Poll: SSB4 Roster Size, What's it gonna be?

[Andinus]

I was gonna say we don't have much time left, but I thought of something.
E3 last year brought us 11 characters (12 if you count Wii Fit Trainer), so he might stay on that number or go a little over.
Let's hope for the latter.
As for me, I'll say high 30s-low 40s

If we get like 12 more characters announced before release, I will probably just be in a stupor of disbelief cuz I'd have to admit we would most likely be getting over 50 characters at that point. At the rate characters have been announced though I'd say 4-5 is what they are gonna reveal to us before release, but if there is any opportunity to announce a bunch, I suppose E3 would be it, I'm not betting on it though. I think we will get 3 at E3 and 2 outside of that.

 

[DustyPumpkin]

There's always the very likely possibility that Sakurai will NOT reveal every newcomer before the release

 

[Chiroz]

I'm guessing two unlockable newcomers and 7-8 unlockable veterans. And you may "feel" 5 is too much but it doesn't mean it won't happen. We are both just speculating, and I am speculating conservatively based on the information I have.
I mean I think if we only have 4-5 new reveals between now and release, it will look quite probable that the roster could be 44 or less.

I know we are just speculating but I am trying to check how your math adds up.


In order for there to be only 7-8 veterans unlockable (counting 5 cuts) that means you need 4-5 veterans shown before release. Excluding Luigi and Sonic who might still be unlockable that would mean you need 2 more veterans shown meaning that there is only 3-4 newcomers left to show.

I am guessing Ike is one of your "potential cuts", does that mean he would get replaced by Chrom, because I strongly doubt FE, which has only gained vast amounts of popularity since Brawl, will go down in representation.

What about Palutena and Pacman, at least for me (in my opinion) they are both basically a shoe in already.

Which by your math means there would only be at most 1 more newcomer left, and there could even be no more newcomers.


I don't mean to sound rude, it just doesn't seem like we already have a of our newcomers announced.



Smash 64 - 8 starting, 4 unlockable

Melee - 15 starting (10 veterans, 5 newcomers), 11 unlockable (2 veterans, 9 newcomers)

Brawl - 25 starter (14 veterans, 8 newcomers), 14 unlockable (8 veterans, 4 newcomers)




I mean, it isn't impossible for us to get 34/10 combo taking into account Luigi, Sonic and Megaman are probably going to be unlockables anyways but I just doubt we only have 1-2 (considering if Pacman and Palutena are in) more newcomers to go and that's it.



Also if more than 5 characters are revealed from here to release then its impossible to have a 34/10 combo and if more than 4 of those are veterans then its impossible to have 5 cuts, while if more than 2 are newcomers then its impossible to only have 1-2 newcomers unlockable.

Basically if Sakurai decides to show nothing from here to E3 but then he reveals 6 characters at E3 (say 4 veterans and 2 newcomers) then all of those numbers basically fall apart.



I myself an expecting at least 3 veterans at E3, I mean he showed 3 in the Nintendo Direct. And at least 2 newcomers to build the hype for the game. Remember that this is the only game Nintendo has to really catch the audience this E3. Mario Kart will already be out, there is no big Mario, Zelda or anything being developed. Unless Nintendo comes out with a surprise (like Zelda Wii U) Smash is all they got. Revealing 2 veterans and 1 newcomer will be a big let down to most, specially after last years E3 and the Nintendo Direct.

 

[Andinus]

I know we are just speculating but I am trying to check how your math adds up.


In order for there to be only 7-8 veterans unlockable (counting 5 cuts) that means you need 4-5 veterans shown before release. Excluding Luigi and Sonic who might still be unlockable that would mean you need 2 more veterans shown meaning that there is only 3-4 newcomers left to show.

I am guessing Ike is one of your "potential cuts", does that mean he would get replaced by Chrom, because I strongly doubt FE, which has only gained vast amounts of popularity since Brawl, will go down in representation.

What about Palutena and Pacman, at least for me (in my opinion) they are both basically a shoe in already.

Which by your math means there would only be at most 1 more newcomer left, and there could even be no more newcomers.


I don't mean to sound rude, it just doesn't seem like we already have a of our newcomers announced.



Smash 64 - 8 starting, 4 unlockable

Melee - 15 starting (10 veterans, 5 newcomers), 11 unlockable (2 veterans, 9 newcomers)

Brawl - 25 starter (14 veterans, 8 newcomers), 14 unlockable (8 veterans, 4 newcomers)




I mean, it isn't impossible for us to get 34/10 combo taking into account Luigi, Sonic and Megaman are probably going to be unlockables anyways but I just doubt we only have 1-2 (considering if Pacman and Palutena are in) more newcomers to go and that's it.



Also if more than 5 characters are revealed from here to release then its impossible to have a 34/10 combo and if more than 4 of those are veterans then its impossible to have 5 cuts, while if more than 2 are newcomers then its impossible to only have 1-2 newcomers unlockable.

Basically if Sakurai decides to show nothing from here to E3 but then he reveals 6 characters at E3 (say 4 veterans and 2 newcomers) then all of those numbers basically fall apart.



I myself an expecting at least 3 veterans at E3, I mean he showed 3 in the Nintendo Direct. And at least 2 newcomers to build the hype for the game. Remember that this is the only game Nintendo has to really catch the audience this E3. Mario Kart will already be out, there is no big Mario, Zelda or anything being developed. Unless Nintendo comes out with a surprise (like Zelda Wii U) Smash is all they got. Revealing 2 veterans and 1 newcomer will be a big let down to most, specially after last years E3 and the Nintendo Direct.

My original roster prediction was 42, but since 44 is what I made for the cut off with this thread, I will take you through my process using a 44 roster.

So we got 29 announced, that leaves me with a max of 15 left. I'm assuming 5-8 cuts (a bare minimum of 3 though).
So lets say 11 unnounced veterans come back that puts us now a 40 with a max of 4 more new comers.
At the rate things have been announced I'm assuming 4-5 more characters before release, so that puts us at 10 unknowns. Of the 4-5 to be announced I say two of them will be new comers and, 3 veterans.

