Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[pitchfulprocessing]

It makes me wonder why they never tossed out a random Wooly World port that had the new levels from the 3DS version. I guess that could still happen whenever but it feels like something they would have dropped by now already, it's one of the easiest Wii U games to port.

 

[Master_Scorpion]

Has anyone considered the possibility of getting another unevolved Pokemon as a Smash rep? Like we could potentially get Sprigatito or Floragato over Meowscarada. Floragato is actually my favorite in its line. We did get Pikachu, Pichu, Jigglypuff, Squirtle, and Ivysaur so it isn’t unprecedented. You just never really hear anyone bring any up outside of Eevee.

Bidoof

 

[Scrimblo Bimblo]

Because for Ultimate at least, most of them were decided independently from the initial project plan. They don’t really have any bearing on what the game looks like at launch, except Simon who you could lump in with K Rool and Ridley if you’d like and bring fan favorite picks and “topical” picks at a dead even 50/50. ( / ).

So factoring in all the third parties kind of distracts from the main point we’re discussing, and many weren’t even chosen by Sakurai, but how are most of them not topical anyway? Banjo & Kazooie were like the only characters there who hadn’t had a game in over five years. By nature of DLC guest characters though, who lie more on mass appeal / recognizability, it’s not very realistic to anticipate brand new characters like that to begin with.

I guess we got Joker and DQ11 Hero?

I'd say just the DQ11 Hero. Joker wasn't really representing the latest Nintendo generation at the time, and so weren't Banjo, Terry, Sephiroth and Sora.
I guess Minecraft was big on the Wii U, and there was that one Tekken game... Probably not why Kazuya got in, though.

But, I think that they're very much part of the conversation. After all, recent Nintendo characters get to have DLC spots.
Most of all, though, only counting Nintendo characters cuts about half of the newcomers out of the conversation, and with that approach I don't think you can paint a clear enough picture of what the game's actual priorities were. You see how the "fresh faces" drop from 50% of the newcomers to about 33% if you include everyone, and they drop even more if you count the echo fighters (which I get why you wouldn't... but they're still characters in the game, and even those could have been picked from more recent games).
They could have reserved a larger percentage of that development time for "up to date" characters, but they didn't. They chose a different direction instead, where they still put in some recent stuff but also gave as much (or even more) focus to fan requests and guest characters.

I'm not saying that recent stuff doesn't get focus, far from it, but I really can't see why you'd expect every single semi-major release of the last two years to get a full newcomer or a full revamp of a veteran character in the next game.
That certainly wasn't the case with Ultimate and with Brawl; Smash 4 got a lot closer but even that was less "Let's include everything from the last few years!" and more "Let's not focus on games that released before the last few years".

Above all, though... I feel like we can all agree that releasing Smash X in the time frame they deem most useful would take priority over how much up to date with recent Nintendo games Smash X is or isn't.
Let's look at the facts:
-Sakurai quickly wrote the project plan of a new game while Ultimate's last DLC characters were in development;
-That game's development started in 2022, and it still hasn't released or even been announced;
-Namco announced the existence of a "Studio S" to develop 2d games for Nintendo in 2023;
-The Smash team has been active at least since early 2024, even adding stuff to Ultimate;
-There's never been a Smash game not headed by Sakurai.

Adding up all those facts to "Sakurai's project can't possibly be Smash, they wouldn't be able to include as much stuff as they could from the later Switch games if it was!" honestly sounds completely illogical to me.
Or, to put it better, it's possible, who knows. Maybe they're making Smash without Sakurai. Or maybe he directed a quick remaster of Kid Icarus between 2022 and 2023 which is being held back for Switch 2, and then he went on to direct Smash. Or maybe the crazy ******* is directing two games at the same time. Maybe there's no Smash in development at all...
Or maybe that 2022 game is Smash.
To not even consider the simpler explanation because "they'd skip the last 2-3 years of Switch this way!" (which isn't even the case imo) is, yeah it's just kinda crazy to me.

 

[Gengar84]

My logic is that no matter when they start Smash development, it’s going to miss the last couple of years regardless. If they started in 2021 or 2022, they miss the tail end of the Switch as far as characters go. If they started today, they’ll miss the first few years of the Switch 2. You’re missing something either way so I wouldn’t worry too much about it. The good thing is that’s what DLC is for.

