About patches, have you guys read Thinkaman's analysis of the game files for the last two patches? Within them, I don't see any evidence that custom specials are being changed particularly less than default specials; there are all kinds of random little tweaks to them. I actually think the patches further emphasize the great balance situation that is customs on; a lot of characters who have gotten buffs weren't buffed enough to matter with customs off but, when you further consider customs, you have really consequential characters. Marth, Kirby, and Ike certainly come to mind very quickly here. On the flip side, both Sonic and Diddy are probably overnerfed without customs, but when you look at what Hammer Spin Dash and Rocketbarrel Attack do for them, they still make a lot of sense as characters to me.
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The gatekeeper argument is interesting, but I don't think experience really shows that this is how it plays out. Anyone can beat custom DK; he's more of a gatekeeper for players (some just don't know what to do and just melt). I actually watched a money match locally tonight between a local Ness and a custom DK. The custom DK was definitely built to gatekeep and relied on his custom specials nearly exclusively, and hit was obvious this Ness player had never fought against it before and further wasn't even making good decisions (he kept running into Hot Slap, not appropriately recognizing that Hot Slap is a strong anti-air). The Ness player still won 3-0 since he was, overall, a stronger player with better fundamentals who won more basic exchanges because of that; if Ness has specific anti-Kong Cyclone tech, it wasn't being shown here (and hence was irrelevant). This particular MM wasn't the highlight of the metagame, but when I think back to every time I've seen Kong Cyclone play out across the country, I realize I've seen just such an array of different characters be the answer that I don't think character is the answer so much as player. In general, this gatekeeper argument seems to imply that match-ups are more polarized with customs on, and I just don't think the evidence supports that conclusion.
I'd also like to point out something I consider obvious but that may not be to those who haven't been in the smash community as long. If your character is "just getting by", your character is probably bad in the long run. Just think about it. If you're a rational player who wants to maximize his or her winning chances, first you're going to look at the things that have a dominating effect on the game. Question two comes when you look at everything else and ask "why would I ever want to use that not dominating thing when this dominating thing is already in the game waiting for me to pick it?". You want your character to do more than merely not encumber you too much; you want your character choice to actively provide features that help you win. On some level you do have to get past gatekeepers, but if you aren't throwing up gates of your own for your opponents to pass through at the same time, you're really not doing yourself a service. This is why, fundamentally, I see powerful gameplay elements among many characters as a friend of balance. There being many powerful gameplay elements means there are a lot of good reasons to pick many characters; when there are fewer powerful elements, the game centralizes more on whatever powerful elements remain. Basic balance principles still apply (broken game elements are always bad), but in general, everyone will converge on the strong characters so it's best for as many characters as possible to be strong. Weaker characters will inevitably be left behind, and while I like to be optimistic about as many characters as possible, we're going to see a big culling of the characters people actually use in the next year or two no matter what ruleset we use. Our real question is how many characters will survive this, and I'm quite convinced the number is much higher with customs legal.