Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[Curious Villager]

Spoiler: Direct Spoilers

Who is the target audience for these Mario vs DK games? Do they even do that well?
I doubt the game would conflict with the development of a proper new DK platformer but I foresee big backlash in any case.

Its probably one of those low budget games that are easy to make and put out to give the Switch more titles for the holiday's.
Either that, or its a nice simple exercise for new and inexperienced dev's to work with and get a game out into the market like they did with some of the the NSMB games.
I don't think even Nintendo expects them to be ground breaking and sell millions...

 

[Nekoo]

It's one thing if you're not saying everything you know or not giving specifics (I mean, by leaking anything, already somebody is saying more than they should), but it's not good to communicate it in a way that plays with people's expectations.

Again I don't know this particular person and don't want to jump to conclusions about their intentions; maybe they are just thinking it'll be fun for people this way. It's still not the best way of delivering info, though again there's not really a "good" way to break an agreement, whether that be on their part or their source's.

They're stirng the pot to drawn out fake leakers trying to ride them.
That's what they did with their recents hint

 

[SPEN18]

They're stirng the pot to drawn out fake leakers trying to ride them.
That's what they did with their recents hint

Yes I know that is a component to what this person is doing

I still don't like also misleading everybody else along with it, again intentional or not

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Honestly, straight-out leaking is boring and not fun at all. And they're not really misleading anyone. Anybody who assumes extreme specifics is their own fault for doing so. Speculating that it could be of many things is the point of being vague, to keep things interesting. It can be annoying, but you choose to read any leaks that happen when you open that spoiler text. You choose to subject yourself to the information, regardless of what it is. Just cause you don't like the specific details doesn't mean there's an actual problem with them. A person leaking has multiple reasons they want to do so. Those who are speculators as well quite often like to make it vague(also to avoid getting caught) to make things, well, as I said, interesting.

And frankly, stirring the pot(which I would barely call it that realistically) only serves to get rid of fake leakers. You know, people who actually want to mislead and lie to others. They're just getting karma right back at them. Good riddance. It's quite hard to feel any sympathy for those kind of people who outright want to create false hope. The real leakers aren't actually doing that. They are still honest at the end of the day. Best wording? Debatable. But they're not liars, and that's the most important part.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

As far as whether or not anyone was misled with some of the tweets...

Spoiler

I don't think it speaks to leakers being deceptive as much as it demonstrates that the likes of Mario vs DK is so irrelevant as a subseries (or out of mind for most fans) that no even assumed that a Donkey Kong release could be something like that until it was clarified. In that sense it doesn't suggest anything about the leaker being a liar (though it may suggest fairly meh sales in the future if it is indeed a Mario vs DK sequel).

 

[TheQuester]

I think the new companies that offer characters with the strongest global prominence are the likeliest to join.

Of course most of the best options in that regard are already covered by the companies already present (including ABK under MS). I suppose options like Koei-Tecmo (w/ Ryu Hayabusa, even though Ninja Gaiden leans west) and Level-5 (w/ Layton, assuming the comeback sticks) would be fairly strong choices from that pool. Others like ASW (w/ probably Sol from GG) and Spike Chunsoft (w/ Monokuma) would be plausible too. And then there's always Travis, but as to what state his series/popularity will be in down the road, who knows.

Choices like Rayman/Ubisoft seem obvious from our vantage, but he really has much less of a foothold in Japan. Not that he couldn't happen, it's just... a very lopsided choice, which hurts his odds. And there's Assassin's Creed, which I suspect is bigger there but... Rayman at least has demand.

Nihon Falcom... may put out a lot of games, and have done so for a long time, but they don't have any characters nearly as prolific generally as third-parties usually offer. I just think other companies have IPs which align more with what Smash goes for.

Of course there's western companies like Take-Two, Embracer, Valve, etc. Most of those series lean fairly western, and lack specific Smash demand, but you never know who might show up as a dark horse candidate. There are certainly big series within those companies. Though if the series barely even exists in Japan, as in, the games don't get released, I wouldn't hold my breath. Oh, and suppose there's also Epic/Fortnite.