 

[Scrimblo Bimblo]

My logic is that no matter when they start Smash development, it’s going to miss the last couple of years regardless. If they started in 2021 or 2022, they miss the tail end of the Switch as far as characters go. If they started today, they’ll miss the first few years of the Switch 2. You’re missing something either way so I wouldn’t worry too much about it. The good thing is that’s what DLC is for.

Exactly! You're going to skip something either way. Framing it in terms of "the latest Nintendo generation" sounds pretty arbitrary to me.
Especially now that DLC exists, unlike in the Brawl days.

 

[Guynamednelson]

Or maybe the crazy ******* is directing two games at the same time

Well I guess it's not impossible, and I'm not talking about Smash for 3DS and Smash for Wii U. He would've had to direct Melee, Kirby Air Ride, and Nightmare in Dream Land within a similar timeframe.

 

[Louie G.]

Adding up all those facts to "Sakurai's project can't possibly be Smash, they wouldn't be able to include as much stuff as they could from the later Switch games if it was!" honestly sounds completely illogical to me.

To not even consider the simpler explanation because "they'd skip the last 2-3 years of Switch this way!" (which isn't even the case imo) is, yeah it's just kinda crazy to me.

I've acknowledged multiple times that I think its possible. I was expressing why it would be a pretty notable change of course for how the series has handled itself over the years, and why I personally think it would be a mistake and I initially presented my viewpoint with 'I hope that isn't the case'. But you're welcome to feel how you want to feel about it, without acting like I'm treating it like some ultimatum any more than you are.

I just think you're underselling how this has been quite a consistent routine through Smash's lifespan, I also think 2021-2026 or 2027 is a fairly long production cycle for Smash Bros. I don't think Smash will be a launch title. It's possible that Sakurai overlapped development on two projects. I also think the Studio S stuff, manifesting in 2023, is more indicative of the fact that Smash will eventually exist and not necessarily that production began two years prior. Which is something all of us pretty much agree on one way or the other.

Frankly I think the argument has been blown out of proportion a bit because if we look at the facts again, a quickly scrapped together plan for a new Smash game in 2021 that likely didn't begin actual serious production until mid to late 2023 leaves the door a little wider open than the extremist interpretation of everything being decided back in 2021. In that scenario, I do wonder where the cutoff is and which characters / designs Sakurai gets tipped off on prior. TOTK would likely be reminiscent of how BOTW was handed in Ult. It probably won't affect the way I approach speculation very much for now, either way.

Honestly I think the most likely possibility here is that the first concept scrapped up by Sakurai was Nintendo wondering where the hell Smash goes from here at all. A vague outline of how the series can progress past Ultimate. And then from there the roster gets worked out over 2022 through maybe early 2023 prior to serious production to get a product out for the Switch 2's second or third year.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

I'm wondering if the main reason why people really want those last couple of years on Switch is because just about everything else is covered. IIRC Ring Fit Adventure, Kirby and the Forgotten Land, and Pokémon Scarlet/Violet are really the only big games that got left out during Ultimate's run. I think it also would mean that characters like Oatchi would just straight up not be added, even taking DLC into consideration.

It also kinda leaves us with a big question mark on who will actually be added when most of the candidates we're thinking of aren't actually eligible.

EDIT: I would agree with the notion that the roster might not have been set in stone during 2021 even if the project plan is just because we know they've had vague "something of this type" slots in the past, albeit only for Pokémon. It also just doesn't need to be finalized until development starts, and negotiations could change character picks as well, which would explain the delay of project plan to development.

 

[SPEN18]

Speaking of Excitebiker, and by extension, Mach Rider, how do you think they would handle their bikes? Because they couldn't be on them all the time. Would they just pull them out for certain moves?

I feel like it would work (and imo make for a more novel and interesting moveset) for them to actually be on their bike all the time.

For standing, they just put their foot down. The "walking" animation could be them using their foot to push the bike forward, and dashing would of course be them riding the bike at full speed. Quick stops wouldn't be too hard, just have the back wheel lift up a bit momentarily as the bike brakes. Turning around in the dash is easy enough; from a stand it might be a little awkward to turn the whole bike around in place, but I guess they could have the bike just do a mini hop off the ground with a quick 180.
For the main jump, the front tire lifts off the ground first like in a wheelie position, then the whole bike lifts off the back tire to get into the air; I mean you can do this in real life with some bikes even from a stop, just not that high (as if Smash jump heights were realistic anyway). Double jump could be a front flip or other trick. Aerials and dodges would be tricks, too, of course.
For grabs, as was explained before, the bike can turn askew (probably requires a mini hop to reposition as above). When grabbing the ledge, they hold the ledge with one hand and the bike handlebar with the other as the bike dangles beside/beneath them. The getup animations might be a bit tricky, but could be pretty cool; they'd probably have to swing the bike up onto the stage with the one arm, re-straddling it as they do so.

