Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[Guynamednelson]

Pretty much all the first party games I played back then are already represented in Smash so that’s one reason I tend to favor third party characters.

Frankly in the 80s third parties pretty much had no choice but to make NES games regardless of Nintendo of America's draconian restrictions. Way more people owned an NES than a Master System or Atari 7800, and PCs were considered too weak to handle games like Super Mario Bros. without obvious sacrifices:

On the other hand, in the 90s/2000s third-party devs were attracted to Sega being less strict than NoA, and PS1/2 discs holding more data than N64 carts/Gamecube mini-discs on top of those two consoles being more popular, so you can see why 90s/2000s Nintendo fans would be more Nintendo-inclined.

 

[Will]

Alright, so we all know Agumon would be the first Smash rep, but are there any others we should consider?

Renamon for the furries

 

[Gengar84]

Alright, so we all know Agumon would be the first Smash rep, but are there any others we should consider?

My favorites are Ogremon and Meramon but I don’t know how much of a chance either really has. I don’t particularly care for Agumon but it makes sense as it’s the mascot of the series.

 

[Opossum]

Agumon would 100% be the first, yeah, but beyond that there are other popular and iconic options, like Renamon, Patamon, or Veemon.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

What else is it supposed to be? Agumon is cool. I used to be “against” the idea, but that was for stupid reasons that don’t matter anymore.

But if you were to make, say Agumon, a character, would you build his move set based off of the anime? Or do the actual games give us good content to work with?

I feel Digivolution is the key to what makes Digimon the most interesting. That said, the Virtual Pet stuff is cool too. They'd be kind of hard to combine both as outright mechanics. Digivolution is what Agumon is most popular for these days, but the V-Pet stuff isn't something to ignore. My thought is that something like Renamon could be brought it as a second character focused more on the V-Pet stuff by using the Card System instead, which would give it more value and make it based upon a battling mechanic, while showing off some of the older card game in return(a notable part of Digimon as well).

 

[fogbadge]

Agumon would 100% be the first, yeah, but beyond that there are other popular and iconic options, like Renamon, Patamon, or Veemon.

renamon debuted in the anime

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Agumon would 100% be the first, yeah, but beyond that there are other popular and iconic options, like Renamon, Patamon, or Veemon.

All awesome options. Agumon's easily my favorite, though I doubt all the variations would even work as costumes. The three Toy variants are extremely changed up models that only use the same skeleton, and are a lot of work. But we have SantaAgumon and BushiAgumon for other easy designs. There's also the Savers design which while a bit different, just can be the armbands only. So with regular, Snow, and Black, you get overall 8 quick ones with the last two having unique head pieces. I also like the Hakase set, but they overall are a lot more different than just adding an armband, headpiece, or color change. Albeit, Bushi also has a kimono, but that might not even be necessary. It depends what the animations are too.

I would love to see variants for the Evolutions based upon these, but you could only do semi-color changes without problems. Outside of technically a cutscene Final Smash(WarGreymon as the base), where all they'd be doing is changing the animation but being identical. So stuff like ShineGreymon can work. Otherwise, the X-Antibody versions are pretty much the same in practice. You just wouldn't give special ones to some like Bushi or Santa. There's a lot of ways to go about it, really~

 

[Opossum]

renamon debuted in the anime

So did Lucario.

 

[fogbadge]

So did Lucario.

well with lucario we’re not 100% sure whether or not he was made for the anime in the games but with renamon we know she was. it’s a very grey area

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

So did Lucario.

This. It's irrelevant. They're characters for a game series that's a multimedia series.

We also had Tamers games coming out quite quickly too. ...With one a month and a half later on the PlayStation. Sadly Japanese only, but.

The various anime characters are generally made to be used in later games as is(whether it's a cameo or a more direct appearance). About the only ones who weren't too obvious is the crazy Digifuses, and only some of them, as many are notable ones as treated as the normal progression of form changes(Shoutmon'x X1-7 forms, for instance).

