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Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

SMAASH! Puppy

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Was this a part of his last administration? I don’t remember paying tariffs on my physical games during his first term.

Furthermore, what about digital releases?
I don't know for sure but if I were to hazard a guess I'd say no.

I also have no idea how it affects digital releases. It probably depends on if it affects products that aren't shipped or not. If it doesn't affect them, that would be pretty good. I don't particularly care for the idea of buying digital only, but if it saves me $17-$20 each...

Anyway, back on topic: Who do you think will be the first character they show off for Smash 6? Do you think there’s any chance it could be a third party character?
Mario or a big Nintendo newcomer like Tom Nook or the Squid Sisters or something.
 

Gengar84

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I dunno, man. As a professional Pokemon historian I can tell you that they really like having new generations drop on anniversary years, and have went out of their way to make sure that happened in recent years.

The whole reason we didn’t get a Pokemon Z is because they scrapped it to focus on getting Sun and Moon out in time for 2016, the 20th anniversary. Not to mention that there’s stuff in the teraleak that suggests the next generation is dropping soon.

Gen 10 in 2026 seems pretty likely, is all I’m saying. And this would be the first generation in 20 years to have a four year development cycle instead of the usual three. I know one extra year isn’t anything crazy, but giving the game even just a bit more dev time definitely helps.
Fair point. Maybe it’s just wishful thinking that they wouldn’t rush out another half finished game after Scarlet and Violet but they have no reason not to after it selling so well. I’m just hoping it’s decent. I love Pokémon but I feel it’s really been failing to live up to its potential since Sun and Moon. My disappointment started with ORAS and their reasoning for not including the Battle Frontier.
 
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fogbadge

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Fair point. Maybe it’s just wishful thinking that they wouldn’t rush out another half finished game after Scarlet and Violet but they have no reason not to after it selling so well. I’m just hoping it’s decent. I love Pokémon but I feel it’s really been failing to live up to its potential since Sun and Moon. My disappointment started with ORAS and their reasoning for not including the Battle Frontier.
The fact that gen 10 wasn’t announced on Pokemon day means they’re taking longer
 

Gengar84

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Is it sad to say that the price increases are one of my lower concerns? But that might be because my family has been stocking up since the possibility became more clear.
Same here. The higher prices suck and were completely avoidable but I’m more concerned about human rights than higher prices. I’ve got enough saved up that I can get by for a while. I’ve been looking into getting an EU citizenship through my grandfather’s birth in Portugal but that’s a ton of hassle that I’m not sure I’m equipped for.

Uhhh…. What kind of improvements would you like to see in Stage Builder? I’d love to be able to select from way more backgrounds and change material colors and spawn points. I’d also love an option to create our own Break the Targets, Board the Platforms, and Race to the Finish stages and share them online.
 

BrawlX10

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I think it’s too early for a new Smash to be revealed
Brawl was revealed when Melee was 4 years old. Smash 4 was revealed when Brawl was 5 years old.
Ultimate is currently 6 years old, i don't think it's too early, when it's the longest a game has been without been revealed in the series.
 
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GoldenYuiitusin

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Brawl was revealed when Melee was 4 years old. Smash 4 was revealed when Brawl was 5 years old.
Ultimate is currently 6 years old, i don't think it's too early, when it's the longest a game has been without been revealed in the series.
Hasn't been four years since Ultimate's last character addition.

It will be at the end of the year though.
 

Gengar84

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Hasn't been four years since Ultimate's last character addition.

It will be at the end of the year though.
True but I don’t think the DLC takes as many resources as base game development. So while it hasn’t quite been 4 years since the DLC ended, it’s been over 6 years since the game launched. Even if they started shortly after the DLC for Ultimate ended, it’s not quite the same as if they were in full game development the whole time. That’s just a hunch though.
 

BrawlX10

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I just want a teaser. A twenty second shot of Mario with the Smash logo and then “Holiday 2026.” Nothing more.

I agree that Smash shouldn’t overshadow everything else about the Switch 2 yet, so I don’t want a full blown reveal. I also want the opposite of a shadow drop. I’m quite nostalgic for the years of speculation after Smash 4 was announced and then the year and a half of speculation after it was properly unveiled and slowly revealed everything else. Ultimate’s more speedy approach of revealing everything in just a few trailers over a few months was fun, but I like the “speculation game” and I’d like it to really last this time around.

