Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[Quillion]

because why not just have them playable and represent other characters that couldn't make the cut as assist trophies. Your idea is redundant

Some people might like the idea of some Assists being promoted as DLC during the game's lifetime.

Waluigi fans, Skull Kid fans, Shadow fans, and Knuckles fans sure would if they continued to be Assists next Smash. Captain Toad fans sure would if he was promoted from background NPC to Assist next Smash.

I'll grant that only one or two during a late DLC wave would be best though. Just to give the team time to look who they or the fans want to promote at that point.

 

[dream1ng]

Promoting ATs within the same game doesn't need to happen, but it's not like there'd be anything wrong with it either. Some ATs are quite popular and the fanbase would certainly be happy to see them become fighters. But it's not like there aren't other good options as well.

And the technical aspect which is sometimes raised as being prohibitive really wouldn't be. It'd be incredibly easy to simply disable an AT when a certain fighter is present.

It just hasn't happened yet. Maybe Sakurai has some ideological bent which has kept promotions from occurring. Or maybe it's just coincidence.

 

[Quillion]

Promoting ATs within the same game doesn't need to happen, but it's not like there'd be anything wrong with it either. Some ATs are quite popular and the fanbase would certainly be happy to see them become fighters. But it's not like there aren't other good options as well.

This is just me, but I think continuing to maintain "no Assist promotions in same game" to be unnecessarily limiting. And not limiting in a necessary way like the various statements against licensed game characters. If Sakurai makes "no same game AT promotions" a stated rule I will just speak out against it harder.

And the technical aspect which is sometimes raised as being prohibitive really wouldn't be. It'd be incredibly easy to simply disable an AT when a certain fighter is present.

Now that you mention this, I want them to go harder on fighters being background NPCs on certain stages when not on the field. Would give old and new stages a bit more life.

 

[Geno Boost]

I don’t see assist promotion to playable in the same game happening anytime in the future smash games I do think once someone is revealed an assist then it’s already too late even with DLC just wait until the next game or be happy with a Mii costume if there is still demand for it
After all Nintendo are the one who picks

 

[Dinoman96]

I think the real issue here is that the characters who tend to get AT'd virtually have no chance of being DLC anyways.

Reminder:

First party wise, the only characters that really have a shot at DLC, besides Piranha Plant which was obviously meant to be in the base game, are contemporary ones, characters from new Nintendo games that missed the boat the first time around, like Fire Emblem, ARMS and Xenoblade 2. So in that sense, characters like Waluigi, Krystal, Isaac, Skull Kid, Ashley, etc probably wouldn't be DLC anyways even if they weren't already assist trophies. Just look at characters of similar caliber like Dixie Kong and Bandana Dee, they weren't AT'd and yet they weren't made DLC either. Outside of that, the DLC has always been dominated by mega huge guest characters, as well as the top popular requests from the ballot like Bayonetta, Banjo-Kazooie and Sora (who is a bit of both, really!).

I guess one question mark in that regard is Spring Man. Was choosing another ARMS rep just the result of Sakurai jumping the gun too fast and making him an AT in the base game and thus wanted to look elsewhere, or were they just gonna pull a Chrom and go with another ARMS character regardless, especially with Yabuki's "everyone's the main character" statement?

 

[Opossum]

Honestly, what's worse than getting turned into an Assist Trophy is having your Assist Trophy removed without becoming playable.

Like, if your favorite character becomes an Assist Trophy, they're still somewhat there. It's not the absolute ideal that is being playable, but it's probably the next best thing, and definitely a step above trophy/spirit/sticker status. Just from the Nintendo side alone, there are a lot of characters I enjoy seeing, and about six of those are ones who, if given the choice, I'd rather see playable.

But damn did it sting that Saki was unceremoniously dropped from Ultimate. To me he was always one of the poster children of Assist Trophies, so to see him miss out was kind of a bummer, much like the case with Isaac, Helirin, or Barbara in Smash 4 (and Ultimate as well for the latter two). And those six characters I mentioned earlier? Most of them will most likely never become playable. Of the six, Waluigi is the only one I feel has a really good shot for next time, with maybe Spring Man as well. Takamaru has maybe an outside shot if the planets align. But Starfy, Dillon, and Arcade Bunny seem pretty firmly in Assist At Best territory unless something drastic happens, so the thought of them getting Saki'd instead sucks.

So yeah, an Assist might not be the pinnacle of an ideal, but it's better than the alternative.

 

[Dinoman96]

I guess the other issue is how very rarely assist trophies have ever been upgraded in the history of Smash. Across three installments with them, the only AT promotions we got were:

• Little Mac. Punch-Out!! on Wii released after Brawl in 2009 and made the character briefly relevant enough for Sakurai to include him in Smash 4.
• Isabelle. It's Isabelle, I don't gotta explain ****.
• Dark Samus. Really only got in as a glorified alt costume echo fighter in Ultimate, would of remained an AT otherwise.

