Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[Capybara Gaming]

That's hinting at a possibility of a boss or a stage hazard. The author of this article even states that this statement from Sakurai is very ambigious in nature. It didn't directly state either so it doesn't confirm it either way.

Still - the fact that we've only seen him on this particular stage, and with multiple players all at once seems to lean towards Stage Hazard.

 

[Gunla]

Still - the fact that we've only seen him on this particular stage, and with multiple players all at once seems to lean towards Stage Hazard.

Have we seen a boss on multiple stages excluding the Galleom in Smash?
Boss Battle mode had Co-Op. This could easily have been extended or boosted in playability.
I'm just saying that it's still very up in the air.

 

[False Sense]

B] Just where do you think that Metroid will return as an Assist?

Well, I would think that since they're the namesake of their series, it might be nice to keep them as an assist. We don't know for sure, but it's quite possible.

Now then... I think I'll abstain from the Bulborb thing and get right into Ridley. I'm probably going to regret giving this high a rating, but...

Chance: 80% (Please don't jinx it)

Frankly, the evidence is piling up in Ridley's favor. Too big? That was a stupid argument to begin with, and it's been officially killed today. By a puppy. Stage hazard? Well, my impression of that comment was that he's either a stage hazard, or perhaps playable. Well, it's been almost half a year since the Pyrosphere was revealed, we've had numerous pictures and actual footage of the stage, and no Ridley. So, that leans towards playable. And I don't think the "Ridley hazard isn't complete" argument is particularly valid, as I doubt they would show off an unfinished stage. ESPECIALLY when we've seen very few total so far, which I think implies that there are many stages being worked on that AREN'T complete. It seems the Pyrosphere is likely complete at this point. And then of course there's other bits that help Ridley, such as the reveal of Little Mac. Little Mac indicates that Sakurai does indeed listen to more Western audiences, and that characters can be given "doubt treatment," where Sakurai gives us information that makes it look like the character won't be appearing (neutral Boxing arena, the Villager using boxing gloves), only to flip things around and reveal the character. Ridley could be getting that same, trollish treatment.

That's not even mentioning that Ridley is one of the very few true Nintendo all-stars we have left. So...

Want: 100%

I'll be honest here. I've never played a single Metroid game in my life. But as I've said, Ridley is one of the few true all-stars we don't have on the roster. In my mind, he's one of the most deserving characters out there, and for all the unnecessary controversy he receives, I really want him in the next game.

That and I really want to rub it in all the haters faces.

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Have we seen a boss on multiple stages excluding the Galleom?
Boss Battle mode had Co-Op. This could easily have been extended or boosted in playability.
I'm just saying that it's still very up in the air.

Yes, but we've seen an image of 3 characters and the Devil. Co-Op only had 2. Hmmmm...

 

[Capybara Gaming]

...I think I'll abstain from the stork....

Stork? What stork?

 

[False Sense]

Stork? What stork?

Oh shoot, something leftover from a post I never made. Ignore that.

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Oh shoot, something leftover from a post I never made. Ignore that.

Oh yeah, that irritates me too.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Oh shoot, something leftover from a post I never made. Ignore that.

For a moment I actually thought you meant Ridley. Hey, I'm sure his Other M beak could go for being a stork.

 

[False Sense]

For a moment I actually thought you meant Ridley. Hey, I'm sure his Other M beak could go for being a stork.

Can we stop drawing attention to a little typing mistake I made and get back to rating chances?
Please...

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Can we stop drawing attention to a little typing mistake I made and get back to rating chances?
Please...

Spoiler - It was actually intentional

Ridley and Stork are ONE AND THE SAME

2spooky4you

 

[Glaciacott]

Bulborb
Chance - 0%
Want - 0%

I look forward to Louie to actually consider a second Pikmin character

Ridley
Chance - 80%
Everything has been said before, so I'm keeping it simple. The evidence is mounting in his favor: the desire is huge, Sakurai knows about how much desire there is for Ridley, the Other M model is easier to work with in terms of proportions, Pyrosphere still has no stage hazard and is becoming the Boxing Ring 2.0 (Palutena's Temple being the Boxing Ring 3.0).
I think we may get lucky with this one guys. I think it's happening.