But yeah, I want a teaser asap so they can at least open the damn character support threads around here lol
Unfortunately, even if they anounce the game officially with title, gameplay and a few newcomers and veterans in the April direct and the game is stated to be Holiday 2026 release, that's still no guarantee we'll get a Brawl DOJO-style of pre-release. Ultimate did something similar with the Smash Blog (Altrough it was a very rushed and barebones version of the dojo) so there's deffinitely a chance Sakurai decides to do a new DOJO, but i'm personally not getting my hopes up. The dojo updates ran from May 22, 2007 to January 31, 2008, so about 7 months would be enough.
Personally i prefer the Brawl dojo over Smash 4 Pic of the Day, but i'd definitely much rather POTD than whatever Smash Blog was xD.
 
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Will

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True but I don’t think the DLC takes as many resources as base game development. So while it hasn’t quite been 4 years since the DLC ended, it’s been over 6 years since the game launched. Even if they started shortly after the DLC for Ultimate ended, it’s not quite the same as if they were in full game development the whole time. That’s just a hunch though.
Didn’t Sakurai state that Ultimate did not start development until after the release of Bayonetta, the last SSB4 DLC?
 

Gengar84

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Didn’t Sakurai state that Ultimate did not start development until after the release of Bayonetta, the last SSB4 DLC?
I wasn’t suggesting otherwise. I was just saying Smash 6 could have started shortly after Ultimate’s DLC finished, which would still line up with his project plan. The two years of working on just the DLC for Ultimate could have served as a break from full game development even if he started the next project shortly after.
 
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BrawlX10

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Didn’t Sakurai state that Ultimate did not start development until after the release of Bayonetta, the last SSB4 DLC?
I mean Smash 4 started dev in 2012 and released in 2014, which was 2 years, Ult also was in a similar timeframe starting in 2016 and ending in 2018.
If Smash 6 comes out in late 2026 that would be 5 years since Sora droped, so it doesn't really matter atm, honestly.
 
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Diddy Kong

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I mean Smash 4 started dev in 2012 and released in 2014, which was 2 years, Ult also was in a similar timeframe starting in 2016 and ending in 2018.
If Smash 6 comes out in late 2026 that would be 5 years since Sora droped, so it doesn't really matter atm, honestly.
Which means this next game probably had so much development time that triumphing Ultimate's content would be possible.

Just saying.
 

Gengar84

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Which means this next game probably had so much development time that triumphing Ultimate's content would be possible.

Just saying.
Yeah, I don’t think we’re going to drastically scale back the roster. Especially when that was such a huge part of Ultimate’s success. I could see them cutting a few of the more minor characters so they have more time to work on more exciting newcomers for the base game but I’m not predicting a much smaller starting roster size than Ultimate’s.
 
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Undella2

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Yeah, I don’t think we’re going to drastically scale back the roster. Especially when that was such a huge part of Ultimate’s success. I could see them cutting a few more minor characters so they have more time to work on more exciting newcomers for the base game but I’m not predicting a much smaller starting roster size than Ultimate’s.
Yeah, some people say "oh, smash should go back to like a Brawl-era sized roster as a reboot of the series in order to refresh all the remaining veterans' movesets" and while I don't deny that Samus, DK, Mario, etc.'s movesets could use a rework / update to bring them to the standards of newer characters, part of Smash's draw is the massive cast of characters / content from a wide variety of different series. Cutting that aspect down substantially would limit such a draw for a large amount of people.

(And with higher prices for games and related products undoubtedly coming in the near future, games need all the draw / public interest they can get.)
 

TheFirstPoppyBro

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What's everyone's thoughts on whether or not Smash could be a launch title or otherwise release shortly after the Switch 2 itself is released at this point?
There's no way in my mind Smash releases this year. Even if it does get revealed at the Switch 2 Direct, if it releases in December like Ultimate did, that's a month less for marketing than even Ultimate got and Ultimate revealed 65/69 of its base game roster in ONE trailer.

A game without Everyone Is Here would presumably take longer just for revealing veterans, let alone if it's a more standard affair with more than 6 newcomers, like most of us are hoping it will be. And that's not even taking into account that the April Direct isn't gonna just shadow drop the console, I assume the Switch 2 won't even be out until June or July.