I also don't think we can overlook China, particularly in terms of Genshin Impact and (via Tencent) League of Legends. Both of those series are huge all over the globe. Neither has had their main game on a Nintendo system (though both are allegedly still coming), which would, if nothing else, remove some contention around their inclusion, but we'll see how things look down the line.

Plus there's indies. I think next game we'll get at least one as playable. I would, again, look to those with successful global standing as likely options. That's a shorter list, considering many indies skew one way or another. I think most of the likeliest choices got some sort of representation in Ultimate.

Basically I'm of the mind the characters with strong global appeal will remain those who are chosen, and exceptions will exist but be fairly scant and probably somewhat exceptional in their standing, whether in size or demand, to offset the imbalance.

Speaking of Koei Tecmo, what about Atelier? The Ryza game was very popular, wasn't it?

 

[CapitaineCrash]

Spoiler: Direct Spoilers

Who is the target audience for these Mario vs DK games? Do they even do that well?
I doubt the game would conflict with the development of a proper new DK platformer but I foresee big backlash in any case.

I really like those game personally, they're very chill puzzle games, kind of similar to Captain Toad in a way. That being said, the best game in the franchise was by far the first game on GBA, which was more a puzzle platformer.

Speaking of Koei Tecmo, what about Atelier? The Ryza game was very popular, wasn't it?

I really don't see that getting in before Ninja gaiden or Dead or alive. Atelier is super niche even for jrpg standard, there's a lot of games but they don't sell that much. The Atelier Ryza trilogy sold 2 million copies total, so it's an average of 650 000 copies by game, it's really not that popular tbh.

 

[Stratos]

What I'm writing right now I don't think I want to actually happen, but how about Luigi vs. Donkey Kong?

 

[Sucumbio]

With Koei Tecmo in smash there's two I really want being Ninja Gaiden and Rygar. I think Ryu Hayabusa and Rygar would make excellent fighters. I'd also be super psyched if KT made a Rygar sequel or reboot.

 

[Stratos]

The truth is that Ryu Hayabusa is Koei Tecmo's most famous character which means he is the most likely to come as a newcomer in a new Super Smash Bros. game.

 

[KneeOfJustice99]

I guess there's always the possibility for one of the original (or reimagined) Warriors characters from their Nintendo IP games to appear? I mean, I guess Lana's time has long-since passed, but someone from Age of Calamity might make sense (whether it be a more original pick like their interpretation of Paya, or characters like Sooga, or even just their reinterpretations of someone like Sidon) or something?

 

[Stratos]

I think of Henry Fleming from Code Name: S.T.E.A.M. and Professor Layton. Two video game characters that are to represent the age of locomotives.

 

[fogbadge]

I think of Henry Fleming from Code Name: S.T.E.A.M. and Professor Layton. Two video game characters that are to represent the age of locomotives.

you mean one game set in an alternate timeline and the other set in a deliberately ambiguous time period?

 

[osby]

I guess there's always the possibility for one of the original (or reimagined) Warriors characters from their Nintendo IP games to appear? I mean, I guess Lana's time has long-since passed, but someone from Age of Calamity might make sense (whether it be a more original pick like their interpretation of Paya, or characters like Sooga, or even just their reinterpretations of someone like Sidon) or something?

They could do that but it feels like something they'd do for the sake of that character and not for the purpose of including Koei Techmo content in particular.

That'd be like adding Vaati to represent Capcom over Mega Man and Ryu.

 

[Stratos]

you mean one game set in an alternate timeline and the other set in a deliberately ambiguous time period?

Yes, kind of like that.

 

[TheQuester]

The truth is that Ryu Hayabusa is Koei Tecmo's most famous character which means he is the most likely to come as a newcomer in a new Super Smash Bros. game.

