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Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

MrMcNuts

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On eShop you can sort words ya search or categories by "best sellers" but I don't know if it's a literal from top to bottom list is the thing
 

TCT~Phantom

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One of my friends nabbed the data for the Netherlands.

Pass 2
Pass 1
Plant
Sephiroth
Joker
Pythra
Kazuya
Sora
Sans
Byleth
Banjo
Terry
Min Min
Hero

Similar tracking to the UK, wonder how the rest of Europe is.

That doesn't make it prudent to expect it, that just means it could happen. Yeah Mario and Pokemon have received more than one original newcomer before, but after Melee, it only happened one time for each, 4 and Brawl respectively.

It we get a reboot, then maybe the chances go up. Though I still wouldn't anticipate it for Kirby, because the three we have now seem like they'd be priorities, and reaching five with a rebooted roster seems pretty unlikely.


I don't think the entire fanbase would've missed this during the time the characters were actually coming out. This fanbase is insanely obsessive and meticulous.
I never said it was likely, I said it was not an unreasonable thought. Mario or Pokemon are both big enough series that have had massive success stories on the Switch, so either of them getting a look for two newcomers would not be that crazy. It is more likely at the end of the day we get one rather than two, but I would not say it is some ridiculous thought for those two series. Kirby though, yeah it getting two reps is not likely.
 
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Wunderwaft

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I decided to check how the eshop ranking for Smash DLC is in Japan, and the results might shock some of you lol
If you want to check the data you can change the eshop region in your own switch like I did and see for yourself.

1- Kazuya
2- Fighter Pass 2
3- Steve
4- Pyra/Mythra
5- Fighter Pass 1
6- Joker
7- Sora
8- Piranha Plant
9- Hero
10- Sephiroth
11- Byleth
12- Terry
13- Min Min
14- Sans (lol mii)
15- Banjo Kazooie

1- Sans
2- Creeper
3- Diamond Swordfighter
4- Pig
5- Rathalos
6- Cuphead
7- Bomberman
8- Doom Slayer
9- Erdrick
10- Heihachi
11- Dante
12- Ryo
13- Team Rocket Grunt
14- Octoling
15- Tifa
16- Vault Boy
17- Marie
18- Yu Narukami
19- Altair
20- Slime Hat
21- Nakoruru
22- Ninjara
23- Dragonborn
24- Mega Man EXE
25- Callie
26- Makoto Yuki
27- Shantae
28- Arthur
29- Hunter (MH)
30- Judd
31- Iori
32- Mega Man X
33- Aerith
34- Knuckles
35- Morgana
36- Veronica
37- Rabbid
38- Zero
39- Gil
40- Lloyd
41- Chocobo
42- Felyne
43- Barret
44- Geno
45- Protoman
46- Martial Artist
47- Goemon
48- Travis
49- Akira
50- Tails
51- Jacky
52- Teddie
 

Aaayei

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I decided to check how the eshop ranking for Smash DLC is in Japan, and the results might shock some of you lol
If you want to check the data you can change the eshop region in your own switch like I did and see for yourself.

1- Kazuya
2- Fighter Pass 2
3- Steve
4- Pyra/Mythra
5- Fighter Pass 1
6- Joker
7- Sora
8- Piranha Plant
9- Hero
10- Sephiroth
11- Byleth
12- Terry
13- Min Min
14- Sans (lol mii)
15- Banjo Kazooie

1- Sans
2- Creeper
3- Diamond Swordfighter
4- Pig
5- Rathalos
6- Cuphead
7- Bomberman
8- Doom Slayer
9- Erdrick
10- Heihachi
11- Dante
12- Ryo
13- Team Rocket Grunt
14- Octoling
15- Tifa
16- Vault Boy
17- Marie
18- Yu Narukami
19- Altair
20- Slime Hat
21- Nakoruru
22- Ninjara
23- Dragonborn
24- Mega Man EXE
25- Callie
26- Makoto Yuki
27- Shantae
28- Arthur
29- Hunter (MH)
30- Judd
31- Iori
32- Mega Man X
33- Aerith
34- Knuckles
35- Morgana
36- Veronica
37- Rabbid
38- Zero
39- Gil
40- Lloyd
41- Chocobo
42- Felyne
43- Barret
44- Geno
45- Protoman
46- Martial Artist
47- Goemon
48- Travis
49- Akira
50- Tails
51- Jacky
52- Teddie
Kazuya being 1st is funny

Also, wow, Doomslayer even did well in Japan. #8 out of all the miis. Starting to think he's an extremely likely candidate for next smash.
 