Pokemon only slightly does it differently by having it as a straight advertisement of the games. Or at least used to. Digimon was a bit different as it did its own thing with unique lines that weren't always based upon the upcoming games so much as games were based upon the upcoming anime. But they tie in regardless.

 

[Hadokeyblade]

I only realized recently that there's a reason that Darth views retro reps differently than the rest of us. For most of us, the NES is entirely a product of the history. All games from back then have the same value, essentially zero. Darth actually lived through it, the NES actually registers as a part of gaming to him. Suggesting Balloon Fighter as a NES rep is like saying we need Sushi Striker as a Switch Rep. I don't really know what to make of this disparity, but it was a realization that kinda hit me like a brick.

Jokes on you, i think Sushi strikers was good.

What else is it supposed to be? Agumon is cool. I used to be “against” the idea, but that was for stupid reasons that don’t matter anymore.

But if you were to make, say Agumon, a character, would you build his move set based off of the anime? Or do the actual games give us good content to work with?

I imagine he'd be like sm4sh Charizard but smol and with a Digi-volution mechanic pulled from Digimon's short lived fighting game spin off.

Build up a bar of energy and when it's filled he digivolves into Wargreymon, who has a different moveset, once the bar goes down he turns back into Agumon. So like a transforming character with a gimmick involved with the transformation

And Omnimon as a final smash

 

[Will]

I imagine he'd be like sm4sh Charizard but smol and with a Digi-volution mechanic pulled from Digimon's short lived fighting game spin off.

Build up a bar of energy and when it's filled he digivolves into Wargreymon, who has a different moveset, once the bar goes down he turns back into Agumon. So like a transforming character with a gimmick involved with the transformation

And there’s a super special once-a-stock move that only unlocks after you reach 100% too, right?

 

[fogbadge]

Jokes on you, i think Sushi strikers was good.

i'm not alone

And Omnimon as a final smash

yes

 

[Wonder Smash]

He's harsh and almost rude, but not entirely wrong, IMO. I would like to see half of those characters as assists, though.

And we should remember that the Ice Climbers are not better than the characters on this list: before Melee they were no more famous and their one and only game was certainly not better received. Although I don't know if it's a point for this retro-picks or against the IC.

In the Ice Climbers case, it should be worth pointing out that their game did sell over a million copies. Some of the games on that list did too.

But as for the list itself.

For fun, a list of retro fighters I think would've been fun to see in Ultimate/would be fun to see in HYPOTHETICAL NEXT SMASH GAME

Spoiler: The List

TAKAMARU:
The classic go-to, retro star of Smash 4 speculation. Having played his game, there's a lot you can do with him.

MIKE JONES:
StarTropics is probably the best first party Nintendo game with absolutely nothing in Smash which is a shame IMO. Not being released in Japan is such a huge roadblock for him though

BALLOON FIGHTER:
Balloon Fighter would be fun, and would continue the blackbox representation like Ice Climbers and Duck Hunt. People will say VILLAGER UP B but they don't care if they wanted both they'd just do it lol

MUDDY MOLE:
My boy, who's still my number one pick. I think you could make a really interesting moveset with him.

PRO WRESTLING:
Because Incineroar's an asshole. Just kidding, I consider this the best of the blackbox NES games that's not named ''Super Mario Bros.'' and would love to see it get some love.

DONKEY KONG JR:
A bit of a weird pick, but he's synonymous with Nintendo's old days and could make use of their various arcade games.

A few others:
-Ayumi Tachibana (Don't consider her retro anymore after the remakes)
-Excitebike (This isn't the popular opinion but Excitebike isn't retro either, though it's been longer since the last game came out)
-Mach Rider
-Sable Prince
-Ice Hockey Team/Volleyball Girl
-Dion/Max/Jack
-Tin Star

Just a few options, there's a ton of possibilities

Out of all the characters on this list, Takamaru and Prince of Sable are the best ones.

 

[Laniv]

For fun, a list of retro fighters I think would've been fun to see in Ultimate/would be fun to see in HYPOTHETICAL NEXT SMASH GAME

Spoiler: The List

TAKAMARU:
The classic go-to, retro star of Smash 4 speculation. Having played his game, there's a lot you can do with him.

