmmmmm.....
I could use this wisely on someone like Sanbag, or I could be a complete troll. Seriousness vs. troll......

I CHOOSE TROLL!!!

X10 Standalone Landmaster!

no seriously I do, this one would be awesome
anywho, i'll post my rating later

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Bulborb Chances - 0%

First off, the Bulborb is just a generic enemy in Pikmin. Iconic to Pikmin, but also generic. The only generic enemy I could have ever seen as being playable in a Smash game was the Shy Guy, and that one has pretty much been disconfirmed, but that last part is irrelevant. Not gonna get into that of course. If Pikmin were to get another character, which is already unlikely as is, it would more than likely be another one of the Captains. I guess the Plasm Wraith is eligible as well, just extremely unlikely, but not as much as the Bulborb.

Second, the only things Bulborbs do is sleep, walk, and...well, eat Pikmin. That's literally it's only means of attacking and defending itself aside from shaking Pikmin off when it's getting swarmed. It can't do anything else, having only two legs, no arms, no long tongue, no special powers of any kind, and not even a tail. At least Ivysaur has four legs and some moveable vines in place of arms, along with a bud on it's back that it uses for a few attacks.

It's awkward body shape and lack of abilities, combined with just being a generic enemy in the Pikmin franchise ultimately makes it ineligible for Smash in my book. There is literally nothing going for the Bulborb that supports it as being eligible for Smash aside from being an iconic enemy from a small Nintendo franchise, which still doesn't add much to it's chance.

Want - 0%

Heaven forbid. The Bulborb has next to no potential at all as I explained above, it'd be a waste of a slot.

Ridley Chance - 85%

Let's see, we've seen many, MANY pics of the Pyrosphere, no Ridley in sight, nor any visible stage hazard at all for that matter. If Ridley was a hazard, he would probably be a major problem when fighting on the stage, so it would've made more sense to show him earlier, instead of trying to hype up a stage hazard of all bloody things. I'm almost certain that the Pyrosphere won't have any hazards at all at this point.

Plus, Ridley is long overdue for Smash, he's practically the main antagonist of the Metroid franchise, and has a lot of fan support. (although he isn't all that popular of a choice in Japan I believe..) Loads of potential.

Want - 100%

Yes please!

King Boo Prediction - 5.12%

Eh, I'm not too sure on this one. Could be a tad bit higher, or even closer to zero in chance than this.

Rhythm Heaven Stage Prediction - 44.56%

Confident it will be around here.

Nominations: 2 DK Newcomers x5.

 

[Pacack]

Bulborb:

Chance: 1%
Louis, the Captain Trio, and the Plasm Wraith are all ahead of this poor guy. Maybe as an assist?

Want: 4%
Eh. Not sure what it could do, honestly.

Ridley:

Oh, boy.

Pros:
Gigantic popularity.
No big competition within his franchise.
Hugely important as Metroid's star villain (arguably, at least) and Samus' rival.
Roles have only grown throughout the SSB franchise. First a stage element/easter egg, then a trophy, then as two bosses and multiple trophies and stickers. The next logical step would be as a playable character.
Teasing from Sakurai.

Cons:
Doesn't have a large Japanese fanbase.
Um...Slightly more difficult to implement than other characters due to awkward proportions? (This is kinda irrelevant since Other M's design doesn't share the issues, but I'm trying to be thorough.)

Yeah, there's not actually much going against Ridley. He's certainly one of the most likely candidates. I'd put him behind only Palutena, who is in a very good position due to her leak, which I personally believe to be legitimate. King K. Rool is also strong, but he has much more competition within his own series and has, admittedly, been a bit neglected in recent years.

Chance: 92%

Want: 85%
Definitely one of my more wanted newcomers that's actually likely. (He's behind Pac-Man, Palutena, and about even with Takamaru.) I also just want a dragon in general, and, if I can't have Tiki, I want Ridley. I mean, who doesn't like dragons?

Predictions:

King Boo: 3.4%
Should be interesting.

Rhythm Haven Stage: 37%
Not expecting as high as the others are, but still a very decent chance.

 

[praline]

Bulborb want and chance 0%

Ridley want 89% chance 68%

 

[andimidna]

-Bulborb:
Chances: 0.1%
Want: 0.1%

-Ridley:
Chances: 65%
Want: 95%

-King Boo Prediction: 12%

-Rhythm Heaven Stage Prediction: 43%

-4 FE characters (returning and newcomers): ... X5

"Pic of the day. This dog is huge… Wait, no, the playable characters are small. The Smash Bros. series doesn't always stay true to scale."

I change my likelihood to 75%!!!

 

[andimidna]

Bulborb:

Chance: 1%
Louis, the Captain Trio, and the Plasm Wraith are all ahead of this poor guy. Maybe as an assist?

Want: 4%
Eh. Not sure what it could do, honestly.

Ridley:

Oh, boy.

Pros:
Gigantic popularity.
No big competition within his franchise.
Hugely important as Metroid's star villain (arguably, at least) and Samus' rival.
Roles have only grown throughout the SSB franchise. First a stage element/easter egg, then a trophy, then as two bosses and multiple trophies and stickers. The next logical step would be as a playable character.
Teasing from Sakurai.