So now we have 10 unknowns( 8 vets and 2 newcomers) to be revealed in the game.

I know it's less than brawl, but remember I'm expecting less, and expecting the roster increases to slow down, based on what sakurai has said, that is why I voted 44 or less.

And yes it might be disappointing (to some) to only hear about 3 people at E3, but if I'm right about the roster size, that is all I think we will get.

I feel the most telling prediction about roster size can probably be made based on how many characters we hear about between now and release, and having just 10 unknowns is not unreasonable if you take to heart what sakurai has said about limitations, balancing issues and adding characters.

Now say we hear about 12 characters between now and release, yeah, I will probably change my position then, cuz even I don't think they would only give us just 3 character surprises.

Also for me, characters are not confirmed until they are confirmed, so I place little value on new comers that lots of people "think" are shoe ins.

 

[Chiroz]

My original roster prediction was 42, but since 44 is what I made for the cut off with this thread, I will take you through my process using a 44 roster.

So we got 29 announced, that leaves me with a max of 15 left. I'm assuming 5-8 cuts (a bare minimum of 3 though).
So lets say 11 unnounced veterans come back that puts us now a 40 with a max of 4 more new comers.
At the rate things have been announced I'm assuming 4-5 more characters before release, so that puts us at 10 unknowns. Of the 4-5 to be announced I say two of them will be new comers and, 3 veterans.

So now we have 10 unknowns( 8 vets and 2 newcomers) to be revealed in the game.

I know it's less than brawl, but remember I'm expecting less, and expecting the roster increases to slow down, based on what sakurai has said, that is why I voted 44 or less.

And yes it might be disappointing (to some) to only hear about 3 people at E3, but if I'm right about the roster size, that is all I think we will get.

I feel the most telling prediction about roster size can probably be made based on how many characters we hear about between now and release, and having just 10 unknowns is not unreasonable if you take to heart what sakurai has said about limitations, balancing issues and adding characters.

Now say we hear about 12 characters between now and release, yeah, I will probably change my position then, cuz even I don't think they would only give us just 3 character surprises.

Also for me, characters are not confirmed until they are confirmed, so I place little value on new comers that lots of people "think" are shoe ins.

Sakurai has said he would try to avoid as many cuts as possible and that it was really important for him to not cut any character because he knows every character has his fanbase and that in the case of a cut (not even confirming there is 1) he was very sorry. Yet you are expecting 5-8 cuts.

Also you say you don't expect 3-4 surprises but that's exactly what your whole argument is about. You ARE saying there are only 3 surprises left even without shoe ins.

You shouldn't give credit to shoe ins as you say but if someone like Ike gets cut you can bet there will be a FE character replacing him and it would have to be someone who could spiritually succeed Ike in order to appease his fans. Only Chrom comes to mind in that sense.

This would leave the number of surprises at 2, 3 max going by your numbers and that is counting E3's surprises which there must be at least 1. So the game will only have 1 surprise or 2 surprises at most by your numbers, unless there are more than 5 cuts.



Having 10 newcomers wouldn't be surprising, but having only 1-2 as a surprise would be (even you said so) and we already have 6 revealed and will definitely get 2 more at the very least before release.

 

[abrinx77]

I think everyone shown at this point is a starter, save for Megaman, Luigi, and Sonic. That's 26 starting characters, and I believe we will get 6-7 more shown before release(something like Pac-Man, Mii, Popular Character(Palutena/Mewtwo/Ridley/K.Rool), Ice Climbers, Meta Knight, Wario). That would put us at 32-33 starters, and with 12 hidden in Brawl(assuming locked characters is a trend that continues), I'm thinking there will be the three locked we know about(putting us at 35-36) and 10-12 more locked. That may be a bit much as far as unlocking characters goes though, just my thoughts. Final roster 45-49 characters. 49 is my absolute optimistic best case scenario, and as mentioned before 49 slots with a random select would look really good on a select screen(not that it holds any merit whatsoever).

 

[Andinus]

Sakurai has said he would try to avoid as many cuts as possible and that it was really important for him to not cut any character because he knows every character has his fanbase and that in the case of a cut (not even confirming there is 1) he was very sorry. Yet you are expecting 5-8 cuts.

Also you say you don't expect 3-4 surprises but that's exactly what your whole argument is about. You ARE saying there are only 3 surprises left even without shoe ins.

You shouldn't give credit to shoe ins as you say but if someone like Ike gets cut you can bet there will be a FE character replacing him and it would have to be someone who could spiritually succeed Ike in order to appease his fans. Only Chrom comes to mind in that sense.

This would leave the number of surprises at 2, 3 max going by your numbers and that is counting E3's surprises which there must be at least 1. So the game will only have 1 surprise or 2 surprises at most by your numbers, unless there are more than 5 cuts.



Having 10 newcomers wouldn't be surprising, but having only 1-2 as a surprise would be (even you said so) and we already have 6 revealed and will definitely get 2 more at the very least before release.

Sorry, I should clarify, when I say surprises I'm including unconfirmed veterans, we don't know about before the game's release,

Having just one 1-2 newcomers unknown before release, if you follow what I believe about what sakurai said about roster limits, sounds perfectly fine.

In regards to cuts, just before sakurai stated he would try to include as many as possible, and apologized in advance for cuts he said this in regards as to whether or not all previous smash bros characters would return..

“I can answer that: no. We don’t have the time to fully recreate every single character who’s been in Smash Bros at this point. Adding new characters is not a simple addition – it’s really multiplication. The amount of work, adding a character is multiplied and becomes bigger and bigger as you go. We can’t because of the amount of work it takes.

This was said just 10 months ago FYI. Now was he talking just about melee characters? (Though mewtwo would be the only one worth bringing back IMO) Brawl? Or I would say most likely.. Both, since the statement smash bros is all inclusive, so I think he is trying to be nice about it, but saying "no" is pretty definitive to me not everyone is coming back, from both melee and brawl, but I would say mainly brawl.

