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Rate Their Chances: GAME OVER! Join the RTC Social Group Today!

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Mega Bidoof

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The Good Doctor
Playable
99.99% Chance
100% Want
Well, I believe the leak, (but I feel it is incomplete atm), and as such, I believe in the Good Doctor. For want? Doc was one of my mains in Melee, so seeing some pill popping action would make me smile.
The Good Doctor
Costume
.01% Chance
100% Want
Same as above really...

Lana
0% Chance
Hyrule Warriors too new for OC...
50% Want
Seems really cute IMO, but seems kinda Mary Sue, idk....
Nominating Duck Hunt Dog x5
There is too much bias here.

You are saying that Lana has the same chance of being playable than Dr. Mario does of being an alt.

Check your post before you Shrek your post, K?
 
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Oracle_Summon

Smash Hero
Joined
Jul 31, 2013
Messages
5,059
There is too much bias here.
You are saying that Lana has a better chance of being playable than Dr. Mario does of being an alt.

Check your post before you Shrek your post, K?
Dr. Mario Alternate Costume
Chance: 65%

Want: 75%
- Now this is something I can get behind. His model looks awesome and would make total sense as an alternate costume to Mario.

Lana
Chance: 2%

Want: 20%
- I like her design, but that is practically it.

65%>2%
75%>20%

I really think you are misreading the numbers, unless you meant Dr. Mario being playable instead of an alt.
 
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Mega Bidoof

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3DS FC
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Dr. Mario Alternate Costume
Chance: 65%

Want: 75%
- Now this is something I can get behind. His model looks awesome and would make total sense as an alternate costume to Mario.

Lana
Chance: 2%

Want: 20%
- I like her design, but that is practically it.

65%>2%
75%>20%

I really think you are misreading the numbers, unless you meant Dr. Mario being playable instead of an alt.
Sorry, I quoted the wrong person.
I meant to quote someone else. I fixed my post.
 
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Erimir

Smash Lord
Joined
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Messages
1,732
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DC
3DS FC
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I would not read anything into the inclusion of Hip Tanaka (the composer for Dr. Mario) in today's music update regarding Dr. Mario's chances.

First of all, Dr. Mario music is almost assured of appearing regardless of whether Dr. Mario is playable. But just as importantly, look at the illustrious list of old school Nintendo games Tanaka has composed for. He's contributed to Metroid, Mario, DK, Kid Icarus, Earthbound, Stack Up+Gyromite and Tetris. He even was the composer for Duck Hunt and contributed to Famicom Wars, while we're reading into things.

But while we're on the subject of him, I'ma link to this awesome Super Mario Land medley he composed as a tribute to long-time Nintendo president Hiroshi Yamauchi when he passed away:

Ignore the fact that it has a Metroid picture instead...
Also that song hits you right in the feels at about 0:40... Or maybe you have to have played Super Mario Land as a kid...


Anywho!

Lana

Let's get this out of the way first.

Lana chances: 0%
She's of no import to Zelda and she wasn't even designed by the Zelda team. She's definitely behind Impa, Tetra, Toon Zelda, Vaati, Pig Ganon and Toon Ganondorf in the line for Zelda reps.

Lana want: 0%
I do not like her design. I can't explain it, but she does not feel particularly "Zelda" to me. She looks too kawaii/generic anime or something. The same thing applies, to a lesser extent, to the three original villains. They did a good job with adapting the Zelda characters themselves though... I also hope we haven't heard the English voice acting for HW, because I dislike the super-high pitched thing they do with Japanese female voices. I know it's their culture*, but to my American ears it's just grating.

*Just in case anyone is wondering, Japanese women do not have inherently higher voices than other ethnicities, it is due to their strict gender roles. Japanese females will often drop the squeaky voice when talking amongst themselves or outside formal "polite" situations.

Dr. Mario

I think the leak is fairly convincing, but one thing that has me thinking maybe less so is the inclusion of the MGS composer on the music list. The leak says Snake is cut. But that composer has no connection to Nintendo other than Brawl. And her one contribution to Brawl was a Metal Gear song. She could be arranging music from another series, of course, but she is the strongest hint we've had towards Snake so far.

Even so, the leak is fairly convincing.

Dr. Mario chances:
Playable: 60%
Alt: 30%

Dr. Mario want:
Playable: 55%
I liked playing as him better than as Mario... though really the improvements he has over Mario could easily just be incorporated into Mario's move set.
Alt: 100%
This is a perfect position for him.

Predictions:
Cia: 0.01%
Groose representation: 98% (I assume a trophy counts... would Groose's theme being in something count too?)
Four or more 3rd parties: 33.4%
I base this almost entirely on Snake.

Nominations:
Duck Hunt Dog x5
 
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Pacack

Super Pac-Fan
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Dr. Mario:

Chance: 15%
The "leak" is kind of obviously false if you look at a couple of the details, although I will admit that it's extremely well done. However, I could still see the Doctor happening, as he's one of the most likely candidates for a clone (along with Dark Pit, Impa, and a few others).

It also helps that he's a cut veteran that, if we're getting technical, was never meant to be cut in the first place.

