Rake's Canadafia Over!! Nabe won through the power of Poutine

[#HBC | J]

Haha, that's the internet for ya.

Didn't think you were an oldy and more just a new face to the site with semi-experience.

More and more curiouser.

 

[Ashemu]

im not an on-site player i just joke about being an alt because people assumed i was. i have a dead account from when brawl was released though (probably lost password/email but didnt try). i made a thread about how i felt like tripping was more common on ice and somebody called me dumb, 6 years later it turns out i was right. i hope that guy thinks about that post sometimes and cries because he was wrong & a jerk

 

[Ashemu]

i also still dont understand why ppl think i post like acrostic????

oh well, mafia games

 

[#HBC | J]

That's kind of hysterical.

@ #HBC | Red Ryu

I see you viewing. Fanny's claim is present and I am itchy for your vote. If you would like I'll give you hammer, just let me know.

 

[#HBC | J]

i also still dont understand why ppl think i post like acrostic????

oh well, mafia games

You really don't, like at all.

 

[Blindfolded Philosophers]

I see everyone seems set on lynching our slot, and I'm not really in a position to defend against it since the main point against us seems to be the fact our votes were on the wrong side of the wagons at the end of the day, which is true. It doesn't make us scum, but I can't say "no the votecount was wrong".

I'm just going to sum up my thoughts and point out some glaring oversights in the last few pages and then go on my way. Don't let J call for my hammer until I'm good and finished.


We're Hillbilly Gangster Farmer Saskatchawan (Province of Saskatchwawan), Vanilla Townie

 

[Blindfolded Philosophers]

Ah **** it, everyone was asked and no one claim.

I'm a mounty, guy on a horse, town tracker.

J went no where n1
BP went no where n2
Ash went no where m3.

Unless Ash is a mafia ninja he is probs town.

Dunno about the rest with a flipped jailer though.

Gheb is certain that with Lawyer, Miller, Jailer, and Cop already claimed there's a ninja for any Town Tracker.

idk how the vig fake doesnt make sense, if scum presumes im clear then i get shot and the real vig lives so you have a clear in lylo and dont need to worry about reading me

*Day 5 starts*

Player 1: "I was the real Vig all along."

Player 2: "No, I was."

*benefit erased*

And that's not even considering SK claiming vig and being uncc'd.

#gambitpointlessandselfserving

how does harassing somebody get them lynched? he didnt do **** to convince other people, maybe we have different ideas of how pushing a case works. it's easy to just argue back and forth with somebody even if (especially if, perhaps) they're your scumbuddy, pushing is when you actually try to make other townies vote with you

i guess u have a point about what votes were there beforehand... when reading i felt like they didnt mean much in the long run because evidently nobody ****en votes on this forum until 24 hours before deadline. i am not rly comfortable about how fanny went in2 coastmode the day after though

do u want to explain why your vote was on kantrip D3 when gheb was treating kantrip as obvtown btw

He voted Badwolf without waiting to see what anyone thought of his new suspicion, and people followed him enough to lynch him, that's the essence of leading people in mafia. There's no reason to bring Badwolf up at all as a scummate at that point. No one had talked about him in pages before then.


I voted Kantrip to see if he'd fall apart at the seams tbh, because logically there was no reason not to have claimed Miller right away as town. Gheb made it clear to me he thought he was town, but I wanted to see for myself because that response was awful. I didn't expect the day to actually finish with that vote active.

http://smashboards.com/threads/rakes-canadafia-day-4-begins.350228/page-21#post-16555453 i feel liek the switch here makes j hard town

bp: http://smashboards.com/threads/rakes-canadafia-day-4-begins.350228/page-12#post-16510501 why did you make this switch if you were as certain on soup as you were here? in context it reads like scum wanted a cop mislynch but realized it was improbable and decided to take what they could get. why did you not push a soup lynch harder?

J SK has always been much more likely once the possibility emerged, voting NH =/= a clear J

Why did I not push harder to lynch the claimed cop a few hours before deadline when there were not enough votes to make it happen... Maybe because he could have very well been the cop, and as I said, actually spoke words? Unless you're claiming you'd rather have a no lynch it was the right move.

also i dont think j is scum ujst because a sk is generally not going to shoot the cop claim n1

