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[andimidna]

Gematsu Leak Chance: 91% (previously 30%)

I need to get this out of the way so I can rate each character inside of it equal to or higher.

Spoiler

The only reason I used to doubt the Gematsu Leak was Miis. They seems to be possibly deconfirmed, but they had a loophole, exceptions were made to get them in, they didn't follow the rules the other characters set, I mean, a Smash symbol, really? I guess the concept of each type of Mii is Smash made, but it's just... weird. It makes sense that those stages don't have a Smash or a Mii symbol now. Now to the present--
My only doubt is this discussion on cutting an Earthbound character sounds dumb. How would they still be deciding so late? How has it not been decided? Well, I'm not going to focus too much on this because a lot of his info has been outdated. And, it's possible they had a slot reserved for one and never got around to the decision. But that seems unlikely, I'd bet on the first one.
So, at first I though Sakurai's Greninja comment hurt the leak, as he was chosen "long before X and Y released"... but once again, outdated information. So, it actually helps. It also explains why Villager didn't have a name yet, and Miis weren't officially leaked as "Mii Fighter" until later, so he's been receiving info as the game develops, but he's always quite a few steps behind the development team, but still, he gets the information before us. I just hope he doesn't leak anything else. This is enough. Even if it's a character I like, I want the reveal trailer. And I strongly believe we have more newcomers than the Gematsu 11 and Rosalina. Thank Palutena that Rosalina was revealed though, I would be losing all hope in a decent roster if it wasn't for her, proving we can get newcomers off the leak.

And yes, no character will be ranked lower. Why?

Chorus Men:
THIS IS NOT MARSHALL!
Marshall actually has a name to his character, he's much more well-known and iconic than the boys in the 1 minigame.
So yes, he makes more sense, but Sal isn't leaking him so he's not happening (we all know 2 RH characters isn't happening)
And if the leak is true, these guys ARE happening! The Marshall theory is backed up by nothing and I could see these 3 being chosen for uniqueness.
Chance: 91% (previously 40%)
The exact same score I gave the leak. I think they are 100% dependent on the leak, even if a RH could happen w/o the leak, these 3 need it. I'm not adding anything because of the ghost in Smash Run, I think that Marshall would be picked as the rep if the leak isn't real. But I think the leak is real, and they aren't Marshall. I'm pretty sure about this one.

Want: 77% (previously 40%)
I've warmed up to them a lot. I started neutral, but... they're pretty cute. And y'know what? RH deserves this.

Shulk:
Chance: 95% (previously 79%)
If the leak isn't real, he'll probably just get in anyways! But the leak is probably real. So he's pretty much the new Pac-Man for likelihood.
Want: 99% (previously 99%)
Still love the guy. Put him in, Sakurai.

Chrom:
Chance: 98% (previously 87%)
And here we have the new Palutena. Yea... I really have a hard time picturing him not being on the roster
I would like to add that I do not put this in competition with the Chrom-cina team, as I think of Lucina as more of an accessory to Chrom for uniqueness in that pairing, which sucks to say, but he'd still be the focus. It just seems inaccurate to give both possible outcomes for Chrom less than 50% chance, and I could see it going either way, so I rate them both over 50 even though that doesn't actually make sense.
Anyways star of the game blah blah blah extremely popular blah blah blah the success of Awakening blah.
So now if Robin, Anna, or Lucina make it, I think they'll be a 4th FE character.

Want: I don't know, I'm trying to force myself to like him again so I can be excited when he gets revealed, because I've accepted it will happen. I can't put a number on this atm.

Now back to the leak as a whole...
Gematsu Leak Want: It has one of my most wanted, a character I've warmed up to, and Chrom.
I don't like leaks at all though. But eh...
50? I...
I hated it before, even though I gave it a 60% want because I was tired.
I'm just expecting it. I don't think I can rate my want for this. At least, not until I figure out how I feel about Chrom.

Predictions:
King K Rool- 59%
Dixie Kong- 41%

Honestly, I'm back on the Dixie train, I thought that K Rool was more likely for a long time there, but I'm beginning to doubt that. However, I'm sure you guys will always rate him higher, I mean, he is more popular for sure.

 

[Hippopotasauce]

Gematsu Leak Likelihood: 75%
Want: 90%

Chrom Likelihood: 78%
Want: 55%

Shulk Likelihood: 77%
Want: 78%

Chorus Kids Likelihood: 75%
Want: 100%

K. Rool: 71%
Dixie Kong: 68.56%

 

[Wyoming]

Gematsu Leak Likelihood: 90% - would be 100% if it wasn't for a few fishy details. Not sure why all of a sudden he mentioned veterans being cut. The newcomers all seem to have something heavily favouring them, especially Chorus Men since a RH character was seen in Smash Run.

Want: 70% - Some doubts that it could be the only newcomers we get, but I don't think that. It seems like a bunch of characters that were planned for presentations, and since I strongly question the possibility of us getting every character pre-release, I'm sure there's more to come. So overall, not so bad but not the strongest list.

Chrom

Chance - 90% - It was 97%? before. I think Ike being confirmed lowers his chances slightly (since for all we know, it could have been between him or Chrom) but his chances are still good. Both Marth and Ike look like starters to me, meaning Chrom would take over as the secret Fire Emblem character...if we have one.

Want - 50% - Very indifferent but he does seem kind of bland now that Ike's been confirmed. Some characters from the franchise seem like better choices right now but I don't mind him.

Shulk

Chance - 90% - I'd be shocked if Xenoblade doesn't get any representation really. The only concern is that there's nothing really hinting him unlike the other two. But I'm expecting him in the game at this point.