MIKE JONES:
StarTropics is probably the best first party Nintendo game with absolutely nothing in Smash which is a shame IMO. Not being released in Japan is such a huge roadblock for him though

BALLOON FIGHTER:
Balloon Fighter would be fun, and would continue the blackbox representation like Ice Climbers and Duck Hunt. People will say VILLAGER UP B but they don't care if they wanted both they'd just do it lol

MUDDY MOLE:
My boy, who's still my number one pick. I think you could make a really interesting moveset with him.

PRO WRESTLING:
Because Incineroar's an asshole. Just kidding, I consider this the best of the blackbox NES games that's not named ''Super Mario Bros.'' and would love to see it get some love.

DONKEY KONG JR:
A bit of a weird pick, but he's synonymous with Nintendo's old days and could make use of their various arcade games.

A few others:
-Ayumi Tachibana (Don't consider her retro anymore after the remakes)
-Excitebike (This isn't the popular opinion but Excitebike isn't retro either, though it's been longer since the last game came out)
-Mach Rider
-Sable Prince
-Ice Hockey Team/Volleyball Girl
-Dion/Max/Jack
-Tin Star

Just a few options, there's a ton of possibilities

Muddy Mole and Sablé Prince would be fun, Balloon Fighter feels like such an obvious choice were it not for Villager, and I'm gonna be honest, I was genuinely surprised to see Takamaru as still an assist.

Speaking of which, they really should've brought back Excitebiker as an assist.

 

[Sucumbio]

Contra and Double Dragon both stand out to me as missing classic nes characters that I have strong memories of from my childhood. Granted they're 3rd party but still...

 

[fogbadge]

it's always nice talking about retro characters for smash and being reminded there are even older people on here

 

[HyperSomari64]

We are only two years for the 360 to become retro.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

As far as retro characters, I always thought that between the series getting a few NES titles and the franchise's overall significance within the RPG genre and PC market that the Avatar from Ultima would be a solid choice. While they might be received as redundant given the presence of Hero, I'd imagine between the contrasting moves/spells from their home game and the possibility of using their companions' various abilities there's probably something worthwhile there. It was never very big in Japan, but a Western popular RPG series is a novelty in and of itself for Smash.

 

[CommanderZaktan]

For Agumon, should he have 1 or 2 digi evolutions?

 

[fogbadge]

For Agumon, should he have 1 or 2 digi evolutions?

only one, i fear anymore may be over complicating it. though you should have another as a final smash

 

[Will]

Contra and Double Dragon both stand out to me as missing classic nes characters that I have strong memories of from my childhood. Granted they're 3rd party but still...

flash forward to 2026 and every post for the next few days post-bill + lance echo reveal is “I DIDNT KNOW CONTRA HAD A NAME”

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

flash forward to 2026 and every post for the next few days post-bill + lance echo reveal is “I DIDNT KNOW CONTRA HAD A NAME”

Which would be foolish; everyone knows its that shadow beast looking thing that's Contra.

 

[Will]

Which would be foolish; everyone knows its that shadow beast looking thing that's Contra.

Metroid Contra

 

[SPEN18]

On the first party NES retro reps.

To me Excitebiker is kind of the missing puzzle piece. The glaring omission on the first party NES list. After getting them I'd be pretty much satisfied from that era, and in general I would rather focus on "retro" reps from the other consoles. Behind Excitebike on the 1P NES list it's pretty much just generic sports games, one-offs or near-one-offs that scratched out ~1mil sales once but then hardly ever made an impact again, and then some JP-only items. I wouldn't hate like a Takamaru but it probably needs to come along with at least a plan to do more with the character.

And, yes, discussion of 1P NES reps inevitably comes with the discussion of whether Ice Climbers should be retained. In its favor is the ~1mil sales mark it obtained, but against it is not appearing ever again and not exactly being genre- or era-defining in any way. The issue for me is that Ice Climber kind of fails to stand out tbh among all the other stuff on the NES with comparable performance, novelty, and notoriety. Honestly a lot like Astral Chain if it never gets a sequel...did just over a mil on its first go, was sort of a novel game at least among Nintendo-published stuff, but not really era-defining and relatively far down on the console sales list.

