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[Cpt.]

Ridley: 50%

There's no reason for him not to be playable other than the fact that Sakurai has only seen him as a boss in previous games. With Sakurai's direct disconfirmations so far, I'd say Ridley has a good chance of being playable. Though we have still only seen one boss character, which means that Ridley is an obvious choice for another. It's up to fate now.

Want: 10000%

yeah i made a video on it.

Sceptile: 35%

Sakurai probably would not have looked at this character when thinking about Pokemon reps. His first choice to see would have been Mewtwo. From there weather he decided to add Mewtwo in or not, he would look at gen 6 and from that he got Greninja. Now the question is if he is going to put in one of each starter type. If so, Sceptile is not the only choice, he has a 1-6 chance. Still it is possible that gamefreak tipped him off to the gen 3 remake.

Want: 50%

wouldn't be mad, but I would really like to see him.

 

[TitanTeaTime]

Things started to go downhill right around when Sakurai mentioned how Miis counted as three characters yet had the properties of nine. Oof. I was loving them before that.

Just pointing it out quickly, pretty sure the guys at the Treehouse stream mentioned the Miis still only take up one slot. At least, I think they did. Somebody did, I'm sure.

 

[Sonic Poke]

Ridley Chance: 75%- Too teased to be a Boss, I believe.
Ridley Want: 100%- I like metroid. I lke villains. I like dragons. I like dinosaurs. I like purple.

Sceptile Chance: 75%- Same as before, popular, recent target of marketing, mega evo, part of a series with an expansive cast in smash series, unrepresented pokemon type of the main trio, well, he has every thing that is needed.
Sceptile Want: 100%- I like pokémon. Grass is my favorite type. Starter choice. Loving the mega. Green is a beautiful color.

 

[Xenigma]

Ridley - 50%
So, the Gematsu leak appears to be true, Ridley's not in the leak, therefore all the Ridley skeptics are proven right and he's deconfirmed as a stage obstacle...right?

Well, I'm not sure it's that simple. While E3 seems to confirm Ridley's unfortunate fate, perhaps even to the degree that we could say Ridley was not intended to be on the roster, it also leaves it frustratingly in the air thanks to the complete absence of Pyrosphere and continued failure to acknowledge where everyone's favorite dragon is. At this point, Nintendo has virtually nothing to gain from keeping Ridley's fate a secret, so why stay so silent on a character who is not only one of the top fan requests and who has been teased at numerous times on the official website? The way I see it, there are two distinct, equally likely possibilities. One, everything is as it appears at face value and Ridley's out, simple as that. Two, Nintendo has responded to fan demand and is retooling Ridley to be a secret character or even possibly DLC, which would explain the long teasing campaign and Pyrosphere's conspicuous absence from E3 as the stage itself likely needs some basic alteration. While it's probably easier to say the former is right and leave it at that, my gut leans very strongly towards the latter; based on what we've seen, it just feels like there's more to this story. To that end, Ridley remains a solid 50/50 chance: the deconfirm crowd has a solid platform to stand on, but hope remains strong enough to continue giving him the benefit of the doubt.

Want - 75% - I think the fans deserve to have him, Metroid deserves a non-Samus rep, and that Smash needs another antagonist. That, and I really, really want to believe that Nintendo hasn't really teased Ridley for a year just for him to be a stage obstacle.

Sceptile - 5%
Back when we did the overrated/underrated votes I didn't really think 20% was that high a rating for a character who fit the mold so perfectly, but knowing what we know now, it seems more likely that it fitting the mold is coincidental. Between the Gematsu leak and Sakurai's own comments on Greninja, it appears the ninja frog was chosen after the initial roster had been decided with a placeholder for an X/Y Pokemon, not necessarily a water type. Charizard was probably picked when they decided on no transformations simply because it's the most popular starter Pokemon of all time, barring Pikachu from Yellow of course, and ending up with a gap for a Grass Pokemon was probably just a coincidence once they decided on Greninja specifically. If the gap is a coincidence, than Sceptile probably never even entered the discussion.

Now, there does remain some slim hope. Even if having a Fire and Water starter without a Grass starter was an accident, it bears noting that Sceptile fills that hole exceedingly well, to the degree that it could certainly prove to be a secret character beyond the leak. The same logic could also place it as a DLC character to help promote OR/AS. It doesn't seem a particularly likely scenario, granted, but Sceptile still seems like it could happen, provided Sakurai is as interested in completing the pattern as many fans are.

Want - 50% - I'd much prefer to see Blaziken from Gen 3, or even its earlier form Grovyle, but I can't say I'd have any particular issue with Sceptile being chosen should it actually come to pass.

 

[TitanTeaTime]

Oh right yeah forgot to rate them.
Ridley: 84%. I really think he has a chance, just not that much since he has been sort of teased to maybe be a boss except he's so small he'd be a pretty godawful boss so...
SAKURAAAAAAAAIIII
EDIT: Yeah, I'm increasing my chances. Starting to convince myself that he's pretty likely.
Want: 100%. Heck yeah. Gimme that Ridley. We need more villain representation, as well as giant pirate lizard representation: I mean sure, K Rool also fills that niche, and I want him as much as Ridley, but Ridley is still awesome.
Sceptile: 7%. Would've given him about 2 to 5 percent but with his newly announced mega form it seems a little more likely at least. But his chances still aren't good.
Want: 60%. I wouldn't be sad at him not being there, but he'd be both a representative for the 3rd gen games and the 3rd member of a water/fire/grass starter trifecta. But yeah, I wouldn't miss him if he wasn't in.

 

[chronomantic]

-Ridley
Chance 20% - Sakurai shamelessly teased him with the shadow but I don't think there's a conspiracy to hide him until a more appropriate time if he's really in.
Want 0% - I don't want him, but thinking about it I know that it would make a lot of people within the community happy so there's no sense in denying them that.

-Sceptile
Chance 10% - people argue the lack of a grass type for his inclusion but I don't think this imaginary quota exists for Smash.
Want 0% - I'd rather have Mewtwo.

 

[Chandeelure]

Projected Schedule:​

Day 250: Ridley and Sceptile
Day 251: Gematsu Leak, Shulk, Chrom, and Chorus Men
Day 252: King K. Rool and Dixie Kong
Day 253: Mewtwo and Jigglypuff
Day 254: Isaac and Takamaru
Day 255: Solid Snake and Lucas
Day 256: Robin and Anna​

Questions? Comments? Complaints?