 

[fogbadge]

Honestly, what's worse than getting turned into an Assist Trophy is having your Assist Trophy removed without becoming playable.

Like, if your favorite character becomes an Assist Trophy, they're still somewhat there. It's not the absolute ideal that is being playable, but it's probably the next best thing, and definitely a step above trophy/spirit/sticker status. Just from the Nintendo side alone, there are a lot of characters I enjoy seeing, and about six of those are ones who, if given the choice, I'd rather see playable.

But damn did it sting that Saki was unceremoniously dropped from Ultimate. To me he was always one of the poster children of Assist Trophies, so to see him miss out was kind of a bummer, much like the case with Isaac, Helirin, or Barbara in Smash 4 (and Ultimate as well for the latter two). And those six characters I mentioned earlier? Most of them will most likely never become playable. Of the six, Waluigi is the only one I feel has a really good shot for next time, with maybe Spring Man as well. Takamaru has maybe an outside shot if the planets align. But Starfy, Dillon, and Arcade Bunny seem pretty firmly in Assist At Best territory unless something drastic happens, so the thought of them getting Saki'd instead sucks.

So yeah, an Assist might not be the pinnacle of an ideal, but it's better than the alternative.

at least your favourite made assist trophy

 

[Opossum]

I guess the other issue is how very rarely assist trophies have ever been upgraded in the history of Smash. Across three installments with them, the only AT promotions we got were:

• Little Mac. Punch-Out!! on Wii released after Brawl in 2009 and made the character briefly relevant enough for Sakurai to include him in Smash 4.
• Isabelle. It's Isabelle, I don't gotta explain ****.
• Dark Samus. Really only got in as a glorified alt costume echo fighter in Ultimate, would of remained an AT otherwise.

If you want to get pedantic and further expand it into Poké Ball territory, there's also Charizard.

But similar to Isabelle...it's Charizard, lol.

 

[Dinoman96]

If you want to get pedantic and further expand it into Poké Ball territory, there's also Charizard.

But similar to Isabelle...it's Charizard, lol.

Actually, I'd say Charizard's main claim to fame was that Sakurai needed it for the Pokemon Trainer concept. It wouldn't of been made playable without that going for it, same thing with Squirtle and Ivysaur.

 

[Opossum]

Actually I'd say Charizard's main claim to fame was that Sakurai needed it for the Pokemon Trainer concept. It wouldn't of been made playable without that going for it, same thing with Squirtle and Ivysaur.

Honestly I disagree. While I doubt it would've happened during Brawl itself, I absolutely think Charizard could have gotten in on its own eventually, regardless of Pokémon Trainer. It's the second most iconic Pokémon of all time, only after Pikachu. And the fact that it was kept as a standalone when Pokémon Trainer was cut from Smash 4, while Squirtle and Ivysaur weren't kept, says a lot to me: namely, that Charizard can stand on its own while the other two cannot.

 

[Perkilator]

Actually, I'd say Charizard's main claim to fame was that Sakurai needed it for the Pokemon Trainer concept. It wouldn't of been made playable without that going for it, same thing with Squirtle and Ivysaur.

Honestly I disagree. While I doubt it would've happened during Brawl itself, I absolutely think Charizard could have gotten in on its own eventually, regardless of Pokémon Trainer. It's the second most iconic Pokémon of all time, only after Pikachu. And the fact that it was kept as a standalone when Pokémon Trainer was cut from Smash 4, while Squirtle and Ivysaur weren't kept, says a lot to me: namely, that Charizard can stand on its own while the other two cannot.

I think the recent Akaneia Build trailer does a good job of demonstrating how Charizard could stand on its own if it were introduced sooner.

 

[Dinoman96]

Honestly I disagree. While I doubt it would've happened during Brawl itself, I absolutely think Charizard could have gotten in on its own eventually, regardless of Pokémon Trainer. It's the second most iconic Pokémon of all time, only after Pikachu. And the fact that it was kept as a standalone when Pokémon Trainer was cut from Smash 4, while Squirtle and Ivysaur weren't kept, says a lot to me: namely, that Charizard can stand on its own while the other two cannot.

I don't really think so? Like, outside of PT, every new Pokemon addition post Melee has been based on the newest gen out at the time: Lucario, Greninja, and Incineroar. I don't really see why they'd gone back and chose Charizard in Brawl (outside of PT, of course), Smash 4 or Ultimate instead of the hot new toy. It'd be like including Lyn over Robin, Corrin or Byleth.

