PYP mafia! Game over!

[Thirdkoopa]

Maven: Soup, Shish (2)
Moydow: Kantrip, Vult Redux, Thirdkoopa (3)
Not Voting: Maven, Moydow, Pokechu, Nabe, Kantrip, Fandangox

As much as yesterday was amazing, I realllllly don't want to pull a clutch unless we can avoid it.

 

[Thirdkoopa]

Maven and Moydow will probably vote for each other so

Pokechu Hi. You've been quiet today. Anything you'd like to say? I don't think we should gamble a deadline hammer twice in a row I know it's not quite as interesting as Sephiroth vs The World (hey, just like the actual FFVII)

Fandangox Kantrip Put a vote down please. Short phase. I don't care if you change it

#HBC | Nabe #661. I just want to see how you feel about Maven is as the play for today once you're done. When do you think the latest you'll be done is?

Maven89 About when do you think the earliest/latest you can post is? If you give us a timeframe it's easier on all of us.

Sorry if I seem pushy - I really don't want to clutch again (even with last clutch saving me and catching scum)

 

[Fandangox]

I was scumreading them both because I thought both of them had points towards them being scum. Yes I also thought (and still do) that they weren't scum together, which also means that I assumed one of my scumreads was wrong.

While Seph didn't have town points for anything in my read on him, and Koopa was mixed, there wasn't a vast difference in my opinion on the two of them. Definitely nothing I was particularly confident in, I just knew the lynch should definitely be between them.

You are right that I should have been on Seph. My reason for not switching was just to keep both as viable lynch options and get people's stances to make them pick between them. Since I created a viable alternative to the Seph lynch, I honestly believe scum was on the Koopa wagon and we benefited from giving them hope that they could save their mate. I realize this applies to me as well and I would be pressuring someone in my position as well for not switching at deadline, especially when my words implied I was having second thoughts about Koopa scum.

In hindsight, I wish I had switched to Seph but I am glad it didn't end up mattering thanks to soup and Pokechu and Vult who were all either directly or indirectly responsible for Seph being ahead of Koopa in votes.

That's all fine and well, but given your wording and conclusion in your #558 it seemed like you were convinced at that point that Seph was a better lynch than Third. You even pointed out a possible follow-up to look into in case seph flipped scum.

At that point it would have made a lot of sense to switch wagons from your POV. That was the perfect opportunity why didn't you take it?

 

[Fandangox]

I've gone through specifically the Poisoner votes and pro-Poisoner people, as well as people on the fence, and didn't really touch on people who were against Poisoner. In the latter group, Fanny had a solid back-and-forth with Seph about Poisoner and was against Poisoner throughout Day 0, and was consistently on RB+RC. Maven decided after a few hours that Poisoner was a no, then was hard-opposed, but didn't engage with Seph in Poisoner talk when prompted, and was very keen and vocal that I vote in time when my vote could have gotten Poisoner tied with Role Cop. Just thinking out loud here.

Spoiler

Fire gets the first post with positive movement on Poisoner, which is meaningless, but only mentions Poisoner in the post, which is a little interesting. Anyway, he calls Poisoner useless.


Another read of Poisoner as useless.


Role Cop is a hard no over only Disguiser, Poisoner discussed as a coin-flip possibility.


"Easy to deal with." Maven prompts a follow-up on this from Z25, which didn't really clear up what Z25 meant here. Focus afterwards went towards Z25's Hider pick. I didn't quote it here, but I wonder who all was on him about Hiders, and I'm going to check after this post.


Fire thinks it's Day Vig, Tracker, and a coin-flip between Driver and Jailer (no explanation). I don't know how scum would use tracker to produce WIFOM, aside from by leaving Tracker out and claiming a track on someone, or hoping that the tracker hits them so they can claim a role?


Koops lumps Role Cop in the "least worst" category with Poisoner and Roleblocker. And while that's technically true from his POV, since he's discarded Hider and Disguiser at this point, I think it's odd to lump the remaining three as "least worst" when his previous post called Role Cop 'nononononono' and suggested that it had 'devastating combos.' (Which ones?)


Isn't RB + RC likely to be one of the 'devastating combos'? It's not clear how RC got away from being a hard 'no' so quickly. It's important to note, on a micro level, Maven was currently questioning the 'ease' of dealing with Poisoner, so it was unclear at this time if town thought that poisoner was worth doing.