Want - 100%
With Little Mac in, Ridley has gone to second most wanted, only topped by Palutena. Also, I look forward to living the day of Smashboards losing it upon Ridley's reveal. It would seriously, in my opinion, challenge such historical moments as Sonic in Brawl and Mega Man during E3. Mostly since we've just wanted it for sooo long.

Prediction
King Boo - 3.6%
Rhythm Heaven stage - 14.7% ... I still haven't gotten a feel when it comes to predicting stages.

Nominations
x10 Magolor

 

[Headcrab Jackalope]

Bulborb

Chance: 4%- A new Pikmin character is very unlikely, and Bulborb won't happen if there is one. It does have potential to be unique though.

Want: 85%- Bulborbs are some of my favorite video game enemies, but I'd prefer Louie, Alph, or Plasm Wraith. (Although the Bulborb has amazing palette swap potential)
Also I have a Bulborb specials moveset:

Neutral-B: Dwarf Bulborbs- Bulborb does its majestic call, and a Dwarf Bulborb comes on to the stage. It will wander around the stage, turning around at ledges and walls, and attacking enemies when they get close. They despawn after a little bit. Maximum of two at once.

Side-B: Chomp- Bulborb bites an opponent, and then swallows it whole. The opponent is um, ejected out, dealing decent damage and slightly healing Bulborb.

Up-B: Whiptongue Tether- A Whiptongue Bulborb appears out of nowhere and latches on to the Bulborb. The Whiptongue then launches its tongue up diagonally, similar to Olimar's Up-B.

Down-B: Sleep- The Bulborb falls asleep. If attacked while sleeping, it will wake up and gain increased attack power and speed for a few seconds. This works good as a counter. If it is not attacked, it sleeps for a shorter time than Jigglypuff's Rest.

Ridley

Chance: 85%- Sakurai knows of his love, and I doubt he will reject him again.

Want: 100%- Despite never playing a Metroid game, I love his personality and design.

King Boo Prediction

10.2%- Not likely because of Rosalina, but still kinda possible.

Rhythm Heaven Stage

3.7%- Don't know what to predict...

Nominations

I look forward to Louie to actually consider a second Pikmin character

As you wish...

Louie x5

 

[TheMysterious2634]

Bulborb
Chance- 3.5%
Want- 0%
THE WALKING POWER SO SCARY.

Ridley...oh boy...
Chance- 65% More likely than not. However, the whole Little Mac western popularity thing. What if Sakurai plans on grantingonewish in each region. What then? On the other hand, There are a few slight hints to Ridley.
Want- 45%
I think I'll explode...
OKAY. If I said I was indifferent, I would be lying. Most of me doesn't want to see Ridley in the next game. And the fan war? LEAVE. ME. OUT. OF. IT.
SAKURAI JUST CONFIRM OR DISCONFIRM HIM ALREADY.
The (Hard) Ridley Supporters- You point out any tiny detail and say it mean Ridley has a better chance now. Hell, you could point out the rainbow in that one Peach picture and say the purple represents Ridley being in the game if this goes on much longer. Just...calm yourselves. I know what it's like to want a person in the game really bad. We all do. So calm down. Please. Just please.
The TooBigots (as referred to by the Ridley supporters)- Okay, the Ridley size argument is SOOOOOO mid 2013. It has been killed now. If you don't want Ridley, just state you don't want him. K? I thought you didn't exist anymore...so yeah.
I hope everyone can understand where I'm coming from here. That is all.

King Boo- 8.75%
I didn't think there was actually any support for this, but okay. Seems more like a stage hazard to me.
Rhythm Heaven Stage- 50% Not impossible, hopefully it would have nice music though.

x5 Tiki

 

[PK_Wonder]

Here's my view on it; Sakurai is 100% aware of the massive amount of wantage for Ridley in the West. He's probably aware of the controversy surrounding him and his size, be it a meme or not. But the majority of Smash fans do genuinely want him. Just look at the 15,000+ comments on Smashboards Ridley page. The general newcomer discussion page doesn't have that many comments.

Even if Sakurai were to despise Ridley, he still is going to tread lightly and seriously consider the character. If he is too much of a challenge to program, he will give him some form of spotlight like he did in Brawl. but Ridley is probably hands-down the most requested first party character in the world, and would generate massive amounts of hype. Hype best saved for E3. There would be vocal disappointment if he were relegated to a mere Assist Trophy, stage hazard, or boss again. Meanwhile, if he is incorporated right the haters would have less to hate about. "Hey, I was proven wrong and the character was actually made a functional fighter." is a lot less peeved than "Hundreds of thousands of fans have been waiting for this character since Melee and he still isn't in. Screw you, Sakurai."

