Oasis Mafia - Over!

[ranmaru]

Should I actually answer that question, Boom?

 

[Jackrito]

I don't know why but some of this recent UP stuff makes me townread them a bit more then Boom. I also had Boom in my bottom 2 for the whole game. My real issues come from the fact that UP reads make zero sense but if he has lost all motivation I sort of understand it a bit more. The last couple of pages feel like effort even if lowkey. I could be wrong and he still flips scum but call it gut to an degree but I feel UP has a higher chance. Add that to the fact that Wisp and Z25 who I townread a lot are voting him makes me feel that is more right. Like I said UP was really bad in Token as well and got mislynched day one as town.

 

[Z25]

I think UP has had multiple issues Day 1. The reads list not making sense, is the first point. His absense in EOD, and during Day 2, is the second point. His lack of motivation to read and progress the town, is the third point. The Hi! (Which was underlined, by the way). He says he lost will power, but nothing pushed him in this game to do so. All an act. He's scum, who couldn't explain why his actions come from a town mindset.

I can excuse the first part because Up is the person who town read pokechu in flavorless and scum read Kary.

But absolutely absurd reads that I thought cane from scum up but didn’t.

And while Its absolutely a great possibility that this is an act( I’ve done similar in earlier games as a third party and even town myself), your other points relay completely on the fact that if he’s telling the truth that checks off the explanation for all of those.

Which is the problem. It’s a lot like Ninja, he made a lot of poor mistakes that newb town would make but also newb scum. Considering the conundrum that is the behavior of Up and Boom as well, literally any of them could be just like 3ds.

It’s just a matter of are the odds in l he favor or not

 

[Jackrito]

I think UP has had multiple issues Day 1. The reads list not making sense, is the first point. His absense in EOD, and during Day 2, is the second point. His lack of motivation to read and progress the town, is the third point. The Hi! (Which was underlined, by the way). He says he lost will power, but nothing pushed him in this game to do so. All an act. He's scum, who couldn't explain why his actions come from a town mindset.

Even if he flips scum stuff like this bothers me on a personal level. I actually feel like he did lose will power. This is perhaps me being soft which I am and is one of my issues in mafia. I'm conflicted though at the same time if we don't lynch him today its going to be a issue like Ninja was if he did lose willpower.

 

[ranmaru]

I think the absence and lack of motivation point to UP being scum. Consider his null read on myself, without really trying to figure that out beyond 'yeah Ran/Sab is a likely team'. That's not a town mindset.

 

[ranmaru]

The thing is, on Day 1 he was responding to Maven, while doing nothing intentionally. That was not being away due to frustration.

 

[Pokechu]

I’m probably going to look bad for saying this if Boom flips scum, but I’m realizing that Pokechu is playing the same way they were in Flavorless. Fool me once shame on me, but fool me twice, shame on you. I don’t want to go for Pokechu rn, but Pokechu makes a lot of sense as a third scummed. And to think that I townread them an hour ago.

I concur Z, could you expand? I think we all could make use of this! Would be very interesting to hear

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

All an act.

I don't intend to persuade you, but you're gonna flip when you find out what my flip is

I simply kid. I don't intend to infringe upon your opinion of me, but #2077 is a load of NAI from my point of view and is simply a compilation of things you don't like, NOT what makes me scummy.

'yeah Ran/Sab is a likely team'

This was brought about due to my primary scumread and you mutually townreading eachother all while providing self-assurance that what you were doing was correct. I'm sure that Sab is going to drop in to tell me how Ran is town and I'm scum pretty soon, but I was looking at the clear associations to determine what the mafia GROUP was, when in reality, I suppose the scummers are doing their best to distance each other. To that regard, I suppose I was merely calling attention to a buddy group that I was skeptical of what the intentions were. With that out of the way, I'm only laying off of you for the time being because I'm relenting to Wiisp's good points on your alignment.

 

[BoomFrog]

ranmaru Yes, if course I want you to answer that. Why cut off 24 hours of new content? If UP is town then this is gold, and if her is scum then his mates have to fake it. EoD is where the meat his the grinder and true action takes place. Don't waste that.

 

[ranmaru]

I wanted to end it a day early because people seem to be wavering on UP, and I wanted to lynch UP over you. I'm pretty much ready to see his flip, and I felt we talked quite a bit. I do think this point is good though, before it felt like we were going in circles.

 

[Z25]

I think the absence and lack of motivation point to UP being scum. Consider his null read on myself, without really trying to figure that out beyond 'yeah Ran/Sab is a likely team'. That's not a town mindset.