​

What about Bandana Dee and Captain Toad?
They are the team "Servants with huge roles in the announced E3 games (Kirby and the Rainbow Curse and Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker)" . Yeah, that's a huge name XD
.
.
.

-Ridley:
Chances: 50%
Want: 40%

-Sceptile:
Chances: 10%
Want: 40%

 

[Deleted member]

Ridley and Sceptile have been added to the Directory.
If you have rated Ridley and Sceptile, check to see what you've said on their days!

Ridley
Chance: 5%
I'm still thinking that he's a stage hazard.
Want: 30%
Ehh...

Sceptile
Chance: 5%
Same score as before.
I'm honestly mystified that Sceptile and Ivysaur got higher scores than Blaziken and Squirtle respectively. Do we need to rate them at a higher chance for being a grass type? To "complete the trio?" Sceptile and Ivysaur also weren't blessed with promotion like Blaziken and Squirtle did.
I'm pretty sure that Sakurai doesn't agree or even think about something like this...
The best example that I can think in my head is Fire Emblem. There are three main weapon classes: swords, spears/lances, and axes. Who do we have in Smash? Marth, Ike, and almost assuredly Chrom... and they are all swordsmen. If Sakurai intended to complete the trio, he would have added Hector and Ephraim instead of Ike and possibly Chrom. Heck, why not throw in a magic user like Micaiah or Tharja to represent that part of the series?
The point is, being a grass type and having remakes confirmed doesn't automatically make you one of the most likely characters to appear in Smash.
Want: 30%
I never used a Sceptile, so I can't say that I exactly want it in Smash.

The Gematsu Leak Prediction: 81.35%
There are many believers and a few skeptics out there...
Shulk Prediction: 93.92%
Call me crazy, but Shulk is probably going to spike up thanks to the leak and the fact that Xenoblade Chronicles is now an officially established series. Oh, and that giant post for Shulk won't be posted tomorrow. Every single character on here will be rated under one chance score.
Chrom Prediction: 89.08%
Robin's chances are already dead... hehehe. Oh! Umm... I mean the scales have been tipped in Chrom's favor thanks to the Gematsu leak! Though, he will definitely get lower scores than Shulk because he still has competition, unlike Shulk who has little to none.
Chorus Men Prediction: 64.47%
The ghosts will help them, but these are by far the most iffy part of the Gematsu leak to some people. As such, I expect them to get the worst out of the three.

EDIT: I suggest that we also change Robin and Anna to Robin, Lucina, and Chrom & Lucina. Anna is a bit too insignificant in my eyes to really be worth re-evaluating.

 

[a Link to the Forums]

Ridley: 55%

Same as my last prediction. I do not think E3 affected his chances at all. Next please.

Want: 75%
Again, same as my last score.


Sceptile: 30%
Okay, some might call him overrated but I do believe he still has his chances. Mega Sceptile is obviously a boost for him. Other than that, there is one reason in particular as to why I believe he now has a pretty decent shot. During the roundtable, Sakurai revealed that the roster was decided from the beginning and Greninja was decided to make it during his beta stage. Now Mega Sceptile obviously had to be in development as well (whether he was in his beta is unknown) because of Mega Blaziken so maybe Sakurai had seen him by then. I certainly wouldn't be surprised if that was the case. I still am sceptic (see what I did there)whether he'll make it in, the 'trinity' makes sense because it was the pokemon trainer's main theme but it doesn't make much of a strong case outside of that and you can only put so many pokemon on the roster but despite this, I'm not ruling him out.

Want: 100%
Before Mega Sceptile was announced I would have been ecstatic if he was included but now that it is, hot damn, I want him so bad.

 

[Deleted member]

Ridley:
Chance: 50% - I think it could go either way.
Want: 50% - I'm one of the few who has no strong preference. If he's in, great! If he's not, I won't lose any sleep.

Sceptile:
Chance: 15% - I think people are seriously overestimating the Gen 3 remakes. I don't think Sakurai cares about the type triangle, and Greninja has no Mega Mewtwo/Jigglypuff seem much more likely.
Want: 10% - Eh? I don't get the appeal, and would rather have Mewtwo/Jigglypuff. From what I can tell, Sceptile slashes people with leaves. Doesn't Greninja already do that? But with water swords? Yeah, I would much rather have Ivysaur return if we had to have a grass type, but I don't think the OCD type triangle is enough to warrant either Sceptile or Ivysaur. Sorry, I just don't understand the appeal of this character. His cult fanbase isn't as obnoxious or in your face as Waddle Dee's though. At least they don't think Sceptile is more likely than Lucas.

 

[Toxicroaker]

Ridley: 10% The roster isn't looking good. We just got the Miis which have additional special moves and take up three spots. Then we also have Palutena, who is also getting special treatment. Then we have all of the gematsu characters. And the only counterweight is the fact that Lucas was said to be cut by the gematsu guy. That doesn't leave much room for more characters, and even if it did, Ridley is most likely a boss.
Want: 100% I would die of happiness if he was in.

Sceptile: 3% No. Just no.
Want: 0% See above.

Gematsu Leak: 79.52%
Chrom: 79.31%%
Shulk: 81.2%
Chorus Men: 68.21%

 

[Pacack]

I'm going to be much more liberal on my want ratings now since Pac-Man's confirmed.

Ridley: 63%
Not seeing him at E3 or the demos is very interesting. Definitely a boost to his chances.

Want: 90%
Yes. Definitely. Not only does he deserve it, but he's a purple pirate space dragon and a really cool villain to boot.


Sceptile:

Chance: 3%
Not at all likely, but I suppose possible.

Want: 30%
Nah.

Predictions:

Gematsu Leak - 88.75%
Shulk - 85%
Chrom - 77.5%
Chorus Men - 62.33%

 

[TP8bitPyro]

Ridely chance 88%
they just love to tease the crap out of him he has to be something more than a stage hazard
Want 50%
Don't care if he's in I don't know much about Metroid so meh don't care

Septile chance 65%
he may be coming in to the roster because of the whole grass fire water thing, but I still see that the roster will be fine with out him
Want 75%
I do like to see him just because of the whole rock paper scissors concept and would fill the pokemon trainer void. but part of me is saying it would be fine if hes not.

 

[colder_than_ice]

Ridley
Chance: 18% - This is more than double what I gave him last time, but I'm still not impressed by the supposed "evidence" that he's playable.
Want: 74% - He has my support regardless.

Sceptile
Chance: 6% - Best case scenario, Sakurai had a placeholder spot for all three starter types, but I doubt it.
Want: 27% - Not my most wanted pokemon.

