Poll: SSB4 Roster Size, What's it gonna be?

[Andinus]

I'm really thinking 48-52. Somewhere in there depending on DLC. Sakurai clearly wants to demonstrate the Wii U's power and I honestly doubt at this time that there are any cuts (From Brawl, at least. I don't see Mewtwo or Roy coming back as much as I'd love that). Yes, Squirtle and Ivysaur included.

But Sakurai already said not everyone from brawl is coming back. I think to be realistic we have to assume a minimum of 3 cuts.

 

[DaDavid]

I think you guys are underestimating the amount of cuts we'll get. Snake, ROB, Lucas, Wolf, Ike, Squirtle, and Ivysaur all are likely to be cut. That brings Brawl's 39 down to 32. Add in the 6 newcomers we have so far and you get 38. We'll probably get two to three more newcomers. That puts our total around 40.

I've seen little to nothing to legitimately suggest that most of those are likely to be cut. Ivy, Squirtle, and Snake are pretty much the 3 more than likely ones right now. The others seem to be predicated on some pattern that doesn't exist or an assumed understanding of Sakurai's priorities.

EDIT: @ Andinus I'll have to check, but I'm like 99% sure those words never came out of his lips. I know which interview you're referring to, but what I remember him saying is that not all characters would be coming back, which in context seemed more like him saying that Melee cuts weren't returning. He did preemptively apologize for any cuts that might have to be made, but he very clearly expressed an aversion to them.

 

[PKNinja95]

45-50 Characters for me.

Anything below 45 is disappointing and might as well release it in June if that's the case.

Anything above 50 is just wishful thinking. The 3DS version is,coming out in a few months(2-4) so I don't see 50+ happening.

So 45-49(50) seems the most logical

 

[ProjectAngel]

But Sakurai already said not everyone from brawl is coming back. I think to be realistic we have to assume a minimum of 3 cuts.

No, he didn't. Sakurai stated that he didn't like to cut characters, but may resort to it if need be. In the event that he ever did, he pretty much apologized in advance of any possible cuts.

Given the sheer size of the development team and how much stuff was done in such a short amount of time, there might not be much to cut. Depending on when in the summertime the 3DS version will be released, there's still a lot to be done.

My guess? Around 45-50 characters, unlockables included.

 

[Andinus]

No, he didn't. Sakurai stated that he didn't like to cut characters, but may resort to it if need be. In the event that he ever did, he pretty much apologized in advance of any possible cuts.

Given the sheer size of the development team and how much stuff was done in such a short amount of time, there might not be much to cut. Depending on when in the summertime the 3DS version will be released, there's still a lot to be done.

My guess? Around 45-50 characters, unlockables included.

Well he did, just before he apologized like you said.

This is what he said in regards to if all characters would return.

Designer Masahiro Sakurai explained the reason when NowGamer asked if all the previous characters will return.

"I can answer that: no. We don’t have the time to fully recreate every single character who’s been in Smash Bros at this point," Sakurai explained.

Which can mean Melee and Brawl characters.

 

[WritersBlah]

Going with popular opinion on this one. Brawl's roster was 39 characters. Even with the 3DS's lower memory capacity, we've already gotten six newcomers announced for Smash 4. Even with the inevitable cuts to the roster, I think a number any less than 45 is just a result of pessimism. Melee introduced 14 newcomers, and Brawl introduced 16 while getting rid of 4 (5 if you count Young Link.) Following that trend, let's play devil's advocate for a second and say we're only getting a total of 11 newcomers and we're getting rid of 5 veterans. That's still 45 characters in total. A pretty solid number if you ask me.

 

[the smash nerd]

um...

45-50 Characters for me.

Anything below 45 is disappointing and might as well release it in June if that's the case.

Anything above 50 is just wishful thinking. The 3DS version is,coming out in a few months(2-4) so I don't see 50+ happening.

So 45-49(50) seems the most logical

Yes, 45-49 on the roster

 

[Morbi]

I have been an advocate of the 50 character theory for a while. It is a 25% increase in roster, it offers a reasonable (as in less than Brawl; possibly less than Melee) amount of newcomers, and the number is nice and even (Dat OCD)! These games only release once every 5 years or so (as of current) so the roster had better be quite a ways larger than 44 characters.

 

[TheTuninator]

45-50 Characters for me.

Anything below 45 is disappointing and might as well release it in June if that's the case.