Fair points, let me ask though, if boom flips scum how do you view up? Does that team fit with your ideals?

 

[Sabrar]

ranmaru If UP is town then this is gold,

Disagree with this part, Ninja was town and I don't see anyone reanalyzing his content to look for clues.

 

[ranmaru]

Boom flipping scum does fit with UP being scum, due to their awkward interaction. Yet UP initiated, not Boom. So it's smarter to lynch UP first.

 

[Z25]

Disagree with this part, Ninja was town and I don't see anyone reanalyzing his content to look for clues.

Tbf Up was very accustomed to setup and posted enough without anger in it to analyze upon a fil

 

[Z25]

Tbf Up was very accustomed to setup and posted enough without anger in it to analyze upon a fil

EBWOP:
Flip

 

[Z25]

Boom flipping scum does fit with UP being scum, due to their awkward interaction. Yet UP initiated, not Boom. So it's smarter to lynch UP first.

Why does the initiative order matter?

 

[Sabrar]

Tbf Up was very accustomed to setup and posted enough without anger in it to analyze upon a fil

Correct, but Boom was referencing his latest content, not what he made earlier.

 

[ranmaru]

Because it means it is more likely UP had the idea to interact rather than Boom, and we can't verify the interaction is mutually scum. It's easier to see that UP had an agenda since he initiated it.

 

[Z25]

Because it means it is more likely UP had the idea to interact rather than Boom, and we can't verify the interaction is mutually scum. It's easier to see that UP had an agenda since he initiated it.

This is an interesting point but wouldn’t it make more sense for it to be the later? Because tbh I think this is a very weird point that could ultimately mean nothing. Granted there’s the other points to weigh still.

 

[ranmaru]

Can you expand on your question? Why would it make sense for it to be the latter?

 

[BoomFrog]

Disagree with this part, Ninja was town and I don't see anyone reanalyzing his content to look for clues.

True. It's not that hard for scum to fake choosing between two townies to lynch. I posted in haste.

 

[Sabrar]

True. It's not that hard for scum to fake choosing between two townies to lynch. I posted in haste.

I'm pretty sure this is a clue to Boom's alignment I just have to figure out how.

 

[Z25]

Can you expand on your question? Why would it make sense for it to be the latter?

Up as I pointed out is bad at interacting with his teammates. Why wouldn’t boom this supposedly extremely skilled Ayer whose barely caught as scum, not initiate it and make it look more natural?

 

[Z25]

Like if we assume the team is Boom and Up then that means up would likely be coached by a very skilled player. So I can’t see their interactions look weird or bad if that was the case

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

To heck with it I'm going to provide analysis of everybody.

Z25 - Looks good as town. Clearly has genuine frustration with non-compliance, which is a very solid tell for Town!Z25. They've asked good questions, I do appreciate them using their doubt as a tool to reach out to the truth, and I think they've looked generally good so far in this game.

Jackrito - Even when they suspected me, they felt natural in their progression of their read on me. I've generally seen them as anywhere from null to town during the thick and thin of the the game, but Jackrito is probably the most natural player in the game in terms of their posting quality, as well as their thought progression.

Wiisp - Looked good during D1. I'll admit that I got really paranoid because of how town I viewed them to be and I figured that Wiisp would be the one who would be able to completely deceive town as a god scum player. Luckily I quickly realized how wrong I was before things got catastrophic. Not a huge fan of them stepping in for Ran, but I suppose that this was also warranted before I fell into another rabbit hole, and the points of defense for Ran were pretty solid as well. Typically I'd say "maybe its a Ran/Wiisp team" but in this case I find this hard to truly believe.

Pokechu - Pokechu is probably going to be the hardest for me to look into, especially due to my general tendency to townread them. Definitely somebody that I would typically sort later in the game, however I have been using them to fill in gaps where nobody else does in terms of alignment. In hindsight, Pokechu has been playing what I interpret to be a relatively safe game. There are no pings for me to rely on, Maven was surprisingly active compared to his usual self and made a great deal to try and stay alive by saying "look at me, this is what I always do when I'm town" which would be a great subversion of expectations for scum!Maven. And Oasis-Pokechu feels a lot like Flavorless-Pokechu for that matter.