Only quoting this because it's an example of Koops being on the fence, and that's important in a bit.


Here, Koops says that he's leaning towards Role Cop regardless of GLG's response about the bus driver, which is weird because, again, RC was a six-no pony less than two hours prior, and the logic hadn't changed in that time, but the air in the thread had clarified in a positive direction for Role Cop. Again, just thinking out loud.


Maven is willing to discuss the inclusion of jailer. I don't think that this necessarily suggests that he wants Poisoner, he may just want to hear more from potential scumspects who do want Poisoner.


Koops' direct response to Maven. While this is all true in the moment, it doesn't help to make sense of 'leaning towards Rolecop' in Koops' previous post. Given what he first said about RC being a no, RC should only be a lean if and when GLG confirms that Poisoner hits through Bus Driver.



Shish votes RC and Poisoner, saying that they don't synergize (true) while RB and RC would (true).


Having heard from GLG that Poisoner doesn't affect RC, Koops says 'this makes it a bit harder to choose.' Why? Koops said before that he was leaning RC, and before that he said RC was a hard no, so if either one of those is real, it should make the choice a straightforward one from his POV. And Koops doesn't provide an immediate opinion on the question here -- he asks it as an open question, and then asks Shish why he wants Role Cop over Roleblocker.


Shish weighs RB versus RC. Poisoner is assumed.


Koops wants to discuss Poisoner, as in, over RC. Not RC over Poisoner, when RC was a no. I'm probably nitpicking.


Shish expresses that Poisoner is a good pick that only counters one role, and he says that RB+RC is a bad combination, but he changes Poisoner to RB anyway, which leaves his votes as RB+RC. He may have meant to tag someone other than me here, but I don't know who he meant.


Responding to Maven, Z25 says that poisoner is easy to deal with "compared to the other ones", going on to say that RC and Disguiser can cause more problems.



Importantly, Seph's flip and the Jailer flip show that mafia was trying to get Poisoner through if possible. Seph also says RC over RB, and expresses the universally-liked point that Hider and Disguiser are pro-scum options, which strongly suggests a lack of info roles picked by scum.


Moydow says she could go either way on Poisoner or RC. She states the same point as Seph and a few others, that RB+RC is scary for scum to have as a combination. She then says that she's leaning RC, but "they're both equally dodgy", which coupled with the previous sentence talking about RB+RC is a lot of talk about RC being bad over Poisoner.


Seph trashes RB + RC, presumably wanting RC + Poisoner since a Jailer exists.


Koops says, if Poisoner, then RB, as RC gives scum information. Information isn't actually relevant to the Poisoner, since the Poison is meant to hit through the Jail, not to hit the Jailer itself. If Poisoner is a sure thing, then for scum, RB is better than RC. Seph actually voices this point as well. Koops says he's curious to hear more about Role Cop being weak. Again, RC was a hard no for him to begin with. At this point, after sleeping on it, Koops still doesn't have a definite idea.


Koops asking me if I think RC+RB is the optimal path.


Koops states that RB is settled, and directly asks Seph to clarify if he wants Poisoner over RC, because Seph has been saying Poisoner + RC.


Z25 makes clear that he hates RC as an option.


Fand countering the idea that RB+RC is too strong.


Seph reiterates how safe Poisoner is.


Koops finally places his second vote (Poisoner) saying he'll put his vote where his mouth is. He unnecessarily lists all three combinations of the three discussed roles, suggesting that any of the three would be fine if that's what people want.


This is an odd statement to make about Role Cop. Koops was opposed to Role Cop from the beginning. He makes it sound as if he was on Role Cop, but was convinced that it was the lesser of two evils.



k


Seph hadn't voted yet, and he did vote for Poisoner after this post.


Right for the wrong reasons, heh.


Z25 explains himself out of Hider with a preference for Poisoner. He was already off of Hider, though, and this was an unsolicited response to Maven; no one asked Z25 to back up his choices.


Not much to say about this, it's a vote for Poisoner with reasoning, 45 minutes before the deadline.


That's no votes from me, J, Vult, and .

Checking into Day 1 votes next.

Alright I read all of this, and while you do point out an interesting contradiction for Third pre-game this still seems like a big wall to just generate content.