Anything above 50 is just wishful thinking. The 3DS version is,coming out in a few months(2-4) so I don't see 50+ happening.

So 45-49(50) seems the most logical

SSB4 will have had roughly as much development time as Brawl by the summer, and Brawl jumped the total roster size by 13 even with 5 cuts. A total increase of 13 over Brawl puts SSB4's roster at 52.

I really don't see how expecting 50+ characters is at all unreasonable.

 

[Morbi]

SSB4 will have had roughly as much development time as Brawl by the summer, and Brawl jumped the total roster size by 13 even with 5 cuts. A total increase of 13 over Brawl puts SSB4's roster at 52.

I really don't see how expecting 50+ characters is at all unreasonable.

He is probably alluding to that article in which Sakurai asserts that 39 characters is around the amount that he believes to be "feasible". Hence, some believe that an 11 character increase wouldn't be interpreted as reasonable by Sakurai.

http://www.vg247.com/2012/07/03/super-smash-bros-roster-has-hit-the-limit-of-whats-feasible/

 

[PKNinja95]

Fair point. But I don't see it happening for some reason. That's just me though lol.

 

[Andinus]

SSB4 will have had roughly as much development time as Brawl by the summer, and Brawl jumped the total roster size by 13 even with 5 cuts. A total increase of 13 over Brawl puts SSB4's roster at 52.

I really don't see how expecting 50+ characters is at all unreasonable.

Because of what sakurai has said about the amount in brawl starting to reach the upper limit of what is feasible.

It's gotta start slowing down at some point. In fact I'm predicting two versions of smash in the future, say a handheld version and a console version, each with about 40-45 characters, maybe some overlap, but still lots of character exclusives.

 

[DaDavid]

Well he did, just before he apologized like you said.

This is what he said in regards to if all characters would return.

Designer Masahiro Sakurai explained the reason when NowGamer asked if all the previous characters will return.

"I can answer that: no. We don’t have the time to fully recreate every single character who’s been in Smash Bros at this point," Sakurai explained.

Which can mean Melee and Brawl characters.

http://mynintendonews.com/2013/06/2...e-to-bring-all-characters-back-to-smash-bros/

“So we’re not going to cut characters out of the way, we’re going to put in as many characters as we can, we really want to do that, because it’s good for the fans and good for all of us. But in the event that we do have to cut some characters, I’d like to apologise in advance to those fans.”

That statement is more telling in my opinion in regards to Brawl's roster. What you quoted seems (when compared against this one) to refer more to Melee cuts.

And again, that "feasible" quote was not specifically in reference to Brawl. Depending on when it was stated, it was likely in reference to the roster for these games, which would have been determined already.

 

[TheTuninator]

Because of what sakurai has said about the amount in brawl starting to reach the upper limit of what is feasible.

It's gotta start slowing down at some point. In fact I'm predicting two versions of smash in the future, say a handheld version and a console version, each with about 40-45 characters, maybe some overlap, but still lots of character exclusives.

People put far too much weight on that years-old statement, particularly when Sakurai is known to revise his positions (see: Villager).

Could ~45 characters be the cap? Sure. But, it also could not be. As was just posted, Sakurai has also made statements indicating that he wants to fit as many characters as he can.

Smash with exclusive characters would be horrendous, and I hope that the series never takes that path.

 

[Andinus]

People put far too much weight on that years-old statement, particularly when Sakurai is known to revise his positions (see: Villager).

Could ~45 characters be the cap? Sure. But, it also could not be. As was just posted, Sakurai has also made statements indicating that he wants to fit as many characters as he can.

Smash with exclusive characters would be horrendous, and I hope that the series never takes that path.

Yes but the quote also indicates limitations are an issue, of course he is going to fit as many characters as he can, that's just given.
I don't see how saying he will fit as many characters as he can contradicts him saying they are reaching the limit of what is feasible.

"As he can" "as possible" "what is feasible" they all pretty much mean the same thing...there are limits.

And I certainly hope the series will split at some point, I mean do you think they can just keep adding 15 newcomers at a time with minimal roster cuts? Again, limits, like it or not, they do exist.

 

[ErenJager]

55 Characters
16 Newcomers

 

[Andinus]

And here is what he said just 10 months ago.

"Adding new characters is not a simple addition – it’s really multiplication. The amount of work, adding a character is multiplied and becomes bigger and bigger as you go. We can’t because of the amount of work it takes. However, I do believe I understand that each character has its own set of fans out there who really like that character.