 

[Quillion]

Dinoman96 : I can see that there are certain patterns with DLC characters, especially with how first party DLC focuses on fresh new faces. I think the latter pattern is a good thing considering development timings that would otherwise keep very recent characters out of the base game. But as you said with Piranha Plant being an exception, the whole pattern can still be kept while making an AT promotion an exception.

So yeah, an Assist might not be the pinnacle of an ideal, but it's better than the alternative.

I have no hard feelings towards AT status. I just think we're due for it being a stepping stone towards being playable not just in a sequel, but in the same game.

 

[fogbadge]

Actually, I'd say Charizard's main claim to fame was that Sakurai needed it for the Pokemon Trainer concept. It wouldn't of been made playable without that going for it, same thing with Squirtle and Ivysaur.

are you unfamiliar with the Pokemon franchise?

 

[Dinoman96]

are you unfamiliar with the Pokemon franchise?

Yes, I'm aware of Charizard's popularity. However:

I don't really think so? Like, outside of PT, every new Pokemon addition post Melee has been based on the newest gen out at the time: Lucario, Greninja, and Incineroar. I don't really see why they'd gone back and chose Charizard in Brawl (outside of PT, of course), Smash 4 or Ultimate instead of the hot new toy. It'd be like including Lyn over Robin, Corrin or Byleth.

 

[Quillion]

I don't really see why they'd gone back and chose Charizard in Brawl (outside of PT, of course), Smash 4 or Ultimate instead of the hot new toy.

Considering how Pokémon XY started the Gen 1 pandering due to all of the complaints about Gen 5's lack of focus on older Pokémon, Smash 4 would've been the perfect time for Charizard solo to be pushed. And it was.

It'd be like including Lyn over Robin, Corrin or Byleth.

Anyway, I'd be a lot happier if they started doing this past Ultimate. And not just for Fire Emblem at that.

 

[Dinoman96]

Anyway, I'd be a lot happier if they started doing this past Ultimate. And not just for Fire Emblem at that.

So would I lol but that's not the world we live in, I'm afraid.

I don't deny Charizard is obviously a hugely popular character that can stand on its own, but ultimately I still just don't think it'd got into Smash in the first place without the Pokemon Trainer gimmick, especially with there being newer generations to play with each game. It's kinda like how we only got Sheik initially, because of Zelda's transformation gimmick back in Melee, or better yet, how the only time Dixie Kong was ever planned to be in Smash was via a tag team partner concept with Diddy ala DKC2 back in Brawl.

 

[Quillion]

I don't deny Charizard is obviously a hugely popular character that can stand on its own, but ultimately I still just don't think it'd got into Smash in the first place without the Pokemon Trainer gimmick, especially with there being newer generations to play with each game. It's kinda like how we only got Sheik initially, because of Zelda's transformation gimmick back in Melee, or better yet, how the only time Dixie Kong was ever planned to be in Smash was via a tag team partner concept with Diddy ala DKC2 back in Brawl.

I guess you're right with Charizard circa Brawl. But considering "the world we live in" SOME Gen 1 pandering might've taken hold in Smash 4 considering XY. Given Japanese horenso Sakurai wouldn't be able to go against it.

Either way, parts of Smash's current roster and inclusion patterns are rather stuck in their ways. They seem to regret putting in Sheik because of her being exclusive to OoT (spin-offs notwithstanding), so every one-shot since has been an AT instead. For Dixie, on one hand she's big in the Donkey Kong series, but perhaps she's a bit hamstrung by her not being marketed all that much unlike Donkey Kong and Diddy. She very rarely even appears in Mario spin-offs.

 

[Dinoman96]

For Dixie, on one hand she's big in the Donkey Kong series, but perhaps she's a bit hamstrung by her not being marketed all that much unlike Donkey Kong and Diddy. She very rarely even appears in Mario spin-offs.

It's a problem, yeah. DK hardly really gets games anymore, the only "mainline" DK platformers we've gotten since DK64 are Jungle Beat, DKC Returns and DKC Tropical Freeze, and she's only in the latter. DKCR was the most relevant DK game on the market when Smash 4's roster was locked down in early 2012 and it only featured DK and Diddy, so that's probably why there was no DK newcomer that game. Meanwhile everyone voted for K. Rool on the ballot and thus Dixie was once again left behind.

 

[JOJONumber691]

I think the real issue here is that the characters who tend to get AT'd virtually have no chance of being DLC anyways.