Oh, yeah, and I should also add that the Duck Hunt Dog absolutely earned his spot. Duck Hunt was a very novel, culturally relevant, and popular game with enormous sales (even if its sales were aided somewhat by it being a pack-in game). And the Dog himself was a huge part of the game's character.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Admittedly Ice Climbers only got in through circumstance. Ice Climber as a game does not have the merits to stand out on it's own. It needed Sakurai to be looking for that specific unique NES rep he was looking for in Melee.

Other retro characters like Mr. Game & Watch, R.O.B, Duck Hunt and Pit (formally) all have their merits either from either being stand out titles, being popular or being iconic hardware. Ice Climbers just got lucky.

And... that's not a bad thing. Ice Climbers making it in against all odds adds to the fun of the game. They do have their fans, and they've taken up an entirely new identity through Smash. Not every inclusion has to be this stand out monument of gaming. Gaming is a lot more than just the ones that make it into the history books.

are fine. Be chill.





Also I will not tolerate Mole Mania slander in this house.

 

[Hadokeyblade]

only one, i fear anymore may be over complicating it. though you should have another as a final smash

Digimon being able to change between thir stronger and weaker forms is a staple of the franchise, so it makes perfect sense to have one evolution be part of it's gameplay gimmick and Omnimon being the final smash.

 

[Soy_Man]

On the first party NES retro reps.

To me Excitebiker is kind of the missing puzzle piece. The glaring omission on the first party NES list. After getting them I'd be pretty much satisfied from that era, and in general I would rather focus on "retro" reps from the other consoles. Behind Excitebike on the 1P NES list it's pretty much just generic sports games, one-offs or near-one-offs that scratched out ~1mil sales once but then hardly ever made an impact again, and then some JP-only items. I wouldn't hate like a Takamaru but it probably needs to come along with at least a plan to do more with the character.

And, yes, discussion of 1P NES reps inevitably comes with the discussion of whether Ice Climbers should be retained. In its favor is the ~1mil sales mark it obtained, but against it is not appearing ever again and not exactly being genre- or era-defining in any way. The issue for me is that Ice Climber kind of fails to stand out tbh among all the other stuff on the NES with comparable performance, novelty, and notoriety. Honestly a lot like Astral Chain if it never gets a sequel...did just over a mil on its first go, was sort of a novel game at least among Nintendo-published stuff, but not really era-defining and relatively far down on the console sales list.

Oh, yeah, and I should also add that the Duck Hunt Dog absolutely earned his spot. Duck Hunt was a very novel, culturally relevant, and popular game with enormous sales (even if its sales were aided somewhat by it being a pack-in game). And the Dog himself was a huge part of the game's character.

I can see Ice climbers sticking around, despite their game having no cultural relevance, because they have a neat gimmick and they're cute. As for "guy who rides a dirtbike", I don't find his character or aesthetic at all appealing like I do with Duck Hunt Dog or any other NES representative already in Smash. And if Sakurai can't do anything interesting with Exitebike than I don't want him.

 

[SPEN18]

Honestly I wonder why Sakurai didn't just put Pit in Melee to fill the NES retro spot, especially since he ended up adding Pit just one game later anyway (to my knowledge there is no Sakurai quote on this, I mean with respect to Pit being a possibility or not for Melee specifically). Plus the core of Pit's Brawl moveset seems like it would've fit just fine in Melee. I guess he sold out for the gimmick potential with the Ice Climbers...in a game where they were strapped for resources and dev time to the max! Out of all the things to give a complicated moveset to in that situation and in that context...I don't get it, personally.

Edit: I should add the obvious point that at that time there was no way to know that Pit would go on to have a much brighter future than Ice Climbers. At the time of Melee, IC and KI had comparable sales, but Pit was still more popular if I am not mistaken and also could have come with a simpler moveset in a game that was already struggling hard with filling the roster without resorting to extensive cloning.