So, I take that as yes he feels bad, but the fact remains, some people are gonna go, and we cannot just infinitely add on to the roster size.

 

[TheTuninator]

Yes but the quote also indicates limitations are an issue, of course he is going to fit as many characters as he can, that's just given.
I don't see how saying he will fit as many characters as he can contradicts him saying they are reaching the limit of what is feasible.

"As he can" "as possible" "what is feasible" they all pretty much mean the same thing...there are limits.

And I certainly hope the series will split at some point, I mean do you think they can just keep adding 15 newcomers at a time with minimal roster cuts? Again, limits, like it or not, they do exist.

I don't see the benefit offered by splitting. Who can you even really cut at this point? Like 5 characters, tops? As of the Brawl cycle, every character in Smash deserves to be there.

Smash comes out once a generation and is one of the best-selling series in video games, so I'm not really worried about the series' long-term potential.

He is probably alluding to that article in which Sakurai asserts that 39 characters is around the amount that he believes to be "feasible". Hence, some believe that an 11 character increase wouldn't be interpreted as reasonable by Sakurai.

http://www.vg247.com/2012/07/03/super-smash-bros-roster-has-hit-the-limit-of-whats-feasible/

Given that SSB4 will almost certainly increase the overall roster size by at least 4-5 characters, Sakurai has already invalidated this statement.

 

[TheTuninator]

Whoops, double post, sorry.

 

[TeenGirlSquad]

I'm thinking 50, or even something like 52 if Sakurai holds back on cuts.

Optimists unite.

 

[KingBroly]

I'm thinking 45-49, because of the 2 versions limiting the roster size. However, I wouldn't be surprised to see it be smaller.

 

[Deleted member]

Spoiler

 

[Andinus]

I don't see the benefit offered by splitting. Who can you even really cut at this point? Like 5 characters, tops? As of the Brawl cycle, every character in Smash deserves to be there.

Smash comes out once a generation and is one of the best-selling series in video games, so I'm not really worried about the series' long-term potential.



Given that SSB4 will almost certainly increase the overall roster size by at least 4-5 characters, Sakurai has already invalidated this statement.

I don't think an overall roster increase of 4-5 invalidates it at all. It sounds reasonable and spot on to me. You know, we have reached the limit, but iam trying really hard.

 

[TeenGirlSquad]

I'm thinking 45-49, because of the 2 versions limiting the roster size. However, I wouldn't be surprised to see it be smaller.

I think that Sakurai meant that the limitations of the 3DS would limit certain characters, as we're seeing now with transformation characters and Olimar.

 

[TheTuninator]

I don't think an overall roster increase of 4-5 invalidates it at all. It sounds reasonable and spot on to me. You know, we have reached the limit, but iam trying really hard.

Sakurai specifically says that Brawl has "probably already reached the limit of what's feasible", and yet we seem guaranteed an increase in total roster size nonetheless.

Even a near-worst-case scenario of a roster size of 43 characters is still a significant 10% increase in total roster size over Brawl. Unless Sakurai goes on a cutting spree and trashes 8-10 characters, Brawl's roster size of 39 characters clearly wasn't actually the limit of what's feasible.

That statement shouldn't be given so much weight in arguments against a larger roster size if even belief in a roster size of 43-44 characters still requires disregarding Sakurai's opinion in 2012.

 

[Andinus]

Sakurai specifically says that Brawl has "probably already reached the limit of what's feasible", and yet we seem guaranteed an increase in total roster size nonetheless.

Even a near-worst-case scenario of a roster size of 43 characters is still a significant 10% increase in total roster size over Brawl. Unless Sakurai goes on a cutting spree and trashes 8-10 characters, Brawl's roster size of 39 characters clearly wasn't actually the limit of what's feasible.

That statement shouldn't be given so much weight in arguments against a larger roster size if even belief in a roster size of 43-44 characters still requires disregarding Sakurai's opinion in 2012.

First off he said "probably" that is not absolute, like if we end up with 40 characters his statement is now invalidated.. Come on.
It seems to me 42-44 characters is the most logical based on everything he has said, he is trying hard and trying to be optimistic but he knows we are reaching the limit. And as I quoted earlier the difficulty of adding extra characters was still on his mind just 10 months ago. As far as what we know now 42-44 characters is still very possible, I think everyone is going overboard with the amount of new characters they are fantasizing we will get, and under estimating the amount of cuts we will receive. Like some people honestly think nobody from brawl has a chance of being cut. I'm sorry but that's just ridiculous.