He is teasing us, just like he did Little Mac and is Palutena. He is fully aware of what he is doing.

The biggest character fan base is not going to shut up until Ridley gets in. I know I won't. Sakurai realized this after Ridley was two bosses in Brawl; that wasn't satisfying enough. He will do everything he can to make him a reality.

 

[Erimir]

Bulborb

Yeah, people are really clamoring to play as Bulborb...

Bulborb chance: 0%

Bulborb want: 0%

Ridley

So, back to Ridley.

What's new from last time, which was over two months ago?

Well, I made my model. It thinks there's a 25-66% chance of a new Metroid slot. That would seem about right... if not for the massive fan demand for Ridley. Ridley is pretty much the driver here. Metroid has enough sales to justify more characters (it has higher sales than Star Fox, for example), but it's a sparse series when it comes to characters. The Prime series and The Other M have changed this a bit though. Even so, they're mostly one-time characters (the other hunters, MB, Anthony Higgs) or would have generic space marine move sets (Anthony Higgs, Adam Malkovitch).

Nothing. To clarify, we've learned nothing about the Pyrosphere. We don't know if it even has any stage hazards, although I think lava/molten metal/whatever seems more likely than Ridley (given previous Metroid stages). Making Ridley a stage hazard would seem kind of a big step down for him, and not a very good use of him. He'd be much better suited to be an AT if he were going to be reduced in role. Speaking of which...

Mother Brain! We saw her, and she's huge. And awesome. A great inclusion for the Metroid series. But it makes me think we're unlikely to get another huge Metroid boss as an AT... Sakurai might've been referring to her with that comment about the Pyrosphere. You know who would make a good boss though? Kraid.

We got Little Mac, another character far more popular in the West. There isn't a whole lot to justify his inclusion other than general retro representation or satisfying Western Smash fans, because the demand for Punch-Out!! games isn't that high. This indicates he might listen to us about Ridley too. I mean, those two for Western fan service wouldn't be too much to ask, would it?

Then there was today's Miiverse comment, which, well... Sakurai could be saying things like that without trying to tell us anything about Ridley. At the very least it shows that the "too big" argument is pretty weak, at best it's a deliberate wink at the Ridley debate.

So, that Pyrosphere comment... I think it's more likely that comment was foreshadowing Ridley as playable rather than as a stage hazard, or else just referring to any Metroid ATs (which might not just be Mother Brain) or just setting the mood. He could be a stage hazard, but I don't see the purpose of Sakurai dragging it out so long. He wanted to build up the disappointment? If Ridley's not a playable character, I doubt it's because he's been demoted to stage hazard. At that point, I'd rather they just port in the boss battles from Brawl with upgraded graphics and tweaks.

All in all, I think these factors go in Ridley's favor and justify an increase. That said, this game won't have everyone we want, and Ridley could easily miss out. Again.

Ridley chances: 81%
Last time I gave him a 70%. I was never convinced by the too big argument, so on that count, the Miiverse comment only matters if I think he's doing a nudge-nudge-wink-wink about Ridley, which I think is possible but I dunno. Mother Brain and Little Mac are both helpful to him I think, I'm a little bit more skeptical than others about him... we were burned bad last time, and Brawl was arguably the best time to include him, since between Melee and Brawl had come the Metroid Prime Trilogy, Metroid Fusion and Metroid Zero Mission. But the competition is also a lot weaker this time.

Ridley want: 100%
I'm so on board for this.

Predictions:
King Boo: 3%
Rhythm Heaven stage: 50%

Nominations:
Paper Mario x5

 

[BKupa666]

I'm a tad surprised, BKupa. I know you don't have the biggest connection to the Metroid series, but I thought you were 100% behind Ridley.

I am 100% behind Ridley, in that I'm not partially behind him, but 90% is as high as I can honestly give a character I have no personal connection with. 90% definitely isn't anything to sneeze at, though.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

I am 100% behind Ridley, in that I'm not partially behind him, but 90% is as high as I can honestly give a character I have no personal connection with. 90% definitely isn't anything to sneeze at, though.

Basically, only K.Rool would get that lofty 100%. Right?