Predictions
Gematsu leak: 50%
Shulk: 87%
Chrom: 74%
Chorus Kids: 42%

 

[andimidna]

Ridley:
Chance: 50%
I refuse to take a side anymore. I'm torn. I was so sure he'd be at E3...
And then, well, he wasn't. Not even "bossley"
I'm going to start setting myself up for disappointment so I don't end up too hurt. I... I... I'm sick of Ridley debates.
There's so much evidence on both sides. Ugh... why would you not put him in Sakurai? Why? Just do it already!
No, of course I have to pick a side. And I choose playable. The evidence still adds up more in favor of Ridley than out of his favor. He just makes logical sense given what we know.
Chance: 57%
-Shadow--> model size
This is the biggest piece of evidence. His size is closer to Rosalina's than Mother Brain's apparently.
And teasing for nothing in the end, and not having it in the demo...
If Pyrosphere was playable and he wasn't there, people would be calling him confirmed.
If he's a stage boss, Sakurai clearly hasn't been too worried to talk about it and basically reveal it before, so there'd be no reason to hide the stage. Well, I guess there weren't that many stages in the demo... but I still like my score.
Want: 95%
I ridley want him in.
He ridley deserves it, his fanbase is too big to ignore.

Sceptile:
Chance: 27%
I was too hyped to give him a fair rating last time, and I eventually decided he only had a 22% chance (after rating him at around 35%)
However, new info has come into his favor.
Obviously, the mega evolution. I raised what I thought his chances were by 2% after finding that out.
However... a comment made by Sakurai about Greninja made a larger increase.
1. Sakurai said that they reserved a spot for an X and Y Pokemon ahead of time
-sure, this could happen with Hoenn, but it's the next part that got me interested
2. Sakurai said that they didn't actually wait until X and Y came out to see who became the most popular, they guessed far ahead of time based of design/concept art...
-Wow, this must have been a pretty hard task to accomplish. Now why does this apply to Sceptile?
I've stated before that any smart developer could have easily guessed a large increase in Sceptile's popularity after the events that occurred
-dual reveal of water and fire starter
-is the most popular grass starter
-hoenn confirmed
-mega evolution confirmed
If somebody asked you "Which Pokemon will become very popular after all 3 of these things happen?"
The answer would be obvious-- Sceptile.
If the Smash team could guess who the popular gen 6 pokemon was going to be based off of his design, do you seriously doubt that they couldn't have seen this coming?
Now, I will not give a 50+ score, despite me being sure they could have seen this coming.
Because it is not definite that Game Freak asked Sakurai to add a Pokemon to promote/advertise Hoenn. Because it is so new, I'm going to stay on the less likely side, by a good amount, however, I have no doubts that Sakurai knew about the game before it was revealed, and Pokemon reps work a bit differently than other series. Still, doubting it. However, some people should be considering it more than they are.
Edit: Okay, I'll add what I wanted to add before.
Let's see...
I think the first thing I had said was about how DLC is starting to become likely. And what would you find more likely, veteran DLC or newcomer DLC? Easily veteran DLC, correct? Well with Jigglypuff being low priority, insignificant, but a staple of the series, I think she's easily the #1 candidate for DLC that's not a clone.
Seems like a perfect fit, and honestly, I can see this happening to Squirtle and Ivysaur too. Greninja isn't all that similar to Squirtle, people still like these 2. Makes sense too me, same with Snake. He's still popular, Kojima basically said he wanted him back in, but it was pretty late in development, so DLC could be an easy way to add Snake. I could even see Falco and Lucas being excluded from the main roster just so it stays smaller and has more variety, this would take off some pressure of the developers and would lead to a game that is not rushed. If beloved veterans such as Falco and Lucas were to be part of the DLC line-up, surely it would be more desired to buy (if it costed anything). And finally, I think this is a perfect way to bring back all 5 veterans cut from Melee to Brawl. Yes, even Pichu and Young Link. I could easily see the main Pokemon roster be Pikachu, Lucario, Charizard, Sceptile, and Greninja-- and half of the DLC options would be the Pokemon of the past. Maybe DLC newcomers could happen, if there are major characters that aren't assist trophies or stage bosses... but I have no idea how likely that is. I don't think it's really all that likely atm...
Well, this way, Sceptile would not be in any sort of competition with those characters, but wait... he still has competition (nailed the transition again)
Blaziken. In the 2nd part of my old edit I talked about Blaziken.
So now that Genesect is done, these are really the only 2 viable Pokemon newcomers left (diancie pls)
And I do think he's up there, pretty close to Sceptile's likelihood. However, not close enough to get on my list of who I think are the top 10 most likely characters (I rank him at #13). I already mentioned in my original post how easy it would have been to assume or guess Sceptile's spike in popularity. And this spike in popularity has Blaziken fading away from significance. What I mean is, in these remakes, there's nothing they can do with Blaziken anymore, they already gave him a mega evolution in X and Y. Sceptile's is new and he's only gaining significance and popularity. As the forest master rises, the flaming chicken falls . At this point, and this could easiy not be true, but Sceptile might have surpassed his popularity, but if he hasn't, I think he will eventually. Especially if he got announced for Smash Bros, that would ensure a constant popularity for Sceptile for years (but he'd need to be popular before that happens, so that doesn't help his or anybody's chances at all). I've not only been seeing Sceptile pop up all of the time in Smash speculation here, but in the posts I've made about a Pokemon newcomer on Miiverse, it appears Sceptile has become the most popular pick. Now they're mostly kids are probably supporting him for all of the wrong reasons, but it still proves he doesn't just have a cult fanbase here on SmashBoards like Bandana Dee. I see him also not just popping up in Youtube videos about Smash speculation, but now it appears his gaining more popularity throughout the Pokemon community, and is getting far more noticed than he has ever been before. I'm seeing most people saying he was their starter choice now, or that he will be possibly because they want to try a new mega (and Mega Swampert has the body of a quadruped Wario with 10x the upper body strength... bleh).
Also, I still have yet to see a roster with Blaziken. And I think he took a significant hit at E3 because Pokken fighters, a game that appeared to use Fighting Pokemon such as Lucario and Blaziken, wasn't revealed and may never happen. But if it doesn't get revealed before October, it probably won't get content. Sure, Sakurai may already know it exists, but we don't so I have a hard time considering it as helping Blaziken's chances. I really thought it would be revealed at E3.

So there you go. It's not just "muh grass type 100%"
There's a lot more to it. And I think I hit all of the points in this post. And considering everything, 27% just sounds right to me.