Want - 80% - He'd be a good addition. Very unique and would add an extra (good) series to the game with all of its content.

Chorus Men

Chance - 95% - A Rhythm Heaven character being in Smash Run is big points for him. Seems like an unorthodox secret Sakurai character to add as well so it's all coming together, albeit one step at a time.

Want - 50% - I'm sure he'll somehow have an interesting move set. I don't mind him, despite the bland design he possesses. I'm sure eventually, if he's in, he'll be loved just like how Mr. Game & Watch is. He reminds me of him in many ways.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Gematsu Leak:
Chance: 94%
Mii Fighters, Sakurai X/Y comment, Rhythm Heaven enemies in Smash Run...only thing against is any mention of Rosalina.

Want: 43%
Rhythm Heaven rep of some variety is great in my eyes, after watching the new Xenoblade at E3 I guess I'm now less neutral about Shulk, never cared about Lucas so cut away I guess, especially since Lucas fans will probably get him back anyway via that DLC. Chrom I'm still dreading, but see as extremely likely.

However it's also a pain in the ass, because now half the fun of speculation has disappeared and that roster seems pretty lackluster as a whole to me with only the two third parties and arguably Mii Fighter as big names to draw new fans in.

Overall I think the roster of Villager, Megaman, Wii Fit Trainer, Little Mac, Pokemon X/Y Greninja, Mii Fighter, Palutena, Pac-Man, Shulk, Chrom and Chorus Kids is...a little lacking.
The fans have spoken out and Mewtwo, K. Rool, Ridley, Dixie Kong, Isaac, etc have been all highly anticipated choices that are missing out for...Wii Fit Trainer, a trio of Mii, a fusion of two characters who are already IN the game in Chrom's case (presumably anyway) and the random choices in Greninja and Chorus Kids.

The DLC suggestion is all that could save the roster from being called out as one of the lamest overall by throwing some fan favourites in there apart from Megaman. Other than that the only saving grace is that there was no mention of Rosalina so maybe a few either weren't leaked on purpose or slipped through the net of information.

Shulk
Chance: 94%
Gematsu leak, Xenoblade officially recognised as a series now, Sakurai's possible Twitter hint, but mostly Gematsu leak.

Want: 65%
I was mostly neutral before, but Shulk's a decent enough newcomer...just not one I can get hyped over having not played his game.

Chrom
Chance: 94%
Gematsu leak, one of three protagonists in the game that saved the franchise from dying off, and was always likely even without Gematsu.

Want: 0%
Chrom was created by combining the two most popular lords; Marth and Ike into one design. Both those guys are in Smash already, and I really can't see Chrom as anything but a lame middle ground between those two lords in both abilities, looks and playstyles. Hopefully I'm proven wrong and Chrom looks like fun, but I'm cynical on that.

Chorus Kids
Chance: 94%
Gematsu leak...err...Smash run enemy I guess. Nearly entirely the Gematsu leak though.

Want: 70%
Always wanted some sort of Rhythm Heaven Rep...no idea how it'd work though, and with the 3DS holding the Ice Climbers back slightly there I wonder what THREE individuals would do to the system in a tag team if all four players chose them at once.

 

[Shorts]

100 percent. its real

 

[Wombatz]

Gematsu Leak - 79%

Chrom - 91%

Shulk - 95%

Chorus Men - 79%
If the leak is real they are in, otherwise no.


K Rool - 80%
Dixie - 65%

 

[Glaciacott]

Gematsu Leak - 95%
Other people have said it: after E3 it's hard to argue against this being true. I do think there's more aside from the leak though.

Want - 100%
All of it. Since I think there's more than what he leaked (eg. Rosalina) to me this is just confirmation about Shulk, Chrom and Chorus Kids and that's awesome. I can't hate that. I also have expected Lucas to be likely to get the boot, but either way I don't care. Point is, damn, these three additions would be awesome.
Aside from that, the comments from Treehouse made it seem like there's layers of secrecy. Like, the dude commented about having to almost play as one of the newcomers while hidden in a closet. So given this, I think that there might be newcomers the guy's leaker is simply not aware of. And yes, I very very very much hope that means Ridley and DK rep still have a shot.
Also, Sakurai being a troll and bringing to everyone's attention that Samus and DK weren't picked. **** you Sakurai for giving me hope.
Now, if I'm wrong and this is it when it comes to characters ... **** it, I still love it. I got Palutena and Rhythm Heaven representation, plus the promise of DLC and a possible Villains pack later down the road. Ain't going to fight that.

Shulk - 99%
Gematsu aside, I think he should be our most likely now. I'm as sure of him currently as I was of Palutena, Mac and Mega Man before their reveals.
His game is now an ongoing series
His game sold millions and led to a huge campaign Nintendo chose to acknowledge
Sakurai took that pic of the Monado
Everyone and their mothers likes this game
Great story, great character, great universe with lots of monsters for smash run, lots of places for stages, lots of music, lots of content ... just very rich.

Yea, it's happening

Want - 100%
I want this so much now. With each passing moment I'm more and more excited by Shulk and in part I blame brawler610 for that. I'm also going to be watching a let's play soon because 1) I suck at finishing JRPGs, 2) way too busy to play it myself and 3) he represents the only Smash Bros U franchise I have not played.
So I expect my want to go even higher, and I'm really psyched to see his trailer.