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TCT~Phantom

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I decided to check how the eshop ranking for Smash DLC is in Japan, and the results might shock some of you lol
If you want to check the data you can change the eshop region in your own switch like I did and see for yourself.

1- Kazuya
2- Fighter Pass 2
3- Steve
4- Pyra/Mythra
5- Fighter Pass 1
6- Joker
7- Sora
8- Piranha Plant
9- Hero
10- Sephiroth
11- Byleth
12- Terry
13- Min Min
14- Sans (lol mii)
15- Banjo Kazooie

1- Sans
2- Creeper
3- Diamond Swordfighter
4- Pig
5- Rathalos
6- Cuphead
7- Bomberman
8- Doom Slayer
9- Erdrick
10- Heihachi
11- Dante
12- Ryo
13- Team Rocket Grunt
14- Octoling
15- Tifa
16- Vault Boy
17- Marie
18- Yu Narukami
19- Altair
20- Slime Hat
21- Nakoruru
22- Ninjara
23- Dragonborn
24- Mega Man EXE
25- Callie
26- Makoto Yuki
27- Shantae
28- Arthur
29- Hunter (MH)
30- Judd
31- Iori
32- Mega Man X
33- Aerith
34- Knuckles
35- Morgana
36- Veronica
37- Rabbid
38- Zero
39- Gil
40- Lloyd
41- Chocobo
42- Felyne
43- Barret
44- Geno
45- Protoman
46- Martial Artist
47- Goemon
48- Travis
49- Akira
50- Tails
51- Jacky
52- Teddie
Honestly shocked to see Hero so low for Japan. I know Dragon Quest is much more popular there. Its almost as shocking as Kazuya being that high. I expected him to do well, but not that well.

It does seem some characters are performing pretty consistently across all regions. Joker, Sora, Aegis, Steve, Sephiroth, and Kazuya all seem very popular. Min Min and Banjo also seem to frequently be in the bottom rung of picks.

Mii Costume wise, I am glad that Doom Slayer was able to do quite well in Japan. I know Doom is not huge over there, so seeing him do well is great. Dante and Sans also performing very consistently so far across all regions.
 

RileyXY1

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Kazuya being 1st is funny

Also, wow, Doomslayer even did well in Japan. #8 out of all the miis. Starting to think he's an extremely likely candidate for next smash.
Due to the series’s excessively violent content, lack of popularity in Japan, and being owned by the same company as Master Chief I think that he’s unlikely.
 

RodNutTakin

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Seeing Bomberman being high in all of the major region Mii Costume download rankings makes me conflicted.
It'd be nice if it helps boost his priority for the next game, but I also feel like another particular Konami character could potentially out-prioritize him...
 
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chocolatejr9

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Just had a thought, since 2025 will be the 40th anni of SMB1, could that be a good time for a "Year of Peach"?

Then again, it'd have to be a "Year of Bowser" too...
Now that you mention it, it DOES kinda feel like they're pushing Peach a bit. Her role in the Mario movie, the new spinoff, being playable in a mainline Mario title... it IS giving off similar vibes to the Year of Luigi.

So, this is kind of a rough sale list for Ultimate's DLC. At least in NA. Happy to see Joker and Sora sold particularly well.