Considering Melee is the only game in the series that's ever been a launch title, I highly doubt we're gonna see Smash much if at all in the first year, let alone right out of the gate.
 

Gengar84

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Yeah, some people say "oh, smash should go back to like a Brawl-era sized roster as a reboot of the series in order to refresh all the remaining veterans' movesets" and while I don't deny that Samus, DK, Mario, etc.'s movesets could use a rework / update to bring them to the standards of newer characters, part of Smash's draw is the massive cast of characters / content from a wide variety of different series. Cutting that aspect down substantially would limit such a draw for a large amount of people.

(And with higher prices for games and related products undoubtedly coming in the near future, games need all the draw / public interest they can get.)
Yup, what I’ve been hearing from a lot of people is:
  1. It’s way too soon for a new Smash game.
  2. Expect a much smaller roster than Ultimate.
  3. They’ll never do a big story mode like SSE again.
So we’ll have to wait a lot longer for a game with a smaller roster and no big adventure mode? What exactly am I supposed to get excited for? Especially if I enjoy the moveset of the large majority of characters and the ones they have changed so far made me enjoy them less than I used to. I thought I was pessimistic but I don’t see that scenario as particularly likely.
 
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DarthEnderX

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yeah but everyone seems dead keen for Nintendo to bring out all their big hitters asap rather than let them be nicely spread out with decent dev times
Do both. Bring out the big hitters ASAP. Then let them be nicely spread out via DLC.

The only game revealed so far is Mario Kart. I don’t think it’s too much a stretch to have one big game at launch and another either for the holiday or some time the following year.
Frankly, its kind of ludicrous that having more than one big game at launch would be considered a stretch.

The first Switch at launch was $300 USD.

Switch 2's pricing.......maybe $350-400 as it does have snap in and mouse features with better fireware and hardware to boot.
That might have been the case...before tariffs.

What's everyone's thoughts on whether or not Smash could be a launch title or otherwise release shortly after the Switch 2 itself is released at this point?
I want it and think it's a possibility.
 

Gengar84

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While I would like certain veterans to have their movesets reworked, I don't think they should cut the roster back drastically. It should be more than Smash 4 but lesser than Ultimate.
A lot of it depends on who they keep and who the newcomers are. I care more about being able to play characters I enjoy more than the actual roster size. It’s just that a larger size means a higher chance of keeping my favorites and getting newcomers I’d be excited for.
 

TheFirstPoppyBro

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Also alongside all the stuff I saw a couple pages back about it being "too early for Smash", I personally just don't think the 2021 project being Smash makes any sense at all.

Every Smash game since Melee has started development a year before their console comes out, which would point to last year, not 2021/2022.

Sakurai said his project plan was drafted "lightning-quick" but with he himself saying Everyone Is Here is unlikely to happen again, I will continue to doubt that the next Smash would be an easy, fast project plan to make considering things like hard decisions on possible cuts, because making a port would be stupid when the Switch 2 is already confirmed to be backwards compatible and can just play Ultimate anyway, plus Smash never does ports.

Bandai Namco, who has worked on the last two games and I see no reason why they would be left out, announced their Nintendo studios in 2023 and then began a big hiring wave until some time last year while ALSO making new Spirit Events for Ultimate, including events for first party characters, both of which make NO SENSE in my opinion to do when you're already two years deep into development of the NEXT Smash and instead make more sense to be stuff you do between projects, so to me it feels like I'm being told "Namco isn't involved even though they literally made Nintendo support studios" or "Namco is involved but they kept their support studio hidden and had MASSIVE turnover rates for some reason".

In my mind it makes a ton more sense for Sakurai's "lightning-fast" project to be a smaller side project, possibly as a launch title for the Switch 2 like Kid Icarus Uprising was supposed to be for the 3DS, and then nearly two years into its development, Sakurai drafted a project plan for Smash on Switch 2, Namco started hiring to put the team together, and it began development when the Spirit Events ended and the hiring was finished, tying into Sakurai's statement of typically going from project to project seamlessly while also making it last year, which would likely place the next Smash somewhere in 2026/2027 range for release.

I'm not gonna argue about it with anyone specifically because at this point it's opinion vs opinion, but that's just my thoughts on the matter.
 