 

[YeppersPeppers]

The idea of a little dude on a dirtbike zoomin' around doing cool BMX stunts for aerials, kicking dirt up with the wheels and whatnot sounds sick as hell. Excitebiker is one of my top Nintendo picks. People will bring up Mach Rider as being a "cooler" pick that can do nearly all the same stuff + more and I totally agree with that objectively, but I personally prefer the charm of Excitebike a bit more (plus it being a more notable IP compared to Mach Rider).

 

[chocolatejr9]

The idea of a little dude on a dirtbike zoomin' around doing cool BMX stunts for aerials, kicking dirt up with the wheels and whatnot sounds sick as hell. Excitebiker is one of my top Nintendo picks. People will bring up Mach Rider as being a "cooler" pick that can do nearly all the same stuff + more and I totally agree with that objectively, but I personally prefer the charm of Excitebike a bit more (plus it being a more notable IP compared to Mach Rider).

I have a pitch for a Mach Rider reboot, if anybody's interested. Could help boost the popularity.

 

[dream1ng]

Kind of a moot point since the retro spot doesn't exist anymore, and hasn't since at least Brawl, but possibly even Melee.

Not that you can't still talk about NES characters, but I don't see getting any unless they can function as another type of addition, like DHD did.

As for cuts, as original multiple game vets who are usually the sole rep from the series, I can't imagine any would be at the top of the cutting pile (this is also including G&W, ROB and DHD, though they aren't actual 'retro rep' additions). But most also aren't, like... huge draws or faces of giant series, so... them getting cut probably hinges on how deep the cuts go. I don't think they're among the most expendable, but I also don't think they're totally safe either if we get a reboot.

Though I don't see Pit getting cut in any situation. I think he's genuinely safe.

 

[SPEN18]

I feel that a motorbiker character would be fun for a lot of people. It's fine to not personally like a character, game, or moveset concept, but not personally liking them is not a substantive argument against an addition.

On Mach Rider, yeah, the game is just not on par at all with Excitebike. The only reason people push them is being purportedly "more interesting" moveset-wise. Though honestly Mach Rider basically just has two additional things: firing a gun and the whole "burst into pixels and reform" thing. The former is rather inessential to the motorbiker niche and at worst might take away from the emphasis on zooming around the stage; it's not clear that the latter would even be in the moveset and if it was it would probably be like one special move. The oil slicks or whatever could be used just as well by Excitebiker.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Honestly I wonder why Sakurai didn't just put Pit in Melee to fill the NES retro spot, especially since he ended up adding Pit just one game later anyway (to my knowledge there is no Sakurai quote on this, I mean with respect to Pit being a possibility or not for Melee specifically). Plus the core of Pit's Brawl moveset seems like it would've fit just fine in Melee. I guess he sold out for the gimmick potential with the Ice Climbers...in a game where they were strapped for resources and dev time to the max! Out of all the things to give a complicated moveset to in that situation and in that context...I don't get it, personally.

Edit: I should add the obvious point that at that time there was no way to know that Pit would go on to have a much brighter future than Ice Climbers. At the time of Melee, IC and KI had comparable sales, but Pit was still more popular if I am not mistaken and also could have come with a simpler moveset in a game that was already struggling hard with filling the roster without resorting to extensive cloning.

I have no way to prove this, but I'm willing to bet that Sakurai wanted a "NES exclusive" character for the rep. Of Myths and Monsters might have affected that.

There's also the possibility that Pit wasn't surprising enough. Pit was generally popular. Sakurai may have wanted a more left field pick.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

The NES retro figures are generally fascinating because its an era of anything goes first party characters with so many that didn't really come back back; a phenomenon that felt much rarer after this. There would be notable one shots or attempts at new series that really didn't go anywhere after their one gen in the last couple of decades (Stunt Race FX, Eternal Darkness, Another Code, Dillons Rolling Western, Hotel Dusk, etc) but that 83-90 period is just rife with them. So much of that first party library on the NES/Famicom is an interesting what if about what could have defined Nintendo had fortunes with certain titles gone another way.