Cons:
Doesn't have a large Japanese fanbase.
Um...Slightly more difficult to implement than other characters due to awkward proportions? (This is kinda irrelevant since Other M's design doesn't share the issues, but I'm trying to be thorough.)

Yeah, there's not actually much going against Ridley. He's certainly one of the most likely candidates. I'd put him behind only Palutena, who is in a very good position due to her leak, which I personally believe to be legitimate. King K. Rool is also strong, but he has much more competition within his own series and has, admittedly, been a bit neglected in recent years.

Chance: 88%

Want: 85%
Definitely one of my more wanted newcomers that's actually likely. (He's behind Pac-Man, Palutena, and about even with Takamaru.) I also just want a dragon in general, and, if I can't have Tiki, I want Ridley. I mean, who doesn't like dragons?

Predictions:

King Boo: 3.4%
Should be interesting.

Rhythm Haven Stage: 37%
Not expecting as high as the others are, but still a very decent chance.

That's a large amount of reasoning, I agree that Ridley is a pretty big deal.
Seeing a Ridley vs Tiki fight would make me instantly buy 10 copies.

Oops. I guess it's too late for me to think to edit, sorry. Tired.

 

[Pacack]

That's a large amount of reasoning, I agree that Ridley is a pretty big deal.
Seeing a Ridley vs Tiki fight would make me instantly buy 10 copies.

Oops. I guess it's too late for me to think to edit, sorry. Tired.

I see that you see what I did there

I would go insane over a Ridley vs. Tiki fight. That would make my life.

 

[Arcanir]

Abstaining from Bulborb.

Ridley
Chances: 89%
I still think he has a great chance, many of the points put against him don't hold compared to the numerous counterpoints the games have already presented and he's a highly wanted character in the west from a series where he has a lot of importance to. His only major flaw I'd say is his lack of a Japanese fanbase, which has been mitigated somewhat by the addition of Sonic and especially Little Mac.

So by and large, the character has a lot going for him and little hindering him, it all comes down to Sakurai.

Want: 100%
One of the characters I want the most, I really hope he gets in.

 

[KingofPhantoms]

The pic of the day....it's caption.

The Too Big argument is pretty much dead.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Bulborb:
Chance: 0%
His best chance is being incorporated into Louie's moveset. That's not exactly a great chance to begin with though.
Absolutely no hope as his own character.

Want: 0%
I'm sorry, but no.

Ridley:
Chance: 58%
Ridley seems like an obvious choice...but he also seemed like an obvious choice since Melee. Two iterations later, and Ridley still hasn't been playable. However with the shortage of Nintendo characters with ACTUAL star power now, Ridley's pretty much top tier. It's just whether or not Sakurai includes him.

Want: 75%
I'm not exactly a big(ha) Ridley fan, but he's certainly deserving of the position, and probably more deserving than even some characters who are currently in Smash, although I won't name individuals. Ridley's supporters have been waiting (semi) patiently for 15 damn years for his inclusion, and if nothing else it's something I can respect and relate to being a Toad fan.

King Boo prediction: 5%
Can't see many thinking we'll get a sixth Mario character, much less it being King Boo. If Luigi breaks away as a rep for his own series though King Boo is the go to guy for a second Luigi's Mansion rep. Or maybe E. Gadd.

Rhythm Heaven stage prediction: 65%
Hanenbow got a stage in Brawl. Hanenbow. Rhythm Heaven is far more likely as it's a more popular franchise, and one that lends itself better to a stage than a character.

Nominations: Louie X 5(continuing the Pikmin theme)

 

[Starbound]

Bulborb: Double 0%s for me

Ridley:
Ah the big star of the today's show. The character who truly is larger than life (at least in Smash Bros. )

I'm very neutral to the idea of including big ol' Ridley. I like air-based characters, so if Ridley can provide something hugely awesome for me in that regard (perhaps the anti-thesis of Little Mac, especially in size), I'm cool with it. But I have no real big attachment to the character, and thus the size of my hype for the character depends on the moveset.

That's mostly where I stand on wanting the big guy. In terms of actual chances, I'm very much on the big ol' fence. On one big hand, Sakurai did say that putting the big guy in was impossible. But on the other big hand, Sakurai also said that Animal Crossing characters wouldn't be in Smash... and look what we have now. So I think it's a massive cointoss here, and it hugely depends on if Sakurai changes his mind on the inclusion of this larger than life character.

So I'll give him two big ol' 50%s from me.

5x nominations for the not so big Athena Cykes

 

[Pacack]

Added four percent to my chance score for Ridley because of Sakurai's most recent comment about Smash and canon size.

 

[Kenith]

Bulborb:
Chance: 0%. What?
Want: 0%. ...What?
Ridley:
Chance: 80%. Main Metroid villain, really unique, space dragon, blah blah blah blah blah
Want: 100%. Ridley would not only please me, but would please countless Nintendo fans who have been waiting a decade for this.
Please make it happen this time.

King Boo: 10%.
Rhythm Heaven stage: 12%.

Nominations: Midna x5. Does this count after yesterday?