Rake's Canadafia Over!! Nabe won through the power of Poutine

[#HBC | J]

J where's your head at

still thinking fanny doesn't make sense on the scumteam?

@ Fandangox this is ground control to major fanny

the people need you

.
Back and forth on Fanny and Ashy. Truly need to think things through because Fanny doesn't make a lot of sense, but neither does Joey. So I have to really analyze the bussing/distancing and if Ashy's D4 play really was as towny as I originally thought.

 

[Kantrip]

mmkay and ash why the change of heart on J?

yesterDay you were saying that in this situation you would just lynch whoever is not J because if J is scum he deserves the win

but now he seems to be your prime suspect

is this all just on going back and reading from D1?

 

[#HBC | J]

thats dumb as heck and id call for your lynch/vig d1 every time until you stopped doing it. it can also be abused if ur scum so it doesnt rly change my read on ur d1 bc even if you DID want 2 sit backyou did choose to engage ever so slightly and youre actuall engagements were poor

It's mainly because I suck at D1 and also I have somewhat "earned" the right to be like that on this site. I am a vet player and the like. Yeah I did engage slightly but if you notice, they are pokes and prods.

 

[#HBC | J]

Brb playing some league. But keep up this quick-time discussion.

 

[Kantrip]

ive gotta go to bed sooooon

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

I was shot not lynched.

Go Town.

 

[Ashemu]

mmkay and ash why the change of heart on J?

yesterDay you were saying that in this situation you would just lynch whoever is not J because if J is scum he deserves the win

but now he seems to be your prime suspect

is this all just on going back and reading from D1?

i meant in 1:1:1 kingmaker <_<

he is not rly my prime suspect, i dont have a preference right now as i wouldnt bee making a totally informed decision, im just going hard bc rereading d1 changed my perspective and i want 2 see what he has to say

 

[Kantrip]

assuming this is 1:1:2 it's still basically the same as 1:1:1 kingmaker

town can't win, best we can do is choose who deserves to win

honestly if it turns out it is J scum and fanny SK, I would much rather give J the win. Fanny does not deserve an indy victory

if he is scum and has some good distancing I wouldn't be salty tho

but yeah

 

[Ashemu]

i mean fandangoxs d1 is also rly bad lol theres just less to grasp at because his was noeffort

 

[Kantrip]

however i am perplexed at the lack of a second kill which, coupled with questioning the balance of this setup, makes me think we may be looking at only 1 scum left after all

 

[Ashemu]

eh i dont want 2 let potential sk affect who we lynch today if we lynch, i think fanny would deserve sk victoyr if we lynched j today just because he never looked bad enough for us 2 lynch him yesterday or today. id only play kingmaker if we were literally in 1:1:1 kingmaker

 

[Kantrip]

and if that's the case and fanny really doesn't fit on the scumteam, I may have to consent to him being town and wonder between ninja ash or scum J

 

[Kantrip]

we could always No Lynch and leave it to fate i guess

but if a double kill happens and robs us of even getting a choice I'd be sad

yeah I'm going to reread J and fanny and look for mafia

tomorrow

 

[Ashemu]

and i would let j win in 1:1:1 kingmaker, im a kawaii anime girl of my word.

however it should be noted that tbh i really only said id let him win in hopes that if i was wrong about his alignment the other scum would shoot him or me to avoid autoloss ^_^

 

[Kantrip]

and i would let j win in 1:1:1 kingmaker, im a kawaii anime girl of my word.

however it should be noted that tbh i really only said id let him win in hopes that if i was wrong about his alignment the other scum would shoot him or me to avoid autoloss ^_^

thats actually some interesting wifom

and neither of you died in a scenario that very well could have ended up in that very situation

hmmmmm

 

[Ashemu]

what do u guys think about the possibility of the sk being limited 2 even-night (probably w/ some other buff at the same time)

 

[Ashemu]

uh odd-night not even-night,i forgot the kill was n3 and not n2

 

[Kantrip]

ehh

could be, not worth speculating

if that is the case, since we're looking for mafia anyways, that could actually put us back in the game

past that not gonna entertain it

 

[Kantrip]

actually naw theyd have a kill toNight anyways

seeya guys tomorrow

 

[Ashemu]

yea we should probably just look 4 maf wich is waht i intended to keep doing, im down for nl if ppl are paranoid but i dont really want to play the setup, as is we just dont know

 

[Fandangox]

With Ryu confirmed tracker then Ahemu/Joe is basically cleared for me then. I don't know if a Ninja is plausible if not then Potassium makes the most sense as SK since being NH's fallback lynch still means they are not aligned, just that NH would not know that Potassium was a SK. Either way Do SKs generally get more than one kill? I know they are usually bulletproof, but I actually don't know if they get more than one shot. If the SK's shot is already wasted then its pretty pointless to go after them cause town loses on that scenario.

