Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[Gorgonzales]

With the massive amount of fans who just want a port of Ultimate and not a fully new game, I'm concerned that the expectations are far too high and the new game will never reach them unless they go the Ultimate Deluxe route, which I highly doubt.

If there is a new Smash, people will buy it. Doesn't matter what form it takes or if it's even lacking in content, it will sell like hotcakes.

Brand names sell no matter the actual quality. Pokemon is living proof of this.

 

[Guynamednelson]

With the massive amount of fans who just want a port of Ultimate and not a fully new game, I'm concerned that the expectations are far too high and the new game will never reach them unless they go the Ultimate Deluxe route, which I highly doubt.

Have you run out of things to doubt that you're doubting a new Smash itself?

 

[Schnee117]

Kof 15 was really sad. The only chance that game had was at release. They pumped it with DLC support, eventually fixed the online, but it just didn't matter because the launch was absolutely horrendous. And it's a cycle. Bad online? No one will play the game. Fixed online? Doesn't matter because nobody's playing. But it's good now? No it's not because nobody is playing. Online is useless when there's no player base to speak of. They never established a large community of players because everybody abandoned the game right after launch and dropping the ball so early made it impossible to gain momentum.

GG Strive is kind of the opposite example. Like KoF, it was a relatively niche series that always relied on a small fanbase, but the netcode and matchmaking in Strive was incredible and it helped snowball that game into being way more successful than anyone would have expected. And the amount of content at launch was nothing impressive, but they had the luxury of slowly adding content because they hooked a loyal fanbase early on, which never would have happened if the online wasn't functional.

...That said, while I pray that Smash can finally get some good online I still don't really think they need it, even in a post-2020 world. Smash is a lot of things. It appeals to a lot of people. It's the one fighting game that can actually get away with the bare minimum in terms of online. I do have faith that they'll make better netcode a priority for next game because of how much of a standard it is, but I'd be lying if I said it was necessary for Smash's success.

Yeah it won't need good online to still succeed in the broader sense. As long as people can still have Mario, Sonic, Pikachu, Ryu, Cloud, Pac-Man, Link and Isabelle fight each other on Castlevania it'll sell gangbusters so long as the Switch 2 doesn't flop hard. It's just one of the problems that became more glaring and apparent during lockdown so it'd be nice if they addressed concerns because online is still a very important part of the game. Would very much like to actually be able to play people who live in other countries without it feeling like both of us are on mcdonalds wifi instead of a wired connection.

Still, I'm concerned that it might flop because it didn't meet the massive expectations set on it by Ultimate and the players will just keep playing Ultimate (which you can play on the Switch 2) instead of buying the new game.

 

[Hadokeyblade]

I feel like Shadow has enough stuff to be a semi clone or even something similar to how Wolf was handled rather than an Echo.

After Shadow Generations he has enough unique moves to be his own separate character.

 

[Louie G.]

Shadow has enough to be his own thing, but I feel like it's worth looking at Smash's existing precedent. Characters who share abilities, silhouettes and/or theming tend to share a good amount of structure. Sakurai won't be at a loss for coming up with unique, character-informed attacks for Shadow like Luigi, Falco / Wolf or Isabelle, but also like these fighters I anticipate he would be conceptualized as a Sonic variant.

As much as I love Isabelle, and I enjoy what unique flavor she offers in her own right, Villager's more specialized moveset design gives her a similar gameplan - both being zoners with slingshot aerials, their bread and butter is largely shared. Fox is perhaps more standardized where his basic moveset is so simple that it can work spread across different archetypes. I'd love more characters who can meaningfully expand on templates like the latter.

My hope then would be that Sonic is tweaked meaningfully enough for that to even be a fun idea at all. In Shadow's case though, making the basic design of Sonic as is and maintaining Shadow's similar emphasis on lightning speed will probably just create another overbearing campy hit and run fighter which is not particularly welcome IMO. But I remain optimistic that the recent motion within Sonic's series will compel Sakurai to revisit him, and/or Sega to request further changes to make him more engaging.