Yeah, of course, Ryu Hayabusa would get first.
But for the 2nd KT rep i think Atelier would be fine, DoA is probably more likely, but i think it's uniqueness could give Atelier the edge, i think Ryza would be more interesting moveset-wise than Kasumi.
I'm not sure about Dynasty Warriors, i don't think so since they're not really videogame characters.

 

[Garteam]

I really think people sleep on Kasumi as far as potential fighting game characters go.

I know a lot of people generally write Dead or Alive off as a franchise because “haha booba fake fightin gaem” or Dead or Alive 6’s failure, but it’s still one of the biggest names in the genre to a general audience. Dead or Alive 5 had 12 million downloads between its various versions, which is pretty insane for a fighting game. Pyrosphere was even added as a stage in Dead or Alive: Dimensions, so DoA has already interacted with Nintendo IP before.

Kasumi would also fit in Smash like a glove. Her play style in DoA is pretty perfectly tailored to a close-quarters, rushdown moveset in Smash. She’s also an icon in the industry, even if her star has slightly fallen in recent years. Her, Lara Croft, and Samus were basically the Holy Trinity of “sexiest and most kick-ass girls in gaming” in the 2000s.

IMO, Koei Tecmo is probably the largest and most influential Japanese publisher not currently in Smash (barring maybe Sony, but they’re an exception for a variety of reasons). So, I don’t think giving them two characters is necessarily that out there (especially if you treat them like Microsoft and give them two reps across multiple DLC waves). Ryu Hayabusa would be a lot of fun as a Ninja Gaiden rep, while Kasumi would represent Dead or Alive proper.

 

[TheQuester]

I really think people sleep on Kasumi as far as potential fighting game characters go.

I know a lot of people generally write Dead or Alive off as a franchise because “haha booba fake fightin gaem” or Dead or Alive 6’s failure, but it’s still one of the biggest names in the genre to a general audience. Dead or Alive 5 had 12 million downloads between its various versions, which is pretty insane for a fighting game. Pyrosphere was even added as a stage in Dead or Alive: Dimensions, so DoA has already interacted with Nintendo IP before.

Kasumi would also fit in Smash like a glove. Her play style in DoA is pretty perfectly tailored to a close-quarters, rushdown moveset in Smash. She’s also an icon in the industry, even if her star has slightly fallen in recent years. Her, Lara Croft, and Samus were basically the Holy Trinity of “sexiest and most kick-ass girls in gaming”.

IMO, Koei Tecmo is probably the largest and most influential Japanese publisher not currently in Smash (barring maybe Sony, but they’re an exception for a variety of reasons). So, I don’t think giving them two characters is necessarily that out there (especially if you treat them like Microsoft and give them two reps across multiple DLC waves). Ryu Hayabusa would be a lot of fun as a Ninja Gaiden rep, while Kasumi would represent Dead or Alive proper.

I personally just think Ryza would be more interesting moveset-wise.
I think the reputation of Dead or Alive could be an issue, but we already have Bayonetta, so maybe it doesn't matter.
I don't think she's unlikely as the 2nd KT rep at all, but i think Ryza would be more interesting.

I do think every non-represented IP and 3rd party characters is worth adding because it would increase the appeal of Smash Bros to a wider audiencie, and Kasumi would definitely do that.

 

[Garteam]

I think the reputation of Dead or Alive could be an issue, but we already have Bayonetta, so maybe it doesn't matter.

Sakurai publicly criticized CERO for not allowing him to give Palutena up-skirt shots or to add Mai as a cameo on KoF Stadium. I don’t think DoA’s risqué identity will necessarily deter him lmao.

 

[CapitaineCrash]

Just for fun since we're on the topic of third party, I will try to rank each game companies from the most likely to get playable representation to least likely in the form of a tier list:
S tier: Capcom, Sega: Those already have representation, seems to be pretty easy to negotiate with and have a huge pool of characters to choose from. I think those are easily the frontrunner of third parties.