 

[Mario.Man]

Ridley Chance 65% - He's one of the more requested characters in the west, and he can easily have a unique move-set. Sakurai even had some kind of idea how he'd make Ridley when asked about it in his NP interview. He could be a boss again but Little Mac's inclusion possibly shows that the west's requests for playable characters are being considered and no, he's not too big.

Ridley Want 40% - I've got a whole laundry list of characters I'd rather have than Ridley and its not because I don't like him, its just I never really got into Metroid. That said I see loads of potential for this character and if he does get in I will definitely give him a try.

Bulborb Chance - 1% I only give him/her/it? 1% because anything could happen.
Bulborb Want -10% Only to see what he/she/it would play like.

King Boo prediction 2% - Putting him in before Bowser Jr., Paper Mario, Toad, or Waluigi? Probably not.

Nominate Toon Zelda/Phantom Zelda x5

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Bulb orb

0% on both want and chance


Ridley

Chance 90%
(First it was 35% for then when pyrosphere and evidence came in 60% and from the quote sakurai gave today this)
Ridley is the most wanted newcomer there literally a war on this with haters and wanters
One at a time of counter attacking

Ridley is too big :that just got disproved today by sakurai's quote which a this

Sakurai said:
«This dog is huge... Wait, no, the playable characters are small. The Smash Bros. series doesn't always stay true to scale.» 19.Feb.2014

So he's saying in a funny way that size does not matter to him at all (stage elements/pokeball pokemon/nothing)
Oh yea also he's never ben playable in anything everybody who has ben giant gets shruken when playable

Ridley lack of support/controversial: little mac disproved this on February 13th little mac is playable and he had controversial/lack of support in japan so sakurai might be listening to western and eastern request not just eastern anymore

Lack of moveset: look at the ridley support thread so many ideas for his moveset

Issues with balance: yes but don't forget namco is helping sakurai this time and plus sakurai could figure it out and plus its impossible to make everything 100% balanced (I mean does everything have to be 100% balanced)

Stage hazard : he would have confirmed that a long time ago besides the hole (the one he made) was made for him to escape so wouldn't that mean he left already and plus Feliciafan444 mentioned something if the stage is shown wouldn't characters on it mean its almost 100% complete and for how long it's shown wouldn't that mean pyrosphere is already complete

And from all of the fan support and evidence

I case I did not say it enough Feliciafan444 explained it a lot better than me in these videos

Want 100%
I've ben supporting him since day 1

 

[NickerBocker]

Bulborb

Not much to say about it other than being a generic enemy in a game that doesnt have much going for it In terms of newcomers.
Chance: 0.005%
Want: 0%

Ridley

I think the best way to do this one is a pros/cons list, so without further adieu...
Lets start with the bad news
Cons:

• Possible stage hazard
• Former boss who may retain his role
• Too big (?)

Pros:

• Metroid both needs and deserves a new slot
• Ridley is the only prominent character at this point in time.
• He has a large fan base and with that a lot of popularity
• Movement to make him a playable character since post Brawl.
• No other real choices for a 3rd Metroid slot to not even consider Ridley.

Concerning the Ridley is too big theory, it falls apart becasue Smash is not canon, we have seen him at a manageable size in a Smash game (melee intro) And we have seen characters resized for the purpose of the game. Case closed.

Chance: 70%
Want: 90%

King Boo: 1.3%
Rhythm Heaven Stage: 20.3%

Nominations:
K Rool x5

 

[AustarusIV]

Welp, I get to rate some characters.

Bulborb
Want: 0%
I'm personally satisfied with how Pikmin's represented (with just Olimar and some stages). I also can't think of anything particularly interesting about this character.

Chance: 0%
Hmmm.....Nope.

Ridley
Want: 100%
Hands down, my most wanted playable character for SSB4. I've been wanting to play as Ridley ever since I saw him flying in the background on Planet Zebes in Smash 64. He's also a pretty big (har har) deal for me regarding my purchases of both the Wii U and 3DS versions. If he isn't playable, then I have no interest in getting the one for Wii U.

Chance: 75%
Before, I would have rated his chances as being somewhere between 60-70%. Now I'm feeling more and more hopeful about his chances, and that he's actually going to be revealed soon. However, I'm still cautious over the fact that he might be a stage hazard.

 

[lightdasher]

Bulborb
Want 2%
Ehh, Bulbmin would be better.