 

[dream1ng]

I feel that a motorbiker character would be fun for a lot of people. It's fine to not personally like a character, game, or moveset concept, but not personally liking them is not a substantive argument against an addition.

On Mach Rider, yeah, the game is just not on par at all with Excitebike. The only reason people push them is being purportedly "more interesting" moveset-wise. Though honestly Mach Rider basically just has two additional things: firing a gun and the whole "burst into pixels and reform" thing. The former is rather inessential to the motorbiker niche and at worst might take away from the emphasis on zooming around the stage; it's not clear that the latter would even be in the moveset and if it was it would probably be like one special move. The oil slicks or whatever could be used just as well by Excitebiker.

I think Mach Rider is just more conducive to popularity since he has a "cooler" design, wields weaponry and gets off the bike (though I guess technically Excitebiker has as well). Once upon a time people also mused about that series getting a revival.

Though tbf, Excitebike has continued to get games, albeit infrequently. Does that still make it a retro?

And there was also the Grinch leak, though Mach Rider wasn't really most peoples' focus on that one.

Personally I think Sakurai would have an easier time creating a moveset for Mach Rider, but sure, both can be feasible. However... neither really stands a chance without new games, let's be real.

I have no way to prove this, but I'm willing to bet that Sakurai wanted a "NES exclusive" character for the rep. Of Myths and Monsters might have affected that.

There's also the possibility that Pit wasn't surprising enough. Pit was generally popular. Sakurai may have wanted a more left field pick.

On top of that, from the candidates we've heard Sakurai broach for that spot, it seems like it wasn't just NES, but it was mostly quite early NES. Ice Climber, Balloon Fighter, Excitebike, Bubbles, Urban Champion.

To be fair, Ayumi was considered as well. Though that may not necessarily have been for the retro spot, it could've been like Marth, since FDC did continue onto the SNES, which... wasn't actually that removed from Melee's development. But I don't recall hearing about Pit or Mach Rider or Takamaru or Sukapon going up for that position.

 

[SPEN18]

I have no way to prove this, but I'm willing to bet that Sakurai wanted a "NES exclusive" character for the rep. Of Myths and Monsters might have affected that.

There's also the possibility that Pit wasn't surprising enough. Pit was generally popular. Sakurai may have wanted a more left field pick.

Maybe. Hard to say. I mean, OMaM (ha ha, same acronym as the band) was still years old at the time of Melee and was a submil handheld title. And Pit, while popular, would still have been fairly surprising I think, given his lack of games at the time and the fact that he'd be taking a spot on a roster missing several other big-time picks like Wario, Diddy, and Dedede.

Though tbf, Excitebike has continued to get games, albeit infrequently. Does that still make it a retro?

If Excitebiker were to get in, it would definitely be primarily to celebrate the NES title (barring Excitebike getting a new release); the other releases in the series are decidedly low key in comparison (though the N64 game did 2mil). It's worth noting that Sakurai chose to use the sprites for the Brawl AT.
In any case, I doubt the roster deciders have such a rigid definition of what qualifies to fill a potential "retro" spot; it's clear at least to me that Excitebiker in Smash would be drawing heavily on the NES appearance, and could easily be designed to fit in with the spirit of an "NES retro" pick. And if Excitebiker were to get in by filling a slot for a "surprise and/or wacky" pick, then it literally wouldn't matter if it's considered an "NES retro" rep or not.

neither really stands a chance without new games, let's be real.

Eh, I wouldn't quite say that...if we're looking at characters in the same mold as Duck Hunt, Excitebiker fits the bill pretty well. It's just clear in retrospect that Duck Hunt would get the first nod out of the two because of those sales and more widespread recognizability.

 

[Sucumbio]

Admittedly, I attributed the Kid Icarus Franchise's inclusion in Brawl as a sort of nod to North America's affinity for Captain N though the design is different I had always figured his "popularity" was due to the cartoon rather than the game (not a great game lol.)