Wow, that was a lot more than I though I'd end up writing, but maybe it's good to collect these ideas in one post. I'd love to make some visual aides for a lot of these but I lack the time to do that properly.

*if someone could give me an idea for the shield roll, or mention any other possible animation difficulty I missed, that would be appreciated

 

[Louie G.]

I'm wondering if the main reason why people really want those last couple of years on Switch is because just about everything else is covered. IIRC Ring Fit Adventure, Kirby and the Forgotten Land, and Pokémon Scarlet/Violet are really the only big games that got left out during Ultimate's run. I think it also would mean that characters like Oatchi would just straight up not be added, even taking DLC into consideration.

That pretty much is just why I feel jaded on it, Ultimate's continued development let us cover a fair amount of untapped bases as is. If we pretty much completely skipped over the first few years of the Switch that'd be one thing. Instead Ultimate felt like it was able to remain contemporary for several years further and only leaves this one or two year window of new material to cover. Compared to other games simply having more breathing room and by proxy setting up clearer walls between one period and another. Intentional or not, it just feels good that way.

The last few years have seen a lot of significant progress for major series that I think should be given more of a clear spotlight rather than being an afterthought with under-served content the way something like Splatoon 2 was. Splatoon 3 representation being regulated to supplement like songs and spirits, TOTK getting an obligatory stage and a couple slight mostly aesthetic tweaks to Link, Xenoblade 3 missing the boat and needing to wait its turn or get ignored... all of this sounds a little familiar. I think I'd rather just not see Ultimate's cycle run its course a second time. I'm hungrier for something new.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

That pretty much is just why I feel jaded on it, Ultimate's continued development let us cover a fair amount of untapped bases as is. If we pretty much completely skipped over the first few years of the Switch that'd be one thing. Instead Ultimate felt like it was able to remain contemporary for several years further and only leaves this one or two year window of new material to cover. Compared to other games simply having more breathing room and by proxy setting up clearer walls between one period and another. Intentional or not, it just feels good that way.

The last few years have seen a lot of significant progress for major series that I think should be given more of a clear spotlight rather than being an afterthought with underserved content the way something like Splatoon 2 was. Splatoon 3 representation being regulated to supplement like songs and spirits, TOTK getting an obligatory stage and a couple slight mostly aesthetic tweaks to Link, Xenoblade 3 missing the boat and needing to wait its turn or get ignored... all of this sounds a little familiar. I think I'd rather just not see Ultimate's cycle run its course a second time. I'm hungrier for something new.

Forgot about Splatoon 2 and Splatoon 3. The latter is a 2017 game, so both would also get a lot more stuff, including a character probably.

But yeah, that does just amount to 4 newcomers all in all + a couple not from the Switch era and some 3rd parties...there's still a decent chunk of the newcomer roster that's a big question mark at that point assuming we go back to having ~15 of them.

 

[Gengar84]

I’m curious who specifically people would like to see from the last few years. The main one everyone seems to agree on is Noah and/or Mio from Xenoblade 3. I’m not sure many people are clamoring for Rauru, Elfis, or Alear, though I think each could be cool if they were added. Then there’s Oatchi from Pikmin people bring up but I don’t know enough about Pikmin to know how much sense it makes as a Smash fighter. I personally think Elfis could be an awesome Smash fighter but Bandana Dee is the clear favorite among most Smash fans.

 

[Scrimblo Bimblo]

I've acknowledged multiple times that I think its possible. I was expressing why it would be a pretty notable change of course for how the series has handled itself over the years, and why I personally think it would be a mistake and I initially presented my viewpoint with 'I hope that isn't the case'. But you're welcome to feel how you want to feel about it, without acting like I'm treating it like some ultimatum any more than you are.