Chance, playable? 0% stage hazard? 30% At? 70%

Ridley
Want : -100%
Yeah, I'm an anti Ridley
Chance : Playable? 55% Stage hazard? 30% At? 15%

 

[cephalopod17]

Bulborb

Chance: .5%
A new Pikmin character is not likely and it would most likely go to Louie. Plus, it would be hard (Even for Sakurai) to make Bulborb work

Want: 1%
It would be cool I suppose, but I don't really want another Pikmin character.

Ridley

Chance: 85%
I can't say I'm confident in Ridley. However he has more things going in his favor now then earlier. The Pyrosphere still doesn't have a known hazard and we have seen a ton of it with no Ridley. Also Little Mac is a Western wanted character. Do you know who else is wanted mostly in the West? Ridley that's who. Also Sakurai has stated many times that size doesn't matter.

Want: 95%
Can't say I'm a big Ridley fan, but I know a lot of people want him in, and I have no problems with him, so I'm cool with him. Also Metroid needs another character not named Samus.

King Boo: 1%
Rhythm Haven Stage: 20.75%

Nominations: Louie (Pikmin) x5

 

[Chandeelure]

 

[Groose]

Here's my view on it; Sakurai is 100% aware of the massive amount of wantage for Ridley in the West. He's probably aware of the controversy surrounding him and his size, be it a meme or not. But the majority of Smash fans do genuinely want him. Just look at the 15,000+ comments on Smashboards Ridley page. The general newcomer discussion page doesn't have that many comments.

Even if Sakurai were to despise Ridley, he still is going to tread lightly and seriously consider the character. If he is too much of a challenge to program, he will give him some form of spotlight like he did in Brawl. but Ridley is probably hands-down the most requested first party character in the world, and would generate massive amounts of hype. Hype best saved for E3. There would be vocal disappointment if he were relegated to a mere Assist Trophy, stage hazard, or boss again. Meanwhile, if he is incorporated right the haters would have less to hate about. "Hey, I was proven wrong and the character was actually made a functional fighter." is a lot less peeved than "Hundreds of thousands of fans have been waiting for this character since Melee and he still isn't in. Screw you, Sakurai."

He is teasing us, just like he did Little Mac and is Palutena. He is fully aware of what he is doing.

The biggest character fan base is not going to shut up until Ridley gets in. I know I won't. Sakurai realized this after Ridley was two bosses in Brawl; that wasn't satisfying enough. He will do everything he can to make him a reality.

Funny. I recall reading this on GameFAQs early this afternoon during my break. Was that your account there that posted it, or did they swipe it from you?

Bulborb: Double Zeroes
Not much time for him, but let me say this: why should he get in when the Goombas, Octorocs, and Waddle Dees have failed?

Ridley Chance: 60%
So, let's go for a walk down memory lane. It was late June, and we had just started playing this game of Rate Their Chances. I was a carefree lad who could spend a day or two away from the boards without people posting tumbleweed gifs (*ahem*), and I just happened to be lying on a beach in Jersey when we were rating Ridley. When I returned, I left a footnote on my next rating saying I would have given him a 90%, but I didn't elaborate. A Ridley rerate did happen in early August, but I held the same belief and elaborated on it: Ridley was borderline shoo-in because his massive popularity and controversy in the West would have to attract Sakurai's attention.

Well, later that month Pyrosphere rolled around, and my beliefs changed. Sakurai could potentially acknowledge Ridley's popularity by making him a Stage Hazard, yes. Even so, I still found it more likely that it was all a tease and that he'd be playable. It was late Octover when we rated Ridley for a third time, and I gave him a 66% to reflect this.

My ratings as a whole drastically changed around early November. I started to detach myself more and look more towards reasoning and a smaller number of newcomers. Under this new line of thinking, Ridley suffered perhaps the most. Although we didn't get to rate him between late October and now, I would have dropped my rating had we done so. I said just last week on the Roster Discussion Thread that he had a 50% chance; I argued that Sakurai could be planning him as a Stage Hazard or as a playable character.

When I started this day, however, I rethought my rating of him. 50% seemed a little low for someone who has consistently made everyone of my predictions rosters. I actually somewhat expect to see Ridley, something I can say only for Miis, Pac-Man, Palutena, and Little Mac. I decided to give him a 55% chance; I would not be carried away by my hopes, but I would acknowledge that I thought he was probable.