Want: 99.5%
He's surprisingly become one of my most wanted. In fact, I might even call him my #4 most wanted, after my top major 3. Wait... Palutena was confirmed, that's a top 2 now!
Anyways, 7 Pokemon would be ****ing awesome!

Predictions:
Gematsu Leak: 85%
Chrom: 90%
Shulk: 90%
Chorus Men: 75%

Nominations:
x0 Inkling

I suggest that we also change Robin and Anna to Robin, Lucina, and Chrom & Lucina. Anna is a bit too insignificant in my eyes to really be worth re-evaluating.

Yea, I thought her score was a bit too low last time, but now I agree with it.
I definitely wouldn't mind skipping an Anna re-rate seeing as we just had one, and most people don't think 4 FE characters are happening, so people usually rank the 3rd character as Chrom or Robin, meaning Chrom's boost would mean Robin's decrease, and Anna would probably stay the same. Chrom and Anna's scores aren't as related as his are to Robin and Lucina. I don't think Lucina's score will change much, but they're basically representing the same thing, so they definitely affect each other.
I agree with your conclusion, I just don't like how you call her insignificant
I agree Chrom and Lucina team is worth the re-rate too now that we have gotten more newcomers that were expected to be boring and generic yet were implemented interestingly- and now that we are considering what may be a trio character, I think less people will give 0s.
Although, any of these could just be nominated regularly if Groose doesn't want them to be a part of the non-Chrom Fire Emblem day.

What about Bandana Dee and Captain Toad?
They are the team "Servants with huge roles in the announced E3 games (Kirby and the Rainbow Curse and Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker)" . Yeah, that's a huge name XD

Bandana Dee is in Rainbow Curse? Is that confirmed?
(sorry if it was very obvious in the trailer, I was too hyped to pay attention)

 

[Nu~]

Ridley: 45%
I don't think his chances have changed

Want: 50%
Never played any Metroid game so indifferent toward the character itself, but a dragon seems fun to play as


Sceptile:

Chance: 3%
Not likely.

Want: 30%
Nope. Blaziken is cooler



Gematsu Leak - 93%
Shulk - 80%
Chrom - 80%
Chorus Men - 70%

Ridley:
I ridley want him in.
He ridley deserves it, his fanbase is too big to ignore.

I LOL'd

 

[Leafeon523]

Ridley: Abstain
My scores for this literally change every day.
Sceptile:
Chance: 2%
Yeah... Not gonna happen. I really see no need to promote X/Y and ORAS in one game. And throw your type theories out the window.
Want: 60%
Mega evolution! Woohoo!

Predictions:
Gematsu: 78%
Shulk: 86%
Chrom: 91%
Chorus men: 59%

I also feel that Dark Pit deserves a re-rate. He's one of the few characters that benefited from e3, and we haven't rated him recently (unlike Captain Toad) and he doesn't have a lot of nominations. (Unlike Bandana flame war)
I also support dropping the Anna re-rate in favor of Chromcina and Lucina.

 

[Hippopotasauce]

Ridley Likelihood: 35%
Want: 70%

Sceptile Likelihood: 3%
Want: 50%

Gematsu leak: 68.25%
Shulk: 85.63%
Chrom: 79.54%
Chorus Kids: 54.35%

 

[Kalimdori]

Before continuing, I don't think the Gematsu leaks affect these, or any other possible newcomers in the terms of chance. says hello.

Ridley:
Chance: 95%
Lowered from 100 because I insulted myself for it yesterday XD

Let me tell you a story. Last year, we were shown the Pyrosphere, and hinted that Ridley would appear in some form. He was not mentioned by name, and was not specified what he would be. Later, we were shown a picture of Palutena's Temple, with Sakurai showing her statue and saying she would be watching over the battlefield.

Fast forward to the Direct. Ridley teased in the Yellow Devil section. Ridley confirmed to be a boss, right? Well, Palutena was teased in the Trophy section. Palutena confirmed to be a statue?

There is no, I repeat, NO logical reason that Ridley has been hidden for so long. Hyping up a boss hazard? You mean a gimick of an already existing mechanic in the Smash Bros franchise? Let's hype up Mewtwo for being a Master Ball Pokemon, he's a popular choice, he'd advertise the Master Ball perfectly, people will love this!

If the Ridley shadow we were shown in the Direct is a boss, then it is poorly designed and does not do Ridley justice. It has been proven that he's been shrunk down severely from Brawl, his animations are choppy, his actions are downright boring. And if Ridley is a boss, then that's a downright demotion. The stage bosses are nothing more then overglorified stage hazards, I saw a video of Bowser killing the Yellow Devil in 3 hits. That's pathetic, and that's not what one of the most wanted newcomers for Smash deserves, and I'm positive it's not what he will get.

Want: 100%
I've wanted him in since Melee, he is easily my favorite Nintendo villain, hands down. But more then that, I DESPISE being ridiculed for wanting a character in a video game and the IDIOTIC arguments they use against him. I want to shut those people up so much, and I do not want to give them the satisfaction of rubbing this in my face for another 8 or so years waiting for the next Smash.

Sceptile:
Chance: 15%
I think this is the same as I put last time, and I stand by what I said. He's the third most likely Pokemon representative. He was obviously getting a Mega Evolution (Now confirmed) and he would represent the remakes (Which were obviously coming). Problem is, there are two more Pokemon in front of him. I guarantee you Mewtwo is in the game, and Jigglypuff will probably come back. So Sceptile's inclusion relies on either getting 7 Pokemon (1 more then Brawl, not impossible), or Jigglypuff being cut for him.

And I don't think people understand the typing argument. It is not the fact that Sceptile completes a typing triangle, it's that he completes the starter triangle. Let me ask you, what is the first thing that any of you remember from playing Pokemon? You get your first Pokemon, a Pokemon which will probably mean quite a lot to that person. This is a choice that every single person who has ever played Pokemon has made, and as such, the starter trio is one of the most iconic things of the Pokemon universe. Blaziken in Smash Bros? Please, he's the Pokemon version of Captain Falcon, and the fire starter is already represented. If we get 7 Pokemon, or Jigglypuff is cut, we will get Sceptile. If not, he's a prime candidate for DLC.

Want: 100%

You know how I was talking about how important and iconic the starter trio is, and how important that first Pokemon can be? Emerald was my first Pokemon game. Take a wild guess what starter I chose.