Chrom - 85%
Raised him by 15%. The leak becoming more certain means to me that Chrom is pretty freaking likely to happen. However, I admit there's more room for doubt as they could randomly go with another FE rep, but it's still pretty likely they won't.

Want - 50%
I'm still split because I like Robin soooo much more. However, I'm pretty sure that as a fan of Fire Emblem, and as someone who went through the story as Chrom's wife, I'll be pretty freaking happy and psyched when his trailer shows up. And Pac-Man's inclusion being such a great moveset to represent Namco, I'm hoping that Chrom's moveset is less random sword swinging and more of a tribute to all of Awakening, or even all of Fire Emblem ... for one, he could actually use the actual Fire Emblem ... from his game.

Chorus Kids - 85%
Same as Chrom for similar reasons. I think they're extremely likely now that the gematsu leak is so certain, as well as the fact that the Sneaky Spirit proves that Rhythm Heaven will get content (and I believe it's also the only baddie we know of representing a franchise that doesn't have a character announced yet.) However, to be fair, I keep their score a bit lower, like Chrom, due to the chance of another Rhythm Heaven rep (Marshall being the most likely switcheroo.)

Want - 100%
Been wanting a Rhythm Heaven rep for sooo long. It's such an awesome franchise, so fun and beautiful and wacky, I am ecstatic to see it's getting representation. I think this is the main reason I like the Gematsu leak so much: let's be honest, a lot of these characters were a given, so Palutena didn't get me to love the leak because true or not, she was in anyways. Same goes for Mega Man and Pac Man and Little Mac, etc.
However, the idea of a Rhythm Heaven rep is one I was eager to see but hesitant to believe a guarantee. I felt it was likely, but the room for doubt was there. After the leak, it's like the doubt was thrown aside. And it's awesome, and even more awesome to see that because of the leak Rhythm Heaven is now more in everyone's map and people are starting to play it and experience it and look it up ... ****ING YES! I'm loving this, and I can't wait to see how appreciation for that series explodes with their inclusion in Smash.

 

[~Krystal~]

Gematsu Leak

Chance: 95%

After so many on point predictions, it's becoming hard to discredit Sal's source. I think he's stumbled upon a real gold mine of information. This leaker is scary accurate, with Rosalina being the only spot on his otherwise pristine record.

Want: 40%

The characters are passable, but the opportunity to assemble a truly stellar roster would feel wasted if the ongoing stream of newcomers stopped here. I'm not even sure how big a factor DLC will be, assuming it's actually getting implemented.


Shulk

Chance: 99%

What's Xenoblade? I have no idea what this game is about, but apparently it's got a boat load of fans. As much as we like to say unique playstyles are the driving factor behind making the starting lineup, it's really still a what have you done for me lately affair.

Want: 90%

If the rumor holds true, I'm more than willing to give Shulk a chance, and this is partly what Smash is about. Exposing players to new characters and franchises.


Chrom

Chance: 100%

FE: Awakening is going to get representation in some form, and you have to figure it's going to be the lead.

Want: 60%

The question that needs to be asked here is how will Chrom separate himself from the current sword wielding lords? Will he bring a redundant playstyle or will he have a distinct feel? Not being an overly huge FE fan, I don't have a lot of hope or expectations for this character, I just know he's getting in. With Lucina at hand, however, my rating would rise. I truly think he'll need the element of working as a duo to avoid coming off as though the developers reached for him in the name of appeasing the masses.


Chorus Men

Chance: 85%

It's certainly going to be a hat trick by Nintendo to whip up a moveset for these creatures. I for one will be impressed, but until that reveal comes, my skepticism remains.

Want: 30%

A Rhythm Heaven entrant would be interesting, I'm just not sure I want it to be the Chorus Men. But hey, stranger things have happened. I never imagined R.O.B. would be a quality newcomer - an accessory to a console of all things - and he was.

 

[PK_Wonder]

Gematsu leak - 95% I don't doubt that the source has inside information, but I am open to the possibility that a fact or two was subject to change and therefore, wrong in the end.
Want - 50% I want both Shulk and Chrom, but wanting this more depends on if we get an additional character or not.

Chrom - 99.98%
Want - 100%

Shulk - 99.99%
Want - 100%

Chorus Men - 75%
Want - 25%

 

[Erimir]

Gematsu leak

I pretty much fully believe that this was a legitimate leak.

However the evidence (not know Greninja, discussion of cutting characters, being incorrect about the timing of reveals, etc.) suggests that his information is from a while ago.

Long enough ago that there's a possibility that something could have changed since he got it. Mainly that would be Chrom being switched for another FE character, or Chorus Men being replaced with a different RH character (probably Marshal). It depends on how much was still up in the air. They hadn't decided on Greninja, so it's possible that they might've changed their mind about the Chorus Men (say, after encountering difficulties implementing the Ice Climbers or Olimar, whatever). It's also possible that one of them doesn't make it due to time constraints or whatever. There's enough things that could happen during development that I can bump a couple % off.

Gematsu leak chance: 96.5%
But probably it's all coming true.

Gematsu leak want: 35%
If we don't get any more newcomers, it's like 10%... Shulk is the only thing I like about the remaining parts of the leak. If we get a couple additional characters (such as Ridley or K Rool) I will be more just indifferent, with Shulk being balanced out by Chrom and Chorus Men.

Shulk chance: 99%

Shulk want: 70%
Good choice. I like Xenoblade, although Shulk himself is just ok IMO. I thought Dunban was a more interesting character. And Fiora would be more interesting for a move set.

Chrom chance: 99%
More likely than Shulk or Chorus Men if the leak is somehow false or they had bad info, but more likely to have a change of mind since FE has some other good choices (better choices, IMO).