Full list so people dont have to go on twitter.
  1. Fighters Pass Vol. 2
  2. Steve & Alex
  3. Piranha Plant (Unsure if the free pre-order bonus is counted too)
  4. Fighters Pass Vol. 1
  5. Sora
  6. Joker
  7. Kazuya
  8. Sephiroth
  9. Pyra/Mythra
  10. Sans Costume
  11. Cuphead Costume
  12. Byleth
  13. Terry
  14. Banjo & Kazooie
  15. Hero
  16. Min Min
Not surprised Terry didn't do too well. Like, he's an important part of gaming history (especially when it comes to fighting games), but... the only people who knew he even EXISTED were the ones who knew SNK existed, and even then not many people talked about him in the context of Smash.
 

dream1ng

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I never said it was likely, I said it was not an unreasonable thought. Mario or Pokemon are both big enough series that have had massive success stories on the Switch, so either of them getting a look for two newcomers would not be that crazy. It is more likely at the end of the day we get one rather than two, but I would not say it is some ridiculous thought for those two series. Kirby though, yeah it getting two reps is not likely.
Ok? I responded to a post that said if Sakurai isn't involved we'll get two original Kirby newcomers. I said it's unwise to expect any series to get multiple original characters. You said for most series it's unwise, but for a small selection it's reasonable. That casts a dichotomy where expectation is either unwise or reasonable.

I think it can happen, but just on that basis, being unwise to expect isn't precluded. Getting a retro rep would be reasonable, but I don't expect it anymore. With multiple original newcomers, even the big series have had it happen very sparingly. So going in expecting Mario specifically or Pokemon specifically or any specific series to get two, to me, is unwise. That doesn't mean it can't happen.

Maybe Mario is the exception right now because of how it can add both a likely first and third party, who will infringe upon each other less than normal among a series. But even then I would still caution expecting both.
 
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Opossum

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Due to the series’s excessively violent content, lack of popularity in Japan, and being owned by the same company as Master Chief I think that he’s unlikely.
Bayonetta is just as violent if not more so, and the eShop rankings definitively show that his Mii Costume did incredibly well in Japan. None of those are the demerits you claim them to be.
 

RileyXY1

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Bayonetta is just as violent if not more so, and the eShop rankings definitively show that his Mii Costume did incredibly well in Japan. None of those are the demerits you claim them to be.
It doesn't matter when Master Chief exists (and Doom and Halo are even owned by the same company now) and it makes more sense to add Master Chief than Doomguy because Halo is far more iconic and well known than Doom is and Halo is also much less known for gory violence and satanic content.
 

Schnee117

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Slayer has the leg in the door already, if they had a problem with violence he wouldn't even have been a costume to be honest. Sure it's a costume and it's not nearly as violent but at the end of the day you are still representing and promoting a series with lots of blood and gore in it.

Also trying to do the name get around with him doesn't work because you have to type out Doom anyway lmao

Seeing Bomberman being high in all of the major region Mii Costume download rankings makes me conflicted.
It'd be nice if it helps boost his priority for the next game, but I also feel like another particular Konami character could potentially out-prioritize him...
Nah the only ones to worry about are Alucard and, at a stretch, Raiden but Bomberman has the advantage over both imo.

It doesn't matter when Master Chief exists (and Doom and Halo are even owned by the same company now) and it makes more sense to add Master Chief than Doomguy because Halo is far more iconic and well known than Doom is and Halo is also much less known for gory violence and satanic content.
Doom already has a foot in the door which is a major advantage over Chief.
Also Halo 1-3 have intense body horror going on and contain heavy biblical references.
 
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Opossum

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It doesn't matter when Master Chief exists (and Doom and Halo are even owned by the same company now) and it makes more sense to add Master Chief than Doomguy because Halo is far more iconic and well known than Doom is and Halo is also much less known for gory violence and satanic content.
Ah yes, the franchise that's known for staying away from controversial religious iconography.

Halo.
 

RileyXY1

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And I don't know if the ESRB will even allow them to add M-rated characters anymore unless they raise the age rating to a T at least.
 