Sceptile will always hold a special place in my heart, he was my first Pokemon, and will always be one of my favorite Pokemon of all time.

Predictions!

Gematsu Leak: 80%
We got 3 more characters confirmed on the list. But they were the obvious choices that everybody was predicting. The only thing that really effects this leaks chances are the Rhythm Heaven enemies in Smash Run, which I'm sure people will jump on.

Shulk: 85%
We now know that Xenoblade Chronicles is becoming a series, not just a stand alone game. While Shulk probably won't be involved, hes the perfect choice for representing the Xeno series.

Chrom: 75%
Bit more iffy on this. I don't think Sakurai would pull another Star Fox but with Fire Emblem characters. I think Robin or Lucina would be better choices, but Chrom is the most likely, and based on what I've seen the majority of people agree.

Chorus Kids: 60%
I don't think the Chorus Kids are in the game. I think Marshal might, as this leaker hasn't always been specific when it comes to characters, and its perfectly possible he pulled another Greninja/Villager and incorrectly labeled the character he was seeing. Regardless, this will definitely be the character that people are the most iffy about.

 

[Morbi]

Ridley's Chance: 99.9%

I am obviously quite certain of his chance; he is one of the more logical additions. This has become increasingly apparent ever since the Nintendo Direct, the only evidence against him entails an ambiguous allusion that never directly references the subject of the message. Sakurai is clearly aware of the controversy surrounding his chances, yet he has not clarified the matter despite already "confirming the inevitable" so that is yet another overt indication that he is playable. Not only is the initial reveal counter-intuitive to his perceived purpose, but this is as well. The nail on the coffin was E3; no Pyrosphere is undeniably suspicious. No doubt about that. Suggesting otherwise would insinuate that Sakurai is quite the incompetent developer as he has not managed to finish something that is more or less simple like a boss hazard. That is without spouting his credentials.

Ridley Want: 100%

Again; I did not necessarily ever want Ridley, per se. But we are getting him and I had better get used to it and enjoy it.

Sceptile's Chance: 1%

... Mewtwo.

Sceptile Want: 33%

The concept is interesting and I am a fan of that sentiment.

 

[Glaciacott]

Nintendo E3 Satisfaction
82.97%
Overall, we think Nintendo did a really good job, but failed to knock the ball out of the park. Thus ends our celebration of E3; it was a good one.
​

Today we're going to rate our Most Underrated and our Most Overrated. Our Most Underrated is none other than Ridley; his chances are bigger than what we gave him before. Our Most Overrated is Sceptile, because it was all Hoenn Confirmed. So, without further ado rate both Ridley and Sceptile in chance and want. Nominations are currently suspended, but predictions aren't... and you'll have a lot to predict today. Tomorrow is going to be the biggest day we will ever have. We'll be rating the Gematsu Leak, Shulk, Chrom, and the Chorus Men all in one fell swoop! Please predict how well they'll do. At the bottom of the post, I'll attach our schedule for the upcoming week; be sure to peruse it and make suggestions!

Before I get to that, however, I have to thank you all for making it with me to Day 250. It's now been exactly a year since we started this game, and we've managed to update more than two-thirds of the time. To be honest, there were a number of incidents back in the fall and early winter where I came just a hair away from announcing my resignation from this game, but we're still going! I have to give a major shoutout to all of those that have helped me by taking over sections of the game; you have no idea how much you've reduced my stress level. Also, a special thanks to all of the regular customers here; your entertaining posts kept me going in the darkest of times. With all of us combined, I'm sure we'll push for it and make it all of the way until launch!
Projected Schedule:
Day 250: Ridley and Sceptile
Day 251: Gematsu Leak, Shulk, Chrom, and Chorus Men
Day 252: King K. Rool and Dixie Kong
Day 253: Mewtwo and Jigglypuff
Day 254: Isaac and Takamaru
Day 255: Solid Snake and Lucas
Day 256: Robin and Anna​

Questions? Comments? Complaints?

​

Before I rate, I want to mention there's a couple characters I would argue merit a re-rate much earlier than characters that you mention.

Captain Toad, for example, comes to mind. Then there's the whole Dark Pit thing since a lot of people apparently want to see it as a hint at inclusion.

And yay one year!

 

[Starbound]

Ridley: 5% Chance / 0% Want

Sceptile: 2% Chance / 1% Want

 

[Erimir]

Ridley

I feel like people who are skeptical of Ridley mostly didn't get anything to help or hurt their case.

People who think Ridley has a good chance got some ammo. Pyrosphere didn't show up in the demo. It was one of the earliest stages to be revealed. Why wouldn't it be there? If Ridley was a stage hazard, then it certainly wouldn't be because the stage was too boring... they had plenty of stage hazards going on. It wasn't because they didn't want to reveal info about stages, we learned new things about most of the stages we saw (especially the NSMB stages).

If Ridley's not a stage hazard, well... maybe it was too plain then. But that's evidence FOR Ridley then.

So why wouldn't Pyrosphere show up? It suggests they're holding out on us. They went through the trouble to reskin the Punch-Out stage to keep us unsure of Little Mac! Holding back a stage to keep us guessing about Ridley is not a stretch by any means! It requires a lot less work than reskinning a stage, or editing it for presentation.

So the question is... why? Is it because they're holding back a stage hazard to "hype us up"? That's doubtful. As I see it the possibilities are:

1. Pyrosphere was left out for no particular reason. Ridley could be a stage hazard or playable in this scenario.

• But we saw most of the new stages. Some of the ones left out haven't had an official reveal yet (Kalos Pokemon League) or would not be suitable for the demo (Palutena's Temple is too big for short matches) or would be redundant (Coliseum and Wii Fit Studio seem pretty similar). Those don't really apply to Pyrosphere, especially not if Ridley is a stage hazard. This is still possible, but I doubt that the stages were chosen at random, and only a handful stages were left out that would've made sense to show.

2. Pyrosphere was left out because Ridley is a stage hazard and it wasn't ready to show.

• But they've had PLENTY of time to get this stage ready. They're not in the initial design phases, and basically everything but Ridley would've been finished 10 months ago! It would be weird for this to be the reason.

3. Pyrosphere was left out to generate hype and Ridley is a stage hazard or Assist Trophy.

• This is possible. In Sakurai's twisted mind, this could be something the fans would be pleased by. But I think even he realizes this would be a huge letdown, not a hype builder.