Chrom want: 10%
My want just keeps going down. He's boring, boring, boring. A female character, a non-sword user, hell, even a male lord who doesn't have bluish hair, would be more interesting.

At least they're not move set clones. They're just clones in concept and appearance.

Chorus Men chance: 96.5%
This is the most likely one to change in development. It's a trio. Now, I personally think they won't work like the Ice Climbers. I'm thinking they might be a tightly packed trio - it might be that they can't be separated. In which case they're basically like any other newcomer except with a more complicated model and some funky moves.

But maybe I'm wrong. And with Olimar being reduced and Ice Climbers MIA for so long, it's not out of the question that this idea was dropped in favor of some other Rhythm Heaven character or something else entirely. But probably they'll be in. Without the leak they have basically no chance.

Chorus Men want: 36%
Not interested. If this is our last newcomer, I'll be quite irked.

Predictions:
K Rool - 45%
Gematsu characters make it so there's less room for everyone else, unfortunately.

Dixie - 30%
Her chances should go down for similar reasons.

Finally, if we multiply those three chances together, we get the chance of all three making it in at 53.4%. Pretty low, honestly, but if I'm going to stick with the above ratings, that's what the number ends up being. I'll definitely be operating under the assumption that the three are in until proven otherwise, and I gotta say, I'd be all too happy to be proven wrong on this front.

Multiplying them together implies that they're independent events... I don't think they are though.

Shulk - 99%
His game sold millions and led to a huge campaign Nintendo chose to acknowledge

His game sold less than a million. It did, however, have a somewhat limited run in the US, so there was unmet demand if you ask me. Given how much copies were selling for online, they probably could've made it to a million copies sold had they just printed more copies.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Gematsu Leak:

Chance: 100% - There's not a doubt in my mind that it's the real deal, everything goes for it and there's almost nothing going against it (Rosalina, which means nothing honestly.) The fact that he mentioned a Pokémon from X & Y rather than Greninja actually adds to the legitimacy of the leak if you ask me now that we know that's what Sakurai wrote it down as early on. It's early information most likely, but it's legitimate nonetheless.

Want: 0% - With that said, I hate it.

Shulk:

Chance: 100% - Yeah, the rest of the characters will go hand in hand with the leak.

Want: 30% - Eh, I don't care an awful lot about him. He seems like he'd be more interesting than your regular swordsman, but that's still not anything that intrigues me.

Chrom:

Chance: 100%

Want: 15% - Would much have prefered a more interesting FE rep.

Chorus Men:

Chance: 100%

Want: 0% - Ew.

 

[Cpt.]

Gematsu leak

Chance: 90%

Sakurai could have changed something after the leaker saw it.

Want: 60%

It's not so much that I want these characters, more like I think they deserve it.

 

[a Link to the Forums]

Gematsu Leak

Chance: Abstain
To be perfectly honest... I DON'T KNOW WHAT TO BELIEVE ANY MORE! Everyone here seems very confident in it's legitimacy. Me however, I don't know. It just keeps on getting more and more likely but for me there is still a lot of doubt. I want to say it's real but I just can't. Maybe it's my screwed up mind or something on those lines.

Want: Abstain
I'll go into detail with this below with the characters below but basically, I'm fine with the characters on the leak, my beef comes from how many other characters I'd like to see before them and this leak certainly doesn't raise there chances.

Chrom:

Chance: 75%
This is probably going to be one of my only actual ratings on this post. To sum up, FE Awakening was the game that literally saved the entire franchise, it is quite popular as far as 3ds games come as well and Chrom seems like the most obvious character to include (for me).

Want: 75%
I like Chrom. He remains one of my most wanted (not my most wanted from Awakening though) characters. My beef with his inclusion however is, if he is added, that would make 3 FE characters when other franchises deserve more by a long shot. However, I doubt he'd become a clone of Marth or Ike and think his chances to not be unique are slim (from what we've seen with the other newcomers).

Shulk and Chorus Men:

Chance: Abstain
I know very little of either of these two franchises so I don't think I can give either of them a fair rating.

Want: Abstain
Same as before.


Predictions:
K Rool - 75%
Dixie - 55%

 

[SmasherMaster]

Gematsu Leak

Chance- 90%
I don't think that Lucas and Ness being debated would happen this late in the game. Plus, I think the info might be somewhat outdated (as seen with Animal Crossing Guy, Mii Fighters and Pokemon X/Y)

Want- 60%
Only if they are the only other newcomers. This would be the worst group of newcomers yet. Instead of having Nintendo Allstars like Toad, Ridley, K Rool, Isaac, etc. we got Wii Fit Tainer, three types of Miis, Chrom, Chorus Men, Greninja, Rosalina and two third party characters. Plus I don't want any more cuts.

I will rate Shulk, Chrom and Chorus Boys.

 

[Camc10]

Gemastu
Chance:95.98%
Want: 100%
8/11 Characters were in the leak and are confirmed, Dlc is likely, And they never said if that was all the newcomers. I'd be okay with this.
Shulk, Chrom, and Chorus Men
Want 100%
Shulk: 89-99%
We haven't seen anything Xenoblade but Shulk has always been a fan favorite.
Chrom: 85-99%
Chrom is the last lord but he does seem at least a little similar to Marth and Ike.
Chorus Men or Marshall:99-100%
The sneaky spirit is the reason why I have a range for the percentages. While technically so far, all enemys in smash run are tied to a stage, but they can be tied to characters too. (Find mii ghost to miis)

 

[YT123]

Gematsu Leak
Chance: 95%
Want: 90% Gimme Shulk!