Combine this with his sentiments about reaching roster limits and balancing issues, and I deduce we have recipe for not nearly as expansive of a roster that the past installments have seen.

 

[JeremySama]

If I had to give it a Guess.... I'd say somewhere between 40-45 Characters. I honestly would like to see more, but I'm not one hundred percent certain what the 3ds would be capable of size wise, since both versions have the same characters. Not only that, but Sakurai is bogged for time. There's gonna be cuts.

 

[Andinus]

If I had to give it a Guess.... I'd say somewhere between 40-45 Characters. I honestly would like to see more, but I'm not one hundred percent certain what the 3ds would be capable of size wise, since both versions have the same characters. Not only that, but Sakurai is bogged for time. There's gonna be cuts.

Yeah, like if they end up being delayed, or if they at least we're coming out at the same time maybe a couple more could be likely, but with the 3ds version only a few months away, I don't see how one could hope for like at 50 plus roster. I fear many have set themselves up for disappointment, expecting an expansion close to what previous games have seen.

If the roster is smaller I hope the fans who are bothered by it, will get over it, enjoy the game and help ensure future installments.

 

[RODO]

To people who say R.O.B. is not going to be cut because he has a unique move set...Mewtwo would like to have a word with you. To people saying he will be cut, we don't know that (though I think it's likely). To people who say Game & Watch won't be cut...well duh.

 

[WaddleKing]

If i really have to guess, i'd say 42-48. But Because Sakurai said he's focusing mostly on the gameplay and not on adding characters, i'd say 42-45 is the more likely. Though 45-48 isn't impossible.

 

[Andinus]

If i really have to guess, i'd say 42-48. But Because Sakurai said he's focusing mostly on the gameplay and not on adding characters, i'd say 42-45 is the more likely. Though 45-48 isn't impossible.

I agree. Though my money is on 44 or less characters, 45-48 is not an unreasonable guess, despite the fact I still feel it is very optimistic at this point. E3 could change that though.

 

[YoshiandToad]

I'm sort of leaning on 50 exactly. I don't even know why. I don't think it's going to be more than 50 however. Maybe I have a lot of hope for unlockables or DLC?

 

[majora_787]

I did my own estimation on roster size at one point and it came out to between 47 and 51 characters with an absolute maximum of 54, most definitely no more than that no matter how many newcomers or cuts we get.

Guessing anything from 2-4 cuts, and 12-16 newcomers with the possibility of a returning mewtwo. So yeah, somewhere between "4 cuts, no Mewtwo, 12 newcomers, 47 characters" and "2 cuts, Mewtwo, 16 newcomers, 54 characters".

Also to be clear, as a person who has actually played a number of 3DS games, the "3DS is limiting the size of the roster" thing is some right BS. It might impact what characters are capable of, but not how many we're going to get.

 

[Kind Dedede]

I just wrote down my own numbers and thoughts, so to keep a long description short:

29 announced so far far (7 newcomers)
9-11 returning (Falco/Ganondorf should return but they're still clones. Toon Link should have been axed but I guess that means these guys are staying)
6 people I could see easily being announced come E3 as Newcomers
1 Mewtwo for the lulz

I'm at 45-47 which isn't too bad, considering I'm only at 13 newcomers. In my beliefs they could still add few more to that but I'm definitely not going to hold my breath. I'm just hoping the last people to be announced are not going to be the clones like they did in Brawl with Ness, Ganondorf & Wolf. (Granted Lucas was the clone of Ness)

 

[majora_787]

I just wrote down my own numbers and thoughts, so to keep a long description short:

29 announced so far far (7 newcomers)
9-11 returning (Falco/Ganondorf should return but they're still clones. Toon Link should have been axed but I guess that means these guys are staying)
6 people I could see easily being announced come E3 as Newcomers
1 Mewtwo for the lulz

I'm at 45-47 which isn't too bad, considering I'm only at 13 newcomers. In my beliefs they could still add few more to that but I'm definitely not going to hold my breath. I'm just hoping the last people to be announced are not going to be the clones like they did in Brawl with Ness, Ganondorf & Wolf. (Granted Lucas was the clone of Ness)

We only have 6 newcomers. Charizard isn't a newcomer, he is one of the 39 characters from Brawl.

 

[Cpt.]

I can't really see us getting any less than 46. At least whenever I make a roster. I would like to see 50 though, and this could happen.

It's really anywhere from 46-50 if you think about the logical choices, but you know it's Sakurai.

 

[majora_787]

The way I see it is, Sakurai did say he wanted to avoid cuts and have as many characters in the roster as he could pull off. And another thing to note is, and this is PROBABLY why Sakurai wants to avoid cuts, losing a moveset from Brawl is negating a lot more work than removing a clone from Melee. Assuming Squirtle and Ivysaur are gone, we've freed up the time it takes to make two totally unique veterans, not the time it takes to make a couple of near identical clone characters that use the same body frame.

So I think we'll get around 50 characters give or take 1-2 either way, 48-52 or something like that.

 

[Floor]

I've been set on 40 for a while, but I could see more. But not 50, sadly. Brawl had 35, and Sakurai said hes not focusing on the size that much. I'd say the absolute max is 45. Problem is, so many wants, DEFINATLEY not enough space.

I mean, fans still want Ridley, Mewtwo, Lip, King Rool, Shulk, Chrom, Lucina, Isaac, Palutanea, and ALL the veterans. Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if wee only got 1 of those above(Chrom). There simply has to be cuts and upsets, and some of the remaining space will go to Sakurai's demented ideas, like as happened with Wii Fit Trainer. I never wanted any of those above really, and I like it that way. I won't be upset when they don't make it.

All right, let the hating begin, but no flame wars. A simple "Bad SerPete" will suffice. I am just trying to be realistic and logical with the numbers.

 

[Cpt.]

I've been set on 40 for a while, but I could see more. But not 50, sadly. Brawl had 35, and Sakurai said hes not focusing on the size that much. I'd say the absolute max is 45. Problem is, so many wants, DEFINATLEY not enough space.

