Is this really any different from Smash? In the same way that good players in Smash will be able to predict techrolls better than bad players, good players in SF4 can predict throws better. As such, good players will be able to capitalize in both situations.
It's a different kind of guessing game, but it's not too different from Smash in my opinion. As a Marth player, I try to guess spot dodges from spacies all the time. If I guess right, I get a grab into something. If I guess wrong, I get grabbed/combo'd. In SF4, if I guess that my opponent is going to be blocking, I win a throw. If I guess wrong, I eat a combo.
I will say that SF4 is way more unforgiving than Smash. The worse than can happen in Melee is a 25% damage combo (0 to death on a stock). In Sf4, you can take over 50% if your life bar if you're not careful.
EDIT: SF4 vs Smash debate go?
Yeah, it's very different. You're such a noob that I don't know where to begin...
For one thing, Melee is much different than SF4.
In Melee, if you get grabbed (be it a regular grab or shield grab), you ****ed up. You screwed up on your spacing and got grabbed for it. In SF4, if you get grabbed, you simply guessed wrong.
On top of that, zoning/approaching is WAY more easier in SF4 than it is in Melee. WAY more. It's not even comparable. So as a result, you're gonna be put into a guessing game with grabs very frequently. In SF4, players are either forced to find openings in close range while trying to guess whether the opponent is going to go for the grab or they're forced to turtle on opposite sides of the stage.... that's pretty bad.
As far as guessing games go in Melee, it's usually the one on the defensive who's guessing and only in certain situations (e.g. tech chasing). Guessing games are not nearly as frequent as they are in SF4. It's about controlling the stage and outspacing you're opponent more than anything.
And no, SF4 is NOT more unforgiving than Melee. In fact, it's the other way around. Losing a stock in a 0 to death combo is VERY bad. Comebacks are very difficult. In SF4, you always have the revenge meter to help you pull off a comeback in that round. The most you get in Melee is you're re-spawn invincibility which only lasts for about a second or so. Also, even if you lose in that round, you still have another round to help you win that game.
Hopefully, now you have an idea.