Shulk
Chance: 95%
Want: 100%

Chrom
Chance: 90%
Want: 90%

Chrorus Men
Chance: 90%
Want: 50%

 

[foolssigma]

Gematsu Leak:

Chance - 92%. The Sneaky Spirit in Smash was the turning point for me.
Want - 91%. Shulk, enough said.

Chorus Men:

Chance - 87%. I believe there will definitely be a rep from RH, but I feel like it could either be Marshall or the trio.
Want - 60%. Sounds unique. I'm slowly warming up to the concept.

Chrom:

Chance - 90%. Why not add another FE character?
Want - 60%. Chrom is cool and all, but I'd rather have Robin. Robin was arguably a better character in Awakening and has far more to contribute to Smash. Too much blue hair in one niche series is bad.

Shulk:

Chance - 95%. Officially confirmed as a series. Recent new IP. Generally popular and well requested. If Sakurai showed anything relating to Xenoblade, the surprise would be gone. Betting Mechon will show up once he is announced.

Want - 100%. Basically revived my idle account in order to post in the Shulk thread when speculation for Smash 4 started up.

Note: I think there will be a few more characters past Gematsu. No need to be pessimistic, Sakurai definitely finished things far faster than he anticipated due to his larger development team.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

Gematsu leak Chance:100%

Want:Abstain

Chrom Chance:100%
Want:50%

Chorus Men Chance:100%
Want:50%

Shulk Chance:100%
Want:50%

Gematsu leak



Chrom want: 10%
My want just keeps going down. He's boring, boring, boring. A female character, a non-sword user, hell, even a male lord who doesn't have bluish hair, would be more interesting.

At least they're not move set clones. They're just clones in concept and appearance.

...I'm not really sure why blue hair matters. Ike has blue hair and is fundamentally different from Marth, unlike Roy (and Chrom, of course), seeing as he is scruffier-looking than Marth, is a mercenary as opposed to a royal youth and has a much more different type of sword to boot.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Gematsu Leak, Shulk, Chrom, and Chorus Men Chance: 99% All you have to do to believe this leak is to look at the Sneaky Spirit enemy in Smash Run. That drives Gematsu's credibility to 99%.
Gematsu Want: 90% Not particularly fond of the list, but at least the characters listed make clear sense.
Shulk Want: 100% Now I'm pretty excited which content Xenoblade gets.
Chrom Want: 80%
Chorus Men Want: 80% I've been wanting a trio in a Smash game, personally wanted it to be Alph, Brittany, and Charlie, but since Chorus Men take that role, it kinda ticked me off.

 

[Chauzu]

Gematsu

Chance: 80%

It is hard to rate Gematsu leak for several reasons. First, we have the middle guy supplying info to Sal, and we have no idea how he gets the information and how trustworthy the information is. So far though, it hasn't been debunked once in over a year so that's quite the feat, along with predicting chars like WFT, Mega Man and Villager (aka Animal Crossing Guy). I am confident the original leak is 100% real, and the fact that Pac-Man, Mii and Little Mac didn't show up was due to change of plans. This change of plans indicate something though - the info isn't always up to date. While the leak hasn't been wrong, it hasn't been 100% correct on everything and with every new piece supporting Gematsu we have something else pointing against it. No Rosalina mentioned in original leak. Greninja was in but mentioned as Pokémon from XY. Mii Fighters name confirmed while mentioning the name Goddess Palutena.

I could write more but meh. I do believe the leak is true but the jury is out for the 2nd part of it. Palutena was pretty given to be included and the same goes from a Pokémon from XY. I won't be 100% believing this leak until we have a rep from Rhythm Heaven confirmed for Smash 4. Heck, a rep from Rhythm Heaven would be 10 times more absurd than WFT in my opinion.

Want: 50%

Meh, it's ok. I'd like more chars as well though.

Chrom

Chance: 85%

Got a lot going for it. Gematsu leak, main guy of new FE game (which has also been the most succesful) and we have got a new FE rep every game since Melee. However, this is also the first time we have two FE veterans as well, and I can still see Sakurai wanting a more unique rep from FE. Still very likely.

Want: 25%

Would rather another FE rep.

Shulk

Chance: 66%

E3 has actually made me feel Shulk's chances are lowered. By the sound of it, the new Xenoblade is a spiritual sequel - thus implying Shulk isn't in it. So then why would Nintendo want a guy from a single game - and who also isn't pure first party - to be in the game? Logically it doesn't make sense but who knows, Shulk might make a cameo in the new game still. And the voice actor news support this leak from Gematsu as well. I won't believe it until I see it though.

Want: 50%

Why not? Never played his game but sounds like he would be unique.

Rhythm Heaven Rep ("Chorus Men")

Chance: 50%

Outside of the Gematsu leak, a rep from Rhythm Heaven only has two things going for it. The 1st is that it is a first party Nintendo franchise, and the 2nd is that the series had an enemy in Smash Run. Besides that, there is nothing logical about having a Rhythm Heaven rep in the game. If not for Gematsu the chance would be less than 5% in my book. This just shows how much credability the leak has, but I can't give such an outrageous new character more than 50% chance.

Want: 20%

I'll ofc love it when I see it in action but can't say I'm fired up about it.

 

[Sonic Poke]

Everything chance: 100%- It's obvious by now. I'm not going to be in denial.
Everything want: 90%- I have ever wanted Shulk and Chrom, Rhythm Heaven rep is a bonus. Lucas cut is sad, but DLC made me happy.