A tier: Namco Bandai: Pretty much the same as Sega and Capcom, but they don't have as many franchise to represent (the big frontrunner being Tales of), so I'm putting it a bit lower.

B tier: Konami, Square, Microsoft (including Activision and Bethesda), Level 5, Koei Tecmo: I think Konami, Square and Microsoft will be harder to negotiate with and they'll prioritise keeping what we already have instead of trying to get new characters, that being said they still have a few frontrunner that could get considered especially as DLC. I'm also putting Level 5 and Koei Tecmo in that category as the highest new companies, because they have big relationship with Nintendo and have a few front runners.

C tier: SNK, Nihon Falcon, Ubisoft, popular indie character: SNK is here because while it's easy to negotiate with, most of their franchise are pretty small so I'm not sure if they will get anything else. Falcon is here too, I don't think it's a frontrunner but I think with how much they influenced the JRPG landscape and for how long they've been around they could be considered. I also think Ubisoft is by far the most likely new western companies to get playable representation because of their relationship with Nintendo. Finally, I'm putting indie characters as a general category here, I could see it happening especially with how important indie games was in the Switch generation, but I don't think it would get priority over big AAA characters in general.

D tier: Pretty much anything I haven't mentionned: This include smaller Japanese companies (like Spike Chunsoft or Marvelous for example) or Western companies that are not Microsoft, Ubisoft or indie (so EA, Take two, Embracer group for example). I don't see them as very likely either because their franchise are too niche or dealing with big Western devs will be hard if they don't already have relationship with Nintendo, but they could maybe still be chosen as a dark horse pick.

F tier: Sony: That's just not happening.

 

[Sucumbio]

I missed out on DoA and only know them as "that volleyball game with the anime girls in bikinis"... but I'd be down, it'd be as cool as when Terry got in, but I personally would want FG reps from other franchises first such as MK.

 

[CannonStreak]

About something that leaker spoiled for the Nintendo Direct...

Spoiler: Leaks

If there is a F-Zero 99, and it is anything like Tetris 99, (is it like Tetris 99), how are they going to fit 99 racers in one track?

 

[Hadokeyblade]

About something that leaker spoiled for the Nintendo Direct...

Spoiler: Leaks

If there is a F-Zero 99, and it is anything like Tetris 99, (is it like Tetris 99), how are they going to fit 99 racers in one track?

Maybe they wouldnt make it 99 players, just the usual 40 or so racers in a course.

 

[Sucumbio]

About something that leaker spoiled for the Nintendo Direct...

Spoiler: Leaks

If there is a F-Zero 99, and it is anything like Tetris 99, (is it like Tetris 99), how are they going to fit 99 racers in one track?

Spoiler

lol! actually that's exactly what they should do...the next system could prolly handle it!

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

About something that leaker spoiled for the Nintendo Direct...

Spoiler: Leaks

If there is a F-Zero 99, and it is anything like Tetris 99, (is it like Tetris 99), how are they going to fit 99 racers in one track?

Spoiler

Given that Mario 35 only had that number of players, I'd imagine a battle royal variation of F-Zero will do something similar.

 

[KneeOfJustice99]

About something that leaker spoiled for the Nintendo Direct...

Spoiler: Leaks

If there is a F-Zero 99, and it is anything like Tetris 99, (is it like Tetris 99), how are they going to fit 99 racers in one track?

I genuinely don't think that a new game in the F-Zero series would be anywhere near as fast-paced as something like GX, so as to provide a lower bar of entry to players, which would also help a lot in terms of console performance. Also, as other people have pointed out, it's unlikely they'd bring it all the way up to 99 players in the first place - 30 might make sense given it's been the standard since X, but it could be more. (Or less!)

That being said, you could totally fit 99 racers into a track, it'd just need to very specifically be designed for 99 players - so it'd need to be pretty wide with shallow turns and so forth.

