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Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

TheFirstPoppyBro

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There are a lot of conflicting thoughts processes in this roster. And I'm not sure you're knowledgeable about most of the franchises in the roster. If you were some of these decisions wouldn't be made.

There's also some roster decisions that seem to be made out of spite. You definitely have some biases and they are fairly clear in your roster.

I'd be pretty darn disappointed and frustrated if this was the roster of a new Smash.
I didn't even look through the whole thing, I saw some of the cuts in the little window when you scroll over the timeline and people in the comments talking about cutting every Pokemon that's not from Gen 1 (and also Jigglypuff I think), cutting every FE character that's not Marth, and cutting both Xenoblade characters being bad/weird ideas and was like "yeah, I feel like I just shouldn't watch this or it'll just make me mad in the end" lmao
 
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BackseatSakurai

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There are a lot of conflicting thoughts processes in this roster. And I'm not sure you're knowledgeable about most of the franchises in the roster. If you were some of these decisions wouldn't be made.

There's also some roster decisions that seem to be made out of spite. You definitely have some biases and they are fairly clear in your roster.

I'd be pretty darn disappointed and frustrated if this was the roster of a new Smash.
Appreciate the feedback - but not the assumption of ignorance. I was pretty honest in the video about my biases and actually tried to act counter to them in many cases - but nonetheless. Out of all of the characters in your signature, there's only like 3 or 4 that I wouldn't view as a complete misstep, so I'm not surprised that you didn't agree - everyone has their own opinion.
 

Swamp Sensei

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Given that this is what you think the game should look like, I'm not too concerned with satisfying your curatorial preferences, but I appreciate your input
Dragging up past posts as a gotcha is... Certainly a look.
 

GoldenYuiitusin

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Fair Enough, Arcane had also skins in Fortnite as well.
I'm not saying a character can't be in or that LoL shouldn't get in, to be clear. Just that it's not likely a fighter in Smash would have much of an effect on LoL itself when a show that was popular even with those who never played LoL or followed lore didn't attract an extended playerbase despite said popularity.
 
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Þe 1 → Way

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So is clipping my quote to remove the context for why I might feel compelled to do so, but hey.

Let's just cross our fingers and hope that Pyro from TF2 and the protagonist of Astral Chain make it into the next game 🤞
Someone reiterated their opinion in this thread since it was on topic, that's the context you considered rude enough to start making jabs?

I don't really wanna escalate this. Everyone here has a different view of the next game, and most of the concepts thrown around have massive differences in decisions and scope. We don't need to snipe at each other's wants to recognize our own.
 

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So is clipping my quote to remove the context for why I might feel compelled to do so, but hey.
Context doesn't change the fact that it's a pretty blatant faux pas. BritishGuy didn't seek you out to comment. You posted in this thread and they replied to it in the same day. Other than being harsh, they didn't do anything wrong. You could have just ignored him or shrugged him off, but you dug out someone else's dirty laundry to discredit their opinion. You're not debating the actual criticism or the points they're making. But at this point, I don't think discussion of your behavior is going to be productive.

So we might as well make this more productive. I'll try to argue one sticking point I'm sure got BritishGuy a little frustrated.

Why get rid of Xenoblade? It's an active franchise that Nintendo has a lot of investment in. It's a multi-million seller franchise. It's well liked, both in Smash and out of it. Even among JRPG fans they are considered influential and beloved. Xenoblade 2 was considered a big enough deal to be shown during the Switch's pre launch showing. Xenoblade 3 was considered big enough to be a direct closer. I don't think Nintendo thinks of it as anything other than a valuable IP. It's even one of the IPs that Nintendo said had immense growth during the Switch era (along with Metroid and Pikmin). There's no reason to get rid of the franchise entirely. It would definitely be a priority for the next game to include.