So whats the play that you think we should be making out of this? You obviously want us to look into people that were pushing poisoner, but aside from listing every little thing that seemed off here you are not actually ending on a conclusive target.

You said later someone in the Seph wagon could be scum, so giving what posted who do you think it is and why?

 

[Vult Redux]

I have expressed my perspective on D0 content in the event there is a Jailer flip. It's now relevant a lot sooner than I thought so here's what I said:

ALSO I've thought about potential scenarios and I'm not sure the mafia had a strong opinion for Rolecop vs Poisoner ASSUMING there is a Jailer in the setup because they would be roughly equally strong (imo)..

I still feel the same way. To reiterate, I really don't think Poisoner was that much better than Rolecop. Just because the Poisoner was tailored to countering Jailer doesn't much it was the best choice.

If I were mafia I would not have particularly cared whether the selection was a Rolecop or Poisoner. I think they are about equally as powerful in a setup with a Jailer. Even if the mafia did have a preference I really don't think they would care SO much that it would make a relevant impact on their gameplay.

All of this to say that there are too many assumptions (i.e. that the mafia preferred Poisoner) if we analyze Poisoner votes. So I don't care much for Nabe's and Moy's focus on Poisoner votes...

 

[Vult Redux]

^ and I know someone will try to be a jerk and insinuate that I'm trying to stifle discussion. That's not the case. I just think that Nabe and Moy are possibly being... strategic about their focus on D0.

 

[Vult Redux]

EBWOP:

All of this to say that there are too many assumptions (i.e. that the mafia preferred Poisoner) if we analyze Poisoner votes.

I realized I said assumptions but only stated one. The assumptions are (1) that the mafia preferred Poisoner over Rolecop and (2) that the mafia preferring Poisoner so much that actively tried to get hammer it.

My argument is that these assumptions are uuuuh weak, to say the least.

 

[Thirdkoopa]

^ and I know someone will try to be a jerk and insinuate that I'm trying to stifle discussion. That's not the case. I just think that Nabe and Moy are possibly being... strategic about their focus on D0.

Clarify: When you say that they're being strategic, you mean that as in "it's a scum tell" way, right? I just want to make sure we're on the same page here.

I'm willing to wait to see what Nabe still has to say about all the Votes on Day 1, but, Moydow's answer to my "Who would you lynch if not Maven? Which one of these five?" answer was pretty telling... especially since it had nothing to do with the five I mentioned. It reeks of non-commitment.

 

[Kantrip]

Maven and Moydow will probably vote for each other so

Pokechu Hi. You've been quiet today. Anything you'd like to say? I don't think we should gamble a deadline hammer twice in a row I know it's not quite as interesting as Sephiroth vs The World (hey, just like the actual FFVII)

Fandangox Kantrip Put a vote down please. Short phase. I don't care if you change it

#HBC | Nabe #661. I just want to see how you feel about Maven is as the play for today once you're done. When do you think the latest you'll be done is?

Maven89 About when do you think the earliest/latest you can post is? If you give us a timeframe it's easier on all of us.

Sorry if I seem pushy - I really don't want to clutch again (even with last clutch saving me and catching scum)

Check the Moydow wagon again.

 

[Thirdkoopa]

Check the Moydow wagon again.

headdesk; my b

How do you feel about Moydow's most recent posts?

Maven: Soup, Shish (2)
Moydow: Kantrip, Vult Redux, Thirdkoopa (3)
Not Voting: Maven, Moydow, Pokechu, Nabe, Fandangox, Z25 (6)

Z25 yooo. I know I'm voting Moydow but if you're feeling Maven more you make your call.

 

[Fandangox]

Okay I was gonna wait for Maven to post his stuff, but I will most likely not be on for tomorrow as I am massively busy at work.

Vote: Nabe

I think one mistake some of you are making here is to put too much focus on who voted what role on pre-game. Admittedly, their pre-game content was the reason why I was town-leaning on Seph and Maven, but it was more because it seemed they had town's best interest at play when discussing the roles rather than what they actually voted for.

Which is why I don't like Nabe's #674, is a big wall that points out some contradictions (namely Third's) but Nabe is just relying on that to go off and not their actual play. Like if it were teh start of day 1 that Nabe post would be beautiful, but it is day 2 and we have a confirmed Scum flip and Nabe's still not really showing any scumhunting intent at all.