Reminder:

First party wise, the only characters that really have a shot at DLC, besides Piranha Plant which was obviously meant to be in the base game, are contemporary ones, characters from new Nintendo games that missed the boat the first time around, like Fire Emblem, ARMS and Xenoblade 2. So in that sense, characters like Waluigi, Krystal, Isaac, Skull Kid, Ashley, etc probably wouldn't be DLC anyways even if they weren't already assist trophies. Just look at characters of similar caliber like Dixie Kong and Bandana Dee, they weren't AT'd and yet they weren't made DLC either. Outside of that, the DLC has always been dominated by mega huge guest characters, as well as the top popular requests from the ballot like Bayonetta, Banjo-Kazooie and Sora (who is a bit of both, really!).

I guess one question mark in that regard is Spring Man. Was choosing another ARMS rep just the result of Sakurai jumping the gun too fast and making him an AT in the base game and thus wanted to look elsewhere, or were they just gonna pull a Chrom and go with another ARMS character regardless, especially with Yabuki's "everyone's the main character" statement?

As much as I like the Newer Additions, it's important to represent the new after all, I definitely wish that the DLC First Parties added a couple more fan favorites here and there. Especially someone like Isaac from Golden Sun, who is a fan favorite who could have a full pack like that, but instead they jumped the gun and made him an Assist. I guess beggars can't be choosers lol.

 

[Quillion]

As much as I like the Newer Additions, it's important to represent the new after all, I definitely wish that the DLC First Parties added a couple more fan favorites here and there. Especially someone like Isaac from Golden Sun, who is a fan favorite who could have a full pack like that, but instead they jumped the gun and made him an Assist. I guess beggars can't be choosers lol.

Hey, all the more reason to make same-game AT promotions a thing.

Like I said, they should be part of a late DLC wave to give the team time to decide.

 

[PeridotGX]

I don't really think so? Like, outside of PT, every new Pokemon addition post Melee has been based on the newest gen out at the time: Lucario, Greninja, and Incineroar. I don't really see why they'd gone back and chose Charizard in Brawl (outside of PT, of course), Smash 4 or Ultimate instead of the hot new toy. It'd be like including Lyn over Robin, Corrin or Byleth.

If it wasn't added in Brawl, I think there's a chance they could have added Charizard in Fighter's Pass 1. It would be benefitting from some really good timing. Ultimate and most of FP1 is sandwiched between LGPE (remakes of Gen 1, obviously games that feature Charizard) and SWSH (the games where the champion's signature Pokémon is a Charizard with a fancy new form). It would have the opportunity to be both a promotional pick for two games and an appeal to the fandom - how many characters can claim to do that?

 

[JOJONumber691]

Hey, all the more reason to make same-game AT promotions a thing.

Like I said, they should be part of a late DLC wave to give the team time to decide.

Honestly yeah. If they didn't jump the gun on Isaac, or allowed same-game Assist Promotions, then I feel like Isaac would've made it into Ultimate. Over who I don't know, but I do think that if they didn't jump the gun Isaac would've made it into Ultimate the Fighters Pass Format is actually perfect for Isaac and the content he would bring IMO.

 

[dream1ng]

Honestly, what's worse than getting turned into an Assist Trophy is having your Assist Trophy removed without becoming playable.

Like, if your favorite character becomes an Assist Trophy, they're still somewhat there. It's not the absolute ideal that is being playable, but it's probably the next best thing, and definitely a step above trophy/spirit/sticker status. Just from the Nintendo side alone, there are a lot of characters I enjoy seeing, and about six of those are ones who, if given the choice, I'd rather see playable.

But damn did it sting that Saki was unceremoniously dropped from Ultimate. To me he was always one of the poster children of Assist Trophies, so to see him miss out was kind of a bummer, much like the case with Isaac, Helirin, or Barbara in Smash 4 (and Ultimate as well for the latter two). And those six characters I mentioned earlier? Most of them will most likely never become playable. Of the six, Waluigi is the only one I feel has a really good shot for next time, with maybe Spring Man as well. Takamaru has maybe an outside shot if the planets align. But Starfy, Dillon, and Arcade Bunny seem pretty firmly in Assist At Best territory unless something drastic happens, so the thought of them getting Saki'd instead sucks.

So yeah, an Assist might not be the pinnacle of an ideal, but it's better than the alternative.

I think it's a bummer that the ATs who seem likeliest to get removed are those from those middle limbo series who otherwise get very little attention anyway. Custom Robo, Sin & Punishment, Jam With the Band, Kuru Kuru Kururin, Drill Dozer, etc.

It's basically just Smash that gives these fanbases anything anymore, so to see it get reduced most frequently as a category for ATs is disappointing.

Honestly I disagree. While I doubt it would've happened during Brawl itself, I absolutely think Charizard could have gotten in on its own eventually, regardless of Pokémon Trainer. It's the second most iconic Pokémon of all time, only after Pikachu. And the fact that it was kept as a standalone when Pokémon Trainer was cut from Smash 4, while Squirtle and Ivysaur weren't kept, says a lot to me: namely, that Charizard can stand on its own while the other two cannot.