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Everything chance: 100%- It's obvious by now. I'm not going to be in denial.
Everything want: 90%- I have ever wanted Shulk and Chrom, Rhythm Heaven rep is a bonus. Lucas cut is sad, but DLC made me happy.

To be FAIR, he said they are debating on cutting Ness or Lucas, with Ness winning (likely because 3-for-3 vet status) but never said they WOULD have to cut one. I think it's more of a we MAY cut one if we are running low on time thing. But, IMO, why would Kid Icarus get 2 with EarthBound getting only one, down from 2?

 

[a smart guy]

Gematsu Leak:
Chance: 90% Very likely, but not confirmed.
Want: 50% Character slots are running out, but there is always DLC

Shulk:
Chance: 100%
Want: 90%

Chrom:
Chance: 90%
Want: 50%

Chorus Men:
Chance: 90%
Want: 60%

 

[Rockaphin]

Leak:
Chance: 80%
Want: 20%

Chrom:
Chance: 85%
Want: 70%
I'd take most other FE characters, but I wouldn't mind Chrom.

Shulk:
Chance: 75%
Want: 5%
I kind of support Shulk, but I don't really care for him at all.

Chorus Men:
Chance: 60%
Want: 1%
Not interested at all. Chance is 60% due to the leak.

 

[Sabrewulf238]

Gematsu leak chance - 97%
Gematsu leak want - 80%

Shulk is a big yay, Chrom and Chorus Men are a big nay.

Shulk chance - 95%
Shulk Want - 100%

One word: Gimmie

Chrom chance - 93%
Chrom want - 10%

Meh, I'd rather have Robin (or Roy, or Anna......or Micaiah)

Chorus Men chance - 90%
Chorus Men want - 15%

I guess I'm a little curious, but I don't really want them.

 

[Xenigma]

Multiplying them together implies that they're independent events... I don't think they are though.

I don't see why they wouldn't be. Sakurai isn't obligated to fulfill the leak perfectly, and each character has their own unique reasons both to be included and to possibly be cut/replaced in development. Getting all three remains the most likely scenario, and my number reflects that, but it also acknowledges that any of the three could individually run into trouble and "disprove" the leak.

 

[colder_than_ice]

The Leak
Chance: 77% - I think it's pretty much confirmed.
Want: 90% - After thinking it through I'd actually be pretty happy if this was the final newcomer list. We have gaming icons Mega Man and Pacman, Little Mac, Shulk, Rosalina, and Chrom.

Chrom
Chance: 83% - Even with Marth and Ike, his chances have never been better.
Want: 100% - He has been among my most wanted newcomers since before Awakening got an overseas release. I hope Sakurai can give him a unique moveset, but it won't bother me if he doesn't.

The incredible Shulk
Chance: 93% - I don't think I've ever given a possible newcomer a score this high before but he has almost everything going in his favour. Unique moveset, popular new franchise and a leak.
Want: 89% - He has my full support.

Chorus Kids
Chance: 71% - I'm rating them a little lower than the leak itself on the grounds of Marshal.
Want: 81% - I support the choir.

King K. Rool prediction: 55%
Dixie prediction: 42%

 

[Louie G.]

Here we go...

Gematsu Leak:
Chance: 99%
There is hardly anything going against this leak. It has not been wrong about a character yet. Rhythm Heaven has an enemy in Smash Run. The only thing against it is literally that he didn't mention Rosalina, and even so he was talking about E3 where I doubt Rosalina was ever planned to be revealed in. Even the "Pokemon from X/Y" part has basically been proven since Sakurai mentioned that Greninja was added as a result of an open slot for Pokemon, meaning that he was not planned by name to begin with.
Want: 100%
Really it's only 100% because Chorus Men. I'm indifferent towards Chrom, Shulk, and Lucas's cut, however I do like Shulk a lot.

Shulk:
Chance: 99%
He's likely without the leak, and even likelier with it. He's from an important new Nintendo IP, he's popular, and he can be really interesting and unique. He's pretty much guaranteed at this point, along with the rest of the leak of course.
Want: 80%
He's neat. The Monado can give him a Magnus-like feel (Kid Icarus) which I found to be a cool playstyle in Uprising.

Chrom:
Chance: 99%
We've been over Chrom enough. Let's just say the leak is keeping his already high chances alive.
Want: 70%
There are more interesting choices, but I'm confident that Sakurai can do something interesting with Chrom.

Chorus Men Kids:
Chance: 98%
There's a RH enemy, and of course the leak in their favor. There's a percent taken off for the slim chance that it's Marshal. They really represent Rhythm Heaven well regardless, and are pretty iconic and well known within the series.
Want: 100%
Chorus Kids are my second most wanted newcomers. Why? Well they have TONS of potential. They are a trio, can have a rhythm based moveset, and are just so goofy and fun. Rhythm Heaven is a great series with literally endless potential for a playable character. Chorus Kids represent RH the best out of any possible representative. They are music based and are a trio of characters, a common theme in the series (many games involve duos, trios, and quartets keeping the beat). Chorus Kids are a genius addition and people will realize that when they are revealed.

K. Rool Prediction: 57.5%
Dixie Kong Prediction: 35.6%

 

[Toxicroaker]

Gematsu Leak: 95% I'm not going into detail with this, as I think it has already been summed up pretty good by everyone else.
Want: 0% Noooooooo...