Want: 30%
I would be indifferent, but I'd be much happier with other clones. Dr. Mario's kinda bland, imo.


Dr. Mario Alternate Costume:

Now this is a different story.

Chance: 66.66%
Highly likely, but far from confirmed. I'd say that an 18.33% chance of him not getting in as playable in either form is highly accurate.

Want: 100%
Indisputably the most deserving alternate costume.


Lana:

Chance: .05%
Not happening. Even if we were to get a Zelda newcomer, there are so many characters to choose from before her.

Want: 3%
I'd rather Impa, Ganon, and Tingle...heck, I'd rather characters that I don't even care about like Ghirahim or Vaati before her too. She's just too anime for me.


Predictions:
Groose Representation: 89.01%
Four or More Third Parties: 34.56%
Cia: .98%

Nominations: Impa x5
 
D

Deleted member

Guest
Nominations x5 Sceptile/Mewtwo/Jiggs chance day.

One last time, we must rate these pokemon.
I hope you don't mind, but I distributed the nominations between 2 for Sceptile, 2 for Mewtwo, and 1 for Jigglypuff. I think that rating all three of them at once will probably take too long considering when we will rate two more things alongside them.

Dr. Mario (as a character)
Chance:
1%
Want: 0%

I stated my thoughts on the leak yesterday, so my score for Dr. Mario has not changed and I don't want to see him be playable.

Dr. Mario (as an Alt Costume)
Chance:
25%

First, I considered this to be at least 50/50. Dr. Mario is easily one of the most requested alternate costumes out there and he had some data in Brawl. However, I have to take into account about Lucina's situation. She was at first an alternate costume for Marth, but then she became her own separate character when Sakurai realized that she had enough unique attributes to make her a separate character.
Sakurai thought it was weird for Dr. Mario to throw Fireballs instead of Megavitamins, which are a unique characteristic of Dr. Mario. As such, that one thing might be enough for Sakurai to suggest that he should be playable instead.
I see it as probable, but not highly likely.
Want: 100%
Dr. Mario is my most wanted alternate costume for this game and I was disappointed when he didn't return as one for Mario. I had a load of nostalgia for the doc; he helped me get the Master Hand, Crazy Hand, and Mew trophies in Melee as a child. In fact, whenever I play as Mario in Project M, I almost always play as him with the Dr. Mario alt. costume and I think that the same case will happen here, provided that if does happen.
Anyways, I rambled on more about him here in case you were curious as to what my thoughts are about him.

Lana
Chance & Want:
Double Zeroes

Hyrule Warriors is too new. Nuff said.
As for want, I don't really like her. From the surface, I hate her ditzy attitude and her design is just horrid to me; it doesn't mesh well with the worlds of Zelda at all. As such, she sticks like a sore thumb to me. Also, this new character getting in over Groose was an absolute disappointment.

Groose Representation Prediction: 94.74%
ALL ABOARD THE GROOSE TRAIN! HURRY! IT'S GETTING LOOSE!
Four or More Third Parties Prediction: 29.73%
Snake. Snake. Snaaaaaaake...
Cia Prediction: .05%
Too new, too new, too new...

We can do this!
Nominations: Use Your Own Villager/Robin 5x

DAY OVER!
I NEED A PLUMBER TO FIX ALL OF THESE LEAKS...
BUT HE'S PRETENDING TO BE A DOCTOR NOW...
 
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Kenith

Overkill Sarcasm
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Dr. Mario:

Chance: 20%. Of the potential clones to pad the roster, Dr. Mario is, I would say, the most likely. He has been in Smash before, is somewhat popular, easy to make, and actually represents an entire series of games.

Want: 75%. I would prefer Paper Mario over him as our second Mario, but I love the good doctor in Melee, and would like to see him again.
As an Alternate Costume:
I would say 50%.

Lana:

Chance: 5%. She's from a completely new game that is being released around the same time as Smash. She is a completely new character that really isn't a first-party creation-So, I can't see her happening. Especially over *sniff* Ghirahim.

Want: 100%. That being said, all of my want. She is super cute and her moveset potential is astronomical.

---- Nominations ----

Jill Valentine x5
 
D

Deleted member

Guest
Dr. Mario (as a Character)
Chance: 38.97% (Was 6.96%)
Want: 25.09% (Was 13.69%)

These scores suggest that Mario's career really lies with plumbing, not doctoring. What I mean is thanks to the leaks, Dr. Mario's scores have risen above by quite a significant amount! Unfortunately, he is still pretty unpopular.

Dr. Mario (as an Alt. Costume)
Chance: 42.41%
Want: 75.13%

Even with all of these leaks, you all thought that Dr. Mario was more likely to be an alternate costume for Mario rather than a separate character. The doc may have not had the medicine to sway you as a separate character, but he definitely had the cure with his alternate costume! Oh, and it's one of our most wanted concepts, by the way.

Lana
Chance: 1.82%
Want: 21.21%

Lana is a warrior, a Hylian Warrior in fact. Still, you don't want her to compete against the match-up of the all-stars. The fact that she was too new and even too undeserving was what crippled her scores.