Let's just cross our fingers and hope that Pyro from TF2 and the protagonist of Astral Chain make it into the next game 🤞
Yes, let's. 🤞

And for clarity, my signature is unrealistic personal wants. I don't expect most of these characters to make it or even be considered. My critiques of your roster had nothing to do with the characters in my signature.

I'd be pretty crazy to demand a roster have any TF2 character after all.
 

BackseatSakurai

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So we might as well make this more productive. I'll try to argue one sticking point I'm sure got BritishGuy a little frustrated.

Why get rid of Xenoblade? It's an active franchise that Nintendo has a lot of investment in. It's a multi-million seller franchise. It's well liked, both in Smash and out of it. Even among JRPG fans they are considered influential and beloved. Xenoblade 2 was considered a big enough deal to be shown during the Switch's pre launch showing. Xenoblade 3 was considered big enough to be a direct closer. I don't think Nintendo thinks of it as anything other than a valuable IP. It's even one of the IPs that Nintendo said had immense growth during the Switch era (along with Metroid and Pikmin). There's no reason to get rid of the franchise entirely. It would definitely be a priority for the next game to include.
This is indeed a way more productive conversation to have. I acknowledge that cutting Xenoblade is harsh - and quite honestly, it's not going to happen (because as much as I try to push the conversation away from considering this, marketing is always going to come into play).

The reason I cut it is complicated - and I should pre-empt by saying that given unlimited devtime and resources, I'd be in favor of pretty much every Nintendo IP having a representative, Xeno included. I just think that Smash has painted itself into a corner where drastic cuts are going to be necessary. That being said, my values are squarely in the corner of representing things with long-running histories and I think Nintendo's own stable of IP has things that have gone overlooked for far too long - if it's a crime to not have Xenoblade, it's certainly a crime to not have a Nintendo Wars rep, recency and current-day relevance be damned. It's also hard to evaluate because I think much of the success Xenoblade re-releases and sequels have seen (which, in my view, is kind of overstated - when Pikmin is outselling you it's hard to appeal to popularity or sales as a positive) is precisely because of the Smash inclusion - and now that gets used as the justification for the inclusion in a circular manner.

From a marketing perspective - yes, it should probably have a representative. But I'm not a marketing exec - I'm a fan, and there's so many pockets of Nintendo history that may be fairly obscure but are nonetheless deeply influential - Xenoblade cut from my roster is less of a result of having a bone to pick with the series and moreso just that it isn't quite spectacular enough in any singular category (in my opinion) to warrant inclusion. I may have overcorrected due to feeling like Shulk got in prematurely (thus sending us down this path to begin with) - but I'll even concede that if Xenoblade continues for another generation and maintains / grows - Shulk probably should have eventually gotten in at some point. I would maybe even give the nod to KOS-MOS, despite less Nintendo connection, just to at least nod to the wider context of Xeno as a whole (and because she has a tendency to pop up as the crossover representative in other games), but that's more or less personal preference.

TL;DR - I would rather look backwards and fill in the blanks we've missed over the years and give newer stuff time to cook and truly prove itself to be relevant and timeless long-term before jumping the gun.
 

Hadokeyblade

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TL;DR - I would rather look backwards and fill in the blanks we've missed over the years and give newer stuff time to cook and truly prove itself to be relevant and timeless long-term before jumping the gun.
I do agree with the sentiment but Xenoblade HAS proved itself, i dont consider myself a fan of Xenoblade but i see more than enough fanart of the characters to know that a ton of people love it.
 

Swamp Sensei

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TL;DR - I would rather look backwards and fill in the blanks we've missed over the years and give newer stuff time to cook and truly prove itself to be relevant and timeless long-term before jumping the gun
I'm quoting just this because I have limited time but...

Hasn't Xenoblade already proven itself as a long lasting IP? It's fifteen years old and it's more successful than ever. Where is the line drawn?
 

The Stoopid Unikorn

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Wild to call Xenoblade something that hasn't proven itself.

