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Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

Noipoi

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cashregister9 said:
He has doubled down saying that a shadow drop is a possibility, and is pretty confident saying things like "Do you know how to read a calendar?"

so in about 24 hours we will all either be grovelling or banishing him to the underworld.
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Swamp Sensei said:
Interestingly, Nate the Hate is doubling down and saying a shadow drop will happen tomorrow.

I'll believe it when I see it.
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If I wake up and there’s an announcement and/or shadow drop I’ll retract any **** I’ve talked today about leakers.
 
Garteam

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GoldenYuiitusin said:
So....no.
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Damn, what an argument. I sure learned the error of my ways.

The Stoopid Unikorn said:
Yeah, I realized that and edited it.


Pokémon has always been a known exception and the only case of Sakurai keeping a futureproof slot outright. Comparing Greninja and Incineroar to literally any other series is comparing an Applin with an actual apple.

And Mother 3 is a weird case because Lucas was planned in Melee (back when it was EarthBound 64) and the game was very much in dev hell. And also, his semi-clonish nature made him a much easier character to figure out than something as complex as Noah or Mio since Ness could be (and was) used as a foundation.
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Pokemon is a weird case because it has an ever-revolving cast of characters that necessitates future-proofing and continually updating the cast. It's not like Mario or Zelda where there's a core set of primary characters that stays consistent. Sakurai doesn't need to inquire if a new Zelda will release in the interim between Smash games because Link and Zelda are almost certainly in it.

Xenoblade is analogous to Pokemon in this regard. It was well-established that each entry would follow a new cast of characters by this point. It's not out of the question that Monolith would disclose to Sakurai that a third Xenoblade was well into development and that Sakurai would plan around that.

Whether or not he actually does this is questionable, but it's not that out there given the nature of Xenoblade as a series and the timing of the project plan and 3.
 
TheFirstPoppyBro

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Garteam said:
Xenoblade is analogous to Pokemon in this regard. It was well-established that each entry would follow a new cast of characters by this point. It's not out of the question that Monolith would disclose to Sakurai that a third Xenoblade was well into development and that Sakurai would plan around that.

Whether or not he actually does this is questionable, but it's not that out there given the nature of Xenoblade as a series and the timing of the project plan and 3.
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I mean couldn't you have said the same thing about Xenoblade 2 after the original and X and putting Shulk in Smash 4?

But Xenoblade 2 was in the "too late" club with ARMS, so like...

Like I could see Sakurai maybe accounting for it since 3 was revealed in February 2022 before his team was put together and released in July, 3 months after development would've started, but I definitely don't think it would be because Xenoblade is getting the Pokemon treatment now, and even my hypothetical relies on him potentially adding a whole newcomer to the plan after it goes into production but before the team is built while he was making his Youtube channel, which is POSSIBLE, but I dunno.
 
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GoldenYuiitusin

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TheFirstPoppyBro said:
I mean couldn't you have said the same thing about Xenoblade 2 after the original and X and putting Shulk in Smash 4?

But Xenoblade 2 was in the "too late" club with ARMS, so like...
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And even then, Xenoblade X was a thing too and got passed over entirely despite being a viable option.
 
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The Stoopid Unikorn

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Garteam said:
Pokemon is a weird case because it has an ever-revolving cast of characters that necessitates future-proofing and continually updating the cast. It's not like Mario or Zelda where there's a core set of primary characters that stays consistent. Sakurai doesn't need to inquire if a new Zelda will release in the interim between Smash games because Link and Zelda are almost certainly in it.

Xenoblade is analogous to Pokemon in this regard. It was well-established that each entry would follow a new cast of characters by this point. It's not out of the question that Monolith would disclose to Sakurai that a third Xenoblade was well into development and that Sakurai would plan around that.

Whether or not he actually does this is questionable, but it's not that out there given the nature of Xenoblade as a series and the timing of the project plan and 3.
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The difference here is that we always know a new generation of Pokemon comes out every 3 to 4 years. It's easy to plan around a franchise that's consistent.