Chorus Men: 94% These are the only leaked characters here that depend 100% on the leak. However, the leak has been a little off before so that 1% less is for if he meant Marshall instead. (0% without the leak)
Want: 0%

Shulk: 98% He probably would have happened even if the leak wasn't real. (60% without the leak)
Want: 0%

Chrom: 98% He is in the same boat as Shulk.
Want: 100% Awakening is my favorite game on the 3DS and he is the only one that makes sense for smash from that game. (Lucina is the third and arguably second main character, but she isn't the first, so adding her just because moar females! is a bad idea.)

King K. Rool: 32.91%
Dixie Kong: 28.91%

 

[Twin Shot]

Leak Chance: 80%
Want: 66%

I think (as discussed by other people as well) that the leak is based on old information.
It's definitely "mostly" right but will provide some logic on to why I feel it is outdated:

- Pokemon X/Y. He didn't know the pokemon was Greninja ahead of time. Sakurai stated that they know all characters prior to starting the game.
- Ness vs Lucas. If they do decide every character before even starting the game, this debate wouldn't of been possible.
- Rosalina. Possibly added later in development, so was tacked onto the list AFTER the leaker go the info.

This leads me to think that the leak is correct, but will have some information wrong.


Chorus Men:
Chance: 90%
Want: 80%

To me, the smash run enemy basically confirms this.
Think Sakurai would do something amazing with this character, like he did with the Hanenbow level.
However, I am not entirely sure he will go with the trio instead of just Marshall.


Chrom:
Chance: 50%
Want: 10%

Honestly, I think his chances diminished when Ike was announced to come back.
Again, because I feel like the leak was early info...felt like this was something that changed in development.
If DLC is true, I think Chrom will make an appearance then.


Shulk:
Chance: 66%
Want: 50%

There has been no evidence provided that Shulk will be in the game aside from the leak.
Haven't played Xenoblade, so left want at 50/50. If he does appear in smash, it would be a good incentive for me to try it out

 

[Smasher 101]

Gematsu Leak: 95% - I think it's true at this point.
Want: 30% - Personally I think Chrom is a great addition, but I don't care much about Shulk, and I think there are better choices for a Rhythm Heaven character than the Chrous Kids. Plus if these are all the characters than I'll be extremely disappointed about the lack of a DK newcomer.

Shulk's chances: 95%
Want: 40% - Again, not that interested in him, but he's not a terrible addition.

Chrom's chances: 95%
Want: 100% - I like him.

Chrous Kids' chances: 80% - Less than the rest due to the possibility of them being mixed up with Marshal, but I think they have the upper hand.
Want: 10% - Eh...I'm in favor of a Rhythm Heaven rep now but I'm not sold on the Chrous Kids.

King K. Rool: 51.04%
Dixie Kong: 39.84%

 

[TumblrFamous]

Gematsu Leak Chance: 94%
I'm not going to deny it's credibility. I think the guy is at least onto something with the newcomers, since they've all been accurate so far bar Rosalina. Not too sure about everything else's accuracy, but I guess we'll see.

Gematsu Leak Want: 50%
I like the newcomers, don't get me wrong. But the speculation is gone. People are just expecting the Gematsu now. Like, what about K. Rool, Dixie, Ridley, Robin, Isaac? Mewtwo! I don't know. I like the newcomers they are adding, I do (not so much Chrom), but I would want more so we can continue to speculate. That's what Smash is about. And I also docked points because I want Lucas back.

Chrom Chance: 90%
He was likely to begin with.

Chrom Want: 50%
Eh. I'd rather have Robin, then Lucina, then Chrom. I just think they could go for something much more unique and exciting. Like, Robin can represent everything from FE that isn't a swordfighter. But I'm sure they'll make Chrom unique and interesting, but he just seems a little....bland.

Shulk Chance: 95%
See Chrom.

Shulk Want: 100%
I'd love Shulk in. I've always supported him. He'd be interesting, exciting to play as, so much amazing music from Xenoblade, and a magnificent stage. I want everything Xenoblade in here.

Chorus Men Chance: 85%
Hinges on whether the leak is real, which I'm fairly certain it is.

Chorus Men Want: 100%
As a singer and performer, having a rhythm based moveset would be so exciting!

 

[Capybara Gaming]

- Pokemon X/Y. He didn't know the pokemon was Greninja ahead of time. Sakurai stated that they know all characters prior to starting the game.

Not starting a debate here, just saying that Sakurai ALSO said they had "a spot reserved for an X/Y character"

 

[Xhampi]

Gematsu leak/Chrom/Chorus Men/Shulk Chance : 99%
I still had some doubts, but Mii fighters erased the last of them, if this was all luck, the leaker should seriously play at the lottery at this point !

Gematsu leak want : 25%
Would have been 0% if it didn't announce possible DLC characters in the future.

Chrom Want : 25%
There is several FE characters that I would rather have instead of Chrom such as the Black Knight, Tiki or Robin for exemple but I can see and understand why he is going to be added over them.

Chorus Men Want : 15%
I don't really see the need to represent Rythm Heaven other than with an AT, a stage and some music but even then I would rather have the Wrestler.
I will maybe be more excited about their addition once I see them in action.
Right now tough, 15% want just for the stage that will be added along their inclusion.

Shulk Want: 50%
I have nothing against him but not nothing for him either, so sure, why not ?

 

[cephalopod17]

Gematsu Leak

Chance: 95%
Everything Sal predicted has come true. Granted Little Mac, Mii Fighters and Pac-Man were announced later, and Rosalina exists but this leak's claims are true. The Sneaky Spirits in Smash Run prove Chorus Men and that proves the leak.