Today everyone... THE GROOSE IS LOOSE! While he isn't running this day, he is here in spirit! We are rating the chance of Groose getting any sort of representation in Smash; this includes him being a playable character, Assist Trophy, a mere trophy, or having his glorious theme in the game.
What's also loose are third parties. We currently have Sonic the Hedgehog, Mega Man, and Pac-Man. But, who's to say that is all we are going to get? Are we going to get four or more?
Lastly, due to the White Witch's poor performance, her rival is here and is determined to get higher scores than Lana. That's right, Cia, one of the antagonists from Hyrule Warriors, is getting rated.
Please rate Groose Representation, Four or More Third Parties, and Cia in chance and want today!

Tomorrow is a day full of concepts! We will be discussing Balance Patches, Dragon Quest Representation, and the possibility of us getting a Sonic stage on the 3DS that isn't Green Hill Zone!
Please predict how Balance Patches, Dragon Quest Representation, and 3DS Sonic Stage (not Green Hill) will fair in tomorrow's game!

Wow... I can't believe we are near the end...
I might sound redundant, but I must say if you have a character, stage, song, or concept that you want to rate, please push it to the top now. We don't have much time left. Next week is the last week of the game!
Here's some music for the moment:

@FalKoopa
@ Gunla Gunla
Can one of you please change the title of the thread?
Dr. Mario:

Chance: 20%. Of the potential clones to pad the roster, Dr. Mario is, I would say, the most likely. He has been in Smash before, is somewhat popular, easy to make, and actually represents an entire series of games.

Want: 75%. I would prefer Paper Mario over him as our second Mario, but I love the good doctor in Melee, and would like to see him again.
As an Alternate Costume:
I would say 50%.

Lana:

Chance: 5%. She's from a completely new game that is being released around the same time as Smash. She is a completely new character that really isn't a first-party creation-So, I can't see her happening. Especially over *sniff* Ghirahim.

Want: 100%. That being said, all of my want. She is super cute and her moveset potential is astronomical.