 

[Vult Redux]

Clarify: When you say that they're being strategic, you mean that as in "it's a scum tell" way, right? I just want to make sure we're on the same page here.

Yes I'm saying it feels scummy. I'm just being polite.

also I know I don't need to convince you because you're already voting Moy, but I'm more comfortable lynching Moy than Maven.

I don't want to stall out the Day so this is my lynch priority list for the players that aren't in the "confirmed town" (I'm saying this half-seriously) circle.

On a scale of bad to good:

Moy <- Yeah he has to go ASAP. I'm sure he's a cool dude tho.
Nabe <- A lot of his content feels too manufactured to me. Ironically the same issue I had with Seph. Like the stuff about gambiting other players Night 1 and then suddenly "oops it's invalid because of the RC+RB". He's a clever player and I don't buy it.

--- gap ---

Soup <- I don't hate his content but there are some concerns. For example his opening post D2 said I was highest on his townreads but he never reached out to me N1.
Fand <- Too many questions and not enough pressure. Thing is iirc this is typical for him.
Maven <- He looks worse on paper than I think he actually does. I had an interaction with him last Night that felt town.

--- gap ---

Kantrip <- he's town.

 

[Kantrip]

Fwiw I agree that focusing on D0 discussion is a waste of time and way too much WIFOM for me. Poisoner opinions were valid independent of mafia choosing jailer, and it's murky territory to get into "mafia probably pushed for poisoner cuz it benefited them." I'd sooner can that talk and focus our confirmed scum flip and the wagons that occurred yesterDay.

Fandangox - I've answered as to my thought process and I agree that I should have switched wagons. Again I will say that I only didn't because I saw the Seph wagon as adequately populated and wanted to keep the Koopa pressure. Seph had Vult and Shish pressuring him plenty, whereas I was really the primary source of Koopa interrogation, at least at the beginning of the wagon.

The time when I should have switched was when it came close to deadline and I still thought Koopa's answers were better than Seph's. Making a post minutes from deadline about thinking Seph was the better lynch and not actually moving my vote is bad, and I acknowledge that. I don't have an answer for it because you're right, I should have switched to Seph.

 

[Kantrip]

headdesk; my b

How do you feel about Moydow's most recent posts?

Maven: Soup, Shish (2)
Moydow: Kantrip, Vult Redux, Thirdkoopa (3)
Not Voting: Maven, Moydow, Pokechu, Nabe, Fandangox, Z25 (6)

Z25 yooo. I know I'm voting Moydow but if you're feeling Maven more you make your call.

Haha all good.

I don't get much from the recent posts at all, but I also don't feel encouraged by Nabe's recent contributions.

I hope to see Maven's response, because right now I'm trying to juggle which of him/Nabe I dislike more. I doubt both of them are scum together based on some D1 interactions.

I think Moydow is the play I prefer for toDay though, but seeing people take a stance on Maven is certainly helpful.

I agree with what soup brought up about Moydow late Day 1, and I'm confused as to why Maven's a bigger priority for him because I think his Moydow case was more convincing. In addition, Moydow's reads list feels like it reached to justify predetermined reads rather than occurring organically, if that makes sense. The Seph read in particular stands out after Seph's flip, as does the Koopa read. It feels like Moydow made sure to justify joining the Koopa wagon over Seph and giving Seph a very non-committal "need to see more" read to leave options open.

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

Wanted to pressure Maven. Didn't know how to feel about his response to everything and feel I would get more out of him in direct conversation. Will probably switch back to Moydow if it came to hammer/deadline

 

[Kantrip]

Reasonable. I guess I approached D1 the same minus the switching part, lmao.

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

Not sure about Nabe direction. I feel like I'm in a perpetual waiting room for certain players and he's definitely one of those. I feel like I've put my read on him on hold but if I had to gut feeling I'd favor him over Maven/Moydow at least. Let the record state: I still don't really care for Maven but he's not here to defend himself properly so we're on borrowed time, and like I mentioned above I will probably hammer Moydow over him cause I know Maven a bit more and feel I could have the ability to discern his alignment way better if I'm wrong.

This game is weird, like in an unsettling way. I don't feel there's been much cohesion despite us lynching scum D1, and a lot of players have been taking the approach of delivering content without the thought of how it affects others, like coming in here and proposing an idea without considering others. It's a little selfish and hard to read at times. I didn't bring this up to make a grandeur statement on how I feel Mafia should played, if anything I feel like that's been happening way too often and I'm sorta dying for the tension to relieve where we can just hash something out instead of being merely ideas men.