4. Pyrosphere was left out to generate hype, and Ridley is a playable character.

• Well... this would've been the right way to go about that. I personally think he would've generated more hype than Palutena... in the US anyway. Ridley has been anticipated for much longer. But internationally, Palutena might've been a better choice. If you decide not to show Ridley at E3 as playable, then not showing the Pyrosphere becomes the obvious right move.

All in all, I think E3 adds up to a boost in chances for Ridley. It could still go either way, but I'm working my way back to expecting him. He's not in the Gematsu leak, but I think there's room for as many as 5 additional newcomers (depending on how much work the Mii Fighters were + how many cuts there are). More likely to be at the lower end. But I think at least 1 or 2 extra is likely.

Ridley chances: 54%

Ridley want: 99%

Sceptile

The grass starter thing is the main thing he has going for him. A 7th Pokemon rep is possible, but unlikely. Which means he has to take Jigglypuff's spot, or beat Mewtwo for the 6th spot. Neither one is easy to beat. The Hoenn and Mega Evolution just cements the fact that he's among the most likely Pokemon to appear... other than the two veterans. But beating those two was always the problem, and it's not really enough to make much of a difference.

Sceptile chances: 5.5%
Better than most Pokemon that aren't veterans. But not very likely.

Sceptile want: 45%
Mostly indifferent. I want Jigglypuff to return, but Mewtwo I am not that attached to. But I'd still prefer Mewtwo probably.

Predictions:
Gematsu leak - 83%
We were evenly divided before E3. Now the evidence is pretty strong that it really is insider info. Still going to be some disbelievers.
Shulk - 90%
Gonna be one of the top, because Gematsu + high want + people thinking he had decent chances anyway
Chrom - 85%
Gematsu will boost him, but the Robin, Anna, Roy and Lucina supporters aren't going to totally give up on their characters.
Chorus Men - 65%
If any character is going to disprove the Gematsu leak, it's this one. And the score will reflect that.

Not that confident in my predictions, honestly.

 

[TheZombiePig]

Sceptile: 2%
Lower than last time. Yeah, he got a mega. And yeah, the water-fire-grass trinity makes sense, but there's too much working against sceptile. The first being that OR/AS releases after Smash 3DS. So while they have used a character for promotional use (Roy), I feel that if they were to do that again, it'd be with an Inkling, or one of the characters from Code Name: S.T.E.A.M, but I find that very unlikely as well. Second, we've got Jigglypuff and Mewtwo, I can't imagine Sceptile would get in over one of them, and I don't see Pokemon going passed 6 characters. Lastly, Greninja wasn't chosen to be the water type to Charizard's fire type. He was chose. Very early on in development of not only Smash 4, but Pokemon X and Y as well. He was chosen to represent a new gen. If anything, I feel OR/AS would've likely been in very early planning phases at the time. The idea of Smash DLC bumps his chances, but that's a discussion for another day.
Want: 60%
He's super cool, but I'd like to see Mewtwo make a comeback first.

Ridley: 68%
I bumped his chances up by a whole 50% from last time we rated him. After people have gone through the footage and analyzed the shadow, his size appears to be more appropriate for that of a large character. I'd imagine Ridley as a boss would be larger than the Mother Brain assist. That being said, it's still possible he could be just a boss. But I'm really feeling playable now.
Want: 98%
No personal connection to the Metroid series, but he's a cool character. Ridley is a villain, and those are great to have on the roster, and unlike Dedede or Bowser, Ridley is pure evil. No good in him whatsoever. I also want to be able to rub it in some people's faces.

 

[PK_Wonder]

Ridley - 90%
I am in the minority of those that think the Direct boosted his chances it seems. I'll post what I did on another site:

Yes, that shadow belongs to Ridley. But it doesn't matter that it belongs to Ridley, because Ridley has multiple incarnations, the most popular of which wasn't even in Other M, and by association the Pyrosphere. Sakurai is intentionally avoiding showing or name-dropping Ridley for a reason. I'm saying Ridley can be both a stage hazard AND playable, just as there is Link and Toon Link and even a Conductor Link (who is NOT the same incarnation as the playable Toon LInk) that appears on a stage. The Ridley from Super Metroid (who MOST assume would be his playable form) is not the same character as the Ridley from Other M, the game that Pyrosphere is from. He is doing the same intense trolling with Palutena, and it is 99.99% guaranteed she is playable at this point. Two of the most highly requested characters in the world, Palutena and Ridley, were in similar situations; both in Brawl but not playable. Ridley's role in Brawl was obviously much farther estranged from being playable, hence the higher level of tension and doubt Sakurai is delivering his hints and references with. There is no reason he wouldn't blatantly show Ridley if he is just a stage hazard.

"When Ridley is playable, a completely different-to-begin-with incarnation of him, Other M Ridley terrorizes the Pyrosphere. In fact, Other M Ridley always appears because there is no paradoxical conflict between the two that isn't already represented in Link/Toon Link, Zelda/Sheik, or Samus/ZSS."

My original feelings still apply to Ridley.
Chances: 90%
Want: 100%

and then Sceptile?
I think his bandwagon has died down.
Chances - 4.5% Jigglypuff and Mewtwo are too much competition, sorry buddy.
Want - 80% - That Final Smash is badass, and we all know it.

 

[Kalimdori]

Question: When we say Gematsu leak, are we including the one that was released before E3, or just the Shulk-ChorusKids-Chrom one?

 

[UnicornDemon]

Ridley
Chance: 15%
There's a small chance Sakurai has been teasing us to hype up a big announcement. I don't think this is likely though since, from what I understand, Ridley isn't very popular in Japan. All this supposed teasing would have to be directed specifically towards the Western audience.
Want: 100%
Reptile fetish. Don't judge me.

Sceptile
Chance: 10%, If Gamefreak wanted to promote Sceptile his mega-evolution would have gotten a better ability than Lightning-Rod :/ Still, 7 Pokemon is possible and he's definitely a front-runner if it happens.
Want: 100%
Sceptile and Greninja both in Smash... I would sacrifice my first born son to make this happen.

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Ridley: 90%
That's a 5 percent drop. I still think he's in, but it is odd he was not revealed at E3.

Want: 99%
I'm getting sick of all that dragging out and am starting to loose interest in this game. I want him, but honestly by the time he is released I'll probably be over it and no longer have any hype left to give him. It's a good thing Splatoon exists for me to be excited about!


Sceptile: 45%
He's the clear front runner for another Pokémon Newcomer, and with him now having his own Mega he's cut into Blaziken's chance a bit, but also with each reveal the chance of a Pokémon newcomer has drooped slightly to 55%.