Sakurai decided to throw one last wrench into my plans yesterday, stating that Smash isn't always to scale. Such a comment doesn't necessarily say Sakurai thinks Ridley would make a good playable character, but it does put a nail in the too big argument's coffin. Some say this is a tease for Ridley; I can see that, but I don't want to take it as anything more than conjecture for the sake of this rating. With this picture, though, I have increased my rating to 60%--he's behind Palutena, Miis, and Pac-Man, but ahead of everyone else.

Ridley Want: 100%
One thing that has remained consistent these last eight months: Ridley is my second-most wanted newcomer. No one will ever pass him, and he wil never pass K. Rool. That's a cold, hard fact.

E. Gadd x5

DAY OVER

...RETURN OF GROOSE​

 

[Groose]

Bulborb (Pikmin)
2.31% chance
7.94% want
Barely in the Top 100 of chance? Out of the Top 100 of Want? Yup, this is an @MargnetMan23 nomination, all right!

Ridley (Metroid)
73.98% chance (DAY 80: 71.38%; DAY 44: 69.95%; DAY 3: 71.10%)
81.21% want (DAY 80: 84.80%; DAY 44: 84.13%; DAY 3: 78.73%)
Ridley's chance scored have never been stronger, even back before the Pyrosphere stage reveal. He's up two percent from October... perhaps the recent picture has fuelled his success? His want score is a little bit lower than the past two ratings, but that may be chalked up to an incidental drop. Unfortunately for everyone's favorite space dragon, that incidental drop is enough to force him to relinquish the title of Rate Their Chance's Most Wanted Newcomer... King K. Rool, enjoy your new home as Rank 1 Want!

Today we're rating King Boo in chance and want. Does he have a ghost of a chance? Or are his chances pretty much sucked up by other characters? We're also rating a Rhythm Heaven Stage in chance and want today. You guys have made it fairly clear that you're not really expecting a character; could a stage be more appropriate?

Tomorrow we're going to be rating Tetra flying solo and the possibility of having no Bandai Namco character. Please make your predictions here. As an aside: I'll get to the OP this weekend.

 

[Chandeelure]

-King Boo:
Chances:3%
Want:70%

-Rhythm Heaven Stage:
Chances:9%
Want:10%

-Tetra without Toon Zelda prediction: 5%

-No Namco Bandai character prediction:41%

-Nomination: Mii X10

 

[KingofPhantoms]

King Boo Chance - 2%

I can't really see a series as huge as Mario getting two newcomers. Mario already had 4 characters as of Melee, now it has 5. Can't really see any other characters getting in at this point, aside from maybe Doc or Bowser Jr. due to being clone-material, Bowser Jr. to a lesser extent.

King Boo never really stood out that much to me as one of the more likely potential Mario newcomers, and now his chance is even smaller.

Want 95%

The main antagonist of Luigi's Mansion, which was one of the first games I ever played (the first game I ever played involving Mario) my main in Mario Kart Wii, and one of my favorite video game characters overall.

Also, I see a lot of potential in King Boo as a ghost and all, I think he could potentially provide a new playstyle into Smash. It's not like his abilities are that limited in the Mario series either. I'd love to see him in Smash.

Rhythm Heaven Stage Chance - 60%

Not very familiar with this franchise, so I'll just take a guess. Rhythm Heaven seems popular enough based on what I know, plus it's potential stage gimmicks. I can see a Rhythm Heaven stage happening.

Want - 70%

Could be cool.

Solo Tetra Prediction - 42.11%

No Namco character prediction 45.72%

2 DK newcomers x5

 

[Erimir]

King Boo...

Seems tricky to design a move set for an intangible ghost. Oh yeah, and then there's the fact that why would they pick him when they could put in Bowser Jr, Waluigi, Paper Mario, Professor E Gadd or a few other more popular candidates instead?

King Boo chances: 0.5%

King Boo want: 10%
Not really.

Rhythm Heaven stage

I don't know a lot about the series, but I know that Hanenbow got a stage last time. It was a neat idea, but for whatever reason it was really laggy. Rhythm Heaven could probably be incorporated more successfully and seems like a good candidate for "stage but no character" representation.