---- Nominations ----

Jill Valentine x5
Oops! It seems as you posted this just as I posted this! I am sorry, but I will count your nominations for Jill Valentine! Sorry!
Nominations:
X101 Balance Patches
x101 Dragon Quest Representation
X100 Sonic 3DS Stage (Not Green Hill Zone)
X92 City Trial Stages
x91 SSB4 Outsells Brawl
x90 Unlockable Taunts
x90 Marshal and Chorus Men Day
x80 “Destiny” (Awakening)
x75 Use Your Own Villager or Robin
x74 Parabo and Satebo
x74 Duck Hunt Dog Rerate
x66 Jill Valentine
x65 Four or More Newcomers
x62 M. Bison
x60 Unlockable Costumes
x56 Impa Rerate
x55 "Moonstruck Blossom"
x55 Ditto Pokeball
x55 Galacta Knight and Dark Meta Knight Costumes
x53 Fiora
x49 Micaiah AT
x45 Mii Wizard
x45 Wreck-It Ralph! (Wreck-It Ralph!)
x44 Star Man (Prowrestling)
x43 NonplayableCharacter to Playable Via DLC
x41 Franchise Other Than Fire Emblem With Four Characters
x41 Endless Ocean Stage
x40 Petey Piranha(Super Mario Bros)
x37 Porky Rerate
x32 Kiddy Kong Donkey Kong)
x32 Hyrule Warriors Ganondorf
x30 Playable Bosses Rerate
x30 Wii Fit Meter
x28 Nightmare Rerate
x27 Chef Kawasaki Rerate
x27 Captain Falcon’s Theme
x27 Protoman (Mega Man)
x27 Six Mario Characters
x27 Kirby Triple Deluxe Stage
x26 Smash Direct
x25 Tetra and Toon Zelda Day
x25 “Punch Bowl"
x25 Hannebow Stage
x25 Sceptile Rerate
x25 Nintendo Land Plaza
x23 Ken Masters
x23 Marina (Michief Makers)
x20 Cain and Abel
x20 Ganon Rerate
x20 Gaius (Fire Emblem)
x20 Daroach (Kirby)
x20 Bowser Jr. Rerate
x17 Lief
x17 CPU Uses Alternate Costumes
X15 Dedede Arena
x15 Heracross (Pokemon)
x15 Kid Icarus Dog (Kid Icarus)
x15 All Brawl Veterans / No Brawl Cuts
x15 3D World Representation
x15 Team-Up Attacks in Team Battle
x15 Venusaur (Pokemon)
x15 Chaos 0 (Sonic)
X15 Leif (Fire Emblem)
x15 Inkling Assist Trophy
x15 Villain Newcomer (Mewtwo Counts)
x15 Bidoof
x15 Adeleine
x15 Dark Pit
x15 Crocodile Cacophony
x15 Mach Rider Rerate
x14 Zoroark
x14 Mario Party Content
x13 Standalone Pokemon Trainer Rerate
x11 Captain Syrup Rerate
x10 Gyrardos (Pokemon)
x10 Batallion Was Rifle Grunts (Battalion Wars)
x10 Mallow (Super Mario)
x10 Godot (Ace Attorney)
x10 Billy Hatcher (The Giant Egg)
x10 Different Starting Roster Between Versions
x10 King Boo Rerate
x10 Vaati
x10 NFC DLC
x10 Robot Ness Alt Costume
x10 Daisy Rerate
x10 Purchasale DLC Music
x10 Valkyrie Trophy
x10 Dark Pit Stage Boss
x9 N Rerate
x9 Fossil Fighters (Fossil Fighters)
x8 Charlie (Mario Golf)
x7 Ridley
x7 Zant
x6 Japanese Voice Options
x6 Six Pokemon Characte
x6 Kid Icarus Girl (Kid Icarus)
x5 Mario Party Stage
x5 Cooking Mama
x5 Resetti AT
x5 Secret Newcomers
x5 Quote Rerate
x5 Professor Layton Representation
x5 Pokemon Center Delivery Pikachu
x5 Metal Overlord Boss
x5 Beedrill Pokeball Returns
x5 DLC Character
x5 Added Assist Trophy Feature
x5 Lip Rerate
x5 Captain Viridian (VVVVVVV)
x5 Rattle and Roll
x5 Sealed Grounds Stage
x5 Yumetao (Famicom)
x5 Rambi AT
x5 Masterpieces Returns
x5 Medli NPC
x5 Airship Stage
x5 Doctor Mario
x5 General DLC
x5 Konami Character
x5 “Bellumbeck"
x5 “Kanto Legendary Battle”
x5 “The Won-Stopable Wonderful 100”
x5 Dark Matter Rerate
x5 Tropical Resort
x5 Kururin
x5 Lysandre (Pokemon)
x5 Masked Man Rerate
x5 Q Bert (Q*Bert)
X5 Toadsworth (Super Mario)
x5 Viewtiful Joe (Viewtiful Joe)
x5 Kumatora (Mother/Earthbound)
X5 Tony (Earthbound)
x5 Wuhu Island 3DS Stage
x5 Hades Rerate
x5 Pursuit~Cornered
x5 Smash 3DS Sells 1Mil in One Month
x5 Hooktail Stage Hazard
x5 Unknown Renders Leak
x5 King Hippo (Punch-Out!)
x5 Little Mac Codec
x5 Pokemon Series Newcomer
x5 WayForward Rep
x5 Geno
x5 Dr. Mario
x5 Isaac
x5 Ogres and Dronkeys Tag Team [NOMINATIONS DISABLED]
x5 Tharja Rerate
x4 Coco Bandicoot
x4 Jigglypuff Rerate
x3 “Adventure’s End”
x3 More Pokeall Pokemon
x3 E. Gadd AT
x2 Isa Rerate
x2 Gray Fox AT
x2 Spinner Item
x2 NiGHTS Trophy
x2 Kat & Aa (Wario)
x2 Birdo AT
x2 Pyrosphere 3DS
x2 Yoshi’s Story [Melee]\ Stage
x2 Pilotwings Character
x2 Kirby Air Ride Stage
x2 Mewtwo
x2 Neku Trophy
x1 Bomberman Rerate
x1 Yuga (Zelda)
x1 Crono Trophy
x1 Ravio (Zelda)
x1 Blaze the Cat
x1 Hilda (Zelda
x1 Ilyana (Fire Emblem)
x1 Idolm@ster Song on Pac-Man Stage
x1 Six Zelda Characters
x1 Giygas (Mother)
x1 Fatal Frame Representation
x1 Newcomers Without a Stage
x1 Customizable Event Matchs
x1 Blaziken Rerate
x1 Non-Final Smash Mega Lucario
x1 Pink Gold Peach (Mario Kart)
 
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Leafeon523

Smash Ace
Joined
Mar 20, 2014
Messages
964
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All your base
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Leafeon523
3DS FC
2466-1607-7000
Snake Four+ third parties:
Chance: 35%
I mostly feel like this revolves around Snake. He's One of the few characters that I find relatively unaffected by the leak.

Want: 80%
The more third parties, the better!

Groose representation:
Chance: 99.9%
The Wii u version has a Skyloft Stage, lots of Zelda items, and a Ghirahim assist. I would find it absurd if a Groose trophy (or possibly an assist) was not included.

Want: 100%

DAT POMPADOUR! How could you not want this guy in?
Also, there is his amazing theme song.

Nominating Ditto Pokeball x5

Oh yeah, Cia. Double zeroes.
 
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D

Deleted member

Guest
Snake (AKA Only 3rd Party with a chance):
Chance: 10%
Want: 20%
He doesn't fit, and he probably isn't gonna make it seeing as he is 3rd party and we're nearing release.

Groose representation:
Chance: 94%
Want: 100%
I didn't know what we were predicting him for exactly, but it seems to be everything. He'll probably make it.

Cia: Double 0s

Nominations: x5 Galacta Knight and Dark Meta Knight costumes (Anybody who isn't nominating care to assist me with this?)