It's consistently been doing post-Awakening Fire Emblem numbers on the Switch which shows a decent amount of popularity and Nintendo clearly has given it some importance even before that, the 3DS version of the first game having been used to market the "new" 3DS (that's right, Xenoblade marketed a handheld console, how is that not a sign of how impactful the series is?).

If anything, Xenoblade is one of the biggest underdog stories in Nintendo history, going from something Nintendo didn't want to release internationally but eventually folded from the fan demand to a genuine headliner for the company to the point where people pop off seeing Monolith Soft's logo in a Direct.
 
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LiveStudioAudience

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The fact that Xenoblade went from a series that need a campaign by US fans to get its only entry localized to getting three sequels over the course of a dozen years? I don't know it feels like momentum and relevance are on its side all things considered. If anything, Shulk getting in Smash 4 when it did was a far more questionable call given the shaky status of the series at the time than any XB inclusion now. Thankfully that roster call ended up being very prescient given how well the series ended up growing after that.
 
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TheFirstPoppyBro

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TL;DR - I would rather look backwards and fill in the blanks we've missed over the years and give newer stuff time to cook and truly prove itself to be relevant and timeless long-term before jumping the gun.
I mean if we were speculating about Smash 4 I'd probably agree that Xenoblade was added very quickly all things considered, since the original game came out in 2010 and Shulk would've been added to Smash 4's 2012 project plan, but it was probably a pretty safe bet considering Operation Rainfall happened and showed that interest in the game was already there before it came out in the West.

But if we're speculating on Smash 6 and not 4, then it's a 15 year old series that has seen large growth and Nintendo is more invested in Monolith Soft than ever, even going so far as to buy out that last 4% of shares that the founders owned to 100% own the company, with Xenoblade itself having four games, two full size DLCs, nearly 9 million units altogether sold, and no signs of stopping as far as I know.
 

BackseatSakurai

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I'm quoting just this because I have limited time but...

Hasn't Xenoblade already proven itself as a long lasting IP? It's fifteen years old and it's more successful than ever. Where is the line drawn?
It's entirely subjective - and yeah, I'm probably overcorrecting based on the fact that I see a ton of fan rosters with 4 or 5 Xenoblade characters - which is absurd, imo.

I mean if we were speculating about Smash 4 I'd probably agree that Xenoblade was added very quickly all things considered, since the original game came out in 2010 and Shulk would've been added to Smash 4's 2012 project plan, but it was probably a pretty safe bet considering Operation Rainfall happened and showed that interest in the game was already there before it came out in the West.

But if we're speculating on Smash 6 and not 4, then it's a 15 year old series that has seen large growth and Nintendo is more invested in Monolith Soft than ever, even going so far as to buy out that last 4% of shares that the founders owned to 100% own the company, with Xenoblade itself having four games, two full size DLCs, nearly 9 million units altogether sold, and no signs of stopping as far as I know.
Totally fair - let's assume Shulk hadn't gotten into Smash 4 and was added for the first time in Smash 6 - I would think that was understandable. But again - I do think people tend to underestimate just how many Nintendo IP or Nintendo-centric third-party IP have been overlooked thus far that would come first in the pecking order when you're not basing it off of marketing new games. Just my opinion. It's weird to discuss because Shulk was added so prematurely that the majority of the series' history is skewed by it getting the Smash promotional boost (let's not underestimate this - look what it did for Fire Emblem) very early on.
 

The Stoopid Unikorn

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(let's not underestimate this - look what it did for Fire Emblem)
You mean how the sales for it were not meeting expectations to the point that Awakening was originally the last hurrah before the IP got killed off?

The best you can say about Smash's impact on Fire Emblem is that it walked so Awakening (and its free demo) could run and Three Houses could fly. Which is still a nice thing to say but Smash alone didn't make FE the juggernaut it is today.

To me, it sounds like you're overestimating the impact Smash has on IPs.
 