Want: 75%
I want Shulk and I want an Awakening character. I wanted Pac-Man, Palutena and Little Mac. Chorus Men will take awhile to get used to. It isn't what this leak includes, but what it doesn't include. I really want K. Rool, Mewtwo and Ridley and this leak does not include them. There could always be a case like Rosalina's where he did not predict them, but I am giving my hopes up on all three of them. At this point, maybe they will be DLC.

Chrom: Chance 98% / Want 90%

Shulk: Chance 99% / Want 95%

Chorus Men: Chance 85% / Want 60%

Predictions

K. Rool: 45%

Dixie: 40%

 

[Pacack]

Gematsu Leak:

Chance: 80%
It's definitely at least partially true. However, I don't think his information is current, and I'm not sure if he filled in gaps with his information or not. So we'll see.

Want: Abstain​

Shulk:

Chance: 85%
Very likely.

Want: 70%
He'd be cool.​

Chrom:

Chance: 70%
Likely, but it's possible that he only knew "Fire Emblem: Awakening Main Character" or something and assumed Chrom.

Want: 10%
Eh.​

Chorus Men:

Chance: 70%
Likely, but it's possible that it's Marshal.

Want: Abstain​

Predictions:
King K. Rool: 69.98%
Dixie Kong: 44%

(Also, @ Groose , Nintendo Joker is disconfirmed. Can you remove him?)

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Gematsu Leak:

Chance: 80%
It's definitely at least partially true. However, I don't think his information is current, and I'm not sure if he filled in gaps with his information or not. So we'll see.

Want: Abstain​

Shulk:

Chance: 85%
Very likely.

Want: 70%
He'd be cool.​

Chrom:

Chance: 70%
Likely, but it's possible that he only knew "Fire Emblem: Awakening Main Character" or something and assumed Chrom.

Want: 10%
Eh.​

Chorus Men:

Chance: 70%
Likely, but it's possible that it's Marshal.

Want: Abstain​

Predictions:
King K. Rool: 69.98%
Dixie Kong: 44%

(Also, @ Groose , Nintendo Joker is disconfirmed. Can you remove him?)

Proof of disconfirmation?

 

[Spazzy_D]

E3 has actually made me feel Shulk's chances are lowered. By the sound of it, the new Xenoblade is a spiritual sequel - thus implying Shulk isn't in it. So then why would Nintendo want a guy from a single game - and who also isn't pure first party - to be in the game? Logically it doesn't make sense but who knows, Shulk might make a cameo in the new game still. And the voice actor news support this leak from Gematsu as well. I won't believe it until I see it though .

Xenoblade is COMPLETLY first party as Nintendo owns 100% of Monolithsoft. Just pointing that out.

Gematsu Leak
Chance: 85% - Think it's likely and that Sal's leaker had at least some inside info, but I'm not sure it's 100% accurate.
Want: 95% - this is IF there are more characters revealed as well. Shulk is second only to Ridley on my want list at the moment and the only character I really didn't care for (Mii's) from the leak were already revealed.

Chrom
Chance: 95% - The leak helps, but he was one of the most requested characters since before the original E3 reveal.
Want: 60% - I want another Fire Emblem Rep, but Chrom is pretty vanilla.

Shulk
Chance: 80%- has a lot going for him but with out the leak I could very well see him as this games Isaac.
Want: 100% - great moveset potential, unique look, and most importantly - he would come with a Xenoblade stage. That music!

Chorus Men
Chance: 80%- Rhythm series is huge.... also smash run enemies!
Want: 75% - I might end up hating or loving this character, but I love the POTENTIAL they might have at the moment. Also, since the Chorus Men are a it generic, they could reference a lot of the other mini-games in the franchise.

 

[Sabrewulf238]

I like the newcomers, don't get me wrong. But the speculation is gone. People are just expecting the Gematsu now. Like, what about K. Rool, Dixie, Ridley, Robin, Isaac? Mewtwo! I don't know. I like the newcomers they are adding, I do (not so much Chrom), but I would want more so we can continue to speculate. That's what Smash is about. And I also docked points because I want Lucas back.

If you believe the gematsu leak then you also have to believe (or at the very least entertain) that character dlc is a thing.

The situation we find ourselves in is very different to what you described, with character dlc speculation will last far longer than it would have otherwise.

 

[Minato Arisato]

Gematsu Leak:

Chance: 85%
A lot of people here on Smashboards seem to believe its legitimacy, and that extends to myself, but...you know what they say. Take it with a grain of salt. And if it turns out to be fake, I will laugh until my sides hurt.

Want: 75%
I want it to be real, I really do, it's just...I kind of wanted the newcomers to be a surprise, you know? I mean, how awesome would it be if Ridley was confirmed playable and nobody saw it coming?

Shulk:

Chance: 85%
I say he's very much likely at this point. Not a shoo-in, because, well...no one is.

Want: 100%
Is it weird that I really, really want him even though I've never played his game? That says a lot.

Chrom:

Chance: 80%
Once again, very likely. Still, there's always the chance we don't get any new FE newcomer. Or someone completely different.

Want: 100%
I want him, I really do. My most wanted FE newcomer seems like he's pretty inevitable at this point. And if he's not in because Robin made it in, well that's fine, too.

Chorus Men:

Chance: 60%
Um...I don't know about this. I only thing that convinced me is the leak, and that RH enemy in Smash Run, but other than that...

Want: 50%
I'm indifferent. If he makes it in, great! If not, I won't really care. It would also debunk the leak, no?