Predictions:
3DS Sonic stage: 11%
Dragon Quest representation: 1.46%
Balance Patches: 92.3%
 
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Tikivoy

Smashing idol~
Joined
Jun 18, 2014
Messages
890
Location
Locked in Wii Fit Gym since 2014.
Switch FC
SW-4447-4606-8984
Four Third Parties/Snake: 72% I'm still confident Snake can make it in.
Want: 100% Because Snake.

Groose Representation: 99% There's next to no way they won't give him a trophy.
Want: 100%. I've always wanted to see Groose be an AT and launch bombs from the Groosenator...is it still to much to hope for with Ghirahim as an AT?

Cia: 5% Only if another Roy happens.
Want: 100%... though it may be for the wrong reasons >_>
 

Pureownege75

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Jun 20, 2014
Messages
229
Location
Gangplank Galleon
Cia
Literally identical to Lana in every way, so I'm just gunna quote my post from yesterday
Chance: 0%
People SERIOUSLY overstate the importance of Hyrule Warriors. It's a Spinoff Game not a main series Zelda. I HIGHLY doubt it will get recognized by Nintendo down the line in the Zelda canon. Because of that, is it really much better off than the CD-i games (aside from quality)? Spin-offs are notorious for their lack of representation in Smash outside of trophies. Why did it take four games for something Paper Mario related? Why has their never been any Pokemon Spin-off representation? Spin-offs, (especially when made by 3rd parties) hold zero importance to the main franchise, and Hyrule Warriors is no different. Not only that, but the game is WAY too recent, nor is she as memorable other one-time characters like Ghirahim. She's not happening.

Want: 0%
I don't want such needless character additions, and the game doesn't look THAT interesting to me.
Groose Representation
Chance: 100%
He'll be here... somewhere. Although him being playable is very unlikely, I could see him be an Assist Trophy, or show up in the Skyward Sword Stage. And if none of THAT happens, I still think he'll at the very least be a trophy in the game. He was very popular in Skyward Sword, so excluding him from the game entirely just seems odd

Want: 100%
Haven't played Skyward Sword, but I have a general idea of Groose. He seems like a pretty neat character, and I'd like to have him in this game in some capacity, whatever that may be, if only for his fans, of which I know there are alot

Four or More 3rd Party Characters
Chance: 5.5%
The 5% is for Snake's unlikely return. The other .5% is for some other 3rd Party character to make it in. Snake is already hanging by a thread, despite probably being the most likely 3rd party character. The Japanese preorder image with only 3 3rd Party Characters on it really hurts 3rd parties in general, as I'm pretty sure all 3rd parties in the game would be featured in promotion by now. Snake could be a secret character, but seeing as Sonic is the only veteran to even get his own trailer, keeping Snake secret is incredibly unlikely, and he's probably just cut. I won't rule him out for DLC though

Want: 50%
The only 3rd Party I want is Snake, but even him I really wouldn't be torn up over if he didn't make a return. Outside of him there aren't any other 3rd Party characters that I want/I think deserve to be in the game, I already got Pac-Man (my second most wanted in the entire game), so I'm pretty content in this field

Nominations
SSB4 Outsells Brawl x5
 
D

Deleted member

Guest
Groose Representation

Chance: 99.99%

As a trophy, Groose is a shoe-in. As anything else, you never know, but I doubt he'll be playable.

Want: 100%

Why not?


Four or More Third Parties

Chance: 0.1%

At this point, I highly doubt it.

Want: 90%

I would like to see Snake return, and it would also be interesting to see Simon Belmont or Bayonetta debut in Smash Bros., but I wouldn't lose sleep over their exclusion. Sonic, Mega Man, and Pac-Man are all I need.


Cia

Double Zeroes
 

BluePikmin11

Akko is my dear daughter!
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4 or More 3rd Parties Chance: 1% I think this Japanese box-art right here pretty much seals the deal that Pac-Man, Sonic, and Megaman that shows Snake and any other potential third party newcomer is done for:

It roughly translates to "Guest Characters join the fight," although it could be argued that it's not the going to be final version of the boxart, the real packaged version will most likely be extremely similar to the download card. I honestly think no more has to be said.

Groose Representation Chance: 99% I'm pretty confident this will happen, he is a pretty popular character in the Zelda franchise, the best I could see for him is Groose getting a trophy, since Ghirahim is already a Zelda SS AT.

Nominations:
x5 Duck Hunt Dog
 
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KingofPhantoms

The Spook Factor
Joined
Feb 12, 2013
Messages
33,498
Location
Southern California
3DS FC
1006-1145-8453
Four Third Parties - 65%

Snake is the only other Third-party character with a chance, and I stand by my thoughts on him as still having a good chance, whether the leak is legitimate or not (and as I said yesterday, I'm still far from convinced that it is).

Want - 100%

Snake would be back. I'm all for it!

Groose representation - 100%

Groose is an important character in Skyward Sword, and certainly one of the most memorable. There's really no reason why he wouldn't make some sort of appearance here, at the very least as a trophy.

Want - 100%

He's Groose. Nothing more needs to be said.