I honestly kind of agree with the other guy. Not enough to make definitive statements, you never know, but while Charizard is Charizard, he was also Charizard during the two previous games where there seemed to be no intention of adding him... while the Pokemon Trainer idea was the one that occurred to Sakurai before he decided who would actually fill out those three spots.

It's a different argument than saying Charizard wouldn't merit being added, which isn't being said. It's just that his impetus came from facilitating a different character. And then if transformations are proving a problem and you make the call to only keep one character, obviously it'll be Charizard, but that doesn't prove that Charizard would've made it without the Trainer first either.

If Pokemon weren't a series so dictated by what's current, I'd agree Charizard probably would be in regardless, but as it stands now, despite who the character is, I also kind of doubt it would've got in were it not for Trainer. It seems he is a beneficiary of Sakurai wanting to implement an idea that represents the series as a whole, and was then chosen and kept due to who the character is.

I just don't think Sakurai would've gone back for a Gen 1 at that point. The reason he went for Trainer is because Trainer is the overarching protagonist of the series, and of which a Kanto depiction makes the most sense. Though obviously no one knows for sure.

If it wasn't added in Brawl, I think there's a chance they could have added Charizard in Fighter's Pass 1. It would be benefitting from some really good timing. Ultimate and most of FP1 is sandwiched between LGPE (remakes of Gen 1, obviously games that feature Charizard) and SWSH (the games where the champion's signature Pokémon is a Charizard with a fancy new form). It would have the opportunity to be both a promotional pick for two games and an appeal to the fandom - how many characters can claim to do that?

Those aren't the kind of Pokemon they choose to be promotional additions. It'd be nice if they were.

There's a reason that even with the Gen 4 remakes, people were still wary about the likes of Cinderace. Or that even with LGPE being the most recent game, the conversation was solely about which Gen 7 we'd get, other than some very fleeting Eevee support.

As much as I like the Newer Additions, it's important to represent the new after all, I definitely wish that the DLC First Parties added a couple more fan favorites here and there. Especially someone like Isaac from Golden Sun, who is a fan favorite who could have a full pack like that, but instead they jumped the gun and made him an Assist. I guess beggars can't be choosers lol.

To be real, Isaac being an AT wasn't what kept him from being DLC. What kept him from being DLC is not having a recent game to leverage. If there had been a Golden Sun 4 which came out within the proximity of Ultimate (but was too late for base), that probably would've been cause to promote an AT.

 

[Quillion]

Honestly yeah. If they didn't jump the gun on Isaac, or allowed same-game Assist Promotions, then I feel like Isaac would've made it into Ultimate. Over who I don't know, but I do think that if they didn't jump the gun Isaac would've made it into Ultimate the Fighters Pass Format is actually perfect for Isaac and the content he would bring IMO.

TBH, I don't think Smash 4 was a good time to begin same-game AT promotions, and Ultimate wasn't either.

But the fourth game with Assist Trophies and the third game with DLC, THAT will be time.

It's like how Smash has slowly expanded the horizons of third-party characters, from one per company, to one per franchise, to multiple per franchise.

To be real, Isaac being an AT wasn't what kept him from being DLC. What kept him from being DLC is not having a recent game to leverage. If there had been a Golden Sun 4 which came out within the proximity of Ultimate (but was too late for base), that probably would've been cause to promote an AT.

If they can bring in Banjo with no recent game, they can do the same for any first party character.

 

[dream1ng]

If they can bring in Banjo with no recent game, they can do the same for any first party character.

Just because they can doesn't mean they do. Third-parties regularly are included despite being past their glory days, but first-parties who get in on that basis are far rarer, and relegated to the package deal of base. Which is where Isaac would've been, had he been included.

First-party DLC doesn't favor dormant characters, it favors new characters.

It's not a good idea to compare first and third-parties anyway, the two aren't in the same positions.

 

[Dinoman96]

The ballot was primarily for the base game anyways. Banjo and Sora, who were obviously the top characters, were the two exceptions because their third party status makes them a bit more complicated than first party characters like K. Rool or Ridley.

 

[Quillion]

Just because they can doesn't mean they do. Third-parties regularly are included despite being past their glory days, but first-parties who get in on that basis are far rarer, and relegated to the package deal of base. Which is where Isaac would've been, had he been included.

First-party DLC doesn't favor dormant characters, it favors new characters.

It's not a good idea to compare first and third-parties anyway, the two aren't in the same positions.

Yeah I get that. I do believe that using DLC to bring in characters who couldn't have been completed for base due to being too recent at the time is a good pattern, and that pattern should continue.