2 be clear (bc i forgot my ow nlgoci immediately after re-reading my own post)

raz stopped a kill n1 (presumably)
j didn't go anywhere n1
soup died n1

if we assume scum shot soup then j can not be scum unless he is ninja

Why do you assume the SK shot night 1 at all, saving the information that there's an SK at all until later in the game is a very solid strategy. Furthermore, why do you assume Raz didn't jail the SK in the assumption that SK always shoots. You're ignoring every scenario where J is scum but not the one shooting Soup, including J being SK and not shooting, J being SK and being jailed, and J being mafia and not delivering the shot (though unlikely based on connections).

in fact i think j might not even be probable as sk, bc of how he buddied bwolf... generally SKs want to survive and allow townies to die at that point in the game, by hard defending bwolf he stops a lynch if successful, and if unsuccessful he ties himself to the flip and draws attention (even if bwolf is town he risks "J was scum white knighting obvtown!!!!!!" because townies r really fickle lol)

it could just be him atempting to play very genuine but i think its town intended tbh

This is reasonable, but I wouldn't classify a simple gut town meta read as a hard defense in D1. SK gotta play the game too.

 

[Blindfolded Philosophers]

BP's reads of great justice

Fandangox:
Should be town based on all empirical evidence I've seen from capping Badwolf unprovoked. He could be Indy but it's not really worth speculating on. We could be wrong, but we don't think we are. His main detraction seems to be that people don't think he did as much for town after that, but I don't feel like that's true as a scum-tell over just regular play. It's possible (and if he is I'll feel bad for taking the noose for him), but it seems very unlikely.

Kantrip:
Should also be town based on everything we've seen. I had my doubts during D3 when NH brought up that his scum behavior in Tranquillity (when I was his scum partner) was to try the "woe is me" angle, but after that giant case it would be a dynamite hail-mary distance for Kantrip to be scum.

J:
Highly questionable. He came into today making the choice between Fandangox and Us when all previous signs pointed to Joey as previously outlined. The slot is there but the follow-through seems very lacking when considering the D2 interactions with us that never got expounded on from his side, the Badwolf gut-reads, the Kantrip arguing D3, and this new lack of Joey followup. A good SK candidate.

Ryu:
His play has definitely had some questionable moments, and should probably be re-evaluated. We don't think he's Indy, but Mafia Tracker is a possibility that shouldn't go completely unnoticed here, especially when the potential for an SK is high.

Ashemu:
This slot to us is the worst of them. The slot was extremely questionable before the replacement and despite numerous assertions from Ashemu that the slot is "obvtown" it is most certainly not, especially not for interactions with NH, and his bringing it up so vehemently is grimy. I want everyone to take a close look at the interaction between Joey and NH on D3, because what I see is a slot (Joey) being more willing to vote itself than vote NH.

vote: Joey

I town read Kantrip. If my lynch will keep him around since the case on him is a connection case with me if I recall correctly, then lynch me first, especially with me being the back up and the guaranteed lynch tomorrow. If I flip scum, jump all over Kantrip. No reason to go deep on him if you're jusy assuming I'm scum and just delaying my lynch by a day and making Rake find a replacement for my slot for no reason.

This wording in particular feels like a setup to try and follow his lynch with a Kantrip mislynch to give NH momentum since Joey was trying to replace. There was nothing at all stopping Joey from reaching this conclusion before the conclusion to vote himself:

I'm dying regardless, so I'm not sure why I shouldn't try to keep a townie alive even if it only changes things slightly. -shrug-

Vote: No Hetero

So the question remains, why keep NH alive before him if Joey was Town? Do NOT give Ashemu credit for terrible play no matter how many times it's asserted. His connections are gross and his gambit was awful. Don't forget it.

 

[Blindfolded Philosophers]

EBWOP:

"The slot is there" in J's section should read "The slot's talk is there"

 

[Blindfolded Philosophers]

And now forsooth I shalt drink mine hemlock. Mine only regret, being on the wrong wagons and thereby having no defense.

In the words hallowed and wisened words of Aristotle:

"Peace mah nigz, **** cray"

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

I'm v/la right now but J, why are you so pushy for me to end the day?

 

[#HBC | J]

Hmm give me a sec actually. I need to look at one player in particular one final time.

Something just hit me as a possibility.