Cia - Doubles Zeros


Balance Patches - 86.98%

Dragon Quest Representation - 2.02%

3DS Sonic Stage - 7.16%

Wreck-It Ralph x5
 

Rie Sonomura

fly octo fly
Joined
Jul 14, 2014
Messages
19,720
NNID
RieSonomura
Switch FC
SW-4976-7649-4666
Four Third Parties
Chance - 60%. I think Pac, Mega and Sonic may be the optimum, but it's up to Sakurai really.
Want - 90%. Snake returning? Neku as a possible newcomer? Yes please!

Cia: abstain

Groose representation: 80% chance and want

Predictions:
Balance Patches: 85% 99%
DQ rep: 5%
3DS sonic stage: 6%

Nominations:
using my 1 leftover point here
"Captain Falcon's theme" x 4
Fiora x 2
 
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Weeman

Smash Crusader
Joined
May 5, 2014
Messages
5,279
Location
México
*Groose representation
-Chance: 99% A trophy at the very least i think is a given, as anything else but playable character i'd give him a 50%.
-Want: 100% Groose is one of my favorite characters, and with Ghirahim deconfirmation, this would make me very happy.

THE GROOSE NEEDS TO BE LOOSE :urg:


*Four or more third parties
-Chance: 35% Pretty much because of Snake, who i think isn't done for yet.
-Want: 100% Well of course, Snake was awesome in Brawl

*Cia
-Chance: 0%
Lana is Cia, so if no Lana no Cia

-Want: 0% Not really seeing what she could bring to the table.

Nomination: Impa rerate x5
:troll:DAY NOT OVER, I'M NOT GROOSE:troll:
 
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JaidynReiman

Smash Hero
Joined
May 31, 2014
Messages
8,840
NNID
JaidynReiman
Cia: Rounded off, its basically 0%, the chances are so abysmally low there's simply no way she'll be playable.

Four Third Parties
Chance: 33%, I think there's a small chance.
Want: 0%, I think we have more than enough third-parties.

Groose Representation
If this refers to also including trophies...

Chance: 100%, he'll DEFINITELY get a trophy.
Want: 50%, I don't care for Groose at all.


Nominations:
Impa Rerate x5

A lot of people seem to have this idea to rerate Impa now. :D
 

Hippopotasauce

Smash Lord
Joined
Jul 3, 2013
Messages
1,659
NNID
Hippopotasauce
Groose Representation Likelihood: 85%
Want: 50%

4+ third parties Likelihood: 6%
Want: 45%

Cia Likelihood: .05%
Want: 10%

4+ more newcomers x5
 

Erimir

Smash Lord
Joined
Nov 24, 2001
Messages
1,732
Location
DC
3DS FC
3823-8583-9137
Cia

Double zeroes.

Groose representation

He could be an Assist Trophy, a regular trophy, a sticker (if those return in some form) or get his song in the game (most likely as part of a medley, since I don't think it can stand up on its own for Smash purposes). So many ways to Groose, and so few reasons not to.

Not to mention... each version of Smash 4 has more trophies than Brawl. Undoubtedly there's a ton of overlap... but the chances they'd leave out Groose seem quite low to me.

Groose representation chances: 92%
Groose representation want: 90%
I don't care as much personally, but he's amusing enough and I know certain people would be pleased to see him. And he deserves a shout out of some kind.

Four or more third-parties

I think Snake is probably the only one who has a chance at this point. And an MGS composer is working on the game whose only contribution to a Nintendo game was the MGS Love Theme heard in Brawl. She could just be doing original work or arranging unrelated music, of course, but that's gotta help.

What hurts is that Konami is not mentioned on that Japanese download card art. Now, it could be kept off for secrecy purposes - not every company is on there either (Ubisoft is not mentioned despite Rayman being a trophy, for example). It's certainly suspicious that Konami is not on it, however.

4+ 3rd parties chance: 20%
Snake still has a chance, and I don't completely buy the leak. The box scan hurts but the composer helps. If it's not Snake, it's nobody though, IMO.
4+ 3rd parties want: 15%
While I certainly would love to see Simon Belmont and possibly some other 3rd parties, I don't care about Snake and he's almost certainly the one we'd get if we get a fourth.

Predictions:
Balance Patches - 60%
Dragon Quest Representation - 5%
3DS Sonic Stage (not Green Hill) - 34%
Seems like there might be fewer stages on the 3DS, but who knows. We've still got a lot to see.

Nominations
Duck Hunt x5
 

Jason the Yoshi

Watching Me, Wanting Me
Joined
Feb 26, 2014
Messages
18,791
Location
Waiting for Jesus
Lana
Chance: 0%
Want: 100%
Well, I don't know much about Lana, but you can't make it in when it's almost done
NO SIR
Maybe fifth Smash perhaps

Dr Mario playable AND AS A COLOR SWAP?
Chance: FLAT OUT 0%
Pick one, dude, we ain't getting both
 

ChazzzyF

Smash Cadet
Joined
Mar 6, 2013
Messages
40
Dr Mario playable AND AS A COLOR SWAP?
Chance: FLAT OUT 0%
Pick one, dude, we ain't getting both
I think the idea is that we rate Dr Mario once for being a playable character and then rate him again as a alternate costume. It's essentially like three rates today.