Want: 75%
Not the biggest fan, but it'd be cool to have him in, and it would suck to not have any Grass types!



Gematsu leak: 78.9%
People are far too forgiving of his clear mistakes. I'm not denying that it now looks clear he had inside information at some stage, but missing characters like Rosalina and not knowing about Greninja when that was decided early on is a coffin box for it being up-to-date in my opinion. If I were to make a theory the original leak is stuff they locked down early on, and after he got that right he rode the internet fame and made the second list off things they were discussing in the office when he was moved/quite/stopped being involved in the game. ie. the second 'leak' is guesswork off inconclusive inside information... and therefore not valid evidence.

Shulk: 91.1%
People who don't believe the leak think Shulk's likely.

Chrom: 87.7%
Second leak, all we can say is an FE:A character was in discussion and Chrom's the clear frontrunner... people put more in the leak than it's worth though.

Chorus Men: 66.6%
That number is on purpose. We know Rhythm Heaven was discussed, and the sensible among us knew that before the Gematsu leak (though 'hardcore' franchise bias was a big deal early in this game)... If we take that into consideration Marshal is the clear front runner, but this is Sakurai's game... The leak will divide this one way too much for me to even call it.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Projected Schedule:
Day 250: Ridley and Sceptile
Day 251: Gematsu Leak, Shulk, Chrom, and Chorus Men
Day 252: King K. Rool and Dixie Kong
Day 253: Mewtwo and Jigglypuff
Day 254: Isaac and Takamaru
Day 255: Solid Snake and Lucas
Day 256: Robin and Anna​

Questions? Comments? Complaints?

​

Day 257: Dark Pit and Impa?
Day 258: Bandana Waddle Dee and Captain Toad?

Due to the Smash tease for Dark Pit, Impa's reveal as a playable in Hyrule Warriors, Bandana Waddle Dee getting an increased role in the new Kirby game and Captain Toad getting his own game, these are some of the only characters not currently deconfirmed that arguably benefitted from E3 outside Sceptile.

Ridley
Chance: 85% (previously 99.9%)
Slightly less confident this time, but I still believe that Ridley 'boss reveal' to be too odd to not mean something more. Even after seeing it a few times I feel he looks player controlled, although obviously I'm going by the shadow here. I was however expecting something to be mentioned at E3, but I guess we're waiting til Japan get the game at the very least now.

Should he not get in the main game as playable I doubt DLC will aid him. With him being confirmed to be in the game, he's either definitely playable or definitely not.

Want: 55%
Not the biggest Ridley fan, but he's deserving enough. Put him in already and make the rest of Smashboards happy.

Sceptile
Chance: 22% (DLC Chance: 55%) (Previously 33% but was due to hype)
After any missing Smash vets(outside Pokemon Trainer, Pichu, Doc, Young Link and arguably Solid Snake), I feel like Sceptile is now one of the most likely characters to occur should DLC characters be a thing.
With his new mega form complete with harpoon missile tail and an obvious starring role in the upcoming Hoenn remakes, Sceptile seems like an obvious choice now for a new Pokemon rep.

However Mewtwo and Jigglypuff stand between him and victory, one the most requested Smash 4 character in the world and the other an "original 12" member who has been there since day 1. 7 Pokemon isn't impossible, but 6 is a far more reasonable number...especially when considering the importance of carrying six Pokemon in the games themselves.

Want: 90%
I'd sacrifice one of the two Pokemon vets for Sceptile easily, having never been a big fan of Jigglypuff and concerns Mewtwo will be as terrible as he was in Melee. Helps Sceptile is one of my favourite grass types of all time.

Predictions:

Gematsu leak: 80%
Rhythm Heaven enemies in Smash Run. The only thing that's changed. Mii was always a highly possible candidate and Pac-Man and Palutena were the closest things to shoo-ins based on who was making the games. Still, their inclusion has made people believe it to be 100% legit.

Shulk: 87%
Shulk's always been a popular choice. Gematsu leak may help his chances go even higher.

Chrom: 85%
Again, Chrom's always been a high ranker due to Awakening's importance. RIP interesting FE roster.

Chorus Kids: 72% (somehow lower than the Gematsu leak)
Rhythm Heaven enemies.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Ridley:

Chance: 25% - In reality I guess it's a 50/50, it really can go either way at this point, but since there's no mention of him in the Gematsu leak he has to rely on pulling a Rosalina, and that makes him quite a bit more unlikely if you ask me.

Want: 100% - Obviously.

Sceptile:

Chance: 10% - I still consider him to be behind Mewtwo, but ahead of Ivysaur and Squirtle. I don't think we're going to see 7 Pokémon on release though, we're lucky if we even get 6 imo, so his chances are rather low if you ask me. He's a prime choice for DLC though, but I'm not including that in my rating.

Want: 95% - He's in my top 10 Pokémon of all-time, he's my 3rd gen starter of choice, and he has crazy good fighter potential too, yes please.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Ridley
99.99% chance
100% want
Sceptile
89.99% chance
100% want

 

[xLemmy_KoopaX]

Ridley:
Chance: 5%. And I'm generous here. His fate would be sealed if Sakurai hadn't said that nothing is final. And I think he still stays a boss.
Want: 50%. I want him for the others, not for myself. I'd like more villains in Smash though, but there are better options for that IMO.

Sceptile:
Chance: 1/3. It's up in the air, but more leaning towards "nope".
Want: 1/3. One part of me says he would be nothing special, really, one part says Fire/Water/Grass core. Mystery Dungeon bias here, Reptain is cooler. Oh, and I don't want too much Pokémon characters like it was the case in Brawl. At least in comparision to other franchises.

 

[Leafeon523]

Ridley
99.99% chance
100% want
Sceptile
89.99% chance
100% want

Why did you give Sceptile a 90% chance? I'm not trying to criticize you, I'm just curious as to your reasoning.

 

[The King of Skulls]

Oh boy, Ridley and Sceptile!

Ridley:
Chance: 73.8%

E3 changed a grand total of nothing for Ridley's odds. I mean, yeah, it's a bit annoying that Ridley wasn't shown or mentioned at all, but regardless, his chance is pretty even with the last time I rated him.

Want: 100%

Ridley would single handedly cause me to change my main this game. He's that cool.

Sceptile:
Chance: 20%

As much as evidence seems to align(somewhat), I don't see Sceptile having too many cards in his favor as opposed to his leading competitors, Jigglypuff and Mewtwo.

Want: 80%

Sceptile was my favorite starter in Gen 3. He'd also make the current starter trio in the game be all my favorites from each gen they chose from.