 

[Kantrip]

BP's reads of great justice

Fandangox:
Should be town based on all empirical evidence I've seen from capping Badwolf unprovoked. He could be Indy but it's not really worth speculating on. We could be wrong, but we don't think we are. His main detraction seems to be that people don't think he did as much for town after that, but I don't feel like that's true as a scum-tell over just regular play. It's possible (and if he is I'll feel bad for taking the noose for him), but it seems very unlikely.

this read is really shallow

like okay I'll give you a disconnect from badwolf making him unlikely mafia

but you give absolutely zero points as to why he can't be indy besides "well he could be but we don't think he is and we don't think we're wrong"

like what makes him town over indy? You say the one point people have against him is something you don't think is a big deal (you can't even disagree with it because it's a verifiable fact) yet you have nothing to push the slot in a town direction so why the hell is he anything better than null?

all that said, im very confused at BP opting not to even leave fanny scum as an open option considering fanny and BP are the slots being weighed, and calling fanny town puts BP at risk. BP is about to get lynched, and rather than push for the alternative to stay alive, they disagree with our consensus and accept their fate

doesn't seem like a last-of-your-faction kind of move to make to me

 

[Kantrip]

Unvote

 

[Kantrip]

ruy and ash talk to me about the possibility of J being scum

J lay out whatever it is you're looking into when you get a chance please

 

[#HBC | J]

Thing I am weirded out about is Ruy's claim as Tracker. It seems really unfair to Mafia to have a tracker+cop+jailer+miller. I mean with Jailer "protecting" one of the PRs, maybe but let's say that Jailer used his role as an RB (like Kary did to me to catch me in Paper Mario on D5) then that would give town 3 awesome PRs to **** scum up. Unless Cop was a psuedo-fake role with Lawyer, but the Lawyer can only choose one person iirc. With the miller, that makes sense in this set-up. So let's think this one through more.

Assuming we have an Indy (which is kind of bull for a small set-up, especially if they have a gun). If mafia had a ninja, that would counteract the tracker and actually make the set-up more fair. Lawyer beats Cop, Ninja beats Tracker. Jailer trumps all though. The more I think about it, the more Ruy's role makes sense. Plus the fact that he is "clearing" Ashy in a end-goal situation makes no sense as scum. The only way Ruy could be mafia is if he was indy so that is the only category I can put him int. The thing I am honing in on is who the final mafia member is then I can worry about the indy speculation.

Here's why I am not going after Ashy as I thought I would have considering the previous Day-phase. I just do not see Ashy's play as scummy. It is a complete 180 of Joey's play which was "here, not here, okay but I am here to always vote at the last minute" kind of thing. Ashy makes a fantastic point though, why would Joey have voted NH when he could have voted Kanty and tied the wagons up? Raz/NH/BP were all on Kanty at the time and Joey could have easily done that and gotten away with it, however, he voted for his scum-partner. Yes, we could incorporate bussing but the wording and the way he did as such does not make me believe this to be the case. He voted NH to save "a town read(Kanty)" because he felt Kanty's flailing was towny. That is the case. I feel Kanty cannot be mafia. I find it unlikely that he is indy too considering he had NO self-preservation during the time of his lynch and even self-voted out of anger and giving up. If this was a player who has a history of doing things like that as indy(I can only recall myself doing something so crazy it worked), then maybe I would look at it differently. However, it is Kantrip who for lack of a better terms due to his track record of play, I doubt he would be scum. So for now, Kanty is my strongest 100% town-read, neither faction of scum. I would say Ashy/Ruy do not make sense as being the final mafiosi because of Joey's play and Ashy's play.

To go more into why I like Ashy would be simple. I like Ashy's play because her gambit rang towny for me. There is no point for her to gambit like that as scum. Especially the final scum. Plus with the evidence of an SK or some indy variant of that, claiming a gun at this stage of the game is suicidal. So that rules her out for being indy (also the same with Joey and his self-vote) plus that makes me think that she is actually town and not mafia by similar extension of logic. She drew a lot of attention to herself. Let's also go into her reads at the time when she first posted. She said that she was coming into the game with the intent to vote Kanty, after reading up before the flip. This could be her lying and trying to say things that would seem towny, but she chose to say that she thought Kanty was the scum out of him and NH. That makes no sense coming from the final scum to be backing the fact that she found the scummy, not scummy, and the towny scummy in that debate. She also is looking at other options for lynches and asking questions/generating thoughts that I can see her process to and continue to try and find out who the final scummer is. Therefore, I conclude that Ashy would be my second town-read at this point.

Moving on, we have Ruy who is our claimed tracker. Based on his results, I can say that I know he is speaking the truth for me because I went nowhere last night and by extension, I know he is telling the truth because he claimed that Ashy went nowhere N3 which since I am choosing to believe she is town and by extension, her claim of VT makes Ruy's results look better in my eyes. I am going to double-check who he investigated N2 but I believe it was BP. I will get to this in another post so I am just doing a stream of consciousness typing to flesh out everything in this phase.