...But an exception or two during a late DLC wave wouldn't hurt.

The ballot was primarily for the base game anyways. Banjo and Sora, who were obviously the top characters, were the two exceptions because their third party status makes them a bit more complicated than K. Rool or Ridley.

That's an interesting point. What if they have a character ballot purely for the interims between installments from this point forward?

 

[SPEN18]

On AT promotions:

Well, ideally all the characters I'd like to see playable simply become playable in the next base game, and then everything is fine on the ATs front!
But of course that is not a realistic expectation, and in the alternative I plan to support who I support regardless of whether they're an AT or whether they're considered likely.

As for Nintendo, I really, really don't think they would let the presence of an AT stop them from adding the character they want in DLC. The fact that same-game AT promotions haven't happened yet is largely just a product, as others have said, of most of the AT characters being the kind that are unlikely for DLC regardless of whether they are ATs. It really stinks that being AT'd can have such negative effects on support for certain characters, though.

And, yes, being an AT is quite a high form of representation, perhaps the highest outside of being playable; however, on the other side of it, an AT is definitely not a substitute for a PC. While I do encourage them to do the best they can for characters with merit who don't make it as playables, and ATs are a large part of this, I also wouldn't want them to actively avoid promoting AT characters in favor of adding totally unrepresented characters just because the former ones are already in the game in some form.

 

[Sucumbio]

I want Alucard promoted please Nintendo!

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

I'm half pessimist/half optimist about AT's. I think first party ones have probably hit their ceiling in terms of likely playability, but that (practical) third party Assist Trophies could be in play for being promoted in the next sequel.

 

[Quillion]

I'm half pessimist/half optimist about AT's. I think first party ones have probably hit their ceiling in terms of likely playability, but that (practical) third party Assist Trophies could be in play for being promoted in the next sequel.

Can't say you're wrong, especially when many of the first-party ATs are fabled groups of characters such as Mario spin-off characters, Zelda one-shot characters, and some enemies.

Only the pattern of those groups being off the table will save them. If they'll be same-game promoted, their void in the AT pool can be filled with others, like say Kirby one-shot characters or secondaries, or even other Mario one-shots considering Mario as of late seems to be slowing down on adding characters to the core cast (Rosalina and Captain Toad being the last ones AFAIK, and from the same game at that).

 

[SPEN18]

First party ATs is a very deep barrel, though, including but not limited to

top fan faves like Isaac, Waluigi, Krystal, etc.;

some of the biggest Zelda one-offs like Skull Kid, Midna, and Ghirahim;

legacy/retro series like Excitebike or S&P;

other oddball choices like Kawashima or Vince.

And that's only listing like a few examples for each, and it's not even everything.
Note also that I included cut ATs in the above, but the list is long even without those.

Sure, almost all of them are perceived as individually unlikely, but even just by sheer quantity there's a respectable chance that circumstances could line up for a few of them, especially the ones with high demand or that could fill traditional Smash quotas like "80s retro rep" or "oddball."

 

[Ivander]

The ballot was primarily for the base game anyways. Banjo and Sora, who were obviously among the top characters, were the two exceptions because their third party status makes them a bit more complicated than first party characters like K. Rool or Ridley.

Fixed. Sora is Number 1, but they never specified Banjo & Kazooie were Number 2. They just said that among the top characters, Banjo & Kazooie was one of the characters behind Sora to get in Smash. Basically, Banjo & Kazooie could be Number 2, or they could've been Number 3-10 and they weren't able to get the ones between Sora and Banjo.

Also, Castlevania was added because of the ballot and they're both third-party and in base game.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

Easy to say this now I know, but I think Castlevania was an inevitability. If Konami wasn't going through its own nonsense circa 2013-2016 I suspect we probably would have gotten Snake and a Belmont in Smash 4.

 

[Chuderz]

I think the AT rule will hold up even after a potential breaking of the video game character only rule.

Yeah Nintendo can do whatever they want sure but I think the reason AT exist in the first place was to placate fans of these characters somewhat while effectively disconfirming them and in doing so thereby freeing up resources for other characters and in the era of Smash DLC freeing up speculation for other characters. If Waluigi couldn't meme his way into Ultimate I don't think anybody can. I also think the fact that they skipped over Springman when they had the chance speaks volumes to AT being a solid disconfirmation for the current game they appear in.

I honestly even see a Mii costume as being as good as a disconfirmation. Any character that is currently playable that also has a mii costume has simply had a mii costume from the previous game where they weren't playable ported over to the current game. Even Sakurai treated the Dante, Shante, Dovakiin and Lloyd Mii costume showcase as being a disconfirmation.