 

[Deleted member]

Question: When we say Gematsu leak, are we including the one that was released before E3, or just the Shulk-ChorusKids-Chrom one?

The whole entirety of the Gematsu leak. At least, that is what the original rating was about.

 

[Oniric Spriter]

Sceptile:
Chance- 40% It depends if Sora and Namco were working on him since before XY thus GF letting Sakurai know about Sceptile's comeback. If you've read a certain thread from the Greninja section you'll get what I mean, they made him way before XY was even a thing.

Want- 70% I like Blaziken more, but hey, he's cool too and his Grass-Dragon mega evolution is sick.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Why did you give Sceptile a 90% chance? I'm not trying to criticize you, I'm just curious as to your reasoning.

Well, I already have seen Ridley as a lock, but now I guess its time to reason Sceptile.

Sceptile is an odd case. Everything that could possibly hint towards smash bros has gone in its favor. Ill just cut my response from the Sceptile thread...

Ok, I honestly think we are getting 6 pokemon. And I have to say, I think Sceptile will be one of them.
1. Starter trio: This is a big one. Perhaps the main challenge for Charizard was the idea on not emphasizing one section of the starter trio over any other section. With pokemon trainer, you got an emphasis on the Fire Water Grass triangle and the evolutionary circle to boot. Now, we have a fire and water starter, both fully evolved, so who could our grass starter be? I'd personally exclude 1st gen (seeing Ivy cut 90% sure, and that Venu is least popular Kanto starter, Zard), and 6th gen(Greninja, Chespin Pokeball), so what gens are left? The only grass starter that would be easy to work and is popular is Sceptile.
2. Hoenn Confirmed: To many, the idea of Hoenn remakes was a large hype tool post HGSS. We knew it would happen, we just did not know when. Now, we know that it is coming right near Smash's launch, making it easy to push Sceptile. All of Hoenn's starters are popular, but the trio above makes Sceptile seem easier to hype up.
3. Mega Evolution: To Show off new Megas in ORAS, they show off what? The remaining Hoenn starters. Having a mega makes it so much easier to reason pushing Sceptile, seeing as not only are many kids going to use it, like Greninja and Charizard, but it also is going to be one of the most powerful mons in the game, cementing its impression on people.
4. Anime popularity?: This might be a more off topic point, but out of Ash's starters, Sceptile is one of the most empathized with. It is only second to Charizard in popularity. I see it as likely to empathize ORAS, they will bring Sceptile back in the anime.
5. Gamefreak calls the shots to a degree with pokemon: We should all know this. Sakurai even told us this. For the first time, Gamefreak can promote two pokemon games at once that kids will pick up. Remakes were either too far off with HGSS or too far back with FRLG to promote to a high degree (though arguably FRLG was promoted with PT, though it could be said this was more to show of PKMN in general). Now, they have the option to show off two pokemon games, why won't they take it? The game was delayed...
I know many want Mewtwo, and that Sceptile getting in hurts him. I doubt we will get 7 pokemon, and now in this scenario, Mewtwo must compete with 3 time vet Jiggs again, and we all know how that went when Brawl was delayed. I see Sceptile extremely likely. Call me on a hype train, but I see it as I am just analyzing facts. I hope you all like these points towards our forest master...

It just seems so likely Sceptile will be in. Especially given how easy it would be to simply have Ash have him again to advertise ORAS...
Do I want Mewtwo? Yes. Am I willing to sacrifice Jiggs in order to get him back? That is what I am conflicted on. The fact that Gematsu has Ness being questioned does not bode well for Jiggs, who only really is in at this point for tradition and nothing more. She made sense for 64 and Melee, but for Brawl? Not really, save for tradition (Though to be honest, Mewtwo did not make too much sense either, or par Jiggs for repping Legendaries and being uber popular) Now, Mewtwo makes so much sense, and with Sceptile being so likely in my eyes, who is more expendable? Mewtwo, the most wanted character for SSB4 who can easily promote XY with his two megas, or Jiggs, who has tradition of the original 12 and a fairy type to her name? In my opinion, after thinking really hard (And I mean really hard), here is what I think our pokemon lineup will be...
Pikachu, Charizard, Greninja, Sceptile, Lucario, Mewtwo
I may be wrong, but I don't care, I just see this as happening. It would be the best case for Nintendo, pulling in many pokemon fans, and only alienating a few long time smash fans, who will buy the game anyway.

And Ridley just seems like Sakurai's troll move this time, akin to something like R.O.B enemies in Subspace and having R.O.B playable.

Call me crazy, because I just said Jiggs can be cut, Sceptile is the most likely 5th Pokémon, and Ridley is a shoo in.

 

[False Sense]

Well, I already have seen Ridley as a lock, but now I guess its time to reason Sceptile.

Sceptile is an odd case. Everything that could possibly hint towards smash bros has gone in its favor. Ill just cut my response from the Sceptile thread...


It just seems so likely Sceptile will be in. Especially given how easy it would be to simply have Ash have him again to advertise ORAS...

I wouldn't get your hopes up about Sceptile. There isn't much indication that being a Grass type actually matters to Sakurai, or that the Hoenn remakes will have any sort of impact on Smash whatsoever. There's also the issue of Sceptile being overshadowed by Blaziken in terms of popularity and significance, and not to mention the competition he faces from both Jigglypuff and Mewtwo. Really, analyzing the situation makes it clear that Sceptile is a rather unlikely candidate for Smash.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

I wouldn't get your hopes up about Sceptile. There isn't much indication that being a Grass type actually matters to Sakurai, or that the Hoenn remakes will have any sort of impact on Smash whatsoever. There's also the issue of Sceptile being overshadowed by Blaziken in terms of popularity and significance, and not to mention the competition he faces from both Jigglypuff and Mewtwo. Really, analyzing the situation makes it clear that Sceptile is a rather unlikely candidate for Smash.

I don't wish to argue mate, but there is no evidence that Grass types don't matter to Sakurai, and Sceptile is easily a very popular pokemon in his own right. You can say Sceptile was not in the Greninja trailer to hide ORAS remakes and to not make people feel that an oversaturation of pokemon could occur.

 

[Camc10]

Ridley
Chance: 15%
He had the chance to reveal the most controversial character of smash bros to date, and he didn't.
Want: 50%
Indifferent

Sceptile
Chance: 5%
I don't think the chance of 7 characters is high or that he can get in over Jigglypuff or Mewtwo.
Want: 50%
Indifferent.