 

[CannonStreak]

I genuinely don't think that a new game in the F-Zero series would be anywhere near as fast-paced as something like GX, so as to provide a lower bar of entry to players, which would also help a lot in terms of console performance. Also, as other people have pointed out, it's unlikely they'd bring it all the way up to 99 players in the first place - 30 might make sense given it's been the standard since X, but it could be more. (Or less!)

That being said, you could totally fit 99 racers into a track, it'd just need to very specifically be designed for 99 players - so it'd need to be pretty wide with shallow turns and so forth.

Spoiler

Now, that is interesting, I find it.

Spoiler

lol! actually that's exactly what they should do...the next system could prolly handle it!

Spoiler

I would like something like that, too.

Maybe they wouldnt make it 99 players, just the usual 40 or so racers in a course.

Spoiler

Given that Mario 35 only had that number of players, I'd imagine a battle royal variation of F-Zero will do something similar.

Spoiler

Okay, that works, I guess.

 

[SPEN18]

Honestly, straight-out leaking is boring and not fun at all. And they're not really misleading anyone. Anybody who assumes extreme specifics is their own fault for doing so. Speculating that it could be of many things is the point of being vague, to keep things interesting. It can be annoying, but you choose to read any leaks that happen when you open that spoiler text. You choose to subject yourself to the information, regardless of what it is. Just cause you don't like the specific details doesn't mean there's an actual problem with them. A person leaking has multiple reasons they want to do so. Those who are speculators as well quite often like to make it vague(also to avoid getting caught) to make things, well, as I said, interesting.

And frankly, stirring the pot(which I would barely call it that realistically) only serves to get rid of fake leakers. You know, people who actually want to mislead and lie to others. They're just getting karma right back at them. Good riddance. It's quite hard to feel any sympathy for those kind of people who outright want to create false hope. The real leakers aren't actually doing that. They are still honest at the end of the day. Best wording? Debatable. But they're not liars, and that's the most important part.

I never accused them of outright lying, and I already said it's not the intentional vagueness that is the issue.
If they're doing this to oust fake leakers, then that only confirms that they know how a large number of people will interpret their hints. It's the specific way in which they're going about things that makes it feel like manipulation, though as I already said, I don't know enough to say if that is actually a part of their intention. In any case the way they're doing things is rubbing me the wrong way, beyond the general shadiness that comes with pretty much all leaks besides.
Exposing fakers is one thing but I'm concerned about susceptible people being carried along for the ride. It seems unlikely that some noble cause of eliminating fakers is their only motivation, as there's likely some element of fixating attention on themselves alone and enjoying making power plays on others, but even if it is, breaking (or participating in breaking) NDA yourself is not really the way to go about that, either.

 

[osby]

Yeah, of course, Ryu Hayabusa would get first.
But for the 2nd KT rep i think Atelier would be fine, DoA is probably more likely, but i think it's uniqueness could give Atelier the edge, i think Ryza would be more interesting moveset-wise than Kasumi.
I'm not sure about Dynasty Warriors, i don't think so since they're not really videogame characters.

Not really. Although Dynasty Warriors is loosely based on the Romance of the Three Kingdoms, Koei Tecmo still owns the characters' designs that they adapted from public domain figures - which originate from video games.

Think of it like Castlevania's Dracula.

 

[DarthEnderX]

I just want to clarify that my original intent by mentioning companies with no represention in Smash specifically includes as little as Spirits. So I do believe Koei Tecmo, Arc System Works, and Ubisoft are fair game.

I think Koei Tecmo is the most likely, followed by ArcSys.

When we get a character, it's usually from a company Sakurai hasn't worked with.

What? Like, all the 3P characters in FP2 are from companies that already had characters in Smash.

Spoiler: Direct Spoilers

Who is the target audience for these Mario vs DK games? Do they even do that well?

It's just Nintendo-branded Lemmings/Krusty's Funhouse. It's a genre.

Speaking of Koei Tecmo, what about Atelier? The Ryza game was very popular, wasn't it?

Yeah.