Finally, there is Fanny and BP who I am going back and forth on being the final mafia member and the indy. I am going to try and do an isolated look at their posts and come to my conclusion at that time. For now, I am thinking that BP is the final scum *still* and Fanny is the indy *still*.

Anyways, I am off to read since I have some time and I can't sleep. Sorry if this turned out to be a wall, but this game has been on my mind.

 

[Kantrip]

so wait was ruy the player you needed to look at again or what?

 

[Ashemu]

i think ruys claim is weird 2 but really, really doubt he's the final mafia member for play reasons

is giving SKs powers a thing that happens in vanilla games on this site?

 

[#HBC | J]

Yes, I also needed to confirm if I felt as strongly as I did on you and Ashy. My feeling still resonate on you two so I am now done thinking about your guys' slots for either faction of scum.

Ruy is my like "weird null" so I needed to check up on him to make sure I felt the town vibes I had read are town vibes. D2 is telling for me besides the fact that if Ruy was the scum-team, him and NH switched from Frito to BW because those were the two lynches. The only way that makes sense is if Ruy was the PR and they thought to sacrifice BW>Ruy due to play and Ruy's role. Plus NH never explained why he was "feeling good" about Ruy and changing his thoughts because it seems fabricated. That's not to say it's a fault to Ruy but NH's response during the time was off. Still, NH was hounding Ruy D2 and also D1 if I recall. There is also Circus case. Ruy pushed Circus hard and was the only one to think of him as scum. To delve into some wine here, I could see a scum-team with Ruy on it NK'ing Circus to draw actually positive attention to Ruy because "Welp herpderp, Ruy was wrong, that makes him town." because that is literally what everyone did when Circus was killed and a couple people (Myself/Gorf) commented on the NK being incredibly weird because Circus was far from a town-read on anyone's radar and was saw as mainly null by the cast. It is an avenue that is sketch and holds no weight truly besides just playing around with thoughts since there is no evidence to back up what I am saying. For me, it's Ruy's claim that has me believing he is town, but play-wise, that's where I am sitting on the fence for. I can see Mafia Tracker, but the way he claimed does not make me feel like he is indy that is 100%. He more than likely would have to be mafia. If Ruy is mafia, certain question marks fit better than BP being scum.

Also doing math as a side-thing: If we lose this game because we didn't acquire perfect lynches and only had 1 mislynch, that is utter bull as a modding/set-up error. 4 scum out of 13 is really high considering that leaves 9/13. Unless the indy has a "joint-win condition" but that is just terrible in of itself. I am going through the numbers but if we had even mislynched more than just the D1 Pawn lynch, we would not have been able to win this game (as town) with us literally having to have a near perfect game.

 

[Kantrip]

mods are pretty free with what they can do with their setup as long as it gets approved

and crazy things can get approved if there's a semblance of balance

no "normal" roles or anything like that, it's anything goes

an indy tracker is within the realm of possibility role-wise, if that's what you're getting at, but I still don't see that from ruy play-wise

 

[#HBC | J]

i think ruys claim is weird 2 but really, really doubt he's the final mafia member for play reasons

is giving SKs powers a thing that happens in vanilla games on this site?

Could be a "JoAT Indy" with a gunshot. Or he could be a SK.

I keep leaning on Fanny being the indy because if I recall, Raz had a huge hard-on for that slot for being town and could honestly have been "protecting" him each night.

 

[Kantrip]

my dk mafia was like, what

11 players with 2 mafia and a serial killer?

13 players with 3 mafia and a serial killer could be a thing

numbers-wise in scum's favour but we've all seen the PR's we had on our side, guess that was the trade-off rationale?

 

[Ashemu]

i still think rajams posts d1 were really obviously town lol. i also dont think ruys interactions with nohet were a bus. i dont even thinkthe way ruy claimed makes sense for scum of any faction, why narrow it down with a weird claim that doesnt totally fit in the set-up when nobody really thinks ur maf anyway??

i also dont think j is maf for being instrumental in the nohet lynch with solid timing that doesnt look liek a bus, if u have a case ill consider it but he looks pretty solid 2 to me

 

[Ashemu]

it is distinctly possible ruy is sk who was gonna cc me, realized people might catch him if he claimed vig, then panicked and claimed tracker instead.

 

[Ashemu]

ryuy did u crumb tracker anywhere?

 

[#HBC | J]

Possibly with the PRs argument making it "fair" I am still wondering who approved this, tbh if the set-up is what we believe it to be.

@ Ashemu Can you please bring up that Rajam post? I have no idea which one you are talking about.