I mean, fans still want Ridley, Mewtwo, Lip, King Rool, Shulk, Chrom, Lucina, Isaac, Palutanea, and ALL the veterans. Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if wee only got 1 of those above(Chrom). There simply has to be cuts and upsets, and some of the remaining space will go to Sakurai's demented ideas, like as happened with Wii Fit Trainer. I never wanted any of those above really, and I like it that way. I won't be upset when they don't make it.

All right, let the hating begin, but no flame wars. A simple "Bad SerPete" will suffice. I am just trying to be realistic and logical with the numbers.

Realistic and logical? What? 5 Newcomers? HUH? What? Who? 40? What?

Stop pls

 

[Floor]

Realistic and logical? What? 5 Newcomers? HUH? What? Who? 40? What?

Stop pls

Not saying only 5 newcomers. There will be cuts. Also, this is something I fear is going to happen. There is not much space, and there is already a bad ratio of vets to Newcomers. 29= 6NCs + 23 Vets. no matter what realistic number we reach, there doesn't seem to be much more newcomers. I'd say this trend will stop, and most of the next 11 will be newcomers. Just not everyone's favorites.

 

[Cpt.]

Not saying only 5 newcomers. There will be cuts. Also, this is something I fear is going to happen. There is not much space, and there is already a bad ratio of vets to Newcomers. 29= 6NCs + 23 Vets. no matter what realistic number we reach, there doesn't seem to be much more newcomers. I'd say this trend will stop, and most of the next 11 will be newcomers. Just not everyone's favorites.

I think this is reasonable. Its 49. I can see not having K. Kool, Bandanna, and Lucas, but that would only bring me down to 46. I don't understand how you can get such a low number.

 

[AquaDork1]

I think:
5 cuts (Possibly Squirtle, Ivysaur, Snake, Lucas, & Ike)
15 newcomers (6 confirmed, 6 possibly leaked, and 3 more)

39 - 5 = 34
34 + 15 = 49

So my prediction is 49 character slots & a 'Random' slot to make it an even 50 slots.
Just my thoughts.

 

[Floor]

I think this is reasonable. Its 49. I can see not having K. Kool, Bandanna, and Lucas, but that would only bring me down to 46. I don't understand how you can get such a low number.

Taking a look at this, It appears as if you've only cut two. Wolf and Snake. You understand a possible cut of Lucas, so we'll go with three. Do you really think they will only cut three? All unconfirmed veterans are at make or break right now. Wario, Wolf, Climbers, Falco, Cpt. Falcon, Ganondorf, Jiggly, Lucas, Meta Knight, Ike, R.O.B., Game Watch, and even Ness right now are on the cusp. "Not everyone will make the cut", Sakrai said

I understand, as unlike individuals, we are bound to disagree on certain topics like Ridly, and everyone seems to want a huge roster and not let anyone go. The size of the roster is directly porportional to Sakurai, Not everyone else. And Sakkuria doesn't give.

In other words, Sakurai doesn't seem to give two sh!*s about what we think, probaly becasue the majority of the human race right now is full of idiots. Related to our conversation we are having about Shokio's videos, he made one about unrealistic roster ideas, He says that is why Sakurai won't listen to us. It's cause of the idiots. The roster size won't change based on what will make you sleep better at night. It will change based on if Sakuria likes us or not.

 

[Wanderer from Roseyard]

there is already a bad ratio of vets to Newcomers. 29= 6NCs + 23 Vets

You do seem to be onto something. The marketing team has been maintaining a newcomer-to-total-cast ratio of 20%, probably intentionally. It likely reflects what the final roster will look like.

 

[Andinus]

I've been set on 40 for a while, but I could see more. But not 50, sadly. Brawl had 35, and Sakurai said hes not focusing on the size that much. I'd say the absolute max is 45. Problem is, so many wants, DEFINATLEY not enough space.

I mean, fans still want Ridley, Mewtwo, Lip, King Rool, Shulk, Chrom, Lucina, Isaac, Palutanea, and ALL the veterans. Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if wee only got 1 of those above(Chrom). There simply has to be cuts and upsets, and some of the remaining space will go to Sakurai's demented ideas, like as happened with Wii Fit Trainer. I never wanted any of those above really, and I like it that way. I won't be upset when they don't make it.

All right, let the hating begin, but no flame wars. A simple "Bad SerPete" will suffice. I am just trying to be realistic and logical with the numbers.

No worries dude, there are a lot of people that seem to be allergic to reality on this forum, but no need to be too hard on them, cuz they will be needing their epipen soon enough.

 

[Cpt.]

Taking a look at this, It appears as if you've only cut two. Wolf and Snake. You understand a possible cut of Lucas, so we'll go with three. Do you really think they will only cut three? All unconfirmed veterans are at make or break right now. Wario, Wolf, Climbers, Falco, Cpt. Falcon, Ganondorf, Jiggly, Lucas, Meta Knight, Ike, R.O.B., Game Watch, and even Ness right now are on the cusp. "Not everyone will make the cut", Sakrai said

I understand, as unlike individuals, we are bound to disagree on certain topics like Ridly, and everyone seems to want a huge roster and not let anyone go. The size of the roster is directly porportional to Sakurai, Not everyone else. And Sakkuria doesn't give.

I don't have wolf on here, but I don't think he'll be cut. I'd understand if he is, but I still don't think he will be.

Ice Climbers, Falco, Game and Watch will not be cut. There is zero chance. They have been in two games. If you have been in two Smash Bros games, then Sakurai would have put in a lot of work to get you there and he must think you are important. There is absolutely no reason to cut a character like this. Could it happen. Maybe. Will it happen? No.

Jiggs, Cpt. Falcon and Ness have been in three games. Nuff said. Sakurai clearly sees them as Nintendo all-stars.

Ganondorf? Ganondorf is on the cusp? He is the king of evil. The main villain of LoZ. There are already 4 Zelda reps and all of them are good guys. Sheik is only from Oot. There is a ZERO percent chance that Ganondorf will be cut. He moveset might be altered, but that is not the same thing. I'm not even sayiing this as a baised person. It would just be absurd to cut a main villain.