 

[Z25]

headdesk; my b

How do you feel about Moydow's most recent posts?

Maven: Soup, Shish (2)
Moydow: Kantrip, Vult Redux, Thirdkoopa (3)
Not Voting: Maven, Moydow, Pokechu, Nabe, Fandangox, Z25 (6)

Z25 yooo. I know I'm voting Moydow but if you're feeling Maven more you make your call.

Thanks.

Right now I’m seeking a solid case towards moy, but I’m not fully sure about who to vote. I’m going to re read the thread tomorrow and put down some input then

 

[Thirdkoopa]

This game is weird, like in an unsettling way. I don't feel there's been much cohesion despite us lynching scum D1, and a lot of players have been taking the approach of delivering content without the thought of how it affects others, like coming in here and proposing an idea without considering others. It's a little selfish and hard to read at times. I didn't bring this up to make a grandeur statement on how I feel Mafia should played, if anything I feel like that's been happening way too often and I'm sorta dying for the tension to relieve where we can just hash something out instead of being merely ideas men.

if i'm to be completely honest, it's really frustrating spending 6 hours of my life analyzing this thread last night phase, getting super amped up, and then having everyone treat it like it's lylo or autowin.avi - after those first two day phases and the night phase, I just wanna have some fun, y'know?

i just don't know how to change my content to be better suited to talking so if you have any takes I'm all ears. it's been a while since i've played forum mafia.

Okay, so, a thought that's been in my head that I wanted to ask you all about: I know we've had some discussion of a possible busser on Seph's wagon, but, I'm curious at how scum-fueled my Wagon was. I feel there was at least one person on my Wagon and Nabe and Moy honestly feel like they're it. Their play today hasn't sold me otherwise.

 

[Thirdkoopa]

EBWOP: By "Have some fun" I mean, enjoy some thrilling moments that we'll remember. The biggest lurker got killed and this week is kinda a ghost town. It might be because it's towards the end of the week; i dunno. I'm hoping for a better Day 3.

Okay I was gonna wait for Maven to post his stuff, but I will most likely not be on for tomorrow as I am massively busy at work.

Vote: Nabe

I think one mistake some of you are making here is to put too much focus on who voted what role on pre-game. Admittedly, their pre-game content was the reason why I was town-leaning on Seph and Maven, but it was more because it seemed they had town's best interest at play when discussing the roles rather than what they actually voted for.

Which is why I don't like Nabe's #674, is a big wall that points out some contradictions (namely Third's) but Nabe is just relying on that to go off and not their actual play. Like if it were teh start of day 1 that Nabe post would be beautiful, but it is day 2 and we have a confirmed Scum flip and Nabe's still not really showing any scumhunting intent at all.

How do you feel now about Moy and Maven?

I'll be real here; if we as a town don't like Nabe or Maven's posts tomorrow I think we're in all rights to lynch either of them. I know that everyone from the Seph wagon would be on board with either of those two plays from what I gathered (Bar Vult Redux - I think he's more against the Maven play for today)

 

[Kantrip]

Thanks.

Right now I’m seeking a solid case towards moy, but I’m not fully sure about who to vote. I’m going to re read the thread tomorrow and put down some input then

What soup said about Moydow at the end of D1 + what I said in my recent post is the case I'm basing my read on. What do you think of the points brought up in said posts?

 

[Kantrip]

Not sure about Nabe direction. I feel like I'm in a perpetual waiting room for certain players and he's definitely one of those. I feel like I've put my read on him on hold but if I had to gut feeling I'd favor him over Maven/Moydow at least. Let the record state: I still don't really care for Maven but he's not here to defend himself properly so we're on borrowed time, and like I mentioned above I will probably hammer Moydow over him cause I know Maven a bit more and feel I could have the ability to discern his alignment way better if I'm wrong.

This game is weird, like in an unsettling way. I don't feel there's been much cohesion despite us lynching scum D1, and a lot of players have been taking the approach of delivering content without the thought of how it affects others, like coming in here and proposing an idea without considering others. It's a little selfish and hard to read at times. I didn't bring this up to make a grandeur statement on how I feel Mafia should played, if anything I feel like that's been happening way too often and I'm sorta dying for the tension to relieve where we can just hash something out instead of being merely ideas men.