 

[RIDLEY is too SMALL]

It doesn't make sense to believe that there will be an increase of 15 or so characters with every Smash game. Do you really think that the next installment will have an increase in 15-ish characters, and then the next Smash game will have an increase of another 15-ish characters, etc.? There's a certain point where it becomes nonsensical, and there are only so many super-notable Nintendo characters to use. The approximate roster size has to plateau at a certain point, and I think we're almost at that point. I don't think people realize how much time it takes to develop a character.

Another important thing to consider is that, for Brawl, we already knew about the majority of the newcomers a couple of months before the game launched. We know of 6 newcomers and the 3DS version is launching this summer. Surely, we must know at least half of the newcomers since the game's launch is just around the corner.

50+ characters is not realistic.

45-ish characters is not pessimistic. That's a ****ton of characters in a Nintendo fighting game.

 

[Shroob]

45-49 is my guess. I'm saying it falls somewhere in-between that.

 

[Dark Phazon]

I see Squirtle/Ivysaur and either Falco or Wolf Cut
All other brawl vets back + Mewtwo
+ Sal's Remaining 6 Newcomers = 44

What i think

 

[Andinus]

Let me say, I was knocked for adding the "no clue" option, but 9 votes after a day.. I'm pleasantly surprised.

 

[mimgrim]

I use to think 42-43 character roster. But that was before the no transformations mid battle reveal. Now that characters like Sheik and Zamus have their own slot. I'm thinking around 45 character roster. But no higher then 48.

But in reality. I have no ****ing clue.

EDIT - I'm also expecting 3-5 cuts.

 

[Wanderer from Roseyard]

And here is what he said just 10 months ago.

"Adding new characters is not a simple addition – it’s really multiplication. The amount of work, adding a character is multiplied and becomes bigger and bigger as you go. We can’t because of the amount of work it takes. However, I do believe I understand that each character has its own set of fans out there who really like that character.

So, I take that as yes he feels bad, but the fact remains, some people are gonna go, and we cannot just infinitely add on to the roster size.

Thank you for bringing up that quote. I think it's important to remember it when we daydream about how big the roster will be.

Every time a new character is worked on, it has to be tested against every other character, so it becomes marginally more work every time one is added. With Brawl's 39 characters, there were 741 different one-on-one match-ups they had to test and study. (That doesn't include mirror matches.) A roster size of 50 would yield 1,125 match-ups to study. A 28% increase in characters results in a 51% increase in match-ups. That's how I believe Sakurai sees the work as multiplication rather than addition.

It's that particular quote and article that's had me thinking SSB4 will have a very small net gain of characters.

 

[9Volt]

I think we'll get the low end of 45-50. I think saying over 50 is wishful thinking, but the direct made me reevaluate how many characters are in this game. I had originally thought 45 was a nice, likely number, but perhaps slightly too high. Post direct I'm increasing my count.

There are multiple reasons for this; first of all I had always considered movesets more than slots, and had assumed that Pokemon Trainer and ZSS were going to be cut. I had theorized that transformational characters might be too difficult on the 3DS, as I do not know what its memory is capable of, whether or not it could afford to keep more character models on the backburner. This dropped the number of Brawl's unique movesets to 35, meaning we would get 10 more new movesets. Well, I had predicted one of them would be Mewtwo. I had also predicted that Sheik would be cut in favour of Impa and Ike would be cut in favour of Chrom, both of which would inherit an updated version of their predecessor's movesets. This would have meant 12 'newcomers' with 10 new movesets, and I thought that was pretty reasonable. Ultimately I did not think they would have the capacity to add more than 10 movesets to Brawl's lineup.

However, having seen some of the newcomers and some of the changes to the veterans, I have been forced to reconsider my thinking. The move away from transforming characters as made the separate pieces FAR easier to balance in relation to each other. Along with this, many veterans and newcomers have had their strengths and weaknesses magnified, making the balance between characters easier to manage. Because I had only limited myself to 10 new movesets based on balancing difficulties, and said 10 was a minimum because any less would be too disappointing. With the perceived focus on making sure characters are more easily tuned and balanced, I now suspect more than ten is possible. Add to that the return of ZSS and I am definitely over 45 now, albeit not by much.