On a completely different train of thought, I still think it's so weird how Sakurai is STILL posting Ultimate screenshots to this day. I always wonder if he just had a metric ****ton of them and if he has them set on some sort of timer but besides his cat it's practically the only thing he ever tweets about. I also wonder if he even runs that twitter. Sakurai is kind of a niche celebrity but he's not the kind that I would think has somebody else running his twitter. I don't know. Part of me hopes that this plus his comment about wanting to add to Ultimate's record for as long as possible will lead to Ultimate DX being worked on like a true Smash 6 for the Switch's successor console right now as we speak. Oh how I dream of it.

 

[Quillion]

Yeah Nintendo can do whatever they want sure but I think the reason AT exist in the first place was to placate fans of these characters somewhat while effectively disconfirming them and in doing so thereby freeing up resources for other characters and in the era of Smash DLC freeing up speculation for other characters. If Waluigi couldn't meme his way into Ultimate I don't think anybody can. I also think the fact that they skipped over Springman when they had the chance speaks volumes to AT being a solid disconfirmation for the current game they appear in.

Yeah, but a same-game AT promotion could still placate fans of the characters, disconfirm them for the time being, then confirm them again.

It's just the same process Smash 4 and Ultimate had in a shorter timeframe.

I honestly even see a Mii costume as being as good as a disconfirmation. Any character that is currently playable that also has a mii costume has simply had a mii costume from the previous game where they weren't playable ported over to the current game. Even Sakurai treated the Dante, Shante, Dovakiin and Lloyd Mii costume showcase as being a disconfirmation.

That's probably a better reason to hold it up, considering that dream1ng pointed out that certain characters are made Mii costumes because they can't be playable.

Still, base game Mii costumes should also be free to be promoted (though it seems the only one with any following as of yet is Dixie Kong). DLC Mii Costumes can probably stay where they are.

On the flip side, DLC should also start introducing new ATs with no possibility of same-game promotion in return for allowing base game ATs to be same-game promoted.

 

[SPEN18]

I think the reason AT exist in the first place was to placate fans of these characters somewhat while effectively disconfirming them

When ATs were first created, there was no DLC to speak of. So, yeah, an AT effectively disconfirmed the respective character for that game while still throwing a bone to their fans. And there were even things like Saki's DOJO page where Sakurai said he "did what he could" to include Saki given the popularity, making the AT seem like a "runner-up" prize or something to that effect. But this clearly was not a blanket disconfirmation for future games, given that another popular Assist in Little Mac was promoted for the very next game. And as for ATs being a disconfirmation for DLC in the same game, the original purpose of the AT is irrelevant since, as I said, DLC was evidently not a consideration when the Brawl roster was decided.

thereby freeing up resources for other characters and in the era of Smash DLC freeing up speculation for other characters.

Freeing up resources for the base game, sure, but not freeing up resources for DLC, which is decided and (almost certainly) budgeted way after the base roster is decided.
And we should be basically sure that it's not meant to free up speculation for other characters. I have a really hard time believing that Nintendo would add content meant primarily to celebrate a character with the simultaneous purpose of discouraging people from supporting that character's later full-on inclusion. They're not actively trying to steer fans towards speculating on the "correct" characters which they actually plan to add (and they haven't even set those characters in stone when the ATs are decided, though there might be a few cases where they have an idea, like how Steve was apparently in the works for several years); if anything, they're purposefully secret about the future roster and are aiming to surprise people.

If Waluigi couldn't meme his way into Ultimate I don't think anybody can.

No, I don't think anybody can meme their way in, not even the characters that actually got in. But, regardless, just because you perceive Waluigi to have been the likeliest AT candidate doesn't really mean much about AT promos in general principle; they are all their own characters with their own sets of circumstances and reasons for making it or not making it, after all. It's fallacious to assume Waluigi would be the end-all-be-all, tell-all case.

I also think the fact that they skipped over Springman when they had the chance speaks volumes to AT being a solid disconfirmation for the current game they appear in.

Now this debate is liable to go in circles so I won't try to spark the fire too much. But among the best counterarguments are that (1) Spring Man still appeared alongside the other ARMS characters when it was first announced that the next fighter would be from ARMS, suggesting he was a possibility they wanted you to consider; (2) in the Sakurai interviews following the reveal of Min Min, nothing was said about Spring Man being ineligible due to his AT, despite it being the perfect opportunity to make such a statement if Spring Man was indeed ineligible; and (3) in addition to the previous point, Sakurai gave another concrete reason for Min Min being chosen, so we have a clear alternative to Spring Man being ineligible.