I disagree, actually.

I think the problem is that town is cohesive out of the players here, for the most part. Day 1 there were two targets settled on fairly quickly. They went back and forth with each other, and practically everyone settled on one side of the fence or the other until deadline when one of the targets was lynched. The only distractions were Fandango staying on Nabe and your Moydow push.

ToDay is much of the same problem, where town is united in a pool of two targets. This time, however, half the playerlist (including said targets) are kind of doing... nothing?

I feel like I'm mostly on the same page with yourself, Koopa, Vult, and Pokechu when he's here. Fandango is going after Nabe still, which I am okay with and don't think that pressure is distracting from other stuff going on toDay.

On the other hand, I feel like I have very little idea the direction that the following players want to go whatsoever:
-Nabe
-Maven
-Moydow
-Z25

 

[Pokechu]

Sorry for being so inactive

Will definitely be able to contribute to the thread today, not as much work

I've been reading up on the thread though so I think I'll have a lot to say

 

[giraffelasergun]

Deadline is in 9 hours and 53 minutes from this post!

Maven: Soup, Shish (2)
Moydow: Kantrip, Vult Redux, Thirdkoopa (3)
Nabe: Fandangox (1)

Not Voting: Maven, Moydow, Pokechu, Nabe, Kantrip,

 

[Deleted member]

i keep missing alerts for this thread i really need to stop watching the discussion thread
I tried rereading Maven89 and Moydow posts but there isn't really anything to go off with them.
Most of Maven's significant posts focus on D0 voting and Moy has, like, 6 posts total?
Rereading back what Thirdkoopa mentioned during Night, I'll double back on Maven as I agree with his thought process on Maven and Nabe being basically mutually exclusive. If one turns up Mafia, the other is pretty much cleared. If one turns out Town, then the other is likely Mafia.
Moydow doesn't really give any direct answers other than a possible connection to Nabe which Maven answers for us anyways.

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

I haven't liked Maven since maybe his first post of the game, but I didn't think that was a direction that was likely to bear fruit given Seph's flip. The air of the Night and the early Day toDay being 'hey it's Maven next' didn't make sense to me, and indicates a real lack of interest in examining prior events, when in reality the Seph lynch looks like it came to scum with their pants down.

I think the case could be made that Maven eventually landed on opposing the Poisoner pick because he's on the scum team that picked Jailer and wanted to look like a good guy when Jailer flipped. But no one is making that case. And you could go on to point out that Maven still didn't commit to not going with Poisoner, making a few posts that suggest his reluctance to leave it off the table. But no one is making that case, and no one has made that case.

In short, it's eerie. That's why I looked back to examine what happened on all sides of the conversation about Poisoner. Next I'm going to examine the people who thought Maven was the sure play and see why that's not the case now (currently on mobile) because I don't think it was an evidence-based approach to begin with. But to say that Poisoner talk isn't relevant, or is a barrel of WIFOM, that indicates that you already know what you're going to find.

More to the point, though, Seph was strongly pursuing a Poisoner pick as his sole focus for Day 0, and he flipped scum, and we know for a fact that scum picked Jailer. So in the case of our flipped scum, we know for a fact he was working towards a goal. Looking into interactions around that is central to the setup, even if every scum member wasn't acting like Seph. I'm naturally suspicious of anyone who says otherwise, because that suggests to me that there's a scum espousing that opinion who knows that they didn't touch Poisoner with a 20-foot-pole.

Because I know it's going to be easy to **** on me before I actually get back to do what I'm doing, I'll say that I think Soup is the best direction toDay. I mentioned that to Vult last Night.

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

I don't know why you take mechanical preference so heavily, I haven't once thought about who voted for what and frankly that's not my style so I don't get why in the first paragraph you state essentially that you think Maven is bad but retrace your steps and continue on by saying some mechanical drivel as to why it doesn't correlate cause X Y Z lol

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

Me personally (as a means to level with you anyways), I don't think anyone in SWF besides like..Overswarm is someone who delves into mechanics. I'm pretty sure if Maven is scum he just acted in the way he felt would be the most townie which may or may not involve picking poisoner. You can see it in Seph where he took the position of advocating Poisoner under the guise of it being a weak role and being able to generate content from it. If I tilt my head, I can maybe understand your points, but they're still things that can be explained or outright ignored in many ways that sound believable.