Wario won't get cut either. He is one of few individual reps and is related to the Mario series. He is super unique also. No reason to cut him.

Meta Knight is super important to the Kirby series. Sakurai worked on the kirby series. He is by far an amazing rep for Kirby. He won't get cut. + he has waaaaay to big of a fan base.

R.O.B. could get cut, but I doubt they would cut any retro. Its like slapping yourself in the face.

So out of that I could possibly see Wario or R.O.B., but I think it very unlikely. So I'll stay at a 46 character minimum.

 

[Floor]

I don't have wolf on here, but I don't think he'll be cut. I'd understand if he is, but I still don't think he will be.

Ice Climbers, Falco, Game and Watch will not be cut. There is zero chance. They have been in two games. If you have been in two Smash Bros games, then Sakurai would have put in a lot of work to get you there and he must think you are important. There is absolutely no reason to cut a character like this. Could it happen. Maybe. Will it happen? No.

Jiggs, Cpt. Falcon and Ness have been in three games. Nuff said. Sakurai clearly sees them as Nintendo all-stars.

Ganondorf? Ganondorf is on the cusp? He is the king of evil. The main villain of LoZ. There are already 4 Zelda reps and all of them are good guys. Sheik is only from Oot. There is a ZERO percent chance that Ganondorf will be cut. He moveset might be altered, but that is not the same thing. I'm not even sayiing this as a baised person. It would just be absurd to cut a main villain.

Wario won't get cut either. He is one of few individual reps and is related to the Mario series. He is super unique also. No reason to cut him.

Meta Knight is super important to the Kirby series. Sakurai worked on the kirby series. He is by far an amazing rep for Kirby. He won't get cut. + he has waaaaay to big of a fan base.

R.O.B. could get cut, but I doubt they would cut any retro. Its like slapping yourself in the face.

So out of that I could possibly see Wario or R.O.B., but I think it very unlikely. So I'll stay at a 46 character minimum.

I've already edited that quoted post to add more, but about Ganondorf. They have four reps in LoZ. The max seems to be five now with mario's roselina and luma. So let me ask you... Add Ganondorf becasue he is bad and we seem to want a villian in each franchise for no reason, or keep the roster fresh with someone in Skyward Sword? What about the villian in that game, Ghiriam? There are pros and cons to each decision.

I'm not saying ALL of them will be cut. Jiggs, Falcon, and Ness are the only three I would put money on making it. Only because they have three games.

And Meta Knights fan base was largly proportional to his Overpowering gameplay. This, of course, is refering to http://supersmashbros.wikia.com/wiki/Tier_list
and several other sites giving him a perfect ranking.

 

[Cpt.]

I've already edited that quoted post to add more, but about Ganondorf. They have four reps in LoZ. The max seems to be five now with mario's roselina and luma. So let me ask you... Add Ganondorf becasue he is bad and we seem to want a villian in each franchise for no reason, or keep the roster fresh with someone in Skyward Sword? What about the villian in that game, Ghiriam? There are pros and cons to each decision.

Ganondorf is the only sensible 5th rep. He has the final of the three triforce pieces. TRIFORCE! You know that thing that the LoZ is based around. He has been in the most LoZ games by far to any other villain. The next most popular one is vaati and many people don't know who that is.

I don't understand "a villain in each franchise for no reason". Smash is for Nintendo All-Stars. Ganondorf is at least one of the top 15 most important/well known Nintendo characters.

1. Mario
2. Pikachu
3. Link
4. Bowser
5. Peach
6. Zelda
7. Samus
8. DK?
9. Ganondorf

Ghiriam, on the other hand, has been in one game, is faaaaaaar less popular, NOT EVEN THE MAIN VILLAIN OF HIS GAME, I don't even want to continue after that one....

I'm not saying ALL of them will be cut. Jiggs, Falcon, and Ness are the only three I would put money on making it. Only because they have three games.

I'd say the chance of any original 12 getting cut is about a 1% chance.

And Meta Knights fan base was largly proportional to his Overpowering gameplay. This, of course, is refering to http://supersmashbros.wikia.com/wiki/Tier_list
and several other sites giving him a perfect ranking.

Even so Meta Knight is still the 2nd/3rd most iconic character from the Kirby series.

 

[BombKirby]

I think this is reasonable. Its 49. I can see not having K. Kool, Bandanna, and Lucas, but that would only bring me down to 46. I don't understand how you can get such a low number.

I have given some thought about Bandana Dee being a possibility. One reason they could have replaced Dedede's Waddle Dees was so you wouldn't get confused with the playable Waddle Dee. Although Bandana Dee alone sounds pretty tame/boring. I could see them pulling off a "Waddle Dee Army" character where you play as Bandana Dee and summon/command Waddle Dees for each of his attacks. They'd simply be animations not like Nana, but it'd give you a sense of a "swarm-like" character.

 

[Kind Dedede]

We only have 6 newcomers. Charizard isn't a newcomer, he is one of the 39 characters from Brawl.

Counted Sonic as a Newcomer and not Third party, whoops lol.

 

[Floor]

Ganondorf is the only sensible 5th rep. He has the final of the three triforce pieces. TRIFORCE! You know that thing that the LoZ is based around. He has been in the most LoZ games by far to any other villain. The next most popular one is vaati and many people don't know who that is.

I don't understand "a villain in each franchise for no reason". Smash is for Nintendo All-Stars. Ganondorf is at least one of the top 15 most important/well known Nintendo characters.

1. Mario
2. Pikachu
3. Link
4. Bowser
5. Peach
6. Zelda
7. Samus
8. DK?
9. Ganondorf

Ghiriam, on the other hand, has been in one game, is faaaaaaar less popular, NOT EVEN THE MAIN VILLAIN OF HIS GAME, I don't even want to continue after that one....



I'd say the chance of any original 12 getting cut is about a 1% chance.