Also, I sure hope the fact that I couldn't nominate yesterday means that it'll take a lot longer for my thing to reach the top. But 3 a day should help me out, I guess.

Anyway…

Dr Mario (alternate costume):

I would like to preface everything I say on Dr Mario with the fact that I have always been incredibly skeptical of leaks, especially this one. I do believe that the leaked image is fake and will make my rates accordingly.

Chance: 80%

I think that Dr Mario is a logical alternate costume for Mario and it would be a missed opportunity if he did not have it.

Want: 75%

I want this more than a full character.

Dr Mario (character):

Chance: 20%

I say this only because of Lucina. If it could happen to Lucina, it could happen to Dr Mario, but I don't know. It all depends on how that develops.

Want: 25%

I want this less than a alternate costume.

Lana (Hyrule Warriors):

I cannot stress this enough when it comes to things about Hyrule Warriors. It is too recent. It will not happen. That said…

Chance: 0%

Want: 0%

Want is low because I've never played the game, and neither has America, since it's not out yet.

5 for Sonic 3DS Stage (Not Green Hill Zone).
But if it's going Sunday and piling more votes onto it doesn't change that, then add them to Bowser Jr. Rerate.
 

JaidynReiman

Smash Hero
Joined
May 31, 2014
Messages
8,840
NNID
JaidynReiman
I think the idea is that we rate Dr Mario once for being a playable character and then rate him again as a alternate costume. It's essentially like three rates today.

Also, I sure hope the fact that I couldn't nominate yesterday means that it'll take a lot longer for my thing to reach the top. But 3 a day should help me out, I guess.

Anyway…

Dr Mario (alternate costume):

I would like to preface everything I say on Dr Mario with the fact that I have always been incredibly skeptical of leaks, especially this one. I do believe that the leaked image is fake and will make my rates accordingly.

Chance: 80%

I think that Dr Mario is a logical alternate costume for Mario and it would be a missed opportunity if he did not have it.

Want: 75%

I want this more than a full character.

Dr Mario (character):

Chance: 20%

I say this only because of Lucina. If it could happen to Lucina, it could happen to Dr Mario, but I don't know. It all depends on how that develops.

Want: 25%

I want this less than a alternate costume.

Lana (Hyrule Warriors):

I cannot stress this enough when it comes to things about Hyrule Warriors. It is too recent. It will not happen. That said…

Chance: 0%

Want: 0%

Want is low because I've never played the game, and neither has America, since it's not out yet.

5 for Sonic 3DS Stage (Not Green Hill Zone).
But if it's going Sunday and piling more votes onto it doesn't change that, then add them to Bowser Jr. Rerate.
They were already rated. We're currently on Groose Representation (being represented in any way), 4 or more 3rd Parties, and Cia.
 

andimidna

Smash Master
Joined
Dec 22, 2013
Messages
3,330
Location
Gusty garden galaxy
Groose Representation:
Chance: 95%
Want: 95%
Trophy, music... 'nuff said.
As for want, well, he's not my favorite character but him not even getting a small little piece of the game would be a bad choice, he's a big enough deal among Nintendo's cast. Also, his design is unique, his theme is well-recieved, and he's very popular. So my want is really just the chance.

Another 3rd Party:
Snake will probably be DLC. We aren't rating DLC unless specifically stated otherwise.
Chance: 7%
4% from Snake not as DLC, 1.5% from Bayonetta, 1% from Bomberman, 0.5% Simon Belmont and anybody else I can't think of.
Want: 100%
Bayonetta and Snake specifically I like

CIA:
Chance: 0.8%
Lana is more likely as a HW-only character, only because of design and... reaction from Zelda fans.
Look, I'm not going to step around the obvious here, it's cuz bewbs.
And, well, we're almost definitely not getting a HW character at all.
*sad face*
Want: 1000%
I own her thread, U MAD?!
She's ****in awesome. h8 on, h8rs

Pre:
Balance Patches: 30%
This is Nintendo, not Project M ;P
Dairy Queen Dragon Quest representation: 5%
3ds Sonic Stage: 19%
Leak, Green Hill Zone, Mega Man didn't, Pac-Man got one because that's his signature stage, the extra one is on the Wii U, which only exists because Namco is working on the game.

x5 Dark Pit
 

Parallel_Falchion

Smash Lord
Joined
Jul 14, 2014
Messages
1,336
4 or more third parties
Chance - 20%
Well, this is basically re-rating Snake, to be honest. I find it pretty unlikely, all things considered, but I'm not putting a surprise reveal away just yet.

Want - 55%
Snake returning would be cool, but no one else.

Groose appearing
Chance - 50%
His best shot is to be a trophy imo. He could appear on the Skyward Sword stage, but I just don't see that happening. And since Zelda already has 4 assist trophies, I'm doubting any more.

Want - 50%
Don't really care.

Cia double 0's.

Nominate Impa x5.
 