 

[Thegameandwatch]

With the massive amount of fans who just want a port of Ultimate and not a fully new game, I'm concerned that the expectations are far too high and the new game will never reach them unless they go the Ultimate Deluxe route, which I highly doubt.

A port will feel repetitive even with new features since there are also many that want something new. If there isn't a new game then it will take a long time for the next one. An example is Mario Kart and GTA where they didn't get a major new entry for 10 years until their next major installment got teased in 2025 and 2023 respectively. I know MK Tour exists but that's more of a spin-off.

Also Ultimate is backwards compatible with Switch 2 so they can easily just update it if Smash 6 isn't planned.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Let's try a though experiment.

Let's say a new Smash releases and there are cuts.

But these five characters stay.

What do you think would be the developer's justifications for keeping these five? They don't all have to have the same reason.

 

[Perkilator]

Let's try a though experiment.

Let's say a new Smash releases and there are cuts.

But these five characters stay.

What do you think would be the developer's justifications for keeping these five? They don't all have to have the same reason.

I think Incineroar could at least be justified on account of its moveset leaning into the wrestler archetype, which is a staple of grapplers in fighting games.

 

[Thegameandwatch]

Let's try a though experiment.

Let's say a new Smash releases and there are cuts.

But these five characters stay.

What do you think would be the developer's justifications for keeping these five? They don't all have to have the same reason.

: Clone characters are easy to add compared to more complex characters
: Potential Mask Transformations

: Lol

: Unique Playstyle and recent compared to lot of the Pokemon in Smash. Most likely of the 5 to stay in Smash 6.

: Fire Emblem Fates sold well.

 

[LimeTH]

I think I'm opposed to an Ultimate port for two reasons.

One, it has the same problem as Mario Kart 8, we've had this game for close to ten years now. If an Ultimate port is all Switch 2 gets, and the Switch 2 is around for as long as the Switch 1 has been, that's almost 20 years without a new Smash game.

Two, more personally, a considerable chunk of my wishlist characters are in Assist Trophy/Pokeball hell. They're probably more likely to get upgraded to playable in a new game than they are a port.

All I know is if we go one more Smash game without playable Ashley, I'm going to lose my mind.

Let's try a though experiment.

Let's say a new Smash releases and there are cuts.

But these five characters stay.

What do you think would be the developer's justifications for keeping these five? They don't all have to have the same reason.

The last three are easy, they have their own unique movesets and niches.

The other two, ehhhh, ease of development?

 

[Guynamednelson]

What do you think would be the developer's justifications for keeping these five?

• Pichu's buffs, combined with Ultimate selling way more in Melee, means it'd have way more fans regarding Smash now than it did 20 years ago.
• Young Link seemingly has a bigger playerbase than Toon Link, at least in the West. TL also doesn't have recency to go by anymore due to the lack of Zelda games on the Switch with the Toon Link artstyle.
• For the rest of the three, it'd be their uniqueness.

Two, more personally, a considerable chunk of my wishlist characters are in Assist Trophy/Pokeball hell. They're probably more likely to get upgraded to playable in a new game than they are a port.

We'd be more likely to get newcomers in a new game than a port, period.

 

[Ivander]

Let's try a though experiment.

Let's say a new Smash releases and there are cuts.

But these five characters stay.

What do you think would be the developer's justifications for keeping these five? They don't all have to have the same reason.

First two: Easy clones, especially now that they got a recent new model that they can update for the most part for future games.
Piranha Plant: Unique Mario character, got quite a bit of exposure with Super Mario Bros. Wonder and as already mentioned, it's a Mario character, making it more recognisable than most other characters in the roster.
Incineroar: Unique archetype and is one of the more heavyweight characters in a roster filled with a lot of speedy and balanced characters.
Corrin: One of the more unique Fire Emblem characters, helps represent the Manaketes from Fire Emblem and has still been appearing a fair bit(with their latest appearance being Engage, but also appearing in Shadows of Valentia, Warriors and Heroes). And regardless of Smash reception, the female version is still very popular, though the male version has been slowly getting more popular as time passes.

 

[Louie G.]