Rhythm Heaven stage chance: 38%

Rhythm Heaven stage want: 49%
I am indifferent. As long as it works better than Hanenbow. Could either be cool (if it's mostly just a stage where platforms and such move in time to the rhythm) or somewhat annoying (if stage hazards move in time to the rhythm). I'd prefer more Pictochat and less Hanenbow or WarioWare.

Predictions:

Tetra solo: 15%

No Namco character: 33%

Nominations:
Paper Mario x10

ETA extra noms

 

[Smasher 101]

first off wow how on earth did bulborb get over 2%

Understandably, not many people were anywhere close to Bulborb's score. The only one within 1% was @ Rockaphin , so he gets five extra nominations. There was a three-way tie for Ridley; @ Chandeelure , @ colder_than_ice , and @ Erimir all get extra nominations today.

 

[colder_than_ice]

King Boo
Chance: 0% - He needs to get in line behind Bowser Jr., Paper Mario, Waluigi, Dr. Mario, Daisy, and possibly even Birdo.
Want: 0% - Down with the king!

Rhythm Heaven stage
Chance: 23% - I think the series is more likely to get a stage than a playable character. It's a popular series that doesn't have a character that could really work.
Want: 42% - I'm mostly indifferent.

Solo Tetra prediction: 6%

No Namco character prediction: 19%

Nominations: Improved Stage Builder x10

 

[Xenigma]

Time to pick another character to nominate...and I'm kinda running out of options. Maybe time to start choosing who to nominate via dartboard?

King Boo - 0%
WHY DO WE KEEP RATING CHARACTERS THAT ARE CLEARLY TOO BIG
So I was a little surprised when I checked out the Mario Wiki entry on King Boo to find he's had a lot of powers given to him over the years beyond simply being a large Boo, especially with the latest Luigi's Mansion. That said, we already have a Mario newcomer and, even if a second Mario newcomer is possible, there's still a number of characters that would surely beat him out like Bowser Junior, Paper Mario, Waluigi, and Toad (yes, even though he's "deconfirmed"). Decent Assist Trophy material, but as a playable character, it's just too much of a stretch for me to consider him having a nonzero chance.
Want - 0% - While he has more potential than expected, he's simply not what I want from another Mario newcomer.

Rhythm Heaven Stage - 75%
Last Smash we got a small handful of stages from Nintendo properties that were notable enough for recognition in Smash yet didn't get playable characters for whatever reason. Smashville, Pictochat and Hanenbow may have have had corresponding playable characters, but in my mind at least they were some of the most memorable stages from Brawl. This time around there is little reason to believe Sakurai won't take the same strategy with stages, and as far as franchises that are unlikely to get a playable character but would be great for a stage go, Rhythm Heaven has to be very high up in the rankings. Any number of RH environments could be adapted into a fun stage, and if they really wanted to go all-out, they could create a WarioWare-esque stage that cycles through different RH mini-games. It's something that seems so perfect for SSB4 that I'd be genuinely shocked if it didn't happen on at least one version of the game, though as with any stage I can't rate it too highly due to their inherent unpredictability.
Want - 75% - Not a big fan of the franchise, but I have a feeling RH would make for a really fun stage.

Tetra Prediction - 12.5%
This one is difficult simply because of how much traction TZ/T has at this point. Will see some fairly high ratings compared to most newcomer ratings of late, but enough detractors that this prediction could be dramatically overshooting.

No Namco Bandai Character Prediction - 35%
Thanks to Pac-Man's fairly high rating, I'm guessing this will stay fairly low, considering it's for a third party not happening.

Nominations
Midna x5

 

[Hippopotasauce]

King Boo likelihood: 1%
Want: 0%

Rhythm Heaven stage likelihood: 100%
I'VE GOT MONEY ON THIS ONE
Want: 100%

Tetra: 6.85%
No Namco: 29.5%

Unlockable Newcomers x5

 

[Starbound]

King Boo: 2%
Want: 25%

Kinda hard to fight when you lack legs, though I suppose it's still a possibility.

RH Stage: 10%
Want: 65%

Much more likely if we get a RH character. Otherwise I don't think the series is that likely to get a stage as it is very niche.

5x Athena Cykes

 

[Spears In Smash Bros.]

King Boo: 0.67%
Intangible being: too OP for Smash. (just kidding, but you get the point)

Want: 1.3%
BOOOOOOOOOOO! GET OFFA THE STAGE!