Aaayei

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It doesn't matter when Master Chief exists (and Doom and Halo are even owned by the same company now) and it makes more sense to add Master Chief than Doomguy because Halo is far more iconic and well known than Doom is and Halo is also much less known for gory violence and satanic content.
Doom is practically anti-satanic though. The demons are the bad guys you kill. Also one of the devs of the original game was Mormon, and clearly he didn't have an issue with all this
 
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RileyXY1

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Doom is practically anti-demon though. They are the bad guys you kill. Also shout-out to one of the devs of the original game being Mormon
The prominent satanic imagery did make a lot of Christians angry when the game first came out.
 

Megadoomer

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It doesn't matter when Master Chief exists (and Doom and Halo are even owned by the same company now) and it makes more sense to add Master Chief than Doomguy because Halo is far more iconic and well known than Doom is and Halo is also much less known for gory violence and satanic content.
People could also argue that it makes more sense to add Master Chief (the face of Xbox) over Banjo-Kazooie (who hadn't had a game for roughly a decade by that point, and who was best known for a pair of N64 titles from 18-20 years ago) or Steve from Minecraft (a generic avatar that people would change at the first opportunity), and yet those two got in before MC.

There's an argument to be made for either Doomguy or Master Chief; it seems weird to automatically dismiss one of them for reasons that have been proven wrong either through observable evidence (in this case, the relative popularity of the Doomguy Mii costume in Japan - getting in the top ten for best-selling Mii costumes indicates that there's an audience) or what's already been established. (the inclusion of Metal Gear Solid, where several characters are bloodily killed or mutilated, and Bayonetta, where the main character summons demons, indicates that those aren't issues that prevent characters from getting in, and that blood/violence can be toned down - it's not like Gray Fox is slashing people in half when summoned as an assist trophy)

The prominent satanic imagery did make a lot of Christians angry when the game first came out.
If we're going by that criteria (religious people being angry about something), then we'd have to remove Pokemon, at the very least.
 
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dream1ng

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"Doom isn't big in Japan" mfs when they see anime dog girl


I recall saying Slayer would do well there based off of her alone actually :terryhat:
I like Doom Slayer, and would be happy were he included, but Doom genuinely isn't that big in Japan, and yet I guess he would do well.

Due to the series’s excessively violent content, lack of popularity in Japan, and being owned by the same company as Master Chief I think that he’s unlikely.
1. You do know the crux of Doom Slayer's character isn't how much blood a demon explodes into, right? It's basically just being an angry, unkillable **** who carries around a preposterous amount of weaponry and has no time for anyone's ****. The most violent thing he actually does, the Glory Kills, only showed up recently.
2. I would've agreed here, but he seems popular enough. And he's super popular in the rest of the world, it looks like.
3. Well, we may not get Master Chief. And even if we did, we may get more than one character from the company. Square went up by at least two, arguably three.

Seeing Bomberman being high in all of the major region Mii Costume download rankings makes me conflicted.
It'd be nice if it helps boost his priority for the next game, but I also feel like another particular Konami character could potentially out-prioritize him...
It's possible, but I don't think there's a large stable that would do that. Frankly, I think the only one who stands somewhat of a chance is Alucard.

I know people will raise Contra, but I just don't think that series kept its footing long enough, nor are the characters demanded enough.

And regarding Pyramid Head... I just think it's likelier they opt for Bomberman over Silent Hill.
 

MrMcNuts

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While y'all argue bout Doom and Chief I'm a sit in my corner as the biggest Rayman fan praising the fact Altair and rabbids miis didn't crack top 10 on any mii list lmao


Jokes aside I think like others have said here Doom sold well supposedly as a mii and is the more requested character it seems. I think for the most part they have gone with fan faves first when it comes to third parties, unless you wanna count Geno but even then I feel like cloud was more requested prior to making it in. I'd prefer chief myself but I would not be surprised at all if Doom makes it in first
 

RileyXY1

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Although I'm mostly expecting the Dragonborn from Skyrim to get in if we do get a Bethesda rep at all. I'm not expecting the FPS genre to ever be repped at all, due to the genre's lack of popularity in Japan.
 