Even so Meta Knight is still the 2nd/3rd most iconic character from the Kirby series.

Keep this in mind. Roy was popular. Mewtwo was and still is Popular. Who makes and who doesn't isn't dependent on populartity all that much. A lot of it is promotion and sales. Sakurai is a buisnessman. He focuses on money, so he'l promote a game with characters fromm the franchise. If he wants more sales ands attention to Skyward Sword, he'll include Ghiriam. He included a lesser known character, Greninja, rather than popularity, Mewtwo. How is Mewttwo, the allegedly most popular pokemon, going to be put in if the cap is 5 and we still have Jiggs? Or, how is Jiggs going to make it past mewtwo? No matter who wins there, a more popular character is losing a spot for the sake of promotion.

He is promoting X and Y in this way. This will lead to more sales, which will make Sakurai happy. The world is all about money, not making a mewtwo fan or a Jigg supporter happy. The roster size depends on Sakurai's potential buisness plans.

If a pokemon is losing its spot for Greninja's promotion, why can't we see that for Ganondorf? That list means little in this regard. Besides, there are more staples on there, like Marth, Fox, Yoshi, Luigi, and in today's world, Pit. He's been getting attention.

More on the cuts, I feel like we would have seen some of these supposedly "obvious" decisions already if they were to be confirmed. Why would he confirm Diddy and Toon Link when he could stall with a more obvious choice like Jiggs , Cpt Falcon, or ganondof? The more time that passes, the lesser chance these have of making it. The only way to prevent this is to increase the roster size, which Sakurai flat out said wouldn't be the focus.

 

[Second Power]

@ Floor

A. When did Sakurai ever say Mario was the cap? Brawl had six pokemon reps (Pikachu, Jiggs, Lucario, Char, Ivy, Squirtle). Source or it not's real.
B. I'd make the opposite claim with Greninja's inclusion. It was to attract pokemon fans to SSB, not the reverse. Have you seen XY's sales? They hit 12 million (source: http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2014-04-07-pokemon-x-and-y-sales-hit-12m-copies). You think they need help?
C. If the above theory is correct, since SS was nowhere near XY, we can safely conclude Ghirahim won't get in for the same reason as Greninja.

Keep in mind that B and C is my opinion/theory.

 

[Floor]

@ Floor

A. When did Sakurai ever say Mario was the cap? Brawl had six pokemon reps (Pikachu, Jiggs, Lucario, Char, Ivy, Squirtle). Source or it not's real.
B. I'd make the opposite claim with Greninja's inclusion. It was to attract pokemon fans to SSB, not the reverse. Have you seen XY's sales? They hit 12 million (source: http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2014-04-07-pokemon-x-and-y-sales-hit-12m-copies). You think they need help?
C. If the above theory is correct, since SS was nowhere near XY, we can safely conclude Ghirahim won't get in for the same reason as Greninja.

Keep in mind that B and C is my opinion/theory.

A is just a very educated guess. If the cap was six, we'd get six from mario, pokemon, legend of zelda, maybe four or five from others to reduce the shock of "six from these three franchises, but only three from the others?!" It'd be too heavy with mario and these others if they had six and everyone else got 3 or 4.

No matter what, I still consider Pkmn Trainer as one, like zelda/sheik and Samuses. I don't care that "they are technically two people". When you chose pkmn trainer, you got all three. That is one character in my books. The source I use (http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?name=pokemon) says 10.77 million For X/Y. (Item 8 for easy look up). I though Skyward Sword did well, but http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?name=skyward sword says 3.74 million. that shocked me.

My previous statement about promotion stands true for my brother and I. Smash brought me in to Fire Emblem with Marth and Roy. Now, FE is my FAVORITE series by nintendo 2nd or 3rd in all (beaten by Halo and or Elder Scrolls). I'm sure others could agree, but prehaps that claim is true for some and not others.

From Sakurai's stand point, he'd be better off getting people to buy an entire franchise (like I did with FE) than to get someone to buy just one game (SSB).

 

[Second Power]

@ Floor

(Preface this whole thing with "if logic ever entered Smash development". )

You have to look at them as characters as opposed to slots that get filled. A sixth slot for Mario would go to Toad or Bowser Junior, both of whom are usually supporting characters and therefore not worthy of recieving moveset when the roster is approaching a limit (Rosalina is an outlier, I'll admit). Similarly, Zelda has Link (young and teenage), Zelda, Gannon as recurring major characters. I can't really explain Sheik's inclusion other than bias. There's no one else who isn't either a supporting character (Impa) or oneshot (Ghirahim) to get in.

On Fire Emblem, I would never have gotten into the series without Smash either. However, I don't think it's a fair analogy. FE never received a western release prior to smash, despite being very big in Japan. Pokemon and Zelda both have massive sales figures (admittedly, I had no idea SS's was so high, was expecting like three quarters of million at best (not to say I don't like it, I consider it to be one of the better LoZ games, but it didn't seem like anyone else did)), there really isn't any need to promote them further. Maybe Zelda among Japanese, but eh... If Sakurai really wanted to do that, it'd be more effective to go a la Roy given SS's release being long past.

And, lastly, Sakurai has referred to Brawl's roster being 39. I can't find the source, but I'm sure someone here has it saved. And it makes a lot more sense, becuase even if you refer to Zelda + Sheik as one character, they still required the resources and work of two. Look at it from this perspective: He was willing to put in the work for 6 pokemon movesets in brawl, why go fewer?

 

[majora_787]

Yeah, Sakurai did equate a moveset to one character (making Sheik/Zelda 2, Samus/Zamos 2, and Pokemon Trainer 3). So Pokemon would have had 6 characters, and Mario would have had 4 in Brawl.

SSB4 could very well have 5 for Mario and 6 for Pokemon. It's as many as either series has ever had.

 

[Cpt.]