 

[Kantrip]

x1 mafia goon
x1 mafia lawyer
x1 mafia ninja/goon

x1 independent serial killer/ninja SK

x1 town adrenaline cop
x1 town tracker
x1 town jailer
x1 town miller
x5 town vanilla

yeah this setup is really swingy and town loses if they get really unlucky off of two mislynches, but they could also benefit stupidly from the swing with a possible scum lynch into scum + indy crossfire leaving 9 town trying to find one more member of the mafia

town has lots of PRs, scum has ways to deal with them and town has a miller as well, scum also has pretty hefty numbers

i mean overall this makes sense

we got pretty lucky with how things turned out and if raz survived and gave us his targets this would surely be even easier than it is

as it stands i think we're overthinking things and just need to one-two punch fanny and BP, my paranoia about BP's recent play aside

 

[Kantrip]

with 6 of us left a mislynch now followed by 2 kills on townies would leave us with 3v1v1, meaning all three townies still make up the majority on their own

im like 100% positive that there is at least one scum between BP and fanny, so even if one of those is a mislynch I trust whoever is left in 3-way LyLo with the last scum to make the right choice

Vote: Blindfolded Philosophers

 

[#HBC | J]

I'm scared to take the dive because if we are wrong on BP, then we could effectively lose this game purely based on not nailing scum back-to-back-to-back. (which I will raise hell after the game is over.

What is an adrenaline cop? God, it's been so long since I played mafia that I am continuously asking like a newbie what roles mean.

 

[Kantrip]

I'm scared to take the dive because if we are wrong on BP, then we could effectively lose this game purely based on not nailing scum back-to-back-to-back. (which I will raise hell after the game is over.

What is an adrenaline cop? God, it's been so long since I played mafia that I am continuously asking like a newbie what roles mean.

i forget i just remember thats what soup said the role was called or something

i think it was like if he gets a guilty he gets 2 investigates the next Night or something like that

 

[#HBC | J]

If we mislynch we land in a possible of BP being town which means this scenario

3 townie
1 mafia
1 indy

If both mafia and indy NK and let's say they hit 2 townies, hell even one we are in prisoner's dilemma where town would have to choose which faction wins out of mafia/indy. 2 v 1 v 1 or 1 v 1 v 1. We have to nail scum toDay if town has any chance of winning.

 

[#HBC | J]

i forget i just remember thats what soup said the role was called or something

i think it was like if he gets a guilty he gets 2 investigates the next Night or something like that

That would actually make sense and counteract the Lawyer role quite nicely.

 

[Ashemu]

rajam's posts at the start of d1 were trying really really hard to grasp at something and move teh game forward, instead he drew a ton of flack because they were also prety silly. it's just not something u see scum do unless theyre typically a very gung-ho player & are specifically attempting to abuse that cred

wanna just lynch bp honstly >.> yea we could lose if we're wrong. we could lose if we're wrong on anybody else too but that doesn't mean we should nolynch. im most confident in bp rn. his case on me sux, if scum!joey wants to bus nh he does that from the get-go instead of enabling the lynch last minute, scum does not go "hmmm nope id ratehr self vote than mislynch a townie or get some cred".

 

[#HBC | J]

Kanty, math is hard haha. If BP is town, in the Night phase we are at 3v1v1 and not during the DayPhase.

 

[Kantrip]

If we mislynch we land in a possible of BP being town which means this scenario

3 townie
1 mafia
1 indy

If both mafia and indy NK and let's say they hit 2 townies, hell even one we are in prisoner's dilemma where town would have to choose which faction wins out of mafia/indy. 2 v 1 v 1 or 1 v 1 v 1. We have to nail scum toDay if town has any chance of winning.

how so?

3 townie
1 mafia
1 indy

thats 5 players so it takes 3 to lynch
so the 3 townies can lynch on their own

so its not prisoners dilemna yet

and if they lynch either of the scum then only 1 NK will happen, making it 2v1 (3-way LyLo)

lrn2math

 

[Ashemu]

liek im gonna be straight (no hetero), everything bp says screams scum trying to weasel out of being in lylo with few viable options to me. fandangox also did at first but i thought he got a bit better as he responded to j, he is still grimy tho.

 

[#HBC | J]

Dude, we go into the night with 3 townies.

Mafia/Sk still have NKs.

 

[Kantrip]

wow i look really dumb right now lol

 

[Ashemu]

i also maintain that his stance on soup/pawn late d1 was str8 up garbage lmao

 

[Kantrip]

at least there's a pretty good chance that cross-fire between scum could happen

they could hit the same person or each other