 

[Fandangox]

EBWOP: By "Have some fun" I mean, enjoy some thrilling moments that we'll remember. The biggest lurker got killed and this week is kinda a ghost town. It might be because it's towards the end of the week; i dunno. I'm hoping for a better Day 3.


How do you feel now about Moy and Maven?

I'll be real here; if we as a town don't like Nabe or Maven's posts tomorrow I think we're in all rights to lynch either of them. I know that everyone from the Seph wagon would be on board with either of those two plays from what I gathered (Bar Vult Redux - I think he's more against the Maven play for today)

Moy is a slot I have null read on, but that is mostly cause that slot has posted nothing at all, and mostly only when prompted. I'd could go for that Lynch, but I think we benefit more from Nabe or Maven Lynch today.

 

[Fandangox]

that being mother****in'

SAID

 

[Fandangox]

I haven't liked Maven since maybe his first post of the game, but I didn't think that was a direction that was likely to bear fruit given Seph's flip. The air of the Night and the early Day toDay being 'hey it's Maven next' didn't make sense to me, and indicates a real lack of interest in examining prior events, when in reality the Seph lynch looks like it came to scum with their pants down.

I think the case could be made that Maven eventually landed on opposing the Poisoner pick because he's on the scum team that picked Jailer and wanted to look like a good guy when Jailer flipped. But no one is making that case. And you could go on to point out that Maven still didn't commit to not going with Poisoner, making a few posts that suggest his reluctance to leave it off the table. But no one is making that case, and no one has made that case.

In short, it's eerie. That's why I looked back to examine what happened on all sides of the conversation about Poisoner. Next I'm going to examine the people who thought Maven was the sure play and see why that's not the case now (currently on mobile) because I don't think it was an evidence-based approach to begin with. But to say that Poisoner talk isn't relevant, or is a barrel of WIFOM, that indicates that you already know what you're going to find.

More to the point, though, Seph was strongly pursuing a Poisoner pick as his sole focus for Day 0, and he flipped scum, and we know for a fact that scum picked Jailer. So in the case of our flipped scum, we know for a fact he was working towards a goal. Looking into interactions around that is central to the setup, even if every scum member wasn't acting like Seph. I'm naturally suspicious of anyone who says otherwise, because that suggests to me that there's a scum espousing that opinion who knows that they didn't touch Poisoner with a 20-foot-pole.

Because I know it's going to be easy to **** on me before I actually get back to do what I'm doing, I'll say that I think Soup is the best direction toDay. I mentioned that to Vult last Night.

Yeah that's gonna be a no from me dawg

 

[Fandangox]

I think the case could be made that Maven eventually landed on opposing the Poisoner pick because he's on the scum team that picked Jailer and wanted to look like a good guy when Jailer flipped. But no one is making that case.

Because a fine textbook definition of wifom at its purest form.

 

[Fandangox]

Like if you are gonna make that argument it should be accompanied with what you think of Maven's actual play, but you have not done that at all.

NOT ONLY THAT

But your previous wall was focused on getting contradictions out Third's and Z25's pre-game votes. Yet you did not push, nor make a case for either of those lynches today.

Nabe also was looklin' at Moy for a lynch, but with Maven being a no-show and the likely lynch today, Nabe starts to suggest we go for that lynch.

Nabe has done nothing generate empty content in an effort to look active, while his actual commitment in the form of pushes or votes come at the form of whatever the most opportunistic lynch is at the moment.

 

[Thirdkoopa]

i keep missing alerts for this thread i really need to stop watching the discussion thread
I tried rereading Maven89 and Moydow posts but there isn't really anything to go off with them.
Most of Maven's significant posts focus on D0 voting and Moy has, like, 6 posts total?
Rereading back what Thirdkoopa mentioned during Night, I'll double back on Maven as I agree with his thought process on Maven and Nabe being basically mutually exclusive. If one turns up Mafia, the other is pretty much cleared. If one turns out Town, then the other is likely Mafia.
Moydow doesn't really give any direct answers other than a possible connection to Nabe which Maven answers for us anyways.

I’m gonna get back to sleep here in a bit (my schedule is whack I’m sick sorry ;-; ) but...