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Arcanir

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Totally fair - let's assume Shulk hadn't gotten into Smash 4 and was added for the first time in Smash 6 - I would think that was understandable. But again - I do think people tend to underestimate just how many Nintendo IP or Nintendo-centric third-party IP have been overlooked thus far that would come first in the pecking order when you're not basing it off of marketing new games. Just my opinion. It's weird to discuss because Shulk was added so prematurely that the majority of the series' history is skewed by it getting the Smash promotional boost (let's not underestimate this - look what it did for Fire Emblem) very early on.
I feel you're in turn overcorrecting for the so called 'Smash boost'. Not every series in Smash suddenly becomes a big franchise or hit, and some have even fallen off or struggled despite their presence in Smash. Fire Emblem is a good example of that, Melee could be argued to have helped Blazing Blade, but Ike's games were flops, Shadow Dragon didn't do much better, and New Mystery couldn't even get localized. If it wasn't for Awakening the franchise would've went dormant, and that game came out to great success long before Robin or Lucina were revealed for Smash 4.

Xenoblade could've easily fell off or struggled, but it grew instead. Not all of that should be attributed to just Smash, it had to have a good appeal on its own so that it can gain a strong fanbase and sales that allowed it the place it's gotten today.
 

BackseatSakurai

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The best you can say about Smash's impact on Fire Emblem is that it walked so Awakening (and its free demo) could run and Three Houses could fly. Which is still a nice thing to say but Smash alone didn't make FE the juggernaut it is today.
This is the type of thing that's impossible to know - but I suspect the continuous Smash inclusions were a big help. I think you're looking at a very different situation with Awakening if it drops with zero Smash representation prior.

The ironic thing is - most of the characters I actually would want to add are exactly this type of "Marth in Melee" situation - let's correct some of the historical gaps and skew away from an incorrect Western perspective. My dream is that one day people will be making these same arguments in favor of Puyo Puyo or something.
 

The Stoopid Unikorn

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This is the type of thing that's impossible to know - but I suspect the continuous Smash inclusions were a big help. I think you're looking at a very different situation with Awakening if it drops with zero Smash representation prior.
Like Arcanir said, Path of Radiance, Radiant Dawn and Shadow Dragon were flops. These are three of the five games that have launched since Marth in Melee. And while it's all speculation, I have a feeling New Mystery not getting localized was likely an outcome of how they went three games in a row selling poorly.

You cannot claim Smash is a huge reason for why Fire Emblem got big when that IP started growing 11 years after Melee released! If Smash truly had the effect you think it has on IPs, FE would have never risked being dormant in the first place.

Clearly, something else was at play, and that something is called "actually marketing the damn game and releasing a free demo"

Did Smash help? Maybe, but it's more like a nudge than being a major contributor.
 
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LiveStudioAudience

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What's funny is that both Xenoblade with 2 and Fire Emblem with Awakening benefited from very similar market circumstances: well-advertised releases near the start of their respective console's lifespans that demonstrated the vitality of their franchises. Especially for the Switch which hadn't yet become the JRPG machine it eventually did, XC2 was a lifeline to fans that were in strong need of something in the genre.
 

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Totally fair - let's assume Shulk hadn't gotten into Smash 4 and was added for the first time in Smash 6 - I would think that was understandable. But again - I do think people tend to underestimate just how many Nintendo IP or Nintendo-centric third-party IP have been overlooked thus far that would come first in the pecking order when you're not basing it off of marketing new games. Just my opinion. It's weird to discuss because Shulk was added so prematurely that the majority of the series' history is skewed by it getting the Smash promotional boost (let's not underestimate this - look what it did for Fire Emblem) very early on.
I mean I get your opinion on it and I'm not gonna disparage your opinion, because it's subjective at the end of the day. If your plan is to look backwards and see what Nintendo has seemingly slighted in the past, by all means.