What do you think would be the developer's justifications for keeping these five?

- Probably a late stage clone addition, has a unique recoil damage quirk and provides another "cutesy" Pokemon to balance out what is likely to be a lineup of "cool" and largely humanoid Pokemon by default.

- Well, I think Young Link is actually played more than Toon Link in-game so maybe they took some of the online usage data into account. And Young Link is just as viable a choice to return as Toon Link at the end of the day, the latter is just more visually distinct and covers his own branch of the series. I wouldn't be scratching my head all that hard if Young Link is just the favored child Link variant this time.

- Evergreen and recognizable character, dynamic role in the roster as a mook and a moveset unlike any other character on behalf of its er... "body" type. They clearly had a lot of fun animating Plant and it remains one of the roster's quirkier surprises that has seen a fair bit of retrospective appreciation.

- Smash's most pure archetypical grappler, and we know directly that Sakurai wanted to add a wrestler to the roster. It's extremely easy to see why Incineroar would come back, actually. I think they have a significantly higher chance than these other characters even if I'm not all the way convinced.

- Perhaps Corrin comes back in a Fire Emblem roster that prioritizes diversity in the wake of the usual debates surrounding the series representation, with their dragon abilities really elevating their moveset into something fresh. I think it's a bit of a hard sell over their more popular counterparts but Sakurai was driven to add them because of their distinct abilities. It's safe to say if a character was deemed worthy enough or interesting enough to add once before, that same pedigree can carry over into the future.

 

[Watuna4343]

With the massive amount of fans who just want a port of Ultimate and not a fully new game, I'm concerned that the expectations are far too high and the new game will never reach them unless they go the Ultimate Deluxe route, which I highly doubt.

That will happen, be prepared but also what will also happen? People will support it and praise it. Smash is just big now, people are gonna buy it and if the game is good, even with a cut roster, there will absolutely be people who'll praise it and it won't be a minority or something. After all, the next Smash rather than backlash will instead serve as a wake up call to unrealistic expectations.

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

"Mr. Sakurai, why are you keeping Piranha Plant?"

Sakurai: "funy"

 

[Watuna4343]

Let's try a though experiment.

Let's say a new Smash releases and there are cuts.

But these five characters stay.

What do you think would be the developer's justifications for keeping these five? They don't all have to have the same reason.

The first two, I mean ease of development maybe?
Piranha Plant, a novel concept that will be lost with it if it gets cut (?)
Incineroar, a unique fighting style that will get lost if Incineroar gets cut (I would actually say Incineroar is closer to a 50/50 in terms of coming back or getting cut rather than a 'definite cut', definitely has the highest chances out of the 5 to stay)
Corrin, someone from the dev team has a boner for Corrin and that's literally it

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

"Mr. Sakurai, why are you keeping Piranha Plant?"

Sakurai: "funy"

Genuinely, if we go back to Dojo style updates like Smash 4 (which I kinda hope we do if veterans don't all get confirmed at once), I'm the guy who'd be sitting there hoping Plant gets confirmed on the Pic of the Day just for the chaos/salt of it all.

 

[Laniv]

Let's try a though experiment.

Let's say a new Smash releases and there are cuts.

But these five characters stay.

What do you think would be the developer's justifications for keeping these five? They don't all have to have the same reason.

Takes a fraction of the time made to develop a more unique character

See above (that and the need for a child Link)

Because it's funny lol

It's a grappler, which is something every fighting game needs

Because they use something other than a sword (presumably in the context of Corrin staying over someone like Roy?)

 

[Perkilator]

Imagine if Waluigi was the first newcomer revealed for the next Smash game…and then right before launch, Piranha Plant is the last veteran revealed and thus the last base game character revealed. That would be so full circle.

 

[Noipoi]

Let's try a though experiment.

Let's say a new Smash releases and there are cuts.

But these five characters stay.

What do you think would be the developer's justifications for keeping these five? They don't all have to have the same reason.

Pichu: Likely doesn’t take up too many resources to make. Has a unique gimmick with the self inflicted damage. Adds one more cute Pokemon in a collection of gruff monsters and sleek humanoids.