Undella2

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A lot of it depends on who they keep and who the newcomers are. I care more about being able to play characters I enjoy more than the actual roster size. It’s just that a larger size means a higher chance of keeping my favorites and getting newcomers I’d be excited for.
I agree with this sentiment... my main is Lucina... and she's quite likely to get cut if the roster size decreases significantly haha.

(For whatever reason, I just don't like playing as Marth and having to deal with the tipper stuff, despite liking the overall moveset)
 

MBRedboy31

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Yup, what I’ve been hearing from a lot of people is:
  1. It’s way too soon for a new Smash game.
  2. Expect a much smaller roster than Ultimate.
  3. They’ll never do a big story mode like SSE again.
So we’ll have to wait a lot longer for a game with a smaller roster and no big adventure mode? What exactly am I supposed to get excited for? Especially if I enjoy the moveset of the large majority of characters and the ones they have changed so far made me enjoy them less than I used to. I thought I was pessimistic but I don’t see that scenario as particularly likely.
Graphics. You get to get excited for graphics. Welcome to 2020s AAA gaming. Now that Nintendo has a console that isn’t as outdated, they’re stuck with the long dev time + massive budget woes plaguing everyone else.

…But seriously, I think we’re just trying to keep our expectations down, just in case. It’s more fun to be pleasantly surprised than to expect too much and get let down.

I wonder if they have any game-changing new ideas that don’t really have any equivalent in past Smash games.
 

Gengar84

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Also alongside all the stuff I saw a couple pages back about it being "too early for Smash", I personally just don't think the 2021 project being Smash makes any sense at all.

Every Smash game since Melee has started development a year before their console comes out, which would point to last year, not 2021/2022.

Sakurai said his project plan was drafted "lightning-quick" but with he himself saying Everyone Is Here is unlikely to happen again, I will continue to doubt that the next Smash would be an easy, fast project plan to make considering things like hard decisions on possible cuts, because making a port would be stupid when the Switch 2 is already confirmed to be backwards compatible and can just play Ultimate anyway, plus Smash never does ports.

Bandai Namco, who has worked on the last two games and I see no reason why they would be left out, announced their Nintendo studios in 2023 and then began a big hiring wave until some time last year while ALSO making new Spirit Events for Ultimate, including events for first party characters, both of which make NO SENSE in my opinion to do when you're already two years deep into development of the NEXT Smash and instead make more sense to be stuff you do between projects, so to me it feels like I'm being told "Namco isn't involved even though they literally made Nintendo support studios" or "Namco is involved but they kept their support studio hidden and had MASSIVE turnover rates for some reason".

In my mind it makes a ton more sense for Sakurai's "lightning-fast" project to be a smaller side project, possibly as a launch title for the Switch 2 like Kid Icarus Uprising was supposed to be for the 3DS, and then nearly two years into its development, Sakurai drafted a project plan for Smash on Switch 2, Namco started hiring to put the team together, and it began development when the Spirit Events ended and the hiring was finished, tying into Sakurai's statement of typically going from project to project seamlessly while also making it last year, which would likely place the next Smash somewhere in 2026/2027 range for release.

I'm not gonna argue about it with anyone specifically because at this point it's opinion vs opinion, but that's just my thoughts on the matter.
No, I think that’s a reasonable argument and you very well could be right. My logic is that Smash has always released within the first two years of a console’s life and releasing early gives them more a chance to further extend its life through DLC. I do think there’s a solid case to be made for either side and no one really knows anything yet. Hopefully we’ll find out in April.
 

Guynamednelson

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It’s just that a larger size means a higher chance of keeping my favorites and getting newcomers I’d be excited for.
Once again, it's a larger amount of newcomers that makes it more likely we'll get abnormal choices. Did you forget that Jigglypuff and Ness didn't have to wait until Bowser and Mewtwo and Wario and a whole lot of other choices westerns would approve of more to get in?
 
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Undella2

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No, I think that’s a reasonable argument and you very well could be right. My logic is that Smash has always released within the first two years of a console’s life and releasing early gives them more a chance to further extend its life through DLC. I do think there’s a solid case to be made for either side and no one really knows anything yet. Hopefully we’ll find out in April.
And even if they had started development just a year / year and a half ago or whatnot, they could still put out a quick "hey the next smash game is in development" in April or so even if no other details were provided.
 