I have these thoughts on Soup/Moy as scum as well. If one’s scum, I’m doubting the other is their buddy. I can elab more when not on mobile.

That said, I’m in a pickle. Maven said he was going to post but didn’t? I’m thinking Maven or Nabe is the play for that since it’ll give us a lot to go on for Day 3, but on the other hand, Moy’s posts read ‘lowest hanging fruit’ and don’t read much better. If we Lynch between Moy and Maven, it almost feels like a guessing game (though, we do have more to work on who’s scum w/ Maven) - not a guessing game of who’s scum, but, guesswork on who will end up contributing more in later phases.

We know not all 3 of them can be scum but one of them I feel is highly likely.

 

[Fandangox]

Where my head is atm:

Town:
Kantrip
Third
Vult

Town-Lean:
Soup

Scum:
Nabe

Scum-Leans
Maven

Null
The rest.

Kantrip was my biggest town-read ending day 1, but I was presented with a new perspective last night and decided to push Kantrip on it. I'm satisfied with the answers, specially considering my last question was a rephrase of my previous one, yet Kantrip didn't lose patience or lash out, when I felt scum Kantrip would have done that.

The slot is also one of the ones whose scumhunting intent is the most obvious and its clear he is trying to move the game along for town to find scum.

At D1 out of Third and Seph I was townleaning on Seph and I thought Third was more likely to be scum, but given the flip and Third's posts in D2 I think Im fine townreading this slot.

Maven Im scum-leaning because while his pre-game has been very good, he's had no presence since that and and he hasn't been bothering to scumhunt at all. Im waiting to see what he has to say about his push today.

On a note for Moy, the slot is basically non-existent, but I don't like that their reason for not liking Vult was that they thought Vult was trying "Too" hard for everyone to look at their lynch option. Yeah sure, how you present a case is important, but I don't think one should ultimately use that as a reason to scumread a slot. A townie should try as hard as they can to get who they think is scum lynched, and thus they should know not to negatively look at someone who is trying to hard for a lynch, specially if that is the basis for your argument and not that you thought the case was weak or misguided.
Which moy never brought up.

Nabe > Maven > Moy is what we should be looking at today.

Pokechu you've disappeared. Where's your head at.

 

[Deleted member]

I’m gonna get back to sleep here in a bit (my schedule is whack I’m sick sorry ;-; ) but...

I have these thoughts on Soup/Moy as scum as well. If one’s scum, I’m doubting the other is their buddy. I can elab more when not on mobile.

That said, I’m in a pickle. Maven said he was going to post but didn’t? I’m thinking Maven or Nabe is the play for that since it’ll give us a lot to go on for Day 3, but on the other hand, Moy’s posts read ‘lowest hanging fruit’ and don’t read much better. If we Lynch between Moy and Maven, it almost feels like a guessing game (though, we do have more to work on who’s scum w/ Maven) - not a guessing game of who’s scum, but, guesswork on who will end up contributing more in later phases.

We know not all 3 of them can be scum but one of them I feel is highly likely.

I wondered what happened with Maven too but he did mention being sick so I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt that something happened irl.
In which case... I'm not really comfortable with lynching him if he doesn't even get a chance to defend himself.

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

Like if you are gonna make that argument it should be accompanied with what you think of Maven's actual play, but you have not done that at all.

Yes, because as I made clear, I don't think that Maven is scum.

Nabe also was looklin' at Moy for a lynch, but with Maven being a no-show and the likely lynch today, Nabe starts to suggest we go for that lynch.

Nope.

I think Soup is the best direction toDay.

 

[Thirdkoopa]

#HBC | Nabe Elab your Soup (previously Fire) case.

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

#HBC | Nabe Elab your Soup (previously Fire) case.

Really? I'm here and typing, dude.

 

[Fandangox]

Yes, because as I made clear, I don't think that Maven is scum.

Then switch then? Like if I didn't think a slot is scum I would not decide to go for that lynch based on something that is entirely wifom.

And yeah my bad on who you were gonna go on for today, but that just shows how more all over the place your stances/pushes are.

Third, Soup, Maven, Z25 which is your strongest scumread and why.

And when I ask why I mean what about their actual play you think makes them scum, ignore the mafia roles nonsense for a little bit and just tell me who do you think is most likely to be scum.