Keep this in mind. Roy was popular. Mewtwo was and still is Popular. Who makes and who doesn't isn't dependent on populartity all that much. A lot of it is promotion and sales. Sakurai is a buisnessman. He focuses on money, so he'l promote a game with characters fromm the franchise. If he wants more sales ands attention to Skyward Sword, he'll include Ghiriam. He included a lesser known character, Greninja, rather than popularity, Mewtwo. How is Mewttwo, the allegedly most popular pokemon, going to be put in if the cap is 5 and we still have Jiggs? Or, how is Jiggs going to make it past mewtwo? No matter who wins there, a more popular character is losing a spot for the sake of promotion.

He is promoting X and Y in this way. This will lead to more sales, which will make Sakurai happy. The world is all about money, not making a mewtwo fan or a Jigg supporter happy. The roster size depends on Sakurai's potential buisness plans.

If a pokemon is losing its spot for Greninja's promotion, why can't we see that for Ganondorf? That list means little in this regard. Besides, there are more staples on there, like Marth, Fox, Yoshi, Luigi, and in today's world, Pit. He's been getting attention.

I don't really think any previous pokemon lost it's spot due to Greninja joining, I think that Greninja just got the open spot. Then again we don't even know how many spots there are if there was a set limit to begin with.

Anyways we can't see this for Ganondorf because he is faaar more important than either Sheik or Toon Link and they both got announced already. There is just no way Sakurai would cut Ganondorf over one of them.

More on the cuts, I feel like we would have seen some of these supposedly "obvious" decisions already if they were to be confirmed. Why would he confirm Diddy and Toon Link when he could stall with a more obvious choice like Jiggs , Cpt Falcon, or ganondof? The more time that passes, the lesser chance these have of making it. The only way to prevent this is to increase the roster size, which Sakurai flat out said wouldn't be the focus.

Who really knows why he put out T. Link and Diddy sooner than later.

I don't see time passing by as having any significance toward weather Jiggs, Cpt., Ganondorf are in the game. The more the time passes, the more the time passes. It doesn't reduce their chances at all. You be wise to realize that. The only thing that affects their chances are the amount of reps already confirmed to be in the game and who those reps are. He may not even reveal Ganon/Jiggs/Falcon at all and we'll just see them in Smash 4 when we get it.

 

[majora_787]

Ganondorf is always a post-release character, so we'll have to wait for his design tweaks unfortunately. But yeah he's completely safe, regardless of all of the people who want him to be replaced by Ghirahim or Demise for some bizarre unfathomable reason.

 

[MAGMIS]

I know we are just speculating but I am trying to check how your math adds up.


In order for there to be only 7-8 veterans unlockable (counting 5 cuts) that means you need 4-5 veterans shown before release. Excluding Luigi and Sonic who might still be unlockable that would mean you need 2 more veterans shown meaning that there is only 3-4 newcomers left to show.

I am guessing Ike is one of your "potential cuts", does that mean he would get replaced by Chrom, because I strongly doubt FE, which has only gained vast amounts of popularity since Brawl, will go down in representation.

What about Palutena and Pacman, at least for me (in my opinion) they are both basically a shoe in already.

Which by your math means there would only be at most 1 more newcomer left, and there could even be no more newcomers.


I don't mean to sound rude, it just doesn't seem like we already have a of our newcomers announced.



Smash 64 - 8 starting, 4 unlockable

Melee - 15 starting (10 veterans, 5 newcomers), 11 unlockable (2 veterans, 9 newcomers)

Brawl - 25 starter (14 veterans, 8 newcomers), 14 unlockable (8 veterans, 4 newcomers)




I mean, it isn't impossible for us to get 34/10 combo taking into account Luigi, Sonic and Megaman are probably going to be unlockables anyways but I just doubt we only have 1-2 (considering if Pacman and Palutena are in) more newcomers to go and that's it.



Also if more than 5 characters are revealed from here to release then its impossible to have a 34/10 combo and if more than 4 of those are veterans then its impossible to have 5 cuts, while if more than 2 are newcomers then its impossible to only have 1-2 newcomers unlockable.

Basically if Sakurai decides to show nothing from here to E3 but then he reveals 6 characters at E3 (say 4 veterans and 2 newcomers) then all of those numbers basically fall apart.



I myself an expecting at least 3 veterans at E3, I mean he showed 3 in the Nintendo Direct. And at least 2 newcomers to build the hype for the game. Remember that this is the only game Nintendo has to really catch the audience this E3. Mario Kart will already be out, there is no big Mario, Zelda or anything being developed. Unless Nintendo comes out with a surprise (like Zelda Wii U) Smash is all they got. Revealing 2 veterans and 1 newcomer will be a big let down to most, specially after last years E3 and the Nintendo Direct.

MY predictions for the next newcomers and returning characters are:

U CAN JUST READ MY CHAR LIST WITHOUT THE REASONS. IF U NEED ONE I GAVE U.

THE RETURNING CHARACTERS 90% SURE
1. Captain Falcon - We saw Samurai Goro @ Nintendo direct.
2. Ice Climbers - We saw the Polar Bear @ smash run video. They have Rosalina and Luma working on 3ds.
3. Wario - They still have Wario assist trophy and added a new one which is Ashley.
4. Ness - There was a pic of the day where it showed Earthbound items.
Also if u add all these 4 returning char the roster will have 21 returning char just like brawl did excluding third party char like sonic.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7 NEWCOMERS + 5 newcomers already shown to us
- WFT - Villager - LIttle mac - Greninja - Rosalina and Luma
excluding Megaman third party character. Which are 12 Newcomers like brawl had and Melee. Excluding (Wii fit Trainer & Mii) because I think he had to add those characters to represent them.

- Basing off a rumor from the same leaker who mentioned before the reveal of these characters which are WFT, Megaman, Villager, Little mac. Leaving Pac-man and Mii. The leaker then mentioned those 4 characters stated below before Nintendo direct (shulk to Chorus kids).
- at the bottom of each character quiz shown u will see 7 shadowed characters that's already in the game but could hint that there will be 7 newcomers. Sakurai did mention in a interview that he can't add a lot more characters than brawl did. Therefore
21 + 14 = 33 Characters.
+ 2 NEW third-party char (megaman & pacman) = 35 Total.
+ 2 not planned char by sakurai just added to represent parts of Nintendo ( Wii fit train & Mii) = 37 Total.