Leafeon523

Smash Ace
Joined
Mar 20, 2014
Messages
964
Location
All your base
NNID
Leafeon523
3DS FC
2466-1607-7000
Please rate Groose Representation, Four or More Third Parties, and Cia in chance and want today!
So we are rating 4+ third parties? Well Snake is probably the most likely third party at this point, so I better consider his chances, then move on to other third parites, but Snake is the main factor...

Snake:
Chance: 33%
One of the few characters that I find relatively unaffected by the leak.

Want: 80%
I definitely think he should return. It's just that I hate it when my friends play as him...
Done!

Let's see what other people have said.

*realization that I rated Snake instead of 4+ third parties*

I'll fix my rating.
 

a Link to the Forums

Smash Journeyman
Joined
May 28, 2014
Messages
342
Location
Australia, Victoria
Cia:
double zeroes.
Yeah, no.

4+ third party characters:
Chance: 30%
The only other character I consider to really have a chance that is third party is Snake. Unfortunately for Snake, I kinda doubt his inclusion now. Sakurai has really been pushing the Mario + Sonic + Mega Man + Pac-Man thing. Adding Snake kind of ruins that since he is also third party. He also doesn't fit in with the Smash cast like the other third pary characters do.

Want: abstain
This really depends on the character. For example, I'm all for Rayman to be in but against, let's say, Commander Shepheard.

Groose Representation:
Chance: 95%
With the amount of promotion Nintendo has been giving Skyward Sword, it'd be strange not to have one of the games main characters in especially since Smash Wii U and 3DS have more trophies than Brawl, which is a ridiculous amount.
Want: 100%
Hell yes! Just watch this. It was hilarious the first time I saw it.
[collapse=One of Groose's best moments]
[/collapse]


THE GROOSE SHALL BE LOOSE!
I love how that has become a meme.

Nominations:
Uh... yeah, I'm not going to be nominating anything new because there is only so much time left. I'm going to nominate already existing noms instead.
5 x Impa rerate

Predictions:
Balance Patches - 67%
Dragon Quest Representation - 60%
3DS Sonic Stage (not Green Hill) - 30%


Hey @Brawler610 will there be some sort of special day once we've done the final ratings?
 
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Starbound

Worlds Apart, But Still Together.
Joined
Jan 31, 2012
Messages
4,083
Location
Canada
4 Third Parties and Cia are getting the same score: 0% Chance / 0% Want

Abstaining from Groose.

5x Bowser Jr
 

The Light Music Club

Smash Master
Joined
Dec 25, 2013
Messages
3,225
Location
Knoxville, MD/Elizabethtown, PA
NNID
_TLMC_
3DS FC
0576-6097-0725
Hey guys I officially moved in to college!!! Hope everything goes well for you @ Groose Groose Oh, by the way, that girl you know isn't named Kelsey is she??


Groose Representation:
Chance: 75% - I could see him getting a trophy, but it also depends on how many other Zelda characters are thought to be more important.
Want: 75% - Just for the sake of @ Groose Groose and the rest of the supporters. I don't really mind. I hope Lana gets one though.

Cia:
Chance: 3% - Seems like a minor character.
Want: 5% - No connection, and I don't like the character design.

4 or More 3rd Parties
Chance: 50% - I think Snake still has a shot. But him not being with the other 3 guests on the box art hurts him. Layton, could still surprise us also.
Want: 100% - I hate cuts. And if not Snake, there are a bunch of other third parties that I would really like to have.

Predictions
Balance Patches: 44%
DQ Representation: 37% (I know a certain person will bump this up)
Sonic 3D Stage (Not Green Hill) : 22%

Nominations:
Micaiah x 5
 

Jason the Yoshi

Watching Me, Wanting Me
Joined
Feb 26, 2014
Messages
18,791
Location
Waiting for Jesus
Groose representation
Chance: 100%
Want: 100%
Sakurai oughta acknowledge Groose in some way

Cia
Chance: 0%
Want: 0%

4 or more 3rd party characters
Chance: 0%
Want: 0%
 

wizardto1

Smash Lord
Joined
Aug 1, 2014
Messages
1,026
Location
Lurking
NNID
waddledee3
3DS FC
1676-4166-2291
Groose Representation: 99%
Trophy at very least
Want: 50% Never played Skyward Sword
Cia: 0%
Want: 25% She's pretty but there's it
Snake 4 or more Third Party Characters: 60%
Normally I would have rated a 10% due to the boxart but...
http://www.imdb.com/name/nm1773881/
She made some of Metal Gear music in Brawl and she's returning...
Although it is possible she is creating different music in this game
Want: 100%
Predictions
Balance Patches:56.36%
DQ Represention: 19.43%
Duck Hunt Dog x5
 
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Glaciacott

Smash Lord
Joined
Aug 4, 2013
Messages
1,628
Location
Mintendo Noodle House
Cia
Double zeroes

Groose
Double 100%

More third parties
Chance - 5%
Want - 50%

Predictions
Balance - 73%
DQ representation - 3%
New 3DS Sanic stage - 21%

Nominations
"Here's how it's done!"
x5 Use your own Villager/Robin

Sorry for the super concise post, busy trying to finish Mother 3 by the end of this weekend.
 
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