My problem with this game is that I think I'm townreading too many people too easily.
Here's my readslist:
Town: Ryker, Ruy, Ran Laundry
Town-Lean: Orbo, Maven
Null: Zen
Scum: Soup
The **** is that Outburst: Gheb
I like Ryker's entire treatment of me this game. He walked into the thread seeing me doing something he probably considered dumb (and scummy) and proceeded to grill me. However, after he got the responses that he wanted, he pretty much backed off. If that were scum!Ryker, I don't think he'd do that--scum!Ryker is confident he can lynch me and if he sees weakness he will try to take me down. Not only that, I think Ryker's one of the few people in this game that actively scumhunted in D0 even if that wasn't the primary goal of D0--his entire treatment of me is just him gaining a read on me.
I could give the usual ****ty reasons for Ruy being town but I'll just link the specific post that convinced me:
Vanilla games have scum win more than 70% of the time.
even with 2 mafia and 11 town, recorded on other sites 66% win rate for town.
PRs are necessary to balance the game out, why are you in favor of this?
I don't see why scum!Ruy makes that post. His point about Vanilla games is right and against the grain of the thread--most people were opting for the vanilla game at that time; however, I think the most significant point is that he turned that point and used it to question Ran. It convinced me he was actively scumhunting from a townie perspective rather than focusing on opportunistic pushes like scum!Ruy tends to default to.
Ran's the only other person who even appeared to scumhunt on D0 so he's mostly on here for that reason. He looks like typical Ran. I'm not as convinced of him as I am of Ruy and Drew but the fact that he's one of the few that took initiative in D0 to find scum is enough for now. We'll see how he continues.
My town-leans are less certain because it's for weaker reasons. For Maven, it's because of his argument for the Tailor:
We should try to make this a counter pick.
I doubt they would give comparison cop, seer, or double doctor. Bus driver is possible but there's the chance he'd get the mafia to kill themselves. Armored bodyguard seems the most likely to give town, it's what I'd vote for if I was mafia. I really doubt they'd give us an investigation role. Because of that, the tailor might actually be the best pick for us, as it'd be useless for them unless they gave us an investigation role.
That's how all of these scum PR's work except for witch (which we should never give), if our PR dies then their PR has no purpose.
Can anyone see any reason why they would give us an investigation role? I can't, and can't really imagine they would ever do so. Everyone in this game has played multiple games before, so the mafia isn't making noob mistakes. An all vanilla game would be purer, but that works towards us as much as it works towards them.
They'd give us the role because they knew we'd pick a role based on the idea that they didn't give us that one? I find that unlikely, especially since there's zero guarantee that their counter PR would pick their target correctly while our PR could crush the game, giving us a powerful PR because they expect it to manipulate us to give them a counter PR would be poor play, it's only a counter if they both pick the same target, otherwise we just have a powerful PR. It's throwing the ball into our court and relying on 1. us giving them the perfect PR is return and 2. their counter PR being perfect in his actions. Any slip and they would have messed up horribly. It's more likely they gave us the weakest PR they could
Yeh, it's weak, but I think that's an argument of a townie. It's weird and wild and makes little sense but it comes off in the perspective of a crackpot theorist who's hyped up on his idea and thinks it'll win town the game (I know this, I've done it a lot). The rest of Maven's play is lackluster to say the least but maybe improved activity will help on that front.
Meanwhile for Orbo, I just don't see why scum!Orbo posts these:
QUOTE="Orboknown, post: 21336198, member: 193546"]I still want to hear a little bit more from maven/ryker but thats about it[/QUOTE]
I just felt like your back and forth with laundry hadnt ended and wanted to see that play out. And kavens kinda been here kinda not so i wanted to see him come in with a bit more concrete stuff
Ryker, Zen, and I were pretty much ready to move onto D1, he could've said nothing and let the day progress if he were mafia and no one would've likely batted an eye. Instead, he posts these to ensure we have all the information we'll need (which I don't begrudge him for, I would've liked more out of Maven myself, hence why I prodded him to hammer). That earned him some town points from me. Yeh, it's weak, so I'm not willing to call him full town, but at the moment I'm leaning towards that.
I have nothing specific about Zen, I just don't think any of his arguments are ones he wouldn't make as scum, so he's residing in null until I see anything worth trusting or nailing.
I just talked about Soup so I'll skip rehashing that.
I can't get a bead on Gheb's outburst. The rest of his play is lackluster and I still think I would lynch him given that over half the slots in the game are town-leans at least, but that outburst is enough to give me pause. It doesn't make sense given every scenario I could imagine. vt!Gheb wouldn't give so much of a damn to make that type of outburst, he's been worked around by townies and not raised nearly as much of a fuss. pr!Gheb wouldn't risk exposing himself in such a manner for little benefit. scum!Gheb wouldn't stick his neck out so far for something that could backfire on him. Nothing makes sense.
For the rest of Gheb's play, his entire argument for the Tailor wagon is lackluster and the fact that he turned to desperation is what's interesting to me. I'm pondering on that one the most, so let me think about it a bit more.
vote: Soup