 

[dream1ng]

If Excitebiker were to get in, it would definitely be primarily to celebrate the NES title (barring Excitebike getting a new release); the other releases in the series are decidedly low key in comparison (though the N64 game did 2mil). It's worth noting that Sakurai chose to use the sprites for the Brawl AT.
In any case, I doubt the roster deciders have such a rigid definition of what qualifies to fill a potential "retro" spot; it's clear at least to me that Excitebiker in Smash would be drawing heavily on the NES appearance, and could easily be designed to fit in with the spirit of an "NES retro" pick. And if Excitebiker were to get in by filling a slot for a "surprise and/or wacky" pick, then it literally wouldn't matter if it's considered an "NES retro" rep or not.

Well, the retro spot isn't a thing anymore, so he wouldn't get in on that basis. I'm more speaking on how the definition of retro is used for Smash, being "an old character without any titles past the 'retro era'" (bar re-releases and cameos) yet doesn't actually apply to this character.

Pac-Man is a character who has no(?) material from anything past Pac-Land, but... he's not a retro character. He's a character that existed in that era, but he's continued to get games, so he isn't seen as such.

The Excite series has continued past the NES era. There was the 64 game, Excitetruck, Excitebots, and the WiiWare title. Maybe there was more. It's perceived as retro, and therein people would probably count him as a retro character... but the series isn't really retro. I mean it's had three games since the last F-Zero. All of its titles except the first have been in the 2000s.

Eh, I wouldn't quite say that...if we're looking at characters in the same mold as Duck Hunt, Excitebiker fits the bill pretty well. It's just clear in retrospect that Duck Hunt would get the first nod out of the two because of those sales and more widespread recognizability.

I guess it could be a surprise pick. I doubt it would be... it's an open-ended and difficult to anticipate category... and Excitebiker has... middling recognition compared to picks like DHD and PP (especially the further we proceed), but... I guess it's possible. Personally I'm not going to hold my breath.

But tbf trying to devise a moveset for a character who spends the entire time on a bike seems like something current Sakurai may find fun where Melee-era Sakurai couldn't figure it out. Though Melee-era Sakurai couldn't even think up a pump as a way for Balloon Fighter to regain his balloons.

 

[SPEN18]

Well, the retro spot isn't a thing anymore, so he wouldn't get in on that basis. I'm more speaking on how the definition of retro is used for Smash, being "an old character without any titles past the 'retro era'" (bar re-releases and cameos).

Pac-Man is a character who has no(?) material from anything past Pac-Land, but... he's not a retro character. He's a character that existed in that era, but he's continued to get games, so he isn't seen as such.

The Excite series has continued past the NES era. There was the 64 game, Excitetruck, Excitebots, and the WiiWare title. Maybe there was more. It's perceived as retro, and therein people would probably count him as a retro character... but the series isn't really retro. I mean it's had three games since the last F-Zero. All of its titles except the first have been in the 2000s.

I wouldn't completely rule out getting another Melee-style NES retro slot someday, but yeah it's been a "surprise" pick in the more recent games that sometimes happens to get filled by a retro character (though perhaps not completely coincidentally since characters who haven't had games in a while could be perceived as inherently surprising in a roster with a lot of more recent picks). Anyway, I'd like the notion of "retro pick" to expand and be more of a thing for characters of all eras.
Of course I'm aware that Excite has continued to get games...but there is a reason it is still perceived as "retro" by much of the fanbase. I don't think the later games would disqualify a heavily NES-based Excitebiker moveset from filling an NES retro quota, should there ever be one.
But, regardless, Excitebike honestly has more merit than people give it credit for and I wouldn't forget about it as a speculator.

I could make an argument that Pac-Man is still considered a retro character to much of the general public, but he's clearly in as a third party rep which is a whole different ballgame anyway. Could probably say the same for Mega Man but again he's in for being basically the biggest 3rd party request after Sonic regardless of being retro or not. Though I think it's not complete coincidence that the base game third party newcomer choices have tended to be more "retro icon" types, since those picks appeal better to general audiences than most other 3rd parties we could possibly get.