 

[Chuderz]

When ATs were first created, there was no DLC to speak of. So, yeah, an AT effectively disconfirmed the respective character for that game while still throwing a bone to their fans. And there were even things like Saki's DOJO page where Sakurai said he "did what he could" to include Saki given the popularity, making the AT seem like a "runner-up" prize or something to that effect. But this clearly was not a blanket disconfirmation for future games, given that another popular Assist in Little Mac was promoted for the very next game. And as for ATs being a disconfirmation for DLC in the same game, the original purpose of the AT is irrelevant since, as I said, DLC was evidently not a consideration when the Brawl roster was decided.

No but I didn't say it was a blanket disconfirmation from future games. I specifically stated it likely a blanket disconfirmation of the game they're an AT in. I even laid out the nebulous caveat of Nintendo ultimately getting to do whatever they truly want. It's not impossible but I'd say it's borderline impossible because I think Nintendo views AT as a disconfirmation and thus freeing up resources for other characters they'd rather pursue/prioritize.

Freeing up resources for the base game, sure, but not freeing up resources for DLC, which is decided and (almost certainly) budgeted way after the base roster is decided.
And we should be basically sure that it's not meant to free up speculation for other characters. I have a really hard time believing that Nintendo would add content meant primarily to celebrate a character with the simultaneous purpose of discouraging people from supporting that character's later full-on inclusion. They're not actively trying to steer fans towards speculating on the "correct" characters which they actually plan to add (and they haven't even set those characters in stone when the ATs are decided, though there might be a few cases where they have an idea, like how Steve was apparently in the works for several years); if anything, they're purposefully secret about the future roster and are aiming to surprise people.

No I think DLC is still affected by AT selection. Freeing up those resources away from those characters is just as applicable to DLC as it is to base game. Nintendo doesn't care to discourage anybody from continuing to support a character that got AT treatment but they even more so don't care to spend resources reverting their previous decision on the matter.

Again they could reverse course on this but I highly doubt they would because it'd be counterproductive to the overall goal of AT inclusion. Yeah we'd be surprised at an AT being upgraded but we'd be even more surprised and I think overall satisfied with a character that's not in the game whatsoever and especially from a franchise that's not represented whatsoever. I don't think the surprise factor neutralizes the counterproductive factor I elaborated on earlier.

If anything they're completely fine with us speculating on AT trophies that are guaranteed disconfirmations for playable character status because we'd still be focusing our attention away from the characters they'd intended to surprise us with.

No, I don't think anybody can meme their way in, not even the characters that actually got in. But, regardless, just because you perceive Waluigi to have been the likeliest AT candidate doesn't really mean much about AT promos in general principle; they are all their own characters with their own sets of circumstances and reasons for making it or not making it, after all. It's fallacious to assume Waluigi would be the end-all-be-all, tell-all case.

I think he was if we're just laying it out straight. I didn't think it'd happen during Ultimate but the idea of Waluigi "cheating" his way into the game does make sense for the character. Then on top of that he has a very vocal demand that is still there. I stand by my statement. If Waluigi couldn't do it I don't think any of them could. Springman had the red carpet all laid out before him to waltz his way into the game and it still didn't pan out like that.

Now this debate is liable to go in circles so I won't try to spark the fire too much. But among the best counterarguments are that (1) Spring Man still appeared alongside the other ARMS characters when it was first announced that the next fighter would be from ARMS, suggesting he was a possibility they wanted you to consider; (2) in the Sakurai interviews following the reveal of Min Min, nothing was said about Spring Man being ineligible due to his AT, despite it being the perfect opportunity to make such a statement if Spring Man was indeed ineligible; and (3) in addition to the previous point, Sakurai gave another concrete reason for Min Min being chosen, so we have a clear alternative to Spring Man being ineligible.

The teaser announcement to me was just a generic ballot of illustrating the idea that it could supposedly be anyone from the franchise. If we're getting into the realm of Nintendo/Sakurai didn't say this or that then borderline anything with this franchise becomes possible. For example Nintendo and Sakurai didn't say that Sakurai's next game wasn't gonna be Ultimate DX but if I was to strut around here acting like it was a given because of that I'm gonna be met with a lot of pushback for these beliefs.

I don't believe they're just gonna announce these kinds of behind-the-scenes considerations to all of us because most Smash players wouldn't care and it's largely irrelevant to us that do anyways.

The reason they gave is kind of weaksauce if you're willing to be critical about it. It's a clear deflection away from the issue. Didn't he even bring up players wondering about Springman not being chosen as the preface to that statement about everybody being the main character? I don't remember exactly but yeah why not choose the clear mascot of the franchise? Oh it's because he's already an AT that's why.

Basically Min-Min is just more popular than Springman and they had a convenient excuse to skip over him entirely; that being he was an AT already. If Arms is to continue I can easily imagine both him and Ribbon Girl being dropped in favor of having Min-Min and Twintelle represent the franchise.