BoomFrog - Scumread them early on, appeared that they were trying to scoot under the radar with the minimum amount of posts to not be suspected of anything, and I didn't see anything terribly townie from them early on so I wanted to rile them up some to develop my read and see if I would have a change of heart. In the end, I've moved them back up to null because while I do think that there are valid criticisms of Boom in this game, I think that he has played D2 exceptionally well. Not at all a fan of the people who were saying that we should vote Boom so that he would be unable to "talk himself out of being lynched." On the flipside, I think that Boom was very calm under pressure, made rational reasons about why I was scum and Boom was town, and overall held his ground. Having a PoE of 2 people can be very dangerous in my opinion because the two at the bottom will just point fingers at each other, and nothing gets done. While Boom did point the finger at me, and I too pointed the finger at Boom, I'm starting to think that the fact that the two of us are in this position in the first place was exactly what scum wanted, because it would set up two Days worth of mislynches for an easy win. I think they've had a very townie mindset in concern to his own position.

Ranmaru - I really don't want to touch this case at all. I've antagonized Ran, and Ran has antagonized me. Mutual antagonization, if you will. I did temporarily give them credit for having full confidence in the 3DS lynch without trying to suggest any possibility of failure. Scum would try to find their way out of this type of situation, so that they wouldn't have to take full heat for being on board a bad wagon. However, this type of backdoor trail did not seem to be present, and Ran seemed to truly believe that he was right. If this truly is town, I wouldn't be surprised if scum!Sab or scum!Boom tried to replicate these thoughts D2 with their confidence on me so that they could get a piece of the town action. However, back to Ran, I now believe that its equally plausible that scum!Ran could have feigned confidence in 3DS for the same reasons that I've expressed above. But in the end, similar to what Z25 said about me, I wouldn't be surprised if Ran just flipped town and I was left disliking their playstyle rather than say that its scummy. I do think that they've had far too many suspicious interactions with people that I've scumread, but once again, that's supposed to be NAI.

LG and Sab cases later, because I'm going to need to have quotes for those it seems.

 

[ranmaru]

That's making an assumption pre-flip. As I said, we can't verify that both are scum interacting. That would require knowing their alignment before stating that is a fact. I'm saying that all we can see, in the thread, is UP deciding to interact with Boom. UP is more suspicious than Boom, so it's smarter to lynch UP first, and if he flips scum, to look back at their interactions and then consider if Boom is his buddy and go from there.

 

[BoomFrog]

UtopianPoyzin Alright, I'm not convinced your town but I'm seriously considering it. But I'm going to bed on time anyway and going to try and sleep.

If I am scum then they are going to lynch the two of us in the next two lynches no matter what. So let's skip that and you should assume I'm town. Also, I love your style but you're reads are ****. So just assume my reads are mostly right and let's go from there.

If I decide you are town and declare all my reads then get lynched, I'll flip and be confirmed post mortem. That should earn you enough trust to carry the torch. Yes it's crazy but if we are both town it's the only plan that doesn't lead to a scum sweep.

So, let's begin.
Wiisp is still town. They have been torn to shreds agonizing about this insanity and that's legit.
Laser and Sabrar are probably town. Laser defended me and Sabrar tried to coax Ninja out of his hole.

Jack I've got at town lean. Jack could have hammered just now but hesitated, and mocking Mr. Mayor was very natural.
Z25 feels town but that's mostly gut. Needs a reread.

Ranmaru is certainly scum in this world. They have been 100% wrong in every push so far. Here comes the worst part of Mafia, the quantum insult: In thought Ranmaru was just over confident and bad at logical deduction. But if he is actually Mafia everything makes far too much sense.

That leaves pokechou by PoE, and one person above who I am wrong about. Who is it? Z25 or Sabrar?

Ninja edit: just saw your post, your reads are actually decent.

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

That's making an assumption pre-flip. As I said, we can't verify that both are scum interacting. That would require knowing their alignment before stating that is a fact. I'm saying that all we can see, in the thread, is UP deciding to interact with Boom. UP is more suspicious than Boom, so it's smarter to lynch UP first, and if he flips scum, to look back at their interactions and then consider if Boom is his buddy and go from there.

Stop stop stop. Iirc, you haven't considered the fact that I flip town? If I flip town, where do you look?

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

Stop stop stop. Iirc, you haven't considered the fact that I flip town? If I flip town, where do you look?

Besides Boom btw

 

[Z25]

That's making an assumption pre-flip. As I said, we can't verify that both are scum interacting. That would require knowing their alignment before stating that is a fact. I'm saying that all we can see, in the thread, is UP deciding to interact with Boom. UP is more suspicious than Boom, so it's smarter to lynch UP first, and if he flips scum, to look back at their interactions and then consider if Boom is his buddy and go from there.