I've been re-reading only up to page 10 so far.

only two deaths may mean that there really was a scumvig. or that somebody is scared of kingmaker lol.

i think kant is SK at worst, so ill be rereading the other two. here goes nothing

DAWN OF THE FIRST DAY
god damn it reading J is going to be a pain. #147 is off to a bad start, this post comments on a lot but doesnt push anything. saying words but not backing them up with actual pressure (eg, a vote) shows a lack of town intent or desire to get **** done.

but this is the general vibe i've gotten so far. J posted a lot on D1 and helped the game move along, but he didn't help it move to any direction.

J's D1 consists mostly of him intervening with other's discussions, but doesn't make a push to anyone yet, mostly states his opinions publicly. Lack of vote in itself is not bad, you can still pressure a slot and call them out without voting them (see circus at Bardull on D1) but J hasn't done do that form what I have read so far. I recall J also didn't make a vote D2, but i do remember some pushes there, but still on D1 right now.

Vote: J

Voting mostly off the same PoE from yesterday, won't be able to make a case until I finish re-reading.

 

[Kantrip]

serial killers typically kill every Night

and sometimes are BP or have a 1-shot BP but that's not the norm

 

[Fandangox]

what do u guys think about the possibility of the sk being limited 2 even-night (probably w/ some other buff at the same time)

Wouldn't there be more than one double kill then at this point? Unless SK opted not to kill anyone for some reason, or either the Scum/SK was jailed at one point.

 

[Kantrip]

also no need to throw a vote down so fast holy moly

 

[#HBC | J]

Fanny, get your vote off of me. Just put an FoS or something, jeez.

 

[Fandangox]

Why not? J is very likely to be the last scum and getting the last scum is our highest chance to win. There are to many variables.

If SK gets a kill every other night, that means that next phase they are getting a kill. We lose no matter what in this scenario even if we catch scum.

If SK only had one shot then its already used up we still have a chance of winning this.

This is assuming of course that there is even a SK, its the most likely possibility, but second kill could also be the effect of a scum role.

If we no lynch. scum gets a kill, that puts us at 1 vs 1 vs 1. Basically same as here.

if we no lynch and BOTH SK and scum get a kill them the only chance we have is that they off each other nightphase (not actually sure if the kills would go in this scenario).

Going for the scum lynch is our only chance, unless you actually want to leave it to chance.

 

[#HBC | J]

Fanny, you have been tunneling me since D2. Yet, you have not provided a case nor sufficient reasoning for why you want me lynched. You just decided to piggyback Ashy's reasoning from my "D1" play but you had not brought it up yourself. You keep saying you did not like my responses to your question towards BW, but never explain why my responses were bad. You just keep pushing Jscum and harping on it. Please actually do a case or something against me because I sure as hell am on both you and Ashy to look at the options present and see who is the final scummer. I am leaning on your slot since you have done nothing this game and your incessant tunneling is atrocious.

Regardless, I will be giving both your slot and Ashy's the benefit of the doubt during my two re-reads.

 

[Fandangox]

I said I am re-reading and that I would do a case, I don't even see how "piggybacking" is a thing since I just quoted Ashu's post to state I had a similar impression, I didn't even bring up your defense on BW toDay .