I just think you're underselling how this has been quite a consistent routine through Smash's lifespan, I also think 2021-2026 or 2027 is a fairly long production cycle for Smash Bros. I don't think Smash will be a launch title. It's possible that Sakurai overlapped development on two projects. I also think the Studio S stuff, manifesting in 2023, is more indicative of the fact that Smash will eventually exist and not necessarily that production began two years prior. Which is something all of us pretty much agree on one way or the other.

Yeah, sorry, I wasn't really talking about you. Just the general mood that seems to be here.
I thought people would have been HYPED when it was suggested Smash might have been in the works for quite a while already.

Sakurai directing two projects at once seems impossible to me. Or at least, I hope for him that that isn't the case. There's plenty of documentation about how thorough he is with Smash (and he even ended up in hospital a couple of times), directing another game at the same time means that he either found the way to make days 48 hours long or that he's not giving his full attention to either project, which doesn't seem like his style.
Either way, something like this might have happened in the '90s, but with the scope modern games have I think it really is impossible. I'm trynig to think of game directors that recently have directed two games at once and nothing comes to my mind.
Him making a quick project before delving into Smash is way more likely. But that would have been released by now.
If Studio S has been making Smash since 2023, the only option aside from Sakurai's project just being Smash is that they're making Smash without him. Or, well, they're not making Smash at all.

But anyways yeah, I don't think that the project plan being first redacted in 2021 spells doom for every single bit of late Switch content.
And anyways all of TotK, Pikmin 4, Xenoblade 3, Engage, Dread, Splatoon 3, FDC and Wonder getting a character probably wouldn't happen even if they started thinking about the game right now. I don't want to be dismissive but not even Smash 4 was laser-focused on recent stuff to such an extent. And what character would Wonder even get? How likely actually is a one-off villain like Raven Beak? Are we sure that Sakurai sees the X factor in Oatchi or in Ayumi, or that they're not scared by the initial reactions to Byleth?
They'll probably pick and choose some stuff from these games like they always do, regardless of when they first started to draft the game.

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

Just read the last page since I just hopped on, and...

You guys do realize the Switch announcement happened at 8:30 PM EST, right? And then the trailer happened the following morning?

I mean I don't know that I believe the rumors from Nate and apparently Pyoro, but I have no idea why you guys are saying it's already dead lmao

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

I’m curious who specifically people would like to see from the last few years. The main one everyone seems to agree on is Noah and/or Mio from Xenoblade 3. I’m not sure many people are clamoring for Rauru, Elfis, or Alear, though I think each could be cool if they were added. Then there’s Oachi from Pikmin people bring up but I don’t know enough about Pikmin to know how much sense it makes as a Smash fighter.

I forgot how late Kirby and the Forgotten Land came out, though I think the more likely Kirby editions are at least older than it and don't radically change them, so I think the game still boosts their chances.

As for Oatchi, King Sonnn DeDeDoo made a great visual representation on what Oatchi could play like. I have to go, so I can't find if for you, but if you're interested, it's worth the search.

 

[SubspaceJigglypuff]

You guys do realize the Switch announcement happened at 8:30 PM EST, right? And then the trailer happened the following morning?

Also it's like 4 AM in Japan, they're not gonna make a console announcement when most of their home country is sleeping

 

[Ivander]

Just read the last page since I just hopped on, and...

You guys do realize the Switch announcement happened at 8:30 PM EST, right? And then the trailer happened the following morning?

I mean I don't know that I believe the rumors from Nate and apparently Pyoro, but I have no idea why you guys are saying it's already dead lmao

As the wise Bob Parr once said, "It will happen when it happens."

 

[pitchfulprocessing]

I just think you're underselling how this has been quite a consistent routine through Smash's lifespan, I also think 2021-2026 or 2027 is a fairly long production cycle for Smash Bros.

I don't think the game Sakurai was talking about is Smash, but I would say that I wouldn't be really surprised if it has this kind of production cycle. If the game began full production in early 2022 and released sometime late 2026 it would be a roughly 4.5 year development cycle. That's a lot, but an increase in dev time would have to be expected. From everything we know it seems like the Switch to the Switch 2 will be a pretty substantial hardware leap that necessitates greater manpower and longer devtimes, that's something Nintendo has publically talked about.