1. Shulk - Very popular "Xenoblade".

2. Palutena - It seems Palutena has been hinted quite a lot like Psuedo-Palutena Quiz trophy shown @ direct, also an image leak of her being in the 3ds version of the game.

3. Chrom - Seems pretty obvious and Tiki from fire emblem Quiz Trophy shown @ direct.

4. Chorus Kids from Rhythm Heaven- In my eyes looks like a replacement for Mr. Game and Watch. The leaker did know about W Fit Train being in the game. Therefore he could be right about this character too. Plus Sakurai <3 surprising us whether its good or bad.

- Based off the Quiz Trophy including Chrom and Palutena.

5. Anthony Higgs - Sakurai been representing Metroid Other M too much. So I'm wondering is he just doing that because his trying to add another character into the Metroid series. Also that King Ki Hunter Quiz Trophy shown @ direct. In addition they added the same stage where Anthony higgs fell in the game Metroid Other M against Ridley while trying to save Samus. Also this char feels like a replacement for Snake.

6. Ganondorf -Will have new moves making him a newcomer because captain falcon can be customized with custom move sets to become playable as brawl/melee version of ganon. Therefore i think that toon ganon will join which makes sense of why he added toon link even though his a clone of link and can be made through custom move sets. him because of the Fi Quiz trophy shown @ direct.

- My own guess and it could be either or,

7 . Takamaru from Nazo no Murasame - Sakurai did mention of adding more retro characters. His sort of the East vs West going on with Little mac.
OR

7. Lark or Goose from Pilotwings 64 - In the game they have Pilotwing 64 item and stage and the symbol.


2 Last Characters

The leaker mentioned those 2 along with Megaman, WFT, Villager, Little mac before e3 2013.
These aren't included as the seven NEWCOMERS because of excluding third party characters and Mii.

8. Pac-man - Seems like it because Namco is helping developing the game and they had assist trophies from a Namco game.

9. Mii - I'm hoping this isn't true and could possibly be just an extra slot. Mii may not even be playable in online.

 

[Cpt.]

MY predictions for the next newcomers and returning characters are:

U CAN JUST READ MY CHAR LIST WITHOUT THE REASONS. IF U NEED ONE I GAVE U.

THE RETURNING CHARACTERS 90% SURE
1. Captain Falcon - We saw Samurai Goro @ Nintendo direct.
2. Ice Climbers - We saw the Polar Bear @ smash run video. They have Rosalina and Luma working on 3ds.
3. Wario - They still have Wario assist trophy and added a new one which is Ashley.
4. Ness - There was a pic of the day where it showed Earthbound items.
Also if u add all these 4 returning char the roster will have 21 returning char just like brawl did excluding third party char like sonic.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7 NEWCOMERS + 5 newcomers already shown to us
- WFT - Villager - LIttle mac - Greninja - Rosalina and Luma
excluding Megaman third party character. Which are 12 Newcomers like brawl had and Melee. Excluding (Wii fit Trainer & Mii) because I think he had to add those characters to represent them.

- Basing off a rumor from the same leaker who mentioned before the reveal of these characters which are WFT, Megaman, Villager, Little mac. Leaving Pac-man and Mii. The leaker then mentioned those 4 characters stated below before Nintendo direct (shulk to Chorus kids).
- at the bottom of each character quiz shown u will see 7 shadowed characters that's already in the game but could hint that there will be 7 newcomers. Sakurai did mention in a interview that he can't add a lot more characters than brawl did. Therefore
21 + 14 = 33 Characters.
+ 2 NEW third-party char (megaman & pacman) = 35 Total.
+ 2 not planned char by sakurai just added to represent parts of Nintendo ( Wii fit train & Mii) = 37 Total.

1. Shulk - Very popular "Xenoblade".

2. Palutena - It seems Palutena has been hinted quite a lot like Psuedo-Palutena Quiz trophy shown @ direct, also an image leak of her being in the 3ds version of the game.

3. Chrom - Seems pretty obvious and Tiki from fire emblem Quiz Trophy shown @ direct.

4. Chorus Kids from Rhythm Heaven- In my eyes looks like a replacement for Mr. Game and Watch. The leaker did know about W Fit Train being in the game. Therefore he could be right about this character too. Plus Sakurai <3 surprising us whether its good or bad.

- Based off the Quiz Trophy including Chrom and Palutena.

5. Anthony Higgs - Sakurai been representing Metroid Other M too much. So I'm wondering is he just doing that because his trying to add another character into the Metroid series. Also that King Ki Hunter Quiz Trophy shown @ direct. In addition they added the same stage where Anthony higgs fell in the game Metroid Other M against Ridley while trying to save Samus. Also this char feels like a replacement for Snake.

6. Ganondorf -Will have new moves making him a newcomer because captain falcon can be customized with custom move sets to become playable as brawl/melee version of ganon. Therefore i think that toon ganon will join which makes sense of why he added toon link even though his a clone of link and can be made through custom move sets. him because of the Fi Quiz trophy shown @ direct.

- My own guess and it could be either or,

7 . Takamaru from Nazo no Murasame - Sakurai did mention of adding more retro characters. His sort of the East vs West going on with Little mac.
OR

7. Lark or Goose from Pilotwings 64 - In the game they have Pilotwing 64 item and stage and the symbol.


2 Last Characters

The leaker mentioned those 2 along with Megaman, WFT, Villager, Little mac before e3 2013.
These aren't included as the seven NEWCOMERS because of excluding third party characters and Mii.

8. Pac-man - Seems like it because Namco is helping developing the game and they had assist trophies from a Namco game.

9. Mii - I'm hoping this isn't true and could possibly be just an extra slot. Mii may not even be playable in online.

Interesting theories on the character. You bring up some nice points especially about Higgs, but we will definitely have at least 45 characters not 37.