RodNutTakin

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Nah the only ones to worry about are Alucard and, at a stretch, Raiden but Bomberman has the advantage over both imo.
I was thinking actually about Konami getting a SHMUP rep because that's one of the game genres that the Japanese will kiss the ground it walks on, and Konami pretty much birthed the side-scrolling SHMUP genre with Gradius and had a LOT of SHMUPs to their name in general when they were still focusing on arcades.
Though I was specifically thinking about Tako from Parodius, because he'd be actually be able to animate like a fighter unlike the Vic Viper, while still representing the Gradius franchise as a whole even beyond his home spinoff, since his weapon configuration is based off of Type D from Gradius II.
Sure, Bomberman has like hundreds of games, but Gradius and its spinoffs have been referenced and homaged so many times, and I'm sure Sakurai loves them quite a bit considering the Galactic Nova sequence in Kirby Super Star. I could see Bomberman getting the shaft again in favor of Gradius and Parodius.
 

Megadoomer

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While y'all argue bout Doom and Chief I'm a sit in my corner as the biggest Rayman fan praising the fact Altair and rabbids miis didn't crack top 10 on any mii list lmao


Jokes aside I think like others have said here Doom sold well supposedly as a mii and is the more requested character it seems. I think for the most part they have gone with fan faves first when it comes to third parties, unless you wanna count Geno but even then I feel like cloud was more requested prior to making it in. I'd prefer chief myself but I would not be surprised at all if Doom makes it in first
That reminds me - the new Mario & Rabbids game released DLC today. Is that the DLC that's supposed to have Rayman in it, or is he not showing up until later? (I haven't played any of the Mario & Rabbids games; I feel like I'd enjoy them, but I guess I haven't gotten around to buying one)
 

MrMcNuts

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That reminds me - the new Mario & Rabbids game released DLC today. Is that the DLC that's supposed to have Rayman in it, or is he not showing up until later? (I haven't played any of the Mario & Rabbids games; I feel like I'd enjoy them, but I guess I haven't gotten around to buying one)
The one that's out today is the last Spark Hunter. Not quite Rayman yet but I'm enjoying it so far! Rayman's is up next though!

Edit: as for the game itself I think it's a pretty great game. Definitely one of the better looking games on switch and even prior to Rayman being in yet it's full of charm and pretty fun start to finish
 
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Schnee117

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While y'all argue bout Doom and Chief I'm a sit in my corner as the biggest Rayman fan praising the fact Altair and rabbids miis didn't crack top 10 on any mii list lmao


Jokes aside I think like others have said here Doom sold well supposedly as a mii and is the more requested character it seems. I think for the most part they have gone with fan faves first when it comes to third parties, unless you wanna count Geno but even then I feel like cloud was more requested prior to making it in. I'd prefer chief myself but I would not be surprised at all if Doom makes it in first
Chief and Doom would both make it to be honest.
Like, that's an extremely popular match up in addition to Chief v Samus and having a triple threat between them.
It's just that Doom has a headstart with a costume already.

Altair actually performed extremely well, I believe he'd have done much better if they opted for Ezio however.

Although I'm mostly expecting the Dragonborn from Skyrim to get in if we do get a Bethesda rep at all. I'm not expecting the FPS genre to ever be repped at all, due to the genre's lack of popularity in Japan.

Stop talking about things you clearly know nothing about
 

True Blue Warrior

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So what do you guys think the sales for the DLC Fighter means for the next title in terms of the Fighter Pass 1 and 2 characters?
 
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Opossum

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Although I'm mostly expecting the Dragonborn from Skyrim to get in if we do get a Bethesda rep at all. I'm not expecting the FPS genre to ever be repped at all, due to the genre's lack of popularity in Japan.
You do realize that games like Apex Legends are like, super popular in Japan, right?
 

MrMcNuts

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Altair actually performed extremely well, I believe he'd have done much better if they opted for Ezio however.
Best he did was 14 in the US which is decent considering how many miis there are but that's not extremely well really
 

MrMcNuts

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Sans is the only mii that consistently outsold fighters in all regions. I'm extremely confident he's getting in next time.
Yeah if the list is true then sans and Cuphead are the only ones that did insanely well to go toe to toe with fighters.