 

[Ashemu]

DAY TWO
j starts off the day finally doing something and it's a lot better than his d1, but again i have to wonder why he coudlnt just do this d1 even if he wanted to be useless and observe

j why withhold your wolf read when questioned unless teh person asking justified the question? a thing id like to know about ur bwolf read is: why does him surviving this far without any pressure or any1 wanting to kill him matter? this doesnt necessarily mean his posts were fine, just that nobody thought they stuck out (& scum wants to be unmermoable so i mean,). why did you yourself not have a stance on whether his actual content was pressurable or not? the calmness also couldve been linked to him just not receiving any pressure. i thikn significantly basing a town-read on how other players are treating the player is very questionable here

nabes post #583 here is interesting, if j is scum then hes intentionally forcing his buddy to give an associative read. as far as i can tell nabe/marshy seem 2 be respected players so this play doesnt seem unreasonable for nohet/j/bwolf to pull off, i am keeping it in mind tho

#606 oh boy. the point on bwolf is strong and it is true he couldve just let frito burn. btw if were looking a nohet/j/bwolf then fannys reads this game were insane which makes me wonder why hed be alive on day 5 <_<

bwolf #625: j how was this and the following post "genuine" at all fypov? he just continues his d1 case and doesnt take new information into account. lazy posts like this are hard for me to read as genuine so im curious how you came up w that

it bugs me that taht fanny had a real case on bwolf which was actually solid, but when asking j about j's read on bwolf he asked j to talk about the meta read instead of considering fannys case

#651 nohet was willing to bend and go bwolf so bussing may not have been out of the question!!! scum fanny couldve also switched to frito too and gotten away w it. However...... nohet doesnt vote bwolf here even though it was an excellent time for him to do so if he wanted to solidify cred.

#663 reads like a loaded question and not somethign youd ask your buddy. when nohet asked j about bwolf there was a lot more wiggle room

#670 bwolf seems legit mad. im gonna say the interactions here dont make sense for fanny bc he didnt have to "ruin the idea" if he was in cahoots w badwolf

j 702: if you wanted a lynch then where was ur vote during this post <_<

yeah im hard leaning j for real now ^_^ i wanted it to be fanny so i could show off but realistically the interactions between bwolf/nohet and the 2 suspects point toward j a lot more than fanny, liek, i can see more coordination as a team if j is mafia, otherwise its as if fanny is just kinda doing his own thing. if the plan coming into d2 was to bus bwolf than nohet wouldve jumped on as they were the teams power player. soooo yea, i guess ill read d3 and d4 for completions sake tho <_<

 

[Ashemu]

@ Kantrip are u sk

 

[Ashemu]

DAY THREE
i am annoyed fandny never did anything wiht his nohet push, its still the main reason i initially suspected him, esp since his point on nohet was very stronkg- in fact its p much exactly for the reason i concluded nohet didnt want 2 bus. that said... if its scum fanny, fanny busses bwolf, nohet the strongest player on the team DOSENT bus bwolf, then day 3 fanny opens the day as if he wants to punish nohet for not bussing. what the fukc? i dont think this make ssense as a team play, id like to hear how j would explain them doing this together as scumbuddies

#777 ok im never ever reading this sorry

i did skip to the end though. LOL "quite soem town" wwwwwww. j's nohet vote here was the main reason i wrote him off as a reasonable suspect sinse it cemented the wagons momentum, however it was framed as a prodvote. question for j: why is a v/la slot not worth pushing? it doesnt make them unlynchable.

wow joey shure is obvtown ^_^

then the day becomes the nohet/kant cluster**** it ended as lol. j keeps his vote down on nohet while chastising kant, fandangox stays on nohet but doesnt vote until the end. neither angle seems more likely to come from scum to me - i do think j looks good for essentially giving kant an out without ever switching his vote, but scumfanny just wouldve looked terrible had he set up nohet pressure only to abruptly flipflop to kant, and this goes back to the "team play" aspect of scum where if his agenda the whole time had been to bus he shouldve been on nohets sweet ass much, much earlier, seeing as he wouldve had no qualms doing so with bwolf d2. its gross that he never tried to push his suspects but he didnt actually do so to scum benefit like i was thinking on d2 so ill let up.

so, onto recent events. idk why you guys are flipping out over fannys early vote, from his pov it really does only make sense for j to be scum, town doesnt benefit from flailing around while in the hot seat lategame, you gotta "**** scum outta hear". i mean yea fanny could make up some dumb case on me but whats the point if he thinks j is maf? im just saying js reaction here is really bad and looks like an attempt to paint fannys actions in a bad light when fanny isnt realy guilty of anything, cuz id have done the same thing in fanny's position

on d4 j put in a lot of effort but i dotn know, scum can put in effort to, i think that just speaks more for him playing a good game if hes scum at this point, re-reading all the interactions indepth makes it very hard for me to see scum-fanny over him regardless of effort level. i will say that either way scum played a pretty good interaction game but i have to choose somebody eventually so hear goes nothing

##Vote: J (L-1)

 

[Ashemu]

*like i was thinking on d4

~____~

 

[#HBC | J]

Oh for the love of christ.