You talk like the robot from your avatar XP

 

[Hulk Smash-bros]

Honestly the way i see it is if sakurai only has a roster size of 40 odd characters a feel alot of fans will be disappointed and possibly wont want to spend money on the wii u (which i know a huge majority of smash fans havnt gotten yet, including me) what people forget is how bad the wii u is doing in the console wars, to the point that nintendo had a meeting not to long ago addressing these problems. Super smash bros could very well be what saves the system as a whole and with the amount of work being put into it having around 50 characters isnt unreasonable at all (even with all the calculations and balancing they would have to do).
the fact of the 3ds being unable to keep up with roster size is a stupid concept in my opinion because its possible to have one 3ds game much larger then another one. And if it really is an issue i think they would cut other things like trophies/stages/story mode before deciding to keep the roster small because lets face it the more characters you have to play with means more time you can play the game without it feeling boring or stale.

 

[Senario]

My vote went to 44 or fewer. The more characters there are, the marginally more difficult it is for them to add the next one, which makes me doubt a massive expansion like Brawl had.

I reached my number by starting with Brawl's roster, subtracting the characters I think won't return, and multiplying by 1.25 since I suspect a fifth of the roster will be newcomers. That number was... 42.5. Guess we're going to get half a character ;]

Half a character, you mean the second ice climber? (Nana usually, but I think there is one color where you control Nana and popo is the secondary).

 

[Neanderthal]

I was originally imagining something 45-48, but after the Charizard and Greninja reveal I'd have to imagine it would be at least 50. It's hard to explain, but something in my mind says "if there's room for these guys Sakurai must have a few more tricks up his sleeves for this one."

Just to burst your bubble, there was always going to be a new gen Pokemon. Not to mention that 2 Pokemon have (presumably) been cut from the last game and need replacements.

It's not a matter of there "being room" for obscure picks. A new gen Pokemon is a mandatory pick. And at least one replacement for two cut Pokemon is also mandatory.

And if anything Charizard represents a lack of character space. He's basically just replacing Pokemon Trainer, which means they've cut 2 movesets.

Point being, I wouldn't take their inclusion as a sign of a large roster at all. If anything, the opposite.
It's a good sign for MewTwo though.

 

[praline]

I'm gonna go with a solid 50. That gives us like 14 newcomers total.

 

[TheTuninator]

It doesn't make sense to believe that there will be an increase of 15 or so characters with every Smash game. Do you really think that the next installment will have an increase in 15-ish characters, and then the next Smash game will have an increase of another 15-ish characters, etc.? There's a certain point where it becomes nonsensical, and there are only so many super-notable Nintendo characters to use. The approximate roster size has to plateau at a certain point, and I think we're almost at that point. I don't think people realize how much time it takes to develop a character.

Another important thing to consider is that, for Brawl, we already knew about the majority of the newcomers a couple of months before the game launched. We know of 6 newcomers and the 3DS version is launching this summer. Surely, we must know at least half of the newcomers since the game's launch is just around the corner.

50+ characters is not realistic.

45-ish characters is not pessimistic. That's a ****ton of characters in a Nintendo fighting game.

I don't expect 15 newcomers every time. I'm speaking specifically of this cycle. We're sitting at 39 characters currently. With ~4 cuts likely, 15 newcomers puts us exactly at 50 reps. Other high-profile fighting games have frequently met or exceeded this amount of playable characters. Smash is vastly more profitable than most, if not all of those games, and historically places more of a premium on content than balance.

50+ characters is a perfectly realistic expectation. I don't believe that a roster of that size is guaranteed, but expecting 50+ characters is just as reasonable as expecting 45 or less.

We've also got E3 and potentially one more Direct between now and release, so I wouldn't assume that we've seen half of the newcomers already, though we may well have.

As far as "super-notable" characters available to use, better tell Ice Climbers, ROB, Brawl Pit, and Melee Marth and Roy to take a hike, since they weren't "super notable". The mentality that Sakurai will be scraping the bottom of the bucket soon is patently absurd given the breadth and depth of Nintendo's library.

 

[Neanderthal]

I don't expect 15 newcomers every time. I'm speaking specifically of this cycle. We're sitting at 39 newcomers currently.

Sweet. What's your source?

 

[TheTuninator]

Sweet. What's your source?

Haha, whoops.