I feel like even going in order of top 10 miis there's probably a significant drop off of sales numbers of them compared to fighter numbers

Edit: not that the other top 10 miis don't matter but I feel like the fact sans and Cuphead was able to perform that high means eyes would mostly be on them perhaps
 
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True Blue Warrior

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I wonder if the sales popularity list for the Smash DLC is based off all-time popularity or current popularity (as in the data is within the last couple of weeks or something like that)?
 

Wunderwaft

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I wonder if the sales popularity list for the Smash DLC is based off all-time popularity or current popularity (as in the data is within the last couple of weeks or something like that)?
Piranha Plant kinda proves this counts all-time and not just recently. It was a time limited free character during the first month of the game, there's no way it would be as high as it was if not for the freebie during the first month of the game.
 

dream1ng

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And I don't know if the ESRB will even allow them to add M-rated characters anymore unless they raise the age rating to a T at least.
Well if you don't know you shouldn't act like they will.

Characters aren't rated by the ESRB anyway. Games are. If Doom Slayer does nothing to provoke a higher rating, there's no ground on which to raise the rating based solely on his presence.

The prominent satanic imagery did make a lot of Christians angry when the game first came out.
Pokemon made a lot of Christians angry when the game first came out

So what do you guys think the sales for the DLC Fighter means for the next title in terms of the Fighter Pass 1 and 2 characters?
I think they may look to the top costume sales a bit, but probably not as much as people are going to expect. Like how the ballot only really affected Banjo and Sora (for DLC).

Yeah if the list is true then sans and Cuphead are the only ones that did insanely well to go toe to toe with fighters.

I feel like even going in order of top 10 miis there's probably a significant drop off of sales numbers of them compared to fighter numbers

Edit: not that the other top 10 miis don't matter but I feel like the fact sans and Cuphead was able to perform that high means eyes would mostly be on them perhaps
Tbf their package was better than the other costumes given the music, and they were like a seventh a price as a fighter.

Not that Sans at least doesn't stand a good chance in the future.

I wonder if the sales popularity list for the Smash DLC is based off all-time popularity or current popularity (as in the data is within the last couple of weeks or something like that)?
That's what I'm wondering too, given the complete lack of any indication of a gradually decreasing install base that would benefit the earlier stuff, which just naturally happens over time. Not that I'm saying Sora would be at the bottom or something.
 

chocolatejr9

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Seeing the Rathalos armor consistently in the Top 10, if not Top 5, of Mii costumes puts a smile on my face.
I'm telling y'all, baby Rathalos is a thing. They can add playable Rathalos AND make it work!
Best he did was 14 in the US which is decent considering how many miis there are but that's not extremely well really
True, but he ALMOST cracked the top 10, so it's not like he did badly either...
 

dream1ng

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Piranha Plant kinda proves this counts all-time and not just recently. It was a time limited free character during the first month of the game, there's no way it would be as high as it was if not for the freebie during the first month of the game.
Piranha Plant would be that high because he comes in neither Fighter Pass, so, if you want all the characters, he'd have to be bought individually while sales of the others would be subsumed by the full pass purchases.
 

True Blue Warrior

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Piranha Plant kinda proves this counts all-time and not just recently. It was a time limited free character during the first month of the game, there's no way it would be as high as it was if not for the freebie during the first month of the game.
I see. However

Piranha Plant would be that high because he comes in neither Fighter Pass, so, if you want all the characters, he'd have to be bought individually while sales of the others would be subsumed by the full pass purchases.
This also makes sense. Regardless, this does not mean that Min Min sold poorly considering it was confirmed by Nintendo that Fighter Pass 2 sold very well and she was the only character in that pass at the time.
 
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True Blue Warrior

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That would be tracking the sales of the Pass, not the individual characters.
Sorry, what I meant to say was that at that time before Steve was released(Fiscal Year 2021 Quarter 2 end) Min Min was the only character in that pass and it still sold incredibly well. I hope I'm clear now.
 
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