Gengar84

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Once again, it's a larger amount of newcomers that makes it less likely we'll get abnormal choices. Did you forget that Jigglypuff and Ness didn't have to wait until Bowser and Mewtwo and Wario and a whole lot of other choices westerns would approve of more to get in?
I’m sorry but I just don’t follow that logic. More characters means more chances of seeing one you care about.
 

TheFirstPoppyBro

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No, I think that’s a reasonable argument and you very well could be right. My logic is that Smash has always released within the first two years of a console’s life and releasing early gives them more a chance to further extend its life through DLC. I do think there’s a solid case to be made for either side and no one really knows anything yet. Hopefully we’ll find out in April.
With the released in first two years thing, I think that would depend on when it releases, because I don't expect the Switch 2's first year to start until like halfway through the year or later, and that's just based on the Switch's reveal-to-release pipeline (January to March).

And even if it does come out in 2027 though, the Switch lasted 8 years, and if the Switch 2 follows suit, it wouldn't be on its way out until like 2033, which is more than enough time for the next Smash to have plenty of DLC. Even if it's just a standard 6 year generation, it'd still be like 2031, which would be four years out from its release, and Ultimate's only took 3 years lol

I do hope we get told they're working on Smash at least like they have for most of the other games, I just don't expect it to have started development immediately after Sora with its project plan drafted before he's even announced is all lol
 

Guynamednelson

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I’m sorry but I just don’t follow that logic. More characters means more chances of seeing one you care about.
But they had to play it safe all throughout Ultimate because they were only adding a small amount of newcomers in the base, FP1, and FP2. It'd be the same thing again if they are still only adding 5-6 unique newcomers.
 

Gengar84

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With the released in first two years thing, I think that would depend on when it releases, because I don't expect the Switch 2's first year to start until like halfway through the year or later, and that's just based on the Switch's reveal-to-release pipeline (January to March).

And even if it does come out in 2027 though, the Switch lasted 8 years, and if the Switch 2 follows suit, it wouldn't be on its way out until like 2033, which is more than enough time for the next Smash to have plenty of DLC. Even if it's just a standard 6 year generation, it'd still be like 2031, which would be four years out from its release, and Ultimate's only took 3 years lol

I do hope we get told they're working on Smash at least like they have for most of the other games, I just don't expect it to have started development immediately after Sora with its project plan drafted before he's even announced is all lol
True but my argument is that it wouldn’t come out in 2027 in that scenario. If Sakurai’s project isn’t Smash and finishes development this year, they likely wouldn’t start Smash 6 until then. If Smash 6 development starts this year or next, we’re looking at something closer to a 2029-2030 release date if we want to give them enough time to fully develop the game.
 

RileyXY1

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True but my argument is that it wouldn’t come out in 2027 in that scenario. If Sakurai’s project isn’t Smash and finishes development this year, they likely wouldn’t start Smash 6 until then. If Smash 6 development starts this year or next, we’re looking at something closer to a 2029-2030 release date if we want to give them enough time to fully develop the game.
And that might run a little too close to the Switch 3's release, meaning that Smash might even skip the Switch 2 altogether, and I can't see them doing that.
 

PeridotGX

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What's everyone's thoughts on whether or not Smash could be a launch title or otherwise release shortly after the Switch 2 itself is released at this point?
I don't think it's all that likely. Brawl, Smash Wii U, and Ultimate released in the second mostly-full year of their consoles life, I think Smash 6 will probably fit that pattern and release in 2026.
 
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TheFirstPoppyBro

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True but my argument is that it wouldn’t come out in 2027 in that scenario. If Sakurai’s project isn’t Smash and finishes development this year, they likely wouldn’t start Smash 6 until then. If Smash 6 development starts this year or next, we’re looking at something closer to a 2029-2030 release date if we want to give them enough time to fully develop the game.
I mean yes, but that's why I think the 2021/2022 project is a smaller side project and Smash started development last year after Namco's Nintendo support studio finished hiring and the Spirit Events finished up. The Spirit Events ended in March last year, so it would depend on the hiring but I've heard they finished hiring in like June? So development would've started around mid-2024 if this scenario I'm talking about is correct.
 
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