Kanty, please do not hammer me. If you are scum, by all means.

 

[#HBC | J]

i will say that either way scum played a pretty good interaction game but i have to choose somebody eventually so hear goes nothing

The thread, literally, just opened. Calm your ****, girl. I'll get to your questions maybe now or tomorrow, but your logic is incredibly faulty for why you are suspecting me and has a lot of "What ifs?" or "Scum-team rationale".

 

[Ashemu]

yea ppl tend to use associative reads when 2 scum are dead.

 

[#HBC | J]

Yeah, but the fact is your logic when connecting me is incorrect since you are trying to force my puzzle piece into the scum puzzle.

 

[#HBC | J]

#777 ok im never ever reading this sorry

i did skip to the end though.

Points like these make me cringe because you limit your view and perspective as a player. It's shoddy and just bad play.

 

[#HBC | J]

question for j: why is a v/la slot not worth pushing? it doesnt make them unlynchable.

How can you push a slot that isn't there? Joey declared V/LA for pretty much 2 weeks. There was no way I could gather pressure on him nor could I adequately question the slot to further my read on him. I switched the NH because they were an equal scum-read of mine and were actually there for me to push and pursue. No where did I imply Joey was unlynchable and I wasn't going to drop Joey until I saw your posts and thought you were towny.

if you wanted a lynch then where was ur vote during this post <_<

That was a drunk post. I even said I was intoxicated in the post.

 

[#HBC | J]

Too tired, but I hit all the questions you asked. I'll get to my re-read soon enough and continue my figuring out whether Fanny/Ashy is the final scummer.

Initial thoughts:

Albeit, a tad obnoxious, Ashy is leaning my town-read out of the two because of a couple factoids that are present with her play. Her recent flip on me is troubling but not surprising because her reads since she came into the game have been backwards. Ruy's track of her makes me want to believe she is clear unless she is a ninja which would make sense considering the set-up. Her gambit as claiming vig also makes no present sense as the final scummer to do something like that. The one thing that bugs me about her play is her constant "Golly gee guys, look at how townie I am!!!" which may just be a gripe since she is seems the kind of person to do things like that. I don't get why she keeps trying to reaffirm Joey's play as super obv-town because it truly wasn't. Finally, there is one final point that I will give her and that is Joey's vote before he left. He really did not have to vote NH before he left, but he did and that is something I just keep looking at that makes me really ponder why Joey would do that as scum because I know Marshy would have destroyed him for it because there was the Kanty wagon that had exactly the same amount of speed. (I wasn't letting marshy go, but others were looking at it). Ashy's D4 play was alright, it was a 180 from Joey's and has a few points in her favor but a few against as well. There is just more "evidence" shall we call it for me to think Ashy is town. I want to believe she is just having a severe lapse of judgement and continue down the path that Fanny is scum. I feel I may be not being truly fair and going back through a re-read with the bias that Ashy is more likely to be town and Fanny being scum.

However, I have been playing around with this idea. If we do have a Mafia Adreanline thing then that would clear Ashy due to her not being tracked to either of the bodies the final night. Unless it's Mafia Adreanline Ninja which would be bull. (this is why I don't look at set-up speculations mainly because I just truly focus on play and glaring inconsistencies) I don't think this is the case because the flipped mafia members have been one role characters and the same with the Town PRs besides Soup's Town Adreanline Cop.

I'll be able to look at things a bit better because I am considering Kanty clear with his miller claim with the Cop's flip and the Lawyer's flip because it makes sense set-up wise (???) and Kanty's reactions to the wagon from NH and, to me, felt more like NH looking for an easy ML that he thought he could swing but ended up being his down-fall.

Anyways, I'll begin looking more in-depth at Fanny/Ashy with a fine-comb.

 

[Ashemu]

1277: i skimmed it & nothing seemed particularly alginment indicative
1278: why were you not voting anybody in the first place, back when you were sober?

id like to hear why you think the associative tells between fanny-bwolf-nohet dont point toward fanny not being their buddy or are otherwise not relevant. trying to read peoples intent is always going to involve some "what if"s. basically, why did fanny bus when he did?