It's not just the idea of a revolving cast. But let's say it's the sole factor and that every series ever had a chance. If that were the case, Ike wouldn't be sporting his Path of Radiance outfit in Brawl because Radiant Dawn would be known... and that's if he wouldn't have been replaced by Micaiah outright.
 
Kirbeh

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I don't know who this guy is but if he's wrong do we start calling him Nate the Bait? Hate the Nate? Why do we care again?
 
Swamp Sensei

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LiveStudioAudience said:
In the grand scheme of things would it really be that big a surprise that for one week promotion wise the only thing on... was Donkey Kong?
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If it wasn't for the leakers, I'd have argued that this week was exclusively for Donkey Kong. It's typically how Nintendo operates.

But then the leakermen came....
 
Noipoi

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Swamp Sensei said:
If it wasn't for the leakers, I'd have argued that this week was exclusively for Donkey Kong. It's typically how Nintendo operates.

But then the leakermen came....
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SOON MAY THE LEAKERMAN COME
TO SPOIL ANNOUNCEMENTS AND MAKE US LOOK DUMB
ONE DAY WHEN THE RUMORS ARE DONE
WE'LL TAKE OUR LEAKS AND GO
 
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dream1ng

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This one proliferated real far about something big so if he's wrong it's really gonna tank Nate's credibility. I mean he'll still be right about stuff, probably, overall he's fairly reliable, but no one's gonna listen to him.

I mean overall Emily Rogers was pretty reliable and had a good batting average but any time she said anything people would go WHERES MOTHER 3
 
Garteam

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TheFirstPoppyBro said:
I mean couldn't you have said the same thing about Xenoblade 2 after the original and X and putting Shulk in Smash 4?
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No, because there's an extra year of time between Ultimate's project plan and Xenoblade 2's release. That's 33% less time to develop a character and an additional 12 months where the original game can change. It may not sound like a lot, but we've seen its enough to make a difference.

The Stoopid Unikorn said:
The difference here is that we always know a new generation of Pokemon comes out every 3 to 4 years. It's easy to plan around a franchise that's consistent.

It's not just the idea of a revolving cast. But let's say it's the sole factor and that every series ever had a chance. If that were the case, Ike wouldn't be sporting his Path of Radiance outfit in Brawl because Radiant Dawn would be known... and that's if he wouldn't have been replaced by Micaiah outright.
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Pokemon predictably releasing every three years is a genuine distinction between it and Xenoblade. However, this is something that basic communication could solve, especially when 3's announcement trailer was six months away.

Radiant Dawn is also not analogous to Xenoblade 3 because it too released two years after the project plan was finalized. It too was in the position that Xenoblade 2 was in and Xenoblade 3 was not. Path of Radiance was also a month or two old at the time, so the Ike was also white hot.

In fact, Fire Emblem actually had a spot left reserved specifically for it in Brawl and, because the Wii Fire Emblem was right at the beginning of development, Ike got in. So, Sakurai has planned around series with revolving casts that aren't Pokemon and chosen the newest, practicable option before.
 
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The Stoopid Unikorn

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Garteam said:
In fact, Fire Emblem actually had a spot left reserved specifically for it in Brawl and, because the Wii Fire Emblem was right at the beginning of development, Ike got in. So, Sakurai has planned around series with revolving casts that aren't Pokemon and chosen the newest, practicable option before.
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Yeah, Ike got in due to the Wii Fire Emblem's development... but took the design from Path of Radiance, a GameCube game.

This is objectively NOT the newest option here. Yeah, he's in Radiant Dawn but he looks NOTHING like that in Radiant Dawn.
 
TheFirstPoppyBro

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Garteam said:
No, because there's an extra year of time between Ultimate's project plan and Xenoblade 2's release. That's 33% less time to develop a character and an additional 12 months where the original game can change. It may not sound like a lot, but we've seen its enough to make a difference.
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Look, I agree with you that Noah and/or Mio are definitely feasible since Xenoblade 3 came out just three months into a development that's been going on for like nearly 3 years now in this scenario instead of Xenoblade 2 coming out a year nearly to the day before Ultimate released, I just don't agree that Xenoblade is in a Pokemon style situation here lol

Like let's not forget that Sakurai was given the X and Y starters and chose Greninja before they even had NAMES lol
 
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Diddy Kong

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The Stoopid Unikorn said:
Yeah, Ike got in due to the Wii Fire Emblem's development... but took the design from Path of Radiance, a GameCube game.