But she better not get in before Hayabusa...

Spoiler: Leaks

If there is a F-Zero 99, and it is anything like Tetris 99, (is it like Tetris 99), how are they going to fit 99 racers in one track?

The same way Tetris 99 fit 99 Tetris players in one Tetris screen. They don't. You'll be racing on a track on your own, and there will just be little indicators for the other races, and you'll earn some way to **** up other racers runs.

 

[fogbadge]

Sakurai publicly criticized CERO for not allowing him to give Palutena up-skirt shots or to add Mai as a cameo on KoF Stadium. I don’t think DoA’s risqué identity will necessarily deter him lmao.

smash may be for good boys and girls but sakurai sure aint one

 

[KneeOfJustice99]

I think the question about Ryu Hayabusa that personally intrigues me the most is whether they'd be more likely to have his playstyle and moveset more predominantly inspired by the reboot series and other appearances of him in that style, seems as more of it is directly applicable to Smash, whether they'd go down the Mega Man trail of thought and try to base him mostly on his NES appearance, or if they'd go for a fusion of the two

 

[CannonStreak]

About Ryu Hayabusa, would his company even want him in? I mean, I am sure they have nothing against Smash Bros. in general, except Smash Bros. has Capcom stuff in it, and from what I hear, Ryu H.'s company, Koei Tecmo, and Capcom basically hate each other. Did I hear right on that or not?

 

[osby]

About Ryu Hayabusa, would his company even want him in? I mean, I am sure they have nothing against Smash Bros. in general, except Smash Bros. has Capcom stuff in it, and from what I hear, Ryu H.'s company, Koei Tecmo, and Capcom basically hate each other. Did I hear right on that or not?

I don't know what went between those two but I doubt it's so bad that Koei Tecmo will reject free money and promotion from another company.

 

[TheQuester]

Not really. Although Dynasty Warriors is loosely based on the Romance of the Three Kingdoms, Koei Tecmo still owns the characters' designs that they adapted from public domain figures - which originate from video games.

Think of it like Castlevania's Dracula.

I dont think it's the same.
I'm sure the DW characters are suposed to be the SAME characters as the real people.
While Castlevania's Draculia is a diferent character from the original,

 

[DarthEnderX]

While Castlevania's Draculia is a diferent character from the original

TECHNICALLY he's not. The Bram Stoker novel is considered a canon part of the Castlevania timeline(it's the 1897 entry).

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

I dont think it's the same.
I'm sure the DW characters are suposed to be the SAME characters as the real people.
While Castlevania's Draculia is a diferent character from the original,

Not all that much. Especially when one of the Novels is canon to the story's design.

End of the day, they're not straight-out exactly the same, but adaptions. They legally own the characters, which is really what matters too. Dynasty Warriors is a fictional franchise. A good comparison would be the Fate series as well, which uses OC takes on tons of historical domain characters, but they're all created for a video game a series nonetheless and are referencing the old legends. It's why they can get away with tons of unique designs, the original gender or sex not mattering either(as they're OC's). A fair amount of characters were made female, but not all identify as female even then, a really nice take on it.

 

[osby]

I dont think it's the same.
I'm sure the DW characters are suposed to be the SAME characters as the real people.
While Castlevania's Draculia is a diferent character from the original,

I'm pretty sure the real, historical Zhuge Liang wasn't going around shooting laser beams from his hand fan.

You can argue that the games follow the novels more closely but even then, they're far from being straightforward, loyal-to-source-material adaptations

 

[Hadokeyblade]

Something i wish the net smash would do is that every new DLC third party character also updats the assist trophy line up with an assist from their home series.

It just bothers me that this doesnt happen, the base game third parties each got an assist assigned to them (Except Cloud) so i think the DLC characters should get 'em too.

 

[CannonStreak]

I don't know what went between those two but I doubt it's so bad that Koei Tecmo will reject free money and promotion from another company.

Huh, I was thinking that. I just wanted to make sure, that is all.