But when Shulk and Pyra/Mythra are here already, they're an active Nintendo franchise that has seen significant growth, Nintendo is investing into the company that made it more than ever, it's been around for 15 years, and your video is specifically titled as a Smash 6 analysis piece (implying some level of objectivity and not just subjectively looking into the back catalogue for series that have been passed up like Nintendo Wars), you can't really ignore all of the objective factors in it sticking around just to say "I think Xenoblade got in too early two Smash games ago so I'm cutting it completely", you know what I mean? lol
 

BackseatSakurai

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Did Smash help? Maybe, but it's more like a nudge than being a major contributor.
Again - this is impossible to parse, and you also have to account for other context when discussing the failure of the intermittent entries of FE. The climate of the entire industry was way different back then - especially towards Japanese-centric games - not to mention the state of the consoles themselves. It's a whole separate discussion, and of course, as you stated, marketing the games themselves will always play a role. If Smash inclusions didn't work as marketing for games, I don't think we'd see the roster we see now (which would actually be good, so I wish I agreed more with your assessment).

your video is specifically titled as a Smash 6 analysis piece (implying some level of objectivity and not just subjectively looking into the back catalogue for series that have been passed up like Nintendo Wars), you can't really ignore all of the objective factors in it sticking around just to say "I think Xenoblade got in too early two Smash games ago so I'm cutting it completely", you know what I mean? lol
Of course - it's all subjective, no doubt. I spend like 5 - 10 minutes in the video specifically explaining my approach / framework. Within that framework I think I was pretty objective and consistent - but even valuing the same things I value is, of course, subjective.
 

Guynamednelson

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On a slightly more serious note, does TF2 (and I guess Valve in general) have any sort of presence in Japan?
Half-Life, Counter-Strike, and Left 4 Dead all have gotten arcade games, and the Steam Deck is decently popular by handheld-that-isn't-the-Switch-or-a-mobile-phone standards over there.
 

fogbadge

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If I may offer my own thoughts: going back and trying to represent series that missed the boat despite having earned their place is all very well and good but should it really come at the cost of newer series that have earned their place?
 

Louie G.

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Shulk is pretty non-negotiable because even if we're discussing longevity, Xenoblade Chronicles Definitive Edition sold nearly two million copies and is only about five years in our peripheral. Aside from being the series' Marth, he's kind of 'renewed' his relevance and XBC is pretty much solidified as a prestigious Nintendo title worthy of continuing to rerelease and remake at this point. Definitive Edition is the third XBC release and the game isn't even that old lol.

We could otherwise argue if we had to cut it down to a single Xenoblade character, we could just do Pyra / Mythra or a new face. But Xenoblade has been a consistent force through the Switch's lifespan, is cited alongside mainstays like Kirby / Metroid / Pikmin as notable benefactors of the Switch's popularity. Being one of the stronger growing series in Nintendo's arsenal, according to Nintendo themselves, I feel like it's likely to at least maintain whatever it's built up so far.
 
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Gengar84

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I'm not saying a character can't be in or that LoL shouldn't get in, to be clear. Just that it's not likely a fighter in Smash would have much of an effect on LoL itself when a show that was popular even with those who never played LoL or followed lore didn't attract an extended playerbase despite said popularity.
Yeah, I agree with this. League seems to have a very enfranchised audience and the games only really appeal to hardcore competitive players. A lot of Arcane fans did try out League for a bit but it didn’t last because the competitiveness of the game is too stressful. So I agree that Smash would necessarily help LoL itself. What it could help with is League’s future console games like 2XKO or whatever other games they might make. So far, their console games have been pretty niche. Ruined Ming was a lot of fun but it was clearly more of a budget game that didn’t have a huge audience. Getting a character in Smash would likely help games like that.

As far as Xenoblade goes, it’s one of my favorite series and I definitely don’t think they should be absent in Smash altogether but I don’t necessarily think it needs a new character every Smash game. I’d be happy to see another character and they are among my most wanted first party newcomers but I’m not really going to be upset if they just stick with Shulk and Pyra/Mythra for Smash 6.
 
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