Oh right aerial startup. Would they be able to dodge shine grab or double shine by falling through and hit you, or would your shine hit them, assuming they did react perfectly? Also I'd imagine shield drop shine startup is faster than your shine land shine since there's obviously not so much startup on shine as opposed to aerials, right?
They can react to you coming toward them though right? Plus there's the jumpsquat startup to get moving upward in the first place. It might not matter against most opponents but people could train for it. Or do you think that's not feasible?
On Battlefield, Falco lands on the platform the same frame the opponent is actionable, so you can basically consider yourself -1 and extrapolate what is possible from there. Just keep in mind the opponent is in shield and Falco is in shine, so if you want to grab you'd have to spend a frame in jumpsquat while the opponent can shield grab immediately. Shineland shine will beat anything that takes 7 or more frames to come out (unless it's invincible by frame 7 ofc). Grab is 2 frames slower than shine out of shine, and doesn't have invul. It will barely lose to basic OoS options like nair OoS, and be significantly countered by shield drop aerials. Whether the shield drop itself will dodge the shine or grab will depend a lot on character and spacing, but in general I'd say it's pretty difficult to ensure either shine or grab will reach them before they fall too far through the plat. What I think really matters for this tactic is timing and reactability.
I said before Falco's shineland leaves him -1, but for comparison, if you shine on the same frame but JC immediately with a DJ instead of waiting to land, you are -10. Even in high level matches, players aren't usually shield grabbing shine wavelands on reaction, and high level Falcos often shine much earlier than they should. In terms of reactability, there seems to be a mixup that most Falcos or players in general don't think about (I could be wrong though). Simply put, Falco has a fairly wide range of timings to start his initial pressure. Just to give a specific example, let's look at Falco shine WLing vs. a shielding Sheik on a BF side plat.
Shining on frames 4-14 of Falco's FH all result in hitting Sheik's full shield. Of course, most of these aren't very useful because the higher above the plat you go, the laggier your WL will be. If you shine on the 4th airborne frame and DJ WL asap, you will be -9. If you shine on the 9th airborne frame, you will be -13. It seems like shining on frame 4 should be a no brainer, and as a default, I would agree it's the best frame to shine on. However, what happens when your opponent (who certainly can't react to anything under 15 frames) times their OoS option for the shield stun timing of a frame 4 shine and you do the frame 8 shine? Assuming they timed their option within 4 frames of the end of the shield stun they expected, they will still be in shield stun from the frame 8 shine and their attack won't come out.
I mentioned in a previous post shield dropping had a 3-frame buffer, but in true Melee fashion, I found something that contradicted what I had previously thought. According to @jackkenney1 on Twitter (
source), the buffer window varies depending on the
type of shield drop (Sakurai... please have mercy...). Regardless of shield drop buffer, the buffering only ensures they get the shield drop itself, and not the corresponding aerial. Not unlike buffering a jump OoS with the C-stick, the opponent still needs to time their
attack based on your shield stun, which they cannot react to because it's below the human reaction time window (shine only has 10 frames of hitlag+shield stun). Just to give you a visual of how close these shine heights are, I took a quick photo:
Frame 4 (left) vs. Frame 9 (right)
So what does this mean? Simply put, humans can't punish shineland on reaction, and would have to be amazingly quick to even punish shine WL with the fastest options, like shield drop shine which is invul frame 2. They can use Falco's jump as a cue to time their read, but I think what most people do is actually just punish later than usual. I've seen Armada shield grab a Falco's shine WL, and grab is a pretty safe attack because you can option select it (i.e. if you time the grab during shield stun, you just stay shielding). However, I think in general, players ARE reacting to the shine, but that means they are doing their OoS option significantly late to the point that they will have trouble beating shine WL, and it is this type of response that gets absolutely destroyed by shineland grab. If you believe your opponent is actually just anticipating the timing of your shine, then the simplest counter would be to simply FH through them, let them do their grab/shield drop aerial, and you drop back down through the platform on top of them with an aerial of your own. Wavelanding without shining first would also be great if someone is waiting to react to the shine. You only have 10 frames of landing lag, so by the time they react to the fact that you airdodged instead of shined, you will have had plenty of time to get a shine out.
Hopefully someone that is better equipped to analyze gameplay footage frame by frame can take a look at what players do in actuality. I'm sure some players time their option based on the initial jump while others react to the shine and do their option much later. I think knowing the actual stats on this would be very enlightening as to what approach Falcos should have towards pressuring shields on platforms.