Eirika
Chance - 0%
I'm going to forget about Gematsu giving us Chrom for now. Also going all out on this since Pacack showed interest and I want to live up to that.
When it comes to Fire Emblem characters, kind of like Pokemon, there's a lot of choices. A LOT. And the way I see it, here's the list in terms of likelihood:
Chrom
Robin ---> Awakening trio likely given awakening's fame, popularity and Arena Ferox being the first specific Fire Emblem stage.
Lucina
---
Roy --> Veteran
Lyn --> Only FE assist trophy reflecting her popularity, first FE lord for the west.
---
Anna
Hector
Ephraim --> Lords/main character/recurring character that offer diversity of moveset and some merit for inclusion
Micaiah
Celica
---
Sigurd --> I believe both of these were at least considered for Melee
Leif
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Eirika
Eliwood --> Remaining lords/main characters I can think of that don't offer as much diversity and don't have other
Seliph qualities to offer in terms of Smash Bros. recognition that I can think of (such as popularity)
Sothe
Notice where Eirika figures. Not exactly high on the priority list. And this is just thinking of main characters and lords of the series. There's a bunch of other characters who I thought of who could conceivably go in this list based on their popularity within their games and within their series, along with offering awesome possibilities (Black Knight, Soren ... heck, even Tharja) but not including them here since some are subjective and probably not worth even mentioning.
That's about twelve characters that figure over Eirika based on criteria I believe matter for consideration of a Fire Emblem character.
Additionally, it doesn't help that Eirika and Ephraim are pretty much tied in terms of importance, and the addition of one over the other makes no sense to me. And if any of them were added, Ephraim would make more sense given he at least has a different weapon. But even then, it'd make more sense for both to enter together. But, that's not what I'm rating here, so shucks.
Even more, Magvel is, I believe, the one continent of the Fire Emblem series to have only one appearance. Marth's continent (Achaenia ... ok, don't remember the spelling) has featured in a bunch of games, and it's the same one as Chrom. Ike's (Tellius) has Path of Radiance and Radiant Dawn. Roy and Lyn's (Elibe) had Fuuin no tsurugi and rekka no ken. Given this, I'm not keen on expecting much from the Sacred Stones games. (and if so, I'd personally like Ephraim, Joshua or Lyon a lot more.)
And hey, I just remembered something ... Gematsu! Which I believe to be accurate, which means Chrom has a huge huge chance. Did I give him 85%? I think so. So, that really leaves Eirika pretty much with extremely unlikely chances because now Chrom is nearly confirmed and a fourth Fire Emblem character would be 1) absurd and extremely not likely, and 2) most definitely not another sword lord, unless they're called Roy/Lucina.
Yes, she's not Owain ... but at this point, like I said, it's a really negligible difference from 0% to less than 1%.
Nah, screw it, I convinced myself too much, she gets a 0%.
Right, and in case Brawler610 was playing his own game, awakening awakening awakening awakening awakening awakening awakening awakening awakening awakening awakening awakening awakening awakening awakening awakening awakening.
Want - 0%
It'd make no sense to me and I personally would be annoyed for Eirika to be playable but not Lyn. But that's just because I happen to like Lyn more, find her more important, more iconic, offers more as a fighter than being female, and her playing style would probably offer more than another lord that uses a rapier. Yes guys, conceptually Eirika is the same as most Fire Emblem lords. At least Chrom/Sigurd/Eliwood had lances.
That said, I want to mention I really had nothing against Eirika in her game. I like Sacred Stones, it'd a great game, great story, etc etc. But she just doesn't have the chops for Smash Bros inclusion.
Also, I love Fire Emblem but people nominating their favorite unlikely Fire Emblem character is a bit tiring.
Mr. Dream boss
Chance - 2%
There's some chance, but it's probably not high at all given so many iconic boxers being probably more likely than him. You know, since in the end Mr. Dream is just a not-Tyson alternative.
Want - 0%
Give me King Hippo, or Soda Popinski, or Mr. Sandman, or Macho Man ... like I said, there's a lot more interesting, iconic boxers they could use.
Predictions
In the Final - 8.7%
don't know how to predict music, but I find it bordering unlikely more than possible. Sadly.
You will know our names - 83%
I'd be extremely extremely shocked if this song doesn't come with Shulk. It should have the same chance.
Nominations
x5 Unrevealed newcomers as unlockables