Rhythm Heaven stage: 34%
Previously unrepresented franchises, yadda yadda yadda.

Want: 80%
It would be every bit as gimmicky as the Warioware stage, and that's why I'd love it.

Just Tetra prediction: 13.93%
No Bamco character prediction: 54.89%

Nominate:
Isabelle x4
Red Savarin (Solatorobo) x1
Because dog people.

 

[FalKoopa]

King Boo: 1%
Nope. Too far down in the ladder of potential Mario candidates to have a real chance.

Want: 0%
I really really want him as a boss.

Rhythm Heaven Stage: 25%
It can happen I suppose. I don't know much about Rhythm Heaven so dunno.

Want: 50%
Indifferent

Tetra Prediction: 20%
No Namco Character prediction: 10%
People have enough faith in Pac-Man's chances.

No unlockable characters x 5

I'll upload the updated Want chart later today.

 

[Spears In Smash Bros.]

Also Diddy Kong's been revealed.

Incidentally, I just realized that Diddy/Dixie tag-team has a grand total of zero nominations.

 

[McDuckletts]

King Boo
Chance: 0.2%
King Boo has way too many hurdles to jump over, including other more deserving Mario characters, the fact that we may only get 5 Mario newcomers in this game, and the fact that he doesn't have legs...That last one probably doesn't mean much, but it's still something.
Want: 20%
I always liked Boos, so I wouldn't be entirely angry at King Boo's inclusion in Smash. If anything, I'd mostly be mad at the fact that he got in before Paper Mario.

Rhythm Heaven stage
Chance: 20%
I can't see it being too likely. If we have a RH rep in this game, which I think is likely, then yeah, but we don't know that yet.
Want: 50%
indifferent. mite b cool.

Predictions
Tetra: 14.83%
No Namco: 20.11%

Nom: Shadow X5

 

[Rockaphin]

King Boo:
Chance: 5%
Want: 25%
He could have a unique moveset and I always liked him, but I feel he'd be an awkward character. Best for an Assist Trophy IMO...

Rhythm Heaven Stage:
Chance: 60%
Want: 5%
Personally not too sure, I've never played the game so I don't care if there's a stage or not.

Predictions:
Tetra: 35%
No Namco: 32%

Nominations:
Gangplank Galleon X10

 

[Deleted member]

King Boo:

10% Chance: Luigi's Mansion 2 solidified him as the 'Bowser' of that series and gave him a whole lot of moveset potential at the same time. He gives Luigi a rival, and considering how big the Mario series is, I think it merits a second real villain outside of Bowser. So he fits the bill as far as unique goes for a set and in terms of archetypes, we don't have anything like a ghost and it's not as hard as it seems to make a set based around that. Where problems come in for the character is he's simply not that recognized in fan circles and he has practically no personality outside of an insidious greedy one, Wario already covering that. While a set could be great, it would much more easily be reduced to an assist trophy or stage hazard too, when you look at what he can do. What most kills his chances though, is simply how many Mario reps there are and ones he has to contend with to get any shot at all. He's probably not getting in over Bowser Jr. as a villain or Waluigi as Luigi's rival, considering their popularity.

50% Want: I made a set for the character so I'm pretty biased. He's not among my most wanted newcomers, but it'd be an incredible sight to see him implemented. Mostly for reasons already addressed though, I can't put him too high as he directly competes with another newcomer I want far more, Waluigi, although the fact he blocks Jr. and Paper Mario as well scores him a few points. He may not have a strong personality but he has a great presence that would make him an awesome competitor in Smash, turning out as a sadistic character who seems to love torturing his foes going by his constant grimace during fights. He'd also be another trouble king, and another villain always helps, although for both of these K. Rool is obviously preferable too.

Rhythm Heaven Stage:

5% Chance, 55% Want: Hard to gauge to be honest. The game was popular but not a huge success, though there's no way to outright tell unless I go look up NPDs, I'm just thinking it was mostly popular on the internet. It definitely looks like a really fun game and I remember plenty of great levels that could be inspired WarioWare-like stages. That'd be fun, but again, I just don't see this game being that well-known enough for Sakurai to give it a stage, although I'm for it.

Tetra Prediction: 10%
She has quite a number of fans so I expect some big numbers.
No Namco Newcomer: 20%
Hm, well. I think Pac-Man will push this down substantially all on his own, although he's the only remotely possible one.

Goku x5