Previous Smash games have been able to leverage asset reuse to mitigate this, combined with devtimes in general being shorter as you go further back, but it seems like it would be notably more difficult to do this for a console with as notable a leap as the Switch to the Switch 2. The Wii U was also a very substantial jump, going from the Wii to an HD console, and I think it's notable there that Smash 4's credits have almost double the amount of staff as Brawl's credits (obviously a good chunk of those aren't direct staff members, but that applies to both), working with the Tekken Project devs who have experience with fighting games. Even accounting for the 3DS version being developed simultaneously, it's pretty easy to see it needed a big jump, and we're looking at possibly an even bigger hardware leap in an era where game dev times are already increasing. I could see many possibilities for a new Smash's direction that would end up necessitating such a prolonged dev cycle, and I think that's something in general you would have to get used to for Nintendo games. Of course, there's other possibilities, like I said I don't think the 2021 game is Smash, but I don't think a 4 or 5 year dev cycle would be unusual at all.

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

I don't think the game Sakurai was talking about is Smash, but I would say that I wouldn't be really surprised if it has this kind of production cycle. If the game began full production in early 2022 and released sometime late 2026 it would be a roughly 4.5 year development cycle. That's a lot, but an increase in dev time would have to be expected. From everything we know it seems like the Switch to the Switch 2 will be a pretty substantial hardware leap that necessitates greater manpower and longer devtimes, that's something Nintendo has publically talked about.

Previous Smash games have been able to leverage asset reuse to mitigate this, combined with devtimes in general being shorter as you go further back, but it seems like it would be notably more difficult to do this for a console with as notable a leap as the Switch to the Switch 2. The Wii U was also a very substantial jump, going from the Wii to an HD console, and I think it's notable there that Smash 4's credits have almost double the amount of staff as Brawl's credits (obviously a good chunk of those aren't direct staff members, but that applies to both), working with the Tekken Project devs who have experience with fighting games. Even accounting for the 3DS version being developed simultaneously, it's pretty easy to see it needed a big jump, and we're looking at possibly an even bigger hardware leap in an era where game dev times are already increasing. I could see many possibilities for a new Smash's direction that would end up necessitating such a prolonged dev cycle, and I think that's something in general you would have to get used to for Nintendo games. Of course, there's other possibilities, like I said I don't think the 2021 game is Smash, but I don't think a 4 or 5 year dev cycle would be unusual at all.

I think it's normal to expect the dev time to go up with the proposed graphical jump of the Switch 2 but I don't know that I expect it to nearly double from Ultimate's February 2016 to December 2018 to four and a half years, especially when Namco has now created two dedicated studios for Nintendo collaboration projects, of which Smash would likely be very high priority lol

 

[pitchfulprocessing]

I think it's normal to expect the dev time to go up with the proposed graphical jump of the Switch 2 but I don't know that I expect it to nearly double from Ultimate's February 2016 to December 2018 to four and a half years, especially when Namco has now created two dedicated studios for Nintendo collaboration projects, of which Smash would likely be very high priority lol

I think it would basically primarily depend on how many assets can be leveraged, which is an unknown variable. Ultimate has a lot of new assets such as redone stages, but it also has a massive chunk reused, Sakurai himself has said that the game's scope was only possible due to retaining the exact same team between two consoles with similar hardware and immediately begining development after Wii U ended, and even then the game is notably lacking in features which would later be added in updates. Every Smash game has had heavy asset reuse, see the Brawl stages in 4, but this would be going from a basically PS3 level console to a PS4 level one when dev times are already increasing and lower quality assets are more noticeable. How much can be reused is hard to say and I wouldn't be shocked to see a 3 year dev cycle, but I also think it wouldn't be too strange for it to end up in a situation where if you want a new fresh fully featured game for the new system, you'd be brushing up on a half-decade dev cycle. It's not exactly something Nintendo would be bothered by if Smash still ended up relatively early in the Switch 2's life-cycle, like 2026.

 

[Guynamednelson]

lower quality assets are more noticeable

I think that'd be more of an issue if Smash's camera were closer to the screen. Like, I've said before that I think Chrom's model is only "close to" fighter quality, not actually 1:1 with what fighter models are supposed to be

But you only see it in close-ups like this which don't reflect how far away the camera actually is during gameplay. He might need his model updated, but the rest of Ultimate's newcomers not so much. Except for Inkling, for the sake of giving them Splatoon 2-3-era outfits rather than them being too low-poly.

 

[DarthEnderX]

I’m curious who specifically people would like to see from the last few years.

TotK Ganondorf.

End list.