Piranha Plant: Has a very unique moveset. It’s an incredibly recognizable character. Had a little time in the spotlight recently with Mario Wonder.

Incineroar: A more recent Pokemon to balance out the abundance of Gen 1 characters. Is the only example of the grappler archetype, which Sakurai expressed interest in. Very fun moveset. You can tell they put a lot of effort into the personality and expressions of this character, and perhaps they don’t want all that work to fall to the wayside just yet.

Corrin: Despite being a controversial character from a controversial game, in the context of Smash they’re one of the most unique Fire Emblem characters in a roster where most of them play the same. And while it wasn’t received the best, Fates sold just fine.

Young Link: Having three Links of varying sizes is really funny

 

[Swamp Sensei]

sled inflicted damage

Pichu was never the same after the accident.

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

Pichu was never the same after the accident.

Why do you think it took so long for it to return to Smash?

Years of physical therapy and surgery.

 

[Thegameandwatch]

I feel like the order from most to least likely would probably be like this

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

Why do you think it took so long for it to return to Smash?

Years of physical therapy and surgery.

There is also that old theory that Pichu in Melee is Pikachu in Brawl and Smash 4 because Pikachu can wall jump in later games and goggles alt.

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

There is also that old theory that Pichu in Melee is Pikachu in Brawl and Smash 4 because Pikachu can wall jump in later games and goggles alt.

Yeah, but that theory's boring.
My explanation is funnier.

 

[dream1ng]

With the massive amount of fans who just want a port of Ultimate and not a fully new game, I'm concerned that the expectations are far too high and the new game will never reach them unless they go the Ultimate Deluxe route, which I highly doubt.

Doesn't matter. People will complain, then still buy the game, then have realigned expectations going forward.

Every Smash game dashes peoples' expectations, because for some reason a lot of people actually start expecting characters they should merely be hoping for.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Genuinely, what is there to be pessimistic about? They’re arguably the most popular characters from a series that has grown exponentially over the last console era, they’re used by a lot of people and they represent probably the most streamlined stance-change mechanic in the game on a fundamental level. Among a roster of popular new additions from Ultimate, assuming we’re losing a number of third parties, I feel like it would be unproductive to needlessly cut off first parties like this - and you cut a lot of guests. I think your cutting of K. Rool is unnecessary for similar reasons.

Even in the instance that Xenoblade 3 got new content I can’t see Pyra / Mythra being cut. And you aren’t even advocating for that, so frankly I find it very unrealistic that Xenoblade will scale back.

…also man, Ryu is not getting cut. We have three fighting game characters in Smash already, Ryu has been the foundation for this style of moveset design and wiping this whole slate is honestly a bit disrespectful. Not saying Kazuya and Terry need to be back too but surely at least one of them can stay.

Part of the deal is the roster size limit. King K. Rool is never on any of my rosters because I can't fit him in: It's usually a choice between adding him or Mr. Game & Watch or Min Min, or Isabelle or a cut that nobody would seriously entertain.

Pyra/Mythra is two characters, so it's even more difficult to place them when you have to delete two other pretty important additions*. I kinda have been persuaded that they really are pretty important characters to have for Xenoblade Chronicles's cast, so I'll probably try a bit harder on future rosters but...transforming characters really suck in this exercise.

Ryu I actually almost kept, and swapped in Mega Man at the last minute for arbitrary reasons. I'm sure you'll take issue with Ryu and Mega Man being either/or in the first place, but again, I can't add everyone, so some bigger cuts have to happen. It's why the roster also lacks stuff like Robin and Falco.

In the end it's all hypotheticals; rosters are meant to be a discussion starter, and I'm not actually upset or anything (in case my wording makes me come off as such). I do worry a bit about the reaction to the game's actual roster, because I can almost guarantee you it's going to have cuts that everyone beforehand is like "no way are they cutting [X CHARACTER]. Why would you even consider that as an option?"

*in terms of the oddballs, I'm thinking more in terms of some of them should exist rather than that any specific ones should exist.