This is objectively NOT the newest option here. Yeah, he's in Radiant Dawn but he looks NOTHING like that in Radiant Dawn.
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Well it might have helped Ike tremendously to have a sequel in development still.

Shame both Path of Radiance and Radiant Dawn sold so bad. That was peak Fire Emblem right there.
 
Gorgonzales

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dream1ng said:
This one proliferated real far about something big so if he's wrong it's really gonna tank Nate's credibility. I mean he'll still be right about stuff, probably, overall he's fairly reliable, but no one's gonna listen to him.
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wouldn't it be funny if nintendo delayed the reveal by a day specifically to troll leakers
 
SMAASH! Puppy

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One thing I'd like to add to the whole Xenoblade Chronicles thing is that characters from story heavy games are more difficult to add in advance than a Pokémon since Pokémon characters take a concept, run with it, and finalize it long before the game itself is complete. Characters from story based games change and grow throughout the game and its development, and if a character changes after they've been added to the game, you end up with a character like Roy.

Roy kinda dodged a bullet since his Smash interpretation is more popular it seems, but I can't imagine that working more than once, especially with well liked characters like Noah or Mio.

EDIT: To clarify since I didn't outright state this: The problem with adding a story based character early is that if anything changes the character in Smash won't match up with the character in their home game, potentially to a very strong degree.
 
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Thegameandwatch

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Gorgonzales said:
wouldn't it be funny if nintendo delayed the reveal by a day specifically to troll leakers
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Could be true to a certain extent since some of it could be real.

I think it will happen in January but it will a drop on their YouTube channel.
 
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Gengar84

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The Stoopid Unikorn said:
Speaking of Donkey Kong music in Smash, am I the only one who thinks a Sawmill Thrill remix could actually slap?
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No, I think we need a lot more David Wise music in general. I love pretty much everything I’ve heard from him and I think he’s criminally underrated. A few more of my favorites are Mining Melancholy, Lockjaw’s Saga, Flight of the Zinger, Fear Factory and Aquatic Ambience.

On another subject, I really like that Ultimate is starting to include more villains. Just sticking to first party options for now, I think Medusa, the Black Knight, Elfilis, Raven Beak, Jena Anderson, Skull Kid, Wart, King Boo, Dr. Coyle and DJ Octavio could be really cool. You never really hear Octavio brought up in discussion since he tends to get overshadowed by the idol groups but I like how completely different he is compared to the inklings.
 
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BritishGuy54

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Gengar84 said:
No, I think we need a lot more David Wise music in general. I love pretty much everything I’ve heard from him and I think he’s criminally underrated. A few more of my favorites are Mining Melancholy, Lockjaw’s Saga, Flight of the Zinger, Fear Factory and Aquatic Ambience.

On another subject, I really like that Ultimate is starting to include more villains. Just sticking to first party options for now, I think Medusa, the Black Knight, Elfilis, Raven Beak, Jena Anderson, Skull Kid, Wart, King Boo, Dr. Coyle and DJ Octavio could be really cool. You never really hear Octavio brought up in discussion since he tends to get overshadowed by the idol groups but I like how completely different he is compared to the inklings.
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I think a lot of villains will get time to shine as bosses or assist trophies.

Octavio is a slam dunk choice to bring into Smash as a boss. Calimari Inkantation playing would go hard.

I’d also say Moebius Z would be fun with the whole theatre concept of character’s games playing in the background.

King Boo to me, is a great choice for an assist trophy. Capturing fighters in paintings would be great.

Even third party bosses could be implemented. Eggman would be a neat consolation prize as a boss if he weren’t to be a fighter. I’ve talked about before how Minecraft’s Warden could spark interest from Sakurai as an Assist Trophy.
 
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