I suppose that’s fair but:

UtopianPoyzin Alright, I'm not convinced your town but I'm seriously considering it. But I'm going to bed on time anyway and going to try and sleep.

If I am scum then they are going to lynch the two of us in the next two lynches no matter what. So let's skip that and you should assume I'm town. Also, I love your style but you're reads are ****. So just assume my reads are mostly right and let's go from there.

If I decide you are town and declare all my reads then get lynched, I'll flip and be confirmed post mortem. That should earn you enough trust to carry the torch. Yes it's crazy but if we are both town it's the only plan that doesn't lead to a scum sweep.

So, let's begin.
Wiisp is still town. They have been torn to shreds agonizing about this insanity and that's legit.
Laser and Sabrar are probably town. Laser defended me and Sabrar tried to coax Ninja out of his hole.

Jack I've got at town lean. Jack could have hammered just now but hesitated, and mocking Mr. Mayor was very natural.
Z25 feels town but that's mostly gut. Needs a reread.

Ranmaru is certainly scum in this world. They have been 100% wrong in every push so far. Here comes the worst part of Mafia, the quantum insult: In thought Ranmaru was just over confident and bad at logical deduction. But if he is actually Mafia everything makes far too much sense.

That leaves pokechou by PoE, and one person above who I am wrong about. Who is it? Z25 or Sabrar?

Ninja edit: just saw your post, your reads are actually decent.

Can your really say such boldness to throw their whole slot on the line is town? If Up is town this would be an attempt to make Boom way better looking to town. Can you really say Up still deserves it more?

 

[ranmaru]

I think UP if you were to flip town, that would make [Boom, Sabrar, Laser] make more sense. Yet I'm confident you are scum, from your play today.

 

[ranmaru]

Can your really say such boldness to throw their whole slot on the line is town? If Up is town this would be an attempt to make Boom way better looking to town. Can you really say Up still deserves it more?

Can you clarify? I'm not understanding your point here.

 

[BoomFrog]

Z25 you have to understand. I'm dead today or D3. For sure, 99+%. I'm not throwing away what I can't keep anyway. I'm trying to spend it as best as possible.

 

[ranmaru]

Boom: I have a token that I wanted to use.

 

[BoomFrog]

Sabrar I know I screwed up the handshake protocol D1 and we won't get full trust this game. But you can't be confident that I'm scum either. And you know I'm valuable as town even for one more day. Why have you not fought to keep me alive over UP?

 

[BoomFrog]

Boom: I have a token that I wanted to use.

What does it require to use?

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

I think UP if you were to flip town, that would make [Boom, Sabrar, Laser] make more sense. Yet I'm confident you are scum, from your play today.

Okay never mind, I'm really not sure what I expected you to say beyond my top two scumreads and Boom. Carry on.

That leaves pokechou by PoE, and one person above who I am wrong about. Who is it? Z25 or Sabrar?

I actually feel a lot better about this now because we both have Pokechu as our PoE third scummer. I cut them slack too easily but they haven't been exceptional either, and I'm really feeling similarities to how they played as scum in Flavorless. As for your Z25 or Sab, I REALLY am leaning Sab due to your read on Ran. While I don't particularly hard scumread Ran yet, that would explain the Ran / Sab interactions where they seem to somehow agree on everything and support the fact that their both town. Usually I wouldn't think that the two of them would make sure a bold play to associate themselves, but its nothing mind boggling, as it's been pretty lowkey for the most part.

How does LG defending you clear him?

 

[ranmaru]

What does it require to use?

Nothing, now you know why I was rushing. Do you actually believe rushing is a bad idea, or are you forcing this too?

 

[Z25]

Can you clarify? I'm not understanding your point here.

Boom’s continuous attempt at a suicide play to save up is scum boom saving scum Up, it’s scum Boom trying to look good when you mislycnh Up not the other townies.

It’s a setup for him to push your mislych next is what I’m betting. Likely alongside his teammate, someone with good reads by others( sab, or maybe jac or wisp)

This is scum boom making a sacrifice play to mislead town starting with Up’s lynch, hence why he’s so adamant on saving a slot out he knows nothing about like the ninja stuff yesterday and his posts on wisp being town since day one. At least that’s what I’m betting on based on his posts

 

[BoomFrog]

Rushing is absolutely a bad idea. Having a night action is no reason to rush. And why did you claim that? I'd already accepted "I thought we were going no where."